Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Illwei]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Not sure how that could have been mistaken for only working on elims but he's village so okay. Stink has the same role that Orlok claimed, but we did have Kas and Karn with identical roles so we know we can have duplicates. Illwei coming back from the dead makes being the target of the elim kill less village indicative but wasting a kill on e!Illwei that could have been on a villager wouldn't be a great move. And Illwei was the first vote for Stick back on C1.

@Illwei people saw Stink as village for voting Stick C5 when it was

Araris (1): JNV
Szeth (1): Illwei
Stick (2): Araris, Orlok
Illwei (1): Stick
Devotary (1): Thaidakar

where Stink + Stick + elim 3 could have made sure someone else died unless I intervened with my vote + soothe. If the team was Araris/Orlok/Stink/Stick they could have voted on anyone they wanted to save Stick. I'm not really sure why Thaid died since there was a possibility of him being mixed. How does your role point to Araris being evil?

Edit: @Orlok Tsubodai how have your action scans been going? Who have you targeted in the past few cycles?

If Orlok and Araris are Elims there then Stink voting on there with them is 1) a meme lol and 2) Safe as all heck because you have three people that can easily move off at any time.

Wait is C5 when Stick died? Either way if Araris is an Elim, the moment he decided to compromise with me over there it was a planned bus.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If Orlok and Araris are Elims there then Stink voting on there with them is 1) a meme lol and 2) Safe as all heck because you have three people that can easily move off at any time.

Wait is C5 when Stick died? Either way if Araris is an Elim, the moment he decided to compromise with me over there it was a planned bus.

That was C5 when Stick died so it wasn't safe for her and none of them moved. The only reason they'd do a bus at exlo is if they thought I'd kill one of them.

[Illwei]

Also then why was Araris an option then? If you think stink is village for voting Stick there then you have to think that it wasn't a bus and that Araris isn't an Elim either.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also then why was Araris an option then? If you think stink is village for voting Stick there then you have to think that it wasn't a bus and that Araris isn't an Elim either.

Clearly it was a bus since Stink and Stick were both elims. You, Szeth, and Araris can't all be elims and I'm not an elim so they did have options and went for the bus instead. Even with killing you and not wanting to exe me since I don't count towards parity that would mean Szeth and Araris are both evil and Stick's role is important since it's immune to vigilante kills.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Clearly it was a bus since Stink and Stick were both elims. You, Szeth, and Araris can't all be elims and I'm not an elim so they did have options and went for the bus instead. Even with killing you and not wanting to exe me since I don't count towards parity that would mean Szeth and Araris are both evil and Stick's role is important since it's immune to vigilante kills.

Wait she was immune to vig kills? So....you? Not sure what that means to me wrt Araris’s alignment

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Wait she was immune to vig kills? So....you? Not sure what that means to me wrt Araris’s alignment

TJ told me that she was only immune to my kill the first time protection notwithstanding and that I would have been able to kill her had I hit her twice, but given that she did survive the first time the elims easily could believed she was entirely immune. Thaidakar's kill presumably would not have worked.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

My own working assumption is that Araris was a distancing vote on Stick, that my own case against Stick made it impossible for Araris to move his vote, and that STINK’s vote was opportunistic.

I realise how my clearing of STINK looks, @Illwei, but read STINK’s vote in response to my argument as village, feeling that it sealed any chance of Stick dying. I didn’t see Stick as a bus, as three eliminators C5 is a very strong position to throw away - suspicion of Araris was predicated on his vote being pinned.

I’d ask that you read the end of C5 and last cycle again - I hope you can see that I’ve been making a genuine attempt at solving the game, but that I was working from a mistaken assumption.

I’d also note that I did suggest to Devotary that STINK be a potential hedging kill to JNV, alongside Szeth, right at the end of the cycle.

I’m going to return to trying to solve for the remaining eliminator (and am convinced there is only one left - with Devo neutral, I don’t think 15-5-1 works, particularly with blackout and a janitor). Araris is, obviously, the starting point here.

