Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Mark IV he/him]

I'm confused by basically everything here. Why would attacking DC take a lot of planning on the part of the GBs? Or do you mean to imply that DC's a GB and they did a WGG? Because that makes little sense, since he hasn't claimed he was attacked despite the opportunity to do so. And in that case, it still wouldn't take a lot of planning, since he does have Shardplate to protect him. And why do either of those options say you should look at people who voted for Wilson? If anything, I'd look at the people who voted for DC. The general consensus in thread, as far as I understood it, was that he had a Shardblade. At the very least, (if he's not an eliminator), he had much better chance of having a Shardblade than Wilson. And the GBs would want a Shardblade. So I'd expect them to have voted for the most part for DC.

And I think the GBs would want to kill either of the duelers. Because 1) both are guaranteed to have Shards which the GBs want, and 2) they're both fairly agreed upon to be Villagers. (And if Wilson's a villager, they'd particularly want to kill her for who she is, while it's well known that DC has multiple items and has been partly cleared for various things, I think.)

I'm assuming here that both DC and Wilson are good. I'm also assuming DC was attacked. Then, I'm looking at reasons why DC might have been attacked.

The first one says that DC had been trying to instigate the Ghostbloods to attack by claiming to have important items in his possession. This implies that he had been planning since the start of the game to make the Ghostbloods waste an attack on him.

Then, I say that if the Ghostbloods had this goal in mind, then they'd try to make sure that they got atleast most of his items. So, they'd try to not let DC die in the duel.

The second part deals with the possibility of DC not being attacked for his items, but for some other reason that he was dangerous to the Ghostbloods. In that case, they'd try to get rid of DC ASAP. So, they'd try to get him lynched, and when his plate was weakened, they'd kill him with the GB kill.

That's all I was saying.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Sorry for inactivity. No computer access atm.

 

Zas, I'll probably be able to post my thoughts tomorrow sometime. Hopefully.

[Nyali she/her]

DC was not attacked last night, unless it was done in a way that didn't get reported in the morning kill report.

I'll post more when I can - weekends are hard because babies are super demanding.

[AliasSheep]

DC, I'd still like to know why you think I'm probably evil.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, finally got access to a computer, so here's my reads on everyone. Was planning to go through the thread again after the Night Turn, but haven't had the time or computer to do so, so here's what I gave to Burnt last Night.

 

Current suspicions:

 

Kas/Alv - Would like to hear more from both of them. Kas seems to be inactive though. Alv, I just can't read. I think one of them is probably evil.

Elbereth - kind of. Close to neutral for me. Tough to read.

Kynedath - Inactive, but for real life reasons. He's actually neutral, but whatever.

Sheep - He seems to be following the general opinion in the thread(his name is Sheep after all   j/k, haha). Anyways, not too suspicious of him, since he is a new player, but I think it could be an easy place to hide as an eliminator.

Macen - It doesn't seem like he's voiced a lot of opinions. So I'm suspicious he could just be trying to fly under the radar. His vote on DC this Cycle kind of makes me more suspicious, because I still think DC is probably a villager.

 

Leaning village, but still close to neutral:

 

Stink - some good analysis early on. Tough to read though. (See: LG17 )

Zas - gut read.

Mark - gut, plus helpfulness in thread.

 

Trusts(or, more solid village reads. I rarely trust anyone):

 

Nyali - gut read, plus very helpful. Has a Shardblade???

DC - gut read, plus more active this game compared to previous games where he's been evil. (DC, you missed me in your reads btw.)

Seonid - gut read. Seems village-y. (I've never played with evil Seonid though, so my opinion may not be the best for him)

Wilson - mixed feelings early on. I've still got some lingering doubt, but Twei told me some interesting info, plus some people say she seems village-y. 

Twei - gut read(mixed with paranoia from MR10). My village read on her also extends to the fact that I think Wilson might be village, because they seem to trust each other a good amount.

Burnt - gut(after rerolled stuffs). Paranoia is still there, but I doubt it will ever leave.

 

So yeah, I don't have super solid reads at the moment. Hopefully will have time later tonight to research some players. I'll put my vote on Macen for the time being.

