Mid-Range Game 54: Fading Glory

[Quivil]

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

do you think TUO was right/honest about people's participation in the C1 vote, and if so, who among those people is most suspicious. If not, why should I not vote you out?

Yes, and I suspect Devo most. I haven't looked at the others yet.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

28 minutes ago, Tani said:

Yes, and I suspect Devo most. I haven't looked at the others yet.

But Devotary didn't vote D1. TUO said that he thought 2/6 of the people that voted D1 were elims. So if you agree with him, that doesn't explain finding Devotary suspicious. If you don't agree with him, it means that more of the elims are in the non-voting group, which you are also in. So in that case, why should we not kill you?

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm feeling bad about Mage as well, but some of that is colored by my suspicion of TUO, and the timing of votes last cycle.

What does this mean, you're suspecting Mage because of your suspicion on TUO?

Also, I'm shifting to TUO, vote on him didn't pick up last cycle and it looks like it's not gonna pick up this cycle too, so I'm sensing resistance. 

[Steel]

[Quivil]

@Araris Valerian

I agree with TUO.

Also, I haven't noticed about most people, but I suspect Devo.

I don't remember the people who voted D1.

And you really don't want me to say why you shouldn't kill me.

Why shouldn't we kill you?

Edited November 12, 2021 by Tani

[Araris Valerian he/him]

44 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

What does this mean, you're suspecting Mage because of your suspicion on TUO?

When he voted Venture, TUO also had a vote, and Mage mentioned a suspicion of TUO. So they could be e/e together.

 

18 minutes ago, Tani said:

@Araris Valerian

I agree with TUO.

Also, I haven't noticed about most people, but I suspect Devo.

I don't remember the people who voted D1.

And you really don't want me to say why you shouldn't kill me.

Why shouldn't we kill you?

The list of people that voted D1 that are also still alive is myself, TJ, Mage, and Orlok. If you agree with TUO, then you think 2 of these 4 players are elim. Any thoughts on which ones they might be? And depending on how much confidence you have in that suspicion versus your agreement with TUO, you might consider changing your vote, since 50% odds is pretty good for catching an elim.

And I'm not worried about y'all killing me off. The elims, sure. But I'm pretty sure if you voted me out then the thread would mostly die (based on the content level this turn, at least) and the elims just get a free win. I've also proposed a couple of alternatives to myself, and I think most people will find those more attractive than voting for me.

[Mage he/him]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

When he voted Venture, TUO also had , and Mage mentioned a suspicion of TUO. So they could be e/e together.

Please elaborate. I'm not sure I follow your logic.

Also, I'm not sure that the people who voted C1 should be relevant because by the rules of this game someone is going to die every day even without a majority. Therefore those who voted C1 are the ones who didn't want randomness. That could be village or elim, because if no one voted everyone had an equal chance of dying.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Sorry for not being around - turns out I presently just don’t have the capacity to play SE.

I’ll join the vote on The Unknown Order for now

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

I'm not going to defend this, because none of you will be swayed. I know because I've tried and everybody still suspects me. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

11 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I'm not going to defend this, because none of you will be swayed. I know because I've tried and everybody still suspects me. 

I realize that I kinda skimmed over your response post earlier, so I'll try and answer those questions.

Quote

Why do you expect me to be on a team with my biggest sus? Do you think I'm trying to bus? 

Maybe. I have Devotary slashed with Sea, and would preferentially vote out Sea over Devotary. But distancing is also a common elim tactic. It could also be that neither of those two are elim and instead Mage or Orlok is the last one, in this scenario.

Quote

Also, you state that me being village doesn't give much info, but you also already want to exe one of my teammates and I want to exe one of two potential teammates, so you have an extra vote either way. And... I'm pretty sure TJ is the only one who wants me dead other than you. Why not take the three votes on Devo? Do you really trust them a lot or something? Why not take the 2+ votes on Steel? Why fixate on me?

Well, in a lot of cases someone flipping elim doesn't give tons of info, unfortunately. Steel and Devotary are both suspicious, but neither of them made sweeping statements about the voting patterns of the elim team like you. I'd probably prefer to vote out Steel over Devotary though, based on the arguments TJ has made.

Quote

You also state that not much sticks out about TJ, and they aren't pushing their votes enough in your opinion. You point out they their reasoning is flawed, but don't seem to distrust them. What would you say your read on them is?

TJ is probably my strongest village read, but it's fairly weak. There just hasn't been a lot of discussion this game to get reads from, because lots of people aren't voting or talking. I also feel like TJ is similar to  the recent LG, when he was village. I do think elim!TJ would fit with your view of the D1 votes, and it would be nice to confirm whether or not any elims were in danger during D1.

Quote

Why do you exclude Tani from being elim? I don't think they are, but it never really seems like an option in your posts.

Tani could be elim, but I don't think she'd be one with you, and my post is about what might make sense if you are elim. I mentioned somewhere that she's been sheeping you a lot. That could be lazy elim play, but idk. I wouldn't mind someone using a NK on her.