With Illwei now alive again, I think we must be at 4-1-1, which is lylo, as any non-Araris kill Devo makes, along with the lynch and elim kill, takes us to three players next cycle, one of which is neutral. Thankfully, provided we do get the eliminator, Devotary can win with the village, and so doesn’t need to be treated as hostile.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, answering your question about my action following:

C1 I attempted to follow Kas, and was switched to following Araris, discovering that Araris targeted Kas

C2 I attempted to follow Araris, and was switched to following Aman, who targeted no one.

C3 I followed Devotary, who visited TUA.

C4 I followed Illwei, who visited no one.

C5 I followed JNV, who visited no one.

C6 I followed Szeth, who visited no one.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So unless there are still 2 elims left, Illwei should be clear, since an elim kill went in last cycle. Likewise, Devotary’s action is accounted for, not that I think there was any serious doubt about that remaining.

That leaves TUA, Orlok, and Szeth. And to be honest, TUA and Szeth don’t really spark any memories for me. Not sure they’ve made any significant contributions to the game yet. I’m also surprised that TUA wasn’t filter-killed.

I’m still uncomfortable with Orlok pushing for me, and I would like an explanation. @Orlok Tsubodai, aside from things about my role, why do you find me more suspicious than TUA and Szeth? Also, why would elim!me bus Stick when Illwei was seemingly willing to join me on someone else and I had (in her mind, at least) no good reason to vote for Stick? It certainly hasn’t gained me any trust, which is generally the point of a bus.

[Illwei]

23 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

My own working assumption is that Araris was a distancing vote on Stick, that my own case against Stick made it impossible for Araris to move his vote, and that STINK’s vote was opportunistic.

I realise how my clearing of STINK looks, @Illwei, but read STINK’s vote in response to my argument as village, feeling that it sealed any chance of Stick dying. I didn’t see Stick as a bus, as three eliminators C5 is a very strong position to throw away - suspicion of Araris was predicated on his vote being pinned.

I’d ask that you read the end of C5 and last cycle again - I hope you can see that I’ve been making a genuine attempt at solving the game, but that I was working from a mistaken assumption.

I’d also note that I did suggest to Devotary that STINK be a potential hedging kill to JNV, alongside Szeth, right at the end of the cycle.

I’m going to return to trying to solve for the remaining eliminator (and am convinced there is only one left - with Devo neutral, I don’t think 15-5-1 works, particularly with blackout and a janitor). Araris is, obviously, the starting point here.

With Illwei now alive again, I think we must be at 4-1-1, which is lylo, as any non-Araris kill Devo makes, along with the lynch and elim kill, takes us to three players next cycle, one of which is neutral. Thankfully, provided we do get the eliminator, Devotary can win with the village, and so doesn’t need to be treated as hostile.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, answering your question about my action following:

C1 I attempted to follow Kas, and was switched to following Araris, discovering that Araris targeted Kas

C2 I attempted to follow Araris, and was switched to following Aman, who targeted no one.

C3 I followed Devotary, who visited TUA.

C4 I followed Illwei, who visited no one.

C5 I followed JNV, who visited no one.

C6 I followed Szeth, who visited no one.

Are you not factoring in the extra lives and vote manip?

EDIT:

If Orlok is village, then Araris is an Elim. So Orlok why aren't you voting on him?

from his POV it's: TUA is cleared, Szeth is cleared. Illwei and Araris are the only contenders, and how he's approached me all game and today is seemingly under the assumption that I am village, TMI or not.

The two reasons I'm not pushing the NKA angle today is because of 1) how wrong Orlok was, 2) The fact that they might have thought it was game over with me dead, and 3) that he was soft confirmed by stick's claim. which idk how much of point 2 I believe.

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Illwei

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So unless there are still 2 elims left, Illwei should be clear, since an elim kill went in last cycle. Likewise, Devotary’s action is accounted for, not that I think there was any serious doubt about that remaining.

That leaves TUA, Orlok, and Szeth. And to be honest, TUA and Szeth don’t really spark any memories for me. Not sure they’ve made any significant contributions to the game yet. I’m also surprised that TUA wasn’t filter-killed.

