Mid-Range Game 54: Fading Glory

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

Because SKs are always quite weak. I've found that in the place where o started playing Social Deduction, Town of Salem, that the SK role had defense against mafia, other SKs, and vigilantes, but not werewolves, pirates, the jailor, or the lynch. So fairly protected. I also disagree with your earlier analysis slightly, I agree they would go for Warrior, unless they are fairly trusted and therefore are under danger of the elim kill, in which case they would go for Urchin.

Well, they are standard. Standard roles, sometimes with a twist. If you had actually gone on to the next part, you would have seen me deviate from this pattern because those roles are not standard.

You overplay the soother in my opinion, although I didn't look into it that much in my original post. The elims having vote manipulation is customary, although not guaranteed. They also don't automatically make village lose a tie, since there is a guaranteed village rioter, a roleblocking role, and a roleblocking item, which should be fairly common. So the chances of the rioter canceling it out or the it getting roleblocked are decently high.

And that's omission to prove a point.

As a counterpoint, the village rioter doesn’t have information as to the alignment of those on the lynch, whereas the eliminator soother knows exactly how they ought to act to guarantee a village lynch. I don’t think I am underplaying the impact on balance here.

You’re right to point out roleblocking affects the soother, however - which I hadn’t considered, thinking only of its impact on kills.

[+Ed Venture]

44 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I would question, though, your reluctance to see vigilante kills used. Historically, vigilante kills are more accurate than the lynch, and we need eliminator deaths if we want to win.

My reluctance is multipart. First, a dislike of the multitude of ways for people to get access to kills. Second, the number of ways to kill starting even just on cycle one. And three, the higher risk that comes from a vigilante kill compared to the lynch. I can admit that having access to such a kill is useful, but only in the hands of someone that we can trust. And with the elim team having access to additional kills, combined with the lack of of a way to determine alignment, I think it is best to stay away from kills. You could call what I am saying preformative, that is fine. But murder does equal bad. And it is for that reason that I am removing my vote on Mage who seems decent enough. 

In other news, I am doubtful that Danex is all joking at the sword vote. That on top of outright saying they are vanilla, this seems much more preformative than any overdramatic rules analysis.

[|TJ| he/him]

17 hours ago, ashwastaken said:

She turned to the first person she saw, folding her arms. “Lai (TJ),” she said, nodding her head “do you mind telling all of us why you aren’t a part of the heritage faction? Of course, you shouldn’t be. All the heritage faction does is spread lies about our past and squander power they don’t deserve. Now they spread lies about who they are. So just tell me, why wouldn’t you be one of them?” She unfolded her arms, smiling as though she hadn’t a fear in the world. “Don’t worry though. I do trust you. I just need some genuine discussion going on here. Speaking of which, how many of the heritage faction do you reckon are here?”

"Hiya! Bold of you to assume that I'm not one of them huehuehue but then again of couse I'm always known as the goody two-shoes fella around here. If ya don't believe me, you can ask around! Glory Shall Prevail! But then of course you shouldn't believe everything I say, my actions will speak better than words. They do call me Lai-ar after all hahahahahaha" 

---

Regarding your question about the numbers, it's been a while since I've actually speculated elim numbers in games actually. I've seen instances where players get tunneled onto a certain [false] number and then make assumptions on that number and lose the game based on those assumptions so I just stopped caring about speculating them. Having said that, my earlier calculation method was [(33% of total players) - 1] as the worst case scenario, that brings us to 3 elims, which I think is likely as well. 

15 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Tani. Stating that they’re a villager and appealing for sympathy for doing so raises my hackles enough for a D1 lynch vote.

Tani did indeed do the same thing last game - as in saying she didn't get the desired alignment without actually revealing her alignment. Not sure behind the intent here to state it again, could be looking for village cred [thinking doing similar stuff as last time indicates similar alignment], but gut reading this as village.

