Long Game 83: The Survivor

[Kasimir he/him]

Me when they kill my ThreadPMBro  

Especially when he was in my stronger Village read tier

3 hours ago, Karnatheon said:

We also have to take into account that any items Ash and Aman had that the elims didn't get were added to the Stockpile too right?

Might as well say this, since he's dead now. Aman started with a Nicrosil vial and used it to boost someone's Bronze scan D1. The player then did a Bronze scan N1 (I know who they are, I'm not outing them.) Aman went for the Hrovell N1 but didn't succeed. N2 logs show no successful D2 item grabs, and stockpile orders are last on OoA so by default, he wouldn't have been able to make a successful grab N2.

Elims got nothing off him.

I would like to grab one of the Shade Gun/Anti-Investiture Knife, and would request that the Village don't fight me on this. I understand Illegal Painrial #2 was used last night to seize the Hrovell from an innocent citizen, and it sure wasn't me as I already confiscated from Orlok during D2. I am happy to deconflict item grabs if there is a preference here.

Personally tempted to go for the Shade Gun.

[---]

32 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Village: Steel, Fifth, TJ, Bip, Illwei, (Tani, Mat)

Took out JNV from the list as I have been unsure about them lately

Tani and Mat in parentheses because they probably need revaluation but I’m willing to trust them tentatively  

edit1: 
Elim: Araris, Karn, Drake, Archer, Szeth?

edit2:

Id like to move TJ to the null pile actually. Know I don’t have one currently but it exists now. 

Why am I a villager?

Why are Archer and Drake Elims? 

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Why am I a villager?

Why are Archer and Drake Elims? 

1) I got a village vibe off Dannex’s two(?) posts about failing/forgetting to grab an item and then insisting they were village because of it and 2) the fact that you outed drake’s reaction test

From my post from last night:

Quote

Green are villagers, blue are my current village reads. I think it's highly unlikely that none of the elims partook in the exes, so by PoE, there has to be at least one elim among Araris, Drake, Karn, Mat, Archer, and Szeth.  

 

[Bort he/him]

6 hours ago, Archer said:

Bort , kinda looks like the elims used a doubler vial to disguise the fact the lost the kill you submitted. Thoughts? 

I might have more thoughts on this if I had submitted a kill order on N1, but I didn't, so you're wrong. Sorry.

The way I see it, there are three ways they could have done this... 2 Steel Vials, 1 Steel/1 Duralumin, or 1 Steel/1 Nicrosil. Meaning the elims either still have a Steel vial and boosted it with a doubler, as you put it, or they used both N1 and N2 vials on N2. This is, of course, assuming that you were right, and that I submitted a kill and was RB'ed as claimed. The only other way an elim kill could have been stopped would be by leeching their Steel away, meaning that they'd only have 1 Steel for N2.

Oh! No! 4 ways, given the GM's rules clarification late last cycle. If the N1 kill was submitted, but delayed, then it wouldn't have applied until N2.

See @Archer? Many ways of doing what they did without me being an elim.

Edit:

Speaking of the rules clarifications, I figured it might be an idea to take a closer look...

• Any actions that can only happen during a specific turn (e.g. kills or vote manipulation) would be delayed to the next available Night or Day turn, depending on the action, if cadmium is used on them.
• One Traitor can submit multiple steel kills, if there are multiple in the Traitor Stockpile.
• If you are roleblocked or redirected and did not take any actions, you will not be told that you were roleblocked or redirected.
• The Thief does count towards the Traitors' wincon. They do not have to kill the Thief, but they do count towards the number of living players that the Traitors have to outnumber.
• One player can link themselves to multiple players with Hrovell Potions, and all of those players will die if the poisoner dies. It does not reflect the other way around. A poisoned player dying will not kill the poisoner.
• Metallurgist/Attractor Fabrials adding items has been moved to the end of the OoA. I don't know why it was where it was originally, and I have been doing that last anyway.
• If a Traitor's kill(s) is(are) delayed via cadmium and they are exed the next Day turn, any steel vials they were using to submit the kill(s) would be available to be given to a player who voted on them and/or added to the Stockpile.
• If Player A does multiple bendalloy bubbles (through having multiple vials or getting boosted), each bubble counts separately. For example, let's assume Player A puts one bubble on Player B and another on Player C. If Player B submits an action on Player A, it will hit the bubble surrounding Player A and C and get randomly redirected. 
• Both nicrosil and duralumin need to be used the turn before you want the extra action.
• Players who are nicrobursted are notified that they have been nicrobursted.
• Redirects and roleblocks do not affect grabbing items from the Stockpile.
• Using copper and zinc at the same time would not prevent your own vote from being cancelled.