STINK easily could have put in that kill so that's not the reason to consider Illwei village.

TUA did post sort of and the new rules don't specify that players who post only to dodge the filter will still be filter-killed. TUA only voted C4 for Tani for not stealing my scan the cycle I gave TUA Epic powers instead of scanning. Szeth didn't vote until C6 for JNV after liking your and Orlok's C1 votes but suspecting a bus on Stick.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

So unless there are still 2 elims left, Illwei should be clear, since an elim kill went in last cycle. Likewise, Devotary’s action is accounted for, not that I think there was any serious doubt about that remaining.

That leaves TUA, Orlok, and Szeth. And to be honest, TUA and Szeth don’t really spark any memories for me. Not sure they’ve made any significant contributions to the game yet. I’m also surprised that TUA wasn’t filter-killed.

I’m still uncomfortable with Orlok pushing for me, and I would like an explanation. @Orlok Tsubodai, aside from things about my role, why do you find me more suspicious than TUA and Szeth? Also, why would elim!me bus Stick when Illwei was seemingly willing to join me on someone else and I had (in her mind, at least) no good reason to vote for Stick? It certainly hasn’t gained me any trust, which is generally the point of a bus.

Bracketing Illwei’s alignment, why wouldn’t a kill have gone in last cycle? STINK was alive, and we don’t know that the OOA has the lynch come before the kill. I don’t know that we can mechanically clear Illwei on this basis.

With regards to your own alignment, I’d point out that I wasn’t pushing you last cycle so much as trying to work out what eliminator pairings were possible. Please do look at my analysis, as I hope it shows my thought process as I went through it. With the STINK flip, I’m now more suspicious of you from his defence of your role last cycle, and from the Stick vote, which looks more plausibly like a bus. 
 

I’d point you all again to C3, and to my interactions with Archer - firstly on their role, and then on accusing them of lying about what Matrim said, having broken down the consequences of what Archer claimed Matrim had answered. e!Orlok entails that I threw Archer under the bus, taking out the elim information reduction, and then chose to bus Stick beyond that. Honestly, I’m quite proud of myself for working out Archer and Stick.

Just now, Illwei said:

Are you not factoring in the extra lives and vote manip?

Into eliminator team size? I still can’t see a five player elim team - I think starting with 15-5-1 is broken in the best of circumstances, and honestly have been pretty aggrieved by the balance even believing it to be 16-4-1. I think Archer made a monumental error claiming to be able to speak to the dead, as otherwise the eliminators could have played a zero information slow game, building up Arson kills, all in a blackout. It was damaging enough even with that.

As much as I respect TJ, I genuinely don’t know how that wasn’t spotted by the balance committee as an issue. Throw in a serial killer, and a 33% elim ratio, and this game would be one of the most unbalanced I’ve seen in a long while.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

As much as I respect TJ, I genuinely don’t know how that wasn’t spotted by the balance committee as an issue. Throw in a serial killer, and a 33% elim ratio, and this game would be one of the most unbalanced I’ve seen in a long while.

This reads to me like an elim annoyed by the fact that they're about to die after having bussed two teammates because they only started off with four people on the team.

I don't think it's broken at all. First of all, look where we are. I still think that it's potentially anyone's game. I still think that if it isn't Araris then well played elims.  I don't think that if it's not Araris then the game was broken because that doesn't make any sense.

Vote manip counts for more players on the elim's side, but what would it count for villagers? we saw Karn and Kas, and if they were both village then giving them that power could be seen as practically an extra villager between the two of them. Adding to that the extra KP in terms of Thaidikar's kill? that would be able to surpass blocks like Araris'. then you had me who has an extra life as long as I'm not killed at Lylo.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I agree with Orlok that if Archer had lived any longer, this game would have been extremely hard to win.

In regards to OOA, usually the vote comes relatively early, so I was sort of assuming that STINK wouldn’t have been able to send it in.

If Devo has another kill, I propose we vote out Szeth and ask her to kill TUA. And if Orlok is the last elim, then well played to him. Or to Illwei, if it’s her somehow.

