Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[DeTess]

@Cadmium Compounder, which specific past role is your role currently emulating?

I'm pretty wary of those immediately jumping on his lynch,a s it's an all-but-confirmed mislynch, which would give the evil team some much-needed breathing room.

[xinoehp512]

I don't currently have any better suspicions, but that might change.

[CadCom]

28 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

@Cadmium Compounder, which specific past role is your role currently emulating?

I'm pretty wary of those immediately jumping on his lynch,a s it's an all-but-confirmed mislynch, which would give the evil team some much-needed breathing room.

I will reveal that in a little bit as there are mechanics of the role I don't want the knowledge of put into the wrong hands until it's close to too late to use it, but you are making the correct assumption that I am a roleplayer, who received a previous role. 

Part of my plan was to bring up exactly what you brought up nearer the end of the cycle as well, that there is a higher likelihood of people looking for an easy lynch in the group of people who at some point vote for me, so to be most wary of them. 

[Lumgol]

Huh. So if we don't lynch you, you still survive and are capable of winning as a villager. I need you too much. CadCom.

[CadCom]

1 minute ago, Mailliw772 said:

Huh. So if we don't lynch you, you still survive and are capable of winning as a villager. I need you too much. CadCom.

Huh, so you need me too much but you havent even converted me yet? Weird. 

[Lumgol]

Just now, Cadmium Compounder said:

Huh, so you need me too much but you havent even converted me yet? Weird. 

I'm planning to.

[Furamirionind]

I'm not happy with my vote:

I feel I havent heard much from Bard lately. @Metabardnition

Araris

Metabardnition

Edit: okay, reskimmed the thread and am still unhappy with my vote... I am conflicted about poking Elandera or Itiah... however, Itiah has been posting a lot less ever since they were cleared, so I think I will poke them. @I think I am here.

Metabardnition

Itiah

Edited March 28, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

For lack of time, I'm going to vote for Alvron. @Renalvgade, are you worried at all about being lynched? I haven't gotten that impression, which feels weird from either alignment. If you're an Eliminator I would really appreciate some of that shadowy wisdom of yours.

[Elandera]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I am conflicted about poking Elandera or Itiah

Out of curiosity, why consider poking me? I think I've been posting a fairly normal amount, though possibly less substantial than some past games. Sorry for that. I just switched to a graveyard shift and am adjusting to the sleep schedule.

On another note, the CadCom thing concerns me. Most of us have at least a list of people we haven't seen cleared or prove a role. In the end, it's far more beneficial to lynch a suspected elim than an almost confirmed villager. Then again, the initial post reeks of IKYK potential.

[Alvron]

Let me preface this: Ever since I was a kid I have loved science. It helped me get through some tough times so when someone uses faulty logic or bad science it really gets under my skin.  I know you didn't mean it to Rand but your post got me quite irked.  It will very likely colour my response so I do apologize if anything I say comes off as rude or insulting.
Here we go.

I have several problems with your post Rand.

9 hours ago, Aranduensis said:

I've looked through LG51, which was the most recent 'standard' game in which Alv played, and the difference in play-style was striking. Alv was very proactive that game, suggesting plans and pushing for information, so I'm not buying the 'I always am low on content' argument at all, so my vote is staying.

Firstly, I did not say 'I always am low on content' I said and I quote

23 hours ago, Renalvgade said:

I normally say very little of substance.

Content can be anything from RP, jokes or game talk.  Substance however I consider to only be game talk.  Also I said 'normally' not 'always'. There is a vast difference between those words.

Secondly, if you are going to only compare this game to one other then you must, I repeat, must for a true reading and scientific process compare it to a similar game.  It is better if you take several games for a true comparison but if not then one very close to the current one is a must. LG51 is not a blackout. It does not have a team of Elims at start and it had PMs throughout the game.  Three things this game doesn't have.

Thirdly, LG51 was not a standard game.  It was a standard conversion game.  A standard game starts with a team of eliminators and doesn't have conversions.  A standard conversion game doesn't start with a team of elims but rather starts with one player that can convert.  These are very important differences as they change how people approach the game and how they play.

