Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: I don't really want to vote Venture cause they're new. My biggest suspicion is Devo and I think that lynch could easily go through. I will vote for Venture for consolidation if Devo isn't up for the exe, since I still find him sus, just less so. Really? Devotary didn’t vote C1, and you are assuming that all but 1 of the elims voted C1. How then is Devotary more suspicious than all the people that voted?
Mat he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Author Posted November 10, 2021 MR54: Cycle Three: Man On a Mission Sha Lou sighed, hurrying out the door. She hadn’t even gotten her steamed duck, but with the way the conversation had been headed she figured it was best to slip out. She had no intention of dying tonight, not when the Heritage Faction was so close to usurping her Emperor. Since she had figured she wouldn’t be back in her office tonight, Sha Lou had put away the day’s work. But with her early departure leaving important daylight hours open, she thought it best to continue doing her part. The work wouldn’t do itself, after all. Sha Lou worked for another half hour before finally calling it a day. In normal circumstances, she likely would have kept going, but she was distracted by the talk she had heard in the dining room, accusing her of working for the Heritage Faction! She was aghast at the mere thought of it. Sha Lou had hoped that the routine of work would help distract her, but it had instead done the opposite. Perhaps sleep was really what she needed. Sha Lou tiptoed out of her office and began the walk to her quarters. The hallways seemed so dark once the sun dipped lower than the windows. Outside, it would still be light enough to see clearly, but not here. She should have taken her candle. As she approached her room, she noticed the door was cracked open. Odd. She always was sure to close and lock it in the morning. Foolishly, she entered. * * * The Soul Forger had to actively restrain themselves from laughing out loud every second they remained undetected. The ancestors would be proud. Among the arbiters, imitating them while wearing the stamp of something else! The Soul Forger shifted, feeling the stamp settle in. It wasn’t quite ready, but it was close. Soon, their mission would begin. For now, they were Ill. Though, in consideration, it might be better to be elsewhere when the stamp took. It had… visible effects. They didn’t think it was terribly odd to leave suddenly, that girl had done so earlier, as well as whoever had followed her. So, focusing on their next move, the Forger ducked out into the hallway. Luckily, it was empty. Their escape had been just in time- the Soul Forger’s eyes widened as their arm burned with where they had applied the stamp earlier. Their muscles became much more defined, reaction time quickening with the reflexes of a warrior. Those reflexes were swiftly tested as a knife hurtled at them to the right. The Soul Forger’s arm shot up and caught it, without thinking. Their breath caught. The Heritage Faction. The Forger flung the knife back in the direction it had come and followed it with a lunging kick, one not meant to hit a target as much as it was meant to look like it was. To their surprise, the Forger felt a strong hand grasp their outstretched leg and felt a knife- likely the same one that they had thrown- being plunged into their leg. They screamed in shock and pain. They had been too hasty. They should have kept the knife, using it against their attacker deliberately. Instead, they had given their own demise right back. The Soul Forger’s mission had failed. Ed Venture has been executed! They were a member of the Glory Faction! ashwastaken has been killed! They were the Soul Forger! They were stamped with the Warrior Mark. Vote Count: Ed Venture (6): Araris Valerian, Mage, Devotary of Spontaneity, |TJ|, SeaDragonet |TJ| (1): Steeldancer The Unknown Order (0): Ed Venture Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Tani, TUO Cycle Three has begun! It will end in about 48 hours, on Friday, November 12th, at 1pm PST. There will be an execution today, with no vote minimum. Tied votes will result in a decision by RNG. PMs are open, 1-on-1 only. Please include myself and Elandera in any PMs you create. Each player is allotted a single action per cycle. Don’t forget to use it! @Orlok Tsubodai is being warned for inactivity. Failure to post for the duration of two cycles will result in removal or replacement. Player List: Spoiler @The Unknown Order - Shoi Danex - Glory Faction @SeaDragonet - Theo ashwastaken - Ill - Soul Forger Ashbringer - Faleast - Rememberer @Mage - Gaivan @Araris Valerian - Araolis @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel @|TJ| - Lai @Devotary of Spontaneity - Zama Ed Venture - Sha Lou - Glory Faction @Tani - Wei @Steeldancer - Steel 4
Quivil Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) Devo, it'd be nice to hear from you more than twice, especially if you're voting. Edited November 10, 2021 by Tani added words
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 I'm going to vote on TJ for now. It's currently a gut feeling but I think I can back it up with vote counts and stuff from the last two cycles.
Mage he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 Interesting thing I noticed on the vote count. Someone moved Venture’s vote on TUO onto Venture. I’m not sure what the rationale behind that would be since it looked like Ed Venture was a done deal decently early on. So someone with the power to change votes did. Anyone with more experience want to analyze that?
