Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[STINK]

Still not sure on who else to analyse. Anyone who has been having multiple people argue about them? Or is it just Wilson/DC.

[Nyali]

I think analyzing Wilson/DC is not really productive right now. There is just too much noise from the playstyle differences and the deliberate attempts to mislead each other. If you are looking for suggestions on who to look at, mine would be Yaf, Joe, or Twei.

Btw, we seem to be killing the bottom of the player list first. Trelagist, Elk, and Joe are my only buffer against the Curse of the Bottom

[Mark IV]

You may have just found out the sole criterion of the deaths that have been occurring!

inb4 I get voted on because of this...

Edited May 1, 2016 by Mark IV

[Trelagist]

So Vron has a Grandbow? That would explain a lot.

[Nyali]

So Vron has a Grandbow? That would explain a lot.

 

Where is this coming from? Did I miss something?

[Trelagist]

It's from an earlier game, you didn't miss anything. Your reaction does warrant some analysis (in the broader sense of the word) though.

[Nyali]

It's from an earlier game, you didn't miss anything. Your reaction does warrant some analysis (in the broader sense of the word) though.

 

I'm sorry, but your posts are not making any sense to me.

[TheMightyLopen]

So Vron has a Grandbow? That would explain a lot.

 

Where is this coming from? Did I miss something?

 

He's referencing QF14, in which Alvron went around stabbing inactives(whoever didn't post during the Cycle was killed without mercy(he ended up killing 3 eliminators this way)). The Grandbow kills don't fit that description though. The first Shardblade kill was sorta similar I guess, in that phattemer hadn't posted(very much, if at all, I can't remember), but the Grandbow kills have both been on active players.

 

Also, a word of advice, don't try to figure out who has a kill item in the thread. Not only is there a thief, but it's not information we want out in the open.

[Trelagist]

Well, Orlok didn't really post anything game-relevant for the most part, but whatever you say, I guess.

EDIT: Welp, I'm an idiot.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Trelagist

[Mailliw73]

Due to me messing up the Order of Actions, Artifabrians happen before deaths.

[STINK]

Got more time to do stuff. Woop.

 

 

Yafeshan:

 

 

1. Says that random D1 votes are for pokes. Hopes artifabs makes spanreeds and gives to experienced players.

2. Asks if all deaths were done by GB or all items.

3. ‘Communication problem worries me’. Hurts people who are good at PMs. Suggests that nobles are killing to get items.

4. Asks if Thief can start with kill items. Same with GB and Shardblade.

5. (About PMs being from GBs) Says that he would think that PM starter was a Noble trying to help communication rather than them being a GB.

6. Apologises for previous post (not sure if it was 5 or a hidden one). Asks what people think about HS’ list.

7. Votes Lopen for him asking about who will get the soulcaster. ‘If he was GB, he would have already knew it’. Says that it could be a misdirection. Is happy with Grandbow user.

8. Responds to Lopen (who said that he wants to know about the soulcaster because it is powerful) by saying that he was just pointing out that it could be a misdirection.

9. Retracts vote on Lopen. Votes LUNA for how dead eliminator defended her.

 

 

Main thing that pops out to me here is when he said that he would think that a PM starter was a Noble. Either he misunderstood why everyone thought a Spanreed holder could be a GB or he was trying to get people to think that they wouldn't be, so his fellow GB could start a PM. One option makes me think he is town, the other GB.

 

Another thing is his vote on Lopen, which mainly seemed to be throwing mistrust on Lopen for some reason. Again, this is something that could be seen as something that a GB would do, as if they know Lopen is good then they might want to make it less likely that he is trusted.

 

Oh, and while I think of it, his suggestion that people were killing for items could quite easily be used for an excuse for if he got a Kill role and started killing people (which was possible at the time because of Orlok). Obviously this doesn't account for if he is town, but eh.

 

The Only Joe:

 

Due to his multiple posts in multiple posts, I may have missed some posts. I don’t think I did, but I apologise if I did.

 

 

1. Votes for TinyStrawMan. Says it is the second time his ‘die’ have voted for someone who already has a vote.

2. Responds to TSM saying he will only vote those voted. Says that D1 votes are to get people talking, and a second vote just adds pressure to the voter and the voted. Says that others may have slipped through the cracks because of it. Is suspicious of TSM.