5 hours ago, Danex said:

well, I see your stab vote, and I'll raise you the newly invented mega-ultra-better-than-a normal-stab-vote Sword vote.
a poke vote is a vote on a random person D1
a stab vote is a poke vote on a person that lasts the entirety of D1
a sword vote is a stab vote that lasts entire games via multiple D1s

therefore
TJ

okay so that's two consecutive games you've stab voted me in D1, and you were elim in the last game who didn't bother to change his vote so that's making me seriously side-eye this. Also, stab vote is a poke vote on a person that lasts the entirety of D1 if nothing else is better. I've always mentioned my suspicion on Araris doing it to skate by without giving a reason for a D1 vote and you explicitly said you will probably not move your vote, which is suspicious. Dannex. You saying you're doing it consciously does not make it better. 

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

The rules are explicit that the eliminators have a vote canceller, which (until they're killed) means that tied lynches ought only to result in a village death.  

Not necessarily, we have a vote mover as well, even more powerful than a simple Soother, especially since it seems to be a Riot but without the self-vote cancel. 

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'm not going to quote the rest of your post - I think there's enough so far for me to retract on Tani and vote on The Unknown Order.

I've gone down with road and voted out TUO for seemingly stating the obvious many a times. Since the first game he did this and we caught him doing this as a elim, I misvoted him a ton of times, so don't wanna go there just yet. 

I do note that you've mentioned them downplaying the importance elim vote manip but then ignoring the presence of village vote manip. 

First re-glance of rules and it looks like there are a looooot of kills for a 13 player game. We do have quite a few roleblocks as well. But still think there are lots of kills so expecting very less numbers of Striker/Scepter. 

Edit: I started typing this out at the end of page 1 and I did not realize there's stuff in page 2 so some stuff might have been ninja'd.

Edited November 7, 2021 by |TJ|

[Mat he/him]

Reminder (half for myself) that Daylight Savings Time is a thing that exists! And happened. This isn’t changing rollover time, but it is effectively giving you guys an extra hour. Cycle still ends 1pm PST tomorrow.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 hours ago, Ed Venture said:

But murder does equal bad.

Are we playing the same game?  Murder is the highest form of compliment in these parts. The more the better, I say. If anyone is feeling squeamish (which I sort of hope you aren't), feel free to hit me. I've died close to a hundred times in these games, so once more shouldn't upset me too much. I can enjoy my porch quite nicely from the afterlife.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I should follow the thread more 

I’m around, though. Busy but around.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I would be very, very surprised if the eliminators had a way to kill in addition to their normal kill. If we have 9-3-1, or even 10-2-1, we're not many cycles from an early LyLo, given the eliminator vote cancelling potential.

They wouldn't have a consistent kill, but I could see the Heritage Arbiter starting with a scepter if art was assigned deliberately, and then there's a 1/3 chance of that if art was rolled randomly. Rememberer is a stretch and Striker is too much. I could see HA w/ scepter + Bloodsealer + vanilla as elims.

I'm not thinking Venture would be so publicly against village kill abilities as an elim, even though it would be to the elims' benefit for the village not to use kills.

[Steeldancer he/him]

@Orlok TsubodaiI got back from my mission about 4.5 months ago, and then I took a break again once I hit college again. Either way

I did some math today, and I noticed potentially we could have 4 kills a turn. Elim kill, sk kill, exe and role kill. That's lot of death, and about as much math as I still know how to do. However the SK doesn't get their kill up right away, so at least for the time being that's ok. At that rate with 13 people, and bases on my role analysis a team of probably 3 people, that would mean like 3, 4 cycles until LYLO? That's... Cool I guess. Doesn't really give me any guidance on who to vote for. Last couple times I got jumped on for poke voting and then forgetting about that. So, for the moment I'm going to hold off voting until I actually have someone I'm suspicious of. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. Faleast will hopefully appear tomorrow. For now, it's just me. 

A lot of kills, a lot of roles with the ability to stop kills. And because D1, not a lot to go off of... except maybe this.

@|TJ|, you claim to have written your voting-Dannex post without reading page 2, where Ed Venture voted for Dannex for similar reasons. How does this make you feel?

@Ed Venture, TJ voted for Dannex for similar reasons as yours, about 30 minutes later, but allegedly without seeing your vote put in place. How does this make you feel?

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@|TJ|, you claim to have written your voting-Dannex post without reading page 2, where Ed Venture voted for Dannex for similar reasons. How does this make you feel?

