Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[STINK he/him]

Dying is usually good. No-one would doubt it then.

[Kynedath]

Or, you know, I could stay alive and find some other way to sate your bloodlust. That would be good.

 

By the way, why didn't you try to kill me last night? You seem dead set on it today, but Nyali was the only one to try and kill me. Unless they are lying and you did it. In which case, it would be a good idea to speak up.

[STINK he/him]

Cause I knew you'd die through the Lynch. Three attempts for something init?

[Kynedath]

yes, but would you not rather kill me at night and then have the next day's lynch just in case, against all odd, impossibly, I'm not actually an eliminator?

[STINK he/him]

Na that makes sense and the only thing that I've done that made sense this game was to stop making sense

[Kynedath]

Right. I almost forgot about the statements in your signature. I should have known.

[STINK he/him]

Also the super secret trust group PM of 100% inno people is pretty dead

[Kynedath]

. . . So you take it out on me? I have already told you. I'm not an eliminator. I'm not to blame for the deaths of the innocents.

[STINK he/him]

That's something that an eliminator would say.

[Kynedath]

Can't tell if you are antagonizing me or not.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Edit- It seems the only Twei can know is if either Twei or someone in contact with Twei is a spy. They would've seen that I had one item, and it was a painrail. Is that right Twei?

I spied on you, and discovered you had two items, one being a painrial.

[Macen he/him]

I spied on you, and discovered you had two items, one being a painrial.

damnation. That is the only way he could have been ok...

[Nyali she/her]

Zas did nothing last night. I know this from an EB. If we only have one eliminator left and Kynedath didn't try to kill me as a villager, then we're back to "it had to be either the person with the Shardblade who isn't me, or someone with a Soulcaster."

That means, Macen is in the clear because he used a Pain Knife. Zas is cleared because of my EB. That leaves Wilson, who used the Shardblade and claims redirection, Twei who has had a Soulcaster from the start but who has been using it in a very village sort of way all game, Kynedath who I actually believe couldn't have a Soulcaster after some clarifications from Maill about items, Stink who can't have it either because Grandbow...

So, Alvron's Soulcaster went to me. I chose not to take it. That sends it to my heir, Twei. Twei already had a Soulcaster, so the Soulcaster that Alvron had gets removed from the game. This leaves Twei's caster and potentially another.

But, no one can have that other caster unless I'm mistaken. Stink had a Grandbow, and no one has died with a Caster since then other than Alvron, and we know where his caster went. Similarly, Kynedath was scanned and had no items other than his plate since then. Macen has a Pain Knife. Zas didn't do anything last night.

Doesn't that mean it had to be either Wilson or Twei who tried to kill me?

Can someone find fault in my logic? Please?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

The next part of Kayden's Saga is up!

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I spied on you, and discovered you had two items, one being a painrial.

Maill has clarified in my PM; that should have been one item. Apologies, Zas.

 

Nyali, clearing Macen requires trusting Zas when he says he tried to take an action., or otherwise confirming he has a knife since Seonid's death (I think that's when they got the second soulcaster?).

 

I used my Soulcaster last cycle to redirect Macen's role action to himself. There's no way to prove that though, unless Macen has a role I'm not aware of.

[Macen he/him]

I was told that I pain knifed Zas. Zas has confirmed this. So, that leaves two people saying I used my action (it was my only action) on Zas.

That makes me suspicious of you Twei.

[Nyali she/her]

Twei - maybe you missed it, but I scanned Zas and he did nothing last night. Yet, an attack hit me, either because Wilson attacked me or you redirected her (or another soulcaster, but see my logic above for why no one else could have done it). For it to be Zas, Macen, Zas, AND I would have to be lying. (EDIT: Oops, somehow misread your post as talking about clearing Zas, not Macen. Still, Macen correctly points out that two people would have to be lying for Macen to not be cleared.)

 

Unless someone successfully disputes my logic, I'm thinking Kynedath even though it means that Kyne's Plate regenerates and, if we don't kill him now but want to later, it'll take another THREE lynches in a row.

 

Wilson has plate, and has for the entire game. She didn't start with it though, she says someone gave it to her, which is weirdly suspicious (yet possible) for a non-Ghostblood. I've suspected her off and on for a while, but recently she's been doing some trust-inspiring things. Twei, on the other hand, has done trust-inspiring things all game.