Quote

I'll get back to you on who I suspect as elims from d1 voting. I've tried to put it together several times now but haven't gotten it in writing yet.

I'd still be interested in hearing this. The person I suspect most from that group is Mage, and I'd probably be willing to switch onto him this cycle. Orlok would be next and I wouldn't vote for TJ (or myself) this cycle.

1 hour ago, Mage said:

Also, I'm not sure that the people who voted C1 should be relevant because by the rules of this game someone is going to die every day even without a majority. Therefore those who voted C1 are the ones who didn't want randomness. That could be village or elim, because if no one voted everyone had an equal chance of dying.

So do you think that if TJ is village, and hence all the potential C1 vote options were villagers, that any elims would have bothered to vote? At some point, it became clear that the outcome wouldn't be random, so I disagree with your stance here pretty strongly.

[Mat he/him]

An hour fifteen remain in the cycle!

Vote count:

• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Tani
• Steeldancer (1): Mage
• The Unknown Order (3): Araris Valerian, |TJ|, Orlok Tsubodai

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Giving up tends to be more village than elim. I think saying which of TJ, Araris, Mage, and Orlok you suspect as the 4 living D1 voters would have helped @The Unknown Order. I'm still more suspicious of Steeldancer than TUO even though this is mostly just a feeling. I don't believe Tani would be going after me like this if she was an elim. Other reads are based of whether Steel is evil, such as an Araris/Steel (pushing discussion to not-Steel/bringing up Araris as one of only two people just to say he's NAI) team which wouldn't say anything about the other alignment if one of them is village.

[Mat he/him]

Time!

[Mat he/him]

MR54: Cycle Four: Hearing the Echo

Shoi knew that his people were disliked. Bloodsealing wasn't a popular hobby, and he understood that, but he also knew that everyone else didn't understand. What was haunting and disturbing to them was beautiful and fulfilling to him. His pets were everything. He tried to explain, but they wouldn't listen.

Shoi had figured it was only a matter of time before the arbiters threw out the Bloodsealer, but he had hoped he would last a little longer.

*   *   *

In the dead of night, a figure crept through the palace. The Glory Faction was crumbling, and they were behind it! What a thrill it was. Heritage was a much more important value, and soon the Rose Empire would know it once more.

A few things had to be done first, though. The figure pushed open a door with careful precision, making sure the motion was silent. Their steps echoed through the chamber as they clicked on the tile floor.

Soon after they exited in the same manner, leaving behind the limp body of Locke Tekiel.

---

The Unknown Order has been executed! They were a Bloodsealer for the Glory Faction!

Orlok Tsubodai has been killed! He was a member of the Glory Faction!

Vote Count:

• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Tani
• Steeldancer (2): Mage, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Unknown Order (3): Araris Valerian, |TJ|, Orlok Tsubodai

Cycle Four has begun! It will end in about 48 hours, on Friday, November 12th, at 1pm PST. 

• There will be an execution today, with no vote minimum. Tied votes will result in a decision by RNG.
• PMs are open, 1-on-1 only. Please include myself and Elandera in any PMs you create.
• Each player is allotted a single action per cycle. Don’t forget to use it!
• There is an inactivity filter of two cycles. Failure to post in this time frame will result in removal or replacement. @Steeldancer and @SeaDragonet are being warned for inactivity.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. The Unknown Order - Shoi - Bloodsealer
2. Danex - Glory Faction
3. @SeaDragonet - Theo
4. ashwastaken - Ill - Soul Forger
5. Ashbringer - Faleast - Rememberer
6. @Mage - Gaivan
7. @Araris Valerian - Araolis
8. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel - Glory Faction
9. @|TJ| - Lai
10. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Zama
11. Ed Venture - Sha Lou - Glory Faction
12. @Tani - Wei
13. @Steeldancer - Steel

 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

 

Cycle ended almost an hour ago, Tani :P.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Tani said:

Do you want me to hide the post?

And sri.

That was the goal, yeah  You're good.

[Quivil]

There's seven of us left. A few (1-4) are Elim. It can't be 4, cuz then the elims woulda won already.

 

I trust Devo, I think.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Tani

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I'm thinking that maybe someone else should do the thinking this cycle. Last cycle too much of the activity (the little that there was) was just responding to me.

[Quivil]

Are suspicions most useful for villagers or elims?

Clarification edit: Sus lists, not just suspicions.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Tani

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Are suspicions most useful for villagers or elims?

Clarification edit: Sus lists, not just suspicions.

I mean they help out both teams, but they help the village more, since elims can coordinate without using the thread.

[Mage he/him]

Araris, sorry gancho. You were the main proponent of both Venture and TUO and they both turned out village. That is starting to get suspicious. I am open to changing my mind, but that is where I currently stand.

Also, in response to your comment last cycle about whether C1 votes matter: your logic convinced me. The C1 votes should matter, because at some point it went from random chance to Danex is gonna die.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Mage said:

Araris, sorry gancho. You were the main proponent of both Venture and TUO and they both turned out village. That is starting to get suspicious. I am open to changing my mind, but that is where I currently stand.

