Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Seonid he/him]

So your punishing me for pushing the village to actually do something? Good to know..

 

No - I'm picking the way out of the mess you've got us in that helps the village most. I don't want to lynch you - I really do think you're a villager. But I don't want to lynch Wilson either - I really do think she's a villager. Our PM has made me mostly convinced and that's only increased as the cycle has gone on. I still have lingering paranoia because Wilson can be a storming good manipulator when she's evil, but I have enough evidence to presume her innocence until and unless counter evidence is presented.

 

Honestly - I wanted to lynch either Trelagist or Elbereth. Both are steadily pushing their way up my suspicion charts, and getting a confirmed read would be really nice. Especially Trel - I find his reasoning for attacking Wilson to be weak in the extreme, and has a reasonable chance of being a cover story for an Eliminator that really wanted to try and get rid of her.

 

But that's not really an option anymore.

 

EDIT: Tone - my statement at the end sounded more frustrated than I actually am, and could have been construed as a personal attack. The meaning has remained unchanged.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Seonid

[Mark IV he/him]

Well, we could hold a secondary vote in orange for a shard bearer to kill tonight. Sure, the kill will take place a turn late, but we don't have to solely focus on this DC /Wilson issue.

EDIT: DC, I hope there's no hard feelings. Your death would confirm a few things for me. I'd rather not reveal them right now though.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Mark IV

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

How has the village not been doing things? We've had a lynch every day this game. Which is more than can be said for certain other games recently. There have been at least three kills every night, including N1, and that's definitely not the work of the eliminators alone. What do you define as doing something if we haven't been all this time? To my mind, you've only forced us to make a choice between bad and worse.

If I were to vote, I'd vote for you, DC, because Wilson's play seems more useful to the game. But I will choose to abstain, I think, because what I'd really like to happen is for neither of you to be lynched today. Probably won't happen, I'm aware. But it's what I think should happen, and I'll stand by that.

We were lynching people with two votes...that's nothing, and not to mention we lynched villagers

[Elbereth she/her]

Do you know how many times I had to do a "no one dies" writeup in LG19? 2 days in a row (first two of the game, no less), 2 nights, and then another day. 5 turnovers where nothing happened. Not to mention that the lynch was almost exclusively used to kill near-confirmed evil players and not actual suspicions. And at no point were there more than three player deaths in a turn. Which happened once. Sure, this is a bigger game, but still. We're doing much more than in this game.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

EDIT: Maill, does the death cry have to be in English? I know a language that might be a bit more compact. Probably more compact. I'm not sure. Or would that be cheating?

Nope. You just get 200 characters.

[Mark IV he/him]

We could probably use Japanese. I don't know Japanese, but they've got compact characters in kanji. I know it wouldn't be right to write a whole sentence in kanji, but it's an idea.

Trelagist for reasons stated above. Your attempt to kill Wilson is quite suspicious to me atleast and Seonid too, if I'm not wrong. Anyways, I know these are not my original thoughts, but I encourage people to use this secondary lynch.

EDIT: for anyone interested, the hex code for orange I've used here is ff9944

Edited May 3, 2016 by Mark IV

[Trelagist]

I'm fully expecting to die tonight anyway. Curse of the Bottom.

[Mark IV he/him]

@Kas, about using kill role as a second lynch. We did do this in LG15b, but it wasn't terribly effective. Still, it may be a good idea just to gather more opinions from players, as well as test out the kill roles to see if they follow(loosely) what we suggest, which could give us more of an indication on their alignment. So I'm cool with this idea! I don't have any suggestions at this point though.

~Lopen

Emphasis mine

Found this while re-reading the thread. I guess this is why no one really uses the vigilante kill as a lynch. But, I must say, this situation is different. We aren't using the vigilante kill as a secondary lynch just cause we want to. Regardless of whether the vigilante kills the intended target or not, we will still have lynch discussion that was stopped by the DC/Wilson duel.

This lynch discussion, and I dare you to correct me, is very important any turn of the game, and twice on the first day. So, I again ask anyone online to publicly express your suspicions and vote.

