Long Game 71: A Cosmere Odyssey

[|TJ|]

Since Mistborn is limited to one kill per game, what are your (as in everyone) thoughts the possibility of an elim Mistborn?

[---]

8 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Since Mistborn is limited to one kill per game, what are your (as in everyone) thoughts the possibility of an elim Mistborn?

I'd like to see what Aman says first. 

He had been claiming Mistborn, and polling people for who they might want killed. I at first thought it was some form of a fish or something, but then Turtle died. I don't know why the Elims would try and Kill turtle, but then again they did try and kill me the night before. It also wouldn't make sense for someone to...not protect turtle...unless..they for some reason decided to protect Experience, who for some reason thought he would need protection? anyways I also don't see why the Mistborn would try and waste their kill on someone who was going to probably be protected. I- agh. 17 people left in the game, no? no elims dead yet so maybe 10-6-1. with how many at least partial inactives we have, it might be pretty easy to end up 

Also, I have a question that is definitely less relevant now but I sill want to ask: Did anyone else think Turtle was a Hemalurgist at the end/middle of day 1, or was I the only one? because I refuse to believe that no one else was guessing that too. 

[Condensation]

I figured it was probably pretty likely that she was a Hemalurgist, but I thought that she was the Elim Hemalurgist.

[---]

Ah, yes. another thing.

There probably is a Elim hemalurgist, based on me thinking that's why gears might have been killed (If i was even given reliable information), but while 2/6 or 2/6 might be better than ...6/23, it's only slightly better than 6/19, and 1/6 isn't better than that either.
I guess there could theoretically be 3 Elim Hemalurgists, maybe even the last 4 are all elims, who knows, but killing someone who isn't a hemalurgist will probably have a better chance of catching an Elim. guessing how many/if there are Elim hemalurgists is basically all guesswork, and guessing the number of elims isn't as guess-y. now technically it's 2/4 or 1/4 chance for Elim Hemalurgists at best guess but I still stand by that voting out/NKing anyone who can be backed up as a Hemalurgist isn't a good idea at all. too late for the NK part now...but still.

Again, I don't know anything about statistics or anything- so-

13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

it fits with that for the feruchemist that used their role last cycle to not be elim (why risk a vote like that and then save the player that your team knows to be a village hemalurgist?

Do you not think that Devotary was the one who saves Turtle?

 

 

In the case of wrong information, illwei is exempt from all blame on the grounds of math isnt real and i dont do it

Edited November 1, 2020 by Illwei

[|TJ|]

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

but while 2/6 or 2/6 might be better than ...6/23, it's only slightly better than 6/19, and 1/6 isn't better than that either.

What is this? Please explain. xD

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Do you not think that Devotary was the one who saves lotus?

You mean Turtle right? 

38 minutes ago, Condensation said:

I figured it was probably pretty likely that she was a Hemalurgist, but I thought that she was the Elim Hemalurgist.

You thought she was HI...

[---]

2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

What is this? Please explain. xD

You mean Turtle right? 

You thought she was HI...

Sorry. Basically no one should be specifically targeting a known Hemalurgist because they think that theyre the "Elim Hemalurgist", as there is no guarantee that there even is one. Yup

Yes. Turtle. I keep doing that

Elim hemalurgist isnt HI?? is there a pm message between you two that im missing?

[+Whysper]

Two Feruchemists claimed to me last night, Devotary and another I'll call AnonFeru. I'll first go through what info I got from them in their PMs, then later I'll go through recent posts and comment.

Devotary

Devotary was responding to my post about the vote manipulation to save Turtle. I had said that if a Village Feru had been responsible for saving Turtle, we needed to know that info and the reason why the Feru thought Turtle was a Villager. Devotary had planned to make a statement in the thread but was relaying the info to me in case they were killed, which unfortunately they were. He hadn't actually claimed that he was Hema as well.

Devotary said they saved Turtle because she had a confirmed Hemu claim. They also mentioned Illwei supporting Turtle by suggesting that people voting on Turtle hadn't seen what she was putting in the Hema doc. Devotary also had suspicions towards Reading from D2 and was hoping to find an Elim there before considering killing a known Hema (Turtle). So Devotary had moved Experience's vote from Turtle to Reading. On D1, he had also tried to move Ventyl's vote to himself, but this was cancelled by AnonFeru's vote manipulation.

AnonFeru

AnonFeru told me that on D1 when the vote was Ventyl 4-4 Elkanah, they attempted to cancel Ventyl's vote on Elkanah. They weren't convinced by the reasoning to lynch Elkanah and preferred that the lynch be Ventyl. The host feedback said that the vote manipulation failed due to vote manipulation by another Feru. AnonFeru was convinced that this was done by an Elim Feru to save Elkanah or implicate him. They were also assuming that since we already had 5 Village Regular flips, there probably weren't 2 Village Ferus. This led to the thought that Turtle didn't look good since it appeared that an Elim Feru saved her. But since we now know the flips for both Devotary and Turtle, these guesses are moot.

