Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

^ Is possible. I personally think it's more likely that Lopen had spied on Seonid though.

[Macen he/him]

To help everyone out - since I think Mail hates us.
 

• Elbereth: Tintallë-Probably a goddess, definitely a ninja
• Phattemer: Axies-In denial Noble
• Master_Elodin: Eobard Thawne-Reverse-Flash Noble
• DeathClutch: Itachi Uchiha-Some Japanese kid Noble
• Alvron: Alv-Badchull Halfborn
• ThatTinyStrawMan: He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named Noble
• Kynedath: Kayden Ianlynn-Definitely arrogant
• little wilson: Brightlady Kenara-Looking for body parts. Definitely British.
• AliasSheep: Kelen Taldar
• Zas678: Kaythar
• Twelfthrootoftwo: Teialan
• Macen: Ace
• Yafeshan: Geran Noble
• Mark: Mayelek
• Kasimir: Karnan-Not Khas. Nope.
• TheMightyLopen: Loopen-Just a wee bit crazy Ghostblood Spy
• Seonid: Senna Idian Noble Artifabrian
• Burnt Spaghetti: Ebony Ghetti
• Stink
• Nyali: Brightness Arisia
• Orlok: Subadon-Probably secretly American Ghostblood Artfabrian
• TheOnlyJoe: Sani Joslin-Traitor to 'Murica Noble
• Elkanah: Montnog Spot Thief
• Trelagist Noble
• Araris Valerian: Ardel Noble
• Hellscythe: Hellscythe Noble
• Luna: Luna Arryn Noble
• Silver Dragon: Star Thief Noble

 

I think I got it all updated. Let me know if I missed something.

Edited May 11, 2016 by Macen

[Macen he/him]

Well. Kyne should already be dead. Hasn't posted anything in 6 cycles?

*EDIT* I think I did the math right there.

*EDIT 2* Also, I meant to send this in a message - but posted it in the wrong tab of chrome... Oops.

Kyne's last post was on Day 2.

Edited May 11, 2016 by Macen

[Nyali she/her]

Well. Kyne should already be dead. Hasn't posted anything in 6 cycles?

*EDIT* I think I did the math right there.

*EDIT 2* Also, I meant to send this in a message - but posted it in the wrong tab of chrome... Oops.

Kyne's last post was on Day 2.

 

Day 2 was four cycles ago. He's been inactive for three cycles. Cycle = Day+Night, right?

[Macen he/him]

This is a rerun of LG5, the first game I GMd. Each Day turn will be 48 hours and each Night turn will be 24 hours long. Rollover time will be 9 pm MST. Signups will end on April 22nd. There is a 5 turn inactivity filter; after five turns of inactivity, inactive players will be killed.

Since it's worded as turn, and he specifically said "Each day turn will be 48 hours and each night turn will be 24 hours", I took it to mean each are separate turns.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I believe I've done the math right. Kynedath is not dead.

[Nyali she/her]

Since it's worded as turn, and he specifically said "Each day turn will be 48 hours and each night turn will be 24 hours", I took it to mean each are separate turns.

Turns, yes. Cycles, no. Edited May 11, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

Turns, yes. Cycles, no.

Correct, but it says 5 turns and they die, not cycles.

[Elbereth she/her]

I figured it out, maybe. I went and made a PM with everyone N3, including Kynedath just because. He responded once. So this is the fifth turn that he's been inactive. Maill, if that were the last thing he said, would he have died today? Or would he die tonight?

Also, writing up my thoughts on every player right now. Sorry it took so long.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

So. Lopen, in previous eliminator games, has been an advocate of killing people who suspect his team. I think it's worth checking who the kill targets were suspicious of.

 

Araris - Kynedath and LUNA

Joe - Lopen

Elodin - Zas (sort of), people who went after DC's thread heiring (so AliasSheep, Nyali, Twei, Kynedath, Elbereth, Kas)

STINK - DC, Elb, Alv, people who went after DC's thread heiring (Maybe. I can't tell when STINK is joking.)

 

I suspect Elodin (and Seonid, for that matter) was killed for his soulcaster. STINK may have been targeted for an item, but I don't know what STINK has. Joe was only suspicious of Lopen, who we now know was a GB. Araris suspected LUNA (confirmed Noble) and Kynedath (inactive).

