Ashbringer he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Author Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) LG84 Night 1: No More Atashments It didn't take long for panic to set in. The diplomats tried to continue their negotiations, but between the whispers of sedition and the frequent travels to and from more secret conferences of the empires, it didn't take long for them to gather two individuals. Levin Adventure, the stranger from some distant country, and General Manager Atashbringer, who claimed to be a moderator of the negotiations and help with the rules. Neither sat well with the untrusting group. As they were about to decide what to do, Atashbringer threw an accusation at Levin. Someone threw a punch in return. And before anyone knew what had really happened, Atashbringer was lying on the sand broken. And when they carefully searched his pockets, all that was found was a Teo symbol, but no diplomatic documents. There were infiltrators after all. But when the diplomats looked up, Levin was nowhere to be seen. Archer was executed! They were a Regular Disruptor within the Teo Empire! Thaidakar the Ghostblood was executed! They were a Regular Diplomat within the Fjordell Empire! Vote Count: Archer (5): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Experience, Devotary of Spontaneity Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ| Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood Amanuensis (1): Archer Real Vote Count: Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ| Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood Amanuensis (1): Archer Tani (1): Experience GM NOTE: @StrikerEZ's vote shift occurred at 12:00 PM and was ruled to be past the End of Day, and thus was not counted. I also believe @The Sibling has not posted yet - I don't have an activity filter right now but I'll likely decide on one by D2. (Edit: same with @Orlok Tsubodai) OTHER GM NOTE: ... I messed up. The final vote count should have been a tie, and from trying to figure out if Striker made it a tie I flipped a coin to see who'd get executed, and the coin picked Thaidakar. So Elbereth and I decided the fairest thing to do is 1) Thaidakar should also be executed and 2) future vote ties would also result in all tied parties being executed. The Night Turn will end on April 4th at 12:00 PM PDT / 7:00 PM GMT. Player List: Spoiler Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Levin Adventure - Fjordell Regular Diplomat @JNV - Eshena @Matrim's Dice - Philico @StrikerEZ - Dior Braondo Archer - General Manager Atashbringer - Teo Regular Disruptor @Illwei - please @The Baker - @The Sibling - Lyric @Bort - Bortington the Blind @Tani - Mehelin @Kasimir - Kesan Acheris @Amanuensis - Jotaon Josteor @Devotary of Spontaneity - Dahlia @Araris Valerian - Araolis @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke @shadow1 @|TJ| - Bark @Experience - Zara Edited April 3, 2022 by Ashbringer aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah 3
Mat he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Huh Edit: Missed Kas’ post and onward when making my last one, will go back and look and hopefully make more conclusions than I made last cycle Edit2: Obviously Thaid looks pretty clear, and Striker looks pretty bad as well. I might look the worse coming off of this, which is funny. Aman’s decently clear. Resisting the urge to clear the entire Archer wagon but I… kind of… want to :P. Edit3: I guess I don’t see any motivation for a late bus there. Kas’ vote almost never comes from an elim, I don’t know shadow’s meta but I’m decently sure her vote came lateish when the vote was tiedish. Devo could be an elim with a role but it’s impossible to tell with self pres. Still don’t remember when Exp voted but iirc he looked like not e/e with Archer Edit4: If I had to rank in order of least likely busser to most likely I’d say Aman->Kas->Exp->shadow with Devo as a shrug because self pres Edited April 3, 2022 by Matrim's Dice
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I also believe @The Sibling has not posted yet - I don't have an activity filter right now but I'll likely decide on one by D2. It pains me to say this, but neither has Orlok, if you're tracking. Unless I missed something. 22 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Kas’ vote almost never comes from an elim I'm interested in how you get this conclusion. 23 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Archer was executed! They were a Regular Disruptor within the Teod Empire! Increasing my V!Aman credences here. Also, thank the gods I sat down and thought it through... holy chull like sure, Devo/Archer could be E/E still I guess (? - Don't know if I'd put high probability on that) but holy chull that feels so close o_O Instant sus on Striker for that late vote on Thaid, coming so quickly after Archer's seeming self-pres.
