Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Mat]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

This good enough for you guys?

You have a lot of elimish reads.

[Condensation]

6 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

You have a lot of elimish reads.

Yeah, that's my second-guessing coming into play. I would guess less than a third of those are actually elims, if any.

[Mat]

16 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

Yeah, that's my second-guessing coming into play. I would guess less than a third of those are actually elims, if any.

Narrow down that third?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

19 hours ago, Lotus said:

Yeah. Cause if the elims had vote manip planned it would be based around the current vote standing. Tieing messed with that

You didn't have a vote cast at the time, so nobody would have targeted you. Any vote manipulation to remove a vote from Fura or Quinn would have just meant that the other would have a 50% chance of dying instead of a 100% chance.

20 hours ago, Ookla's Dice said:

And, why not, I'll throw this out there. Placements in order of surety (Most sure---Least sure):

---

Evil: Jester, SfS, Alvron, Lotus

I don't really see why Lotus would have made herself look really suspicious by putting a vote on an elim teammate to create a tie. Maybe that makes sense for them to do if Fura was also evil since a 1/2 chance to a 2/3 chance of an elim dying is potentially worthwhile if the elim death comes with additional trust for Lotus, but then Fura dying and flipping elim would make Lotus look bad. Introducing an elim teammate to a v/v situation just gives a 2/3 chance for Lotus to look suspicious and a 1/3 chance of an elim dying needlessly. You did order these most to least, so does that mean you have Jester as largely exclusive to Lotus and quite possibly Fura?

[Mat]

Just now, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

You didn't have a vote cast at the time, so nobody would have targeted you. Any vote manipulation to remove a vote from Fura or Quinn would have just meant that the other would have a 50% chance of dying instead of a 100% chance.

I don't really see why Lotus would have made herself look really suspicious by putting a vote on an elim teammate to create a tie. Maybe that makes sense for them to do if Fura was also evil since a 1/2 chance to a 2/3 chance of an elim dying is potentially worthwhile if the elim death comes with additional trust for Lotus, but then Fura dying and flipping elim would make Lotus look bad. Introducing an elim teammate to a v/v situation just gives a 2/3 chance for Lotus to look suspicious and a 1/3 chance of an elim dying needlessly. You did order these most to least, so does that mean you have Jester as largely exclusive to Lotus and quite possibly Fura?

Yeah, that list is rather exclusive upon reconsidering. If Lotus/Fura are evil, Jester isn't, and vice versa for the most part. I hadn't thought of all the possibilities such as why Lotus wouldn't tie if both Jester and Fura were evil when making the list. It's not my team prediction, and after the drastic fail that was my last attempt at that I'm skeptical trying again. 

[Ashbringer]

Hour left until rollover. Get your actions in! And yell at me if I haven't noted them yet...

Also, Highstorm tonight!

[+Lotus]

Storm the high!

[Condensation]

11 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Narrow down that third?

Uh...

Gears: mildly suspicious(PM reasons - sorry!). Null.
Mat: I trust Mat. Enough said(PM reasons and also the ones in the main thread). Strong Village.
SfS: I'm not sure about SfS. They have changed, but that could just be regular change? Mild Village to Null
Araris: Araris has seemed a little more gung-ho in the past, but like I said, could be regular change. Null to Mild Elim.
Ventyl: Vote manip suspicious, it could be an attempt at a mislynch, though. Null to Mild Elim.
Devotary: Trustworthy, in my opinion. PM reasons again. Moderate Village.
Books: Seems kind of suspicious, but I'm not sure. Null.
Lotus: Also rather suspicious. Mild Elim.
Vasher: Seems pretty cool. Mild Village.
eltruT: Hasn't posted much. Null.
Kings_Way: Same. Null.
Supreme: Same. Null.
STINK: We chatted, they seem interesting but I don't have past experience with them. Mild Villager.
Jester: We chatted, same as with STINK, they seem receptive to new ideas. I can't tell much about the game from them, though. Null.
Alvron: Seems suspicious and really wants ties, but I hear that's natural for them? Null to Moderate Elim.
Eternum: They were suspicious of me earlier, but it's died down.(Have you played before? What games?) Null to Mild Village.
Fura: They honestly won't leave me alone, even if other people have spoken for me. Some of their other posts really read village, though. Mild Village to Moderate Elim.

