Mid-Range Game 53: Unmade, Remade

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

...You're Sja aren't you.

smh no she was just nice in RoW -.-

[Kasimir he/him]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

i have come to the conclusion that I didn't read my GMPM til now

Also that Kas is sja anat but like kinda rude to kill him d1

Sja confirmed.

Edit: Says the person who N2ed me last game only because N1 was unavailable.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

12 hours ago, Azmine_king said:

Nevermind I thought it over and Illwei is town, so I will be sheeping her reads today, but she definitely scum by D3

 

@Illwei Who is scum?

it's kas

[|TJ| he/him]

now all that's left is for her to sing cheap trills :P.

[Kasimir he/him]

Kasimir Illwei

[Illwei]

Hi

Open the Spoiler

Spoiler

just little bit by bit, not much to read 

--

Kas starts off with RP but then immediately not only posts alsmot right after, but not in RP and Immediately sussing TJ. TJ, who "feels off" and TJ who usually talks to kas a lot and might be more attentive to what kas is doing. 

11 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Thing was, Aizu might've liked Matrim's reasoning, if not for the fact that someone was dying no matter what.

[OOC: I think the only exception to a no lynch D1 is potentially a conversion game, or a game with guaranteed no N1 kill. I highlighted that chunk from Ash earlier because it points out that any refusal to lynch today will commit us to a roll of the dice, so the point is moot. 

Ahhh damnit I'm too tired to properly RP on mobile and I'll have to edit justification later. So TJ is off to me at the moment. I feel as though not prioritising suspicions simply enables Sja-anat and her eventual evil football team to get by with loose voting patterns. I really think that voting behaviour is the best way to make sense of allegiances and to do that we have to keep re-evaluating against a player's track record and who they are suddenly giving a pass to. 

Mat is also off — I feel as though Araris claiming Sja-anat off the bat is pretty decent reason for a vote and early pressure. Araris doesn't respond to pressure but all things being equal, I have no issue voting someone who flat out claims Elim. I don't think this is really comparable to Gears gaming the system.

Same thing though. It's not even mid-cycle yet so why the immediate pushback?] 

Then almost immediately another post with talking in which you call out Sja Anat and tell her to stay away. 

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: Should I bring out the sacred coin?  

The real question is how many of us looked at stuff people said, went "Seems sus, let's- oh wait" and remembered there is currently no Elim team and only one Elim today?

'Cause legit I went "Az and Illwei seem connected I don't like thi - oh gdi." 

Hey Malibu Sja-anat, I know you're out there looking for convertees but I feel obligated to tell you most of my bandwidth is currently dedicated to pursuing crimes against the laws of Golarion with my Inquisitor of Sarenrae >> It works somehow. Also I don't play football good.

Tldr; dead doc >>> Evil doc kthxbai

We blame TJ, he has made me paranoid.]

Still further on we dive deeper into more game talk and now to play theory. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

It's a potahto/potayto difference to me, since trusts are "I suspect them least" in a game without a proper Seeker, so sort of "lynch them last" rather than "This person will no longer be suspected." You should know this by now  Reads should be kept fluid especially in a conversion game, simpliciter, and I think having an idea of where people stand and forcing them to justify shifts in their reads is the way to do it. Elims like not having to commit too hard to where they feel about players because of the potential to be held to their analysis. Why make things easier for them?

After all, the whole point is that if someone suddenly does a 180 with little evidential basis, they're sus. Attitude changes can be reflective of a Villager updating beliefs in accordance with evidence, or team-motivated reasoning. This should be an alarm bell and then we need to distinguish between the two.

How isn't this going to be an issue anyway? Suppose a player is instrumental in getting an Evil player lynched. Do you geniunely think that Sja is so daft that no one pointing this out or people mass-saying X isn't likely to be Evil will mean she won't ignore it? Shifting reads is the name of the game. It's why I hate conversion games -.- They're a pain and an awful nuisance as Village and worse still if some awful uppity spren lady converts you and doesn't get the frith off your damn porch.

..........

.....................................

Araris Kasimir I can't live like this.

He didn't say he'd claim, just took bets.

Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice is not currently a trust, but is not my immediate Malibu candidate.

and then we have another last post which is Kas diving more into actually talking abt things

in a game he didn't originally wanna join and a format he hates

19 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

No, I'm saying rate everyone according to suspicion and then change it each cycle with the evidence >>  

And yeah, but whether or not people say what their top trust reads are, people not changing top trust reads is gonna kill us more than them actually telling the class who their top trust reads are. Conversion games man. What was I drinking last night...