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said: Well Guess I was wrong about Archer. Striker I know we can't vote at night, but I'm making my current stance very clear :eyes:
Experience he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Just going to say Aman and JNV look better from doc stuff with Archer flipping Elim. One problem though. @AshbringerI know I would have most likely switched back to Archer if I had been on at rollover, but my last vote was on Tani? (Unless I forgot that I switched it back?) EDIT: @The Baker, any reasons for your Thaid vote? And thoughts about the first day of the game? Edited April 3, 2022 by Experience
Ashbringer he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Author Posted April 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Experience said: but my last vote was on Tani? ... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: ... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Oh no :joy: Uh, what happens now?
shadow1 she/her Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 I do love how my vote is on point when I just read through the thread a couple hours before deadline and place a vote on the person whose play seems generally the most problematic, instead of overthinking and reading into random minor things with obscure lines of reasoning. There's something to it Good job team! @Striker, I have some questions about your reasoning given here: "Anyway, not a fan of this Archer exe appearing out of nowhere. I like Archer’s posts. Thaidakar since a Devo exe isn’t happening." I have a few questions. Firstly, what about the archer exe appearing "out of nowhere" made it look particularly problematic to you? Second, why did you like archer's posts - can you flag some in specific that you liked and thought were townie? And third, what's your understanding of the thai case that made him a plausible scum to you? What you posted just then is very vague and general, so I'd like to know some actual posts that informed these preferences. Also I am assuming nightposting is allowed here since everyone is doing it though I've never played with that before. It's fun!
Elbereth she/her Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Announcement: after some discussion, Ash and I have decided that the fairest thing to do would be to have Thaid and Archer both die, and to change the rules so that ties now kill all parties involved. The OP is/will be updated with the correct vote count and with Thaid’s death, and the tie change has been edited into the original rules. Thanks for your patience, everyone. Also, hi, I’m your friendly IM, reminding you that you can always come to me with issues or concerns Edited April 3, 2022 by Elbereth 3
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Ngl I am extremely surprised that happened ...So who bussed? XD ED1T: Tbh gonna assume pure votes until someone gives me a reason to believe otherwise (not that I expect to live much longer) @Kasimir ty for backing me up bro. I probably need to start trusting my instincts more and second guess myself less. @shadow1 gah if it weren't for the game we met in I would hard trust you for this but like, does w!Shadow bus a teammate D1 twice in a row? Crazy if so, and this time you didn't pocket me so, probably town fog of war / similar instincts? Edited April 3, 2022 by Amanuensis
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Ngl I am extremely surprised that happened ...So who bussed? XD Would be surprising to me if Shadow did, FWIW. Leave that to your read as you have prior play history with her which I lacked but since she returned, I was going through my thoughts on Archer v Devo in the Empire doc, and she was the factor that tipped me into just gunning for Archer.
