Mid-Range Game 54: Fading Glory

[Quivil]

Devo said in PM that he got redirected. He hasn't claimed anything else.

He also assumes I'm the Emperor.

 

I feel like we're at the point where we can't make any mistakes, and I think Mage is right about Araris.

 

Edit: Also, Araris fits TUO's idea and look where TUO is now.

Edit: Also, don't be counting on me this cycle because I'm not going to Shard on Sunday or after about five-ish my time (which is Quinn's time too)

Edited November 13, 2021 by Tani

[Araris Valerian he/him]

38 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Araris - Endgame Araris is always difficult for me to read because I always tend to suspect Araris in the earlier stages of the game and always village read Araris if he makes it to the endgame. So wanting to village read, but couple of things that's ticking me off is the 'sitting back this cycle' thing. I mean, I do get the feeling of being frustrated at the other villagers for the lack of discussion, but at the same time I've seen elims lead the vote trains for cycles and then saying they'll sit back when there's heat on them. 

The purpose of sitting back this cycle is to give everyone else room to think for themselves, which has already happened more than last cycle.

24 minutes ago, Tani said:

Devo said in PM that he got redirected. He hasn't claimed anything else.

He also assumes I'm the Emperor.

 

I feel like we're at the point where we can't make any mistakes, and I think Mage is right about Araris.

 

Edit: Also, Araris fits TUO's idea and look where TUO is now.

Edit: Also, don't be counting on me this cycle because I'm not going to Shard on Sunday or after about five-ish my time (which is Quinn's time too)

When you have time, do you think you can summarize your reasons for suspecting me in your own words, without directly referencing what other players have said? In particular, what do you think Mage is right about and why, and what exactly did TUO say that I fit, and why would that be a reason for elim!me to vote him out?

[Quivil]

No.

Like Mage said, you were the Head Mobster of the last two lynches.

TUO said elims would likely be voters on D1 and not talk much.

You admitted that you fit that.

TJ said they've seen what you're doing before, where elims lead lynches and then back off activity-wise when people start to be suspicious.

My own part: I feel like you were talking so much the last two cycles for two reasons mostly: 1) So we won't suspect you of matching TUO's elim profile as much. 2) Because you can successfully get us to misexe while still talking a lot.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

49 minutes ago, Tani said:

No.

Like Mage said, you were the Head Mobster of the last two lynches.

TUO said elims would likely be voters on D1 and not talk much.

You admitted that you fit that.

TJ said they've seen what you're doing before, where elims lead lynches and then back off activity-wise when people start to be suspicious.

My own part: I feel like you were talking so much the last two cycles for two reasons mostly: 1) So we won't suspect you of matching TUO's elim profile as much. 2) Because you can successfully get us to misexe while still talking a lot.

I guess if you want to look at LG 81, you will see that the village voted village!me out on LyLo for pretty similar reasons; I was active and voted on all of the successful executions, which all happened to be village. Edit: Anyone considering voting for me this cycle, please go read the last day of LG 81, and see if your logic still points to me being elim.

I don't think anyone but you actually agreed (or agrees now) with TUO's elim profile. This is part of why people were willing to vote him out last cycle (the other part being that he never actually voted for anyone with that profile). Also, I basically always vote D1. This is NAI behavior for me. I invented the Stab Vote as a villager. So if you think this makes me elim, you should just vote me out every single game. 

If I hadn't said anything last cycle, probably Steel would have died. The previous cycle, Venture would have died quite easily without my interference. So if you think the point of my talking has been to cause misexes, presumably you think Steel is elim? And Devotary too, since she had the second most votes C2?

Edited November 13, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Araris Valerian he/him]

It's been a while, and this is a separate thought, but I agree with TJ about Mage. This is sort of a retaliatory vote in the sense that I think Mage is using the same elim logic that was used to exe me in the LG.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Araris Valerian

[Mage he/him]

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess if you want to look at LG 81, you will see that voted village!me out on LyLo for pretty similar reasons; I was active and voted on all of the successful executions, which all happened to be village. Edit: Anyone considering voting for me this cycle, please go read the last of LG 81, and see if your logic still points to me being elim.