There, I changed some. 5 Mild/Moderate Elims, although those are just the ones I'm most sure about.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

1 hour ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Change of playstyle + Kaladin suspect because he's (in the past) ask/commented on roles that he has been, and he's done that with Kaladin this game.

When did I speculate on roles I have? Also, wouldn't that make me Stone Shaman as well, cause I speculated a Stone Shaman tactic. My playstyle has been different for this game and the last. It's called getting better.

[Mat]

Just now, Somebody from Sel said:

When did I speculate on roles I have? Also, wouldn't that make me Stone Shaman as well, cause I speculated a Stone Shaman tactic. My playstyle has been different for this game and the last. It's called getting better.

The game I GMd you maniped, and people were wondering about the manip, and you were like 'This could have happened' when it was the exact thing that happened. You've done something similar with Kaladin this game. It's different from what you did with the Shaman.

I can respect getting better, which would also include the change in voting patterns, but until you're proven not evil I won't go by just that.

[STINK]

1 hour ago, Ookla's Dice said:

..You know, that one's a bit PMy too. Oops

my god people really forgot that you were probably WGG'd huh

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

1 minute ago, Ookla's Dice said:

The game I GMd you maniped, and people were wondering about the manip, and you were like 'This could have happened' when it was the exact thing that happened. You've done something similar with Kaladin this game. It's different from what you did with the Shaman.

I can respect getting better, which would also include the change in voting patterns, but until you're proven not evil I won't go by just that.

Ok, that was giving my reasoning from another perspective, I'm probably digging my hope deeper by arguing, but so be it. I asked if they could do an action C1 as I didn't know you started with stormlight, not similar. It is different than the Shaman though, I can agree on that.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, STINK said:

my god people really forgot that you were probably WGG'd huh

I can't say the PM reasons ones because the elims would see it in the thread. I've gotten information because of my survival, and have used that to clear/suspect people, but all of that involves sensitive information the elims want and I don't want them to have. So I say 'PM reasons' to explain that yes, I do have a reason for this read, but I can't just say it for all to hear.

[STINK]

Ok so to further explain anything I really do for apparently the rest of this game, I'm gonna throw something out there that I'm realising I genuinely believe.

I'd rather have an elim try to seem convincing as a villager than a villager just knowing it all through lack of PM safety and whoopsy doo. 

If you have a read for any kind of reason and it's convincing, it's always gonna be best for other villagers to know. Doesn't matter how smart you think you are, you are someone capable of manipulation by a single individual. So yeah, at this point (though I don't have anyone PMing me) if someone was pocketing me and doing this and that and yada yada, I'd still go with them over this random trust circle happening when there isn't even a seeker role. 

Maybe I'm on tomorrow idk I don't even get anything from this

[Ashbringer]

Time!

[Ashbringer]

Daziron-son-Odium, Fused of Braize, floated through the hallway on the night he was to- wait, no. He was not Shin, even if this wooden place made it seem so. 

Daziron.

Just Daziron.

Daziron floated down the hallway, scraping his spear along the wall, but it didn’t make a mark, as it was only halfheartedly. The corridors had proven to be dangerous, especially at night, but Daziron wasn’t fazed- both because he’d just come back if killed and also that Szeth’s Cohorts had already failed to take him out once. But that wasn’t his only purpose for being out.

The air was crisp, and felt somehow different from what Daziron was used to moving through. Everything was different in Shinovar, it seemed. What an odd place. He was fortunate to be leaving soon.

Daziron heard a creak in the wood to the left, and realized that indeed, the Cohorts were here for another attempt. Fools.

The figure leapt out of the darkness, knife swinging through the air, aimed at Daziron's chest. He calmly swooped to the side, leaving the figure stumbling into open air. The attacker regained their footing quickly, and came at him again- determined to finish the job even though the moment of surprise had passed.

Almost bored, Daziron flew aside, again sending the attacker's knife only through air, but this time he rammed his forearm into the man's head. The would-be-killer crumpled. Still alive, but unconscious. It would do.

Daziron audibly sighed. He would have thought the Cohorts would have learned from their first failure. Perhaps they would be satisfied with what followed.

Daziron continued down the halls, looking down each corridor. If the tip he had received was… yes, there. In the corner, huddling in the shadows. A Shin youth, looking to be about nine. Poor boy. Who had sent him here to meet someone like Daziron?

Daziron hovered over to the child, lowering to stand on the ground upon coming face-to-face. The boy’s wide eyes looked up at him with fear. He gulped, then spoke.

