Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Stick. she/her]

2 minutes ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

Um... I think you are both C (crazy)

uhhh no that's not very nice

and we are all crazy in the grand scheme of things

thoughts on my post on illwei? it is not very long

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

uhhh no that's not very nice

and we are all crazy in the grand scheme of things

thoughts on my post on illwei? it is not very long

um, well they both started ranting at each other or that's what it looked like to me so that is why I said it

we really are.

[Elandera she/her]

Before I start, I will clarify I am running on about 4 hours of sleep and woke up to this, so I apologize if any of my response is extra terse. Not angry, just not mincing words.

I want to remind everyone of a few rules.

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Don’t take an argument personally.

...

Disagreements are common, but just because someone says something you disagree with doesn’t mean that you can insult them or that they can insult you.

Please keep arguments about the game and not about each other. It is perfectly okay if someone else doesn't agree with your style. It's okay to debate about what tactics you think are most useful. It is not okay to start personal attacks. Once again, if you find yourself being drawn into a potentially explosive argument (especially if it diverts away from relevant game arguments), step away.

Finally:

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Put yourself in the other player’s shoes. This is especially important during times of debate and/or game-changing moments.

Arguments from other players likely come from a place of experience, which has influenced their way of thinking. There is no one set way to approach a game. That is, after all, why there's a vote. People get to voice and act on their own opinion.

If you find you need to vent, please come to me in a PM. I'd much rather it there than in the thread where things may get out of control and break down the enjoyment of the game as a whole.

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

thoughts on my post on illwei? it is not very long

I didn't realize you wanted a response.

My point was that I thought Archer was an Elim but selfishly wanted my role to be useful, when the only thing it would be useful for it seemed would be fact checking Archer :P.

@Orlok Tsubodai Why are your first reactions seemingly that of someone who assumes I'm village?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

34 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think my biggest problem with Araris off the top of my head is that they claimed to have a non-epic power at first, when the alignment in the role PM tells you if you're an Epic or not. Reckoner Ally Epic, Reckoner Ally. Araris also has very minimal solving posts in comparison to how many posts he has that are talking about SKs,

You and Orlok are both making a big deal out of this, which is setting off flags for me on both of you. Why would elim!me lie about this and then, before anyone had commented on the claim, change to telling the truth? I'll once again point people to LG 76 where I made a similar mistake.

My lack of solving posts has been due to IRL stuff (mostly homework) combined with the start of the LG.

As Orlok says, I'm unkillable, so the elims would want to vote me out if possible. I will note that something a bit odd happened the cycle that everyone died. I tried to swap with Kas, but the action failed. And since we don't know the OOA, I don't think we can make too reasonable of a guess as to why that happened.

Based on C1 Devo-Archer interaction, I think it's reasonable to believe that Devo is not elim. Doesn't change my discomfort with a SK running around, but right now I'm focusing on the elims.

Let's assume for a moment that both Orlok and Illwei are village. Even if that's wrong, and one/both of them are elim, there should still be other elims hiding out there. But I don't want to get caught up in "vote out all the active players" and end up with a dead thread. Definitely more suspicious of Illwei than Orlok though.

Stick also has an interaction with Archer that I'd read as village on D1.

Going to flag Thaidakar and Karnatheon as village for now as well, since given how the elims were playing things, they definitely wouldn't want to risk losing Archer C1.

C1 VC:

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Matrim's Dice (5): Experience, Ashbringer, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV, Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Karnatheon (2): Kasimir, Araris Valerian, Tani, Amanuensis
_Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity

Honestly, I'd say that JNV is the only other elim I'd guess at here. 

C2 VC:

Quote

Karnatheon (6): Experience, Kasimir, StrikerEZ, Ashbringer, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, Amanuensis
Devotary of Spontaneity (5): Araris Valerian, Karnatheon, Archer, _Stick_, JNV
StrikerEZ (2): STINK, Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Okay, wow. That is a lot of green on Karnatheon. Maybe he was actually elim. I'm wondering how much the elims would have stacked to save a teammate here, given no flip, and Archer's relatively low profile still. Once again, Archer/Stick/JNV/Karnatheon all voted together.

