Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Ashbringer he/him]

Huh. Must have missed the Soothe claim. Where was that?

... I don't know anymore.

[JNV]

Hi! A lot happened, but apparently all the kills were claimed so there wasn't some mass murder elim ability probably (hopefully). So the elims weren't killing because Archer could only hide the vote or the kill, but not both. Makes sense. the kill this cycle also makes sense because Archer was doomed. Good news: we have info now! Bad news: all my village reads are now dead. Requiescat in pace to all who have perished on this good night.

So, like Ash said a bit ago, there are a few ways to proceed from here. I choose to outline all of them even though I shoudl really be going to sleep!

1. Archer connections

Vote from first cycle with color changed for alignment:

Quote

Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis
_Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity

The elims were obviously banking on no flips because they started with no kills from the get go, so I don't think they'd bus in the beginning because that's really useless wtih no flips. I think Matrim would have been village. Possibly. What really stands out is Karnatheon. I want to think they were an elim. I hope they were an elim. Otherwise, not much Archer connections. 

Vote from second cycle with color change

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Karnatheon (6): Experience, Kasimir, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, Amanuensis
Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Araris Valerian, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood

This actually makes me think a bit better of Devotary because they were the counter to Karnatheon with the Archer vote on them but their role as they state it to be is a lot more useful than a vote mover plus the vote manip was in Karnatheon's favor so saving Devotary was obviously a non priority. This all depends on Devotary's honesty though and that's always a bit hard to tell

Vote from last cycle

Quote

Archer (10): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, _Stick_, JNV, Amanuensis, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Orlok Tsubodai
Amanuensis (2): Illwei, Archer

I don't think I really need to say this makes Illwei look a bit sketchy but honestly I think an elim would jump ship to Archer and get a bit of credit rather than hang on so just mixed feelings about different opinions I guess? But I think there has to be at least one elim from the Archer voters. Probably. 

Archer's posts from C1

• Their first post spelled out "KRROK" (crook) which makes me laugh. If that was on purpose then I applaud you
• lampshades complicated role 
  • Their role seems relatively straightforward so they probably already set up the gambit
• Mixup
• Puns
• The role claim plus info fishing
  • About 2.5 hoursa fter the lampshade
• The Illwei interaction here makes me think better of Illwei because such strongdisagreement about something that is good for elims
• Explains solving
• "What did TJ do that made this need to be blackout?"
  • We have our answer. Your role. *incomprehensible screaming*
• RP
• Floats suspicion of everyone mentioned except Thaidakar but particularly Illwei
• Argues against the Mat vote and floats suspicion on Ashbringer and Devotary while also voting Mat

Conclusions: Archer is good at puns. Either expert distancing or Illwei seems better off (but there was a retract in there that felt weird honestly). Ashbringer seems alright. I don't know about Devotary.

Archer's posts from C2

• Pretends about role. Tries to excuse lack of elim kill. Reads list. I think paranoia is keeping me from properly analyzing the reads list. Is Archer known for distancing and such? If so, maybe I'll take a look at those "suspicious" reads. 
  • Lampshades low/inactive elim team which implies at least 1-2 high activity members
• Joke
• Proposes Striker theories. Elaborates on fake role.
• More Devotary suspicion

Conclusions: Depends on whether or not Archer is known for distancing. People who have played with him as evil before, let me know!

Archer's posts C3

• More shade on Devotary. Agrees with netural but seems "too villagery"? Accepts arsonist alternative to no kill. Suspicion on Thaidakar 
  • The Thaidakar is a sharp turn from the earlier good vibes
• Wants kills going around. The scam thing. 
  • Honestly, this kind of makes me think Thaidakar is village. I don't really want to think that, but thats personal bias, not logic. 
• Scam exposed. Trie sto justify by implicating Amanuensis.
• Further justification
• More justification
• More justification
  • "Big assumption to think [their] role is what's keeping the alignments concealed." Yeah right.
• More justification. Expresses suspicion of Ashbringer and Devotary
• "Big reveal"

Conclusions: Again, I kind of want to think better of Devotary and Ashbringer, but distancing. Also I just kind of think well of them in general.

 

2. Role claims

Thaidakar... I've gone back and forth a bit on this one. In the end, I think they're village. A really inexperienced, negligent village, but village. I just cannot see a world where this sort of behavior persists when they're elim. But if you are an elim, then good on you and sorry for doubting your ability. 

Concerning the Stick bit: I don't like the role . It seems too swingy. I don't want to think it exists. But with the death toll? I think it has to exist, or at least exist in a form where two people die. However, them confessing looks good, I have to say. Mostly because something had to cause those deaths, and why would an elim have a role that wipes two villagers?

Devotary. Honestly, I'm inclined to believe them. They were killing people when the elims were obviously going for the no flips strategy and the Unknown Aon verified them.