Edited for emphasis.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Mark IV

[Seonid he/him]

Well, I've already expressed my suspicions on Trelagist. The most frustrating thing about this duel is that there is a full day left in the cycle - so discussion about the duel, whether it is useful or not, whether DC is an Eliminator or a villager doing something less-than-completely-helpful, whether Wilson is evil, and which of the two we should actually get rid of, if any, is going to dominate the last 24 hours of discussion.

 

Even if we try to put pressure on other people we have suspicions of, there isn't any real force behind it, because the kill roles may or may not follow suit, and the lynch has been arbitrarily restricted to two people.

[Mark IV he/him]

IMO, you did follow suit. Albeit with little confidence, but you did.*claps*

As I said, regardless of whether the intended target is killed, we'd still have discussion. And, out of about 4 kill roles, and potentially probably more, you're telling me not one will have no other plans?

But, I've done what I can. I encourage other to follow. Don't see whether someone else has voted in orange. It'll happen one by one. Don't check to see whether everyone is actually following the orange voting. Speak your part, and I'll guarantee people will follow. But first, you must speak.

Wow. I feel like an orator here.

Either way, the decision is now completely yours. Whether you want a potential lynch or you want to be stuck killing one two villagers.

Edited for clarity.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Mark IV

[STINK he/him]

Yo this duel just kinda seems forced to me tbh.

Like, it's similar to when an eliminator reveals to distract and basically nullify the Lynch for a day but DC can duel so it's actually a mechanic.

Basically, if he really thinks that Wilson is evil then he shouldn't have to duel anyone but instead use the power of words to lynch people.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Well, I've reviewed each player, and I'm gonna vote for DC. He's actually not posted as much as I thought he had, and much of those posts are about Wilson, and not much else. I still feel like he's probably a villager, and if he is, it sounds like he's tunneling on Wilson. His case against her isn't much, and certainly not enough that I think it warranted him forcing a duel.

 

Now, I'm not sure if Wilson is a villager, because besides DC's suspicion against Wilson, there's also Burnts theory, but it's hard to say why Burnt was targeted, if it was random or if there was more meaning behind her being the target of Joe's redirect(which has not been talked about very much. Who was in contact with him? Did he tell anyone he had a Shardblade? I kinda wish he hadn't done his Death Cry so fast. It's possible he was targeted by a Ghostblood Spy(if they have one) or a Ghostblood with an Emotion Bracelet(if they have one) and that's how they knew he had a Shardblade. But it would be nice if we could hear from the players who were in contact with him. He said he trusted Wilson, Nyali, DC and Zas, and Wilson claimed to have not been told about him having a Shardblade(according to Burnt I think?). DC, Zas and Nyali, were any of you aware of Joe having a Shardblade? Did anyone besides Wilson have a PM with him?), and Twei has something that she said is pretty good evidence that Wilson is village. So, even though I don't really trust Twei, I feel like she probably would have something at least, because faking evidence about someone this early to keep them from being lynched doesn't sound like a smart idea(whereas in MR10 when she faked evidence to keep herself from being lynched, the game was all but over). I am curious about what the "reasonably good evidence" is that makes her think Wilson is village though. Any chance you could elaborate on that Twei?

 

Anyways, I hate trying to analyse Wilson, because I've never been able to tell either way with her in the few games I've actually played with her, but according to a few players who are probably more familiar with her, she seems to be doing things like a village Wilson would, and there may be some factual evidence pointing to her being a villager(which, for me, is the thing I like to rely on the most for deciding lynches, because my gut just ain't very good), so I have to agree that lynching her is probably a bad idea.

 

As for the "vigilante kill lynch" thing, I'll stick my vote back onto Trelagist, with my questions from earlier still applying. Who do you think is suspicious/trustworthy? What is your opinion about DC or Wilson?

[Mark IV he/him]

See?!

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Any chance you could elaborate on that Twei?

Actually, looking over the thread again, more has been revealed than I remembered. So maybe. I have a question first, though.

 

I had heard that someone redirected Orlok's role action target to Trelagist on the night he died.

I assume you heard this from Wilson (as did I)? When did she tell you - during the night or after the day had started?

