Long Game 84: A Sel United

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Re: my tierslist, I'll just be updating it frequently with little immediate explanation based off of things I see; players may shift up and down frequently as the game progresses and I continously reassess, tho I also might place some higher or lower than how I actually view them for reasons I will eventually reveal. I'll make sure to leave a finalized legacy (will) every night turn that thoroughly explains my entire (honest) world view so that should I die, the village has something to look back at.

 

Can live with that - main question in my head is if you intend to intervene if a strong (or moderately strong, for a given threshold I suppose) actual Village read of yours looks like they're going to be MLed? Am aware of what you are doing and why, but am interested into the extent you're committing to this and your internal calculus right now.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Also I heckin love this emoticon ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

There's a fun video with it I've dumped in my doc! But IDK if it's SFS (Safe For Shard) because YouTube and someone swore in one of the video comments even though it's frickin' awesome >>

Thaid Devo

Edited to add:

3 hours ago, Bort said:

"This. Us... Me. I was young and foolish, part of the Jeskeri, so my Mother had me poisoned, my Father led the mob that threw me into Elantris, and I met a very strange individual in there who told everyone I was evil and had me killed. For the first time. Then I learned so much more about the Cosmere, met you and we Bonded, grew the most magnificent beard of all," Luna nodded in agreement, "and all of our fun and crazy adventures we've had since. I wouldn't mind if they didn't involve dying so much though."

@little wilson was justified, #changemyview

Edited April 2, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ookla the Destined]

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If anything, I think *one* point of the docs is to replace PMs. It allows players to communicate outside of the public, to work together in secret (of other empires if no information leaks via elims), and to keep each other accountable in smaller microcosms.

I think they do replace PMs, yeah. Don't think I've ever seen a game where everyone publicly claimed all their PMs in thread ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I personally find your RNG assumption fairly naive, if not intentionally misleading. I doubt the docs were "true RNGd" in the way you seem to be implying since that could potentially lead to every elim being in a single doc or 2+ docs being completely free of elim influence, which could easily throw the game balance completely out of whack.

It may be naive. This is the first time I've had the chance to sit down at a computer and really think about the game, since I had a fairly hectic day yesterday, but I don't understand how it could be misleading. 'Misleading' implies that the secrecy option is directly harmful, when everything accomplished by wide-spread claiming can be accomplished by a single emissary.

Edit: Also going to further clarify about the RNG- I imagine it went down similar to the normal process for randing the alignments- the GM does a few options and picks the best one. Most of the time that results in an average game, but sometimes Orlok and Kas are elims together, sometimes people get 6 elim games in a row, RNG messes with you  I think with four docs and four elims there's a doc with 2, a doc with 0, and two docs with 1, but that's based on literally nothing mathematical.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Matrim. Can you state five reasons why keeping the Empire rosters a secret is beneficial to the Village? If you can't state five, state as many as you can; or if you can state more, please state them all.

I think this is an absurd request when I definitely haven't seen five reasons in favor of publicizing the Emipre rosters, so no, I won't start listing reasons. I've made my case. I'm not going to ask for five reasons from you, either, because I'm sure you could come up with something and we don't need to go there- that's not the point. I'm sure it's helpful if everyone's Empire is known, I'm sure it's helpful if they're not. They're both helpful in different ways, and I prefer keeping it hidden. This isn't a right answer/wrong answer situation, just like using the Fang early vs. using the Fang later.

I think it's funny that you think differing opinions about this is enough for a vote :P.

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm curious to see if this is a 'you haven't thought about the topic deeply, but this is what your instincts say' situation or a 'it would be inconvenient for my team (Disruptors) if this info got out' thing.

It's definitely the first- like I said, just woke up after a hectic mobile-limited afternoon/evening- but I don't like how this implies there's a correct answer to this question, because I don't think there is. As I've mentioned, there's upsides and downsides to both, my instincts like keeping it relatively secret. 

