Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Zas678 he/him]

Well done. Well done indeed. I wouldn't have guessed that he was one of the remaining Ghostbloods. 

 

Now the question remains- who's the (assumed) last Ghostblood? 

[Macen he/him]

I pain knifed alv. So, that is a possible reason there is no GB kill? I can't prove that I did - but that's what I did.

*EDIT* Also, alv was active RIGHT after the night ended, so I'm guessing he was also active before (time doesn't show history). So, he probably put in an action. Might have only been a soulcaster or painrial though.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Macen

[Macen he/him]

Mail: DId you think it would be funny to make everyone who was an eliminator in LG5 an eliminator in this game? lol. Kas and Alv both.

[Nyali she/her]

That was my hit, by the way. I changed my mind at the last second and hit Alv instead of Macen. I'm glad I did.

 

 

EDIT: What's our player list at this point? Kyne, Stink, Macen, Twei, Wilson, and me?

 

EDIT2: Oh, yeah, and Zas! Hi, Zas! You're still around! So, that's seven.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

That was my hit, by the way. I changed my mind at the last second and hit Alv instead of Macen. I'm glad I did.

Well done. I was originally going to pain knife Stink. Then I switched to you, then Wilson, then finally settled on Alv. I couldn't make up my mind - but he was "active" and not posting - so it made me suspicious.

*EDIT* Fixed crappy grammar/wording. Don't worry, I know it's still somewhat crappy.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Macen

[Nyali she/her]

Well done. I was originally going to pain knife Stink. Then I switched to you, then Wilson, then finally settled on Alv. I couldn't make up my mind - but he was "active" and not posted - so it made me suspicious.

 

Yeah, same. When you mentioned the idea that the GBs were just sitting back and letting us kill each other as long as we weren't putting active suspicion on them and kept vigging each other, it suddenly struck me that Alv hadn't posted much and was sitting back and letting us do what we were doing. But, he was active on the forums and in other games. It just seemed like such a good tactic at that point, especially with none of us pointing it out or calling him out on it, that I had to hit him.

[Zas678 he/him]

Okay. So from a general standpoint, here seems to be the consensus:

Good

Twei

Nyali

Possibly good

Stink

Maybes

Zas

Wilson

Macen

Kyne

That seems accurate, right? So since this is possibly the last round, I'm going to show my items.

All I've had for most the game is a halfshard. As far as I know, I haven't ever been attacked. I received the Shardblade from Wilson, then gave it away to Twei that same night, which is why I didn't make any kills.

I gave it away because 1, I knew if I went after someone and I was wrong, I was dead. 2, I was worried that I would be killed (as Mark was), and I didn't want the GB to have my Shardblade.

I have been in PMs with Wilson, Burnt, Lopen (in a coPM with Burnt), and Stink with his one turn spanreed.

I haven't received any other items.

[Nyali she/her]

Sounds right to me. Personally, the only person on that list who hasn't given me any reason to trust them is Kyne. Of course, one of the people who's given me a reason to trust them could still be the GB instead. Still, I'm going to have to go with Kyne, yet again, for now. What do other people think?

 

 

(EDIT: Wording - double negatives aren't not confusing.)

Edited May 26, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

I think Kyne is as safe a vote as anyone else. I think the numbers are strongly in our favor now - which is good.

[STINK he/him]

Kynedath does have only the single item, if any of you wanted to know.

[Nyali she/her]

Kynedath does have only the single item, if any of you wanted to know.

 

When did you check? Last night?

 

EDIT: Actually, it doesn't matter when you checked. If Kyne is GB and was Alv's heir, then the Painrial would have been destroyed since Kyne already had a defensive item. So, it wouldn't show up on a spy.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

When did you check? Last night?

 

EDIT: Actually, it doesn't matter when you checked. If Kyne is GB and was Alv's heir, then the Painrial would have been destroyed since Kyne already had a defensive item. So, it wouldn't show up on a spy.

Does anyone have time to go through the GB kills and the items the GB had when they died and see if that adds up? If we are missing an item (and stink is telling the truth - which is probably likely), then it might eliminate Kyne as a suspect.