“Sir, Fused, uh, sir.” He looked down from Daziron’s face, and coughed. “Sir, this is, uh, yours.” He winced, looking ashamed. The boy held out his right hand, curled in a half circle, thumb pointing down, and Daziron watched with anticipation.

'Thunk'

The sound of Honorblade sinking into wood resounded through the corridor, a sound they all had heard quite enough the past few days. But there. There it was. Oh, yes. Bless Honor and Cultivation above, there it was.

Daziron waved the youth away with a “You are dismissed.” and the child scampered out of sight, a simple bystander in this conflict. Well, Daziron supposed he was too. 

He grasped the familiar hilt and pulled the honorblade out of the floor, swishing it through the air. Yes, this was his. “Mother’s home…” He whispered. 

And finally, he let the lightweaving given by the stray Radiant so many days ago wisp away, the image and voice of the Fused dissolving into Light. Battar, Herald of the Almighty, had gotten what she had come for. She smiled, and giggled just a bit.

“Mother’s home.”

An Elsecall later, Shinovar was gone. And she was free. Blessedly, for the first time since the Binding of the Oathpact, she felt free.

 

The Highstorm raged outside.

Perhaps the Stormfather was aware of the One drawing its power. Perhaps not.

But when the people of Shinovar looked through their windows at the weakened storm, they could see His face.

And it smiled.

* * *

Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice was attacked, but survived!

Ookla's Dice / Matrim's Dice has completed a win condition! They were Battar, a secret role, and they succesfully became the Bearer of Battar's Honorblade! Go upvote him for the writeup!

 

Battar's Honorblade has been removed from the game!

* * *

PMs are *checks notes* still open until the next Day turn! All PMs must be between two players only, and must also include @Ookla Fell From The Sky and @Elandera (but NOT Elbereth - she's requested to keep out of Player PMs). Other than that, go wild. 

 

@Ookla the Mistiosa (Mist) has replaced @eltruT for inactivity! Please welcome them to the game!

The following people are being warned for inactivity: @Ookla the Watcher (Kings_Way) and @The Windrunner Supreme. Please post this cycle or you will be replaced with a pinch hitter.

 

The Day Turn will end at 5:00 PM PST on December 15th, in about 47 hours. Get your actions in!

 

And seriously, go upvote Mat!

 

Honorblade List:

Spoiler

• Chanarach’s Honorblade:
  • Division and Abrasion
     
• Vedel’s Honorblade:
  • Abrasion and Progression
     
• Pailiah’s Honorblade:
  • Progression and Illumination
     
• Shalash’s Honorblade:
  • Illumination and Transformation
     
• Battar’s Honorblade: Removed by Battar
  • Transformation and Transportation
     
• Kalak’s Honorblade:
  • Transportation and Cohesion
     
• Ishar’s Honorblade:
  • Tension and Adhesion

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Gears - Roko
2. Ooklil' the Wei (Illwei) - Shin High Council
3. Quinn0928 - Lin-daughter-Lanari / Rinala Rades - Shin High Council and Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade
4. Ookla's Dice (Matrim's Dice) - Daziron-son-Odium - Battar and Bearer of Battar's Honorblade
5. Ookla the Disproportionate (Danex) - Truthless and Bearer of Kalak's Honorblade
6. @Somebody from Sel - 
7. @Ookla the Araris Valerian (Araris Valerian) - Hadrian-son-Penrod
8. TJ Shade - Galatar - Shin High Council and Bearer of Battar's Honorblade
9. @Ookla the Larkin (Ventyl) - The Larkin
10. Ookla the Shadowed (Experience) - Shadow - Shin High Council and Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
11. @Ookla the Hypodecadal (Devotary of Spontaneity) - Ganeth-null-Shantis-Mawelar
12. @Flyingbooks42 - Tsezn
13. @Lotus - Sunwalker
14. @Ookla the Grammatical (Condensation) - Viola-daughter-Condensation
15. @Ookla who goes DORIYAH!! (Vasher212) - Gunandwaf-son-Warbreaker
16. @Ookla the Mistiosa (Mist) - 
17. @Ookla the Watcher (Kings_Way) - Velton-son-Hasweth
18. @The Windrunner Supreme - Supreme Cows
19. @STINK
20. @Ookla the Sprinkle (JesterLavorre) - Jes-son-Laal
21. @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi / Izzy Dedyet
22. @Eternum - 
23. @Furamirionind - 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ookla Fell From The Sky

[Alvron]

Congratz Matrim.  Looks like it wasn't a WGG after all.
Welcome Mist.