3. Asks if voting for Mailliw is equivalent to voting for yourself.

4. That American Thing.

5. That American Thing.

6. That American Thing.

7. That American Thing.

8. Tries to stop That American Thing.

9. Asks if Araris was in contact with anyone through PMs.

10. Responds to Mark’s vote on him. Talks about Spanreeds. Says that the Noble’s should pass it to someone so that they aren’t suspected.

11. Something about if no PMs are made then a Ghostblood got the Spanreed. (think Context is needed here)

12. Talks about his plan being a win/win. Suggests that Alv is a shardbearer because a silent player died.

13. Talks about how in a previous game Alv killed silent players.

14. Asks if someone can be lynched with one vote.

15. Says that people would assume a PM starter is a GB because the GBs killed a Spanreed holder.

16. Asks Nyali why he is being seen as evil.

17. Tells someone it’s night so no votes.

18. Votes for Lopen. Compares his playstyle this game to MR13. Asks others to read MR13 to get a feel of Joe as an eliminator. Says he will be more thorough with Lopen after sleeping.

19. Retracts vote on Lopen. Says he is still slightly suspicious.

20. Votes for LUNA because she was defended by Orlok. Says he trust’s Nyali.

21. DC Joke. Says he voted for reversers but none were used.

 

 

Out of the three in this post, he has posted the most.

 

First off, his suspicion against TSM seemed quite bloodthirsty to me, as if he was quite happy to jump on someone for being the second vote. I mean, he could have explained without voting for him. Add on that he didn't retract the vote but stayed suspicious of TSM seems like a useful thing for an eliminator, what with not having to explain a second vote or anything.

 

The whole spanreed situation is something I'm not going to go into, because I don't fully understand it either and don't want to misunderstand something.

 

His question about why he is being seen as evil is okay with me, as I know that I'd do it, if I was town or GB. 

 

The most interesting thing though is his vote on Lopen, and his linking of a previous game. This is because of how he used it to explain his vote, and also used it to show how he is innocent. But, thankfully I specced the first few days of the Mafia Championships, and because someone linked a previous game there, people in the doc naturally discussed it. So I have an opinion of it as soon as I see it, and one based on the context  

 

Linking Past Games in General: Linking a past game is something that I see as something that an eliminator is more inclined to think of doing rather than a townie. As when you are a townie, your main goal is convincing other people that you are while you know that you are, so all your posts should have no second meanings or anything that could mean you are evil, but should all be able to be used to prove your innocence, while still feeling natural. Yes, this is the main goal of the eliminators as well, but they are more likely to look for a game where they were innocent and link that as the posts in that game would be more genuine rather than the posts they make while being evil.

 

With Context: Sadly for Joe, I still think my main point about how eliminators are more likely to do it is true. Only instead of linking games where he was good, he's linked one where he is evil, to make the posts in this game more genuine. The main thing about the context is how he also used it to throw suspicion on Lopen. Something that I feel both Yafe and Joe have in common. So if one turns out to be evil, then I'll be looking at the other. 

 

Oh, and also he says he'll be more thorough and come back to the thread about if he actually thinks that Lopen is evil, and then says that after thinking about it he doesn't feel so. The main thing here is that I would have liked to see Joe write a post that is more in detail anyway, as it's quite easy to say 'I searched through all his posts and he looks good to me' when you are evil as you don't really have to look. So yeah, I understand if you don't have time for posts like that but they would still be appreciated (coming from me I know haha)

 

Twei:

 

 

1. Talks about RNG votes. Votes for Lopen. Says he did a throwaway post.

2. Retracts vote on Lopen after quoting a blue text post he made. Votes for Strawman after he edited a post to contain different content and didn’t change it back. And how he voted for someone who had already been voted.

3. Suggests that artifabs should make painrials and spanreeds. Talks about how Strawman had a reverser.

4. Discusses usefulness of items that artifabs could make. Says that alerters and emotion bracelets are good too. Talks about history.

5. Says PMs are super useful. Says the game could have started without spanreeds.

6. Says that DC day heiring removes threat from his voice. (don’t really understand that) Says that two kill actions for the GB is possible, but not three. Talks about how Araris only made one post about LUNA and Kynedath.