[Nyali she/her]

Let's hope I'm right this time: Lopen. If you are one of the people on my list, please say something. Otherwise, I have reason to distrust you. If you are a Noble, could you please tell us who your T1A target was on night two? That could help clear things up.

There are two good reasons why I would prefer not to share who the GB's target was last night. At least, not just yet.

EDIT: stupid autocorrect

Edited May 8, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

Why you gotta hide the information? I think it's late enough that if we all gave each other information, then we could get a pretty nice picture of who is what.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm not one of the people on your list, sorry.

 

What's all this about my T1A Actions, Nyali? I Heired Zas with my T1A Action on N2. I've changed my Heir since then though.

[Nyali she/her]

Well, if I shared stuff like, "I know Lopen has a Soulcaster," then it wouldn't have been so easy to convince him to admit he didn't start the game with it.

To be clearer, I'm accusing Lopen of killing Elodin and taking his Soulcaster. That's the only Soulcaster that should have changed hands, unless a thief stole one, in which case, Lopen could be a thief instead. Either way, I can't see a way for Lopen to be a Noble.

Please point out any flaws in this logic. I'm tired of getting Nobles killed =\

----

Edit: to be even clearer, Lopen has now claimed to have used his T1A slots on both nights one AND two to declare/change heirs. The question about night one was filtered through someone who has a spanreed since I am not in direct contact with him. I specifically phrased the question in such a way that he could trivially hide what he was doing with his action if he didn't want the Ghostbloods or the thief to know he had the Soulcaster. I didn't even have to ask leading follow-up questions to trick him into making it clear he didn't use a Soulcaster with those actions. He openly admitted to doing something specific with those actions.

While not using one of the most powerful items in the game for a Noble on one of those nights could be plausible, I just can't see it two nights in a row. Unless Lopen is claiming not to have known he could use it to try to make a suspected Ghostblood to kill themselves without risking hurting a Noble by accident? I find that less plausible than him being the Ghostblood who killed Elodin.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Nyali

[Elbereth she/her]

Well, there could have been a third Soulcaster from the beginning of the game? (Assuming that there's someone else out there with a Soulcaster, since that person has been referenced a couple times and wasn't Elodin. Correct?) But even then it's a 50% chance. Which isn't bad at all. You're sure about this, right? It's not just a guess or secondhand information?

EDIT: What I have in my notes so far for Lopen: He's defended DC and Joe. He didn't move his vote on the day when we had a ton of single votes until the last half hour or so, which I view as a small plus. (Since eliminators want mislynches if possible.) On the other hand, you could say that he tried to cause paranoia that the Grandbow user was evil. So there's that. Nothing has really stood out, though. I'm currently working through D3, so my views may or may not change as I go through.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Elbereth

[Nyali she/her]

Elbereth - that's why I asked him oblique questions to check if he started with it or not. His answers tell me he didn't.

I know he has it because I used the emotion bracelet that Luna started with on him last night and found that he redirected someone's action.

(By the way, if I didn't already say this, the reason I didn't open PMs with everyone last night was because I don't have a spanreed. Someone else had offered to make group PMs for me.)

[Elbereth she/her]

Right. I mean. If you want to play devil's advocate, he could be telling the truth and have actually heired instead of Soulcasting that night. But. He would have to have two other actions (two items or an item and a role action), both of which he considered more important than Soulcasting. So no.

I'm assuming you have other information that you're not sharing that makes his answers mean he didn't start with it? Or am I just ridiculously tired (tip: never take three subject tests in the same day and then go dancing afterwards; it's exhausting) and not seeing the logic there?

Also, Lopen. Apologies.

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for explaining.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Sigh. Sorry, but I lied about Heiring. I've had the Soulcaster since the start of the game. I suspected you knew about my Soulcaster after you asked me in the thread(after already asking about my T1A Action in a PM), and sent a message to our go between person, but I don't think they've seen it yet.  I didn't heir Zas, I redirected his role Action to himself to try and make him kill himself if he was evil and using the GB kill. You asking me in the thread who I targeted with my T1A Action on N2 is a pretty big indication you knew I had a T1A item, but I didn't want the GB's to know about it, so I claimed to have Heired someone to try and mask what you were revealing, and then continue the conversation through our PM friend(who I didn't trust enough to tell them I have a Soulcaster when they asked me if I used my T1A Action for N1).