I also think it is a moot point as: Sja has alternative ways of playing this. There's no need to say too much about how this would work and I leave it as an exercise to the reader. Suffice to say that with PMs Messenger-limited and one-on-one, trusts may not be a big issue barring information about information flows and who is particularly Connected, particularly because everyone will paranoid the moment a conversion goes off.

Recall: Sja can only either kill or convert in a cycle, and if Cher exists, she can only kill every Even cycle. Sja also cannot be roleblocked. We'll have some idea of when a conversion happens, with some rule clarifications from Ash pending. Once that happens, trust reads or not, everyone will be suspect and will rightfully be suspect. (It'd be loltastic if Sja chooses to do nothing for a cycle just to make us paranoid for no reason but there are only so many players I expect to be that kayana as an Elim profile.)

Doesn't look like BAM can scan alignment, so BAM is going to be the biggest danger to Sja (not her Defectors though) and I expect Sja to be attempting to get rid of BAM or convert BAM ASAP. Probably kill unless Sja has this particular profile since it takes two charges to convert BAM. Psst. BAM. Keep your head down and find Sja for us, okay?  

...You're Sja aren't you.

deflection

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sja confirmed.

Edit: Says the person who N2ed me last game only because N1 was unavailable.

deflection x2

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Kasimir Illwei

 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Hi

Open the Spoiler

  Hide contents

just little bit by bit, not much to read 

--

Kas starts off with RP but then immediately not only posts alsmot right after, but not in RP and Immediately sussing TJ. TJ, who "feels off" and TJ who usually talks to kas a lot and might be more attentive to what kas is doing. 

Then almost immediately another post with talking in which you call out Sja Anat and tell her to stay away. 

Still further on we dive deeper into more game talk and now to play theory. 

and then we have another last post which is Kas diving more into actually talking abt things

in a game he didn't originally wanna join and a format he hates

deflection

deflection x2

 

Strong Kohga vibes. I'm happy to be lynched because it'll show how wrong you are  But I actually think you're my best Evil candidate now so I'm going to vote for you and encourage people to join you on me if they want.

[Illwei]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Strong Kohga vibes. I'm happy to be lynched because it'll show how wrong you are  But I actually think you're my best Evil candidate now so I'm going to vote for you and encourage people to join you on me if they want.

Maybe half of this is more likely to come from a villager in terms of the situation but tone and wording is ech

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

Maybe half of this is more likely to come from a villager in terms of the situation but tone and wording is ech

Heads-up boys and girls I'm a stormspren so I won't die the first time, but I encourage you to vote on me anyway. Even if Sja eventually goes for me, it denies her a full-strength Thug, it brings me one step closer to death and blessed release, and if you actually think Illwei is right and I'm Sja-anat, I'll lose two charges that way. I'd also rather we burn a compulsory lynch on a Village Thug than on an actual Villager mislynch unless you're dead certain you can do better than random and net us Sja today.

But I'm getting a very strong Kohga vibe from Illwei and I'm happy to gun for her death this cycle. 

[|TJ| he/him]

If this is Kas' elim play..... interesting..... xD

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But I'm getting a very strong Kohga vibe from Illwei and I'm happy to gun for her death this cycle. 

you know recently in a game people asked me why i get misexed so much recently after a streak of getting nkd

like

I didn't have an answer

because yall always do and still haven't learned that the things you try to find for me are just NAI

but half the people don't want to put in the work

EDIT: 

Also that is the most Sja claim from Kas

Edited September 21, 2021 by Illwei

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

because yall always do and still haven't learned that the things you try to find for me are just NAI

Yes, and you tend to pick those fights about your meta and those being NAI most when you're Evil, sorry. Not buying it. I've read enough of your Evil docs to see this.

And if you feel frustrated, just take a second to stop and wonder if maybe that's exactly why I said I'd love to see what happens when I finally die and you're absolutely and devastatingly wrong after how unhesitatingly and confidently you stated it  

Anyway, my point stands. Unless everyone else other than Illwei has a stronger candidate (and I do - lynch Illwei), I propose myself as the lynch candidate. It's a win/win for everyone - we don't mislynch a Villager (unless we're fairly certain we have Sja), if you think I'm Sja, I'll have lost two charges, which is still a good thing for the Village, since that's less conversion charges. If you think I'm not Sja, my point and Mat's about the odds still stands considering everyone except Sja starts Village.

