Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Elandera she/her]

9 minutes ago, Metabardnition said:

That's right. So right now, we've seen one roleless, one Temptation, one Babaji, and one Vodiyehi all dead, and (probably) one Vashikaran alive and one convert.

Our possibilities for remaining spammers include:

• SookeSiled
• Beirst1928
• Vashikaran
• Convert

Of these, with Meta being roleblocked, we most likely have Vashikaran and a Convert. I don't think there's been any evidence of a Sooke, and Beirst is... well, I don't know. I doubt Beirst is in the game. 

With three four dead spammers, I'd estimate up to 3 2 left (two one OG and a convert). That would have put the original team at 5. If that's the case, I'd expect Sooke to be the final role. If there's only one OG and a convert, then I'd expect that person to be Beirst.

Either way, if someone carries out an attack that is unsuccessful, it's a good place to look for a lynch candidate.

My top suspects, who hopefully I'll be able to analyse after getting sleep today (I think today? I don't know, my days are confused), would include Drought and Snipexe. I'm getting a bad vibe off Fifth again, though. I want to take a look at his posts a little closer to see if there's been a shift that might reflect convert.

Other top candidates for convert I would consider to be Ada and Arand. If anyone has a scan, they might be worthwhile targets.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Elandera
Completely forgot about Guest... sorry! Fixed the numbers in estimations, which makes this post kind of a mess. Sorry!

[Amanuensis he/him]

I honestly think there's been way too many roleclaims already (so please, for the love of God, don't use this as a reason to claim if you haven't already). But more than likely the Spammers have already been collecting this information, so I think I should gather it for us as well.

• Elan - Disciple of Herowannabe
• Drought - ???
• Xino - redirected Lum to Rath?
• Fura - ???
• Meta - ???
• Rand - Band Wagon Leader
• Steel - Multi-Boxer
• Fifth - Roleplayer
• CadCom - Also Roleplayer???
• Lum - Neutral Disciple of Bort?
• Snip - ???
• Rath - Metacognition?
• Araris - ???
• Kidpen - ???
• Aman - Super Active
• Walin - ???

As far as I can tell, the last (original) Spammer should be among Drought, Fura, Meta, Snip, Araris, Kidpen and Walin. Contribution Crusader, if you could take out Drought tonight, that would be great.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Adavantos

[Snipexe he/him]

Can someone link me to the post where Rand claimed Bandwagon Leader? I just want to see how it works, and I think I missed it earlier.

[CadCom he/him]

4 hours ago, Metabardnition said:

That's... what?

@Cadmium Compounder... Is this your doing?

As has been discussed, I had nothing to do with this. This morning when I got to my computer the first thing I saw was my new role information, which made me only slightly disappointed. Then I went back and caught up on last night before I looked at this morning's posts. When I saw that Alv had stated that he would sway the vote to me, I was a bit astounded that I was still alive, Then I moved over to today's thread, and I see that I am still alive because Alv was indeed a spammer. 

With Alv knowing I had the ability to kill someone if the lynch had gone to me, he could have easily swayed it last minute, But instead he went for the gambit. Perhaps that was because he might have known that if he had swayed it, he would have been my kill, or perhaps he was protecting one of the other two who voted on me. 

Or perhaps it was a combination of the two. Maybe he knew that if he had redirected towards me, then by sheer chance alone, it would have been at least 33% maybe even 66%(or even 100%) chance that an eliminator was killed, which would not have been productive. 

On the contrary, he had only a 25% chance of being killed this way, and if he wasn't killed, then his guess at me would have been a 1/3 shot of being correct. Then if one of the two others that voted on me was an elim, then I would have had a 1/2 chance of hitting an elim. 1/3*1/2=1/6 so 25% plus about 17% comes out to 42% (I've taken stats, and I realize all the steps that I may have skipped in order to find out if that number would be correct if it's all by chance. But it's been long enough since I took stats, that I don't remember what steps those are.) I'm certain that there's some other factor that's in there that would reduce it to a lower chance somewhere, but I do not know where. 

I think I'm just rambling now, as I don't know where I wanted to go with these numbers any more, so let's try a different route. 

1 hour ago, Adavantos said:

I honestly think there's been way too many roleclaims already (so please, for the love of God, don't use this as a reason to claim if you haven't already). But more than likely the Spammers have already been collecting this information, so I think I should gather it for us as well.

• Xino - redirected Lum to Rath?

As far as I can tell, the last (original) Spammer should be among Drought, Fura, Meta, Snip, Araris, Kidpen and Walin. Contribution Crusader, if you could take out Drought tonight, that would be great.

-Xino - redirected lum to rath? 

Is there a confirmation of this, or a claim of this, because I don't remember it at all. 

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, Snipexe said:

Can someone link me to the post where Rand claimed Bandwagon Leader? I just want to see how it works, and I think I missed it earlier.

If I vote on someone that had not votes on them before my vote, I add two more votes.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

 

-Xino - redirected lum to rath? 

Is there a confirmation of this, or a claim of this, because I don't remember it at all. 

