Mid-Range Game 23: A Desperate Alliance

[Yitzi2]

On 7/20/2017 at 9:06 PM, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I was a Shardbearer with a Shardplate. I don't know who would attack me, because the only person I have talked to other than in-forum is Joe via PM.

Probably someone who's searching for the SoH bladebearer by attacking random people.

EDIT: After lynching BR, we're finishing the job on Jon.  And after that, it would really be good if the Parshendi scanners could find at least one more Voidbringer for us; once we lynch him, there'll be a lot less reason to worry about a potential Parshendi backstab.

 

By the way, @Drake Marshall does it make sense to agree that from this point, we'll try to use the lynch to keep attacks on Parshendi and attacks on Alethi (including, in both cases, those that don't result in deaths) roughly equal?  (Of course, this wouldn't be binding in the endgame, or even once the last Voidbringer or last Son of Honor is eliminated, but until then.)

Edited July 20, 2017 by Yitzi2

[Steeldancer he/him]

Jondesu is still alive folks. Still a ghostblood. And I'll keep voting on him until I die. 

[Stick. she/her]

24 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Jondesu is still alive folks. Still a ghostblood. And I'll keep voting on him until I die. 

Until he dies, I think you mean.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I'm going on a band trip down to San Antonio, and I won't be on hardly at all, so don't expect much from me these next few days. I'll probably be able to get on every now and then, but I dunno if my roommates will like me getting on my iPad while we're trying to sleep lol.

Besides that, I'm not gonna vote this cycle because I don't like not being able to change my vote later, though right now I'd recommend lynching BR to try and keep the peace.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

 

8 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

I was a Shardbearer with a Shardplate. I don't know who would attack me, because the only person I have talked to other than in-forum is Joe via PM. 

I am going to hold off voting on anyone for now, because I am really, really tired. I will try and get on tomorrow to read, but I have to work and have a bunch of schoolwork I have to do, heh.

Stormfather. On average, it looks like a given Alethi is able to survive nearly as many attacks as one of the Parshendi is, in addition to the advantage of numbers.  

2 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

By the way, @Drake Marshall does it make sense to agree that from this point, we'll try to use the lynch to keep attacks on Parshendi and attacks on Alethi (including, in both cases, those that don't result in deaths) roughly equal?  (Of course, this wouldn't be binding in the endgame, or even once the last Voidbringer or last Son of Honor is eliminated, but until then.)

In principle, this seems like a reasonable proposition.

But I think we may want to prioritize minimizing casualties to either side. I suspect that if the Alethi and Parshendi take an equal number of kills-per-cycle, the Parshendi are going to die off much sooner than the Alethi.

[A Joe in the Bush]

12 hours ago, Sart said:

I'm curious to see how this plays out. Joe, I think you are an Alethi Ghostblood. You voted on Orlok, and then Brightness, but you never voted for Jondesu. Would you like to defend yourself?

I was busy yesterday, and I will be busy today. I managed to Total my Car late last night, and I just got off the phone with USAA. I need to do a bunch of tings, including finding a junker to buy my car, finding and buying a new car, figuring out how to get to work without a car, and figuring out how I'm going to be paying for all this. So I would like to defend myself, but i have to go, so my defense is simply, i was and am busy, and i was doing what i thought would lead to an unaligned victory. I'll vote for Jondesu for now, and i will see you all hopefully soon.

[Yitzi2]

3 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

 

Stormfather. On average, it looks like a given Alethi is able to survive nearly as many attacks as one of the Parshendi is, in addition to the advantage of numbers.  

In principle, this seems like a reasonable proposition.

But I think we may want to prioritize minimizing casualties to either side. I suspect that if the Alethi and Parshendi take an equal number of kills-per-cycle, the Parshendi are going to die off much sooner than the Alethi.

The only way the game progresses is via casualties.  Unless you meant "don't lynch until we have a confirmed elim, so that the scanners have more time to do their job, and somehow hope the Ghostbloods cooperate and keep things balanced".  Because I somehow doubt that the SoH killer, the Parshendi killer, or the Ghostbloods are going to stop their attacks.  (Unless you're volunteering for the Parshendi killer to stop, as that's the only one you might be able to affect.)