The events of C3 don't seem to be very helpful. We still have the same bloc of non-voters: Dannex, TUA, Szeth.

Haven't gone through all of C4, but in the VC we have Stick and JNV voting together again. I think the elims would prefer Tani to die over Devo, since there was substantial village interest in knocking out Devo, and it's reasonable to assume we'd want to try and pursue her again today. So that makes me dislike TUA and Thaidakar. The side train is Stick and JNV on Illwei. Again, I think in the case of village!Illwei this is something the elims would try and push.

Okay, so I think Thaidakar is pretty likely to be elim at this point, based solely on where his votes have ended up each cycle. I'd guess at one of the 3 consistent non-voters being elim, and probably TUA out of those for randomly voting Tani last cycle. And JNV is my last guess.

[Stick. she/her]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I didn't realize you wanted a response.

My point was that I thought Archer was an Elim but selfishly wanted my role to be useful, when the only thing it would be useful for it seemed would be fact checking Archer :P.

I was talking to Thaid (who promptly ignored it smh :P). But this is still appreciated :P.  

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You and Orlok are both making a big deal out of this, which is setting off flags for me on both of you. Why would elim!me lie about this and then, before anyone had commented on the claim, change to telling the truth? I'll once again point people to LG 76 where I made a similar mistake.

My lack of solving posts has been due to IRL stuff (mostly homework) combined with the start of the LG.

As Orlok says, I'm unkillable, so the elims would want to vote me out if possible. I will note that something a bit odd happened the cycle that everyone died. I tried to swap with Kas, but the action failed. And since we don't know the OOA, I don't think we can make too reasonable of a guess as to why that happened.

Based on C1 Devo-Archer interaction, I think it's reasonable to believe that Devo is not elim. Doesn't change my discomfort with a SK running around, but right now I'm focusing on the elims.

Let's assume for a moment that both Orlok and Illwei are village. Even if that's wrong, and one/both of them are elim, there should still be other elims hiding out there. But I don't want to get caught up in "vote out all the active players" and end up with a dead thread. Definitely more suspicious of Illwei than Orlok though.

Stick also has an interaction with Archer that I'd read as village on D1.

Going to flag Thaidakar and Karnatheon as village for now as well, since given how the elims were playing things, they definitely wouldn't want to risk losing Archer C1.

C1 VC:

Honestly, I'd say that JNV is the only other elim I'd guess at here. 

C2 VC:

Okay, wow. That is a lot of green on Karnatheon. Maybe he was actually elim. I'm wondering how much the elims would have stacked to save a teammate here, given no flip, and Archer's relatively low profile still. Once again, Archer/Stick/JNV/Karnatheon all voted together.

The events of C3 don't seem to be very helpful. We still have the same bloc of non-voters: Dannex, TUA, Szeth.

Haven't gone through all of C4, but in the VC we have Stick and JNV voting together again. I think the elims would prefer Tani to die over Devo, since there was substantial village interest in knocking out Devo, and it's reasonable to assume we'd want to try and pursue her again today. So that makes me dislike TUA and Thaidakar. The side train is Stick and JNV on Illwei. Again, I think in the case of village!Illwei this is something the elims would try and push.

Okay, so I think Thaidakar is pretty likely to be elim at this point, based solely on where his votes have ended up each cycle. I'd guess at one of the 3 consistent non-voters being elim, and probably TUA out of those for randomly voting Tani last cycle. And JNV is my last guess.

Nice train of thought, though I am not a fan of you voting but, whatever. 

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I was talking to Thaid (who promptly ignored it smh :P). But this is still appreciated :P.  

OH sorry I got wrapped in something frustration was saying in a different part of the forum so sorry about that. I think it is an interesting train of thought you have there.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

I was talking to Thaid (who promptly ignored it smh :P). But this is still appreciated :P.  

definitely read that as "thoughts on my post Illwei?" instead of "thoughts on my post on Illwei?" lol nvm

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

how are we not on the second page yet?