 

My suspicions:

Zas and Elbereth - For similar reasons. Neither really want to say much of meaning. Zas in particular seems to want to collect quotes and leave the analysis up to everyone else.

Kynedath - Inactive, but regularly online.

Burnt - Because paranoia.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I figured it out, maybe. I went and made a PM with everyone N3, including Kynedath just because. He responded once. So this is the fifth turn that he's been inactive. Maill, if that were the last thing he said, would he have died today? Or would he die tonight?

Also, writing up my thoughts on every player right now. Sorry it took so long.

At the end.

[Elbereth she/her]

At the end.

Then that's why. He'll die tonight, unless he's talked to someone after me.

Here we are:

Okay. So I actually haven't finished rereading the thread ( ), but I got pretty far and I figured I should share my thoughts. Particularly as nothing else seems to be going on today... (In thread, at least.)

Alv- I've got nothing. I haven't talked with him much in PMs, but from the thread I can't read anything out of his posts.

Nyali - Mostly trust. The fact that she had a Shardblade and didn't use it at all is pretty near a hard-clear, plus the fact that she helped kill Lopen, and just hte tone of her posts. I probably trust her most of anyone.

Kynedath - As mentioned, hasn't talked in forever. Fairly neutral here as well. Although this post stood out to me on a reread, because the first half basically assumed he could protect himself from the eliminator kill. Which only Shardplate can do. Since DC was innocent, I thought we couldn't draw anything from that, but Lopen was a spy, and it does make sense for DC to have been one of the first scans. Maybe not worth a lynch, but interesting.

Wilson - Paranoid trust. Mostly due to PMs, partly tone, partly how open she's being. Partly, as Alv mentioned a while ago, for her fighting back. Plus she obviously had Shardplate from the beginning of the game, which is a point in her favor, and she helped kill Lopen.

Sheep - Some suspicion. Partly for the reason I voted for him, a while ago, which was felt like he was trying really awkwardly to put suspicion on the (now mysteriously vanished?) Grandbow user. Also, putting pressure and suspicion on DC for what his A1 slot was for, ignoring the fact that role actions could take up that slot. And the trying to convince everyone that there weren't any thieves was kind of odd. Could all be an honest mistake, but it does seem suspicious to me.

Zas - Some trust. He hasn't said much in this game, but what he has said seems very un-eliminator-like, personally. Obviously, this is mostly tone/gut. (For example, his question about the GB secondary win con C1. That was what originally sparked my trust in him.)

Twei - Mostly trust. Partly because of the Soulcaster thing, although I haven't been involved in PMs so I don't know exactly what's going on there. Originally, I was suspicious of her for the post about what Artifabrians should do (here), because it occurred to me that it would be better for the eliminators if all the temporary painrials were used C2 and couldn't be used C3 or 4, so that the GBs would have free reign then (particularly with the later context of them having their own Artifabrian, so they could control the Painrials of everyone else in order to choose when their Grandbow would have the best effect), but then she undercut that plan later (here), which makes that point invalid, and I just never retracted that suspicion in my notes. Other reason I have for trusting her is that she confirmed with me about DC's Spanreed, which seems unlikely for an eliminator to need to do.

Macen - Neutral. There's been nothing that's stood out either way, for him. At least, thus far in my read (I'm midway through D4). I think he's said more since? Not sure, anyway. No read.

Mark - Light suspicion. He's mostly stayed under the radar this game. Only 8 posts (I think; might have missed some during the nationality debate) up through D4. This is mostly gut, but if I were to pick any of the people Seonid listed to be traitors, it'd probably be him. He did suggest the killvote, true, but that doesn't necessarily hurt the eliminators. Particularly when they managed to kill Trelagist with it. (Or let Trelagist die, if there weren't any eliminators in that vote.)

Kas - Hasn't posted much, but I'd say light trust. Mostly for his comments on gut votes, and the fact that I'd guess he'd be a little more active as an eliminator. And he was the one to originally suggest the orange vote for kills. Not sure on this, though.

Burnt - Difficult to tell, particularly as she's essentially only been around for half the game. Neutral, from my perspective, although with associated trust because of being part of the group that found Lopen out.

Stink - very, very slight trust. Mostly for his analyses, which didn't feel like an eliminator thing for him to do. Also, he tried to steer the topic back to the game when the nationality debate was going on, which is a small plus. But as always, difficult to read. And very irritating in our PM.