Fourthly, did you read LG51 up to the point I died?  If you did them you would've noticed that I started out pushing for information and as the game progressed, I got quieter and quieter.  Which if you check similar games where there is only one elim at start, it's fairly standard for me to do so.

Again, I apologize if anything I said offends or hurts you but your post really got under my skin.

---------------------------
 

53 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

For lack of time, I'm going to vote for Alvron. @Renalvgade, are you worried at all about being lynched? I haven't gotten that impression, which feels weird from either alignment. If you're an Eliminator I would really appreciate some of that shadowy wisdom of yours.

I never mind being lynched no matter which side I am on.  I do however prefer it to be a tied lynch so the Gods of Luck and Chance have their say but if I'm lynched then I'm lynched.  However, if lynched by a good amount then having good reasoning is needed. Nothing I hate more than to be lynched over bad logic. (See above)  

[Sapphire Elephant]

Ok, my confusion has utterly peaked about CadCom. What the heck is he talking about?
Edit: And of course, I made the mistake of posting with this account, beginning the rush of endless upvotes Upvote sadists. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Sapphire Elephant

[Furamirionind]

6 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

Ok, my confusion has utterly peaked about CadCom. What the heck is he talking about?

Hmm, I felt like Lums comment was stranger, however I suppose CadComs is very much as well.

@Cadmium Compounder @Mailliw772 did the two of you have a PM? Another thought, did anyone share the role of "Roleplayer" with Fifth before PMs went down? This is just speculation, but it would be funny if Fifth, pretending to be a roleplayer, tried to get himself lynched when he didnt have a role that protected him.  CadCom, an actual roleplayer, then gets a role trying to get himself lynched due to Fifth pretending something similar.

This could also work the other way around, with Fifth being the roleplayer, and CadCom roleplaying a roleplayer... it would be very funny.

As a response to my absurd analysis, I am considering switching my vote, yet again, to one of these two... however I would not reccomend others doing so unless there is more info to support this.

19 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Out of curiosity, why consider poking me? I think I've been posting a fairly normal amount, though possibly less substantial than some past games. Sorry for that. I just switched to a graveyard shift and am adjusting to the sleep schedule.

Because I for the most part trust you and Itiah.

Also because I am disappointed I did a bit too good of a job clearing myself earlier in the game.  My role benifits me when people vote on me...

this sounds kind of like something a spammer would say right? Maybe I can convince some people to try and lynch me? : )

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Because I for the most part trust you and Itiah.

Also because I am disappointed I did a bit too good of a job clearing myself earlier in the game.  My role benifits me when people vote on me...

Oh yeah! I forgot you had some kind of weird vote-related role. If you'd like, I can vote on you... but only if there's a clear leader in votes. I don't want to accidentally end up lynching you.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Oh yeah! I forgot you had some kind of weird vote-related role. If you'd like, I can vote on you... but only if there's a clear leader in votes. I don't want to accidentally end up lynching you.

(Bolding mine)

*facepalm* lol

: )

Edited March 28, 2019 by Furamirionind
Bolded stuff

[Fifth Scholar]

Gah, I’ve been really, really sadly low on content this cycle, and I really need to step it up a bit when it comes to analysis. Give me a few hours (relatives are over again), and I’ll put a thought-out vote down, hopefully. Until then, Rathmaskal Fifth to incentivise me to actually do so. 

[Lumgol]

@Furamirionind Yes, CadCom and I had a PM.

[Furamirionind]

Fifth, as I believe Alv is significantly in the lead, that isnt too dangerous for you... however I laud the effort. ____________________________________________

Furamirionind, or at least that is what they were called, glanced around the forum they had grown to love.  Fura had noticed a dramatic increase of spam accounts ever since Seonid left the forum.  However, when those accounts started joining SE games, Fura knew something had to be done. It was time to read!

Fura pulled the book, "Memoirs of an Ordinary Person" of their shelf.  Drastic times called for drastic measures, and this book was that.  While having only read to article 6 so far, skipping to article 74 was the answer.

