Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Huh? I don't ever recall calling you 'crazy'. Sorry if I seemed to imply it. Yes, I did indeed mean you were being your usual chaotic self. 

You said that I was being weird with the honorblades, and that you were disregarding what I was saying as just me being weird. That's not necessarily a good thing to do, as I WAS making a valid point there, you just got too caught up on the strange part to see it

Also, when you said me jumping on players was NAI for me, note that both the MR and LG in which I did that I was evil. So that might actually be an elim tell, or it could be my playstyle. You decide.

[Elbereth she/her]

Okay, responses from this thread and then I'm going to go do other stuff for a bit! Definitely going to try to read through the rest of D1 (i.e. everything before my last post, since I just read through and responded to everything after), but... later. I've got other stuff to do.  

Oh, a couple other notes from the last bit of D1 that weren't worth quoting: I'm liking Lahilt and Truthwatcher right now, mostly tone based. I think Gears looks pretty good for the end of day as well. And I would really, really love to know TJ's alignment because almost all of the analysis of D1 hinges on whether it was elim/elim or not. >>

4 hours ago, Gears said:

Ah. Thank you for clarifying. However, as you have claimed to be a Bondsmith and are completely out of Stormlight, you are now extremely vulnerable to elim kills. If anyone wants to protect TJ, go ahead. This makes me trust TJ a little more, since if TJ and Striker were elims, TJ would probably only use one charge of Stormlight to save himself [and keep an elim Knight in play]. As such, I will not vote for TJ. @Ventyl, squire someone tonight.

Agreed on this point. 

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I'll explain why I role-claimed. Since the elims will notice the two votes missing, and know that they didn't do it, and they would have seen me talking about claiming hypothetically, they will put two and two together to deduce I'm KR. And they knew I was under too much suspicion for another village vote manip to have saved me. Meaning I would be the likely target for elim kill today. Hence I'm giving you the info as well, hoping I could ask one of the village protect roles to protect me if they feel I'm innocent. Even if they don't actually protect me, this puts enough doubt in elims mind that they might not waste their kill on me as there's a chance that I might be protected. 

Disagreed here.  You were under suspicion from some people, but defended by others and some people gave no opinion either way. I certainly wouldn't have used vote manip to save you, but I would not have been that surprised if another villager did. (Two would be a stretch, though.) 

3 hours ago, Gears said:

The following is an analysis of the votes on Striker:

Sart: Disliked the distracting discussion concerning mechanics.

TJ: Self-preservation.

Joe: Didn't want to vote TJ.

Matrim: Didn't want to vote TJ.

The following is an analysis of the votes on TJ:

Araris: Found TJ more suspicious than Ventyl [at the time, Striker was not a contender for the lynch

Elbereth: Found TJ the most suspicious out of the contenders for the lynch at the time [Ventyl, Striker, Gears, TJ]. Notably, El read Striker as very mild village.

Eternum: Didn't like TJ's retraction off of Ashbringer.

Striker: Self-preservation and didn't like TJ's votehopping.

^ see why I said how much depends on TJ's flip?

TJ also read Striker as very mild village, I'll note.  But yes, I did, and had I been around probably would've argued against Striker dying. 

Anyway, this is a useful list, though I also kind of want to see a vote history. From my recollection, Sart's vote on Striker was fairly early, and the other three were all pretty late in the cycle? Whereas the first three votes on TJ were relatively stable / on him for a long time, and only Striker's vote joined near the end. 

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Wow, go to sleep and the world up and changes on you. I honestly didn’t think the lynch on Striker would stick, since half the votes on him at the time were caused by confusion.

Probably the two strongest village reads I get here are Sart and Joe. I mentioned during the day that I thought the tone of Sart’s post where he voted Striker didn’t seem like distancing (too aggressive). I’d probably soft-clear TJ as well, for a couple of reasons. For one, the double vote manip would seem excessive if he was elim, and a E/E lynch train is very unlikely for D1.