The confirmation we have is that no one counterclaimed. It could have been that mailliw got converted and it was a ruse to help Xinoeph, but I don't think that's very likely.

[Lumgol she/her]

So @Elandera are you going to convert CadCom then? Thanks! I'll convert someone else.

@|247|-|, it would be super helpful if you could convert someone as well but if you have an important scan to make that's fine.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Holy crap we lynched another one?! 3 perfect lynches in a row? Dang! 

Also, I told you guys I wanted to keep an Alvbot. I’m disappointed in you guys. It would have been a fun SE pet. 

[CadCom he/him]

I think this begs the question. Are the eliminators breaking joes meta game?

Is that why he went AWOL?

Edited March 29, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Steeldancer he/him]

9 hours ago, Seventh Saint said:

Yes, I knew my new role beginning N2, and carried it through D3. I was a Mastrell, from LG29, which obfuscated scans. Right now I have the Coinshot 2 role from LG41 (another of Joe’s games actually) and the terminology has been modified for this game; I can protect myself from all actions targeting me, except Babaji’s kill or alignment scans. 

Hey! Coinshot two! That’s a fun role. 

Just not as fun as being the mistborn. 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

@Mailliw772, I just asked for clarification on whether we're restricted to only one action.  Aside, what information do you have about my role that makes you assume I have a scan this weekend?

[Droughtbringer]

4 hours ago, Adavantos said:

I honestly think there's been way too many roleclaims already (so please, for the love of God, don't use this as a reason to claim if you haven't already). But more than likely the Spammers have already been collecting this information, so I think I should gather it for us as well.

• Elan - Disciple of Herowannabe
• Drought - ???
• Xino - redirected Lum to Rath?
• Fura - ???
• Meta - ???
• Rand - Band Wagon Leader
• Steel - Multi-Boxer
• Fifth - Roleplayer
• CadCom - Also Roleplayer???
• Lum - Neutral Disciple of Bort?
• Snip - ???
• Rath - Metacognition?
• Araris - ???
• Kidpen - ???
• Aman - Super Active
• Walin - ???

I saw a list of roles and almost claimed before reading the entire post. That would have been awkward.

48 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

@Mailliw772, I just asked for clarification on whether we're restricted to only one action.  Aside, what information do you have about my role that makes you assume I have a scan this weekend?

I, at the least, am highly confused by your role, and would probably just keep pinging you seeing if you did get to scan anything during the most recent, cycle, better safe than sorry.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

3 minutes ago, May I suggest The Only Joe said:

I, at the least, am highly confused by your role, and would probably just keep pinging you seeing if you did get to scan anything during the most recent, cycle, better safe than sorry.

Once the game is complete and you see the full description of my role, you'll see that I do not have the same ability every night and that it made sense to not explain it in full.

As it so happens, I did end up with a scan tonight.  At this point, I plan on using the scan and have gotten confirmation that the game only allows for one action per night, so I will not be converting anyone to the troll team unfortunately (which may not be the best idea, but I think the scan here is more important...since it could cause me to lose since it seems like we have to be getting close to running out of spammers)

[Furamirionind]

As for people, someone scanning Ada would be useful. Itiah and CadCom are also good convert targets.  As to who the (Possibly last) starting elim is, I would start by looking closer at Bard and Araris.  My view on Bard's playstyle is a little skewed, as the last time either of us were evil, we were together.

I will be pretty much gone over the next 48-72 hours due to another robotics competition.  After that, PNW Championships is April 3rd-6th, so I will likely be minimally active during that time as well.  Normally I would stay up until 1-2am to have time for this, however as I have been picked as my team's driver, I really do need to get sleep. : /

Ninja'd

10 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

As it so happens, I did end up with a scan tonight.  At this point, I plan on using the scan and have gotten confirmation that the game only allows for one action per night, so I will not be converting anyone to the troll team unfortunately (which may not be the best idea, but I think the scan here is more important...since it could cause me to lose since it seems like we have to be getting close to running out of spammers)

Ha! Here I was, trying to compose a complicated post trying to convince a convert of Maill to say if they were trolls, and now I get the pleasure of scrapping the post.  This is quite interesting... The Trolls seem to have been given a lot of power to start the game.

So every convert of Maill has the convert ability... Well Elandera had to be the first convert, as she spoke up for Maill last week if I remember correctly... That still leaves some interesting cases to happen N2 due to having 2 converts, however as I got the claim D1, that still doesn't work.  Obviously they weren't converted.

I think they claimed in-thread, but I don't have time to double check, so I am not saying their name just in case. @Adavantos do you have any more info on this than I do?
Edit:

Due to being claimed to D1, either they were trying to find each other, or they don't have a wincon counter to the village... However, I don't believe the claim that it doesn't end the game at this moment.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Lumgol she/her]

7 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

As it so happens, I did end up with a scan tonight.  At this point, I plan on using the scan and have gotten confirmation that the game only allows for one action per night, so I will not be converting anyone to the troll team unfortunately (which may not be the best idea, but I think the scan here is more important...since it could cause me to lose since it seems like we have to be getting close to running out of spammers)

No worries. We're already making (hopefully) 2 conversions tonight. Rath, I'm really curious about your role, by the way.