____________________________________________

Memoirs of an Ordinary Person: Article LXXIV

How to catch Spammers:

If you are reading this, you obviously didnt read the previous article where I told you to skip this one. Go back to article 1 and start the book over.

____________________________________________

well then... I really want to catch those spammers, so I guess I need to start over...

____________________________________________

Memoirs of an Ordinary Person: Article I

We must begin by asking a very straightforward question.  What is the purpose of life? This is quite a simple question to answer. The purpose of life, is naturally, to live.

That being said, while that does answer the question, to truly understand the answer, we must create a definition of life...

____________________________________________

This was going to be a long read...

Edited March 28, 2019 by Furamirionind
I was originally planning on writing an entire article 1 and 74, but I ran out of time...

[DeTess]

@Renalvgade, do you have a suggestion for which game I should look at, then? Going further back than lg51 would involve dropping out of your easily accessible posting history, but if you've got a suggestion before I retire in an hour or so, I'd happily take another look around.

[I think I am here.]

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm not happy with my vote:

I feel I havent heard much from Bard lately. @Metabardnition

Araris

Metabardnition

Edit: okay, reskimmed the thread and am still unhappy with my vote... I am conflicted about poking Elandera or Itiah... however, Itiah has been posting a lot less ever since they were cleared, so I think I will poke them. @I think I am here.

Metabardnition

Itiah

Sorry guys. Stuff has been happening with the wifi so I’ll try to post later today, but through most of the day I’m going to be gone, like the wind.

[Alvron]

53 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

@Renalvgade, do you have a suggestion for which game I should look at, then? Going further back than lg51 would involve dropping out of your easily accessible posting history, but if you've got a suggestion before I retire in an hour or so, I'd happily take another look around.

Every game I've played is listed in my About Me page.  I would find one for you but I shouldn't even be online right now.

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Renalvgade said:

Every game I've played is listed in my About Me page.  I would find one for you but I shouldn't even be online right now.

Thanks, that's useful. I've found a bunch on my own, but this helps.

I've been doing some more checking around on Alv's previous playstyles (MR27, LG47, LG48), and it seems that LG51 might indeed have been an anomaly, so that'd move Alvron back to Neutral territory. In fact, seeing how he started MR31 suggests that Alv has something of a different approach to conversion games, which is interesting.

So, if not Alv, then who? Earlier this thread, I had the following list of suspects for the remaining OG spammers:

1. @May I suggest The Only Joe
2. xinoehp512
3. Snipexe
4. Alvron
5. |257|-|
6. Araris Valerian
7. Kidpen
8. Walin

Of these, Kidpen has, presumably, an role than could easily be confirmed next cycle. Xinoeph has also claimed a role, whose claim is backed up by Mailliw. If Mailliw is the spammer convert, it could have been a maneuver concocted to clear Xinoeph, but I'm having a hard time figuring out why they'd target Mailliw for the conversion. Rath has been scanned as village+mailliw's crew,  and if he'd been Beirst, he'd only have scanned as village (and have been unconvertible). That is assuming Elandera isn't a spammer, though, but for that set to work out, mailliw would have to be evil as well. 

Drought has been suggesting he actually has a role of sorts, probably something that switches two people around wrt to targeting, though that's harder to check.

So, the list could be shortened to:

1. @May I suggest The Only Joe
2. Snipexe
3. Alvron
4. Araris Valerian
5. Walin

Unfortunately, all of these are lower active, which makes determining who, if any, of them are evil more difficult. @Mailliw772, just to confirm, your 'conversion' also works on spammers, right?

So, after due consideration, I've decided I'll move my vote from Alvron, as I'm not more suspicious of him than the other 4, and he does have a reasonable sounding role-claim. I've got absolutely nothing on Walin and Snipexe, while I see a bit of game-solving being done by Araris. Content from @May I suggest The Only Joe is also pretty low right now.

For now, I'll vote on Snipexe, ( @Snipexe) as they clearly are paying some attention to the thread, judging by their vote on Cadcom. Snipexe, I really hope to see some of your game-ralted thoughts. I know this game has been moving relatively quickly, but a lot of it has been tie-dances and meta-theological discussions, so it shouldn't be that hard to add something beyond a wild vote on Cadcom.