Probably my two strongest (still not super strong) elim reads are Gears and Truthwatcher. Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which is a way to stay neutral. Easy place to hide as an elim. Truthwatcher didn’t participate in the lynch, and was against either lynch, but also didn’t vote Ventyl or me, the two people that they expressed a willingness to lynch. Again, it seems like an elim trying to remain neutral. I also continue to have a mild elim read on Devotary, due to the positive interaction with Striker and overall neutrality.

I’d like to point out that elims can (and tend to, in my experience) ask rule questions that may incriminate them either in the elim doc or their PM. So I’d be careful in the future about thinking of this as AI.

Also, for everyone hesitant about D1 lynches, here’s a bit of proof that they aren’t totally useless .

Agreed on the village reads here; I'm going to have to go back and look but I think Sart's vote was early enough that that kind of pressure on a fellow teammate would be risky. Mostly agreed on the double vote manip soft clear as well, as far as it goes. 

Disagree on those elim reads, though - yes, Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which can be neutral. But unless you think TJ is evil, that tie was between an elim and a villager, which seems... much less likely for an elim to try to make happen. 
I'd like to see a vote from Truthwatcher this cycle, but his neutrality reads more to me like new player uncertainty (especially given what I remember seeing of them in the QF). 

And yeah, I never got around to pointing it out, but TJ's elim read on Striker for that question probably felt so flimsy to me in part because if it were actually a suspicious question there'd be a very easy alternative for elim!Striker. 

 

General conclusions: I don't know where I'm leaning on TJ and I'd really love to see him flip; village reads on Mage, Joe, Sart, Lahilt, Truthwatcher, Gears, Ventyl, Eternum (in no particular order, and I might be forgetting people). Less sure about Matrim now, he's probably in the neutral category. I'm... hm. I'm still very confused about TJ, but I don't think I'd vote for him for quite a while yet. I'm happy enough with that. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

@Elbereth you forgot me

[Eternum he/him]

So, I haven't been able to get on for most of today and it's midnight, so expect a post from me in the morning cause I need my sleep

Regardless, this is a fantastic start. I.. can't really say much of value until I do a full reread of the thread, so this is just here to say that I still exist.

[Gears]

The vote history of D1. Please note that I might have missed a retraction as green looks nearly black to my eyes.

El votes TJ Shade with no reasoning.

Ventyl votes Joe with a poke.

Araris votes Ventyl with no reasoning.

El retracts TJ and votes Ventyl because of a fixation on roles.

El retracts Ventyl and votes Matrim because Matrim repeated what El said.

Striker votes Gears because of Gears' paranoia.

Orlok votes Gears because of pre-game analysis.

Gears votes El because of pressure from El and Orlok.

Sart votes Striker because of Striker's focus on roles.

Matrim votes Striker because Sart makes sense.

TJ votes Ash for approximating the exact player number

Ventyl retracts Joe because that lynch will go nowhere.

Ventyl votes TJ Shade for being frustrated about their claim.

Eternum votes Ventyl for being confusing.

TJ retracts Ash because they overthought it.

El votes TJ because she finds TJ most suspicious.

Matrim retracts Striker because that lynch isn't going anywhere [ironic in hindsight]

Gears votes Striker because Striker is the most suspicious.

Araris retracts Ventyl and votes Devotary because they find staying neutral inherently elimy

Eternum retracts Ventyl and votes TJ because they trust Ventyl and TJ's retraction seems odd.

Pyro votes Ventyl because Ventyl's behavior is similar to prior elim games

Pyro retracts Ventyl because of the plan.

Matrim votes Striker because of their vote on Gears.

Araris retracts Devotary and votes TJ, citing previous reasoning [that I can't find]

TJ votes Gears for self-preservation.

TJ retracts Gears and votes Striker for self-preservation.

Lahlit votes Ventyl because they are suspicious.

TJ retracts Striker and votes Ventyl.

Ventyl retracts TJ and votes Joe because there is framing potential.

Striker retracts Gears and votes TJ for self-preservation.

TJ retracts Ventyl and votes Striker for self-preservation.