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Matrim. Please gib words to accept.

smh they came as fast as they could, I was sleeping  

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

therefore I wholly support each faction to share as much as they wish. 

...........so why the heck are you voting me for suggesting a level of said sharing xD Obviously I can't stop everyone if they want to share their members, and if the rest of my Empire does as well, I will go along with that. There's upsides to both.

Other thoughts on the gamestate

• Voted Thaid half as a joke, half because it makes some amount of sense- I don't think they've cared about votes on them ever before, at least not like this. Change in playstyle may equal change in alignment? Also a fraction of self pres going on here, apparently >>
• I do like Aman's approach to the game thus far, and I like how his first vote on me didn't stick even to a single post.
• Striker's vote does read like opportunistic elim Striker to me, but we'll see if that vote sticks.
• Archer/Thaid not e/e
• I should reread the thread because I probably missed a lot yesterday

Edited April 2, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[JNV]

10 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I also am under the assumption that the docs were true RNGd and so I don’t think the elims are equally spread throughout them. I don’t think we can clear people based on being in an Empire with one or two elims.

Ok so I made a program actually two programs one without size constraints on empires one with odds dictated by empire size ok actually 3 programs the first one and two with empire size one ofr 4 4 5 5 one for 3 4 5 6 I assumed 4 elims for thsi I could run it again with 3 or 5 but Im leaving it for now heres the results sim 1 doesnt account for numbers sim 2 assumes 4 4 5 5 sim 3 assumes 3 4 5 6

Simulation #1
[0, 0, 0, 4] - 1.6%
[0, 0, 1, 3] - 18.8%
[0, 0, 2, 2] - 14.1%
[0, 1, 1, 2] - 56.2%
[1, 1, 1, 1] - 9.4%

Simulation #2
[0, 0, 0, 4] - 0.4%
[0, 0, 1, 3] - 12.1%
[0, 0, 2, 2] - 12.3%
[0, 1, 1, 2] - 62.2%
[1, 1, 1, 1] - 13.0%

Simulation #3
[0, 0, 0, 4] - 0.7%
[0, 0, 1, 3] - 14.4%
[0, 0, 2, 2] - 12.8%
[0, 1, 1, 2] - 60.3%
[1, 1, 1, 1] - 11.8%

so yeah for true RNG I guess two clear groups is a lot more likely than I thought but most likely  0 1 1 2 and now my computer's melting probably shouldnt have done 1000000 trials each for data collecting one sec Ill be back

Ok back now computer is not melted yay

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

ILU TOO YOU'RE AMAZING YOU DO YOU JNV

my docs are fancy indeed i am fancypants HEAR ME RAWR

u r cool too and the nap helped I am less hyper now I swear

looking forward to seeing your empire doc after the game! and everyone's! but right here right now

LET'S HAVE A GOOD TIME EVERYONE!!!

Ill drnink to that but apple juice not alcohol alcohol sucks raise your glass for a toast heres to Kasimir heres to fancy docs heres to the great and glorious empire heres to having a good time!

3 hours ago, Bort said:

Some slight trolling suspicion of JNV and Kas about Kas doing up some doc that impressed JNV, but apparently not their Empire doc. Elim doc maybe?

I know of Kasimirs doc skills from someone else in the dead doc in some QF I was trying to get the outline to line up but it wasnt working and someone said 'oh Kasimir is a doc wizard' or something like that theyre a cool guy and youre also pretty cool I like your beard that I cant see 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think they do replace PMs, yeah. Don't think I've ever seen a game where everyone publicly claimed all their PMs in thread ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

I mean do people not say 'oh I have a PM with so and so they said this so I read them this' 

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...........so why the heck are you voting me for suggesting a level of said sharing xD Obviously I can't stop everyone if they want to share their members, and if the rest of my Empire does as well, I will go along with that. There's upsides to both.