Illwei claims message after death. Unverifiable until they die. They had strong support of Archer. There was an Archer vote retract that felt strange. I could see them as elim. 

 

3. Process of elimination

There's 13 players left. Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Araris, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary, STINK, Stick, Szeth, me, Thaidakar, Orlok, Dannnex. There were 21 players to start, so about 4-5 elims. 1-2 are dead (Archer and maybe Karnatheon). Probably 3 elims left.

Removing me from the pool. If you find me suspicious, feel free to leave me in. Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Araris, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary, STINK, Stick, Szeth, Thaidakar, Orlok, Dannnex

Tentatively removing Thaidakar, Devotary, Ashbringer, Stick from the pool (see above). Illwei, The Unknown Aon, Araris, Tani, STINK, Szeth, Orlok, Dannnex. Thats a bit more managable.

Tani. They are actively shading Devotary with really strong claims that seem a bit... like nothing? It's a blackout game and they expect a neutral to be in the rules? They expect their weird neutral ratios from their game to be representative of everything? I don't like it. 

The Unknown Aon. They almost certainly started as a Regular. I don't think they're an elim with Devotary because having an evil person that can give the vanilla evil person roles seems a bit busted. This doesn't mean they aren't an elim, but seems less likely than other options.

I'm lumping STINK, Szeth and Dannex in the same box. They haven't done enough for me to remember anything they've done. I can't read them like this, but @Devotary of Spontaneity if you want to kill people, here are some targets.

See section 2 for Illwei.

Araris. I remember that they did things, but my brain is blanking on what they actually did. Not something I'd want to pursue

Orlok. The thing is, I like Orlok. I like the spreadsheets and the words. I don't think I can evaluate them without extreme bias. But I like the effort and questions and such and this is probably the vote I most don't want. 

 

TL;DR Illwei and Tani seem weird. I feel pretty good about Devotary, Stick, and Thaidakar. I don't remember anything Araris did so maybe them? STINK Szeth and Dannnex are black boxes.

I'll go with Illwei for now. Might reevaluate tomorrow after I reread everything to try and remember what Araris did. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

19 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Huh. Must have missed the Soothe claim. Where was that?

... I don't know anymore.

Quote

I provide insurance against losing outright to honestly both sides (kill, soothe, regular vote) it just could take a lot longer to win if I also win.

C1 I tried to soothe Kas and it bounced to Araris, which is part of the reason why I was confident about Araris being a mutual target switcher.

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 minutes ago, JNV said:

The Unknown Aon. They almost certainly started as a Regular. I don't think they're an elim with Devotary because having an evil person that can give the vanilla evil person roles seems a bit busted. This doesn't mean they aren't an elim, but seems less likely than other options.

Here's my theory on how E!Devo and E!TUA could work. In the books (yeah I know the flavor has been on point this game but that's what my chaos is doing this game), Calamity gives Epics powers, and then gets them back when they die. E!Calamity!Devotary could have gotten the option of taking Experience's Protect role... 

Wait, no, that doesn't work. Experience died and TUA got a power the same cycle. Still a possibility, just a whole lot weirder. Unlikely.

However, there's not too much of a functional difference, because I don't see a world where we exe TUA before Devotary, and if Devotary flips Elim then that gives us a lot more to work with than TUA's claim.

[Stick. she/her]

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@_Stick_, if you'd had a standard One-shot Vigilante Kill, would you still have used it on Experience?

Probably not, because then we would've just gotten no info (cuz no flips either, as far as I knew). I was hoping they would self protect, so then I would have a confirmed villager. If I just had a regular one shot vigilante kill I probably would've just sat on it a while longer, at least until we'd figured out what on earth was happening with the no flips thing. The general frustration regarding the no flips is what persuaded me to use my role last cycle cuz I thought this way, I could get at least some info for us to use. But as it turns out, exeing archer straight up solved all that. I made a bad move and I'm legit having nightmares about it. xD I dreamt last night that everyone started spamming the thread with Elephant gifs and I couldn't keep up with analysing the gifs - I don't know what that's supposed to symbolise. xD

[Ashbringer he/him]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Probably not, because then we would've just gotten no info (cuz no flips either, as far as I knew). I was hoping they would self protect, so then I would have a confirmed villager. If I just had a regular one shot vigilante kill I probably would've just sat on it a while longer, at least until we'd figured out what on earth was happening with the no flips thing. The general frustration regarding the no flips is what persuaded me to use my role last cycle cuz I thought this way, I could get at least some info for us to use. But as it turns out, exeing archer straight up solved all that. I made a bad move and I'm legit having nightmares about it. xD I dreamt last night that everyone started spamming the thread with Elephant gifs and I couldn't keep up with analysing the gifs - I don't know what that's supposed to symbolise. xD

I... uh... yeah I don't know what's up with that. I can look for some if you want 

Spoiler

To be honest, I'm... more convinced that you're telling the truth now. Mainly because there's more evidence of Devotary and Illwei lying/having lied, but there's a few other things. So we'll see. That role is still... weird. 

