Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

[Mist]

20 hours ago, Ookla the Hypodecadal said:

I don't think 2 kills is worse than 1 in the model? In the five elim scenario, only one Chana kill instead of two ends up reaching a night turn with 6-2(or 1 now)-5, which is just as much of a loss as 5-2-5 since parity will be reached after the elim kill. In the four elim scenario, one Chana kill goes to 6-2-4 instead of 5-2-4 at the beginning of D6, which still loses at the end of N6. Fura's model neglects the possibility of elim kills being roleblocked or the target protected so "worse in every way" isn't strictly accurate for anything but the worst case scenario, but having that second Chanarach kill opens up the possibility of hitting an elim.

The way Fura set it up was that all of the kills were on villagers, and yes, Chanarach is likely/able to hit an elim. I'm saying if both Chanarach kills hit villagers, 1 is better than 2, not worse, which is what I read from that post.

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

MMmm I am not completely sure what you mean here. Or maybe I wasn't clear? The number of kills I was talking about was the number of Chana kills. I said 1 was worse than two because whether Chana kills once or twice, we have the same number of lynches either way. If we have the same number of lynches, it would be better for a villlage Chana to get more kills in because that's a net gain of village directed deaths, meaning a greater chance of hitting an elim. 

In short, in debating the second kill:
If she doesn't, we better lynch correctly.
If she does, either we better lynch correctly or she needs to hit an elim. Either will do.

Oh, I misunderstood that. Thank you for the clarification. Fura. What I read it as was that 1 kill was worse than two, and you had set it up with all of the kills hitting villagers, so it would be worse, at least from what I saw. 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Araris Valerian said:

Vote Tally:
Fura (2): Mist, Ventyl
Connie (1): Araris

For comparison, there are 17 players still alive. The elims aren’t going to find themselves, you know. If everyone waits till the last 3 hours of the cycle to place a vote, then we don’t get very good discussion.

Yes. Vote! Vote vote vote!

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Sprinkle said:

I still don’t love the Fura lynch. Mist, where is this slip you’re talking about? I’m not quite sure what a Freudian slip is, so I could use some explanation.

Fura said 1 kill was worse than 2, but he explained it sufficiently for me. It apparently doesn't matter if 1 or 2 kills occur for LyLo, and so there's not much difference, besides more village-directed kills. 

Edit: sorry about the color. I'm on mobile. I may or may not fix it later. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ookla the Mistiosa

[Alvron]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Mistiosa said:

The way Fura set it up was that all of the kills were on villagers, and yes, Chanarach is likely/able to hit an elim. I'm saying if both Chanarach kills hit villagers, 1 is better than 2, not worse, which is what I read from that post.

There's an idea.  Chanarach, if I'm still alive at the end of D6, please, please send me your Blade.  I have a very good track record of killing elims so it would really help the village if I could get my hands on a kill.  

[Furamirionind]

49 minutes ago, Alvron said:

There's an idea.  Chanarach, if I'm still alive at the end of D6, please, please send me your Blade.  I have a very good track record of killing elims so it would really help the village if I could get my hands on a kill.  

Even though I don't truly trust Alv... I'd be cool with this

Gears - Neutral... Maybe slight village
Pretty busy, so has very little content... Said he'd be busy before the game started so this doesn't mean anything.  
I like this post:

Even though it's missing a lot of important information that makes it difficult to read, it feels like Gears is trying to solve the game... However the list of people they want to cast suspicion on at the end is suspicious because it has a double standard in it. It's suspicious of Eternum and Devotary for giving "no reasoning" when it doesn't put Quinn in there...

Despite me finding this normally suspicious... On the flip side, Quinn was a villager, so it's unlikely an elim would do something obviously suspicious to protect a villager. More likely he wrote this quickly, hence the issues I have with it... That being said, that could mean it was a decent elim post with major flaws, or a decent village post with major flaws...

SfS - Village
Honestly no idea about SfS... I'd probably give slight village. On first read it felt like he was actively trying to deny the village information, but he's actually given some good ideas and thoughts that no one else has. Perhaps this is an elim sign as typically you don't see players with similar posting styles contributing a ton of new stuff to the thread... but I'm not about to elim read him for a horrible meta reason like that. Lol

In addition, in his defense of himself he has been a bit aggressive... which draws attention to himself. Lastly, he has had a lot of suspicion on him for the past cycle or two, and no one has said anything in his defense... He reminds me of Ark honestly.

