Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Young Bard]

I'm sorry for being inactive - I meant to do another reread of Day 2 (like I did with Day 1 last cycle), but just ran out of time. Also, I was hoping that the Kidpen lynch would take off, but it doesn't appear like it has. To that end, Kidpen.

Hmmm... Rathmaskal. Their behavior has been odd, and there's always the possibility they're just straight up lying about their role, which is extremely difficult to confirm.

[Araris Valerian]

Sorry for my low activity guys. I just went back through the last day, and was totally ready to vote on Rae, and then I realized that Rae was killed during the night :/. Reading over what Fifth was posted since I voted on him, I've got a stronger village read. I'm going to vote on Alv again. I'm kind of lost in all the roleclaims (which I am usually against), and I still feel like his D1 voting pattern would be an easy way for an elim to hide. I didn't really find much of not in the D2 lynch, although I got confused for a while until I realized that Crimsn and Devotary were the same person.

@Seventh Saint You missed Metabardnition in your player list, unless he has been cleared and I missed it.

[Lumgol]

@Seventh Saint, you know that there are other ways to prove my role and alignment that don't involve lynching me. I can convert you N4 if you like, and you'll find out exactly what my role does.

[Elandera]

44 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

Elandera—An interesting case. Has been quite active, though her posts seem to contain more speculation than analysis. Supposedly has cleared Rath, though I’m not discounting the pair of them being Spammers, especially with Rath’s own “false” scan on Devotary. I’m almost certain, at the very least, that some of the “scans” floating around are false, and believe Elandera may be a good place to start looking for faked alignment scans. Very, very slight spambot read.

Lack of real analysis has been largely due to lack of time to actually sit and analyse. I've been able to follow relatively well, which is why there's been a fair amount of speculation instead. Tomorrow I should be able to sit down and actually get something written up.

As for Rath, the GMs have said why Devotary would have scanned as village.

On 3/27/2019 at 9:41 AM, A Joe in the Bush said:

PAFO on the order of actions, but an explanation on flavor: An alignment scan checks for odd activites on an account. If the account is targeted be Vodeyehi, then people would not be able to see any odd activites. This, they would see a normal account. Rathmaskal's story is perfectly in line with how any alignment scanner would interact with Vodeyehi.

We know, via CadCom, that Devotary was attacked that night but survived. We later found out she was Vodeyehi, and likely self protected. With the above explanation, it's reasonable to believe village!Rath scanned Devotary and received a village return, hence why they would be defensive of Devotary, if they really believed she was spammer. It's always a dangerous move to so staunchly defend a teammate when they're a strong lead in the lynch, as it shows definite ties afterward.

All I can say is the scan I did on Rath is because I was super suspicious. The reason I told Lum last cycle my action she requested from me (to convert CadCom) had to wait is because the scan was a one-cycle only and I found it the perfect opportunity to solidify my reason for a lynch. To say the least, the result was surprising. But after some questioning, everything seems to make sense. I also don't think of anything at the moment that would conceal an alignment, so I pretty well trust the results.

1 hour ago, Seventh Saint said:

It is worth noting that SookeSiled is a known redirect role, though, so we should be cautious. 

From what I understand, SookeSiled isn't actually a redirect. It's an action confuser. Each action will be changed to benefit the spammers and harm the village. I don't know how it would mess with Lum's conversion, but I don't think it would redirect it because no matter where it redirects, it still benefits those with that role.

1 hour ago, Seventh Saint said:

Walin—joined but has gone dead silent. From sheer balance reasons I don’t think Joe threw in an extra spammer mid-game, but I could see him being something trollish like a third-party. That said, there’s no reason really to kill him, and as he’s said so little he’s not even a priority CC target. Unless he comes back to life, he should be safe to ignore.

And this reasoning is exactly why I don't want to ignore him. He would be the perfect target for a conversion, because who would suspect the late-joined person to be the spammer?

I'm still not okay with just letting CadCom die, so I'll switch my vote. Walin to Alvron.