Hmm. If I were to pick someone to lynch today... I'll say Sheep, for now. Particularly as he hasn't even posted in 4 (real life) days.

How's this for substance, Twei?

[Nyali she/her]

My Shardblade was Joe's. I didn't start with it. Since DC already told the Ghostbloods which Nobles currently have blades in his death cry, there really isn't any reason to obfuscate it anymore.

I do not currently hold that blade. The Ghostblood who was Lopen's heir would have inherited the Soulcaster and I didn't want them to redirect my attack to another Noble. So, I gave it away. That way they couldn't use me to hurt people of their choice. Especially since they note have two Soulcasters... There appear to be only two blades in the game, unless there is another Noble with a blade who hasn't used it all game.

By the way, I really don't like how Nobles are using the death cries to get retribution against other Nobles who mis-lynched them or mis-vigged them. Can we please stop doing that?

My suspicions are currently aimed at Sheep and Alvron. I trust Mark and Twei completely and Wilson and Burnt a fair amount. I'm rather certain that Stink is not a Ghostblood. I'm starting to trust Macen too. Most other people, I distrust to some extent.

I have heard info that strongly suggests that the following people did not perform the Ghostblood faction kill last night: Zas, Alvron, Stink, Sheep. Only the Alvron info there came from a source I don't fully trust. So, assuming it wasn't any of those four... If Kyne and Kas really are inactive, who performed the Ghostblood kill?

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

So, assuming it wasn't any of those four... If Kyne and Kas really are inactive, who performed the Ghostblood kill?

Unfortunately, it's really starting to look like its someone on the trust list.

[Mark IV he/him]

@Elb,

I have my blade from the start of this game. And, I used it only to execute the orange vote holder (Sorry Trelagist) I guess you forgot to count this in your re-read. Or perhaps you hadn't yet reached D6? Either way, I think it's something you'd like to count in your suspicions list.

Macen- A big thank you for adding the list. I'm too lazy too compile it myself - especially since I've got very limited time in the day to actually focus on SE.

[Elbereth she/her]

My Shardblade was Joe's. I didn't start with it. Since DC already told the Ghostbloods which Nobles currently have blades in his death cry, there really isn't any reason to obfuscate it anymore.

...Storm it. I knew that. Brain fart.

Okay. Well, Nyali's still mostly clear in my mind, for the other reasons I stated. Mark is much less suspicious than I said, though.

I have heard info that strongly suggests that the following people did not perform the Ghostblood faction kill last night: Zas, Alvron, Stink, Sheep. Only the Alvron info there came from a source I don't fully trust. So, assuming it wasn't any of those four... If Kyne and Kas really are inactive, who performed the Ghostblood kill?

Did you hear that from me? Because if not, I can confirm that Alv didn't make the kill.

EDIT: And yeah, Mark, I only got to around D4, right before the DC/Wilson duel. Planning to finish the rest before turnover today, though. I hope.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Elbereth

[Nyali she/her]

Did you hear that from me? Because if not, I can confirm that Alv didn't make the kill.

Oh I know that. Think about it though. Who could have done the kill?

I know for absolute certain that it was not Stink, Twei, Mark, Zas, Sheep, or me who did the kill. So...

 

 

Not worth considering right now (in my opinion):

Kas could have if he was faking his inactivity (which I highly doubt) (EDIT: which is impossible)

Kyne could have if he was faking his inactivity (more plausible than Kas, but I still doubt it).

Burnt could have if she was rerolled as Ghostblood (but I am ignoring this possibility because, to me, if Maill had to re-roll the only player I could truly confirm as a Noble, the game ended in a draw when that occurred and the rest of it is irrelevant to me).

Alvron could have only if Elbereth is lying, but that can be ignored because if we're looking for a single Ghostblood, it's pointless to consider people who could only be Ghostblood if a specific other person is also Ghostblood since, if we make that assumption, we've already found another Ghostblood who is more likely.

And so then that leaves:

Elbereth could have if she's been lying.

Macen could have if he's been lying to me.

Wilson could have if she's been playing us all game (but if so, we're totally screwed and it's already game over).

Am I forgetting anyone?

EDIT: Well, Elbereth is hardly the most suspicious person on my list, but there are only three people who could have done last night's kill.