Mist - Neutral
We'll have to see what happens from here on out. Coming out swinging but then backing off would normally be a sign of an elim, but she's a pinch hitter, and I think in that context it could just as easily be a sign of being village.

Kings_Way - Neutral
Has added very little original content. The only original thing is:

Which ended up being incorect... However he he is casting suspicion on Connie. If Connie is a villager, this looks suspicious being the only content he has given. If Connie is an elim... He's probably not an elim. He's also one of the few people in this game actively thinking about secrets despite being minimally active. This makes him a prime target for possibly being a secret himself.  

Windrunner - Neutral
Literally no content. Only post is saying he hasn't read the thread yet.

It's times like this I kind of wish we didn't have pinch hitters and people just died for being inactive... The downside with pinch hitters is we have a player that we have a D1 amount of info on... but on D4... Kind of sucks. Lol

Stink - Village
I don't trust my ability to read Stink as an elim in the first place... but he's been playing exactly how he normally does in our games as village. He's been adding content (though typically indirectly) and has been having a very similar experience as me this game... So I'd rule him as village barring more information.

 

---

After working on this for a couple hours, I'm going to take a break and post this. It's not really a ton of content. I started going down the list but started feeling a tad overwhelmed, so I just did the easy ones first.

Just a note though, these are my content-based-reads. After integrating and modifying my gut reads based on this, Through PoE I do believe at this moment in time my pick for an elim team would be Connie, Ventyl, Jester, maybe Devotary... Though you could switch out either Jester or Devotary with a couple other people.

Of course, this is subject to change once I complete my content reads, as I havent done those for any of those listed as likely elims. Lol

EDIT: Whoops, didn't realize I was double posting. Been a bit and probably worth the notification though.

[Alvron]

8 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

It's times like this I kind of wish we didn't have pinch hitters and people just died for being inactive... The downside with pinch hitters is we have a player that we have a D1 amount of info on... but on D4... Kind of sucks. Lol

Stink - Village
I don't trust my ability to read Stink as an elim in the first place... but he's been playing exactly how he normally does in our games as village. He's been adding content (though typically indirectly) and has been having a very similar experience as me this game... So I'd rule him as village barring more information.

I agree that pinch hitters aren't really that helpful.  On one hand it gives those that couldn't join a chance to play but on the other, we tend to give them a few cycles to catch up and if they are evil, that can be devastating for the village.  An extra vote for the village is always a good thing but an elim with fresh ideas and an outsiders view greatly helps the elims.  Overall, I would say it's a good idea to have pinch hitters but it's close to a push.

Stinks playstyle is very much his own.  I've seen him play this way as village, elim and neutral.  I've seen him commit suicide as an elim on D2 simply to do it.  Personally, I would lean closer to elim the village on Stink but with Stink, it's a coinflip and even I couldn't call it with any degree of accuracy.

[STINK]

16 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I've seen him commit suicide as an elim on D2 simply to do it. 

wait when did I do this

[Alvron]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

wait when did I do this

LG36

[STINK]

Oh yeah fun times

[Condensation]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Sprinkle said:

I still don’t love the Fura lynch. Mist, where is this slip you’re talking about? I’m not quite sure what a Freudian slip is, so I could use some explanation.

Also, Connie’s main reason for lynching Fura was him tunneling on her. While I think that Connie is village, I also think that’s a bad reason to vote.

And, yes I’m aware there are other reasons for voting Fura, I just read them as village.

Yeah, I'm scared of people who tunnel on me. If they get a kill then I likely die.

But there's a reason I haven't rejoined it.

[Flyingbooks]

On 12/13/2020 at 6:04 PM, Somebody from Sel said:

I know his reads are at least partially wrong, so not the most useful thing in the world, but not the least.

 

23 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

He did give reads, a third of them are incorrect, maybe even two, but he still have reasoning a few.