[+Whysper]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Right now I'm going to assume that Aman took matters into his own hands and decided to kill Turtle during the night. If so, why? it's not in village's interest to kill a claimed hemalurgist at night at all Imo.  I know, I think, Devotary? mentioned a Mistborn Killing Turtle. I still don't think.... What I do think, is that it's in village's best interest to know who Told Aman that Turtle would be a good Mistborn kill, because I know I didn't.

Yeah, we'll need to wait for Aman to speak up on this. However, I'll admit that at the time he was asking me about who to kill, I told him that Turtle was the one I was most suspicious about. Others may have said this as well since Turtle was indeed under suspicion for awhile.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

There are also allegedly two Feruchemists. I am of the opinion right now that neither of them are Elims.

Well, we already know about Devotary since they flipped. And I'm pretty sure AnonFeru is Villager as well.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

There are also allegedly two Elantrians but my question is why everyone's favorite Surgebinder was going about claiming Elantrian?

Okay, not sure if I missed where you talked about this earlier, or if this is the first time you are revealing this info.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Information about what? the three people that they PM'd with? Info about their/Elk's relationship, which was the original reason you voted on them? Trying to daykill a almost confirmed Hemalurgist is basically poinless imo, as I thought I said earlier. If they're an Elim then they won't be NK'd, and most likely the Elims would try and go for a Hemalurgist above most other people. 

Ash also calls out Turtle for asking "what do you gain if I flip vil?" because that's a weird thing to say. the thing is, it shouldn't have been avoided like Ash avoided it because Ash's reason for voting Turtle was for info. I am 90% against Info kills on anything but D1 already, and then Ash refusing to think about what info is gained if someone they want to kill, a Hemalurgist, Doesn't flip Elim. you both lose info and a Hemalurgist. 

You reasoning against Ash is sound. I don't think I've seen posts towards EoD yet, so I'll go review them afterwards.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Short list (no reasonings.)

Thanks for your read list. I agree there are a lot of Elim and Mild Elim candidates at this point. I would say TJ seems Villager to me. Aman I would give Mild Villager, though I do want to hear about what happened with the night kills.

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

The main reason I stuck on Turtle was less information and more that I thought that Reading was also a Hemalurgist. That would have explained the “doc slip”. Also, he and Turtle were going back and forth a bit about how many Hemalurgists there were, and Reading was very underguessing the actual number. That can be an Elim tell to over/under “estimate” the number of Elims, and I figured it could be a similar tell to Hemalurgist.

Hmmm, thanks for explaining. Though not sure I take this as good reasoning. I wouldn't think Reading would purposely give a lower number of Hemalurgists as false info to us if they were a Villager. If anything, he would just not talk about it.

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

My only real village reads are probably Aman (for the Mistborn Turtle thing), Illwei (for getting attacked), and Whysper (for being active and sensible). I'd probably add any living feruchemist to this list as well, and maybe TJ. Top suspicions of mine are Supreme, Ash, and Lotus, in that order.

Your reads seem reasonable. How do you feel about Condensation and Elkanah? Both have been involved in the thread quite a bit and under suspicion at times.

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Supreme: he roleclaimed to me, good enough for now for me to clear him.

Okay, since I consider you Villager, I'll take your word on this for now.

P.S. I was trying to finish and post this earlier, but then had to take care of other things. Posting this now and I'll continue with further comments in another post later.

[Araris Valerian]

My tentative read on Elkanah is village. He has been active a lot in the QF since that game started, but didn’t vote in this game last cycle. That suggests he’s not elim to me.

Condensation falls more on the elim spectrum of things, after Lotus on my list I think. Better activity but a similar vote last cycle.

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

Do you not think that Devotary was the one who saves lotus?

Oh yeah. I think that part of my post was something I’d been thinking of last night, but never got around to posting. 

[Condensation]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

What is this? Please explain. xD

You mean Turtle right? 

You thought she was HI...

I thought that Illwei was the HI, not eltruT. That was because of some incorrect information I was using, I no longer think that.

[Ashbringer]

Did Aman actually claim Mistborn, or just that he was gathering information for a Mistborn to possibly use?

[---]

As far as i am aware, he claimed. 

[Araris Valerian]

Aman never claimed to me (amazing, isn’t it, a PM with no role claims), but he did ask me who I would kill if I could. I’m not too sure that it matters who the Mistborn is, since they already used up their kill. Said person couldn’t prove their role without getting confirmation from a Kandra.

Edit: C’mon everyone, we’re basically halfway through the cycle, and only Illwei and I have voted. We had plenty of votes last cycle, so where’d everyone go?

Edited November 1, 2020 by Araris Valerian

[---]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m not too sure that it matters who the Mistborn is, since they already used up their kill. Said person couldn’t prove their role without getting confirmation from a Kandra

I would like someone to claim the kill. It might not be Aman. Aman threatened to kill someone N1- which is technically a roleclaim. not sure I believe it. 