Unfortunately, out of those three, I trust Elbereth the least. Sorry, Elbereth

 

 

(EDIT 2: Grammar and name bolding)

Edited May 12, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

Kas could have if he was faking his inactivity (which I highly doubt)

To help you out - this one isn't possible. You have to send a message via PM to perform an action and he hasn't been online since the 30th.

Mail: you are requiring a message via PM for actions, correct?

[Elbereth she/her]

And this is when I really wish I had thought to ask for a PM with Nyali last night... Right. So.

I'm going to assume that you know what you're talking about, and those people who you said didn't perform the kill definitely didn't. Because I do trust you, although that seems like a lot of people to know the actions of (T1A actions, no less).

Out of those three left, I'd say I trust Macen the least. Because I do trust Wilson, I think. (um... Other than the fact that I'm suddenly having flashbacks to trusting Meta in MR12, which is just a tad worrying.) Whereas Macen... I haven't talked with him in PMs, but I don't think he's said anything in thread that particularly shows his alignment either way.

Burnt could have if she was rerolled as Ghostblood (but I am ignoring this possibility because, to me, if Maill had to re-roll the only player I could truly confirm as a Noble, the game ended in a draw when that occurred and the rest of it is irrelevant to me).

Can you explain what this means? I don't quite understad your point here. Edited May 12, 2016 by Elbereth

[Nyali she/her]

And this is when I really wish I had thought to ask for a PM with Nyali last night... Right. So.

I'm going to assume that you know what you're talking about, and those people who you said didn't perform the kill definitely didn't. Because I do trust you, although that seems like a lot of people to know the actions of (T1A actions, no less).

 

And you've just highlighted why I'm not fond of the use of PMs in Mafia games for anything other than Eliminators and Masons. It naturally devolves the game into one group of people who all consider each other to be "cleared" as loyal deciding how the rest of the game is going to go, winning almost always if they are all truly loyal, and losing almost always if one of them is actually a traitor who managed to convince them anyway. That's no fun for the people who are neither in the group nor eliminators. But, isn't forming one group like that the whole point of the mechanic? If every game so far with PMs hasn't devolved into this tactic (or at least attempted to but was prevented/invalidated due to mechanical interactions such as conversions), I'll be pretty surprised...

 

So yes, between various people's spying, emotion bracelets, soulcasters, and pain knives, I can confirm that Zas, Sheep, Stink, and Alvron (assuming you're a Noble) absolutely did not perform the Ghostblood kill last night. I completely trust Mark, Twei, and myself. I also am assuming trust of Burnt for reasons elaborated on below. That just leaves the three of you.

 

Can you explain what this means? I don't quite understad your point here.

 

Back when the accidental reveal of Burnt's alignment happened, I had just done a careful analysis of everyone in the game (as best I could), and went, aha! I finally found someone I'm absolutely certain is a Noble! ... and then I saw that the GM had just rerolled her alignment. So, I said, whatever, I'm going to pretend that didn't happen, and if I'm wrong, I don't really care. For me, having fun relies on me being able to trust logical deductions and uncover lies (when on the village side - when an eliminator, the fun is in getting myself logically proved to be on the village side by enough of the actual villagers and not getting caught in any lies doing it).

 

So, for the rest of this game to be interesting to me, Burnt would have to have remained a Noble. That means, if she's not a Noble, I'm not really interested in how the rest of the game plays out. So, I'll assume Burnt is a Noble. You are certainly welcome to disagree! But that's why I'm not even considering that Burnt might be a Ghostblood - I'm working from the premise that she definitely isn't.

[STINK he/him]

Yo I can confirm that requesting a PM with Nyali did not give you one

[Nyali she/her]

Yo I can confirm that requesting a PM with Nyali did not give you one

 

I don't have a spanreed. I don't control what PMs the people who do have spanreeds set up for me and which they do not. I do appreciate the ones that were created for me, but not everyone wants everyone else to know who has all the spanreeds given how so many were stolen.

 

... at the same time, so many being stolen means that the thieves are unlikely to care about stealing more since they won't get them any close to their win condition if they've already taken one.

 

 

---------------

 

EDIT: Maill, what happens if a Ghostblood Spy performs the Ghostblood kill with one action, spies with another, and then someone uses a Soulcaster on them to redirect their "role" action? I took this post by you: http://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/54042-lg20-warcamp-enigmas/page-23#entry436906 to mean that Ghostblood kills are always redirected by a "role action" redirect, so in the above case, both role actions get redirected. Am I misinterpreting your clarification?