[Stick. she/her]

55 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I... uh... yeah I don't know what's up with that. I can look for some if you want 

  Reveal hidden contents

To be honest, I'm... more convinced that you're telling the truth now. Mainly because there's more evidence of Devotary and Illwei lying/having lied, but there's a few other things. So we'll see. That role is still... weird. 

Aw this one's actually kinda cute  

[Illwei]

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I dreamt last night that everyone started spamming the thread with Elephant gifs and I couldn't keep up with analysing the gifs -

Help I want to read this as village

Killing XP still doesn't make sense imo but I'm willing to overlook that in favor of other things.

Ash
Stick

Edited February 17, 2022 by Illwei

[Orlok Tsubodai]

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I thought they would keep quiet about it to avoid being killed, and that claiming to have scanned them as not an Epic would be a hint to do so.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, again you haven’t explained why you would give TUA Epic Powers. 

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

A thief can only steal a power when it's used, and giving someone an Epic power doesn't count as me using an Epic power.

Afraid I just don’t buy this - it feels too convenient, and enough of what you’ve said has been demonstratively false regardless.

@Ashbringer, I think even if Devotary is Calamity, they need to be lynched this cycle - they’ve been misleading the thread at length, and continue to obfuscate the reasons for their actions - I think the reason for this is that they’re more at odds with us than they claim. 

From a slightly different perspective, we’re Reckoners, in a blackout game - I’m afraid I 1) don’t buy Calamity existing within this game for narrative reasons - what happens to Epics at large when they’re lynched and removed, and 2) don’t believe Calamity would be neutral.

[Ashbringer he/him]

57 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Ashbringer, I think even if Devotary is Calamity, they need to be lynched this cycle - they’ve been misleading the thread at length, and continue to obfuscate the reasons for their actions - I think the reason for this is that they’re more at odds with us than they claim. 

From a slightly different perspective, we’re Reckoners, in a blackout game - I’m afraid I 1) don’t buy Calamity existing within this game for narrative reasons - what happens to Epics at large when they’re lynched and removed, and 2) don’t believe Calamity would be neutral.

Yeah… I guess so. Cried wolf and all that - and even if Devo tells the truth this time, that’s still an Sk we need to kill to win. So Illwei Devotary then.

I wish this game had a multi-voting system. Maybe I just need to post more reads. But between Illwei being this close to wolfing, Devotary claiming SK overlord as the positive spin, Stick and Thaid blowing up half the confirmed-action village-trusts, and Dannnex/Szeth/STINK being AWOL… this is a lot. But we need to pick one.

Narrative reasons have only served to bite me so far. See: Gifter Epic who also Gifts to Epics. And has far too many questions.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’m cool with voting off Devotary. I’d rather not have a SK running around, even if she’s technically neutral and her current explanation of her role is truthful.

Apologies for my lack of contribution to the cycle, the combination of the LG starting and some IRL stuff took up pretty much all my time, but I should be more active next cycle.

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

Guys I just realized I voted Stick in another game instead of here.. who. did I last vote for? oh well Stick

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity, again you haven’t explained why you would give TUA Epic Powers. 

Afraid I just don’t buy this - it feels too convenient, and enough of what you’ve said has been demonstratively false regardless.

@Ashbringer, I think even if Devotary is Calamity, they need to be lynched this cycle - they’ve been misleading the thread at length, and continue to obfuscate the reasons for their actions - I think the reason for this is that they’re more at odds with us than they claim. 

From a slightly different perspective, we’re Reckoners, in a blackout game - I’m afraid I 1) don’t buy Calamity existing within this game for narrative reasons - what happens to Epics at large when they’re lynched and removed, and 2) don’t believe Calamity would be neutral.

Protect in my hands doesn't really help me. In someone else's hands, theoretically it could protect me. Mostly though, goal #1 is to keep the game balanced between the village and elims for as long as possible, goal #2 is to interact with the game. It's not interesting for me to just do nothing and try to blend in with the crowd. I want to be a player more than an auto-balancing mechanism.

Of course I've been lying the whole game. I was about to be killed for voting Stick C1 instead of going along with something easy, and revealing SK Calamity wouldn't have saved me. I am a neutral. I can't support the win-con of killing all the Corrupted Epics unless I also win by winnowing down the player list to two other people. I can't support the Corrupted Epics winning any time before v/e parity at 1-1. Now that I've had to claim, both sides can decide to kill me whenever they want and there's not much I can do about it. I'm not going to count on TUA protecting me and that can't save me twice in a row anyway. Nothing involving me happens to Epics who die, but I do get protect back if TUA dies, I just can't give it to anyone else after that.