Are you willing to share you rempires current thoughts on sharing their ranks if not thats fine just curious

 

So about Thaidakar I could see but also they do tend to be a little more engaged C1 than other cycles so its hard to get a playstyle read on their current actions and the way all the votes just sorta flopped on them seems a bit hmm let me go look at that a bit

So heres the Thaidakar progression

• Thaidakar enters thread
• Archer votes them
• Thaidakar votes Experience
  • I cant figure out what theyre trying to say for reasoning
  • "because of long as *dabs awkwardly*"????
• Kasimir votes Thaidakar
• At this point Thaidakar asks why everyone is voting for them
  • I mean it was just wto votes
  • Then again it was the only other votes at that point
  • But then again again it was like the first moments of the cycle
• Then Matrim votes Thaidakar
  • Can I just say (not just to Matrim to everyone but this was the most convenient bullet point) that votes without reasoning are grrr they are very unhelpful so please try to give reasoning with the vote instead of when asked thanks
• Then the conversaiton switches a bit then Amanuensis votes Thaidakar
• Thaidakar asks for why Amanuensis did it
  • Doesnt ask Kaimir or Matrim 
• Then STriker votes Thaiakar
  • "because why not"
  • Thinks Amanuensis and Matrim are suspicious but votes with them?

I mean if Thaidakar is evil and panicking about getting all these votes that would be kinda funny and if so good job I guess but I kinda feel like theyre not considering how no one is protesting this except for me but then again I dont really have any suspicions other than Matrim for tone in response to Amaneensis asking for 5 resasons but that could just be frustration 

I have to go wont be back for a while see you later have fun without me bye

[Ookla the Shadowed]

Hello, hello! Thank you all for coming together during this meeting to negotiate a treaty between our respective empires. Our Emissary of the Teod Empire has already stepped forward and introduced himself, and I would like to thank him for his words. Although we both are from the same Empire, I am not here to preach the same message that he does now. How can we think to unite together when we aren't even willing to tell each other where we are from? How can we even think of making a treaty, when it will only favor the larger Empires?

I am here to ask all those that think we can combine these very different cultures filled with very, very different people to rethink. I, as Emissary of the Disruptors to this treaty, believe that we can work together for each of the Empires individual needs. There is no need to bow down to other Empires, but instead let us work on our own to all get that which our Empires want most. 

Thank you for listening, and feel free to ask any questions that you may have at this time. I am sure that we will be able to work out a deal that satisfies both of our groups, even if some of you feel that there is no way in Teod that you would work with my group.

[Kasimir]

I genuinely don't think it's pure RNG. RNG results still have to be fundamentally allowed or annulled by a GM, unless you're someone like Gamma who has an utterly insane commitment to RNGesus. The point is, let's flip this around. From a GMing perspective, one Elim per doc is great - it ensures that no doc is able to coordinate in secret without Elim infiltration. Call this world [EVEN DISTRO.] But there's also something great about one or two uninfiltrated docs: first, the Villagers in those docs will paranoid on each other because they don't know that they are uncompromised, and the Elims have to deal with fog-of-war: knowing they lack LoS into that doc(s). Call this world [UNEVEN PARANOIA.]

For Ash's purposes, it suffices that we don't know which world we're in: so on the first level, we can't take having IDed an Elim in a doc as a clear (I guess you could try to do a Bayesian model of how that should affect your Village credences in your other docmates given the Elim execution, and then do it per world assumption but that feels like more work that I want to put in today so @Orlok Tsubodai - thoughts, bro?) And moreover, we don't know which doc within the world we're in (even if we're in some version of [UNEVEN PARANOIA], we don't know if we are the clear doc, or the doc with one or two Elims...)

In the dark fog of our current ignorance, we simply do not have enough information to say prima facie which world we are in, or to make further distro inferences and I'm not inclined to further engage with this other than to keep my possibilities open and to point out that since Empire affiliation is announced for the deceased, each exe and NK will help us better narrow down on the world and distro we inhabit. We should be able to say something a bit less tenuous by C3.

