Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[Illwei]

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The only important color is the light blue, which is reserved for out of game comments relating to real life events.

I mean, and technically red and green...the voting colors..

@Whysper My comment was a joke lol. I put the sentence you quoted in white text so, looking at the thread, you wouldn't be able to see it. (technically I'm in dark mode so it doesn't apply to me but anyways...)

8 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What is the first thing you see?

...okay I guess the right thing to say would have been "I don't see that" because I didn't really see anything else :P. I was just confused all around. I was thinking that if Elk thought that Turtle was doing some sort of distancing thing from Mist then why wouldn't he just stay on Turtle?

[+Whysper she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

@Whysper My comment was a joke lol. I put the sentence you quoted in white text so, looking at the thread, you wouldn't be able to see it. (technically I'm in dark mode so it doesn't apply to me but anyways...)

Ohhhh. Haha, well I'm in dark mode too, so that's why it clearly stood out for me.  I mean, who doesn't use dark mode???

[Ashbringer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Whysper said:

I mean, who doesn't use dark mode???

Angry mobile user noises

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I mean, and technically red and green...the voting colors.

...okay I guess the right thing to say would have been "I don't see that" because I didn't really see anything else :P. I was just confused all around. I was thinking that if Elk thought that Turtle was doing some sort of distancing thing from Mist then why wouldn't he just stay on Turtle?

Out of white/blue/purple blue is the only significant one.

It does seem like it would make more sense for Elkanah to stay on Turtle, but that doesn't seem to be what's happening.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 or 4? Y'all are seriously underestimating Straw's distribution

The previous long game he hosted (LG67) had a seven-member elim team out of a total of 23 players. 

Of course, that depends on distribution of roles, but still 4 is too less imo. To be on the safer side, I'll assume 6+HI, although 5+HI is more likely.

[+Whysper she/her]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

3 or 4? Y'all are seriously underestimating Straw's distribution

The previous long game he hosted (LG67) had a seven-member elim team out of a total of 23 players. 

Of course, that depends on distribution of roles, but still 4 is too less imo. To be on the safer side, I'll assume 6+HI, although 5+HI is more likely.

Oh wow, now I'm a bit worried. Though I assume this is balanced by most being Regulars. I've only played a game with that many Elims when everyone was Regular (though there were ITAs).

[Illwei]

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

3 or 4? Y'all are seriously underestimating Straw's distribution

The previous long game he hosted (LG67) had a seven-member elim team out of a total of 23 players. 

Of course, that depends on distribution of roles, but still 4 is too less imo. To be on the safer side, I'll assume 6+HI, although 5+HI is more likely.

That was 7??? For some reason i thought it was 5??

Striker...devotary....araris...xino...(zillah?)

Yeah wait i probably just thought that because i cant remember whos on the elim team. 

That was also a majority vanilla game yes? There were like 4 radiants and the rest were vanilla?

[+Whysper she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

That was also a majority vanilla game yes? There were like 4 radiants and the rest were vanilla?

Ahhh, so people do use the term vanilla here. I wasn't sure, so I stuck with Regular.

[Ashbringer he/him]

In interest of getting a vote out before I forget tomorrow... Turtle. Elk's come back and done analysis, and seems to suspect a Turtle-Mist team; Turtle suspects a Mist-someone team as well as Elkanah, and then votes on... Condensation, for no visible reason. @eltruT, can you explain this more?

I'd also appreciate @Mist's input here - do you suspect a Elk-Turtle team? Because if so then we have a nice little suspicion circle and are one step closer to Aman's secret wincon.

[+Whysper she/her]

And yeah, I likely won't be around for EoD since that's in the middle of the night for me. Hopefully we get an Elim this time. And now with the revelation that there can be as many as 5 or 6 Elims, we probably do need to push harder on some of these low posters. There must be at least a couple Elims among them.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Whysper

[|TJ| he/him]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Striker...devotary....araris...xino...(zillah?)

Devotary wasn't elim. I Squired her xD 

Striker, Araris, Xino, Zillah, Mint, Mage, Silber.

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

That was also a majority vanilla game yes? There were like 4 radiants and the rest were vanilla?

Five I think. Bondsmith, Edgedancer, Truthwatcher, Skybreaker and Windrunner. But we could Squire so that's basically 10 non-vanilla roles. 

.