 

Edit: I'm going to bed now, but will answer any and every question you ask me tomorrow, as soon as I can.

Edited May 8, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Now this is interesting, because I also have reason to be suspicious of Lopen.

 

I'm Wilson's Soulcaster contact, who redirected Orlok's item creation N2. This was the reason for trusting her that I referenced last cycle. Now, I imagine not explicitly stating my reasons hinted at the connection, but it wasn't clear. Lopen was the only player who pressed me for my reason - in fact he requested a PM from a spanreed holder during the night specifically to ask that question. It read like he was fishing for more information to figure out whether I had the soulcaster or not.

 

I also think the GBs had guessed I have the Soulcaster (or maybe a Shardblade) because my 1A action was redirected last night cycle.

 

On its own, not particularly substantial. But having heard about the Soulcaster, I think it's worth bringing into the open.

 

My redirects (all targeting role actions):

Joe -> Macen

Orlok -> Trelagist

Kas -> yafeshan

Mark -> DC       BUT I was targeted by a Soulcaster so this became Wilson -> DC

 

Lopen, who did you target with your Soulcasts?

 

 

 

Incidentally, since someone will probably ask this: I decided not to redirect actions to target themselves because the chances of hitting a Noble Artifabrian or Spy are much higher than finding the GB making the kill. Spies in particular are crippled by a self-redirect. Using the Soulcaster in this way was always a balance between harming the GBs and harming the Nobles, and this is where I think the line falls.

[Nyali she/her]

Sigh. Sorry, but I lied about Heiring. I've had the Soulcaster since the start of the game. I suspected you knew about my Soulcaster after you asked me in the thread(after already asking about my T1A Action in a PM), and sent a message to our go between person, but I don't think they've seen it yet. I didn't heir Zas, I redirected his role Action to himself to try and make him kill himself if he was evil and using the GB kill. You asking me in the thread who I targeted with my T1A Action on N2 is a pretty big indication you knew I had a T1A item, but I didn't want the GB's to know about it, so I claimed to have Heired someone to try and mask what you were revealing, and then continue the conversation through our PM friend(who I didn't trust enough to tell them I have a Soulcaster when they asked me if I used my T1A Action for N1).

Edit: I'm going to bed now, but will answer any and every question you ask me tomorrow, as soon as I can.

If that was your goal, you could have just said the name of one person you targeted here, which would have been completely truthful, without saying what the action was, especially if you suspected I knew exactly what item you had. You could have even lied and given a random name. You could have then clarified through our go-between in a way that alerted me without altering then and waited for me to get the relayed message before posting a blatant and suspicious lie here. Our go-between had no idea why I asked them to relay the question, and I feel I phrased it in a way that allowed you to answer without revealing what you had or did. If you have the truthful answer, since your target didn't die then and you only gave one target, it would look to the go-between like you used a pain knife or declared am heir, and you could even have told them it was one of those specifically, but told them not to share that info with me.

I'm sorry, but it sounds far more like you are lying now to cover your tracks. That said, I'm really afraid of being wrong. But you were already on my watch list... The person who the Ghostbloods killed to get their Soulcaster did specifically say not to trust you, which doesn't mean much by itself, but when other evidence points to you having killed them, it starts to feel relevant.

Also, we know someone redirected Orlok's role action on night one, right? You've verified that wasn't you. Twei said it wasn't her. That means either it was a third Soulcaster, which makes them a Noble and you a Ghostblood, or Elodin did it, which gives you a 50% chance of being a Ghostblood. Or there were four or more Soulcasters in the game to start, but the chances are dropping fast of these possibilities being the case.

Edit:

Incidentally, since someone will probably ask this: I decided not to redirect actions to target themselves because the chances of hitting a Noble Artifabrian or Spy are much higher than finding the GB making the kill. Spies in particular are crippled by a self-redirect. Using the Soulcaster in this way was always a balance between harming the GBs and harming the Nobles, and this is where I think the line falls.

Though i disagree, especially since hitting a Noble artifabrian is a good thing, not a bad thing, since it guarantees a Ghostblood didn't get the item, I guess I could see this being true. Actually, I'm confused by that logic - wouldn't redirecting a Spy to someone else hinder them just as much, if not more? Unless you get told when you're redirected (I'm used to no being the case, but it could easily be yes here).