shadow1 she/her Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Ngl I am extremely surprised that happened ...So who bussed? XD Well not me, you know I would NEVER 1
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: @Kasimir ty for backing me up bro. I probably need to start trusting my instincts more and second guess myself less. @shadow1 gah if it weren't for the game we met in I would hard trust you for this but like, does w!Shadow bus a teammate D1 twice in a row? Crazy if so, and this time you didn't pocket me so, probably town fog of war / similar instincts? See you in the dead doc, Village bro The issue for me with Shadow bus is she didn't just vote on Archer, she did talk my thoughts through with me and was the last straw that convinced me to shift to Archer. That, and Archer trying to sus you and Exp and theorising a you-Exp team which I just didn't see at that point. Sure, maybe Shadow puts a vote of her own, but that itself wouldn't kill Archer. I am willing to accept she might have pocketed me because the in doc mindmeld early on honestly has me screaming in internal fear/paranoia, but at the same time - does E!Shadow not just present the third vote on Archer but also talk me onto Archer? Her view was that Devo's vote is ? but the Archer train was good. I eventually agreed after thinking things through doc wall screaming about having under an hour to decide who I distrusted more.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Lol I just edited in thoughts for the both of you I cannot tell if Archer saying "Because the Experience fake claiming evil reaction test was planned in our doc and we must have a mole, we can't trust any data learned from it" was supposed to protect e!Devo or implicate v!Devo after Archer's death. I kinda feel like e!Striker would not have voted Thaid over Archer? But maybe I just hope that I nailed my v!Striker read from his response to my initial vote of him, cause that felt actually pure to me compared to other stuff being said as pure. I'm unironically worried that Experience is E/E with Archer for the latter trying to tie the former to me but tinfoil is too flimsy right now, willing to shelve that until a lylo situation @Kasimir for context the game Shadow and I met in was that neighbor game I told you about. She was an elim and convinced her town neighbor (basically 2 person Empire) to vote on her only teammate, who happened to be my neighbor, and managed to ride that credit all the way to victory in the end. So basically, what you just described is totally within her elimrange hahaha. But idk if she does it twice in a row, especially with illwei and I both being in that game and this one, plus she is a very similar Villager to me based on convos we have had so very much possible the same things that pinged my radar also pinged hers But just want to say holy chull, is this 4 games in a row now that we have D1'd an elim? Also RIP Thaid. We may need to avoid ties in the future now, unless we decide to ever two birds one stone. If the elims have a Forger then they have just become exceptionally stronger too. ED1T: @Ashbringer btw sorry about the triple vote confusion, I did indeed want to true vote Archer (hence putting him last) but I can avoid the multivoting thing in the future, just thought it was a neat trick in QF59 for spreading around the pressure. Edited April 3, 2022 by Amanuensis
Ashbringer he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Author Posted April 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: @Ashbringer btw sorry about the triple vote confusion, I did indeed want to true vote Archer (hence putting him last) but I can avoid the multivoting thing in the future, just thought it was a neat trick in QF59 for spreading around the pressure. I'll just take whatever's last, but I'd prefer if you didn't vote multiple times on the same line of text, that got confusing. And Ash is already very confused
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: So basically, what you just described is totally within her elimrange hahaha. But idk if she does it twice in a row, especially with illwei and I both being in that game and this one, plus she is a very similar Villager to me based on convos we have had so very much possible the same things that pinged my radar also pinged hers Noted, thanks for the context! In that case - I'm okay with a provisional light Village read on her but will keep in mind as long as I'm alive that I should be revising that read. Wary respect from me, but as you said, that's the curse of good play 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: But just want to say holy chull, is this 4 games in a row now that we have D1'd an elim? No? LG83 had no Elim D1. As far as I can recall, QF59 was the first, then MR57, then this one. Unless there's a game I'm forgetting about. 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Also RIP Thaid. We may need to avoid ties in the future now, unless we decide to ever two birds one stone. If the elims have a Forger then they have just become exceptionally stronger too. Agreed. Mid-cycle ties are okay, but end-cycle just allows them free kills. If they do have a Forger, I assume the Forger didn't decide to play their hand today, because Archer could have been saved with one, IMO. 