Edited February 18, 2022 by Thaidakar the Ghostblood
HAHA JUST AS I SAY IT.

[JNV]

8 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I think the nature of Archer’s role as able to conceal alignments or roles strongly implies other powerful, non-standard eliminator roles.

Archer's role can only hide alignments

Quote

Incinerator: You have the unique ability to burn dead bodies as soon as they appear. You can hide the alignment of the player eliminated in the cycle, but not their role. You can choose to hide either the alignment of a player who died due to vote elimination or due to any other kill but not both types of death in the same cycle.

 

The thing that really bugs me about Araris is this:

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Going to flag Thaidakar and Karnatheon as village for now as well, since given how the elims were playing things, they definitely wouldn't want to risk losing Archer C1.

Later followed by this:

Quote

Okay, so I think Thaidakar is pretty likely to be elim at this point, based solely on where his votes have ended up each cycle. I'd guess at one of the 3 consistent non-voters being elim, and probably TUA out of those for randomly voting Tani last cycle. And JNV is my last guess.

Also is completely ignoring roles and claims and such for analysis which led me to a completely different conclusion about elim guesses. But I don't know if I have a negative opinion because they seem evil or because they find me suspicious. 

 

More categories of people

People that I would like Devotary to kill pretty please

Szeth, STINK, Dannnex (same reasons as last time)

People that are plausibly evil

Araris, Illwei (people have made good arguments about an immortal role and also Illwei has seemed a little hmm but honestly I've been getting very good vibes from Illwei recently)

People who I do not want dead right now

Devotary, Thaidakar, Stick, me (Devotary, Thaidakar, and Stick are rolewise probably evil. I'm me.)

People that I would want dead if I run out of "plausibly evil" people

The Unknown Aon, Orlok (They don't really have a great reason to justify their not evilness but I'm not really finding them suspicious right now (The Unknown Aon only gets a pass because of the Devotary thing and that regular/vanilla debate at the start but hoenstly they seem a bit off and also I could believe that there would be regular elims in theory so after we bur nthrough Araris and llwei they are next))

 

A numbers thought

11 people left. Probably 3 elims. So it's  7 3 1. Worst case everything hits a villager so it's 4 3 1 next time. Elims win at same numbers so if Devotary kills at that point we and we hit an elim we still lose. If I had to guess from the resident black boxes I'd think... Szeth? Maybe? Because I think Dannnex lampshaded a "I can't believe people don't find me suspicious" at one point and I don't think an elim would do that and also STINK had an excuse. 

 

In terms of the vote I'm kind of ambivalent between Araris and Illwei but considering that Araris has to be voted off and Illwei doesn't I'm leaning a bit towards Araris because if need be we can ask Devotary to kill Illwei and we can't with Araris. Also, Illwei has had some okay points. Bye!

[Illwei]

10 hours ago, JNV said:

In terms of the vote I'm kind of ambivalent between Araris and Illwei but considering that Araris has to be voted off and Illwei doesn't I'm leaning a bit towards Araris because if need be we can ask Devotary to kill Illwei and we can't with Araris. Also, Illwei has had some okay points. Bye!

You seem to be okay voting alongside me?

Also leaning village more on JNV for his progression on me.

Araris is probably a villager.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 hours ago, JNV said:

The thing that really bugs me about Araris is this:

Quote

Going to flag Thaidakar and Karnatheon as village for now as well, since given how the elims were playing things, they definitely wouldn't want to risk losing Archer C1.

Later followed by this:

Quote

Okay, so I think Thaidakar is pretty likely to be elim at this point, based solely on where his votes have ended up each cycle. I'd guess at one of the 3 consistent non-voters being elim, and probably TUA out of those for randomly voting Tani last cycle. And JNV is my last guess.

