Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[STINK he/him]

'Course I got an item, I don't kill people and not take something to remember it

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I don't think so. I think we only get whoever killed him, not whoever attacked him.

That being said, the Action order seems to imply that Grandbow attacks are before Ghostblood attacks. So wouldn't it be the Ghostbloods that kill Mark? Or is that order of attacks randomized, or first come first serve?

All attacks happen at the same time.

 

It seems when Maill originally posted the results, only the Grandbow hit was included, which implies Stink landed the killing blow. Which may be why he was the only one revealed. Maill, with multiple attacks hitting the same Full Shardbearer, are they all revealed or just one? If just one, how is it determined (given attacks are simultaneous in the order of actions)?

 

Edit: This is what happens when I leave tabs open

It was randomized to see which broke the Plate and which killed him. Only the Full Shardbearer's killer is revealed.

[AliasSheep]

Thinking about it more, Mark's plate had one normal hit of protection left, didn't it? So, Maill could have randomized who broke the plate and who dealt the killing blow. If true, that suggests that Stink isn't the Ghostblood killer. I'm willing to believe that he just hasn't been paying much attention and killed Mark on a whim, despite us knowing he had a Shardblade (edit: and DC's plate too from what I've shared, which we also knew had a hit left from what's been shared publicly). At least Stink or Mark's heir has that blade now, not the Ghostbloods...

Looking at things not through the lens of irritation and frustration, I think it's most likely that the Ghostbloods include at least one of: Alvron or Sheep. If Mark had handed off his blade in our game of hot potato intended to keep the Ghostbloods guessing about which of us had it like he meant to do (but I guess he forgot to submit actions, or he was lying to me), I would have killed Sheep last night. The lack of Shardblade kills suggests that Zas could be a Noble, and that supports Wilson being Noble and just not trusting the rest of us.

So, I guess, Stink and Sheep.

And, sorry for overreacting to irritation and frustration.

It's not an excuse, but I'm going through puberty (again - second time's the charm?) and such overreaction is a thing that is apparently normal.

I'll do my best to rein it in from here on out.

I am genuinely surprised to still be alive by this point, to be honest.

[Nyali she/her]

I am genuinely surprised to still be alive by this point, to be honest.

Sorry! Blame DC. If he hadn't started acting super suspicious, you probably wouldn't be. If you want to help me correct that, you are welcome to cast your vote for Sheep too?

Edited May 17, 2016 by Nyali

[AliasSheep]

Sorry! Blame DC. If he hadn't started acting super suspicious, you probably wouldn't be. If you want to help me correct that, you are welcome to cast your vote for Sheep too?

I.. can't tell the tone of this comment, and... yeah.

 

My point is I don't understand why I haven't been GB killed yet already.  I don't quite understand why you think anyone would have killed me, could you clarify please?

[Macen he/him]

I.. can't tell the tone of this comment, and... yeah.

 

My point is I don't understand why I haven't been GB killed yet already.  I don't quite understand why you think anyone would have killed me, could you clarify please?

My guess is you haven't told a GB what your items are / your items aren't priority target. That's the reason I'm still alive.

[Nyali she/her]

... can other people vote? Please? Even if it's against me? The game isn't that fun or interesting when other people aren't participating

[Zas678 he/him]

We're not sure what to put, honestly. But I will go again for Kynedath. Is his plate shattered now? Or did the first one recharge?

Edit- it would be nice if we were able to get some information from T2 items publicized. Who was blocked? Who wasn't? Who was or wasn't able to make that Ghostblood kill?

I don't have a T2 item, or I would share that information.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Sheep

 

Why? Well. 

 

Mainly cause I think the last eliminators are either you, Alv, Kyne or stink. Alv i think is less likely. Stink could just be trigger happy for all we know. Kyne has seemed to be a bored villager, and i have no thoughts on you. So, yeah.

[Nyali she/her]

We're not sure what to put, honestly. But I will go again for Kynedath. Is his plate shattered now? Or did the first one recharge?