Also, in response to your comment last cycle about whether C1 votes matter: your logic convinced me. The C1 votes should matter, because at some point it went from random chance to Danex is gonna die.

I mean, sure. If you can convince the others, then go ahead and vote me out. Like I said, I’m leaving the thinking to y’all this cycle. It’s hard to solve the game when people don’t do back and forth with you, and last cycle felt like I was just talking to myself. My gut on the elim team right now is something like TJ, Mage, Steel. And if there actually are 3 elims (there could just be 2), then this is LyLo.

[Mage he/him]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I mean, sure. If you can convince the others, then go ahead and vote me out. Like I said, I’m leaving the thinking to y’all this cycle.

Then think I shall. Here are my reads on all of the remaining players.

Sea Dragonet: I feel like I haven't seen him since C1, though looking back he was decently active in C2. He was part of the Venture voting train (as was I, so...). He is new, so I'm gonna cut him some slack. Pretty neutral on the read but leaning toward Elim on gut.

Mage: Village, by GM PM

Araris: My reasoning from my last post. I probably wouldn't suspect him if he had just been wrong twice, but the fact that he was the leader in both of these votes makes me a bit suspicious. Elim. He is right though when they say that this thread would be dead without him. Elim or not we either need to not kill him, or step up our activity to win.

TJ: Voted for Venture out of self preservation. That I understand. Not dying is good. He started out voting Steel last cycle, but switched to TUO. Weren't as ardent about either of those as Araris though. Village?

Devo: Claims IRL conflicts and saying everything they need to say in few posts. That's fair. Doesn't really change my suspicion. Everyone was suspicious of them in the past few cycles, though I am not sure why because I really have no idea what I am doing. Something to do with Venture, and when he flipped vil that makes them maybe a little less suspicious, maybe more. Going on gut and a little evidence mild Elim.

Tani: Seems quite suspicious to me. The comment about wanting to help the elims could have been in jest, but my paranoia is telling me that it's sus. The question about scepters also seems like too much. That could have been done in a PM. Also she very quickly switched from suspecting Devo to trusting them. All these things are kind of tipping me off. Also her comment about whether sus lists are helping village or elim...well Tani, if you are elim, I hope this list helps you know how to avoid my suspicion. Elim.

Steeldancer: His inactivity is notable. Honestly after reading through his posts I don't know what to think, so...neutral.

These are my thoughts. It would be good to hear everyone else's.

[Steeldancer he/him]

AAKK I AM SO SORRY
This week kind of went insane in terms of workload and I literally did not remember this game until right now. Unfortunately my life won't be calm until my concert tomorrow evening is over, so I'm going to hold off on making any game related post until then. I apologize profusely, RL just kind of hit me like a brick again. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Again the Heritage Arbiter does nothing. It's possible they would have missed my vote and also possible they would have accepted 3-2 even if Steel is evil.

Theoretically we still have two confirmed village roles out there who could narrow down the suspects list, or get a 1v1 if there's a counterclaim. Assuming it is 4-3 though, exing an elim but having the Glory Arbiter get killed means the elims could force a tie the next two cycles unless the Emperor gets lucky with the redirect or there's a Striker out there who hasn't done anything yet etc.

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright, here are my reads : 

SeaDragonet - Not likely to be elim because for earlier comment about not voting the entire game [and sorta following through, they voted in D2 but it was kinda meaningless]. If Steel is elim, unlikely to be e/e with them because of apathy towards Steel vote last cycle. Also, kinda irrelevant to discussion because we're not voting out someone who's going to be inactive-killed anyway. However, they would be a good HA candidate if we believe the absence of vote cancel is due to inactivity and not deliberate. I do believe that it is deliberate and, meta-speaking here, Mat might not make a new player as the head elim. 

Mage - Voted in two consecutive cycles for Venture. Did not mention any prior suspicion [or read, actually] about Araris prior to the vote.

Araris - Endgame Araris is always difficult for me to read because I always tend to suspect Araris in the earlier stages of the game and always village read Araris if he makes it to the endgame. So wanting to village read, but couple of things that's ticking me off is the 'sitting back this cycle' thing. I mean, I do get the feeling of being frustrated at the other villagers for the lack of discussion, but at the same time I've seen elims lead the vote trains for cycles and then saying they'll sit back when there's heat on them. 

Devotary - Don't remember much of Devo tbh, the one thing I found suspicious was how far the Venture train was further from the Devo train. 

Steel - Last cycle's vote was very similar to first cycle's vote. Danex - Venture and TUO - Steel both at 3 - 2 votes and the absence of vote cancel in both cycles. My guess is that elims wanted to tie up Steel for the ML this cycle because it's likely we're at lylo. Since Venture ended up village, I'm leaning towards Steel being village as well. Also, chances of Steel being elim is too less because this late in the game there's no point in risking a vote shift, especially since there was evidence of vote shift in the previous cycle. 

Tani - Again, I've got nothing, but still kinda gut reading them village. 

Voting for Mage. Devotary > Araris >= SeaDragonet > Steel > Tani - Willingness to shift to others in the decreasing order. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by |TJ|