I don’t think there’s really much I can say to defend myself, but I would really prefer not to lose to an inactive Szeth/TUA.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Orlok Tsubodai]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This reads to me like an elim annoyed by the fact that they're about to die after having bussed two teammates because they only started off with four people on the team.

I don't think it's broken at all. First of all, look where we are. I still think that it's potentially anyone's game. I still think that if it isn't Araris then well played elims.  I don't think that if it's not Araris then the game was broken because that doesn't make any sense.

Vote manip counts for more players on the elim's side, but what would it count for villagers? we saw Karn and Kas, and if they were both village then giving them that power could be seen as practically an extra villager between the two of them. Adding to that the extra KP in terms of Thaidikar's kill? that would be able to surpass blocks like Araris'. then you had me who has an extra life as long as I'm not killed at Lylo.

Could you please try to read my posts charitably, Illwei? I don’t think you and I will ever see eye to eye on how to play SE, and suspect the nature of our character is such that that we’d grate each other regardless, but I’ve been making a genuine effort to try to give you a fair and balanced hearing since AG8. I’d ask that you do the same.

Honestly though, I’m not worried that I’m going to die. I’m confident that should you reread C3 and C5, the nature and tone of my interactions with Archer and Stick vindicate me.

I’d also point to last cycle - you yourself point out that the effort I put in was unnecessary. Please, read it again - I really do think it makes it clear that I’ve been attempting to solve the game.

Once more, I’d point to my end of cycle post to Devotary - I think that illustrates well my worry about the JNV lynch. More importantly, why would I have updated my request to Devotary from killing Szeth as the hedge against v!JNV to killing STINK or Szeth as the hedge if I was on a team with Stink?

[Illwei]

13 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Could you please try to read my posts charitably, Illwei? I don’t think you and I will ever see eye to eye on how to play SE, and suspect the nature of our character is such that that we’d grate each other regardless, but I’ve been making a genuine effort to try to give you a fair and balanced hearing since AG8. I’d ask that you do the same.

I have been

Have you noticed I'm not voting on you?

I'm not trying to always look for the worst in you. I thought that should be apparent. I'm also not going to just ignore you as a suspect because I'm scared you're going to get offended if I do. 

EDIT:

but wow ok Araris  was trying to put pressure on Orlok but I can't bear not to vote here anymore especially after reading Araris' post. 

Functionally we have the game mech locked if Orlok is telling the truth, but Araris going for Szeth there is pretty much outing in my opinion. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Illwei

[Elandera she/her]

Hello, just popping by again to say hello since it's been a few cycles. If you have questions, concerns, or simply need to rant/vent a bit, ping me in your GM PM (or on Discord if it's an emergent situation). I'm always willing to listen and help as best I can. After all, I am your friendly neighborhood Spider-IM (no relation to any -ims located on Roshar).

Edited February 22, 2022 by Elandera

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Functionally we have the game mech locked if Orlok is telling the truth, but Araris going for Szeth there is pretty much outing in my opinion.

Can you explain for the unenlightened? 

Edit: Maybe to help clarify, it seems like you think that either Orlok is elim or I am. But I'm not you how you are justifying that claim. (My statement here is based on the fact that you think the game is locked (solved?) if Orlok is telling the truth, and that is compatible with me being elim. The other alternative seems to be that Orlok is lying, and hence, elim)

Edit 2: I think I see it? Since Orlok telling the truth implies that Szeth didn't send in the kill. And if the elim kill is after the vote in the OOA, that means it's impossible for Szeth to be elim. I'm going to wait to unvote in a new post, but I guess that means that if you guys vote me out and Devo kills TUA then we win. Definitely not leaning elim!Orlok at this point, and major props to him if he is.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Illwei]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Can you explain for the unenlightened? 