Edited May 12, 2016 by Nyali

[Kynedath]

Alright guys, really sorry about not doing anything, but to be honest, I had forgotten that this game was even going on. I forgot to follow the thread one cycle, and then I got caught up in other activities. I'm afraid that I won't be any help since I have been gone so long, and I don't have nearly enough time to go and read through everything.

 

I got a PM last night from Maill saying that I was in danger of dying from inactivity, so that brought me back. Not that I will be any good to you. I am basically just an extra village body at this point. So call me buffer for the duration of this game 

 

Looking at the list so kindly provided by Nyali, I think that my biggest suspect is either Elbereth or else Nyali themselves. If they are cleared from when I wasn't here, then I apologize, but as it is, I find their list to be quite presumptuous in assuming they aren't an eliminator. The power of suggestion can be very effective and that might be what this is.

[Nyali she/her]

Err, did anyone check if Kyne was active before this post and could have performed actions last in-game night?

 

EDIT: Kyne -

 

I was the only person so far to successfully stop a Ghostblood kill using a Painrial.

 

It could have been a WGG, but I also led the village into killing our second Ghostblood (Lopen) last day turn by proving he didn't start with the Soulcaster that he had used the previous night.

 

The night I gained Joe's Shardblade by virtue of being his heir, I used it the way the village directed, to "lynch" despite DC preventing a real lynch that day. The next night, I gave it away after having been exposed as having a Shardblade by the deathcry of said lynch target (who turned out to be a Noble) who wanted to get back at me for killing him. I handed it off because we know the Ghostbloods have a Soulcaster and I didn't want them redirecting my T1A action to make me kill someone.

 

During the night, I proved that DC was outright lying about some actions he took, and the lies deliberately caused me to use my Painrial one night to protect him while he was already protected by Shardplate, an extremely suspicious move because that Painrial could have been used to protect a random player hoping to catch the Ghostblood kill. He also did that duel to prevent a lynch despite claiming to think his duel target was a Noble and despite knowing both he and his duel target had Shardplate and couldn't die from the duel. Lynches are how the village wins, so preventing a lynch from happening (even a mislynch, unless you're really sure) is an eliminator move in my eyes. I was very, very surprised to learn he was just trolling the Nobles while being a Noble, for no discernible reason.

 

That's all I have to back up my claim.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Nyali

[Elbereth she/her]

Back when the accidental reveal of Burnt's alignment happened, I had just done a careful analysis of everyone in the game (as best I could), and went, aha! I finally found someone I'm absolutely certain is a Noble! ... and then I saw that the GM had just rerolled her alignment. So, I said, whatever, I'm going to pretend that didn't happen, and if I'm wrong, I don't really care. For me, having fun relies on me being able to trust logical deductions and uncover lies (when on the village side - when an eliminator, the fun is in getting myself logically proved to be on the village side by enough of the actual villagers and not getting caught in any lies doing it).

 

So, for the rest of this game to be interesting to me, Burnt would have to have remained a Noble. That means, if she's not a Noble, I'm not really interested in how the rest of the game plays out. So, I'll assume Burnt is a Noble. You are certainly welcome to disagree! But that's why I'm not even considering that Burnt might be a Ghostblood - I'm working from the premise that she definitely isn't.

Ah, okay. I will disagree, then. I can see that perspective, but in my opinion it's not helpful to actually winning. (Particularly - although I don't currently remember the exact timing - since if Kynedath was evil, I could definitely see Maill replacing him with Burnt.) And since it seems fairly likely that one of your trust group is evil (particularly since Lopen decided to out himself when he really didn't need to, from a thread perspective), Burnt. Macen, Sheep. (Because I forgot to retract the first time.)

Also, yes, there have been games when free PMs do not create trust groups. LG16 never did, I don't think, although there were only PMs during the night (but then, this game's PMs are limited too). That definitely didn't really affect the game's outcome. AG2 did, and it wasn't made up of eliminators, but the eliminators won anyway. Pretty sure there was not much like a trust group in QF14, even though there were free PMs and alignment scanners.

Pretty sure Kyn was around during the night? I can't remember for certain, though.