What do you have to lose?

[Illwei]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yes, and you tend to pick those fights about your meta and those being NAI most when you're Evil, sorry. Not buying it. I've read enough of your Evil docs to see this.

And if you feel frustrated, just take a second to stop and wonder if maybe that's exactly why I said I'd love to see what happens when I finally die and you're absolutely and devastatingly wrong after how unhesitatingly and confidently you stated it  

Anyway, my point stands. Unless everyone else other than Illwei has a stronger candidate (and I do - lynch Illwei), I propose myself as the lynch candidate. It's a win/win for everyone - we don't mislynch a Villager (unless we're fairly certain we have Sja), if you think I'm Sja, I'll have lost two charges, which is still a good thing for the Village, since that's less conversion charges. If you think I'm not Sja, my point and Mat's about the odds still stands considering everyone except Sja starts Village.

What do you have to lose?

I'm not frustrated tbh, maybe I should throw in a few "lol"s or "lmao"s to show that. maybe a couple of " :P. "s, I haven't done those in a while

Proposing yourself as a cw to me is either bad form or AtE, and right now I'm pretty sure it's just #2

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm not frustrated tbh, maybe I should throw in a few "lol"s or "lmao"s to show that. maybe a couple of " :P. "s, I haven't done those in a while

Proposing yourself as a cw to me is either bad form or AtE, and right now I'm pretty sure it's just #2

K. Keep being wrong then  

16 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

If this is Kas' elim play..... interesting..... xD

/shrug

Like I said, vote for me then. Archer has always pointed out I don't play daring and the worst people can say about my proposition is that it sort of puts the Village in a no-lose D1, whereas we might want a stronger position. But how people react is informative, Illwei's doubling down is brave, stupid, or both, and possibly more commitment than I'd expect from any normal Sja but this is Illwei.

I'm happy to be the "lmao we got no better train" candidate to dump votes on if discussion doesn't find anyone people feel strongly about and if people are worried I am Sja or potentially a Sja convertee, (well, I'm worried about the latter, I must admit), then burning that extra life down or extra charges down (depending on your point of view) is all the better.

It's only logical there would be stormspren, frankly, due to Sja's lynch resistance.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm not frustrated tbh, maybe I should throw in a few "lol"s or "lmao"s to show that. maybe a couple of " :P. "s, I haven't done those in a while

Proposing yourself as a cw to me is either bad form or AtE, and right now I'm pretty sure it's just #2

Bad form huh. Nice to see you can't find an issue with my logic apart so you have to dismiss it as either bad form or an appeal to emotion. You're not engaging, Sja.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Bad form huh. Nice to see you can't find an issue with my logic apart so you have to dismiss it as either bad form or an appeal to emotion. You're not engaging, Sja.

i am operation on two hours of sleep any arguments against me are automatically invalid

[Kasimir he/him]

@|TJ| Here's the thing. If I'm offering, knowing my standard risk tolerance as a player, I'm probably Sja or actually a stormspren. If I survive the lynch, we know I'm probably definitely going to be scanned because there is no alignment scan anyway, just a role scan, so BAM has no better person to hit, frankly, and I don't think there are Smokers in this game. Even if I don't get lynched for whatever reason, BAM should just scan me anyway.

Even if I'm Sja, don't forget - PMs are not open yet, until the end of the cycle. I have no way to scan or detect anyone targeting me, or to know who those players might be. 

It's a pretty stupid play for Sja and arguably not the best Village play but it has certain advantages to it that I like, as I've already made clear.

Really, the only reason I'm more familiar with how Sja might play is I was Sja in LG6  And I'm definitely not running anywhere near that play now, whatever you think my game is. You're free to check, too 

[|TJ| he/him]

Okay let's think about this - 

Kas elimination pros - 

• Eats 2 charges if sja!Kas
• No villager dies if non-sja!Kas
• Future convertee doesn't get extra life of non-Sja!Kas
• No one can fake claim stormspren in the future because there's not likely to be more than one if non-Sja!Kas

Cons - 

• Lose the village double life if non-Sja!Kas

Can't go wrong with that logic huh. I need more time to think, even though the con list just one thing, don't feel like deliberately voting for a villager smh

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Like I said, vote for me then. Archer has always pointed out I don't play daring and the worst people can say about my proposition is that it sort of puts the Village in a no-lose D1, whereas we might want a stronger position. But how people react is informative, Illwei's doubling down is brave, stupid, or both, and possibly more commitment than I'd expect from any normal Sja but this is Illwei.