Rathmaskal (2) - Walin, Metabardnition
Alvron (3) - Adavantos, Araris, Elandera
Itiah (1) - Furamirionind
CadCom (3) - CadCom, Xino, Snipexe
Snipexe (2) - Aranduensis
Mailliw (1) - Seventh Saint

 

 

[Lumgol]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

All I can say is the scan I did on Rath is because I was super suspicious. The reason I told Lum last cycle my action she requested from me (to convert CadCom) had to wait is because the scan was a one-cycle only and I found it the perfect opportunity to solidify my reason for a lynch. To say the least, the result was surprising. But after some questioning, everything seems to make sense. I also don't think of anything at the moment that would conceal an alignment, so I pretty well trust the results.

Would you mind sharing any of the results? Or would you rather not?

[Elandera]

Just now, Mailliw772 said:

Would you mind sharing any of the results? Or would you rather not?

Rath showed to be Metacognition (which he claimed the day before), our extra role, and a village eliminator alignment.

[Rathmaskal]

So, I'm torn...  I want to provide the opportunity for the tie to happen so that Alv can prove his role...but to make that a reasonable test, I have to vote on myself.  At this point, I don't think that's a good choice.  :/

[Kidpen]

15 minutes ago, Elandera said:

From what I understand, SookeSiled isn't actually a redirect. It's an action confuser. Each action will be changed to benefit the spammers and harm the village. I don't know how it would mess with Lum's conversion, but I don't think it would redirect it because no matter where it redirects, it still benefits those with that role.

SookeSiled: Target a player during either Turn. Any player who did not take an action that turn targets that play with all applicable actions.

Not a traditional redirect, but a redirect nonetheless. You seem to be thinking of Temptation, who is dead.

[Lumgol]

Isn't there already a tie, between Alv and CadCom?

8 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

So, I'm torn...  I want to provide the opportunity for the tie to happen so that Alv can prove his role...but to make that a reasonable test, I have to vote on myself.  At this point, I don't think that's a good choice.  :/

 

[Elandera]

7 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

SookeSiled: Target a player during either Turn. Any player who did not take an action that turn targets that play with all applicable actions.

Not a traditional redirect, but a redirect nonetheless. You seem to be thinking of Temptation, who is dead.

Oh, storms. Sorry. I was thinking about Temptation for some reason, who's dead. 

Still, Lum says she submitted an action to convert Rae. That wouldn't qualify for the Sooke redirect.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Lum. The best way to test Alv is to have more than two options, since he'd have a 50/50 chance of being right on a guess. 

Edited March 29, 2019 by Elandera

[Rathmaskal]

Yes...as we mentioned earlier, however, it doesn't prove that much to let Alv have a 50/50 shot at guessing.

[xxGaea]

Alright, my darlings, there is currently 2 and a half-ish hours remaining in this turn~

[CadCom]

Popping in one more time before I go to bed. There is a very real possibility that when I wake up, I may be lynched. In that case, I will get the opportunity to kill one of the players who voted on me. As a possibly dying man's request, I ask that the person I kill be one of the points of discussion, and I will place a kill on the person the thread chooses. If you like, you can even set up some sort of alternate vote system to vote on that person. (Like purple instead of red) 

If most people dont want anyone of my voters killed. I will see if it's possible to choose not to kill anyone. Though I will not pursue that route until I see significant or visible public ninterest in that route. (I'm still not 100% sure If I would be allowed to just avoid the kill, though I dont see why not.)

[Lumgol]

I'd say, if you indeed get lynched, then Snipexe is the one I'd rather have killed. Xino and Snipexe have both been on the less active side; however, Xino's redirection is both an interesting discussion point and clears a bit of suspicion off of him (unless he's SookeSiled, but I'm not sure whether that would work the way it did with the redirect on Rath) and Snipexe just hasn't been contributing much in general.

[Elandera]

Honestly, I'm not sure voting would be helpful, because it gives more incentive for the target to just not vote. I'm up for just leaving it up to CadCom's discretion, if CadCom stays in the running.

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to vote on Alv again. I'm kind of lost in all the roleclaims (which I am usually against), and I still feel like his D1 voting pattern would be an easy way for an elim to hide.