Hmm, with six Blades now in game, it is now a little easier for the elims to gain their win con that way in addition to the standard win con.  Not to mention, we have now lost a roleblock ability.  Hopefully, the one with Kalak's Blade will refrain from using the vote manipulation in favor for the roleblocking.

[STINK]

Yeah na looks like I was completely right about the whole Dice situation so see yas

[Condensation]

We just lost all of Mat's knowledge... it's a good thing he posted that list of reads. Now that I think about it, that's probably why he posted those reads.

[Mist]

I'm here *jazz hands*. I kept an eye on the game to a certain extent, and was sus of Fura for how they were pushing on Connie and for a post last turn. 

15 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

23 players left in this game. 19 alive. Maximum 6 possible elims. That leaves 11 village, 2 neutral, 6 elims. Going to go through every cycle and look at how close we are to losing. I will be assuming Chana kills most of the time.

6 elims

  Reveal hidden contents

N3: 11-2-6 (on this night there is minus a player for the NK, and possibly Chana (-NK, -Chana))
D4: 9-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 8-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 5-2-6 (Village loss)

With 1 Chana kill:
N3: 11-2-6 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 9-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 8-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 6-2-6 (Village loss)

Without Chana kills:
N3: 11-2-6 (-NK)
D4: 10-2-6 (-lynch)
N4: 9-2-6 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 7-2-6 (-Lynch)
N5: 6-2-6 (Village loss)

 

With 5 elims:

  Reveal hidden contents

With 2 Chana kill:
N3: 12-2-5 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 10-2-5 (-lynch)
N4: 9-2-5 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 6-2-5 (-lynch)
N5: 5-2-5 (Village Loss)

1 Chana kill is worse in every way than 2 Chana kills, so excluding it to save on effort

Without Chana kills:
N3: 12-2-5 (-NK)
D4: 11-2-5 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-5 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 8-2-5 (-lynch)
N5: 7-2-5 (-NK)
D6: 6-2-5 (-lynch)
N6: 5-2-5 (Village loss)

With 4 elims (cause their roles are powerful):

  Reveal hidden contents

N3: 13-2-4 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 11-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood, -Chana)
D5: 7-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 6-2-4   (-NK, -Chana)
D6: 4-2-4   (Village loss)

With 2 Chana kill:
N3: 13-2-4 (-NK, -Chana)
D4: 11-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 10-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 8-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 7-2-4   (-NK, -Chana)
D6: 5-2-4   (-lynch)
N6: 3-2-4   (Village loss)

1 Chana kill is worse in every way than 2 Chana kills, so excluding it to save on effort

Without Chana kills:
N3: 13-2-4 (-NK)
D4: 12-2-4 (-lynch)
N4: 11-2-4 (-NK, -Nightblood)
D5: 9-2-4   (-lynch)
N5: 8-2-4   (-NK)
D6: 7-2-4   (-lynch)
N6: 6-2-4   (-NK)
D7: 5-2-4   (-lynch)
N7: 4-2-4   (Village loss)

TLDR: I believe 5 elims to be the most likely. This means we have between 1-2 mis-lynches left depending on how much Chana chooses to kill.

Fura said the event of having one kill was worse in every way than 2. More than one kill is, in the way Fura was setting it up, worse than one kill, as opposed to 1 kill being worse than 2, which seems like a Freudian slip. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

We just lost all of Mat's knowledge... it's a good thing he posted that list of reads. Now that I think about it, that's probably why he posted those reads.

I know his reads are at least partially wrong, so not the most useful thing in the world, but not the least.

[Condensation]

I'll go look back at those, there's probably something I missed.

[Mist]

Aaand I was going to vote but forgot. Furamironind @Furamirionind.

[STINK]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

We just lost all of Mat's knowledge... it's a good thing he posted that list of reads. Now that I think about it, that's probably why he posted those reads.

His reads are worth nothing because he gave no reasoning or anything, he is worth null to this game now so cheers to everyone that did PM him

[Condensation]

I disagree. He's given me plenty of reasoning(PM secrets again) and so I know why he had those reads. Based on lynches and/or night kills, I can work more with those. Very helpful.