Edit- it would be nice if we were able to get some information from T2 items publicized. Who was blocked? Who wasn't? Who was or wasn't able to make that Ghostblood kill?

I don't have a T2 item, or I would share that information.

 

I gave my T2 item response above. Also, my other two actions were filled with stuff I couldn't do - attack with the blade that Mark said he gave me and defend with the plate Mark said he gave me. So, if you believe me, then I couldn't have done the kill, but that requires you to believe me, which would kinda mean you believe me already, so that kinda defeats the point...

Edited May 18, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

I will throw my vote on Stink. I had voiced my suspicions of him before to a few people. Don't have time ATM to link to it, but it had something to do with him backing up most of Lopen's suspicions and the like.

[STINK he/him]

I don't even know what Lopen's suspicions were. But alright, I can see your point.

[Nyali she/her]

I will throw my vote on Stink. I had voiced my suspicions of him before to a few people. Don't have time ATM to link to it, but it had something to do with him backing up most of Lopen's suspicions and the like.

 

So, you think me successfully defending him from the Ghostblood attack was a WGG? I've been wondering about that... If you think it was a WGG (and I'm not arguing against it here, I have no idea), do you think they expected me to use the Painrial on him, or do you think he was otherwise protected as well (holding Shardplate or the target of a GB Painrial)?

 

I'm asking because the only person who knew I had a Painrial the night after I declared Stink my heir was Wilson. I'm not trying to argue for Stink or Wilson to be Ghostblood here in this post, I'm just trying to form connections ("if X is Ghostblood, chances are that Y is also Ghostblood," and so on). There are 2-3 of them out there...

Edited May 18, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

My top suspicions are Stink, Wilson, Sheep. WGG is the only thing I can think of. It isn't a strong ploy, but it's been quite a while since anyone has tried one, I wouldn't be surprised if they had. I just don't get the going after Mark. It was obvious he had a shardblade and had had it since the beginning (unless someone gave it to him, which I highly doubted would have happened). And the chance of Mail giving the GB one of their win conditions from the beginning seemed VERY unlikely to me.

It's possible he vig killed, but I see it more likely that he didn't. It also seems VERY improbable that stink AND the GB attacked mark the same night WHEN he had plate without coordinating it. Maybe it's happenstance, but it's very unlikely happenstance.

[Zas678 he/him]

I think I understand the GB reasoning- they won't bother to go after anyone under suspicion, because why bother?

They don't want to go after anyone "cleared", because while they have, they keep being blocked or protected.

So that leaves the item heavy. It was mentioned in the thread that Mark had a blade, so the GB go after him

There's also this. You only double tap someone if you think or know they're protected. If the GB knew or assumed that Mark had Shardplate, then they knew he was a Shardblade, and they knew that they might get revealed with the double tap.

Unless they thought he had a half Shard, or they didn't realize the Shardbearer rules. That's also possible, in which case Stink looks very suspicious.

[STINK he/him]

Yo having a Shardblade ain't a reason for someone to be good. You're all saying it like it basically made him 100% inno to anyone that isn't a fool

[Macen he/him]

Yo having a Shardblade ain't a reason for someone to be good. You're all saying it like it basically made him 100% inno to anyone that isn't a fool

I agree with having a shardblade. I don't agree with starting with a shardblade.

[Nyali she/her]

There were two obvious points in Mark's favor - starting with a Shardblade and not using said Shardblade until expressly requested to do so by the town, and only using it in ways expressly requested by the town (or at least a large portion of it). Something like five or six people asked him to use it the first time, and five people asked him to use it the second time. Unless you think there are five GBs left, that's not GB behavior in the slightest. Killing Mark makes zero sense for Stink to have done if he's a Noble.

 

But, I'm not convinced Stink necessarily cares about acting sensibly He wanted a Shardblade, so he attacked someone who he thought had a Shardblade, not caring if they were Town or not. It's just like DC's duel declaration on someone he openly admitted he thought was a Noble. Something done just because he could and was bored. It's not about winning, it's about "hey, I have this neat toy I haven't used yet that I want to use." I guess some people like playing like that, and that's fine, I guess. It's their game too, they can play it however they want.