[Trelagist]

BTW Wil also told me the same thing last night (in which I attacked her) and asked me what I had received.

[Trelagist]

Edit: Accidental double post.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Trelagist

[Nyali she/her]

DC, did you get your Shardblade from Joe? If you were Joe's heir, there's a 50% chance you did get it from him. If not, then you haven't used your shardblade all game, right? We've only seen one shardblade kill a night, and didn't Joe say he did those in his deathcry?

 

I don't want to vote since both of the targets are on my trust list. Of course, my trust list is highly suspect given how badly my suspicion list has been totally wrong. So, for now, I will instead declare Stink to be my heir. If you'd rather I pick someone else, Stink, let me know. That's mostly random, but I want to move my heir away from my current target in case I get killed tonight.

 

Sorry, current heir, I just don't know anymore.

 

 

EDIT: Twei, it was at 6pm on the 1st of May, which was during Night Three.

 

EDIT2: No, Lopen, Wilson did not tell me Joe had a Shardblade.

 

EDIT3: DC, is there a reason you are specifically preventing Trel from being lynched?

Edited May 3, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

I'll happily accept being an heir

First thing (other than putting me in neutral in lists) that is basically declaring me to be good

[Nyali she/her]

I'll happily accept being an heir

First thing (other than putting me in neutral in lists) that is basically declaring me to be good

 

Err, not it isn't. It's declaring you to be less likely evil. <.< I could be totally wrong, but probability states that picking semi-arbitrarily from people not on my suspicion list is more likely to hit a townie.

 

 

I really want to know if this is Joe's Blade that DC is using or not, because if it isn't, I'd like to propose something.

[Trelagist]

Why would DC protect me? He's probably getting killed because of the duel, and sacrificing himself to protect me (Who you apparently trust(ed?) more than you trust me) makes no sense all.

[Nyali she/her]

Why would DC protect me? He's probably getting killed because of the duel, and sacrificing himself to protect me (Who you apparently trust(ed?) more than you trust me) makes no sense all.

 

Hmm? I think you misunderstood my question. DC declaring the duel prevents anyone else from being lynched. You had the most votes when the duel was declared, having just gained your second. There was only one other vote out there, for Lopen. I wanted to know if DC specifically declared the duel to prevent you from being lynched or not.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

Hey, making me less evil makes me more good right?

[AliasSheep]

We could probably use Japanese. I don't know Japanese, but they've got compact characters in kanji. I know it wouldn't be right to write a whole sentence in kanji, but it's an idea.

I'm pretty sure if you used Ithkuil, you could fit an entire multi-paragraph post into those 200 characters.

EDIT:

Why would DC protect me? He's probably getting killed because of the duel, and sacrificing himself to protect me (Who you apparently trust(ed?) more than you trust me) makes no sense all.

They're supposing that you're both eliminators, in which case it would serve the eliminator team to keep you alive to get rid of your grandbow (I think).

EDIT2:

I just realised that as of tomorrow I won't be able to be active until Saturday, just so everyone knows.

Edited May 3, 2016 by AliasSheep

[Nyali she/her]

Sheep - I'm pretty certain that Trel does NOT have a permanent Grandbow, just the one-night one from Orlok, obtained because a Soulcaster redirected Orlok's item creation to Trel. See my analysis below for my notes on that. I'm not supposing Trel or DC is an eliminator. I'm just wondering if DC is trying to protect Trel from a lynch, or if the duel has nothing to do with that. The whole duel thing still makes no sense to me (see below for more thoughts on the matter).

 

-------

 

My current feelings on the state of things:

 

 

Stronger Trust

 

• Burnt Spaghetti - Someone redirected Joe's attack action to Burnt. They might have aimed at a random action of Joe's, but Joe took multiple actions, so it's more likely they specifically targeted Joe's T1A action. While that could have been a Noble using their Soulcaster Jasnah-style to attempt a vigilante-kill on someone they distrusted, chances are still higher that it was a Ghostblood targeting a suspected vigilante and redirecting their attack to another Noble. Noble Soulcasters are far more likely to use their casters to redirect a Role action back at the user of the Role action, hoping to cause a Ghostblood to kill themselves. Why didn't I declare Burnt as my heir? Because I hadn't done this analysis yet and hadn't realized how much I trusted Burnt. I might switch my declaration, if I'm allowed. We'll see what else happens.