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

21 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

The only way the game progresses is via casualties.  Unless you meant "don't lynch until we have a confirmed elim, so that the scanners have more time to do their job, and somehow hope the Ghostbloods cooperate and keep things balanced".  Because I somehow doubt that the SoH killer, the Parshendi killer, or the Ghostbloods are going to stop their attacks.  (Unless you're volunteering for the Parshendi killer to stop, as that's the only one you might be able to affect.)

No, I'm not implying no-lynch. No-lynch isn't the best strategy to minimize casualties, because elimination is a game that features evil roles. In the interest of long-term avoidance of casualties, it makes perfect sense to lynch an evil, or even a suspected evil, if the suspicion is reasonably well-founded.

[Yitzi2]

5 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

No, I'm not implying no-lynch. No-lynch isn't the best strategy to minimize casualties, because elimination is a game that features evil roles. In the interest of long-term avoidance of casualties, it makes perfect sense to lynch an evil, or even a suspected evil, if the suspicion is reasonably well-founded.

Ah.  That makes more sense.

However: The best way to find evils would be to scan the Parshendi for Voidbringers.  It's fairly likely that the Voidbringer is in a Voidbringer form, so either role or alignment info would identify them, and we only have three plausible candidates (Jon is "cleared", you've done scanning, and Cloud protected you).  We wouldn't even have to lynch them quite yet if you're nervous about a Sons victory, just find them.

Edited July 20, 2017 by Yitzi2

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Okay I'd still like to point out the fact that if you let Jon live then you're letting a GHOSTBLOOD roam free! Why?! They want everyone dead...just sayin. Doesn't calculate in my books unless Drake knew that Jon wouldn't die when he made the "deal" with the village to try and get me lynched this cycle.  I still think he's a ghostie. But everyone is listening to his "claimed" scan of me, over acting on our dead "confirmed unaligned" Alethi (Orlok) scanner's results, who said that Jon was a ghost. *shrugs. Sounds an awful lot like ghost shenanigans to me. ugh.

[Yitzi2]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Okay I'd still like to point out the fact that if you let Jon live then you're letting a GHOSTBLOOD roam free! Why?! They want everyone dead...just sayin. Doesn't calculate in my books unless Drake knew that Jon wouldn't die when he made the "deal" with the village to try and get me lynched this cycle.  I still think he's a ghostie. But everyone is listening to his "claimed" scan of me, over acting on our dead "confirmed unaligned" Alethi (Orlok) scanner's results, who said that Jon was a ghost. *shrugs. Sounds an awful lot like ghost shenanigans to me. ugh.

Are you suggesting that both Jon and Drake are Ghostbloods?

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Just now, Yitzi2 said:

Are you suggesting that both Jon and Drake are Ghostbloods?

Yes I am. It looks that way to me since Jon survived the lynch and is still not being lynched again to get rid of a ghost. When I realized that Drake was the one pushing for the Alethi to agree to a "deal" where we first "lynch" Jon and then me or a son get lynched then I realized I must've been right about Drake all along. (cuz after he "claimed" to have scanned my alignment then he made that deal to get me lynched.) I don't think the "deal" is very fair seeing as how Jon just lost an extra life, and I already had one of those taken by having my shardplate busted in an attack. Jon is a ghost, and Drake doesn't seem very willing to get him killed. I'm pretty annoyed at this point, and would ask the rest of the Alethi would you please vote Jon this cycle....if you wanna lynch me next cycle *shrugs I guess it's either me or Drake tbh. It's his word against mine at this point, but I still think leaving a known ghost in the game is a bad idea no matter what you believe about me or Drake.