I wasn't calling your play as elim, I meant more like if this how elim!you plays... it's interesting to watch things unfold :P.

[Mat he/him]

Illwei makes a valid case tbh

42 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also that is the most Sja claim from Kas

And this

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's only logical there would be stormspren, frankly, due to Sja's lynch resistance.

But also this

10 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Can't go wrong with that logic huh. I need more time to think, even though the con list just one thing, don't feel like deliberately voting for a villager smh

Also this

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

It's a pretty stupid play for Sja and arguably not the best Village play but it has certain advantages to it that I like, as I've already made clear.

Mostly this imo though

So I'm fine leaving my vote where it is

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Illwei makes a valid case tbh

Why sus TJ when TJ has stated he needs PMs to read me and this is a PM-limited game? Why not just kill TJ in a game full of players who don't generally do connection kill analysis? Why engage overly with TJ when TJ could also be easily converted if we're still presuming I consider TJ a threat? (Hint: I would not kill Wyrm if playing with him.) 

It's just a bunch of speculations thrown together and there's nothing I can say to that when Illwei asserts it's deflection. 

It's a format I've played before (LG6), I like puzzling out rules (LG79), I like mechanical reasoning (LG79), and I'm bored and we all know I overcommit to games when I'm bored and can't game but don't want to keep staring at databases. What's so mysterious about it?

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So I'm fine leaving my vote where it is

So...you suspect TJ then? 

Edited to add: It's not exactly a mystery begging for creative explanation when I'm a player with a history of being dragged deeper into games than I'd intended to commit, you know. There's a reason my quiet RPful game thing has become ironic where I'm involved  

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why sus TJ when TJ has stated he needs PMs to read me and this is a PM-limited game? Why not just kill TJ in a game full of players who don't generally do connection kill analysis? Why engage overly with TJ when TJ could also be easily converted if we're still presuming I consider TJ a threat? (Hint: I would not kill Wyrm if playing with him.) 

It's just a bunch of speculations thrown together and there's nothing I can say to that when Illwei asserts it's deflection. 

It's a format I've played before (LG6), I like puzzling out rules (LG79), I like mechanical reasoning (LG79), and I'm bored and we all know I overcommit to games when I'm bored and can't game but don't want to keep staring at databases. What's so mysterious about it?

I mean, I don't necessarily agree with it  Just that I don't think any of the points are invalid/inaccurate.

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

So...you suspect TJ then? 

Despite the obvious kindness to the evil converting enemy friend, if I assume v!stormspren!you then e!TJ makes sense. Being okay with killing you cause it'd be a misexe, using an extra life would box him in but he'd be pretty free to convert you since no one would expect him to do that :P. On the other hand, he left enough doubt in the line from him I quoted so that if your exe doesn't get through (which I don't find likely) he can convert you anyway. Which I think it's almost guaranteed that you will end up evil at some point since I think you have an extra life whether that's Sja's or a stormspren, and Sja wants an extra life for the price of a single charge even if we know you got converted. Like, it's a free two cycles for her :P. Which means it might be better to kill you rn anyway so we don't have to deal with that

But that's not very nice

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Kasimir. I need to switch from Arenta!Araris to Pooh!Araris. Gonna take a while for that mental shift to kick in though.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Which means it might be better to kill you rn anyway so we don't have to deal with that

I mean, that's kind of why I'm saying I think it is a good proposition that I'm presenting, yes  

I do think it might not be necessary that Sja would convert me, just leave enough doubt there that I'd soak the kill. That's how Sart played QF4: everyone expected him to go for the conversion all-stars team but he played careful and strategic and let some of the 'most wanted' players tear each other apart. But speculating about Sja's profile doesn't really help us right now in the absence of interaction or evidence as to how Sja is playing.

Even as the irony of the situation strikes me. (Guy who has never been lynched in forever arguing that he should get lynched, oy vey...)

Anyway, again - I still think it's win/win. Arguably I have thrown a bit of a wrench into our prospects of having fruitful lynch discussion D1 but hey it's never too late to get back to it, and I was always going to be a ? because of pre-game chatter, so it might as well be addressed.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, I don't necessarily agree with it  Just that I don't think any of the points are invalid/inaccurate.

How does that work? If you don't think they are invalid or inaccurate, then why do you not agree with it?

