Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

Alright, so I probably shouldn’t vote, right? As to not ruin the 4-way tie?

You could always try to create a 5-way tie. As Ada said, two of the four options seem more village than suspicious, leaving really only one option for Alv.

[Alvron]

3 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

Alright, so I probably shouldn’t vote, right? As to not ruin the 4-way tie?

Please do.  Part of the reason I'm waiting until the last 5 mins is so there can still be discussion.  Ada kinda wants Drought brought into the mix so you can vote on him if you want.

[I think I am here.]

Hum, okay. drought

[xxGaea]

An hour remains, my dears~

[Alvron]

@Kidpen you want to place a vote?  See if we can make it a 5-way tie?

Current (and hopefully correct) Vote Tally:
Rath (3): Walin, Bard, Alv
Alv (3): Ada, Araris, Elan
CadCom (3): CadCom, Xino, Snip
Itiah (1): Fura
Snip (3): Rand
Lum (1): Fifth
Drought (1): Itiah

My last vote tally had a rather embarrassing mistake.  I had Fura down as voting for both Araris and Itiah.  Opps.

[xxGaea]

Little over 30 minutes left, dearies~

[xxGaea]

Five minutes left, my dears~

[Alvron]

I am shifting the scales to CadCom being lynched.  Why? Because it's more fun. CadCom dies, he gets his win but he also gets to pick who to kill out of Snip and Xino.  More randomness and uncertainty.  Plus, I've never liked it when players vote on themselves.  It's a self defeating tactic and not something I encourage. 

[Amanuensis]

I suppose if you went after CadCom and he just used his ability on Snip, things wouldn't be too bad. I'd rather have more villagers than less, tho

ED1T: Ninja'd

ED2T: Thank you for helping us get Vodiyehi, CadCom. You'll be missed

Edited March 29, 2019 by Adavantos
Great minds think alike, it seems

[xxGaea]

Turn has now ended, please wait for the new thread to be posted, dearlings~

[xxGaea]

Hello darlings~! Unfortunately, @A Joe in the Bush is MIA. I haven't the slightest idea where he has disappeared to--I just hope the bots have not gotten to him!
While his account has not been deleted, he is no-where to be seen. Hopefully he shows up again soon, no?

Alvron has been banned! He was Babaji~!

And so begins the next Weekend~ 

Vote Tally:

Rath (3): Walin, Bard, Alv

Alv (3): Ada, Araris, Elan

CadCom (3): CadCom, Xino, Snip

Itiah (1): Fura

Snip (3): Rand

Lum (1): Fifth

Drought (1): Itiah

[I think I am here.]

Oh, that’s lucky. That’s amazing. Out of four potential candidates, we got the one elim? And at that, Babaji himself!

Oh, that’s lucky. Makes me wonder if there really is a tiebreaker role her that shifted it to Alvron.

And now we don’t have to worry about converts! So yip yip.

[Furamirionind]

Wait, what? I really didn't expect that... I 100% believed Alv's role-claim.  I was considering voting on him to interact with him, however I didn't want to vote on someone and have them die... This... wow... I am speechless...

Edit: Ninjad

1 minute ago, I think I am here. said:

Oh, that’s lucky. That’s amazing. Out of four potential candidates, we got the one elim? And at that, Babaji himself!

Oh, that’s lucky. Makes me wonder if there really is a tiebreaker role her that shifted it to Alvron.

And now we don’t have to worry about converts! So yip yip.

I disagree, they could have converted anytime before now... I think there is still a convert out there.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Furamirionind

[I think I am here.]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

I disagree, they could have converted anytime before now... I think there is still a convert out there.

Oh, I know, I just mean now we can trust our reads without having to worry that the trusted person can become a converted, since the convert has either already been used, or can’t be used.

[Elandera]

Fura's right. Unfortunately, since it was a one-time conversion, Alvron likely converted someone already. And that person might be someone we've cleared. We can't clear on role alone.

I admire the risk though! And that's probably also why he tried to get it to a 5-way tie, further distancing himself from RNG possibilities. But the Gods of Luck and Chance were not on his side tonight. It's also impressive that we've gone 3 for 3. Good job everyone!

[Young Bard]

That's... what?

@Cadmium Compounder... Is this your doing?

[Elandera]

Oh, and @Mailliw772, I'm going with the conversion you requested of me. Finally.

9 minutes ago, Metabardnition said:

That's... what?

@Cadmium Compounder... Is this your doing?

From what I can tell, it was completely random. Alvron was lying about their ability, and so him being among those up for the lynch ended with him being selected by RNG. CadCom's claimed ability wouldn't come into play in that case.

[Young Bard]

Bleh. I feel like it has to be more than that.

As was mentioned last cycle, Alv had a 25% chance of guessing correctly, and presumably they'd either have thought of an excuse for why his role didn't work, or else he had a plan in place for it to appear like it did work, and that fell through somehow.

Assuming it's the second, I'd place greater than even odds on the Spambot convert having the ability this cycle of having a vote manipulation. The only one with a claimed ability like that is Rand, but it doesn't fit the description, since we know Arand's extra votes are on Snipexe. That leaves someone who currently has not claimed their role, or a Roleplayer. Alv first claimed Night 2, so (and please confirm this for me, @Seventh Saint and @Cadmium Compounder) the Roleplayers would have known which roles they would have for Day 3 (that would have required the Roleplayer to have been converted Night 1, though). Since CadCom was Alv's 'target' (though, given Alv, I can't entirely rule out the possibility of this being an IKYK), I think they're probably village. I'd be curious to know what role Seventh had this Week, and what they have tonight.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Metabardnition
25%, not 20%. I can't math.