[Alvron he/him]

Vote Tally:
Jon (4): Elb, Brightness, Flash, Joe
Brightness (4): Drake, Cloud, Yitzi, Alv
Joe (1): Sart

Given that the SoH have had two chances of taking out Jon and have instead gone after Drake both times, it seems very clear to me that they are not interested in getting rid of a Ghostblood while there are still Parshendi around.  Keeping Jon alive is currently in the Parshendi's best interest as it keeps the lynch away from one of us.  Brightness however has been scanned as a SoH and is therefore a clear threat to the Parshendi.  Given that the Parshendi agreed to lynch Jon last cycle if it meant that we lynched Brightness this cycle and some members are trying to back out of that agreement tells me that the SoH are honorless.  And don't give me the argument that the Ghostblood are more of a threat.  They have lost a member while the SoH are still at full strength.  It is in their best interest to keep the sides even so as long as the SoH keep going after Drake, the GB will basically have to go after Alethi members for them to have the best chance of winning.  Lynching Brightness this cycle is in the SoH best interest as they can use their kill on Jon and the GB are more likely to attack a Parshendi.

Lynch Brightness and Blade Jon today so we can have a clean slate tomorrow for some actual discussion.

[Stick. she/her]

On 7/20/2017 at 9:43 AM, Sart said:

• 3 Ghostbloods
• 3 Sons of Honor
• 1 Voidbringer
• 4 Parshendi
• 6 Alethi

After rereading the game yesterday, I'm willing to bet that the two unknown ghostbloods are one of Joe and Crimsn [probably Joe] their voting patterns seem to say so [voting patterns are also weirdly similar], and Striker, taking a good look back at the previous cycles really gave me ghostblood vibes from him.

Because Jondesu voted on him, I'm pretty sure Sart's not a ghostblood, and I'm fairly certain he's not a Son.

The voidbringer is probably Cloud but that's just gut. I mean there's a decent chance it might be Daniyah 'cause she pretty much hasnt posted anything of substance and my reads on her are literally at null. @Daniyah Would you mind posting substantial stuff lol

I was kinda sure that El was a SoH but I guess Drake's scan says otherwise. I think the two unknown Sons of Honour might be Flash and Yitzi but that is purely gut. 

I'm voting Jond. I voted on him last cycle before drake proposed that deal about 'lynching jond yesterday but then lynching BR today', so I technically didnt agree to it and am therefore not honourless [no, this isnt a faction claim, I am not a SoH]. Also um somehow I missed this yesterday and am only seeing this now:

Quote

Alvron: Posted Wednesday at 02:44 AM · 

You, Stick and Brightness were all on the short list Len gave us for possible Decay kills. 

#hurt  

[Jondesu he/him]

Honestly, I don't think I really care if you lynch me now, so I'm just going to say it: I am a Ghostblood, I'm incredibly annoyed that someone killed off Megasif, but you're not going to get anything from me to find my remaining teammates.  Good luck, and I wish everyone the best in this game.

EDIT: Why not? Jondesu 

Edited July 21, 2017 by Jondesu

[Elbereth she/her]

On 7/19/2017 at 10:43 PM, Sart said:

Let's play the numbers game. We have 1 confirmed Ghostblood, Jondesu, with 2 probably still lurking in the Alethi camp. We have no Sons of Honor dead, so there's probably at least 3 of those alive. We have 2 Voidbringers dead, but there might be a third lurking about. That would leave us 4 unaligned Parshendi, and 6 unaligned Alethi. So, in conclusion,

• 3 Ghostbloods
• 3 Sons of Honor
• 1 Voidbringer
• 4 Parshendi
• 6 Alethi

That could be a problem if Alethi continue to die. What I don't want to happen is the scenario where the Parshendi take out the Sons of Honor and Ghostbloods, and then get the easy win through killing the rest of the Alethi. It hopefully won't happen, but I'm cautious of it.

In terms of today's voting, it's not looking good for either party. If we suppose the Parshendi voting block holds, then that's 5 votes on a Son of Honor. Obviously, the Sons of Honor want another target, and a revealed Ghostblood looks pretty nice. So that becomes 3 votes on Jondesu, 5 on Brightness. The remaining Ghostbloods don't want Jondesu to die, so they'll vote on the other target, in this case, Brightness. That makes 8 votes on Brightness, 3 on Jondesu. If all of the remaining Alethi voted on Jondesu, they could theoretically lynch him. However, if even 1 Alethi votes on Brightness, the Alethi won't be able to come back from that. Support for Jondesu's lynch will dry up, and the Sons of Honor might flip to Brightness in order to stay in the crowd. No one gains any information from the lynch, Jondesu survives another day, and the Sons of Honor lose a member.