And yes @Furamirionind, Elandera was my first convert. And, I guess calling us a troll team is pretty accurate all things considered  

[Araris Valerian he/him]

10 hours ago, Adavantos said:

Also this might sound a bit unwise, considering I voted for Alv myself, but I'm hesitant to clear Araris for that. He has kind of been tunneling on Alv the whole game for reasons I don't really understand, which usually makes me think "elim distancing".

@Araris Valerian I would love to see you post more. We miss you and your grumpy ways

Thanks . I didn't have great reasoning for Alv, but I didn't have much on anyone. I wouldn't necessarily say I was tunneling, since I was definitely at least looking for other people to place my vote on.

Walin is almost certainly not an original elim, although he may have been put in as a convert or something.

[Elandera she/her]

@Mailliw772, yes, that's my planned conversion target. 

52 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Here I was, trying to compose a complicated post trying to convince a convert of Maill to say if they were trolls, and now I get the pleasure of scrapping the post.  This is quite interesting... The Trolls seem to have been given a lot of power to start the game.

We're not called Trolls, but it is just a very troll-ish role. I blame Joe. 

Also, it's not really a lot of power. There's just one ability, which we've been openly talking about now. 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

17 minutes ago, Elandera said:

We're not called Trolls, but it is just a very troll-ish role. I blame Joe.

Yeah...  It's basically just Joe trolling us...I just skipped the explanation.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

@Mailliw772 Can I confirm that you’re leading this phantom third faction, and that it won’t cause the village to lose? Or if your win condition does, I’d rather you be honest and see if we can come to an arrangement, potentially pulling off a joint win (if we kill the last Spammer while simultaneously fulfilling whatever you want done). 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

2 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

@Mailliw772 Can I confirm that you’re leading this phantom third faction, and that it won’t cause the village to lose? Or if your win condition does, I’d rather you be honest and see if we can come to an arrangement, potentially pulling off a joint win (if we kill the last Spammer while simultaneously fulfilling whatever you want done). 

I know you weren't addressing me...but I'm going to answer anyway...I can't definitively confirm that it was Lumgol that started the faction, although I have no reason to doubt that.

I can confirm that when I was converted that I was notified that I retain the village wincon with the stipulation that I do NOT win unless all other villagers are in my faction...and I can now convert an additional person this weekend.  (So, I actually ended up being...not so great a person to convert given the fact that I have another good action available to me)

[Kidpen he/him]

11 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

I do NOT win unless all other villagers are in my faction...

... so is the extra win condition to convert all of the villagers?

[Droughtbringer]

1 hour ago, |247|-| said:

I know you weren't addressing me...but I'm going to answer anyway...I can't definitively confirm that it was Lumgol that started the faction, although I have no reason to doubt that.

I can confirm that when I was converted that I was notified that I retain the village wincon with the stipulation that I do NOT win unless all other villagers are in my faction...and I can now convert an additional person this weekend.  (So, I actually ended up being...not so great a person to convert given the fact that I have another good action available to me)

What purpose does your faction serve?

I don't see the purpose of a faction that just wants to convert the village, so, as it stands, I am still quite distrustful of this secret faction that is apparently on the village's side.

I'd purpose that we start making moves against this faction, as well as continuing to hunt down the Eliminators.

[Elandera she/her]

24 minutes ago, May I suggest The Only Joe said:

What purpose does your faction serve?

I don't see the purpose of a faction that just wants to convert the village, so, as it stands, I am still quite distrustful of this secret faction that is apparently on the village's side.

I'd purpose that we start making moves against this faction, as well as continuing to hunt down the Eliminators.

It serves literally no purpose, and really can't be classified as a faction. We can't communicate other than in the thread, just like everyone else. We all still retain our alignment, but just have the difficulty of needing to convert everyone in order to win alongside the village. As long as the people converted are villagers, we all still want a village win, with the stipulation that we are able to convert everyone first. I'm of the mentality that if I technically lose, but village wins, that's good enough for me.

However, suggesting we should hunt down a third faction that has not caused any harm seems a bit extreme. And a bit like a spammer attempting to get people off their trail.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I don't think that is a move a spammer would make, based on my experience. I'd say villagers make a disproportional number of the mistakes in an average SE game.

[Lumgol she/her]

I can confirm that I was the original member of this faction, and the extra wincon is to convert everyone else who is alive at the end of the game.

If everyone is converted before the game ends, that does not end the game.

[CadCom he/him]

It seems to me that the main thing it does is offer a counter balance to the village. I recall quite a few people stating that they thought the village might be overpoweres, but by adding this additional faction in, it makes it so that the the elim team focuses at least temporarily on converting other eliminators. 

At this point I think it would be too difficult and therefore not worth it to stop because each time that we kill one, they can convert at least two more, and that number will slowly grow. It might just be best to let them run its course.