How do you know around how many people Matrim read incorrectly? I would understand knowing a few reads for certain, but knowing the approximate percentage of people who Matrim read incorrectly makes me a bit suspicious that you could be an elim, since they know who's on the elim team. On the other hand, this would be such a big slip that I doubt an elim would do it, so I'm not really that suspicious of you. Either way, I'm going to vote for you until they explain why you said this and how you know. Somebody.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

8 hours ago, Eternum said:

Good job, Mat. Claiming Vasher was clever, but it didn't make much sense after a bit of thought

I'd like to apologize for my inactivity these past couple of days, and I owe Quinn an apology too..

I saw Connie asking if I've played before: yeah, I have. QF45 is my most recent, and probably the most indicative of how I play. Also, it's the only game I remember by number besides MR29

As for Mat, I'm pretty sure he was really trying to solve the game. Regardless.

I'm.. starting to think the elims started with no Blades and this whole thing was a red herring. Shaman, I'd appreciate you contacting me, but I suppose it's fine if you don't trust me.

I won't vote yet, but I'd be willing to lynch Lotus or SfS. I'm not sure if I could be persuaded to vote Fura but we'll see what I'll think on a reread.

Mind sharing why, then?

... I'm sus on there and I know I'm Village. That means I know at least one is wrong.

4 hours ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

 

How do you know around how many people Matrim read incorrectly? I would understand knowing a few reads for certain, but knowing the approximate percentage of people who Matrim read incorrectly makes me a bit suspicious that you could be an elim, since they know who's on the elim team. On the other hand, this would be such a big slip that I doubt an elim would do it, so I'm not really that suspicious of you. Either way, I'm going to vote for you until they explain why you said this and how you know. Somebody.

He gave three reasonings. Out of said reasoning I know one is incorrect. One out of three is a third. Math. It was mostly a joke.

[Eternum]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Sprinkle said:

I still don’t love the Fura lynch. Mist, where is this slip you’re talking about? I’m not quite sure what a Freudian slip is, so I could use some explanation.

Also, Connie’s main reason for lynching Fura was him tunneling on her. While I think that Connie is village, I also think that’s a bad reason to vote.

And, yes I’m aware there are other reasons for voting Fura, I just read them as village.

You.. voted on Fura last cycle, though. What's with the backtracking?

[+JesterLavorre]

28 minutes ago, Eternum said:

You.. voted on Fura last cycle, though. What's with the backtracking?

I voted Fura because Mat voted them, and I trusted Mat, and because I wanted to avoid a tied lynch and voting anyone else would have put us closer to that. (that didn’t work out well).

[Flyingbooks]

11 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

... I'm sus on there and I know I'm Village. That means I know at least one is wrong.

He gave three reasonings. Out of said reasoning I know one is incorrect. One out of three is a third. Math. It was mostly a joke.

Somebody

[Eternum]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Sprinkle said:

I voted Fura because Mat voted them, and I trusted Mat, and because I wanted to avoid a tied lynch and voting anyone else would have put us closer to that. (that didn’t work out well).

I don't like the first point at all since I don't think that's a good enough reason to vote anyone, but the second argument is not actually true? When you voted on Fura last cycle, there were 5 votes on them and the person with the second-most votes was Connie at 2. So maybe that's true later on in the cycle but that's not what you're talking about here, unless I'm misinterpreting.

[Furamirionind]

Araris Valerian - Village
Seems to be actively trying to solve the game. Accurately calls out players for major/minor missteps, sometimes votes on them sometimes not. Reads on players seem to change understandably from a village perspective based on the state of the game and other player's posts.

Ventyl - Elim

Spoiler

 

Quote

Anyways, I need to go re-read the rules real quick, and I probably won’t have any reliable reads until D3, sorry!

Not damning, but suspicious. First post is putting off the need to give the thread content by either voting or giving reads, which is a common thing elims do.

Again, puts off doing analysis or giving content until "later cycles"... which cycles are those? That's not indicated. He says he has reads, but he doesn't share anything.

Araris already pointed this out, but this is my first time doing a detailed ISO of people this game. This is super suspicious... It sounds here that he either already knows Connie is village, or that they're elims together and he is trying to push the idea that she's village more... Granted I think the first is more likely.
Every word in this post is predicated on the assumption that Connie is village.

This is his response to Illwei (in my opinion) misinterpreting his post. He doesn't provide clarification or anything. Instead he asks for mercy? Why wouldn't a villager just clear up the misinterpretation? 
Whether village or elim, this indicates to me that his previous post wasn't real analysis. It was something he posted for the attempt of looking like he was putting out content with little to no thought behind it. This could be village or elim, but more likely elim.