Gears retracts Striker to maintain the tie.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well. Elim!Striker’s down, TJ’s a Bondsmith and probably village and out of Stormlight.

Based on this, I think Joe and TJ are soft-cleared. Sart... maybe? D1 distancing is a fairly common thing, although I can hardly condemn someone for voting on an Elim...

Both votes that TJ claims to have used his abilities on were canceled, not moved, meaning either any two of Windrunner/Bondsmith/Stoneward did this (and likely coordinated), or TJ’s telling the truth with using both Bondsmith powers.

Especially since Striker flipped Elim, I’m more inclined to believe the second, but I don’t think we should full clear TJ yet, as I could see the Elims bussing a roleless to save a Radiant. (And I kinda would love to see what an Evil!Bondsmith would be like in general...)

Ventyl, you still need to squire tonight I think. Don’t say who you’re targeting, but don’t pick anyone you think is likely a Diagrammist, Radiant, or possible inactive. I’m a little worried by you pushing a majority of Radiants, as it sets up things that I don’t like the sound of. Especially with Squiring.

Gears (et all) - just a question, but is there a significant difference in the vote analysis between a “poke vote” and a “vote with no reasoning”?

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Gears (et all) - just a question, but is there a significant difference in the vote analysis between a “poke vote” and a “vote with no reasoning”?

The poke vote is one that is explicitly stated to be a poke placed early in the turn. A vote with no reasoning is one that is simply placed with no words to justify. [Like Elbereth's vote on TJ to start. It was just placed. No reasoning, no stating it was a poke, nothing]

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

el powerwolfing. want to see her analysis of me. used to be a tell of hers that shed ignore me.

[Magestar he/him]

Well.  Wow.    That was lucky.  I still don't think that lynch made any sense, but D1 lynches rarely do, I suppose.

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

And I would really, really love to know TJ's alignment because almost all of the analysis of D1 hinges on whether it was elim/elim or not. >>

I feel similarly.  I just did a skim of the cycle, but from what I could tell, the TJ lynch and the Striker lynch sprung up largely separately.  The lynch on Ventyl also sprang up pretty quickly.  I largely put my vote on Ventyl to see what TJ would do, and if they'd follow their suspicions or self-preservation...  I'd probably be more suspicious of TJ if they hadn't thrown their vote on Striker at the end?  But that could also have been bussing.  It certainly wasn't necessary, given that TJ apparently could cancel two votes on themself.  Idk.  The likelihood of the village accidentally almost lynching two Elims seems low, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that TJ is soft-cleared.

That's all I've got at the moment.  Unfortunately I'll be busy all tomorrow so I won't be able to post much.  I should be able to be fairly active next day cycle though, so I'll try to put together my thoughts and get some reads out then.

[Gears]

If we have no suspicions by the end of D2, TJ would be an acceptable lynch, especially considering that to keep him alive until the next highstorm, we will need 3 charges of precious Stormlight. However, I am loath to lynch a confirmed Knight Radiant when there are alternative lynch candidates, such as Ventyl.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

Disagree on those elim reads, though - yes, Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which can be neutral. But unless you think TJ is evil, that tie was between an elim and a villager, which seems... much less likely for an elim to try to make happen. 
I'd like to see a vote from Truthwatcher this cycle, but his neutrality reads more to me like new player uncertainty (especially given what I remember seeing of them in the QF). 

You may be right about Truthwatcher. But I also think new player hesitancy could be compounded by having a teammate up for the lynch. I agree that I’d like to see a vote and some analysis before I make a stronger read.

Gears said he wanted a tie, but that could just have been an excuse to retract from Striker. Also, I think that given the attention that had been drawn to Striker, we likely would have lynched him in the next couple of cycles regardless (For comparison, Gears has already suggested lynching Ventyl and TJ, the other two people we focused on). So this may have been an attempt at distancing as well.

@Elbereth Who are your elim reads? You have a lot of people as village, and TJ as neutral, but that doesn’t really help with our next lynch (although I’m fine if you don’t want to share until the day comes around).