Did you specifically redirect role actions, and if they had no role action, would that redirect a random action or do nothing?

Edited May 8, 2016 by Nyali

[Mark IV he/him]

Twei, was there a specific reason to my actions being redirected to DC? Or was that just random? And why DC? Or was that random too?

Lopen (or Loopen ) might have passed the soul caster after the Ghostbloods killed Elodin in an attempt to frame him. That way, an cries of Lopen being passed the soul caster would seem insubstantial.

But this possibility, to me, seems more and more unlikely by the minute.

Either way, I would like to place my bets on Lopen being evil. I know I look like I'm following other people blindly but unfortunately, I have no better leads at the moment.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Also, we know someone redirected Orlok's role action on night one, right? You've verified that wasn't you. Twei said it wasn't her. That means either it was a third Soulcaster, which makes them a Noble and you a Ghostblood, or Elodin did it, which gives you a 50% chance of being a Ghostblood. Or there were four or more Soulcasters in the game to start, but the chances are dropping fast of these possibilities being the case.

That was Elodin, wasn't it? He said as much in his death rattle.

 

Though i disagree, especially since hitting a Noble artifabrian is a good thing, not a bad thing, since it guarantees a Ghostblood didn't get the item, I guess I could see this being true. Actually, I'm confused by that logic - wouldn't redirecting a Spy to someone else hinder them just as much, if not more? Unless you get told when you're redirected (I'm used to no being the case, but it could easily be yes here).

Did you specifically redirect role actions, and if they had no role action, would that redirect a random action or do nothing?

Hitting an artifabrian doesn't guarantee the item goes to a noble - I don't want to possibly redirect a kill to people I trust, so they're people in the suspicious/inactive categories. And Spies are informed who they actually targeted (I believe everyone is, as this was ow I found out my redirect had been redirected last cycle).

 

I'm not 100% certain, but I expect that if the target didn't take a role action nothing would happen.

 

 

Twei, was there a specific reason to my actions being redirected to DC? Or was that just random? And why DC? Or was that random too?

I've been targeting people who I was slightly suspicious or unsure about, as they are more likely to be making the GB kill than strongly suspicious people. DC was because I knew he had plate and would survive being hit.

[Nyali she/her]

What I meant was, hitting a Noble artifabrian with a role redirect to self does guarantee that the item goes to a Noble.

[little wilson she/her]

What I meant was, hitting a Noble artifabrian with a role redirect to self does guarantee that the item goes to a Noble.

 

Artifabrians aren't the only roles though. The Spy is another role, and a Spy being redirected back to himself is completely worthless. He already knows how many items and what items he has, so he gains virtually no information except that he was redirected. That's it. This way guarantees that the information gathering roles are still able to gather information, even if it's not the information they were looking for. And the artifabrian will still know exactly who got that item, because they'll be told. It makes the most sense and is the most useful way to use the soulcaster without crippling a role completely.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

As the Nobles began to grow restless, wondering why Loopen had summoned them all, he appeared in front of all of them, on top of some stairs in the courtyard they were in.

 

"I asked you all here today to explain the misunderstanding that occured earlier today." Loopen said as he pulled out some small rectangular papers from his clothing. 

 

"The truth is......." he paused and looked up at the crowd with a grin on his face, and lowered the cards. "...I am a Ghostblood."

[little wilson she/her]

Huh. That was unexpected. Lopen.

[Seonid he/him]

Well, I'm back - sorry for disappearing again. I'm graduated and all that (pending the resolutions of a couple incomplete grades).

I don't have many thoughts on today other than this: Lopen

I was going to vote earlier, but didn't get around to it. Lopen's confession seals the deal on it?

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Lopen.

oh, and btw, Im back home now so should be a bit more active.

[Nyali she/her]

Oh, by the way, the person I protected who the Ghostbloods attacked last night was Stink.

So, yeah, if anyone loyal still has a charged Painrial, Stink, Twei, and I are probably the most likely targets tonight. Though, because I said that, they might pick off someone else hoping to hit the other Shardblade wielder instead. It's a really target rich environment right now

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Only 15 more minutes to troll you guys.   Oh well, I'm sure we'll meet again on the other side.