Mid-Range Game 53: Unmade, Remade

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Well! It's been a while since I started a game as a player.

It's comforting to know that almost everyone is a villager right now. Less comforting to know that, as the game goes forwards, we can't trust anyone... 

To start off with, I'm curious to see how the bet against Tani about Araris fell. I definitely don't need to get this Mystery Liquid off my property before the end of the week or anything.

The best way I can see to identify who the villains are is to see how player's opinions and actions change over time. Spotting the inconsistencies will likely be critical to identifying who has been taken by the Taker of Secrets. To that end, I suggest that we state our opinions as we normally would, and try as best we can not to let paranoia consume us.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

and try as best we can not to let paranoia consume us.

But paranoia is my favorite snack...

24 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, guess this makes 7 in a row .

Araris would 100% say this regardless

Random number generator says to vote slot one, and who am I to argue with that?

Matrim

[Azmine_king]

It's Illwei

[Mint11 she/her]

FYI I was very busy today and may have forgotten about this game lol. I have like no energy for posting. Fingers crossed, I'll try to post something before the cycle ends but I may not get around to it. Latest you should hear from me is cycle two.

Edited September 20, 2021 by Frozen Mint
realized the blue font probably wasn't necessary since this isn't much of a life update

[Quivil]

I do too, Xino. Araris.

Also he might come for my land next.

And can I RP as Eso?

[Mat he/him]

I’d love to talk but I can’t bounce ideas off nobody

Don’t think Araris is a good vote since it’s motivated by bets that can be collected regardless of when that happens

I also get the feeling a Matrim vote won’t be very productive, despite RNG’s insistence. 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quivil]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Don’t think Araris is a good vote since it’s motivated by bets that can be collected regardless of when that happens

Nonsense!

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, Tani said:

Nonsense!

I mean, the end result of the bet can’t be changed at this point, and even though there’s a 13/14 chance you win (iirc) it doesn’t seem like it’s grounds for an exe by itself.

With only one elim it’ll be hard to pick out an exe that has a chance of success cause a single Sja won’t play the same as a team of evil voidspren would. Today’s exe is probably about as good as leaving it to chance (even though RNG hit the only failure I can confirm so far, me) but that sure as Braize doesn’t mean I won’t try!

Elandera

Edited September 21, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Azmine_king]

Nevermind I thought it over and Illwei is town, so I will be sheeping her reads today, but she definitely scum by D3

 

@Illwei Who is scum?

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

With only one elim it’ll be hard to pick out an exe that has a chance of success cause a single Sja won’t play the same as a team of evil voidspren would. Today’s exe is probably about as good as leaving it to chance (even though RNG hit the only failure I can confirm so far, me) but that sure as Braize doesn’t mean I won’t try!

Elandera

I knew RNG had a grudge...

Let's see. Your reasoning is as sound as any others I've seen. Let the fates decide. Frozen Mint!

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, the end result of the bet can’t be changed at this point, and even though there’s a 13/14 chance you win (iirc) it doesn’t seem like it’s grounds for an exe by itself.

With only one elim it’ll be hard to pick out an exe that has a chance of success cause a single Sja won’t play the same as a team of evil voidspren would. Today’s exe is probably about as good as leaving it to chance (even though RNG hit the only failure I can confirm so far, me) but that sure as Braize doesn’t mean I won’t try!

Elandera

Thing was, Aizu might've liked Matrim's reasoning, if not for the fact that someone was dying no matter what.

[OOC: I think the only exception to a no lynch D1 is potentially a conversion game, or a game with guaranteed no N1 kill. I highlighted that chunk from Ash earlier because it points out that any refusal to lynch today will commit us to a roll of the dice, so the point is moot. 

Ahhh damnit I'm too tired to properly RP on mobile and I'll have to edit justification later. So TJ is off to me at the moment. I feel as though not prioritising suspicions simply enables Sja-anat and her eventual evil football team to get by with loose voting patterns. I really think that voting behaviour is the best way to make sense of allegiances and to do that we have to keep re-evaluating against a player's track record and who they are suddenly giving a pass to. 