Here he says he'd be open to lynching Araris for the sole reason Araris is voting on him. This sounds like an elim mindset thing. He's ok with wasting an entire lynch purely to save his life. In addition, I know that Ventyl is better than this kind of analysis because I played a couple games with him before, and watched him in more than that. 

 

As of writing this, Ventyl is actually now my highest suspicion.

Devotary of Spontaneity - Slight Village

Spoiler

 

Cast's suspicion on gears with no vote. Devotary usually places her votes later in the cycle though so I'm not sure.

Speculated on elim teams. Not realy AI imo... Though did call Danex being a neutral.

I like this post. Seems village to me.

Village again

Village again.

... umm... I'm a little concerned this game with how village Devotary seems? lol. She always seems suspicious or neutral to me normally.
It is worth noting in this post she over simplified why Ventyl was being voted on in a way that seems to be against the Ventyl lynch

 

I'm going to say Devotary is slight village, but if Ventyl flips evil Devotary will move to slight elim.

FlyingBooks - ELIM

Spoiler

 

I had Books as minimally active in my notes, when actually they have been extremely active. This concerns me as many elims try to make non-controversial posts to stay under the radar and be forgettable.

Votes on Connie

Took vote off Connie when she was getting more attention. Danex had just voted on her and I implied I likely would.

 

Still D1, and now Connie is village.

Votes on Danex, creating the beginning of the counter lynch to Connie.

• Condensation (5): Quinn0928, Furamirionind, Eternum, Araris Valerian, Gears
• Gears (2): STINK, TJ Shade
• Danex (2): Matrim's Dice, Flyingbooks42
• Illwei (1): Danex

Further reinforcing the Ventyl/Connie is not e/e theory, as I believe Books/Connie being e/e is more likely, this further separates the possible elim teams. I'd also say this makes books/Venyl not e/e as well.

Now he waffles on the Fura/Connie lynch, but then sides with Connie using the reasoning that he is sheeping Matrim.

Basically says not suspicious of Connie or Fura or Ventyl, but would be willing to vote on the latter two. Then procrastinates on putting an actual vote in order to see where the thread goes. That's suspicious.

Despite never mentioning Lotus before in the game (as far as I can remember) says they've been a long term suspicion. The vote itself isn't necessarily bad, but it's cast 15 minutes before rollover on a target never discussed, who Books even said won't be relevant to the result of the lynch. This makes me think that EITHER Jester/Books is not e/e, or alternatively if Books did vote on one of the three lynch targets, they'd have to vote on me to seem village. But they didn't want me to die because that could cause people to go after Jester as I started the train on her, followed by Matrim. And if they knew they wanted Matrim dead (probably thought he'd flip village) they wouldn't want it known that that lynch was started by two elims.
I don't think either possibility is more likely. But either way, if Books is an elim the vote on Lotus makes a lot of sense.

And now Lotus is out of the conversation...

 

Tied for me with Ventyl as extremely suspicious. If Books flips evil, kill Condensation/Jester next depending.

Lotus - Village
Full disclosure I only skimmed through Lotus's posts, as most are nonsense. However, I think she's mislynch bait. 

My sole reasoning is I've gone pseudo-insane several times in these games (great examples LG55 for evil, and MR35 for village). As an elim, I start out kind of wacky, but get more and more focused on game stuff and reasoning. The insane part goes into the doc, because you need to be careful not to be insane and get lynched for it in thread. As a villager there's no outlet for the insanity, so it goes all in thread. I think that's what's happening to Lotus. The game started and they were trying to play, but they just kinda... went insane.

---

Ok. I have 5 more to do hopefully before rollover, but this is enough to put a vote down at least. (Edit: Still need to do Condensation, Vasher, Jester, Alv, Eternum)

Connie

Ventyl

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Furamirionind

[+Lotus]

I'm sorry, I just haven't been getting into this game as much as usual. Sorry. 

I'm finding SfS a little suspicious along with Arais. Don't like Jester either.

Actually, I don't really trust... uh anyone. Most trustworthy might be Alvron and or Mist but those are pretty much Null.

[Condensation]

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I'm sorry, I just haven't been getting into this game as much as usual. Sorry. 