So... yeah. The Sons of Honor might have vote manipulation, which could make the Jondesu lynch slightly easier. It would require nearly unanimous support among the unaligned Alethi, but it could potentially be possible. Unfortunately, a couple of Alethi are mostly inactive, so getting enough support would be challenging, especially since it would be breaking the trust we have with the Parshendi.

I'm not going to vote for either candidate. I'm not voting for Jondesu. Without vote manipulation, that means the votes would be tied, even if all of the Alethi ganged up. Even with vote manipulation, it would take a miracle to lynch Jondesu. I won't vote for Brightness either. The Sons of Honor kill helps keep the gaming from going lopsided towards the Parshendi, and I just don't like lynching an Alethi.

I propose an alternative. We try to lynch an Alethi Ghostblood. Risky? Yes, but it's better than the other two options in front of me. Plus, it would help actually generate discussion. Even if the town decides to lynch Brightness, at least the voting could tell us a little bit about alignment. It could also allow Brightness to survive, which would mean another vote in Alethi hands. Worst case scenario, we lynch an innocent Alethi, which gives us a huge disadvantage for peace. Another scenario, we end up lynching a different Son of Honor, which gets the Parshendi what they wanted in the first place. Best case scenario, we lynch another Ghostblood, which neutralizes the threat they pose for a couple of turns.

I'm curious to see how this plays out. Joe, I think you are an Alethi Ghostblood. You voted on Orlok, and then Brightness, but you never voted for Jondesu. Would you like to defend yourself?

...um? You're making some very conservative guesses there. Personally, my is more like 5 Sons (because the Sons should have roughly the same number of lives as the Parshendi or at least close, and if there's three Voidbringers that's nine lives). I'm also very paranoid still that there's more than one Voidbringer left, and potentially 4 Alethi Ghostbloods, but I'll ignore those for now. 

You're also making the assumption that the Ghostbloods are willing to vote to save Jondesu at risk of revealing themselves. 

In this case, though, even if there are significantly more Sons, it doesn't really matter. The numbers remain the same - 5 Parshendi/Voidbringer (of whom Dani is practically inactive), 3 Ghostbloods (one of whom is inactive, though he might be able to come on and vote) make 8, 6 active. Compared to 9 Sons/Alethi, of whom Straw is inactive. In theory Jondesu is lynchable even if another player votes somewhere else, but 7 do have to vote the same and be convinced that Jondesu is a better choice. Which... doesn't seem likely at this point. >> 

23 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

 

Stormfather. On average, it looks like a given Alethi is able to survive nearly as many attacks as one of the Parshendi is, in addition to the advantage of numbers.  

In principle, this seems like a reasonable proposition.

But I think we may want to prioritize minimizing casualties to either side. I suspect that if the Alethi and Parshendi take an equal number of kills-per-cycle, the Parshendi are going to die off much sooner than the Alethi.

Not true. One, we won't take the same number of kills per cycle unless the Ghostbloods switch or we actually start using the lynch on Parshendi. Ghostbloods and Parshendi kills both hit us (and potentially Voidbringer), and only the Sons hit the Parshendi and the lynch goes who-knows-where. 

Secondly, we have 11 lives. This isn't counting Shardplate and protection, but I'm guessing most of it has already been used up at this point. 

You've 6 players. Jon only has one life, and Cloud, and Drake, and whoever protected Len, which makes 8 lives. Plus the Shardbearer and Stormform makes 10. And since we're apparently about to lose Brightness, that takes the Alethi down to exactly equal with the Parshendi (and yes, you can argue that Jon isn't a Parshendi. In which case neither are our two Alethi Ghostbloods). 

If we want to keep casualties to each side equal, then a Parshendi should be lynched every cycle. 

19 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

Ah.  That makes more sense.

