Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Tintallë, 6 seconds pre-death:

"I used a PK. 

On Burnt.

I’m doing this for Wilson. She deserves it. Thank you, Wilson. You’ll understand afterwards. Til then...
Farewell, all. Sorry for all the thieving. 
I’ll be rooting for you. All of you. 
And I’ll see you in the next game.  :)"

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

1: wow. Wilson changed her mind about me. I distinctly remember her telling me that she was like, 99.99% sure I was still good.

also, I'll note now that I was the one who suggested to Nyali that she should target Lopen, just saying.

Im going to vote for Wilson. but, if it helps, im thinking I'll publicly sacrifice my vote and give away my half shard, so if you still think I'm evil, kill me tonight. I'll willingly give away my protection.

my comment about killing Zas- I kinda doubted you were telling the truth so figured the if Zas died and had the blade, and was good, then you were truthful (I hadn't realized about the action order by this point). if Zas died and had no blade then in my mind you would be more likely evil. I still have paranoia on you since I was attacked and you knew about my alerter.

edit:

so Elbs saying she pain knifed me. wouldnt that clear me as there was still a ghostblood attack?

Edited May 15, 2016 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Mark IV he/him]

A lot of silence....... (Most of you must be asleep)

So, the current situation, as I see it is that -

1)Wilson had Nyali's blade.

2) they'd decided to let Wilson pass it back to Nyali.

3) Wilson had a bout of paranoia about Nyali being evil, which, in after thought, she finds unfounded.

4) Nyali jumps (with reasoning) to the conclusion that Wilson was lying as she said her pass was 'redirected', which is not possible due to the order of actions.

5) then Wilson is voted upon by Nyali.

6) Wilson responds publicly by giving reasoning for her actions and says that her paranoia was unfounded.

7) Elbereth’s deathcry states that she pain knifed burnt, then proceeds to 'vote for burnt' (likely for aesthetic reasons ). (Burnt, here I suspect elbereth wants to convey that she is not suspicious of you because she pain knifed you, but rather she painknifed you because she was suspicious of you.)

8) Burnt posts her thoughts.

My reading is that Burnt is most probably innocent because she knew Nyali was being protected. Unless she (and the eliminators) attacked Nyali specifically because she was being protected (like Kipper did N1 in LG16), she is most likely innocent, since at this point, the eliminators would not want to waste kills but rather takE out people peripheral go the topic of discussion (unless they're fans of manipulation )

So, Wilson, I'm sorry, but this seems the best step to me. If you die, and you're evil, we still wouldn't have lost, yes? We'd have one last chance.

Mail, how could Elbereth hold so many items? Shouldn't they have disappeared if they were of the same type? Or does the thief have a special ability to create large pockets for themselves?

[STINK he/him]

Mark.

 

I don't really know anything about you this game.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

mark, there are no limits too how many T2 items you can hold. you cant have double of the same item or more than one T1a item or more than 1 T1D item.

and sure, I get that elb likely knifed me because she was probably suspicious of me, but I dont get why that might make me more suspicious now. her death cry to me reads: I pain knifed burnt so she's totally evil.

but there was a GB kill... I would be suspicious if there wasnt one, but there was, so I dont get what she was trying to achieve...

[Nyali she/her]

Zas, did Wilson actually give you the Shardblade?

[Mark IV he/him]

Mark.

 

I don't really know anything about you this game.

What do you want to know stink? The fact that I started with a Shardblade? The fact that I was helping Nyali, Burnt and wilson when we were collaborating? The fact that I'm innocent (I'm sure you won't believe this one )?

Either way, I don't have much solid proof that I'm good, but if you ask Wilson, Burnt or Nyali, (and maybe even Twei, but I haven't interacted with her much this game) they'll all tell you the same thing.

And what about you Stink? I don't really know anything about you this game.

[STINK he/him]

Aye, that's the problem with limited PMs

 

Well, I killed Elbereth. I only have a PM with Wilson, where I was the Thief

 

Otherwise I'm thinking you could be evil.

[Nyali she/her]

Mark isn't evil.

[STINK he/him]

Because he started with a Shardblade?

[Mark IV he/him]

Because of what he did with the Shardblade. (Not using it for 3 cycles which would have been a very illogical move had I been GB. Personally, I don't believe starting with a shard clears anyone, because I feel half th challenge is retaining the shard with you).

[STINK he/him]

Na, not killing as an eliminator ain't that big of an illogical move, tbh. I mean, when it gives you loads of trust (apparently) then surely it's worth it! Not like you can only kill in the beginning. You could also just conveniently start making kills soon on inno's and make the game a whole lot more annoying for the village. 

 

Killing people with roles or items isn't something that's a village or eliminator thing, basically. It all comes down to the individual. So any other reason?

[Macen he/him]

Hey guys. Still not really around, but thought I would post this. My wife and our good friend surprised me with a BR quote at the bar for our wedding:

https://imgur.com/a/tZrTz

Edited May 15, 2016 by Macen

[twelfthrootoftwo]

1: With Kas revealed evil, my main reason for trusting Burnt (unbalanced game due to 2-player swing to GBs if her alignment changed) no longer holds.