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I cannot tell if Archer saying "Because the Experience fake claiming evil reaction test was planned in our doc and we must have a mole, we can't trust any data learned from it" was supposed to protect e!Devo or implicate v!Devo after Archer's death. That point ironically pushes me a bit off Devo, yeah. I'm still wary of Bort, but given Archer's non-reaction to Exp, I am more inclined to suspect non-reaction here. But I should probably relook at the whole situation. My views on Devo's response being an anomaly still stand, but I'm just glad I looked past getting tilted by it and onto everything else. What I will say is this: Evil being aware something is bait definitely doesn't change the fact their reactions are off. You were the prime example in Meerkat - you knew it was bait, and you therefore deliberately voted for Meerkat without hesitation or question. That knowledge and your alignment TMI produced that result, but it didn't change the fact that it was inherently suspicious that a player of your calibre would unquestioningly vote Meerkat without asking anything at all about the impossible circumstances of the gambit. (Again, acknowledge Orlok did that too, but Orlok had the advantage of having more or less earned Meerkat's trust from a couple of PMs And Orlok's PM behaviour regarding that Meerkat gambit was still less suspicious on the whole as compared to your complete disinterest.) The short of it is that I feel if there were Evil responses, our projections might be off, but I expect them to still be anomalies. That's partly why despite thinking the test was so tainted, I have been :| about Devo's response in particular. Again, accept it may be a tunnel. That's why I talked it out with Shadow, and hope to get more inputs. 16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I kinda feel like e!Striker would not have voted Thaid over Archer? But maybe I just hope that I nailed my v!Striker read from his response to my initial vote of him, cause that felt actually pure to me compared to other stuff being said as pure. I'm a pure vote analyst bro, you know this :/ So I dislike it, and I feel that I dislike how close it comes to Archer's self-pres, wondering if there's any coordination there since they both went on the same train and it takes Devo out of contention. Mat switching to Thaid suddenly in a naked vote doesn't make me any happier though :| Edited April 3, 2022 by Kasimir
StrikerEZ he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 Just gonna say that I’m glad my vote led to ties killing multiple people Though I am very sorry that it led to Ash having to go through so much stress. Anyway, I thought Archer was good because for once I didn’t read his posts and think they were bad. And I thought the Archer votes were an attempt at a counter wagon to save Thaid, who’d gotten a lot of pressure throughout the day. In comparison to Archer who got pressured just at the end. Or at least that’s how it felt to me.
Mat he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Kasimir said: I'm interested in how you get this conclusion. You made a 4-3 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead a 5-2 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead (technically 5-3 [Archer/Thaid] and double technically 4-4 [Archer/Thaid], but >> and that's not how the VC right before your post appeared, and I missed Exp's switch as well, so this point might not even be valid anymore depending on how you kept up with the VC) Essentially I came to this conclusion because you (appeared to) widen the gap between a conf elim and a countertrain to said elim. 2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: Well Guess I was wrong about Archer. This reads extremely village tonally to me because I absolutely sympathize with it :P. 11 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Mat switching to Thaid suddenly in a naked vote doesn't make me any happier though :| Well, I read Thaid as more evil than Archer or Devo, so I switched :D. Which ages extremely well, I know.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) I can believe that tbh. It's kind of a skewed understanding of the day since Thaid really didn't get any pressure, just a bunch of naked votes because jokes, and Devo was the most viable counterwagon for actual reasons, so imo the only way Striker works on a team with Archer if the team is Archer/Devo/Striker + maybe Mat since I still suspect him and he also works on a team with Archer. ED1T: Lmao ninja'd by Matrim giving me more reason to think he's on a team with Striker. Plus Mat voted Bort over Devotary before going to Thaid Inb4 that's the 4 player team and we solved this D1, GG folks ED2T: I'm joking btw, it's never that simple Edited April 4, 2022 by Amanuensis
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: You made a 4-3 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead a 5-2 [Archer/Devo] with an elim in the lead (technically 5-3 [Archer/Thaid] and double technically 4-4 [Archer/Thaid], but >> and that's not how the VC right before your post appeared, and I missed Exp's switch as well, so this point might not even be valid anymore depending on how you kept up with the VC) Essentially I came to this conclusion because you (appeared to) widen the gap between a conf elim and a countertrain to said elim. If it helps any (which it doesn't), I wasn't paying attention to the votes beyond Ash's count here. Was aware that Devo's vote pushed the Archer train up top but felt that the potential presence of a Forger and potential self-pres from Archer meant I should make a serious decision about whether I preferred to kill Devo or Archer. Eventually I just settled on Archer (shout out to Shadow here, even if she might be Evil!) and just YOLO voted. 5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: imo the only way Striker works on a team with Archer if the team is Archer/Devo/Striker + maybe Mat since I still suspect him and he also works on a team with Archer. Bro. I need help. The tunnel is too dark and too deep because part of me is low key willing to buy this, and part of me just really wants to pressure Bort because my reasons have not changed with regard to Bort :|
Mat he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Lmao ninja'd by Matrim giving me more reason to think he's on a team with Striker. Plus Mat voted Bort over Devotary before going to Thaid Inb4 that's the 4 player team and we solved this D1, GG folks I'm sad that you think I would play elim this obviously 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: If it helps any (which it doesn't), I wasn't paying attention to the votes beyond Ash's count here. I mean, it kinda does. If that's your working assumption about the votes then that makes the widening of the gap I described a reason that works. I think you picking Archer over Devo at EoD implies v!you unless Devo is an elim with a role that's worth picking Archer over.