[Condensation]

I mean, I'd claim it but it's not me.

[Vapor]

Connie, you're confusing me. You claim village, say you're not mistborn, but you said stuff in PMs and so have others that make me think you're lying. I'd blame that on the fact that you're new, but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad. I... don't know.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad.

This is new

Connie, you've second hand played other SE games? or other general games?

[Condensation]

1 minute ago, Vapor said:

Connie, you're confusing me. You claim village, say you're not mistborn, but you said stuff in PMs and so have others that make me think you're lying. I'd blame that on the fact that you're new, but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad. I... don't know.

This couldn't have happened on a PM? Okay. What stuff did I say that made you think I was lying? And lying about what?

Oh... thanks! I haven't been feeling good at analysing.

I've helped both Mist and Vapor seem unsuspicious and develop plans in previous SE games, in those cases I never looked on the thread and gave my general opinion. I've never helped with analysing or voting, just the way they talk and such. Apparently I'm good at it!

[+Lotus]

...i don’t know what to think

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I would like someone to claim the kill. It might not be Aman. Aman threatened to kill someone N1- which is technically a roleclaim. not sure I believe it. 

If it was me, I wouldn’t claim. No reason to give free info to the elims.

[---]

1 hour ago, Condensation said:

I've helped both Mist and Vapor seem unsuspicious and develop plans in previous SE games, in those cases I never looked on the thread and gave my general opinion. I've never helped with analysing or voting, just the way they talk and such. Apparently I'm good at it!

See this definitely has to change how I look at things.

@Lotus what do you mean? do you have anything to say at all? a small list of reads even?

[danex]

Mmmmmmm this is tricky, but I think I’m most suspicious of Condensation right now. Too many small things that don’t make sense. 

2 hours ago, Vapor said:

Connie, you're confusing me. You claim village, say you're not mistborn, but you said stuff in PMs and so have others that make me think you're lying. I'd blame that on the fact that you're new, but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad. I... don't know.

Basically this ^

7 hours ago, Condensation said:

I thought that Illwei was the HI, not eltruT. That was because of some incorrect information I was using, I no longer think that.

Also this ^

and other similar things. Connie is just sending me very sneaky vibes, too many small things aren’t adding up. 

[Flyingbooks]

I have a big essay due tomorrow, so I don't really have time to participate.

[Condensation]

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

See this definitely has to change how I look at things.

@Lotus what do you mean? do you have anything to say at all? a small list of reads even?

Really? I didn't think it was that big of a deal.

3 hours ago, Danex said:

Mmmmmmm this is tricky, but I think I’m most suspicious of Condensation right now. Too many small things that don’t make sense. 

Basically this ^

Also this ^

and other similar things. Connie is just sending me very sneaky vibes, too many small things aren’t adding up. 

Oh... shoot. So, you think I'm being confusing and sneaky. Would you mind naming some of the small things?

[+Whysper]

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'd like to see what Aman says first

21 hours ago, Illwei said:

He had been claiming Mistborn, and polling people for who they might want killed.

10 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Did Aman actually claim Mistborn, or just that he was gathering information for a Mistborn to possibly use?

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

As far as i am aware, he claimed.

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Aman never claimed to me (amazing, isn’t it, a PM with no role claims), but he did ask me who I would kill if I could.

Yeah, Aman asked me the question about who a Mistborn should kill, but he never actually claimed he himself was Mistborn.

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m not too sure that it matters who the Mistborn is, since they already used up their kill.

Right, at this point, I think the Mistborn should go ahead and claim the kill so that we know what happened.

5 hours ago, Vapor said:

Connie, you're confusing me. You claim village, say you're not mistborn, but you said stuff in PMs and so have others that make me think you're lying. I'd blame that on the fact that you're new, but you seem pretty good at analyzing and have helped me with other games so I don't think you're that bad. I... don't know.

5 hours ago, Condensation said:

This couldn't have happened on a PM? Okay. What stuff did I say that made you think I was lying? And lying about what?

5 hours ago, Condensation said:

I've helped both Mist and Vapor seem unsuspicious and develop plans in previous SE games, in those cases I never looked on the thread and gave my general opinion. I've never helped with analysing or voting, just the way they talk and such. Apparently I'm good at it!

Oh, this is interesting. Vapor, do you have more to say on this? What stuff do you think doesn't quite add up?

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

If it was me, I wouldn’t claim. No reason to give free info to the elims.

But the info is useless to Elims at this point (the Mistborn is powerless now) and helpful to Village (to figure out exactly what happened).

3 hours ago, Danex said:

Mmmmmmm this is tricky, but I think I’m most suspicious of Condensation right now. Too many small things that don’t make sense.

I'm kind of feeling the same way. Trying to decide whether Ash or Condensation is more suspicious. Things about Condensation have been bothering me the whole game, so I think I'll place my vote there.

Condensation