Makes me feel better about Venture tbh. It was a bit more personal for me, and Venture did not have the info from the last game, i.e. Danex was elim last time and that he voted for me D1 as well. Caring about the mobility of votes seems more likely to have come from a village mindset and feel better about the mindmeld because he posted about it first. 

I did agree with Orlok earlier though, felt like wordings of Venture's first post was a bit performative which is why the vote makes me feel better about them.

[ashwastaken]

Ok so with the Danex lynch, my gut is going “yes lynch them they hid last game” but it might just be that last game they were elim. That said, I don’t really like their vote on TJ either.

Sorry I’ll try for more analysis later, it’s not the weekend so I won’t be quite as active.

[+Ed Venture]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@Ed Venture, TJ voted for Dannex for similar reasons as yours, about 30 minutes later, but allegedly without seeing your vote put in place. How does this make you feel?

I am willing to believe that TJ is telling the truth. However in the case of a bad flip, I will think that perhaps their not seeing the next page could be a lie, and them hopping on my vote for nearly the same reason as me is quite suspicious. 
My issue is...thought I think a C1 lynch will be important, I don't know about any of the last game context about Dannex dodging the lynch. Therefore, I worry about people piling on Dannex to get revenge, so I may be removing my vote in the future, if a better lynch candidate appears

Edit: Dannex threatening a vote for the rest of the game was a bad move to start off with. A stab vote, a vote sent before any analysis is done, just to kill someone, will always read as slightly elim to me, unlike Poke votes, which are used to start a discussion. So I doubt a better lynch will be showing up. I do hope we vote right.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Ed Venture
Wording + a few extra thoughts

[SeaDragonet he/him]

On 11/7/2021 at 3:36 AM, Danex said:

well, I see your stab vote, and I'll raise you the newly invented mega-ultra-better-than-a normal-stab-vote Sword vote.
a poke vote is a vote on a random person D1
a stab vote is a poke vote on a person that lasts the entirety of D1
a sword vote is a stab vote that lasts entire games via multiple D1s

Hello all, I am a little confused about this whole "poke vote stab vote sword vote" thing. Is this part of the rules, or just something y'all made up?

On 11/7/2021 at 7:24 AM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

TJ - (1): Ashwastaken
Danex - (1): Araris
Tani - (0): Orlok <1>
Mage - (1): Ed Venture
Ed Venture - (1): Mage
TJ - (1): Danex
The Unknown Order - (1): Orlok <2>

What are the <> here? Are those updated votes or something?

I need to go and do a writing assignment now, so I will be back in a little bit.

[danex he/him]

On 11/7/2021 at 6:49 AM, |TJ| said:

okay so that's two consecutive games you've stab voted me in D1

yes thats the point

2 hours ago, Ed Venture said:

Dannex threatening a vote for the rest of the game was a bad move to start off with.

*rest of D1 and all future D1s for the rest of forever

 

alr
so
impressions
1. Araris is vil
2. Ed is 10000000000% elim

 

read this for me:

2 hours ago, Ed Venture said:

I do hope we vote right.

is this not the most blatant elim tell you've ever read?
it is. it is the most blatant elim tell. 
it's so blatant that if this game had a joker I'd think he was that and was trying to look sus.

 

43 minutes ago, SeaDragonet said:

Hello all, I am a little confused about this whole "poke vote stab vote sword vote" thing. Is this part of the rules, or just something y'all made up?

a stab vote is smthn araris made up a while ago
my sword vote is a stupid parody of it that i just made up

Edited November 8, 2021 by Danex

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I think “poke vote” is a semi-official term used in online mafia. Around here at least, it means a vote that will go away once the target makes any sort of response. Several members of our community got frustrated with the fact that some players would just place poke votes and not really contribute to discussion, so I coined the term “stab vote” to refer to a vote with no backing that won’t necessarily go away once a response is given. The point being to create a serious threat of death. That happened maybe around a year ago.

Danex, on the other hand, accidentally(? because he was elim) left his vote on TJ all of D1 in our last game. So now he’s trying to one-up my creation, which I think is justification for me to continue voting him for a bit longer .