[Gears]

41 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Gears said he wanted a tie, but that could just have been an excuse to retract from Striker. Also, I think that given the attention that had been drawn to Striker, we likely would have lynched him in the next couple of cycles regardless (For comparison, Gears has already suggested lynching Ventyl and TJ, the other two people we focused on). So this may have been an attempt at distancing as well.

Striker and TJ appeared equally suspicious, and I wanted a tie. However, nothing I say can convince you of this point as I could simply be engaging in the art of lying, and so I will simply acknowledge your suspicions and ask if there is a way I could clear my good name.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

But if two people are equally suspicious, why would you want to leave the lynch up to possibly elim vote manip?

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

But if two people are equally suspicious, why would you want to leave the lynch up to possibly elim vote manip?

Through analysing the vote manipulation, we gain information. If I picked one of the two at random to lynch and that person was a villager, we would learn nothing. For instance, we learned that the elim team is unable or unwilling to vanish two votes or redirect a vote. 

[Frozen Mint she/her]

Given Sart's somewhat aggressive vote for Striker and Striker flipped elim, I'm confident they're village.

2 hours ago, Gears said:

Matrim retracts Striker because that lynch isn't going anywhere [ironic in hindsight]

Gears votes Striker because Striker is the most suspicious.

Araris retracts Ventyl and votes Devotary because they find staying neutral inherently elimy

Eternum retracts Ventyl and votes TJ because they trust Ventyl and TJ's retraction seems odd.

Pyro votes Ventyl because Ventyl's behavior is similar to prior elim games

Pyro retracts Ventyl because of the plan.

Matrim votes Striker because of their vote on Gears.

I have a stronger village read on Matrim now as well since they voted for Striker twice (they retracted once but voted on Striker again once Striker had 2 votes against him, and he'd be more likely to be successfully lynched). I suppose elim!Matrim might have voted for Striker if they were protecting TJ. So in that scenario TJ would be an elim and a radiant (which is why their survival would be higher priority than Striker). But I feel like the elims could have tried to shift the vote onto a villager if that was the case. Unless the majority of D1 discussion somehow revolved on the actual elims, which would be some crazy luck. 

(Also, highly appreciate the summary Gears!)

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

I largely put my vote on Ventyl to see what TJ would do, and if they'd follow their suspicions or self-preservation...

Is this AI? Is there anyone who would've vote out of self-preservation?

 

I'm also going to assume that at least one elim voted on not Striker (so we have Araris, El, Eternum, Lahilit, Magestar... and then single votes by Ventyl and Orlok).

___

(I'm not familiar with the setting so my RP might be contradictory? But I did want to RP this game. Looked up the Diagram and honestly have no idea why they wanna kill anyone.)

Lyra pulled a blanket out of sack, her hands trembling.

Stop it now, you have to sleep. We have a long journey ahead of us. But it was no use. She laid on the ground for hours but sleep wouldn't come. Lyra kept envisioning the dead body. When they had started their journey, Lyra felt strangely relieved. She knew the dangers but despite them, she had hope that she and her fellow refugees would all make it by standing together. She stayed neutral when the fighting broke out. Lyra didn't realize it would go so far. 

Even worse, the one who died turned out to be a killer himself. All of them, here so they can reach a safer place. Will they never have peace? Would any of them even make it across the shattered plains alive?

Bleary-eyed, eventually exhaustion took her over and she fell into a deep sleep. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

Well that went better than expected. I agree with what Gears did. Leaving it up to the Elims to vote manip the lynch tells us that they didn't have any active mannipers online at the end.

[Frozen Mint she/her]

14 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well that went better than expected. I agree with what Gears did. Leaving it up to the Elims to vote manip the lynch tells us that they didn't have any active mannipers online at the end.

Or they didn't want to show their hand.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

8 hours ago, Gears said:

Ah. Thank you for clarifying. However, as you have claimed to be a Bondsmith and are completely out of Stormlight, you are now extremely vulnerable to elim kills. If anyone wants to protect TJ, go ahead. This makes me trust TJ a little more, since if TJ and Striker were elims, TJ would probably only use one charge of Stormlight to save himself [and keep an elim Knight in play]. As such, I will not vote for TJ. @Ventyl, squire someone tonight.