Not able to post below the quote so here we go:

This also has a slight disadvantage. I'm not sure which tactic Hemalurgists might go for, but I'd imagine at least some of them trying not to be too visible or not giving too much analysis as they may get too much attention and might get analysis-killed. I wouldn't approve of it, but I do think some might employ this method, so I'm not sure if Contribution Crusade is the way to go. 

4 minutes ago, Whysper said:

And now with the revelation that there can be as many as 5 or 6 Elims, we probably do need to push harder on some of these low posters. There must be at least a couple Elims among them. 

[Illwei]

I have a question for all of you:

Say you have a top suspicion, but you are equally if not more suspicious of that person being a Hemalurgist. do you let them live, or kill them anyway, knowing that you might advance the Elims greater towards their goals than killing a vanilla player, or do you let them live knowing that they might be an Elim?

[+Whysper she/her]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

This also has a slight disadvantage. I'm not sure which tactic Hemalurgists might go for, but I'd imagine at least some of them trying not to be too visible or not giving too much analysis as they may get too much attention and might get analysis-killed. I wouldn't approve of it, but I do think some might employ this method, so I'm not sure if Contribution Crusade is the way to go. 

Hmm, true. Some might take this tactic. But then we're also not going to get the Elims trying to slip UTR.

If we are accidentally pushing/voting for a village Hemalurgist, they will need to claim. Yes, they then become a target, but I don't think there's any way we completely avoid something like this. Not all Elims are going to make themselves obvious. At least if they claim truthfully, we get a chance at selecting another lynch. And maybe we have a villager who can protect them. Also, the Hemalurgist should confirm themselves in the doc to other Hemalurgists, who can then get out the word to trusted contacts.

[|TJ| he/him]

Just now, Illwei said:

I have a question for all of you:

Say you have a top suspicion, but you are equally if not more suspicious of that person being a Hemalurgist. do you let them live, or kill them anyway, knowing that you might advance the Elims greater towards their goals than killing a vanilla player, or do you let them live knowing that they might be an Elim?

Depends. Do you suspect them only to be an elim or do you suspect them to be elim Hemalurgist? If it's the latter, then go for it. If you think it's between normal elim and village Hemalurgist, well I don't really know. Wait for more evidence probably. 

[Illwei]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Depends. Do you suspect them only to be an elim or do you suspect them to be elim Hemalurgist? If it's the latter, then go for it. If you think it's between normal elim and village Hemalurgist, well I don't really know. Wait for more evidence probably. 

How would you know the difference between Elim and Village hemalurgist? you yourself don't have access to the Hemalurgist doc, and It's just things that they've said in the thread that kind of make you think that. 

[+Whysper she/her]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Say you have a top suspicion, but you are equally if not more suspicious of that person being a Hemalurgist. do you let them live, or kill them anyway, knowing that you might advance the Elims greater towards their goals than killing a vanilla player, or do you let them live knowing that they might be an Elim?

Do you mean you have some suspicions they are Elim and other suspicions that they are village Hemalurgist? If that's the case, you are basically null on them and should look elsewhere. Unless you meant they might be Elim Hemalurgist, in which case it doesn't matter since it is only village Hemalurgist that keep the HI from going free.

I think we need to keep on people with a good chance of being Elim. If we run out of those, we may have to push harder and even vote on others, like low posters, eventually. And it may come to the point where we are about to lynch a village Hemalurgist. At that point, they pretty much need to claim and we'll give them a chance and seek another lynch.

5 minutes ago, Whysper said:

If we are accidentally pushing/voting for a village Hemalurgist, they will need to claim. Yes, they then become a target, but I don't think there's any way we completely avoid something like this. Not all Elims are going to make themselves obvious. At least if they claim truthfully, we get a chance at selecting another lynch. And maybe we have a villager who can protect them. Also, the Hemalurgist should confirm themselves in the doc to other Hemalurgists, who can then get out the word to trusted contacts.

Just quoting my previous post where I expand on what should happen in this scenario.

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

How would you know the difference between Elim and Village hemalurgist? you yourself don't have access to the Hemalurgist doc, and It's just things that they've said in the thread that kind of make you think that. 

Similar way, I suppose. If they're doing elim-y stuff and their posts indicate they are Hemalurgists, they're both? I'm not really sure. For that matter, I'm not sure how you would deduce someone is Hemalurgist from their post, but of course, don't reveal that. 

[Illwei]

11 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Just quoting my previous post where I expand on what should happen in this scenario.