I don't think anyone but you agreed (or agrees now) with TUO's elim profile. This is part of why people were willing to vote him out last cycle (the other part being that he never voted for anyone with that profile). Also, I basically always vote D1. This is NAI for me. I invented the Stab Vote as a villager. So if you think this makes me elim, you should just vote me out every single game. 

If I hadn't said anything last cycle, probably Steel would have died. The previous cycle, Venture would have died quite without my interference. So if you think the point of my talking has been to cause misexes, presumably you think Steel is elim? And Devotary too, since she had the second most votes C2?

 

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's been a while, and this is a separate thought, but I agree with TJ about Mage. This is sort of a retaliatory vote in the sense that I think Mage is using the same elim logic that was used to exe me in the LG.

I took a look back at LG 81, and you make a valid point. However, it was Mat, a village, who first voted you for my same logic. Danex, an elim, then hopped on that train and pushed for your execution. I would be willing to switch my vote if you are. I am going to keep it on you at the moment, just for self preservation, but I will negotiate.

[Quivil]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I guess if you want to look at LG 81, you will see that the village voted village!me out on LyLo for pretty similar reasons; I was active and voted on all of the successful executions, which all happened to be village. Edit: Anyone considering voting for me this cycle, please go read the last day of LG 81, and see if your logic still points to me being elim.

I don't think anyone but you actually agreed (or agrees now) with TUO's elim profile. This is part of why people were willing to vote him out last cycle (the other part being that he never actually voted for anyone with that profile). Also, I basically always vote D1. This is NAI behavior for me. I invented the Stab Vote as a villager. So if you think this makes me elim, you should just vote me out every single game. 

If I hadn't said anything last cycle, probably Steel would have died. The previous cycle, Venture would have died quite easily without my interference. So if you think the point of my talking has been to cause misexes, presumably you think Steel is elim? And Devotary too, since she had the second most votes C2?

Araris Mage

[Mage he/him]

22 minutes ago, Tani said:

Araris Mage

But why?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I am not a fan of the push to kill Mage. It feels like a slow motion hammer of jumping on the first convenient villager to win the game. Looks like Araris is the only alternative, and also a main candidate for jumping on a train to close out the game, so I'll vote for him. @SeaDragonet and @Steeldancer, we'll need your votes if you're villagers.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It feels like a slow motion hammer of jumping on the first convenient villager to win the game.

I have stated my suspicion of Mage prior to this cycle, so my vote is definitely not just based on convenience. Also, there's only one vote on me, and Mage placed that. So I'm pretty sure you could suggest any alternative that Mage would agree with, and that should be fine with you since you apparently read Mage as village.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Alright hi I'm back. This week I'll be a lot more available. I'm going to do a full reread of thread and get a sense of what I missed. I know I don't have a lot of time until turn ends but I'll try and get a vote in. 

Ok time for a thing. Araris, it looks like you saved my inactive butt last turn, which leads me to trust you on the idea that an elim probably would have just let me die before I could reactivate. So I'm going to trust you on this one and vote Mage . I'll finish my reread of thread after church when I have more time, I just wanted to make sure I got a vote in this turn. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Steeldancer
Edited in a vote.

[Mat he/him]

An hour left in the cycle- I might not be able to close it exactly at 1 but the cycle still ends then.

[SeaDragonet he/him]

Sorry I have not posted in a while, I had some tricky school assignments(writing a greek tragedy in like 2 days), but I'm back now.

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I am not a fan of the push to kill Mage. It feels like a slow motion hammer of jumping on the first convenient villager to win the game. Looks like Araris is the only alternative, and also a main candidate for jumping on a train to close out the game, so I'll vote for him. @SeaDragonet and @Steeldancer, we'll need your votes if you're villagers.

Ok, so I have whittled it down to 2 ppl I am sus of. It is either mage or Araris. Devo, you say that Araris often jumps on trains to close out games(edit: that rhymes), can you give an example of this? 

22 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's been a while, and this is a separate thought, but I agree with TJ about Mage. This is sort of a retaliatory vote in the sense that I think Mage is using the same elim logic that was used to exe me in the LG.

What was that logic?