 

 

Now, here's a fun piece of logic. Alvron died on Night 9. This means that, at the end of Night 9, his heir would have obtained his Painrial. However, if his heir already had a defensive item, his heir could choose to keep their old defensive item. This sends the Painrial to his heir, or someone random if their heir is dead. One can assume their heir would be Alvron or a random villager, so in either case, someone random would have gotten it. That would be obtained at the end of the turn (Day 10), and they would get to choose to keep it or not during Night 10.

 

On Day 10, Zas obtained the Painrial, which he kept instead of his Half-shard. His Half-shard then went to HIS heir, or a random player, which they would obtain at the end of the following turn, which was Night 10.

 

On Night 10, I obtained a Half-shard, which was immediately used to save my life. Zas, am I your heir (or is your heir dead)?

 

 

Following the above logic, I conclude that the last Ghostblood (who was Alvron's heir) had another defensive item, which was NOT a Painrial (if you get a second of the same item, instead of one passing on to your heir or a random player, the duplicate is destroyed and removed from the game. It's how I know the Soulcaster I passed up was removed from the game).

 

What non-Painrial defensive items remain in the game? I only know of Kynedath and Wilson's Shardplate. I don't think there are any half-shards left. Is there a third suit of Shardplate, or was it destroyed due to duplication?

 

In any event, this strengthens my belief that it's Wilson, even though yes, I know she has Shardplate and lynching her does practically nothing. She's actually a full Shardbearer, so if I'm right that it's her and not Twei, this will take a while. I can go dig up things Twei has done that make me want to trust her over Wilson.

 

But, here's something to consider - is it possible for Twei to have had Shardplate or a Half-shard on Night 9?

 

 

(EDIT2: Also, Kyne, I forget if you've said or not - is that a suit of Plate you started with, or is that the one that DC had? Telling the truth either way does NOT implicate you or anything, we've already established that it can't be you. I'm just trying to track the non-Painrial defensive items.)

Edited June 1, 2016 by Nyali

[Kynedath]

The next part of Kayden's Saga is up!

Yay! I'm such a cool guy! Thanks!

 

 

Zas did nothing last night. I know this from an EB. If we only have one eliminator left and Kynedath didn't try to kill me as a villager, then we're back to "it had to be either the person with the Shardblade who isn't me, or someone with a Soulcaster."

That means, Macen is in the clear because he used a Pain Knife. Zas is cleared because of my EB. That leaves Wilson, who used the Shardblade and claims redirection, Twei who has had a Soulcaster from the start but who has been using it in a very village sort of way all game, Kynedath who I actually believe couldn't have a Soulcaster after some clarifications from Maill about items, Stink who can't have it either because Grandbow...

So, Alvron's Soulcaster went to me. I chose not to take it. That sends it to my heir, Twei. Twei already had a Soulcaster, so the Soulcaster that Alvron had gets removed from the game. This leaves Twei's caster and potentially another.

But, no one can have that other caster unless I'm mistaken. Stink had a Grandbow, and no one has died with a Caster since then other than Alvron, and we know where his caster went. Similarly, Kynedath was scanned and had no items other than his plate since then. Macen has a Pain Knife. Zas didn't do anything last night.

Doesn't that mean it had to be either Wilson or Twei who tried to kill me?

Can someone find fault in my logic? Please?

So does that mean that I am in the clear(ish)? At least for now?

 

Also, does that mean that we have cleared Zas as well?

Edited June 1, 2016 by Kynedath

[Nyali she/her]

So does that mean that I am in the clear(ish)? At least for now?

 

Yes. I'm working off two different sets of logic here, two things that I think must both be true (Alvron's heir is the last Ghostblood, and the last Ghostblood tried to kill me last night), and though you aren't cleared by one, you definitely are by the other.

 

 

 

Also, on another point of logic, I'd like to point out that the Ghostbloods haven't tried to kill in a while. Wilson has been setting up her Spanreed, leaving the defensive spot open so she can use her Plate, and attacking with her Shardblade, leaving no room for a role ability.

[Kynedath]

(EDIT2: Also, Kyne, I forget if you've said or not - is that a suit of Plate you started with, or is that the one that DC had? Telling the truth either way does NOT implicate you or anything, we've already established that it can't be you. I'm just trying to track the non-Painrial defensive items.)

I started with it.

 

My items have not changed at all during this game whatsoever.