 

But I'm not convinced it was anything more than that from Stink. "This is boring, might as well shoot someone. Who to shoot? How about the guy with the shinier weapon so I can attack with that next time?" There's so many vig kills in this game, any bored townie can just tank the town for fun.

 

So, personally, Stink isn't high on my list of suspicions. I think he's probably going to kill another Noble tonight for fun, possibly me for this post, but I also think we should try to lynch an actual Ghostblood if we can this turn instead of going after the bored townie with a gun (at least, I think of him as a townie, you're welcome to disagree - I'm not trying to put words in other people's mouth, I'm just talking from my own perspective).

[STINK he/him]

I didn't want a Shardblade! Bows are much cooler anyway.

I've already explained it

And starting with a Shardblade is something I don't see as 'inno'.

[Nyali she/her]

You know, I never actually read your sig before. I generally ignore sigs, so I hadn't realized what yours said until just now. Now everything makes sense.

[Alvron]

Nyali, did you tell anyone about Mark giving you his Plate/Blade during the night?  Do you know if Mark told anyone other than you?

[Nyali she/her]

Nyali, did you tell anyone about Mark giving you his Plate/Blade during the night?  Do you know if Mark told anyone other than you?

 

Yes, Twei and Burnt. But, he didn't give it. He had it on him when he died, and giving items happens first before anything (except thievery). I assume he didn't submit orders at all, since he didn't use the blade either.

 

EDIT: Also, Mark told them, not me.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Nyali

[Alvron]

ok.   I'm just going to type out my thoughts.

 

Stink admits that he targeted Mark with his Bow therefore;

 

If Stink is a GB then the following didn't know that Mark wasn't passing his Plate and therefore had reason to double tap him.

Alvron, Wilson, Sheep, Zas and Macen and Kyne.  So one or more of them is likely GB.

 

If Stink is Noble then it's unlikely he knew the GBs were going to attack Mark so those that knew Mark was passing his Plate knew he would be open to attack.  Those people are; Nyali, Burnt and Twei.  One or more of them is likely to be a GB if Stink is noble.

 

There is no way for anyone to know that Mark didn't place his orders so the fact he didn't isn't really a factor.  Either way, knowing Stinks alignment is beneficial to the village.

 

Edit:  Forgot Kyne.  Sorry Kyne.

 

Also, it's possable that Stink is the last GB and double tapped Mark on his own but I'm skeptical of that.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Alvron

[Zas678 he/him]

Was it publically known that Mark had DCs plate? Or did I just miss that in thread?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Was it publically known that Mark had DCs plate? Or did I just miss that in thread?

 

I don't think so. I thought it was just the blade that was known.

 

In an effort to get my brain into gear, here are some thoughts on players:

People I trust:

Wilson: I'm not dead. (Running with the theory Elodin was killed because of a soulcaster death, would you prefer to target the guess or the person you'd seen with an emotion bracelet?) Lopen went fishing for soulcaster info which Wilson already had. Passed a Shardblade to...

Zas: Didn't attack with the blade. Is therefore likely village, given the remaining numbers, and therefore Wilson is likely village for the same reason.

STINK: Attacked by the GBs, and protected by Nyali. Trust depends on Nyali being village.

Nyali: Got Lopen lynched.

 

People I'm not sure about:

Alv - Has been super quiet. Was running QF, so not an alignment indicator.

Macen - Also super quiet, claiming RL reasons

Burnt - Tentative trust (generally helpful in PMs) but nothing firm.

 

People I suspect:

Kynedath - Has only been active to stay alive, but that was quite a deliberate effort

Sheep - Seems much less present in this game than the others he's played/playing

 

So while Alv's logic would be good if Mark's plate was known, I think it would be better to lynch, say, Sheep.