So, first item in the list is what I was saying about "point 4" above. Third item may be about the whole roleblock thing of me on N1. I told you guys I didn't know. Seventh item is interesting. We'd have to be lucky to pull it off, but it does mean it's possible to get some Steel for the village.

@StrikerEZ - Some further clarification please.

On Bendalloy bubbles. If Player A puts a Bendalloy bubble around Player B, then Player B did something to Player A, would it still bounce of the Bendalloy bubble, or would it work as they are both inside?

On Nicrosil (and you've probably already answered this one somewhere, but if so I've missed it, sorry), if multiple people Nicrosil the same target, would they be able to stretch out a single vial for all the Nicrosil actions? Or would it not stack like that, and they'd have to use the Nicrosil boosts on different vials?

Edited February 23, 2022 by Bort
Went to copy/paste rules clarifications and added questions

[Kasimir he/him]

On my read of the situation, DeTess and Len in QF30 (thanks to Drake for getting me to read this game - I regret not signing up for it as it looks fun and I liked playing with Monmet, Drought, and Devo in QF29 - it featured an Elim team that consciously withheld the kill to try to win via pacifism) noted it was common in the meta at that time for Elims to withhold a N1 kill in order to force Village roleblockers to out themselves and to force an ML.

I think it'd be weird for an Elim to try framing Bort this early, so my read of the situation is the RB claim is genuine. What's harder to work out in the context of this game with zero penalties apart from tempo in withholding the kill is whether this is or is not lynch-worthy. As I said D2, I minimally think it's worthy of pressure. And I'd rather not the info die with me or the Hazekiller in question.

Here are the posts in question:

DeTess here says:

Quote

There's one more thing. Before the game started I came up with an elim ploy for ferreting out awakeners, which was to not kill anyone on the first or second cycle, and let them believe they role-blocked the killer by luck. I recommend that if a no-kill cycle does happen, awakeners make sure to PM someone with who they blocked, rather than revealing themselves in the thread.

And Len here:

Quote

I think the elims might purposefully not put in an elim kill one cycle, in order to make all village Awakeners think that they blocked the elim kill. I've seen this strategy used in the past, to great effect, because it gets mislynches early and reveals all village roleblockers.

Especially amusing as Bort played in this game, Orlok specced it, and Drake GMed it. I'm not aware of the popularity of withholding the kill as a strategy and haven't played in any game where this was done as a conscious choice.

Given that there is no cost to withholding the kill in this game (unlike in QF30) except for tempo, I feel the probability of such a play does in fact increase somewhat. I'd note that the corollary is that Red Wedding does require thread control, though less than I'd anticipated - the pacifist Elim team in QF30 won quite handily despite having Joe and Drought as primary thread control players: Joe wasn't especially dominant in thread control IMO, and Drought was primarily reactive; Ecth was a prowler, and Devo was being Devo and scary as all hell but not playing thread control either.

This influences my thoughts about just how much thread control a Red Wedding team really requires (much less than I anticipated) so I'll probably have to redo my Elim team profile at some point when I'm not suffering the aftereffects of the migraine.

If Bort and the HK are both Village - and I currently lean towards at least Village HK for reasons already mentioned - this is something I'd expect Elims to not want to get closely involved in, so I'd be excluding Archer for aggressively pursuing this.