 

2: 

My reading is that Burnt is most probably innocent because she knew Nyali was being protected.

[paranoia]WGG.[/paranoia] GB Burnt requires GB Nyali.

 

3: Lopen's actions (fishing for info Wilson had) don't make sense if Wilson is evil. Nyali's actions (getting Lopen lynched) don't make sense if she's evil.

 

Really, I don't think either of them are evil. Kynedath

My reading is that Burnt is most probably innocent because she knew Nyali was being protected.

 

[little wilson she/her]

1: wow. Wilson changed her mind about me. I distinctly remember her telling me that she was like, 99.99% sure I was still good.

 

I changed my mind about you less than 48 hours after I said that to you. My logic behind my reasoning when I thought you were good was faulty. I thought it your emotions were genuine, hence the tunnel. What I forgot (and someone else reminded me of) was that you'd been attacked and were kind of "dead" for 2 hours. Regardless of your alignment, the emotions there will still be there, and will be easy to channel across an alignment change. So that emotional pull with the tunnel would hold true, but it doesn't mean that you are Noble still.

 

I didn't inform you of my change in thought because if you're Noble, you don't really need to know, and if you're Ghostblood, it's best if you keep thinking I trust you. But there were people who were aware that I didn't trust you. Mark is one of them. El was another. Mark was actually the one who asked the question that got me to rethink things and put you back at neutral.

[Zas678 he/him]

Yes, I received a Shardblade last night. It seems that it came from Wilson, unless some funky stuff is going on. 

Here's what happened last night cycle from my point of view.

 

So during the night (about 3:30 AM), Burnt messages me, asking what my opinions of Wilson are, then, unexpectedly at roll over, Mail informs me that I received a Shardblade. Burnt immediately messages me asking me if I received an item. I told her that I had, surprisingly, and asked her if she knew it was from, and I also told her that Wilson seemed presumed innocent, but I was still wary of her.

Burnt replied that Wilson claims that she gave it to me, and that Burnt has been suspicious of Wilson, since Wilson was the only one who knew about her item at her reset. 

 

Admittedly, I didn't catch that the Shardblade that Nyali was talking about was the same one I got when I first posted. Then the whole thing came out in thread. 

 

I wasn't contacted by Wilson about any of this- I messaged her this morning, and she told me that she didn't message me because it was a spur of the moment decision and she forgot to include me in the plan, and then life happened right after the rollover.

 

So let's look at four options.

 

One. Nyali is evil. This seems very unlikely do to the multitude of villagery things Nyali has done.

 

Two. Wilson is evil. So that means that Wilson said the blade would go to Nyali, but instead puts out a kill order on Nyali (or is aware of it). For reasons unknown, Wilson decides to give the Shardblade to me. When she realizes that Nyali was protected instead, Wilson claims that her gift to Nyali was redirected to me to try and cast the blame on me. Burnt takes the bait, telling Wilson that if I got the redirected blade, I must be evil, so Wilson's releaved. But then, Nyali sees through it, and accuses Wilson. Wilson now states that she was suspicious of Nyali, so that's why she sent it to me. 

 

If this is true, why not let me know? She could've told me that she was giving me a Shardblade because she believed I was good? I don't know. I can't figure out why Wilson would even give me a Shardblade in this circumstance, and then not communicate with me. I suppose it only makes sense if both of us were Ghostbloods. 

 

Three. Burnt is evil. Burnt starts trying to push me to be a little more suspicious of Wilson. Wilson sees something funny going on with either Nyali or Burnt, and decides to give me the Shardblade, because she didn't want it falling into bad hands. A different Ghostblood tries to kill Nyali and fails. At rollover, when Wilson gives the misdirection to Nyali and Burnt, Burnt starts trying to make Wilson suspicious of me, while Nyali decides to go after Wilson. Burnt's happy as long as it's a villager who's under suspicion, so she goes along with that new plan.

 

This makes sense to me because it seems odd that Burnt seems to trust both Wilson and I when we speak with her, but then she tells us privately that she's suspicious of us. 

 

Four. All three are good. That would mean that motivations and such stand pretty much as they've been explained in thread. 

 

Of the four options, I think that 3 or 4 makes the most sense to me. I will currently go with Burnt, but I could probably be persuaded to go for someone else.

 

EDIT- 

 

I realized what Evil!Wilson's motivation for giving me the item would be- to place me with the guilt. The GB's kill Nyali, then Wilson cries in the thread that her Shardblade was redirected to me instead of Nyali, and I get lynched with the murder of Nyali. It's possible. But I still think that Wilson's tone this game has been of a villager than an Eliminator. 

 

But then again, maybe just the fact that I received a Shardblade from her makes me trust her more.

 

Double Edit- Retracted vote on Burnt.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

hrmph.