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Mage said: Interesting thing I noticed on the vote count. Someone moved Venture’s vote on TUO onto Venture. I’m not sure what the rationale behind that would be since it looked like Ed Venture was a done deal decently early on. So someone with the power to change votes did. Anyone with more experience want to analyze that? Isn't the only vote mover guaranteed vil? Let me check. Edit: It is. So that doesn't mean anything except that player had a good opinion of me and a bad one of Venture. Or even just Venture. Edited November 10, 2021 by The Unknown Order
Mage he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 Alright. If it is, what would be the motivation for a seemingly pointless move like that? Perhaps some villager wanted to ensure Venture was exed because they deeply believed they were Elim/Forger
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 Just now, Mage said: Alright. If it is, what would be the motivation for a seemingly pointless move like that? Perhaps some villager wanted to ensure Venture was exed because they deeply believed they were Elim/Forger That. A last minute switch and some vote manipulation could have exed Devo, and if the action was submitted earlier in the cycle they could have believed I was going to be exed and Venture wasn't, so they tried to reverse that.
Mage he/him Posted November 10, 2021 Posted November 10, 2021 Well maybe we shouldn’t look into it too much so we can keep the switcher’s identity secret to the Elims
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 Hmm, I suppose the recent tendency of elim teams to go for low-info kills gives a slightly more selfish reason for discussion/voting; you are more likely to not get NKed . 1
Quivil Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) Last cycle someone (i forget who) said something about we should look for elims in low-activity voters. Last cycle, Devo made two posts and voted on Ed in the second one. I was going to confront him about it and vote him last cycle but there was about an hour left when I thought of it and it wouldn't've had much effect. @Devotary of Spontaneity, anything to say for yourself? Edited November 11, 2021 by Tani
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Tani said: Last cycle someone (i forget who) said something about we should look for elims in low-activity voters. Last cycle, Devo made two posts and voted on Ed in the second one. I did. The typical low activity elim profile (and most effective one) is to be low activity but still vote to retain thread control.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 6 hours ago, Mage said: Alright. If it is, what would be the motivation for a seemingly pointless move like that? If the GA wanted to claim to someone or otherwise leave a record of their activity, moving a vote even if it didn't change the outcome would help with that. 2 hours ago, Tani said: Last cycle someone (i forget who) said something about we should look for elims in low-activity voters. Last cycle, Devo made two posts and voted on Ed in the second one. I usually only make a few posts in a cycle in any game. In cycle two, I said the things I wanted to say in 3 posts. I'd possibly still vote for Steel today, but I'm less willing to do so with Venture being village.
|TJ| he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 17 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I'm going to vote on TJ for now. It's currently a gut feeling but I think I can back it up with vote counts and stuff from the last two cycles. Hmm? I really did not want to vote for Venture but I didn't really have a choice. My choice would have been TUO or Steel. Not feeling as good as I did about Araris last cycle, especially considering if he's village, the entire Danex train is village as well. I'll start with Steel for reasonings given in last cycle.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, |TJ| said: Hmm? I really did not want to vote for Venture but I didn't really have a choice. My choice would have been TUO or Steel. Not feeling as good as I did about Araris last cycle, especially considering if he's village, the entire Danex train is village as well. I'll start with Steel for reasonings given in last cycle. Yeah, going back I think I misremembered something. The only things that stick out about you are that Danex (a villager) voted for you D1, and that you were right about Venture's alignment. Although, I'm not sure "I didn't really have a choice" is accurate. You were never in any real threat of dying last cycle. You also didn't push very hard for other people to join you on Steel, and haven't done so this cycle. Given the current activity levels, I think we need to do more than just vote to prompt some discussion. We need to be actively trying to convince other people to vote alongside us (something I'm guilty of failing at as well, despite the outcomes we've had so far). TUO has been at the back of my mind for a while, so I figure I'll see if it makes sense for him to be an elim. His main contribution has been the suggestion that 2-3 of the votes in C1 were placed by elims, and also that Devotary is suspicious. Now, I think the two statements are something of a contradiction, so in what world does it make sense for elim!TUO to make both of these claims. Well, for starters, I suggested that players with NKs go after low active players, and TUO's comment about the D1 voters was made in response. So, if TUO is elim, it would make sense that other elims have the activity profile I was suggesting we target. However, the comment could have been made in self-defense, since TUO himself fits that profile. The list of living players that didn't vote C1 is: TUO Sea Devotary Tani Steel Interestingly, all of these players voted last cycle. @Devotary of Spontaneity and @SeaDragonet were on Venture, @Tani and @The Unknown Order were on Devotary, and @Steeldancer voted TJ. Based on this, if TUO is elim, I'd expect a team like TUO, Steel, and either Devotary/Sea. And I'd like to note that contrary to what TUO said, I think it would pretty clearly be in the comfort zones for all of these players to not place a vote D1, even if they were elims. I think Tani has been sheeping TUO a bit much for them to be on a team together, and TUO kind explicitly defended Tani when I posted about the NK thing. I also don't think Tani/Devotary would be e/e based on last cycle. Now, what if TUO is village? His statement does mesh with the fact that GMs in the past have preferentially chosen more active players to be elims (or perhaps there is another reason I was evil 6 games in a row). His vote on Devotary could be based on a roleblock or something from a PM. In this instance, he could just honestly have been wrong, and Tani could be sheeping him as an elim. Since this outcome doesn't seem to give a lot of information, I'd like to hear more from TUO, in particular regarding the vote on Devotary. In all of this I've kind of ignored Mage and Orlok. One of those could be elim regardless of TUO's alignment, but I doubt both of them would be. Mage probably makes more sense if TUO is elim, given his vote on Venture shortly after pressure was put on TUO. So I'll switch my vote from TJ to TUO for now. I'd probably be willing to join TJ on Steel, depending on how things play out. Everyone I pinged here is someone I'd like to hear from. In particular, do you think TUO was right/honest about people's participation in the C1 vote, and if so, who among those people is most suspicious. If not, why should I not vote you out?