This does put me in an awkward situation though as I agree with Stick's thoughts about the Thaid train not being pure Village - I just think it's more likely than not raw opportunism if at all because it's a classic D1/D2 train. 

The wonderful thing about not being a Villager is for once, I don't have to force myself to soldier on through painkillers to try to do analysis  Perhaps this should be the case whether or not I'm a Villager, but unfortunately, it hasn't worked out that way in the past.

Edited to add: FYI that my current order is in on the Shade Gun, under the assumption Village would prefer to play with an anti-investiture knife. Please let me know if you'd prefer me to go for the other one instead.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Bort he/him]

You'll have to explain the term "Red Wedding."

Obvious connotations being GoT, mass murder of specific people, so my guess is elim tactic to get as many down at the same time as possible?

And reading through QF30, I don't recall playing in that one (although was obviously there), but it does look like it was fun.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

3 hours ago, Bort said:

On Bendalloy bubbles. If Player A puts a Bendalloy bubble around Player B, then Player B did something to Player A, would it still bounce of the Bendalloy bubble, or would it work as they are both inside?

Do you mean like in the scenario I mentioned? If there is also a bubble around Player C, any actions going from Player B to Player A would be redirected.

 

4 hours ago, Bort said:

On Nicrosil (and you've probably already answered this one somewhere, but if so I've missed it, sorry), if multiple people Nicrosil the same target, would they be able to stretch out a single vial for all the Nicrosil actions? Or would it not stack like that, and they'd have to use the Nicrosil boosts on different vials?

Nicrosil/duralumin boosts can stack onto the same vial.

[Bort he/him]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Do you mean like in the scenario I mentioned? If there is also a bubble around Player C, any actions going from Player B to Player A would be redirected.

No, I mean just Player A and Player B. Player A puts a bubble up around Players A and B. If Player B were to do something to Player A then, I'd guess it would go through fine, as it's within the bubble? No redirects?

 

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Nicrosil/duralumin boosts can stack onto the same vial.

As in, multiple Nicrosil/Duralumin boosts could apply to the same, say, Iron, or Copper vial?

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Bort said:

You'll have to explain the term "Red Wedding."

Obvious connotations being GoT, mass murder of specific people, so my guess is elim tactic to get as many down at the same time as possible?

And reading through QF30, I don't recall playing in that one (although was obviously there), but it does look like it was fun.

Brought it up on D2 when trying to work out why there was no N1 kill.

I'm distinguishing it from a Mass Extinction scenario because Ash had brought up D1 the possibility of steel hoarding for a mass extinction event - in other words, all the withheld kills happen at once and we get surprised/taken aback by it. [Edited to add: And it's probably endgame for us in that scenario.] Red Wedding is more like mass slaughter/kill waves: so yes, you're not wrong, but it won't be mass extinction, just multiple deaths at once (kill waves), troughs between waves of low kill activity, with them probably reserving one or two steel vials for tactical sniping where necessary, e.g. if a Village Seeker (on the assumption there is one and that they're Village which is an assumption I never grant since Burnt the Kandra in LG15b) does something damnfool ridiculous like ignoring opsec and emerging from cover.

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Nicrosil/duralumin boosts can stack onto the same vial.

Do they have to be from different players? Say I have two nicrosil vials. Can I choose to use both in the same Turn to boost Wyrm - and can Wyrm, next Turn, use both boosts on tin, for instance? Does this further stack if Wyrm burns duralumin at the same time as I burn nicrosil and target him?

What happens if I target a player with nicrosil and they use the nicrosil to boost their duralumin and then duralumin boost tin the next Turn? What's the final result?

Edited February 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

As I understand it, Drake PM'd people claiming to have scanned them village. It is unclear whether he PM'd everybody claiming the same or just a select few (I received one too). If Drake is an elim, he might've done this either to pocket people (unlikely) or as primarily an info gathering tactic to pass it off later as a reaction test. If Drake is village it could only really be a reaction test. Either way, from what we saw in-thread, I think it's safe to conclude that Drake is NOT e/e with: illwei, Archer, Tani. 