• The Grandbow-user who killed Orlok - I think it's obvious that whomever did that is a Noble. Someone could have used a Soulcaster to redirect someone's attack action slot to Orlok, but that's much less likely. I don't have many clues as to this person's identity, but I'm pretty sure they aren't Trelagist due to the number of Grandbows fired last night, one of which was a one-shot used by Trelagist. Presumably, a permanent one was used to kill Orlok since there was only one death that night, and I'd expect the permanent to have been used last night as one of the three fired.

• The Soulcaster who redirected Orlok's item creation action to Trelagist. The weird thing here is that if they targeted "role action," they couldn't have known if it would be a spy action, an Artifabrian action, a thief action, or a GB kill. Most of those are negative actions, only the Artifabrian action is positive, and one of them is a kill. On night two, if Orlok had performed the GB kill, it isn't clear if the kill AND the item creation would have been redirected or just a random one (I think it was a random one). So, the redirect is weird, but there is no reason for a GB to redirect another GB's role action. Unless they were going for misdirection, but the chances of that coming out and helping create trust for a GB is so slight, it makes no sense. If the redirector is a GB, then Trel has to be a GB and it was just a bit of misdirection (pun intended). If the redirector was a Noble (which makes much more sense), then it says nothing about Trel except that it is almost certain Trel isn't the Soulcaster who did the redirect, since if the redirector was noble, they couldn't have known they weren't redirecting a kill, and who would take a chance of redirecting a killing or thievery to themselves? So, I think the Soulcaster is a Noble, because otherwise, I just can't see the gamble of the GBs working out as more beneficial than redirecting a random Noble's kill/spy/thievery/etc to another random Noble.

 

Note: If either item holder mentioned above wants to come forward, they would be practically confirmed Nobles, at least in my eyes. Having some confirmed Nobles would be super nice right now, but it would also make them targets, so it might not be a great idea right now. But, if you think people are going to lynch (or vig) you, you might want to come forward with that information. If you trust me and have a Spanreed, I'd love it if you let me know, but most of our Spanreeds are now in the hands of thieves and Ghostbloods, so I don't think that's going to happen.

 

 

 

Weaker Trust

 

• Stink - I don't have a good reason for this. It's mostly gut, and my gut is often wrong, but, oh well. Wilson thinks Stink's the thief, or did on N2.

 

• Twei - Sounds legit from her posts. I could be wrong, of course, but some of the things she's said make her sound more Noble than Ghostblood. As a note, Twei is high on Wilson's trust list (or was on N2), and on Elbereth's slight distrust list (or was on N3). Elbereth didn't remember why she had Twei down as slightly suspicious.

 

 

Distrust

 

• The Soulcaster-user who redirected Joe's attack to Burnt - see reasoning under Burnt Spaghetti for details.

• Trelagist - He's been on my suspicion list for a little while. His posts just strike me as suspicious. Also, he, specifically, couldn't have been the Grandbow or Soulcaster user mentioned in my Trust list.

 

 

Comments on the Duelists

 

• DC - DC twice declared a confirmed Noble as an heir. DC told me what all of his items were on N2, and, presumably, listened to me about how to use one of them. I'm assuming DC has a Shardblade because he mentioned a blade in his duel declaration and did not mention plate. If that's correct, then it's either Joe's Shardblade or it isn't. See the math behind the spoiler, but assuming everything has an equal chance, there's only about a 6% chance that DC has Joe's Blade.
  
  Let's check the probabilities real quick using some rough ballpark numbers, rounding wildly and assuming everything has an equal chance. ~4 players in ~30 are GB so there's a ~15% chance any given person is GB. 1 GB has died, leaving ~3 GBs, so there's a ~33% chance that a specific GB performed the GB kill. There are 17 people still alive, the heir wasn't Wilson, and it wasn't Twei because Joe tried to kill Twei. So, 1 in 15 chance of any given person being the heir, which is a ~7% chance. There's a 50% chance that the GB's N3 killer has Joe's Shardblade and a 50% chance GB's heir has it. So, the final probability is (0.15*0.33*0.50+0.07*0.50) = 6%.