However: The best way to find evils would be to scan the Parshendi for Voidbringers.  It's fairly likely that the Voidbringer is in a Voidbringer form, so either role or alignment info would identify them, and we only have three plausible candidates (Jon is "cleared", you've done scanning, and Cloud protected you).  We wouldn't even have to lynch them quite yet if you're nervous about a Sons victory, just find them.

I can actually confirm they're currently in Voidbringer form, by the way. I was roleblocked last cycle. (Yay. >>) The scan will come through before they change, so this is one cycle on which you can be certain they'll be in a recognisable form. So Parshendi, if you truly want to catch the Voidbringer in your midst, this cycle is the cycle to do so. 

15 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Yes I am. It looks that way to me since Jon survived the lynch and is still not being lynched again to get rid of a ghost. When I realized that Drake was the one pushing for the Alethi to agree to a "deal" where we first "lynch" Jon and then me or a son get lynched then I realized I must've been right about Drake all along. (cuz after he "claimed" to have scanned my alignment then he made that deal to get me lynched.) I don't think the "deal" is very fair seeing as how Jon just lost an extra life, and I already had one of those taken by having my shardplate busted in an attack. Jon is a ghost, and Drake doesn't seem very willing to get him killed. I'm pretty annoyed at this point, and would ask the rest of the Alethi would you please vote Jon this cycle....if you wanna lynch me next cycle *shrugs I guess it's either me or Drake tbh. It's his word against mine at this point, but I still think leaving a known ghost in the game is a bad idea no matter what you believe about me or Drake.

Disagreed strongly that Drake's a second Parshendi Ghostblood. It'd be interesting, but I doubt it's the case. 

15 hours ago, Alvron said:

Vote Tally:
Jon (6): Elb, Brightness, Flash, Joe, Stick, Jondesu
Brightness (4): Drake, Cloud, Yitzi, Alv
Joe (1): Sart

Given that the SoH have had two chances of taking out Jon and have instead gone after Drake both times, it seems very clear to me that they are not interested in getting rid of a Ghostblood while there are still Parshendi around.  Keeping Jon alive is currently in the Parshendi's best interest as it keeps the lynch away from one of us.  Brightness however has been scanned as a SoH and is therefore a clear threat to the Parshendi.  Given that the Parshendi agreed to lynch Jon last cycle if it meant that we lynched Brightness this cycle and some members are trying to back out of that agreement tells me that the SoH are honorless.  And don't give me the argument that the Ghostblood are more of a threat.  They have lost a member while the SoH are still at full strength.  It is in their best interest to keep the sides even so as long as the SoH keep going after Drake, the GB will basically have to go after Alethi members for them to have the best chance of winning.  Lynching Brightness this cycle is in the SoH best interest as they can use their kill on Jon and the GB are more likely to attack a Parshendi.

Lynch Brightness and Blade Jon today so we can have a clean slate tomorrow for some actual discussion.

Disagreed that the Sons are honorless - only one person made that agreement, and he's kept to it. (I don't know why it was made in the first place, honestly? Jon was getting lynched regardless because he needs to be? But it was.) He certainly doesn't speak for me. 

The Ghostbloods are more of a threat to us. I completely agree that they're less so to you. Because you're not the one getting killed by them. 

Very much disagreed that it's in the Alethi interest to kill BR so that the GBs stop going after us. Because one, I doubt they will regardless, two, it's in the Sons' interest to kill Jon just as much as it is in yours and for the same reasons (keeping him alive keeps one of you off the table), and three if she is telling the truth about her role it gives us a chance to find GBs by attacking them. 

Also, yay Jondesu.  That was probably not strategically sound of you, but it's very helpful! 

[Dani she/her]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

The voidbringer is probably Cloud but that's just gut. I mean there's a decent chance it might be Daniyah 'cause she pretty much hasnt posted anything of substance and my reads on her are literally at null. @Daniyah Would you mind posting substantial stuff lol

I don't have anything of substance to say, . 

I will, however, vote for Brightness to be lynched this cycle. I'd rather a SoH gets lynched.