[Lumgol]

@Furamirionind Yes. My conversion can work on anyone, regardless of alignments, and converting someone doesn't change their alignment or existing roles.

[CadCom]

I just want to put quick thoughts on a few players and other things. 

First, fura, I believe I cryptically claimed to you in the thread before fifth claimed the same role as me. I didnt tell anyone else of the role, so that makes me inclined to lean eliminator(at least at the beginning of the game) on fifth. (Nothing has really happened that would make me lean past neutral towards spammer either)

Second, Lum and I did have a PM during the first cycle where he informed me of some of the mechanics of his role, he was trying to convert since then, and I believe that he still has a village aligned wincon, but he must complete his additional wincon in order to also win. 

Third, regarding my role, as roleplayer, each weekend I pick up a previous role from a previous game. This weekend I got angry gang member from MR 12. If I'm lynched, I win immediately but the game continues, and I get to choose a player that voted on me to kill the next turn as well. I think that I would have had a higher chance of killing a spammer over a normal villager but now that I've revealed that mechanic of my role, i believe that any remaining eliminator will likely try to leave my lynch. Of course it's all ikyk at this point too. 

Anyway, I havent seen a vote count recently, and I dont have time to tally one up. Anyone up to the task?

Edit: I actually did a quick skim since the last vote count, and have a rough vote count 

Rathmaskal (2) 
Alvron (1)
Kidpen (1) 
Walin (1) 

CadCom (3)

snipexe (1)

Itiah (1)

sorry for no names, I'm on mobile and in a hurry. 

Edited March 29, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Snipexe]

1 hour ago, Aranduensis said:

Thanks, that's useful. I've found a bunch on my own, but this helps.

I've been doing some more checking around on Alv's previous playstyles (MR27, LG47, LG48), and it seems that LG51 might indeed have been an anomaly, so that'd move Alvron back to Neutral territory. In fact, seeing how he started MR31 suggests that Alv has something of a different approach to conversion games, which is interesting.

So, if not Alv, then who? Earlier this thread, I had the following list of suspects for the remaining OG spammers:

1. @May I suggest The Only Joe
2. xinoehp512
3. Snipexe
4. Alvron
5. |257|-|
6. Araris Valerian
7. Kidpen
8. Walin

Of these, Kidpen has, presumably, an role than could easily be confirmed next cycle. Xinoeph has also claimed a role, whose claim is backed up by Mailliw. If Mailliw is the spammer convert, it could have been a maneuver concocted to clear Xinoeph, but I'm having a hard time figuring out why they'd target Mailliw for the conversion. Rath has been scanned as village+mailliw's crew,  and if he'd been Beirst, he'd only have scanned as village (and have been unconvertible). That is assuming Elandera isn't a spammer, though, but for that set to work out, mailliw would have to be evil as well. 

Drought has been suggesting he actually has a role of sorts, probably something that switches two people around wrt to targeting, though that's harder to check.

So, the list could be shortened to:

1. @May I suggest The Only Joe
2. Snipexe
3. Alvron
4. Araris Valerian
5. Walin

Unfortunately, all of these are lower active, which makes determining who, if any, of them are evil more difficult. @Mailliw772, just to confirm, your 'conversion' also works on spammers, right?

So, after due consideration, I've decided I'll move my vote from Alvron, as I'm not more suspicious of him than the other 4, and he does have a reasonable sounding role-claim. I've got absolutely nothing on Walin and Snipexe, while I see a bit of game-solving being done by Araris. Content from @May I suggest The Only Joe is also pretty low right now.

For now, I'll vote on Snipexe, ( @Snipexe) as they clearly are paying some attention to the thread, judging by their vote on Cadcom. Snipexe, I really hope to see some of your game-ralted thoughts. I know this game has been moving relatively quickly, but a lot of it has been tie-dances and meta-theological discussions, so it shouldn't be that hard to add something beyond a wild vote on Cadcom.