So who's left....

alv- he's still alive right? Idon't know about him. He doesn't appear to be following game and said as much when I pmed him. when I asked if he wanted pms with anyone, he completely forgot kas was playing (I asked him if he wanted a pm with Kas) might imply he is good? idk?

mark- highly unlikely. at least, he's not been doing the kill. and if there's only one more eliminator, that clears him. if there's two, it doesn't but would mean the other is active.

Stink- maybe. Wilson seemed to believe that a thief was working with eliminators. theif seems to be elb, who thanked Wilson. I could maybe see stink being evil but he's seemed more villagey

nyali- would be so very impressed if was evil. basically I just really don't want to even consider that you could be evil.

Twei- prob not evil? yeah I don't think she's evil.

Burnt-could be. but was apparently pain knifed which would have stopped the GB kill if I did it. I don't exactly have many actions to play with. tunneling on Wilson though.

Wilson- prob evil. if only one more eliminator it's prob her. but then... idk. I really don't know anymore.

.Zas- I really don't know...

----

I am lost. Who's evil guys?

Wilson

[little wilson she/her]

You missed Sheep and Kyne, Burnt.

 

Also, I'd think there's 2-3 left. Not just 1. If there were only 1, that would make a 4 player team in a 28 player game, with the village starting with 3 Soulcaster, 2 Shardblades, and at least 1 Grandbow (possibly 2). Plus at least 1 Artifabrian (probably 2). That's a huge amount of power. I highly doubt they'd only have 4. 5-6 is far more reasonable for a 28 player game.

 

Which means out of the 10 players (I believe) left in the game, 2-3 are evil and 7-8 are good.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

right sorry. wasnt going off a player list like I probably should have.

hm.

kyne- seems bored villager so is prob good.

sheep- also dunno. could see him being evil.

Wilson, I'm going to back off on my tunneling a bit. if you're evil, we are probably stuffed.

orlok, Lopen, Kas.... I can see having two players more like Zas, sheep or Stink fitting with that team.

[Nyali she/her]

There could be two eliminators left. Actually, there probably are. Possibilities include Wilson+Zas, Sheep+Alvron, Burnt+Sheep, Burnt+Alvron, Macen+Sheep/Alvron/Burnt. (I got lazy at the end there.) I could see Wilson with Sheep out Alvron. I really don't think Kynedath is evil. I know Stink, Twei, and Mark aren't. I need to look back and check something with Twei, but I dunno if there's enough time left to sort through everything...

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

I'm changing my heir to Nyali

Edited May 16, 2016 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Zas678 he/him]

Current vote tally-

Wilson- Nyali, Burnt, Mark

Burnt- Wilson, Zas

Mark- Stink, 

Kynedath- Wilson

 

So it's currently a tie between Wilson and Burnt. Wilson's got Shardplate with at least one hit left on it (though I think it's recharged by now), and it's unclear if Burnt has Shardplate or not. 

 

EDIT- Burnt is really trying to push that she's innocent. Preparing for her items to go to a semi-confirmed person, canceling her vote on Wilson. Is this her being useful? Or trying to have Wilson or I change our vote on her? I'm unsure.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

I do not have a shardplate. lynch me, and I will die.

[Nyali she/her]

So, what I'm trying to work through is why one of the Ghostbloods redirected Mark's T2 action and not his T1A action. The action was redirected to Zas. I can see three possibilities that make Zas have to be Noble, and one that would make him (and probably Wilson too) Ghostblood.

I had been saying that I didn't think Zas was Ghostblood, but that was before I thought about what Wilson was saying and what she did. If Wilson hadn't realized that item transfers can't be redirected due to order of actions, then it makes sense for her to use the lie that her item transfer was redirected. If the Ghostbloods hadn't realized that item transfers were immune to redirects, then it makes sense for them to target one of Mark's actions, specifically the T2 one.

Why T2? Because if Mark used his blade to attack, they didn't want to accidentally redirect an attack to the person they wanted to steal the Blade. If Mark had a defensive item, he would want to leave T1D open because it had to be for Half-Shards or Shardplate to protect you. T2 is the obvious choice for an attempt at redirecting a Shardblade transfer.

If this is true, then both Zas and Wilson would likely be eliminators. This is honestly the most likely situation in my eyes, but I've been wrong many times before (and right a few too).

Edit: the other three possibilities are:

The Ghostbloods meant to redirect Mark's T1A action, but forgot to specify, resulting in a random action being redirected.

The next possibility is that they were hoping to redirect a Pain Knife to Zas.

Then there's the chance they were trying to redirect an Emotion Bracelet hoping confuse us and hide from being caught in the act.

All three of those would make Zas be Noble.

Edited May 16, 2016 by Nyali

[Zas678 he/him]

What turn was this? Was this the most recent night? 

 

And what you're saying is Mark's T2 action (which I assume is some seeking role), got sent to me?

 

EDIT- And why would the Eliminators try to redirect both the "transfer" and the seeking on to me if I'm an Eliminator? That seems to be drawing far too much attention to me if I was an Eliminator.