[Nyali she/her]

Does anyone have time to go through the GB kills and the items the GB had when they died and see if that adds up? If we are missing an item (and stink is telling the truth - which is probably likely), then it might eliminate Kyne as a suspect.

This can be hard due to items discarding if you already have one, or one in the same category (for 1A/1Ds).

[Zas678 he/him]

Kyne

[Macen he/him]

This can be hard due to items discarding if you already have one, or one in the same category (for 1A/1Ds).

Hard but not impossible. We have like 30 hours, figured it's worth an analysis if someone has time.

[Nyali she/her]

Hard but not impossible. We have like 30 hours, figured it's worth an analysis if someone has time.

 

I might later, but I don't have the time right now to go through all 49 pages x.x I really want to though, to see if it's clear who the 5th Ghostblood is from how people have talked about the other four.

[Kynedath]

Kynedath does have only the single item, if any of you wanted to know.

True. I only have the shardplate.

Edited May 26, 2016 by Kynedath

[Nyali she/her]

Not true. I only have the shardplate.

 

Isn't that what he said? You only have the one item (the Shardplate we all know you have)?

[Kynedath]

Sorry. I had misread the original post. I though it said that I did *not* have just the one item.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Alv being GB makes me a little more suspicious of Zas and Wilson. Gonna vote for Kyne though.

[Nyali she/her]

I would expect both Wilson and Zas to be or neither. I'm having a hard time seeing only one as Ghostblood. I don't think there would be six starting Ghostbloods in a 28 person game, but I don't know your standard distributions here, and the crazy number of vig powers and bulletproofs changes things in weird ways as far as balance goes, so I guess anything is possible.

But, it could one of them running a long-game ploy to make us not suspect them...

Edited May 27, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

I'm guessing 5 is probably the number as well - it's possibly 6 though. very very much doubt it's 7.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Writeup will be late tonight, probably.

[Nyali she/her]

Okay, so, I think the key to ending this is the Night 5 kill attempt. There are two possibilities on who did the kill attempt - Alvron could have done it if Elbereth lied to us about his action in an attempt to prolong the game. If Elbereth didn't lie, then the last (I hope) Ghostblood had to have done it.

 

I know I didn't do it and I'm not going to bother posting a defense of myself (I feel my actions afterward, especially the fact that the Ghostbloods attacked me Night 6 is defense enough).

 

I know that Zas didn't do it. I scanned him with an Emotion Bracelet that night and he took no actions.

 

I have tons of reasons to trust Twei, especially her protecting me on Night 6. It could have been a sort of WGG, but I highly doubt it.

 

Kynedath could have done it if he was faking his inactivity or returned before the night ended. I don't know when he came back from being inactive, but it was either just before or just after orders had to be in for that night. It's a very interesting time for him to return and makes it a real possibility that it was him.

 

I have no knowledge of anything that would have prevented Macen from performing that kill.

 

I have no knowledge of anything that would have prevented Wilson from performing that kill. However, her giving a Shardblade to Zas is of note.

 

Stink's role action that night was redirected. However, Stink has declared he is a Spy. That means if he was dual-roled, there is a chance he performed two role actions and the Spy one was redirected. But, on top of that 50% chance, I successfully protected him from a Ghostblood kill. While that could have been a WGG, the more maybes, the less of a chance that it was him.

 

 

 

 

I feel that the only possible way for Zas to be evil is if Elbereth lied to us about scanning Alvron (meaning Alvron performed that kill, not the other Ghostblood, so someone doing nothing wouldn't mean they're clean). So, my suspicion list is currently:

 

Most likely Ghostblood: Kynedath

Could be Ghostblood: Wilson, Macen

Could only be Ghostblood if something happened that I don't think happened: Zas, Stink

Completely trust as Noble: Twei, Nyali

 

 

How do other people feel?

Edited May 27, 2016 by Nyali

[Kynedath]

Alright, let me clear one thing up. I'm not a ghostblood. In fact, I will bet anything you care to put on the line that I'm not. If I turn out to be a ghostblood, then I will do whatever you want. Just stop trying to kill me!