I mean I wouldn't really describe it as paying attention, more like reading the last 5 posts or so really hurriedly (at least for this thread). I voted for Cadcom primarily because they asked for, and at this moment I don't really have any suspicions. I've read a decent chunk of the previous threads, but I think I've missed some key details or posts. The list you have posted has very few people compared to the total number of people playing the game, have there been clears I wasn't aware. Right not my gut read says Alvron is a spammer, but that isn't a true suspicion, rather just a vague impression from my subconscious.

[Fifth Scholar]

A player list, to which I append by somewhat jumbled thoughts:

1. May I suggest The Only Joe—Has had very little overall content. His only notable points are a general suspicion of Lumgol, and a commitment to be more active which he never really followed through on. No read, would be a good target for a Crusader if he never shows back up between now and the end of the Night. 
2. Elandera—An interesting case. Has been quite active, though her posts seem to contain more speculation than analysis. Supposedly has cleared Rath, though I’m not discounting the pair of them being Spammers, especially with Rath’s own “false” scan on Devotary. I’m almost certain, at the very least, that some of the “scans” floating around are false, and believe Elandera may be a good place to start looking for faked alignment scans. Very, very slight spambot read. 
3. xinoehp512–Seems a touch low on activity. General bandwagon-voting, low-activity, not a huge focus right now. Claims a redirection role, which fits with some versions of events. It is worth noting that SookeSiled is a known redirect role, though, so we should be cautious. 
4. Furamirionind—I have no idea, frankly. Has posted a lot, but the sheer volume and my sheer lack of time makes that too much of a block to analyse. Keeping at a neutral/slight village read for now based on pure tone.
5. Adavantos—My best village read at the moment. Obviously this makes him a likely convert, but he’s been vocal, analysis-driven, and correct, and as a result I’ve got him as very strongly village without really needing to review his posts. 
6. Aranduensis—Has been doing a lot of analysis, though that’s NAI for them. Fairly unconfirmed at the moment, though their attitude in the last couple of cycles towards solving the game has improved my read on them (though it should be noted that I believe they’re currently focusing on the wrong group of players, which I’ll get to in a while). Overall neutral. 
7. NotASteelClone—confirmed multi-boxer. 
8. I think I am here.—Has posted so much in the alleyverse I can’t find his SE content.  Is supposedly cleared, based off a comment Fura made, though I honestly forget how. 
9. Seventh Saint—me.
10. Cadmium Compounder—Not sure on him. The “please lynch me” tactic, while I did use it, is, as many have rightfully mentioned when I did it, not a sign of innocence. He does claim roleplayer, in which case he will lose his jester role soon if he’s telling the truth. 
11. Mailliw772–The pin holding together a lot of the claims. I’d very much like to know either her full ability set or her alignment (preferably both), since her death would inform us on quite a few people, and I’ve gotten bad tone reads on some of her comments and actions, most recently the rapid on-and-off switch with CadCom.
12. Snipexe—Seems to be getting more active. As I’m getting more sleepy, I’ll lazily assign him “ok for now” and think more in the morning. 
13. alVoidus—my thoughts echo others’ on Alv—he is potentially suspicious. However, his very lack of content makes him a poor lynch target, so while I suspect him slightly I’d rather kill Elandera or Lum this cycle. 
14. |257|-|—Has been supposedly cleared by Elandera. 
15. Araris Valerian—very low activity, which is slightly unusual for him. Our Crusader ought to have his work cut out for him. 
16. Sapphire Elephant—anon account, Steel, village.
17. Walin—joined but has gone dead silent. From sheer balance reasons I don’t think Joe threw in an extra spammer mid-game, but I could see him being something trollish like a third-party. That said, there’s no reason really to kill him, and as he’s said so little he’s not even a priority CC target. Unless he comes back to life, he should be safe to ignore.

Okay, that was too long. I don’t expect to drastically alter anything two hours from rollover but Fifth Mailliw772/Lum. Aside from being curious about her alignment in the wake of all the claims surrounding her, I’m also wary of her posts in general, which I believe I’ve stated in previous posts. My apprehension about her, in short, won’t go away.