Mat is also off — I feel as though Araris claiming Sja-anat off the bat is pretty decent reason for a vote and early pressure. Araris doesn't respond to pressure but all things being equal, I have no issue voting someone who flat out claims Elim. I don't think this is really comparable to Gears gaming the system.

Same thing though. It's not even mid-cycle yet so why the immediate pushback?] 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir
JUSTIFICATION PLS D':

[Illwei]

hello i have not read up but lucky u guys getta know my alignment i am town tbh and this is a fact now everyone should file me away and start lookeing at everone else i think now back to playing codenyames with Esooa an dfriends

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, Elandera said:

I knew RNG had a grudge...

[OOC: Should I bring out the sacred coin?  

The real question is how many of us looked at stuff people said, went "Seems sus, let's- oh wait" and remembered there is currently no Elim team and only one Elim today?

'Cause legit I went "Az and Illwei seem connected I don't like thi - oh gdi." 

Hey Malibu Sja-anat, I know you're out there looking for convertees but I feel obligated to tell you most of my bandwidth is currently dedicated to pursuing crimes against the laws of Golarion with my Inquisitor of Sarenrae >> It works somehow. Also I don't play football good.

Tldr; dead doc >>> Evil doc kthxbai

We blame TJ, he has made me paranoid.]

[Illwei]

the fact that the response was not to me is saddening

[Elandera she/her]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Should I bring out the sacred coin?

Probably not, though. Best not overuse its power.

[Kasimir he/him]

52 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Probably not, though. Best not overuse its power.

Maybe it only works on Araris and Archer. Oh wait 

59 minutes ago, Illwei said:

the fact that the response was not to me is saddening

New player, who dis?

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

. So TJ is off to me at the moment. I feel as though not prioritising suspicions simply enables Sja-anat and her eventual evil football team to get by with loose voting patterns.

Oi Kas, I never said not to prioritize suspicions smh, I said I feel it's better not to prioritize village reads, particularly mass village-reading a player/too top-trust reads could cause paranoias. 

So, prioritize evil/null reads, perfectly fine. Reads someone as majorly/pure village. Paranoia :P.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Tldr; dead doc >>> Evil doc kthxbai

If I'm Sja and you vote me out, you might be my first convert  (wish this tactic would work on the other folks voting for me ). Let me go and I can help you to the dead doc much faster. 

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat is also off — I feel as though Araris claiming Sja-anat off the bat is pretty decent reason for a vote and early pressure.

I mean sure but also considering the signup thread from pre game it’s a safe guess to say it’s NAI

I’m not opposed to early pressure though 

[Kasimir he/him]

25 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Oi Kas, I never said not to prioritize suspicions smh, I said I feel it's better not to prioritize village reads, particularly mass village-reading a player/too top-trust reads could cause paranoias. 

It's a potahto/potayto difference to me, since trusts are "I suspect them least" in a game without a proper Seeker, so sort of "lynch them last" rather than "This person will no longer be suspected." You should know this by now  Reads should be kept fluid especially in a conversion game, simpliciter, and I think having an idea of where people stand and forcing them to justify shifts in their reads is the way to do it. Elims like not having to commit too hard to where they feel about players because of the potential to be held to their analysis. Why make things easier for them?

After all, the whole point is that if someone suddenly does a 180 with little evidential basis, they're sus. Attitude changes can be reflective of a Villager updating beliefs in accordance with evidence, or team-motivated reasoning. This should be an alarm bell and then we need to distinguish between the two.

18 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Or at least we just say who we think is village without assigning any importance to how trusted they are. This is to avoid the case where we might end up trusting a player and then have to worry about Sja Anat converting that player and then us being paranoid of a trusted player in case they aren't actually converted.