I don’t think I should squire actually. You seem quite adamant about having me squire. Is this elim!Gears trying to get a kill on me? Thoughts anyone?

[Gears]

14 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I don’t think I should squire actually. You seem quite adamant about having me squire. Is this elim!Gears trying to get a kill on me? Thoughts anyone?

If you're not going to squire, don't tell the thread. That way, the elims will know and kill you. Just stop telling the thread your plans.

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, Gears said:

If you're not going to squire, don't tell the thread. That way, the elims will know and kill you. Just stop telling the thread your plans.

I’m starting to think it doesn’t matter what he tells us  No one can possibly understand Ventyl.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I’m starting to think it doesn’t matter what he tells us  No one can possibly understand Ventyl.

This is true... hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehhehehehehehehehehehehehehehheheheheheheheh

[Ashbringer he/him]

44 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I don’t think I should squire actually. You seem quite adamant about having me squire. Is this elim!Gears trying to get a kill on me? Thoughts anyone?

Uhh... no. We’re adamant about having you squire because you said you would squire tonight in order to prove yourself as a loyal Radiant. If you really are a Village Radiant, then we need you to Squire someone before the Elims kill you. If you’re not, and are either a Village Roleless or an Elim, then you’ve gotten yourself into this mess and I’m going to get to the bottom of it.

Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest.

The only problem is that “my squiring failed because I hit a Radiant” is both a fairly likely event and an easy excuse... anyone else have any advice on this plan?

Edited July 4, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Uhh... no. We’re adamant about having you squire because you said you would squire tonight in order to prove yourself as a loyal Radiant. If you really are a Village Radiant, then we need you to Squire someone before the Elims kill you. If you’re not, and are either a Village Roleless or an Elim, then you’ve gotten yourself into this mess and I’m going to get to the bottom of it.

Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest.

The only problem is that “my squiring failed because I hit a Radiant” is both a fairly likely event and an easy excuse... anyone else have any advice on this plan?

 

 

I don’t want to squire, because then I can’t save myself... so would someone protect me? Maybe...

[theTruthshaper]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Uhh... no. We’re adamant about having you squire because you said you would squire tonight in order to prove yourself as a loyal Radiant. If you really are a Village Radiant, then we need you to Squire someone before the Elims kill you. If you’re not, and are either a Village Roleless or an Elim, then you’ve gotten yourself into this mess and I’m going to get to the bottom of it.

Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest.

The only problem is that “my squiring failed because I hit a Radiant” is both a fairly likely event and an easy excuse... anyone else have any advice on this plan?

Why do you want to know who the squire is? That seems suspicious. While I agree with the rest of your points about Ventyl, that part is very suspicious.

Ventyl, if you think you can tell us something to show that you are village, consider doing so. One village radiant is already in danger, they are probably pretty limited resource.

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I don’t want to squire, because then I can’t save myself... so would someone protect me? Maybe...

If you’re gonna die anyway might as well give the village an extra surge.

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Uhh... no. We’re adamant about having you squire because you said you would squire tonight in order to prove yourself as a loyal Radiant. If you really are a Village Radiant, then we need you to Squire someone before the Elims kill you. If you’re not, and are either a Village Roleless or an Elim, then you’ve gotten yourself into this mess and I’m going to get to the bottom of it.

Here’s what I propose. Squire tonight, but don’t tell anyone who you’re squiring. The next day, tell us whether the squiring went through, and have the squire (who you can PM with) agree that your squiring succeeded. I think this would work to help clear you, and/or pull a squiring away from the Elims. It would be acting in the Village’s interest.

The only problem is that “my squiring failed because I hit a Radiant” is both a fairly likely event and an easy excuse... anyone else have any advice on this plan?

I don’t see why the person squired needs to verify. That would just tell the elims who the squire is.

Ninja’d by TW who just said the same thing.