Haha yeah you posted that at the same time I posted mine.

Anyways- 

Unlike the other LGs I've played so far, this game also has an Inactivity filter, so Orlok and Experience are scheduled to die if they don't post this cycle. Next up would be Silber and Flying books if they don't post this cycle and next. they have a lot more time

Also, yeah. this game has an Inactivity filter, so I doubt the Elims would be 7. we're about to lose 3 people tonight instead of the usual one.

Yeah. just read over straw's notes on LG67 and there is zero way there is 7 elims with the inactivity filter here. 

D1: 16-7
N1: 15-7
D2: 14-7
N2: 11-7

There we've basically lost if both Orlok and XP are village. especially if both Silber and Flyingbooks get filtered out.

26 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Devotary wasn't elim. I Squired her xD

Wait they weren't? then...when were they an Elim...
I really thought...I was surprised at the end...when they flipped elim....
Ah. Mage and Mint. Ah. yes. I see. yes. the two people I kept trying to heal....hopefully whoever got the healer in this game is better than I am :P.

EDIT:
I need to look over the roles in this game and things like that If i want to actually think about distribution, as they are kinda, only similar in the fact that they're majority vanilla

Edited October 27, 2020 by Illwei

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Unlike the other LGs I've played so far, this game also has an Inactivity filter, so Orlok and Experience are scheduled to die if they don't post this cycle. Next up would be Silber and Flying books if they don't post this cycle and next. they have a lot more time

There are pinch-hitters this time. They won't die, they'll be replaced. 

Also, HI doesn't count towards win-con so we don't have to assume 7 as worst-case no. of elims. 

Don't have access to laptop right now, thoughts post to come later

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

There are pinch-hitters this time. They won't die, they'll be replaced. 

The only person who I saw sign up for being a pinch-hitter was Burnt.

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm not really sure what to say as not much has happened this cycle. I assume @Amanuensis is still suspicious of Elkanah since last night, but maybe that's not the case since Aman is now voting for someone with a vote on Elk. Still discussion about Elkanah; I wouldn't say Ventyl was the best or easiest person to swing the vote to, but if Elkanah was evil the elims would have wanted to do something about it instead of none of them voting.

Not quite. I'm not ruling him out, but I am entertaining a reality where D1's lynch was between two villagers.

6 hours ago, Elkanah said:

So is this...

Why??

 

I can't believe it took 20 hours for someone to finally ask why I voted Elandera.

Well, friends, this is why.

Elandera, Day 1 Post 2

"I don't like the premise of votes on Mist or Elkanah. I'll try to get a vote on someone else at least a few hours before rollover."

This is the important bit. Keep it in mind for now.

Elandera, Day 2 Post 1

On 10/26/2020 at 4:54 AM, Elandera said:

I doubt Gears was killed because of the HI claim. If the elims hit someone who survives, it's either the HI or the Voidbringer and the village can then avoid lynching them until they know for sure which role they have. It doesn't play to their hand to accidentally attack the HI.

My suspicion at the moment is that Gears was killed more for the lack of information it would provide (common strategy early in games), or for the comments he made during the night cycle about the D1 lynch swing. His posts during the day were all pretty benign and mostly consisted of not having the time to keep up with the ever-moving thread.

Then at night, he posted these:

..... wait. When did they get rid of the direct post link function? How long have I been away???

Anyways, he posted a breakdown of the votes on what's now page 15 of the thread, then a follow-up breakdown of his suspicions.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Gears seemed most suspicious of Elkanah, elruT, and TJ. 

I'm not sure I agree entirely with all of that, but it's possible there are at least two elims among the list of players he called out. Right now, I'm a little more suspicious of Illwei, as from what I remember (I haven't had the time and energy to read through the entire thread so far), they seemed to be trying to avoid any vote at all on Elkanah. 

All of that hinges, though, on Elkanah being elim. So, let's get voting started, shall we?

Elkanah

Okay, so. Let's imagine a world you (the reader of this post) are an eliminator in this game. On Day 1, the village serves you two of their own kind on a silver platter (Mist and Elkanah early game, or Elkanah and Ventyl late game). Do you A: keep your own name from getting dragged in by choosing one of the sides you know will be proven wrong? Or B: say you don't like either lynch and promise a vote later (with the optional choice of actually voting, which Elandera did not do).