How isn't this going to be an issue anyway? Suppose a player is instrumental in getting an Evil player lynched. Do you geniunely think that Sja is so daft that no one pointing this out or people mass-saying X isn't likely to be Evil will mean she won't ignore it? Shifting reads is the name of the game. It's why I hate conversion games -.- They're a pain and an awful nuisance as Village and worse still if some awful uppity spren lady converts you and doesn't get the frith off your damn porch.

25 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If I'm Sja and you vote me out, you might be my first convert  (wish this tactic would work on the other folks voting for me ). Let me go and I can help you to the dead doc much faster. 

..........

.....................................

Araris Kasimir I can't live like this.

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean sure but also considering the signup thread from pre game it’s a safe guess to say it’s NAI

He didn't say he'd claim, just took bets.

Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice is not currently a trust, but is not my immediate Malibu candidate.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How isn't this going to be an issue anyway? Suppose a player is instrumental in getting an Evil player lynched. Do you geniunely think that Sja is so daft that no one pointing this out or people mass-saying X isn't likely to be Evil will mean she won't ignore it? Shifting reads is the name of the game. It's why I hate conversion games -.- They're a pain and an awful nuisance as Village and worse still if some awful uppity spren lady converts you and doesn't get the frith off your damn porch.

smh when I typed up the post I was thinking particularly in terms of how I trusted Mat and Archer in the last game, i.e. based on post reads, obviously not in particular cases as someone instrumentally killing an elim. 

And yes, shifting reads is the name of the game, but... okay well I see your point. You're saying give top trusts reads and then notice changes if any to find suspicion. But normally, people (I don't include you smh, you paranoid read everyone till the end of the game :P) don't do that, they give top trust reads and barely change it during the game (at least after a trust tier is set). 

also smh don't call sja-anat some awful uppity spren lady shes nice smh

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

also smh don't call sja-anat some awful uppity spren lady shes nice smh

TJ

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ

Canonically canonicallyyyy xD 

[Kasimir he/him]

34 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

And yes, shifting reads is the name of the game, but... okay well I see your point. You're saying give top trusts reads and then notice changes if any to find suspicion. But normally, people (I don't include you smh, you paranoid read everyone till the end of the game :P) don't do that, they give top trust reads and barely change it during the game (at least after a trust tier is set). 

No, I'm saying rate everyone according to suspicion and then change it each cycle with the evidence >>  

And yeah, but whether or not people say what their top trust reads are, people not changing top trust reads is gonna kill us more than them actually telling the class who their top trust reads are. Conversion games man. What was I drinking last night...

I also think it is a moot point as: Sja has alternative ways of playing this. There's no need to say too much about how this would work and I leave it as an exercise to the reader. Suffice to say that with PMs Messenger-limited and one-on-one, trusts may not be a big issue barring information about information flows and who is particularly Connected, particularly because everyone will paranoid the moment a conversion goes off.

Recall: Sja can only either kill or convert in a cycle, and if Cher exists, she can only kill every Even cycle. Sja also cannot be roleblocked. We'll have some idea of when a conversion happens, with some rule clarifications from Ash pending. Once that happens, trust reads or not, everyone will be suspect and will rightfully be suspect. (It'd be loltastic if Sja chooses to do nothing for a cycle just to make us paranoid for no reason but there are only so many players I expect to be that kayana as an Elim profile.)

Doesn't look like BAM can scan alignment, so BAM is going to be the biggest danger to Sja (not her Defectors though) and I expect Sja to be attempting to get rid of BAM or convert BAM ASAP. Probably kill unless Sja has this particular profile since it takes two charges to convert BAM. Psst. BAM. Keep your head down and find Sja for us, okay?  

36 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

also smh don't call sja-anat some awful uppity spren lady shes nice smh

...You're Sja aren't you.

[Illwei]

i have come to the conclusion that I didn't read my GMPM til now

Also that Kas is sja anat but like kinda rude to kill him d1