I'm finding SfS a little suspicious along with Arais. Don't like Jester either.

Actually, I don't really trust... uh anyone. Most trustworthy might be Alvron and or Mist but those are pretty much Null.

How do you trust Mist? She just barely got here and eltruT didn't comment, like, at all!

I'm not saying that you shouldn't trust Mist, I'm just saying that unless you've been PMing a lot, Mist should be completely Null.

[Alvron]

29 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

As a villager there's no outlet for the insanity, so it goes all in thread.

Use the outlet of the GM PM.  It's loads of fun to rant to the GMs and them not being able to say anything.  It's also fun for the GMs as they get to see your rantings and have a good laugh depending on how far off your reads are. 

[+Lotus]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

How do you trust Mist? She just barely got here and eltruT didn't comment, like, at all!

Yeah thats how bad my reads are. Everyones so far on the Elim side that Mist is village because she's null

[Condensation]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

Yeah thats how bad my reads are. Everyones so far on the Elim side that Mist is village because she's null

Well, that's a shame. My reads are kind of like that too.

[Eternum]

I'm going to vote Jester/Ookla the Sprinkle .

Last cycle, they thought Fura was village but thought lynching them was worth the information which genuinely makes no sense to me. Their reasoning seems flimsy and, unless I misinterpreted as I said in my earlier post, they're outright wrong about parts of it. But they haven't even responded to that one yet, so..

EDIT: Also, Shaman, please hit me up LMAO

Edited December 15, 2020 by Eternum

[STINK]

omg Shaman hit me up instead of all these nerds they don't know anything

[Elandera]

Vote Count:

Ookla the Grammatical/Connie (1) - Araris
Furamirionind (2) - Ookla the Larkin/Ventyl, Lotus
Ookla the Sprinkle/Jester (1) - Eternum
Ookla the Larkin/Ventyl (1) - Furamirionind

[Furamirionind]

Vote Tally:
Fura (2): Mist, Ventyl, Lotus
Connie (1): Araris
Somebody from Sel (0): FlyingBooks
Ookla the Larkin/Ventyl (1): Fura
Jester/Ookla the Sprinkle (1): Eternum

Formatted:
Fura (2): Ventyl, Lotus
Connie (1): Araris
Ookla the Larkin/Ventyl (1): Fura
Jester/Ookla the Sprinkle (1): Eternum

We are less than 2 hours from rollover and less than a third of our players have voted and no one has gotten more than two votes... This isn't great.
@Gears - I know you're busy, but you're online right now.
@Somebody from Sel - You've been on this cycle to defend yourself. Feel like attacking anyone?
@Ookla the Larkin - Feel like joining the lynch I started? =)
@Ookla the Hypodecadal - You've been on this cycle but haven't placed a vote. Hope everything's ok!
@Flyingbooks42 - I'm a little more suspicious of you that you had a suspicion on someone but backed off and didn't vote on anyone else when that vote was challenged. Perhaps you could help remove some of that suspicion by voting on someone else?
@Ookla the Grammatical - You've said you no longer think that my lynch is the best one this cycle. This is possibly our last mislynch. Did you read my analysis and did it convince you of anyone in particular being suspicious?
@Ookla who goes DORIYAH!! - I've heard you're quite the PMer. A little sad I haven't gotten a PM yet. In absence of that, do you think Books, Ventyl, or I am the most suspicious?
@Ookla the Mistiosa - I was a fan of your posts to begin with where you voted on me, though a tad saddened you have yet to follow those up with a vote on anyone else... Could I convince you to join me on Ventyl?
@Ookla the Watcher Hi! You around?
@The Windrunner Supreme Hi! You around?
@STINK - Hey Stink, I know you're frustrated with the state of the game, but do you have any thoughts as to who would be a good person to brutally murder put out of their misery?
@Ookla the Sprinkle - You've been around this cycle. Any thoughts on who to kill? Maybe you'd be for killing FlyingBooks because if they flip village I might not suspect you as much anymore?
@Alvron - I actually thought you had voted but I guess I was wrong...
 

---

Since it seems to be the trend, Hey Shaman... oh whatever.

[Alvron]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

@Alvron - I actually thought you had voted but I guess I was wrong...

I'm waiting and seeing if another tie will be possible.