Also is completely ignoring roles and claims and such for analysis which led me to a completely different conclusion about elim guesses. But I don't know if I have a negative opinion because they seem evil or because they find me suspicious. 

Is it not a valid progression of thought? Evidence from D1 has significantly less weight than from later cycles. Also, it’s possible that Archer intended to go down and the D1 votes and some other stuff was just distancing.

I ignored roleclaims because this is a blackout, and because TJ is a troll. We aren’t going to solve the game that way (yeah, Archer and all that, but I doubt his team would have put all their eggs in the fake-claim basket).

I also already said that my swap with Kas failed last cycle, though I don’t know why. But I’m not “immortal” under any definition of the word.

I’m also kinda worried that Illwei has all of my suspects in her top village reads. 

Anyhow, it looks like activity has dropped enough that basically everyone left wants me dead. So I’ll go burn the rest of my energy on the other game.

 

[Illwei]

Stick

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I’m not a fan of the Stick train, but that thought is based on Archer/Stick interactions during the first couple of cycles. I’d ask both @Illwei and @JNV to skim through C1 and C2 and see if you think those interactions make sense as e/e.

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

I think that Araris and JNV are probably village as I also think Stick is suspicious. I still think Devo is an elim, this is mostly a gut feeling but I really think they are.

[Stick. she/her]

46 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Stick

why  

I guess all I can say is that if I were elim, why on earth would I claim my role?? I've only received suspicion because of it. E!Stick could've easily lied about having literally any role less suspicious than this one, probably would've claimed regular, and would've pushed for the elims having the arsonist thing. I was under no pressure to reveal and yet I did because info hogging did not seem like a great plan for the village, we could really use all the info we could get.

[Thaidakar the Ghostblood he/him]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

why  

I guess all I can say is that if I were elim, why on earth would I claim my role?? I've only received suspicion because of it. E!Stick could've easily lied about having literally any role less suspicious than this one, probably would've claimed regular, and would've pushed for the elims having the arsonist thing. I was under no pressure to reveal and yet I did because info hogging did not seem like a great plan for the village, we could really use all the info we could get.

Ya know that is kind of true. an elim would claim as a regular or a neutral. 

[Illwei]

@Araris

if I refuse to vote thaidikar where do you see a compromise

@|TJ|

araris

Edited February 19, 2022 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian he/him]

38 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Araris

if I refuse to vote thaidikar where do you see a compromise

@|TJ|

araris

Can you explain why TUA should come after Devo? Was there a scan/claim that I missed?

Edit: If you have a good reason here, then I'd be fine with any of Szeth/Stink/Dannex, since I need to fill TUA's spot on the team.

Also if more than 6 players would post this cycle, then I potentially wouldn't need to compromise with you... Definitely would prefer a Thaid exe.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

22 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

if your role really could prove/disprove Archer’s claim, I wonder why you didn't just roleclaim to the thread while Archer was still alive if your roleclaim is true, instead of bringing it up later when he had died and you needed to justify your reaction towards his train

The only way Illwei could have proved Archer's claim is by dying, which is a steep cost to test a claim that could and was resolved by killing Archer instead.

21 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, wow. That is a lot of green on Karnatheon. Maybe he was actually elim. I'm wondering how much the elims would have stacked to save a teammate here, given no flip, and Archer's relatively low profile still. Once again, Archer/Stick/JNV/Karnatheon all voted together.

A lot of the Karnatheon vote happened quickly after I claimed 50 minutes before rollover. Karn and I was something like 5-2 against me with a bunch of single votes before that, and the only person to permanently switch to me after that was Karn. If Karn was evil, the elims probably could have gotten me killed unless they were all already voting for me.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I guess all I can say is that if I were elim, why on earth would I claim my role?? I've only received suspicion because of it. E!Stick could've easily lied about having literally any role less suspicious than this one, probably would've claimed regular, and would've pushed for the elims having the arsonist thing. I was under no pressure to reveal and yet I did because info hogging did not seem like a great plan for the village, we could really use all the info we could get.