[Nyali she/her]

So who has DC's plate? I think it went to Mark. When he died, where did it go?

[little wilson she/her]

I've suspected her off and on for a while, but recently she's been doing some trust-inspiring things.

 

Do you mean when you suspected me because DC was lying about what was going on in my PM with him? I can't control the lies of another person and he was lying the entire game. That's the only time I can recall that you were suspicious of me. Well, that and when I passed the Blade to Zas instead of you, but I explained my reasons for that.

 

 

Now, here's a fun piece of logic. Alvron died on Night 9. This means that, at the end of Night 9, his heir would have obtained his Painrial. However, if his heir already had a defensive item, his heir could choose to keep their old defensive item. This sends the Painrial to his heir, or someone random if their heir is dead. One can assume their heir would be Alvron or a random villager, so in either case, someone random would have gotten it. That would be obtained at the end of the turn (Day 10), and they would get to choose to keep it or not during Night 10.

 

On Day 10, Zas obtained the Painrial, which he kept instead of his Half-shard. His Half-shard then went to HIS heir, or a random player, which they would obtain at the end of the following turn, which was Night 10.

 

On Night 10, I obtained a Half-shard, which was immediately used to save my life. Zas, am I your heir (or is your heir dead)?

 

 

It's possible Alv didn't have an heir, similar to how Kas didn't have an heir. Or, since this is Alv, he decided to heir someone to make them look more suspicious for having a painrial/soulcaster (whichever didn't go to his killer) because they knew it would be a damning item.

 

Nyali, Burnt had a Half-Shard. I know she had a Half-Shard. Everyone knows she had a Half-Shard. She died with it. You were her heir. Stink got the Spanreed, and you ended up with everything else. Why are you claiming to have received a Half-Shard that saved your life last night? If that's really the case, what did you do with the Half-Shard you got from Burnt?

 

 

Also, on another point of logic, I'd like to point out that the Ghostbloods haven't tried to kill in a while. Wilson has been setting up her Spanreed, leaving the defensive spot open so she can use her Plate, and attacking with her Shardblade, leaving no room for a role ability.

 

Not so. I have no reason to activate my Spanreed on nights that I don't plan to use it. I activated it last night, yes. I did not activate it the night before that. In fact, the last time I activated my spanreed was when I started up the PM with you, me, and Twei. That was on the 18th. Which was 3-4 nights ago, I think. So I had my T2 action open for those 1-2 nights. By your logic, I should've been attacking. I had an action open. And yet, no attacks happened. I wonder why.... Maybe because it's not me? Just guessing here though. >>

 

 

I'd guess that Mark's Plate is with Stink since Stink killed him....

[Zas678 he/him]

My heir is Twei.

I'll post more about Wilson in a bit.

[Nyali she/her]

Just to note, I was slightly misleading. I received Burnt's Half-shard when she died. The one from Zas went to me last night, vanished due to being a duplicate, and then Burnt's half-shard was broken by the Shardblade. This doesn't really change anything.

 

At first, the misleading was to get whomever gave me the half-shard to say who they were because I thought it would clear them even if it didn't technically save me. After all, it was unlikely they knew I was Burnt's heir (I'm pretty sure she only told me in our direct PM), so there really wasn't a difference from them doing it deliberately. But, it quickly became clear that no one gave it to me intentionally and it was just random chance, so this little misdirection is totally pointless.

 

I do think this means there are no half-shards left in the game though? Or am I missing one?

 

 

EDIT: And Wilson, when I said I suspected you off and on all game, I wasn't really counting DC's lies. Various other things have made me suspect you all game, and I've told you like, nearly every time about it. And then you convinced me I was wrong. Well, I think at this point, it's one time too many? I really don't see how it could be anyone but you and Twei, and Twei hasn't outright lied to me about her actions before like you did when you juggled the Shardblade (which did wind up back with you, though the path it took makes it very unlikely that was anything but happenstance).

Edited June 1, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

At this point, it's more likely to get me killed than saved. I also have a half shard that I've had since the beginning of the game (I have told no one about it).

I haven't told anyone because, what's the point of having something that will only stop 1 type of attack if the enemy knows you have it and can just use the other type of attack?

I don't see how having it could make me look bad, and not telling about it and having Twei scan me WOULD look bad. I started with a Pain Knife and a Half-Shard. I found another pain knife at some point, which was destroyed since I already had one. That is 100% accounting for what items I've had.