Edit: Maybe to help clarify, it seems like you think that either Orlok is elim or I am. But I'm not you how you are justifying that claim. (My statement here is based on the fact that you think the game is locked (solved?) if Orlok is telling the truth, and that is compatible with me being elim. The other alternative seems to be that Orlok is lying, and hence, elim)

Edit 2: I think I see it? Since Orlok telling the truth implies that Szeth didn't send in the kill. And if the elim kill is after the vote in the OOA, that means it's impossible for Szeth to be elim. I'm going to wait to unvote in a new post, but I guess that means that if you guys vote me out and Devo kills TUA then we win. Definitely not leaning elim!Orlok at this point, and major props to him if he is.

Yeah

If there's only one Elim left right now, then it can't be szeth because szeth didn't kill

therefore it has to be you.

It's not TUA because he was a regular.

it's not Szeth because of Orlok's scan

It's not me because well...I'm me

and if orlok is telling the truth then it's not orlok

[Orlok Tsubodai]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah

If there's only one Elim left right now, then it can't be szeth because szeth didn't kill

therefore it has to be you.

It's not TUA because he was a regular.

it's not Szeth because of Orlok's scan

It's not me because well...I'm me

and if orlok is telling the truth then it's not orlok

I don’t like the clearing of Szeth based on the absence of Szeth killing - it relies on OOA, which we don’t know. I don’t quite understand how we’ve arrived at consensus that the lynch is before the kill.

[Illwei]

14 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I don’t like the clearing of Szeth based on the absence of Szeth killing - it relies on OOA, which we don’t know. I don’t quite understand how we’ve arrived at consensus that the lynch is before the kill.

The other option is that STINK performed the kill I suppose. I just don't know about that. And I don't know why you're thinking about the Removal meaning anything when STINK wasn't voted out?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

The other option is that STINK performed the kill I suppose. I just don't know about that. And I don't know why you're thinking about the Removal meaning anything when STINK wasn't voted out?

Point taken re lynch/vig kill (past midnight here) - although that makes the point even stronger. Why assume that the vig kill would happen before the elim kill? I don’t see how STINK performing the kill wasn’t considered.

[Illwei]

13 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Point taken re lynch/vig kill (past midnight here) - although that makes the point even stronger. Why assume that the vig kill would happen before the elim kill? I don’t see how STINK performing the kill wasn’t considered.

Do you agree that the path here then is to vote for Szeth and kill TUA at night like Araris? What's your proposed plan of action?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I mean, we can't conclusively rule out a Regular elim, though I'd agree that's probably unlikely. I also don't think we can necessarily rule out Illwei, or STINK sending in the kill last cycle. In fact, I had forgotten that STINK was vig-killed, and not voted out. So my vote on Szeth still seems pretty justified. If you guys want to vote me out, I'd change my suggestion for Devotary to be to kill Szeth or Illwei. Probably Szeth, just because Illwei is actually trying (at least on the surface, but it feels legit) to solve things.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

Do you agree that the path here then is to vote for Szeth and kill TUA at night like Araris? What's your proposed plan of action?

My proposed plan is to go through the thread again, looking at our remaining players. If you’d asked me , I’d have cleared TUA, and so voted off Araris whilst asking Devo to kill Szeth.
 

With your return, I’m not sure - I want to get a read on you independent of your role, and being so wrong about Stink has reduced my confidence in my reads more generally, so am going to look at again at TUA.

@The Unknown Aon @Szeth_Pancakes, if you had to pick one player to lynch and one to kill, who would you name?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

My proposed plan is to go through the thread again, looking at our remaining players. If you’d asked me , I’d have cleared TUA, and so voted off Araris whilst asking Devo to kill Szeth.

With your return, I’m not sure - I want to get a read on you independent of your role, and being so wrong about Stink has reduced my confidence in my reads more generally, so am going to look at again at TUA.

So you want to kill two of Araris, Szeth, and TUA, or possibly Illwei? I can do that unless we exe Araris while he swaps with the person I'm trying to kill. I wouldn't put Illwei high on the kill list for C1 Stick vote and wasting an elim kill. Szeth has almost nothing to go on, not even a role claim. I did think Araris was aligned with Stick back on C2 but I should probably look at that again, and is also a decent hedge exe. TUA has almost nothing except being regular to start on a team of Epics.