  
  
  Why is it important to know if DC's Shardblade is Joe's or not? Because if it isn't, then, unless someone gave DC the blade on N2, DC started with that Blade. No one else with a Blade has died, and Thieves can't steal Blades. We know that every Shardblade attack done so far came from Joe's blade since he said so in his deathcry. (Please let me know if I'm wrong and missing something.) Why would a Ghostblood not kill someone with the Blade every night they could? Or, at least one out of the three nights, especially when it was clear a Noble was using a Blade to attack every night? Also, it would be weird for a Ghostblood to start with a Blade when their bonus win condition is to get a Blade. But, having a Blade at the start doesn't auto-clear you unless Maill specifically says GBs can't start with a Blade, because Maill confirming that no Blades went to GBs during setup would auto-clear everyone who started with a Blade, which I don't think is desired for this game setup.
  
  Now, DC having started with that Blade would still be a bit off to me, because he specifically told me he did not have a Shardblade on N2 when I confronted him about it. He claimed to be in contact with the Shardblade wielder, but kept specifically insisting it wasn't him. If he thought I was a Noble, why wouldn't he say he had the Shardblade? They can't be stolen, and starting with one but never using it practically confirms you're a Noble.
  
  By the way, if you started with the blade that DC now has and gave it to him on N1, N2, or N3, then you're definitely a Noble in my eyes. A GB giving away a Shardblade makes no sense whatsoever to me. We could use some confirmed Nobles right about now, if you wanted to come forward. But, you could be attacked, so it's up to you.

 

• Wilson - I feel that Wilson plays like me and approaches games like I do, so I have a natural desire to trust her. That means it would be very easy for her to mislead me, so I need to be careful about trusting my gut about her. We've proved her N2 Spanreed did not come from Orlok's N1 item creation. She told me she had Plate on N2, and she has proven to not be lying about it. Her attempt at misdirection to make people think she didn't have Plate is not suspicious since it's a good tactic for a Noble to hide the fact that they are protected from the GB night kill. I want to trust her because she trusts me (she wouldn't have told me she had Plate if she didn't (and was a Noble)), but I don't have any proof that she's a Noble.

 

Regarding the playstyle disagreements between Wilson and DC, I'm rather certain that's all genuine and not Ghostblood theatre to distract us. Wilson's solution to the disagreement is the healthiest one possible - deescalating by ignoring further direct interactions. DC, on the other hand, deliberately escalated the disagreement. If he isn't GB and didn't have further proof about Wilson beyond what he's said here in the thread, then his action is really poor sportsmanship, in my opinion.

 

 

So, in short, pending more information, I have strong evidence that DC is probably a Noble, but then a confusing piece of evidence that mitigates it slightly, and this duel makes no sense to me if DC is not a Ghostblood. But we've already established that my playstyle is very, very different from DC's, and I think both points that weaken my trust in DC are because of that playstyle difference.

 

I have nothing to support trust in Wilson, but that doesn't make her a Ghostblood. Honestly, I think both are Nobles, but I also think there's more of a chance Wilson is a Ghostblood than DC, from the evidence I've seen. Also, unless Maill clarifies to the contrary, voting to kill Wilson won't kill her, it'll just break her damaged Shardplate.

 

 

 

------

 

EDIT: Edited for formatting. Oh, also, Seonid, you complained that the duel was declared with a full day left in the cycle, but duels MUST be declared at least 24 hours before the end of the day by the rules. Which makes sense, because some people don't check this thread too often, and declaring a duel invalidates all votes against other people. People need time to realize that a duel was declared and change their vote to one of the targets (or abstain).

Edited May 3, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

Wilson only thought I was the thief cause I didn't want to have to go through the process of sending like 60 PMs and then asking for her items instead of just asking straight away.

 

Did the same with Elbereth, thanks for that