Thank you for giving a reason for your vote.  The past 2 cycles you've voted on me without giving a reason.  While it's true that my voting pattern on D1 would be a good way to hide, it is also the way I would vote no matter what my alignment.  Almost every game for the past year that has random lynches on ties will have me hoping and trying to get a tie.  It's simply how I play.

 

26 minutes ago, |247|-| said:

Yes...as we mentioned earlier, however, it doesn't prove that much to let Alv have a 50/50 shot at guessing.

Currently it's a three way tie between CadCom, Snip and myself.  Or rather it was. I'll add my vote to Rath to make it a four way tie.  This gives me a 25% chance of guessing if I'm lying as well as a 25% chance of dying again if I'm lying.  I'm also open to being scanned during the Night.  I have nothing to hide.

Vote Tally:
Rath (3): Walin, Bard, Alv
Alv (3): Ada, Araris, Elan
Araris (1): Fura
CadCom (3): CadCom, Xino, Snip
Itiah (1): Fura
Snip (3): Rand
Lum (1): Fifth

[Elandera]

20 minutes ago, Renalvgade said:

Currently it's a three way tie between CadCom, Snip and myself.  Or rather it was. I'll add my vote to Rath to make it a four way tie.  This gives me a 25% chance of guessing if I'm lying as well as a 25% chance of dying again if I'm lying.  I'm also open to being scanned during the Night.  I have nothing to hide.

I thought Arand's vote only counted as two. @Aranduensis does it count as three? I had assumed the extra vote came from someone else's vote manipulation.

[Alvron]

 

4 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I thought Arand's vote only counted as two. @Aranduensis does it count as three? I had assumed the extra vote came from someone else's vote manipulation.

He posted about it earlier.

17 hours ago, Aranduensis said:

For those looking to create a multi-tie, I add an additional two votes when I'm the first to vote on someone. I initially kept it more vague in the hope of maybe baiting out a false claim, but that's not looking very likely.

[Elandera]

Just now, Renalvgade said:

He posted about it earlier.

Oh, my bad. Apparently I haven't been following closely as I'd thought today. That's a ridiculous amount of voting power.

[Araris Valerian]

@Renalvgade I had intended to give that same reasoning last cycle, but I guess it didn't come though my post. Also, while I agree you may have made such a post regardless of alignment, it was my thought that you may have been more likely to get involved in the first place as an elim.

[Kidpen]

So Alv, assuming the current vote count is right, who are you planning to break the tie to?

[Alvron]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Oh, my bad. Apparently I haven't been following closely as I'd thought today. That's a ridiculous amount of voting power.

I only saw it as it was in the post that irked me.

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

@Renalvgade I had intended to give that same reasoning last cycle, but I guess it didn't come though my post. Also, while I agree you may have made such a post regardless of alignment, it was my thought that you may have been more likely to get involved in the first place as an elim.

I think I answered that during D2.  Yep, here it is.  I would quote it but since I'm already typing up this post responding to Elan, it won't let me multi quote into this one.  I very likely would've voted the way I did on D1 if I was evil. But I don't truly know.

1 minute ago, Kidpen said:

So Alv, assuming the current vote count is right, who are you planning to break the tie to?

As stated earlier in cycle. I will say who I'm tipping the scales toward approx 5 mins before the end of cycle.

[Kidpen]

2 minutes ago, Renalvgade said:

As stated earlier in cycle. I will say who I'm tipping the scales toward approx 5 mins before the end of cycle.

Ah, alright. Didn't see that.

[Amanuensis]

I'm pretty okay with a Snip death, for the record. I'd switch my vote but it seems more wise to let Alv handle it, though. Unless the ridiculous scenario of Rath, Lum and Elan being evil is true, Rath is very likely village. CadCom shouldn't even be a consideration, imo. I would also love a @May I suggest The Only Joe death sooner rather than later, but the Contribution Crusader should be able to take care of that since I'm pretty sure Drought hasn't posted 5 times this turn.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Adavantos
Fixing the price of justification

[I think I am here.]

Alright, so I probably shouldn’t vote, right? As to not ruin the 4-way tie?