Now, a night later and at a new day's start, you already know who's going to die ahead of time, and you know the exact reason why the elims chose them. So what do you do? A: reason the kill was likely to keep us from gaining much information and let other players bring up new leads, or B: reason the kill was likely to keep us from gaining much information, then find a way to spin it so a villager we almost lynched on D1 is guilty and vote for them, with hopes of funneling the discussion/votes into already-explored territory and thus distract the villagers further?

I'm genuinely curious about people's responses. Please feel free to add your own choices if you think you'd do something differently, in order to determine if you think Elandera has a Village or Eliminator agenda. Me, personally? I've been an elim a lot and posted very similar things to Elandera in this game.

So yeah. I'm a lil suspicious.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Amanuensis

[+Whysper she/her]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay, so. Let's imagine a world you (the reader of this post) are an eliminator in this game. On Day 1, the village serves you two of their own kind on a silver platter (Mist and Elkanah early game, or Elkanah and Ventyl late game). Do you A: keep your own name from getting dragged in by choosing one of the sides you know will be proven wrong? Or B: say you don't like either lynch and promise a vote later (with the optional choice of actually voting, which Elandera did not do).

Definitely option B and just allow the Villagers to lynch their own. As far as placing a vote, if most people voted, then it would stick out to not vote, so you probably have to choose one while still protesting about not liking either. But if a lot of people haven't voted, then just skip voting also.

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Now, a night later and at a new day's start, you already know who's going to die ahead of time, and you know the exact reason why the elims chose them. So what do you do? A: reason the kill was likely to keep us from gaining much information and let other players bring up new leads, or B: reason the kill was likely to keep us from gaining much information, then find a way to spin it so a villager we almost lynched on D1 is guilty and vote for them, with hopes of funneling the discussion/votes into already-explored territory and thus distract the villagers further?

Reasoning the kill doesn't give us much info is something both Villager and Elim might say. And I can see a Villager taking either option A or B as well. It's very natural for a Villager to assume that the other wagon might be Elim. And this would be further heightened by the fact that the person killed suspected them as well.

What has happened a lot recently at my homesite FoL is for Elims to kill the person who is usually trusted with their reads but happens to have them wrong this time. Most Villagers will look at that read list and start killing them off. I don't know if that happens much here. And I'm not sure if I found out yet whether Gears is someone usually considered correct on his reads.

[Illwei]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

What has happened a lot recently at my homesite FoL is for Elims to kill the person who is usually trusted with their reads but happens to have them wrong this time. Most Villagers will look at that read list and start killing them off. I don't know if that happens much here. And I'm not sure if I found out yet whether Gears is someone usually considered correct on his reads.

That's...really interesting...

I don't think that...well, I haven't been here all that long, but I don't remember a time that someone died and we just immediately started killing all their Elim reads. You take them into account, but you can't just...blindly start...executing people...like that... 

..."confirmed good does not mean confirmed right" or something like that?

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Definitely option B and just allow the Villagers to lynch their own. As far as placing a vote, if most people voted, then it would stick out to not vote, so you probably have to choose one while still protesting about not liking either. But if a lot of people haven't voted, then just skip voting also.

Reasoning the kill doesn't give us much info is something both Villager and Elim might say. And I can see a Villager taking either option A or B as well. It's very natural for a Villager to assume that the other wagon might be Elim. And this would be further heightened by the fact that the person killed suspected them as well.

What has happened a lot recently at my homesite FoL is for Elims to kill the person who is usually trusted with their reads but happens to have them wrong this time. Most Villagers will look at that read list and start killing them off. I don't know if that happens much here. And I'm not sure if I found out yet whether Gears is someone usually considered correct on his reads.

Essentially, I find it too contradictory and coincidental that Elandera was unwilling to vote Elkanah D1, but after a night kill that barely incriminates him, immediately votes for Elkanah today. While her first post this round could come from a villager mindset, it feels too convenient.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Amanuensis

[Illwei]

Hm. My thoughts originally were that I didn't like that Elandera basically explained killing Elk as if it were for information instead of a suspicion imo.

I just tried to look through and find another Elim!Elandera game and all I found was LG63 so far, and...I mean...I don't know what I was trying to look for at this point. something to tell me anything about how elandera is as an Elim, of course, but in the only game I was in with elandera before I think...I think I killed her off D1. so I'd have to look back at a village game or two first....I- ... I should probably go to sleep. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Illwei