Mage he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 Considering the current evidence I will vote Steel. Someone please change my mind. This is based on their early activity, then current inactivity. Their vote on TJ was interesting. My gut feeling wants to suspect those who voted Venture, because he turned out Village, but considering that I voted Venture that doesn't make much sense. Most of this vote is gut feeling, so if you believe I am wrong present me some logic and I will most likely change my mind.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mage said: Considering the current evidence I will vote Steel. Someone please change my mind. This is based on their early activity, then current inactivity. Their vote on TJ was interesting. My gut feeling wants to suspect those who voted Venture, because he turned out Village, but considering that I voted Venture that doesn't make much sense. Most of this vote is gut feeling, so if you believe I am wrong present me some logic and I will most likely change my mind. I didn’t ping you in my previous post, but what are your thoughts on TUO’s statement about elims voting D1? And I guess on TUO in general.
Quivil Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) I'm pretty sure I didn't vote Devo last cycle. Edit: Nevermind, that's what the VC at the top says. I'm going to check last cycle for why. Edit2: I checked. It was a poke (and an undercover same reason as today and I was sus of him) and I didn't remove it because I was sus of him for the reasons I said today. And because I cannot (literally impossible) be on in the entire hour before rollover. Edited November 11, 2021 by Tani
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 Why do you expect me to be on a team with my biggest sus? Do you think I'm trying to bus? Also, you state that me being village doesn't give much info, but you also already want to exe one of my teammates and I want to exe one of two potential teammates, so you have an extra vote either way. And... I'm pretty sure TJ is the only one who wants me dead other than you. Why not take the three votes on Devo? Do you really trust them a lot or something? Why not take the 2+ votes on Steel? Why fixate on me? You also state that not much sticks out about TJ, and they aren't pushing their votes enough in your opinion. You point out they their reasoning is flawed, but don't seem to distrust them. What would you say your read on them is? Why do you insist that my read on Devo comes from outside the thread or just straight up being wrong? It's a read. They match my profile for the third elim, not voting for one reason or another than starting to vote next cycle to retain thread control. Why do you exclude Tani from being elim? I don't think they are, but it never really seems like an option in your posts. I'll get back to you on who I suspect as elims from d1 voting. I've tried to put it together several times now but haven't gotten it in writing yet.
|TJ| he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: Although, I'm not sure "I didn't really have a choice" is accurate. You were never in any real threat of dying last cycle. It was 2-2 when I went to sleep but that was from the post count in Venture's post which I just realised, is missing your vote. But basically yeah, I thought it was 2-2 and felt the need to preserve myself. With regards to TUO, yeah I still suspect them, preferred their vote to Venture's last cycle. I think for TUO to propose 2-3 players within the 6 players who voted D1, it doesn't make much sense, especially since it was V-V so the elims don't feel the need to involve themselves as well as don't feel the need to go outside their usual voting patterns for D1. And TUO himself did admit that not voting D1 is their usual play so it fits their pattern :P. Thinking about it, I feel I suspect TUO more than Steel, all I have is gut feeling about similarity to another elim game play by Steel. I'll keep my vote for now so it remains diverse. Also, starting to feel a tiny bit sus about Mage only because they voted for Venture in consecutive cycles. So makes me slightly uneasy voting for Steel with them. Edited November 11, 2021 by |TJ|
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, |TJ| said: TUO himself did admit that not voting D1 is their usual play so it fits their pattern What pattern? Also, if you've played almost any game with me, you'd know that I almost never vote d1, or even d2.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said: What pattern? Also, if you've played almost any game with me, you'd know that I almost never vote d1, or even d2. That's what TJ is saying. Your usual pattern is to not vote D1. Our current information makes it look like no elims were in danger D1. Hence elim!you has no reason to diverge from your normal gameplay. 19 minutes ago, |TJ| said: Also, starting to feel a tiny bit sus about Mage only because they voted for Venture in consecutive cycles. I'm feeling bad about Mage as well, but some of that is colored by my suspicion of TUO, and the timing of votes last cycle.
Quivil Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) Wait. I was sheeping TUO? I had no clue I was doing that, actually. *exudes innocence* Edited November 11, 2021 by Tani
Araris Valerian he/him Posted November 11, 2021 Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Tani said: Wait. I was sheeping TUO? I had no clue I was doing that, actually. *exudes innocence* Do you have any response to what I said about TUO (in the large post about 5 up)?
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