[SeaDragonet he/him]

I definitely see where Danex is coming from here

38 minutes ago, Danex said:

is this not the most blatant elim tell you've ever read?
it is. it is the most blatant elim tell. 
it's so blatant that if this game had a joker I'd think he was that and was trying to look sus.

Then again, the fact that Danex voted TJ again after apparently voting him the whole of last D1 last game and then turning out to be the elim is rather sus. Do we have access to the previous games elim pm to see if he talked about that there?

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Ed Venture said:

I am willing to believe that TJ is telling the truth.

For further proof, I spoke about Orlok ignoring village vote manipulation which was brought up by TUO and replied to by Orlok in page 2, so there wouldn't have been any need for me to bring up an issue already closed. Also, all my quotes from the post would only be from page 1.

45 minutes ago, Danex said:

yes thats the point

My question is why are you making this point??

45 minutes ago, Danex said:

3 hours ago, Ed Venture said:

I do hope we vote right.

is this not the most blatant elim tell you've ever read?

About this - this is what I meant when I said Venture's wordings sound performative. While it's not 'the most blatant elim tell', it does stand out.

Edit: 

2 minutes ago, SeaDragonet said:

Do we have access to the previous games elim pm to see if he talked about that there?

Yeah, just go here and click on the Elim Doc link.

Edited November 8, 2021 by |TJ|

[SeaDragonet he/him]

41 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Yeah, just go here and click on the Elim Doc link.

Ty, I did not see anything about it.

[danex he/him]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Danex, on the other hand, accidentally(? because he was elim)

Oh yeah that was just actually an accident
I had work
couldn't be on to change it
also, only slightly related, but we didn't kill Tani for her vote on me either. Just cuz she was inactive. =P

 

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

My question is why are you making this point??

2 hours ago, SeaDragonet said:

Then again, the fact that Danex voted TJ again after apparently voting him the whole of last D1 last game and then turning out to be the elim is rather sus.

smh
lemme explain
ill be very clear this time

"haha funi"

[SeaDragonet he/him]

33 minutes ago, Danex said:

smh
lemme explain
ill be very clear this time

"haha funi"

In another elimination group I am in (unrelated to se, and it is on a completely different platform) there is one guy who constantly makes jokes like that. Now idk if that is how you play, but he destroys us when he ends up being mafia bc we do not see him voting random people as sus.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Matrim's Dice, are we able to request an accurate vote count?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

@Matrim's Dice, are we able to request an accurate vote count?

I don't see why not. I try to always have one on hand.

I believe this is correct:

• |TJ| (1): Danex
• Danex (3): Araris Valerian, Ed Venture, |TJ|
• Ed Venture (1): Mage
• The Unknown Order (1): Orlok Tsubodai

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Danex, is there a reason you have me as village? Likewise, is there a reason you aren't voting for Venture (especially since Venture has a vote and would be a candidate for this round)? Presumably "haha fun" isn't the only one?

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

On 07/11/2021 at 8:36 AM, Danex said:

Man, Mat makes me vanilla village, you hit me with a stab vote, y'all really just want to get back at me for 81 don'tcha? 

well, I see your stab vote, and I'll raise you the newly invented mega-ultra-better-than-a normal-stab-vote Sword vote.
a poke vote is a vote on a random person D1
a stab vote is a poke vote on a person that lasts the entirety of D1
a sword vote is a stab vote that lasts entire games via multiple D1s

therefore
TJ

As far as I can tell this is the post behind the lynch on Danex.

Beyond being slightly ridiculous, it doesn’t come across to me as massively suspicious - I read it as genuinely trying to be funny/silly.

I’d be more inclined to vote on SeaDragonet, for suggesting that it’s suspicious that Danex chose the same target as last game, which I just can’t see - @SeaDragonet, would you mind explaining your rationale here?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

As far as I can tell this is the post behind the lynch on Danex.

Beyond being slightly ridiculous, it doesn’t come across to me as massively suspicious - I read it as genuinely trying to be funny/silly.

I’d be more inclined to vote on SeaDragonet, for suggesting that it’s suspicious that Danex chose the same target as last game, which I just can’t see - @SeaDragonet, would you mind explaining your rationale here?

I mostly agree, but I'd still like to hear a bit more from Danex before moving my vote.