Archer

10 hours ago, Archer said:

oi mate, Drake said they scanned me as village, quit stealing my thunder

Archer didn't hesitate to out Drake as the "scanner" following illwei's announcement (he posted this 6 minutes after). @Archer how come you didn't consider the possibility of another scanner having scanned illwei? Why did you assume Drake's scan was fake? (Asking because perhaps he explained to you in PMs that it was - in which case this doesn't make you suspicious)

[Bort he/him]

Oh, yeah. You did. At the time, I was thinking they were pretty much the same thing, and apparently I wasn't far wrong.

Thanks for the clarification though.

[Kasimir he/him]

I apologise for doing this, bro, as I enjoyed reconnecting and playing with you:

Bort.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, Bort said:

No, I mean just Player A and Player B. Player A puts a bubble up around Players A and B. If Player B were to do something to Player A then, I'd guess it would go through fine, as it's within the bubble? No redirects?

This is correct. There would be no redirects.

1 hour ago, Bort said:

As in, multiple Nicrosil/Duralumin boosts could apply to the same, say, Iron, or Copper vial?

Yes.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Do they have to be from different players? Say I have two nicrosil vials. Can I choose to use both in the same Turn to boost Wyrm - and can Wyrm, next Turn, use both boosts on tin, for instance? Does this further stack if Wyrm burns duralumin at the same time as I burn nicrosil and target him?

The boosted player can choose which vials to use the boosts on, regardless of who used the nicrosil on them. So, in this scenario, Wyrm could use 4 actions from one vial.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

What happens if I target a player with nicrosil and they use the nicrosil to boost their duralumin and then duralumin boost tin the next Turn? What's the final result?

They would get 3 Tin scans.

[Mat he/him]

5 hours ago, Bort said:

See @Archer? Many ways of doing what they did without me being an elim.

This line kind of reads elim to me for some reason xD Something about the tag and the quote together, feels... more desperate than necessary, I guess.

Agree with the village Illwei read completely.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Archer didn't hesitate to out Drake as the "scanner" following illwei's announcement (he posted this 6 minutes after). @Archer how come you didn't consider the possibility of another scanner having scanned illwei? Why did you assume Drake's scan was fake? (Asking because perhaps he explained to you in PMs that it was - in which case this doesn't make you suspicious)

I assume because Drake had PMd Archer the same... no, ok, mid-sentence I finally understood what you meant by that :P.

[Stick. she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

I assume because Drake had PMd Archer the same... no, ok, mid-sentence I finally understood what you meant by that :P.

Archer got some splainin' to do

Spoiler

 

 

[Bort he/him]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This line kind of reads elim to me for some reason xD Something about the tag and the quote together, feels... more desperate than necessary, I guess.

I was aiming for a more sarcastic feel, but never mind...

[Archer he/him]

12 hours ago, JNV said:

Idk if you mean what I think you mean but roleblocks dont lose the vial. At least the one described as a roleblock (Hazekiller). I guess chromium could do it but I don't knwo if someone could confiently say its' a roleblock because what if no vials or wrong vial or such

I don't know if anyone's noticed, but I have no idea what I'm doing :P. Bort 

12 hours ago, Sequence said:

Okay. I plan to try and be more, 'in it' from now on.

This post came a minute after Striker pinged them. That's lurker elim behavior if I've ever seen it

10 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I'm going to be disappearing for most of this day turn. I have an organic chemistry exam tomorrow and the day after that I have to spend any free moment studying for. I'll come back once I fail finish the exam. 

organic chemistry is just fake biology 

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Shade Gun.

gun! yeah, go ahead

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Archer didn't hesitate to out Drake as the "scanner" following illwei's announcement (he posted this 6 minutes after). @Archer how come you didn't consider the possibility of another scanner having scanned illwei? Why did you assume Drake's scan was fake? (Asking because perhaps he explained to you in PMs that it was - in which case this doesn't make you suspicious)

I doubt there’s two Investigators, unless one is an elim. They could just route info through the neutral to be announced, which result in one scan being NKed and the other surviving. Having more scans than kills* narrows the field very quickly, and that’s before they hit an elim.