I don't know why you think Calamity doesn't make sense narratively or why I wouldn't be a neutral.

[STINK he/him]

Hello yes still alive still migraine apologies for all inconveniences 

[Ashbringer he/him]

@|TJ|, could I get a vote count?

[Illwei]

19 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

To be honest, I'm... more convinced that you're telling the truth now. Mainly because there's more evidence of Devotary and Illwei lying/having lied, but there's a few other things. So we'll see. That role is still... weird.

Is your current measure of who we should kill based on who has lied/kept secrets and who hasn't? And are you seriously putting me in the Lynch pile for having lied?  :p. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

45 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Is your current measure of who we should kill based on who has lied/kept secrets and who hasn't? And are you seriously putting me in the Lynch pile for having lied?  :p. 

It's one of the measures. Besides, I think you're still lying.

See, one of the powers I can grant is an Anonymous Message. Except TJ told me that it works like a normal Tineye message, using an action to put one in. Which isn't how you claim yours works.

Orlok's right about Devotary being the more immediate problem, though.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Orlok's right about Devotary being the more immediate problem, though.

How am I an immediate problem?

[Ashbringer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

How am I an immediate problem?

In part because I think you’re lying too. And Illwei is definitely a little too… personal. But lying nor not, you’ve got a NK you’re willing to use on either team, and the Village has more to lose on that end. 

I guess it matters based on who you think is losing right now. But I’ve played Kandra, and I know that balance shifts a lot.

I’m not a great leader. I don’t always have expert rationalizations for what I can do. But I can handle information. 

[Illwei]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

In part because I think you’re lying too. And Illwei is definitely a little too… personal. But lying nor not, you’ve got a NK you’re willing to use on either team, and the Village has more to lose on that end. 

I guess it matters based on who you think is losing right now. But I’ve played Kandra, and I know that balance shifts a lot.

I’m not a great leader. I don’t always have expert rationalizations for what I can do. But I can handle information. 

Illwei is too personal?

But you can handle information? Lol

[JNV]

Hi! Last post of the night and probably the cycle so I just want to take a second to say that killing Devotary right now is a bad move if @Devotary of Spontaneity is willing to be a personal assassin for us. The issue for us right now is that there are a lot of people that we know nothing about and don't really feel confident voting off as a result. Devotary can kill people for us, reducing the number of cycles we need to cut down on people. The thing is, we don't really need Devotary to die now. Devotary can die whenever or never at all. They are definitely not an elim based on interactions and they have to actively work against both sides so the elims also want them dead at some point. To be honest, the villge side of things is looking pretty grim so Devotary is incentivized to work with us until it starts looking bad for the elims at which point we vote them off

To be honest, I'm not sure I feel great about the idea of basically threatening a palyer into compliance so Devotary, I'd like you to comment on whether or not you'd be willin gbefore anything actually happens t o implement this

A list of people I'd kind of like dead in no particular order

• Dannex. Skating by with nothing
• Szeth. Also skating by
• STINK. to a lessr extent with an excuse 
• Araris. I still can't remember what they've done een though I just reread the entire game so far but that might be exhaustion takling so I don't really know on this one
• Tani. Some weird opinions honestly.
• Illwei. This is the person I want to vote off, but if you're going to die anyway, I'd appreciate a kill on them to save us some time if that come sbefore the vote in the actions.

I'm so tired right now soI'm going to sleep and I'll see you after the cycle ends and hopefully the world won't end while I'm asleep

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

In part because I think you’re lying too. And Illwei is definitely a little too… personal. But lying nor not, you’ve got a NK you’re willing to use on either team, and the Village has more to lose on that end. 

I guess it matters based on who you think is losing right now. But I’ve played Kandra, and I know that balance shifts a lot.

I would use NKs on people who could be evil. There's a higher likelihood of hitting a villager but hitting an elim hurts them more, same as any other vig kill.

I'm guessing it's 9-3-1 or 8-4-1 right now, which does make a difference but means I won't try to hit a villager on purpose this cycle. 

Edit: @JNV I'm not going to be a personal assassin and if I'm going to be exed this cycle I'll do nothing and just leave the village and elims to fight it out. If I get a vaguely agreed-upon do not kill list I'll respect that.

Edited February 18, 2022 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Ashbringer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Illwei is too personal?

But you can handle information? Lol

My reasons to suspect you are greatly tied to your interactions with me and my role. Perhaps too greatly for objectivity.

I think so. I seem to be the main one looking.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@|TJ|, could I get a vote count?

Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Illwei, Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Tani, Orlok Tsubodai
Illwei (2): _Stick_, JNV
Tani (1): The Unknown Aon
_Stick_ (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

[Illwei]

I think that there is probably an Elim on Devo. SK kills are easy outs for not having to solve + not having to deal with an SK in the game, obviously.

Tani