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Kasimir. I need to switch from Arenta!Araris to Pooh!Araris. Gonna take a while for that mental shift to kick in though.

Sja, you said you'd help me to die faster  

[|TJ| he/him]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Despite the obvious kindness to the evil converting enemy friend, if I assume v!stormspren!you then e!TJ makes sense. Being okay with killing you cause it'd be a misexe, using an extra life would box him in but he'd be pretty free to convert you since no one would expect him to do that :P. On the other hand, he left enough doubt in the line from him I quoted so that if your exe doesn't get through (which I don't find likely) he can convert you anyway. Which I think it's almost guaranteed that you will end up evil at some point since I think you have an extra life whether that's Sja's or a stormspren, and Sja wants an extra life for the price of a single charge even if we know you got converted. Like, it's a free two cycles for her :P. Which means it might be better to kill you rn anyway so we don't have to deal with that

Matrim's Dice

You voted for me before Illwei's ISO or before Kas claimed stormspren. So v!stormspren!Kas and e!TJ is a lie because at the time you didn't know Kas was stormspren.

[Mat he/him]

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How does that work? If you don't think they are invalid or inaccurate, then why do you not agree with it?

Don't ask me lol

12 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Matrim's Dice

You voted for me before Illwei's ISO or before Kas claimed stormspren. So v!stormspren!Kas and e!TJ is a lie because at the time you didn't know Kas was stormspren.

Smh you actually think you caught me xD TJ

But no, that wasn't the initial reason I voted you. The initial reason I voted you was purely because you said Sja was nice, which you can see from the post I did so. I felt fine leaving it there after Kas claimed and after the ISO.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just to pathwalk and spell out my thoughts a little better:

1. The only reason I'm here and not playing Wrath right now is unfortunately because of a huge clusterchull with my databases but I need a break  Also it turns out grumpy old guy RP is hard when I didn't think it through.

2. I'm normally adamant on a D1 lynch and would normally consider forgoing this to be bad for the Village. However, I do think conversion games are one exception, though this is a bit more complicated as Sja-anat can also kill. If we don't D1 lynch, the odds are good that it will be random, due to no vote minimum and ties being randomised. We also can't spend a day with no lynch pressure at all.

I think the biggest reason to wait is really that with a single Evil player right now, Sja's influence on the lynch is likely minimal. The whole point of gleaning information in a normal game is premised on the idea we can look for connections and concerted pushes. D1 Illwei, Devo, and Steel in LG80 is an example of that. But since Sja is a lone wolf at the moment, looking for her will be a needle in the haystack at this point in time. D1 won't be useless - we can use it as a baseline to check for consistencies. My point is that it will be of less use than it would be in a standard game, and therefore it is less critical for us to ensure that we have a lynch.

3. I think that one thing we should keep an eye out for, alongside voting patterns and the usual post analysis is what Sja's kills are, and what Sja's profile is. (Helpful for BAM too I guess, since Sja is the only Elim BAM can reasonably catch.) Simply put: Sja's kills tell us who Sja's priorities are. We want to know:

• Is Sja converting during the Day and killing at Night?
• Is Sja going for low-info kills or threat kills or control kills?
• Is Sja, on the other hand, prioritising threat conversions, control conversions, or strategic conversions?
• Is Sja playing the low profile SK way, with conversions slapped out when needful, and focusing on kills, or is Sja trying to get a team together ASAP?

Likely there won't be a clear-cut answer, but since Sja cannot kill and convert during the same Turn, if there is a Night kill on an odd cycle, we know it has to be Sja. Knowing Sja's profile helps us both anticipate what Sja will go on to do, and who Sja is likely to be, i.e. where BAM should look.  

My instinct is that a decent chunk of the thread is more quiet than I'd like. (Tani, Xino parked votes, have not heard from Elk, Mint is understandably busy, TUO has been watching the thread but saying nothing at all, which is a good place for Sja to be, Drought and Chantara are similarly quiet.) I still think Illwei is playing too boldly for Sja but she played that way as Kohga so I'm not going to rule her out. But I also think Sja is best served by keeping a low profile and staying out of trouble so that's where I'm looking first. Conversions are a limited resource and burning too many will dent Sja's survivability, so that will affect her play too.

Anyway, this is subject to revision as we get more information as the game goes on. But my suspicions currently veer that way.

Edited to add: Ignore the day comments, my brain is apparently still stuck in LG mode.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Kasimir