*barring the elims having a bunch of kill manip vials on hand, which we haven’t seen evidence of

I was not given a heads up, and was working through confirming its validity in case it was real. But it was far too coincidental that Illwei and I would have received claims from scanners within ten minutes of each other. Once Illwei mentioned it, the gambit was exposed to anyone who read the thread (including me). Mentioning Drake by name was my way of confirming my assumption. I could have PMed them directly, but there wasn’t any need because I figured everyone would read Illwei’s claim and make the same inference. Especially given the forum’s recent experience with fake scans.

I’m a little surprised Illwei brought it up immediately, but I’m probably more surprised Drake ended the experiment by voting them for it. You have to claim to have red scanned someone to catch elims from their reactions. Green scans only catch villagers, giving you trust reads. Elims will just take it in stride, because they know its fake. So would the Investigator, although part of me worries they’d come back with ‘hello, fellow Investigator’ or ‘I know you’re lying’ and have such a unique reaction that they give themselves up. I’d love to hear a debrief from Drake with what they found. Otherwise, this was just a stunt of the kind certain elims will do for cred.

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Archer got some splainin' to do

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

wait ignore all that, I misunderstood what you meant. You think the reasonable assumption is to believe the claim and then see Illwei's claim and think it's likely enough that it came from a separate Investigator who also approached them around the same time to want to keep both identities secret so they can keep doing their hard work. I never considered that. Basically for the reasons stated above, so stop ignoring that paragraph. I just missed why you were suspicious of me. This is the fourth game in a row with a fake scan gambit, I've pretty much stopped believing them, especially if it requires believing in a big coincidence :P. 

[Stick. she/her]

well i just burnt my lasagne so 

 

 

edit:

Okay I'm done grieving 

22 minutes ago, Archer said:

Once Illwei mentioned it, the gambit was exposed to anyone who read the thread (including me)

so you read the thread before opening Drake's PM?

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

Elims will just take it in stride, because they know its fake

yeah that's what I was getting at - villagers can only suspect it's fake whereas elims would know for certain. And it seemed like you knew for certain  

Edited February 23, 2022 by _Stick_

[Bort he/him]

23 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

well i just burnt my lasagne so 

 

I feel your pain

 

[Kasimir he/him]

37 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

yeah that's what I was getting at - villagers can only suspect it's fake whereas elims would know for certain. And it seemed like you knew for certain  

I mean, I wanted it to be real

Drake, you broke my heart

You said you scanned me as a Villager...........

[---]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

I’m a little surprised Illwei brought it up immediately, but I’m probably more surprised Drake ended the experiment by voting them for it. You have to claim to have red scanned someone to catch elims from their reactions. Green scans only catch villagers, giving you trust reads. Elims will just take it in stride, because they know its fake. So would the Investigator, although part of me worries they’d come back with ‘hello, fellow Investigator’ or ‘I know you’re lying’ and have such a unique reaction that they give themselves up. I’d love to hear a debrief from Drake with what they found. Otherwise, this was just a stunt of the kind certain elims will do for cred.

You seem to imply finding villagers is bad? Lol?? The info you get from claiming a red scan and claiming a green scan are practically the same. You don't get anyone saying "wait, no you didnt" because that would be silly :p. What you do get are reactions that can tell you if someone knows you're lying or not, and other reactions that are good for finding villagers!!!

Because finding villagers is just as good if not better than finding elims!! I love having a group of people I can trust and work with and then be able to PoE the Elims!!! Or- I would assume I would love it!! Idk? Im new !!!!!!

[STINK he/him]

What on earth is ML and why are people just throwing it out there

[Quivil she/her]

ML is mislynch AFAIK

[---]

Archer

[Sequence she/they]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

That's lurker elim behavior if I've ever seen it

How dare you.