26 minutes ago, JNV said:

Ok so I made a program actually two programs one without size constraints on empires one with odds dictated by empire size ok actually 3 programs the first one and two with empire size one ofr 4 4 5 5 one for 3 4 5 6 I assumed 4 elims for thsi I could run it again with 3 or 5 but Im leaving it for now heres the results sim 1 doesnt account for numbers sim 2 assumes 4 4 5 5 sim 3 assumes 3 4 5 6

Okay, I'm actually impressed that you did this - thanks for the data!

5 minutes ago, Experience said:

I am here to ask all those that think we can combine these very different cultures filled with very, very different people to rethink. I, as Emissary of the Disruptors to this treaty, believe that we can work together for each of the Empires individual needs. There is no need to bow down to other Empires, but instead let us work on our own to all get that which our Empires want most. 

Bro. This is not a faction game. Are you flippin' serious?

Edited April 2, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

or the GMs go, "Bloody hell, Kas is so hyper this is DISTURBING soMeBoDY DO SOMETHING!" but I guess that's not gonna be happening >>

6 hours ago, Bort said:

Did Aman's vote not end up on Striker? @Ashbringer @Amanuensis?

er.. yes, but now it's back on Matrim.

 

• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (2): Matrim's Dice, Archer
• Matrim's Dice (2): Amanuensis, StrikerEZ
• Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir
• Archer (1): Experience
• Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

I hope.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

'Misleading' implies that the secrecy option is directly harmful, when everything accomplished by wide-spread claiming can be accomplished by a single emissary.

I don't think a single emissary can ever be completely objective even if they are village. There will always need to be some interpretation and hence room for misinterpretation, deliberate or otherwise, so we'll at some point end up with members of an empire contradicting their emissary, or I guess everyone in a doc voting on the exact words an emissary will use to reflect their empire's opinion.

Experience, for claiming elim. It's hard to believe an elim would do this but I also don't see a good reason for this to come from a villager.

[The Baker]

Thaid.

 

Spoiler

 

Thaid.

Edited April 2, 2022 by The Baker

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Experience, for claiming elim. It's hard to believe an elim would do this but I also don't see a good reason for this to come from a villager.

*coughs in Gears*

*coughs in some players like kayana RP*

*coughs in Illwei*

*coughs in Salmon Meerkat*

[Ookla the Shadowed]

Just now, Kasimir said:

*coughs in Gears*

*coughs in some players like kayana RP*

*coughs in Illwei*

*coughs in Salmon Meerkat*

*coughs in Experience*

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

*coughs in Gears*

*coughs in some players like kayana RP*

*coughs in Illwei*

*coughs in Salmon Meerkat*

Gears had a pattern of behavior, Illwei I blieve was expressing discontent, and Meerkat had mechanical backing. I don't remember Experience doing anything like this before and just a claim achieves little but set up an IKYK of the type that I hear you like to resolve directly.

[Kasimir]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Gears had a pattern of behavior, Illwei I blieve was expressing discontent, and Meerkat had mechanical backing. I don't remember Experience doing anything like this before and just a claim achieves little but set up an IKYK of the type that I hear you like to resolve directly.

Illwei's done it before pre-AG8 was my point, so that wasn't just dissatisfaction. Exp I've filed in my head as a high chaos player with a high risk threshold, and so I don't consider it terribly odd for that sort of player. I don't even know if it's a IKYK as I've directly heard from players before that they're tempted to RP as an Elim without actually being Evil. Xino sure tried to do that, despite also having failed to successfully convert in LG79. Your vote is causing me to squint more in this context. I'm satisfied with where things are at this point in time.

[Ooklil the Wei]

1 hour ago, JNV said:

votes without reasoning are grrr

I like the new guy

Araris is Village
Mat is village

EDIT:
Anyone claiming village or Elim should just be completely ignored. There's no ikyks around it, you just ignore it all.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Illwei

[Quirksliver]

7 hours ago, Bort said:

For now, I'm going to poke vote @Tani to get her up and in the thread

Tani

I want to say something cool for my first post, but don't know what to say, but if I did, you'd be like that's a cool thing to say for a first post.