You couldn't have claimed regular since you'd already mention having a passive ability that let you survive when I attacked you N2, but there were plenty of other things you could have claimed other than a role that accidentally killed two villagers.

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Can you explain why TUA should come after Devo? Was there a scan/claim that I missed?

The basis for this was assuming that TUA started out as a regular villager before getting a role from me. Having been a regular is the only alignment indicative thing I can think of for TUA.

The elims would be invested in voting out v!Araris because he's difficult for them kill unless the elims can use a roleblock/redirect to prevent swaps. E!Araris isn't more of a threat rolewise than any other elim except that it's hard for me to kill him.

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The only way Illwei could have proved Archer's claim is by dying, which is a steep cost to test a claim that could and was resolved by killing Archer instead.

/shrug i never said it was a good idea, it was just me being selfish and wanting to be able to use my role :p. 

@Orlok Tsubodai i dont know if youre just busy or whatnot, but i apologize if my attitude towards you was upsetting enough that you wanted to leave thread.

what is Araris' power again? Does he also have a claimed passive life?

I thought rollover was this morning for some reason. 

@Araris Valerian I won't be voting TUA, a claimed/proven regular unless we kill devo first. Anything else you propose?

If Araris is an Elim, who are their teammates? Do we assume that the existence of devo + karn (vote manip) probably being an elim means that 3 elims was the whole team?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

what is Araris' power again? Does he also have a claimed passive life?

Araris can swap himself with another player, so actions targeting them hit him and vice versa. This is pretty much confirmed but may have limitations we don't know about.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

You know what, I'm gonna trust Illwei on this one. Stick. I think that Archer/Stick would be good enough to doctor the interactions I looked at, none of which really put a lot of pressure on Archer in the first place. Stick is also in the 4-person voter bloc that stuck together for a while, which I figure has at least one elim.

And I'd really appreciate if some more people would vote. Activity level have been pretty abysmal this cycle. Don't really want a last minute "hammer" like what happened last cycle.

I'm also starting to get a bit paranoid of a Devo/Illwei/Orlok team, but I'm going to channel advice I've given to Kas and shove that into a dark corner of my mind and hope I don't get brutally murdered for it. Probably wouldn't be possible for me to vote out any of those folks regardless.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[Illwei]

50 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You know what, I'm gonna trust Illwei on this one. Stick. I think that Archer/Stick would be good enough to doctor the interactions I looked at, none of which really put a lot of pressure on Archer in the first place. Stick is also in the 4-person voter bloc that stuck together for a while, which I figure has at least one elim.

And I'd really appreciate if some more people would vote. Activity level have been pretty abysmal this cycle. Don't really want a last minute "hammer" like what happened last cycle.

I'm also starting to get a bit paranoid of a Devo/Illwei/Orlok team, but I'm going to channel advice I've given to Kas and shove that into a dark corner of my mind and hope I don't get brutally murdered for it. Probably wouldn't be possible for me to vote out any of those folks regardless.

I ask if there's someone you think can be an Elim besides TUA, when you seemed to not want to vote Stick at all before, and now you seem willing to? Why the change?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I ask if there's someone you think can be an Elim besides TUA, when you seemed to not want to vote Stick at all before, and now you seem willing to? Why the change?

Honestly I'm confused, and we haven't really had great discussion in the thread outside of D1 and D2, when we didn't get flips. I'm still partial to the idea that Karn was an elim, and that possibly many of the elims voted opposite him, which includes Stick.

My reasoning on Stick has also changed throughout the game. During C1 I was mostly uncomfortable with how the votes fell out on her. When I did my reread of the game, the main things that stuck out to me about Stick were her interactions with Archer's role claim; in particular she seemed pretty doubtful of what Archer was claiming.

And right now I would probably prefer to vote out Dannex or Stink or Szeth (Dannex first, since the other two have IRL reasons for being inactive I think), but with the low participation thus far this cycle, I don't want to run into what happened last cycle.