Once I receive replies to these questions I will vote. Confirming the cycle ends tmrw and not today.

oh shoot it ends in an hour please reply quick

 

EDIT: Until further notice, I will vote Araris. This is mainly because of mage's argument. If Araris convinces me in the next 25 mins, I will consider switching. But I trust devo and mage pretty well rn, and so will vote Araris. @Araris Valerian Please defend yourself. I will say that your advice in PMs is somewhat convincing, but that might just be you being a nice person and helping me out.

Edited November 14, 2021 by SeaDragonet
to add in another bit so that i do not double post

[Araris Valerian he/him]

28 minutes ago, SeaDragonet said:

What was that logic?

Once I receive replies to these questions I will vote. Confirming the cycle ends tmrw and not today.

oh shoot it ends in an hour please reply quick

What Mage says when he votes for me:

On 11/12/2021 at 8:51 PM, Mage said:

Araris, sorry gancho. You were the main proponent of both Venture and TUO and they both turned out village. That is starting to get suspicious. I am open to changing my mind, but that is where I currently stand.

Also, in response to your comment last cycle about whether C1 votes matter: your logic convinced me. The C1 votes should matter, because at some point it went from random chance to Danex is gonna die.

The fact that I've voted out 2 villagers in a row just means that I've been stumbling around in the dark as much as anyone else. My playstyle is to be involved, and to try and have my vote matter every day. Since I'm working with limited information and there is only 1 elim for every 4-5 starting players, I don't think it's unreasonable that I miss a couple times in a row.

With regards to what Mage and Tani have said particularly, I've responded to that; in essence I think their statements were exaggerations or just false. Tani retracted on me after I confronted her, and Mage backed off as well.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

So I'm pretty sure you could suggest any alternative that Mage would agree with, and that should be fine with you since you apparently read Mage as village.

I don't know if Mage is village or whether they'd show up before the end of the cycle, but I dislike you and then Tani voting for them. Possibly you and Mage could both be village, but I think it's too late for something else to be viable.

42 minutes ago, SeaDragonet said:

Devo, you say that Araris often jumps on trains to close out games, can you give an example of this? 

Not necessarily that this is a typical strategy for Araris, just that as the second vote for Mage, Araris is voting for the first alternative to himself. That's why I would say it's more likely that if Mage is village, Araris is evil as opposed to TJ.

[SeaDragonet he/him]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The fact that I've voted out 2 villagers in a row just means that I've been stumbling around in the dark as much as anyone else

Fair, excluding all other factors, that has a 64% chance of happening. That is fairly reasonable, but still a higher chance of you being elim than Mage.

 

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My playstyle is to be involved, and to try and have my vote matter every day

Also fair, but again, still more sus than mage. My vote stays.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, SeaDragonet said:

Fair, excluding all other factors, that has a 64% chance of happening. That is fairly reasonable, but still a higher chance of you being elim than Mage.

 

Also fair, but again, still more sus than mage. My vote stays.

What, in your opinion, has Mage done that is villagery?

[SeaDragonet he/him]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

What, in your opinion, has Mage done that is villagery?

I am not saying I trust mage, it is just they have better odds than you.

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Not necessarily that this is a typical strategy for Araris, just that as the second vote for Mage, Araris is voting for the first alternative to himself. That's why I would say it's more likely that if Mage is village, Araris is evil as opposed to TJ.

Hmmmm. Do not know what to make of this.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, SeaDragonet said:

I am not saying I trust mage, it is just they have better odds than you.

While it is true that I have a ~64% chance of having randomly voted village twice, that doesn't say anything about my alignment. You are assuming that the remaining 36% must make me elim, but I don't think that follows. You need to take into account what the odds are that elim!Araris would vote for villagers twice, which I don't think you can quantify (I certainly can't).

[Mat he/him]

Cycle’s over. Rollover will be a bit longer today.

[Mat he/him]

MR54: Aftermath: Changing the Vision

When the Emperor called for an emergency meeting, everyone knew it was serious. Everyone really already knew it was serious, but before the call they had been able to pretend that it wasn't, like turning a blind eye to a tragedy. But when the remaining arbiters and councilmen were staring at each other from across the room, knowing they were almost outnumbered, there was no more pretending.