7. Talks about someone’s death cry (it was corrections and stuff). Talks about how the GBs might make information items then make kill items to make better usage of kill items. Says that Elbereth is in contact with a spanreed holder that Twei is also in contact with. Asks about emotion bracelet (which Kas answered)

8. Talks about death cry. Says they were wary of Wilson at beginning of Wilson/DC thing. Says that DC misrepresented things from it. Says that wording of DC’s post implies that he made the plan that was shot down by Wilson, though Wilson said she made it. Says that it isn’t consistent with his ‘fake-suspicion-see-what-happens’ tactic. Says that the ‘attempted redirect’ in a death cry could mean that it failed (this was more agreeing with Nyali about it though)

 

 

Unlike Yafe and Joe's votes on Lopen, I'm okay with the one done by Twei. It was retracted with a reason and was voted with a reason.

 

The vote on Strawman is also pretty valid in my eyes, as changing the content of posts is a big no-no. And there's nothing like the threat of death.

 

Suggestions about Artifabs is pretty useful for any artifabs that weren't really thinking about it, but I think it is also something that could have easily been used by Orlok had he not been killed early. But seeing as it wouldn't be that hard for the eliminators to think of it I'll take the viewpoint that Twei was just trying to help people.

 

Twei talking about Araris' post about LUNA and Kynedath makes me trust them more, as it shows to me that they've done research on it (most people only talked about Araris talking about LUNA, while Twei also mentioned Kynedath) (or at least I think that)

 

Twei asking Elbereth if they have the same Spanreed contact is interesting, as it's something that I don't think an eliminator would do, what with being able to trust the townies straight away, this kind of checking is quite risky for everyone involved so again I'll put a point in Twei's innocent box.

 

Won't talk about the Wilson/DC thing. Honestly just think it's a massive pile of 'he said she said' that the eliminators may have used to distract everyone. (Anyone wanna look at who talked about it the most?)

 

So yeah, end of post. It's the night, so I can't vote. I can ask for protection though

[Nyali]

Thanks for the analysis, Stink!

 

I haven't gone back to check, but I probably discussed the Wilson/DC thing the most, but that was because I was trying to reconcile the contradictory things they both said to me in PMs about the other.

 

 

I'd also like protection, but I think so would just about everyone, especially the most active people xD

[STINK]

 

I'd also like protection, but I think so would just about everyone, especially the most active people xD

 

Won't disagree with ya there

[Alvron]

So Vron has a Grandbow? That would explain a lot.

I have a Grandbow?  Maill, why didn't you tell me I have a bow?  I could've been killing people!!

 

 

Sorry for not posting during the day round, weekends are when I'm busiest, I barely had time to read everything.  But then I really had nothing to say anyway so I probably wouldn't have posted even if I had the time.

[yafeshan]

Thanks for analysis stink. Some people around here may know from my only eliminator experience(lg19) that I am very bad at lying. My only vote on Lopen was just a hunch which I removed later and voted Luna which was wrong but based on meaningful reason at that time. I always worry about minimal communication in every game. What is wrong with that

[STINK]

oh man now I want to analyse more people. But I gotta sleep. But the analysing. Next 'targets' are Wilson and DC, for the ultimate showdown. If I don't die.

[yafeshan]

I believe DC is good. Didn't he chose Luna as heir? Why would he do that if he was GB

[Alvron]

I believe DC is good. Didn't he chose Luna as heir? Why would he do that if he was GB

Because he wanted you to think the way you are.  Or maybe he was planning to change his heir during the night.  Or maybe he wanted a way for him not to vote, thus allowing him to give his suspicions without having to commit to a lynch that could look bad if it turned out to be a noble with a Blade or Bow.  Or any number of reasons that we can't think of.  The only way to know for sure is for DC to die, however I don't think he will be down with that.

[DeathClutch19]

Because he wanted you to think the way you are.  Or maybe he was planning to change his heir during the night.  Or maybe he wanted a way for him not to vote, thus allowing him to give his suspicions without having to commit to a lynch that could look bad if it turned out to be a noble with a Blade or Bow.  Or any number of reasons that we can't think of.  The only way to know for sure is for DC to die, however I don't think he will be down with that.

So I totally am not down with Dying. However, I'll just say that Luna and I are friends and that may have had something to do with it.

[Mailliw73]

Turn is over! Writeup will be up soon.

[Mailliw73]

Day 4: Death's Herald

 

Geran lined up his shot. He had waited all night for his intended target to stumble onto the street below him. It was almost dawn and Geran was tired, but this was it. He had one shot at this; whoever gave him this Grandbow had only given him one arrow to go along with it.