So can we all just pretend I said something cool in this post?

[Ooklil the Wei]

1 hour ago, Tani said:

I want to say something cool for my first post, but don't know what to say, but if I did, you'd be like that's a cool thing to say for a first post.

So can we all just pretend I said something cool in this post?

This is either village or e/e with Bort.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Anyone claiming village or Elim should just be completely ignored. There's no ikyks around it, you just ignore it all.

Or you can kill them, to force everyone to ignore them .

[Bort]

2 hours ago, Tani said:

I want to say something cool for my first post, but don't know what to say, but if I did, you'd be like that's a cool thing to say for a first post.

So can we all just pretend I said something cool in this post?

That's so cool! Tani

Shadow - Pokey poke! @shadow1

Edit:

• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, Archer, Baker
• Matrim's Dice (2): Amanuensis, StrikerEZ
• Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir
• Archer (1): Experience
• Experience (2): Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Devotary
• Shadow (1): Bort

Edited April 2, 2022 by Bort

[Araris Valerian]

@Bort, figured I'd let you know that I Officially Frown upon poke votes, and might have to stab vote you if you continue attempting to employ them.

I'm also wondering if anyone has an appetite for joining on Devotary? And if not, perhaps on Bort or Tani?

[Kasimir]

13 minutes ago, Bort said:

That's so cool! Tani

Shadow - Pokey poke! @shadow1

Edit:

• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (3): Matrim's Dice, Archer, Baker
• Matrim's Dice (2): Amanuensis, StrikerEZ
• Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Araris Valerian, Kasimir
• Archer (1): Experience
• Experience (2): Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Devotary
• Shadow (1): Bort

Are you trying to kill her or get her to post?

Edited to add:

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

@Bort, figured I'd let you know that I Officially Frown upon poke votes, and might have to stab vote you if you continue attempting to employ them.

I'm also wondering if anyone has an appetite for joining on Devotary? And if not, perhaps on Bort or Tani?

Weak negative gut on Bort, have already joined on Devo, would probably favour Devo to Bort, but just thought I'd say.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Kasimir

[StrikerEZ]

Devotary of Spontaneity

I am exhausted. I’ll be around for rollover for sure, not sure how much longer I’ll be around for today. I’ve been going non-stop everyday this week, and just finished up. And I might nap. We’ll see

[Ookla the Shadowed]

7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Devotary of Spontaneity

I am exhausted. I’ll be around for rollover for sure, not sure how much longer I’ll be around for today. I’ve been going non-stop everyday this week, and just finished up. And I might nap. We’ll see

Any reason for that vote?

If people initially put reasons for their votes this wouldn't have to be asked all the time.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Experience said:

If people initially put reasons for their votes this wouldn't have to be asked all the time.

Coming from the guy who decided to drop Elim RP without comment, I think you should take a moment to reflect on your own actions  

[Ookla the Shadowed]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Coming from the guy who decided to drop Elim RP without comment, I think you should take a moment to reflect on your own actions  

Reasons will be forthcoming. We thank you for your patience. 

[Bort]

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Bort, figured I'd let you know that I Officially Frown upon poke votes, and might have to stab vote you if you continue attempting to employ them.

I'm also wondering if anyone has an appetite for joining on Devotary? And if not, perhaps on Bort or Tani?

What changed in the past year?

 

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Experience said:

Reasons will be forthcoming. We thank you for your patience. 

8 minutes ago, Experience said:

Any reason for that vote?

If people initially put reasons for their votes this wouldn't have to be asked all the time.

So you presumably claim you are withholding reason for a reason, yet this is unacceptable from others?

I too, would like to know both why Striker is voting (I suspect it's his thing about ties), and why you are doing what you do, but the inherent double standards here does beggar belief.