Experience he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 Okay, so time to come clean. I did claim Elim in order to get reactions (and reactions I got). We discussed it a little bit in the doc so Archer knew about it. Archer brought up the point in thread that my gambit was useless because elims knew and therefore wouldnt be able to slip about it. First off, while yes technically the elims might have already known about it right after I posted, there's a chance that the first few responses to me were without that knowledge. Also, even if we couldn't get straight Elim tells, it is still possible to get village reactions and reactions that appear to be fake village. Another thought I had to why Archer might bring this point up. If an elim had gotten caught in my trap, he might have been trying to mislead us by saying that it never would have caught one. Now if we look at the vote I'm first going to look at those that ended up voting along with Archer on Thaid. That would be Mat, TJ, and Baker. We don't have anything really for bakers reasoning so gonna gloss over him for the moment. After going through Mats and TJ's posts, I have a few questions for you guys regarding reads. You don't need to go deep into reasons, mostly just wondering where you stand on these players. @Matrim's Dice. Thoughts on Aman, Bort, Striker, Myself, Kas, and Araris? @|TJ|. Thoughts on Devo, Bort, Striker, Aman, Kas, JNV, and Araris? Now I'm going to go through posts of those who voted on Archer to figure out how likely I think a bus is, but it will take a while because both Kas and Aman have quite a lot of posts.
Kasimir he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: I mean, it kinda does. If that's your working assumption about the votes then that makes the widening of the gap I described a reason that works. I think you picking Archer over Devo at EoD implies v!you unless Devo is an elim with a role that's worth picking Archer over. Thing is, if I'm Evil, am I lying about my assumption in a way that would make me seem more Village? Because just to be clear, QF59 Evil Kas absolutely bussed Striker last minute and then cooked up an audacious lie about having planned to do that all along. It's absolutely within me to lie about that, at the very least, though I feel I don't get much credit for it either way...eh, whatever, only so many self-paranoia rabbit holes I can do tonight. So it fundamentally doesn't really help, which is the point I'm really making and am aware of, because you only have my word for it. Anyway, my relative lack of attention to the votes beyond 'kill Archer pls' is signalled by the fact I've just realised I'm asking in my Empire doc why Archer didn't self-pres on Devo (how embarrassing...) because in retrospect, that doesn't really work once my vote went off Devo, making the Thaid train the only viable CW, though that was very last minute. 3 minutes ago, Experience said: Okay, so time to come clean. I did claim Elim in order to get reactions (and reactions I got). We discussed it a little bit in the doc so Archer knew about it. Archer brought up the point in thread that my gambit was useless because elims knew and therefore wouldnt be able to slip about it. First off, while yes technically the elims might have already known about it right after I posted, there's a chance that the first few responses to me were without that knowledge. Also, even if we couldn't get straight Elim tells, it is still possible to get village reactions and reactions that appear to be fake village. = Me: Here's a list of reasons why this was poorly done, and Exp's analysis of this doesn't make sense. Exp: Nothing happened here.
Experience he/him Posted April 3, 2022 Posted April 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Me: Here's a list of reasons why this was poorly done, and Exp's analysis of this doesn't make sense. Exp: Nothing happened here. Not exactly sure what you're saying here...
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