 

Ready, aim, fi- Geran’s fingers slipped off the bowstring as he pitched head-first over the edge of the roof, large fletchings sticking out of his spine. His arrow had hit his target, but missed their face, instead hitting their Shardplate.

 

 

His target glassy-eyed before he hit the ground, Stink smiled. One down. He packed up his Bow and his arrows and left his sniping position to go check Geran’s body just to be sure. A prime archer didn’t let their arrows go to waste. If Geran wasn’t dead, Stink’d have to use the long hunting knife he kept in his boot.

 

Upon reaching the corpse, Stink verified that Geran was, indeed, dead through and through. Good. Stink hated missing his shots. His weapons all bundled into a case on his back, he returned home, hunting done for the night.

 

 

Ebony readied her final arrow. Montnog had stolen his last item. The thief was the last of Ebony’s list of victims. First, Hellscythe the Noble. Then came Subadon, the Ghostblood. Now, Montnog, a Thief, would complete her checklist. Mumbling to the Stormfather, she aimed for his eye. Loosing the arrow, she felled her first thief. Justice, served equal and fairly, was fulfilled in her Bow.

 

Finished serving out justice, Ebony gave her bow to the flames and she prayed to the Stormfather, asking him to accept her judgements.

 

Senna gagged. Her scribe, Sani, was dead on the floor just outside Senna’s own room. There was a mark on his forehead. Three diamonds, overlapping. Ghostbloods. The Ghostbloods had done this. Storm them. Storm all of them! Senna wept over her dead friend till the sun rose over the Shattered Plains. Tonight, Death’s Herald had come to her door and tonight, it had stolen her friend.

Geran(yafeshan) was shot with a Grandbow. He was a Noble with a Pain Knife.

Montnog Spot(Elkanah) was shot with a Grandbow. He was a Thief with a Spanreed and a Reverser. 

Sani Joslin(Joe) was killed by the Ghostbloods. She was a Noble with a Shardblade and Painrial.

Someone else was shot with a Grandbow, but didn't die.

 

Player List:

• Elbereth: Tintallë-Probably a goddess, definitely a ninja
• Phattemer: Axies-In denial Noble
• Master_Elodin: Eobard Thawne-Reverse-Flash Noble
• DeathClutch: Itachi Uchiha-Some Japanese kid
• Alvron: Alv-Badchull Halfborn
• ThatTinyStrawMan: He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named Noble
• Kynedath: Kayden Ianlynn-Definitely arrogant
• little wilson: Brightlady Kenara-Looking for body parts. Definitely British.
• AliasSheep: Kelen Taldar
• Zas678: Kaythar
• Twelfthrootoftwo: Teialan
• Macen: Ace
• Yafeshan: Geran Noble
• Mark: Mayelek
• Kasimir: Karnan-Not Khas. Nope.
• TheMightyLopen: Loopen-Just a wee bit crazy
• Seonid: Senna Idian
• Burnt Spaghetti: Ebony Ghetti
• Stink
• Nyali: Brightness Arisia
• Orlok: Subadon-Probably secretly American Ghostblood
• TheOnlyJoe: Sani Joslin-Traitor to 'Murica Noble
• Elkanah: Montnog Spot Thief
• Trelagist
• Araris Valerian: Ardel Noble
• Hellscythe: Hellscythe Noble
• Luna: Luna Arryn Noble
• Silver Dragon: Star Thief Noble

 

Edited June 2, 2016 by Mailliw73

[Mailliw73]

Hang on. Made a mistake.

[DeathClutch19]

Burnt actually didn't die??

Edited May 2, 2016 by DeathClutch19

[Nyali]

Wow my reads are off... =\ I had Yaf and Joe listed. Meh. Elimination games are hard with total strangers.

[little wilson]

Well, I think I just found out where my/StrawMan's Reverser went to. Thanks, Elk, for thieving that from me. 

 

And the Ghostbloods killed Joe. Who had a Shardblade. Let's hope they got the Painrial instead.

 

I'm guessing that Spanreed Elk had was yours, DC? It looks to me like he stole it and then died with it. I mention this because my one-cycle Spanreed was stolen from me two nights ago, but it wouldn't be this one that Elk has, since mine would've disappeared, and I already asked Maill if that spanreed counted for the thief win con, and he said yes. So I don't see why he would've stolen another spanreed. This means there's another thief out there.