[Fifth Scholar]

18 minutes ago, Metabardnition said:

Assuming it's the second, I'd place greater than even odds on the Spambot convert having the ability this cycle of having a vote manipulation. The only one with a claimed ability like that is Rand, but it doesn't fit the description, since we know Arand's extra votes are on Snipexe. That leaves someone who currently has not claimed their role, or a Roleplayer. Alv first claimed Night 2, so (and please confirm this for me, @Seventh Saint and @Cadmium Compounder) the Roleplayers would have known which roles they would have for Day 3 (that would have required the Roleplayer to have been converted Night 1, though). Since CadCom was Alv's 'target' (though, given Alv, I can't entirely rule out the possibility of this being an IKYK), I think they're probably village. I'd be curious to know what role Seventh had this Week, and what they have tonight.

Yes, I knew my new role beginning N2, and carried it through D3. I was a Mastrell, from LG29, which obfuscated scans. Right now I have the Coinshot 2 role from LG41 (another of Joe’s games actually) and the terminology has been modified for this game; I can protect myself from all actions targeting me, except Babaji’s kill or alignment scans. 

Edited March 29, 2019 by Seventh Saint
Typos

[Young Bard]

2 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

Yes, I knew my new role beginning N2, and carried it through D3. I was a Mastrell, from LG29, which obfuscated scans. Right now I have the Coinshot 2 role from LG41 (another of Joe’s games actually) and the terminology has been modified for this game; I can protect myself from all actions targeting me, except Babaji’s kill or alignment scans. 

Right. Hopefully someone will test this tonight, and confirm in thread tomorrow. (I don't think the Spambots would have two Vodiyehi's, but it's hard to say for certain, given how powerful all the village roles are.)

[Amanuensis]

I can't begin to express how ecstatic I am that Alv didn't escape this one. That was such a brave move on his part, and if he actually succeeded in predicting Cad Com, the reward would have been immense. Nice try, brother. Mucho respect!

While I do have some concerns that this game favours the Eliminators a little too much, I just want to say that the fact we have got three lynches right in a row has been more of a matter of luck and some teamwork than a matter of imbalance. I hope the GMs aren't beating themselves up too much about the way things have unfolded, and I hope the Spammers are having some fun, nonetheless.

That all said, I have no doubts that Alv converted someone. After lynching Devotary yesterday I really don't think the Spammers could afford stalling. I am going to see if I can figure out who they went for, in the end.

Also this might sound a bit unwise, considering I voted for Alv myself, but I'm hesitant to clear Araris for that. He has kind of been tunneling on Alv the whole game for reasons I don't really understand, which usually makes me think "elim distancing".

@Araris Valerian I would love to see you post more. We miss you and your grumpy ways

Edited March 29, 2019 by Adavantos
Forgot to justify :P

[DeTess]

*laughs like crazy*

You've got to admit, there's something very poetic about Alvron of all people falling to a multi-tie like this. And I agree with Ada that this was a very brave move on his part, and it could probably have turned things around if he'd succeeded.

If I had to guess, I'd say there's a single OG spammer and a convert left at this point.

edit:

3 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

Oh, that’s lucky. That’s amazing. Out of four potential candidates, we got the one elim? And at that, Babaji himself!

Oh, that’s lucky. Makes me wonder if there really is a tiebreaker role her that shifted it to Alvron.

And now we don’t have to worry about converts! So yip yip.

ITIAH, what makes you so sure there was only one elim in that tie?

Edited March 29, 2019 by Aranduensis

[I think I am here.]

19 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

ITIAH, what makes you so sure there was only one elim in that tie?

Nothing, I’m not really sure, but my excitement was kind of rampant, and I forgot to include the fact that there might have been more. But the fact we got Babaji, even if there were other elims, is good.

[Amanuensis]

2 hours ago, Metabardnition said:

Bleh. I feel like it has to be more than that.

As was mentioned last cycle, Alv had a 25% chance of guessing correctly, and presumably they'd either have thought of an excuse for why his role didn't work, or else he had a plan in place for it to appear like it did work, and that fell through somehow.

Assuming it's the second, I'd place greater than even odds on the Spambot convert having the ability this cycle of having a vote manipulation. The only one with a claimed ability like that is Rand, but it doesn't fit the description, since we know Arand's extra votes are on Snipexe. That leaves someone who currently has not claimed their role, or a Roleplayer. Alv first claimed Night 2, so (and please confirm this for me, @Seventh Saint and @Cadmium Compounder) the Roleplayers would have known which roles they would have for Day 3 (that would have required the Roleplayer to have been converted Night 1, though). Since CadCom was Alv's 'target' (though, given Alv, I can't entirely rule out the possibility of this being an IKYK), I think they're probably village. I'd be curious to know what role Seventh had this Week, and what they have tonight.

Hm. Meta, didn't you say something about getting blocked last turn? If so, that means we still got Vashikaran out there, right?

[Young Bard]

4 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Hm. Meta, didn't you say something about getting blocked last turn? If so, that means we still got Vashikaran out there, right?

That's right. So right now, we've seen one roleless, one Temptation, one Babaji, and one Vodiyehi all dead, and (probably) one Vashikaran alive and one convert.