Two arbiters were mainly under question- an older folk, Araolis, and Gaivan, one of the newer recruits. It was an interesting pair of candidates to have; one of the most experienced and one of the least. The Emperor sat in his chair, scepter in hand, and listened. Neither argument seemed to suffice. Were there even Heritage Faction members among them? Or were they simply being destroyed by their own paranoia?

Finally, he couldn't take it anymore. "Zama?" he whispered, turning to his Head Arbiter, his longest friend. "What do you think?"

Zama said nothing, and only stood and approached the two under question. Gaivan and Araolis stared at them, neither flinching.

In a single motion, Zama pointed at Araolis, making the decision for the entire council.

*   *   *

The execution took place later that day. The Emperor hated the publicity it drew, but he suffered it with the hopes it would be the beginning of the end of this cursed revolution.

Araolis spoke his final words: "Long live Glory."

And the Emperor realized his mistake.

Furious, he rose and strode to Zama. "Do you realize what was just done? Do you know what this means? I can't believe-"

He stopped, growing silent. The others said not a word, but one- Theo- quietly rose.

Zama spoke. "Wei, please, we can talk about this."

The Emperor actually growled, a low sound from within his chest. "No. I'm done listening to you. I don't know how they turned you, but I'm done listening."

"My Emperor, I agree." came Theo's voice. "Let's finish this."

The Emperor hefted his scepter, and cutting off all emotions, swung.

Theo immediately stepped towards the Emperor, waiting till it was done before grabbing his arms. "Alright, Wei, it's time for your rule to end."

The Emperor spun out of Theo's grip, aghast. "What?"

Two more from the small audience rose. Lai, and the Bloodsealer who called himself Steel. Lai spoke. "In the name of the Heritage Faction, I pronounce your rule unfit for the Rose Empire. It's time for a change."

The Emperor only could stare back at Gaivan and Zama. "I'm sorry."

The three of them led him away.

---

Araris Valerian has been excecuted! He was a member of the Glory Faction!

Devotary of Spontaneity has been killed! (Twice!) She was the Head Arbiter of the Glory Faction!

Vote Count:

• Araris Valerian (4): Mage, Devotary of Spontaneity, SeaDragonet
• Mage (3): |TJ|, Araris Valerian, Tani, Steeldancer

The Heritage Faction has won! Congratulations to @|TJ|, @SeaDragonet, and @Steeldancer for their victory and for reclaiming the Rose Empire.

Post-game thoughts to come from me later. Thanks to everyone who played, voted, was active, and generally made the game work! There were lots of close moments and the game could have gone very differently- I don't think the elims know how close it really was  

Doc links:

• Master Spreadsheet
• Dead/Spec Doc
• Elim Doc
• Forger Doc

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Unknown Aon - Shoi - Bloodsealer
2. @Danex - Glory Faction
3. @SeaDragonet - Theo - Heritage Faction
4. @ashwastaken - Ill - Soul Forger
5. @Ashbringer - Faleast - Rememberer
6. @Mage - Gaivan - Glory Faction
7. @Araris Valerian - Araolis - Glory Faction
8. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel - Glory Faction
9. @|TJ| - Lai - Head Arbiter of the Heritage Faction
10. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Zama - Head Arbiter of the Glory Faction
11. @Ed Venture - Sha Lou - Glory Faction
12. @Tani - Wei - Emperor
13. @Steeldancer - Steel - Bloodsealer

 

[Mage he/him]

Storm it, I'm not very good at this. In the two games I have played I have been village, the village has lost, I almost get myself executed through my stupidity, and never even suspect any of the eliminators.

But that's okay. It was fun. Eventually someday in the far future I will get good at this.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

58 minutes ago, Mage said:

Eventually someday in the far future I will get good at this.

Me too man, me too.

[dannnex male]

THE SWORD VOTE WAS RIGHT

[|TJ| he/him]

41 minutes ago, Danex said:

THE SWORD VOTE WAS RIGHT

muahahahaha

Good game village! There were definitely times where y'all had me worried you'd catch up to us. Mat, thanks for running the game!