 

[Yitzi2]

On 7/20/2017 at 1:43 AM, Sart said:

That could be a problem if Alethi continue to die. What I don't want to happen is the scenario where the Parshendi take out the Sons of Honor and Ghostbloods, and then get the easy win through killing the rest of the Alethi. It hopefully won't happen, but I'm cautious of it.

Of course, if we took out the last Voidbringer (assuming there's only 1), the Parshendi would be unable to win by taking out the Alethi.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Honestly, I don't think I really care if you lynch me now, so I'm just going to say it: I am a Ghostblood, I'm incredibly annoyed that someone killed off Megasif, but you're not going to get anything from me to find my remaining teammates.  Good luck, and I wish everyone the best in this game.

EDIT: Why not? Jondesu 

@Jondesu come on, vote on Brightness 

We'll kill you tomorrow regardless, but I'd rather the Sons didn't have victory handed to them on a silver platter, if it's all the same.

[Sart he/him]

1 minute ago, Drake Marshall said:

@Jondesu come on, vote on Brightness 

We'll kill you tomorrow regardless, but I'd rather the Sons didn't have victory handed to them on a silver platter, if it's all the same.

How are you planning on doing that? Through the lynch, or through one of your kills?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

2 minutes ago, Sart said:

How are you planning on doing that? Through the lynch, or through one of your kills?

My kills? I don't have any real control over any kills in this game. All I have is an aptitude for talking a lot. And the good fortune to still be alive, despite multiple understandable attempts to silence me.

In any case, I don't really care how that is accomplished. I would support lynching Jondesu next cycle if somebody doesn't blade him, but it would be more convenient for everybody if somebody did blade him.

[Seonid he/him]

PSA:

I will again be busy this Friday evening, so the cycle will end at normal time, but the new cycle will start 2-3 hours late or so. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[Sart he/him]

13 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

My kills? I don't have any real control over any kills in this game. All I have is an aptitude for talking a lot. And the good fortune to still be alive, despite multiple understandable attempts to silence me.

In any case, I don't really care how that is accomplished. I would support lynching Jondesu next cycle if somebody doesn't blade him, but it would be more convenient for everybody if somebody did blade him.

I meant one of the Parshendi kills, either Voidbringer or Shardbearer. Both sides are in a form of the Prisoner's Dilemma. Both Alethi and Parshendi want Jondesu dead, but if one side doesn't attack Jondesu, they get an advantage over the other. What ends up happening is no one kills the Ghostblood, and we're stuck in a less than optimal, but logical, solution.

So let's operate under the assumption that no one bothers to hit Jondesu. Would you be willing to enter into a pact with me? In exchange for me voting for Brightness this cycle, you must vote for Jondesu next cycle, presuming he is alive. That means you don't get to vote on an Alethi Ghostblood, or another Son of Honor, or even the Son of Honor Shardbearer. Would that be acceptable?

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

I meant one of the Parshendi kills, either Voidbringer or Shardbearer. Both sides are in a form of the Prisoner's Dilemma. Both Alethi and Parshendi want Jondesu dead, but if one side doesn't attack Jondesu, they get an advantage over the other. What ends up happening is no one kills the Ghostblood, and we're stuck in a less than optimal, but logical, solution.

So let's operate under the assumption that no one bothers to hit Jondesu. Would you be willing to enter into a pact with me? In exchange for me voting for Brightness this cycle, you must vote for Jondesu next cycle, presuming he is alive. That means you don't get to vote on an Alethi Ghostblood, or another Son of Honor, or even the Son of Honor Shardbearer. Would that be acceptable?

You should understand that I may not be alive to vote on Jondesu next cycle. Fair warning.

But yes, I would absolutely accept those terms.

[Dani she/her]

50 minutes ago, Sart said:

So let's operate under the assumption that no one bothers to hit Jondesu. Would you be willing to enter into a pact with me? In exchange for me voting for Brightness this cycle, you must vote for Jondesu next cycle, presuming he is alive. That means you don't get to vote on an Alethi Ghostblood, or another Son of Honor, or even the Son of Honor Shardbearer. Would that be acceptable?

I'm up for it. Can't speak for others, but I definitely would vote on Jondesu.