Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[STINK he/him]

I know why I'm suspicious of Elbereth! 

 

But it's not just Elbereth It's more people who start PMs.

[Nyali she/her]

Nyali, that's not very standardized around here. In this game, I believe Maill's clarified that if you're redirected you will be notified who you were redirected to. In other games that hasn't been the case (LG16 is an excellent example of that). If you use a Painrial, you'll know if it succeeded becuase you won't be able to use it for a turn, because it has a cooldown. But I don't know if you'll be notified you've been attacked if you're protected.

 

Well, Trel seems to be waiting for their target to announce that they were attacked and not killed, but if they were protected by a Painrial (and I know I was since Joe's deathcry said I was), I don't know if they'd know. Also, I don't know if a Painrial's protection would even show up in the writeup, or just Shardplate's protection. I know that a Shardblade hitting a Half-shard did NOT show up in the writeup, since Burnt claims to have been hit and protected by a Half-shard and Joe confirms that their attempted Shardblade kill was redirected to Burnt.

 

 

 

EDIT: In other news, we, as a collective group, appear to be continuing to die from the bottom up. There's now only one person still acting as a buffer between me and the Curse of the Bottom - Trelagist. Note to self - next time, sign up sooner. Bottoms of lists are dangerous!

Edited May 2, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

Oh, and it seems that you are being my buffer

 

Thanks for that.

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

hm. my thoughts are taking longer then I thought to gather them. new ones are turning up and its late. ima sleep then finish compiling them.

[Seonid he/him]

Nyali - I might have missed this in earlier days of discussion; sorry, I'm still trying to catch up. How did you know that Trelagist had the Grandbow? You also imply that Orlok made the Grandbow for him.

 

Since I last posted, I have been wondering quite a bit about Orlok's item creations. If Nyali's implication is correct, I would be quite suspicious of Trelagist - I can't imagine any reason for Orlok to give a kill role to a non-Eliminator unless you were really worried about the Eliminator he gave it to being scanned. And Trelagist - as a pretty new player - seems an excellent choice to avoid being scanned. Low-profile, in a game with Wilson, Alvron, Kasimir, Joe, and a number of other high-profile and well-known players...

 

Almost enough to make me vote for you, Trell. I'll wait to see Nyali's evidence, though. I'd like to see if there's an alternative to you getting a Grandbow from Orlok.

 

My next question is this - the night before Orlok would have made the Grandbow, Wilson got a one-turn Spanreed. This was too early for her to have been a thief stealing it, so it must have been made for her by an Artifabrian. Orlok wouldn't have thought that he'd be revealed so soon, and to my knowledge we don't have anyone else publicly claiming to have received an item from an Artifabrian on any other turn. So, we don't have any justification for believing that there is more than one Artifabrian (at least, not yet - if anyone wants to come forward and admit that they received an item from an Artifabrian on either night, then we could change that).

 

If there is a second Artifabrian, they are almost certainly cleared, though. I really can't imagine this game being balanced if the Eliminators have access to two roles that could create new kills for them, in addition to the troll potential. With

 

Knowing Maill's trollishness, I'm certainly willing to believe that the Eliminators had the only Artifabrian. Which could put suspicion on Wilson for receiving the Spanreed.

 

Also, thanks Lopen for responding. I don't have anything hard on anyone else. I'd like to see Wilson's (and everyone else's) thoughts on the Artifabrian situation, and I'd like to see if anyone else has received an Artifabrian item.

[Nyali she/her]

Actually, unfortunately, Trelagist's confirmation that he did get the Grandbow that I guessed he had is not useful information. I had heard that someone redirected Orlok's role action target to Trelagist on the night he died. There were extra Grandbows last night, and Maill specifically clarified the order of actions such that Artifabrian came before death, so I assumed that one of the Grandbows was made by Orlok. Unfortunately, we don't know who Orlok's real target for the item was from this information.

 

Honestly, I asked the question I did for two real reasons. Since Trelagist had no way of knowing why I made my guess, if he was an eliminator, I was faintly hoping he would lie about it. But, there's no reason for him to lie about it regardless of his allegiance, I just though it was worth trying anyway just in case. The other reason was checking if the person who switched the action was telling the truth. Again, them telling the truth doesn't really mean much, but them lying would have meant something.

 

So, it was a failed attempt to gain information by startling someone with a question.

[Trelagist]

I do seem to have gotten it from Orlok. It has been clarified to me multiple times, by different players.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

There can be multiple thieves. Sorry for the confusing wording.

If someone is protected by a Painrial and attacked, they will be informed and so will the Painrial holder.

Yafeshan:

Last pm with Elbereth. I gave all my suspects. They killed me.

evils

Elbereth -sure

Lopen -high possibility

Nyali -sure

Wilson -sure (got permanent spranreed right after thief kill)

Goods

Zas,

DC

[STINK he/him]

Yafe's list, I gotta admit has some people on it that do look a bit fishy.

 

However, I am not so skeptical about Elbereth being evil.

[Seonid he/him]

Actually, unfortunately, Trelagist's confirmation that he did get the Grandbow that I guessed he had is not useful information. I had heard that someone redirected Orlok's role action target to Trelagist on the night he died. There were extra Grandbows last night, and Maill specifically clarified the order of actions such that Artifabrian came before death, so I assumed that one of the Grandbows was made by Orlok. Unfortunately, we don't know who Orlok's real target for the item was from this information.

 

Honestly, I asked the question I did for two real reasons. Since Trelagist had no way of knowing why I made my guess, if he was an eliminator, I was faintly hoping he would lie about it. But, there's no reason for him to lie about it regardless of his allegiance, I just though it was worth trying anyway just in case. The other reason was checking if the person who switched the action was telling the truth. Again, them telling the truth doesn't really mean much, but them lying would have meant something.

 

So, it was a failed attempt to gain information by startling someone with a question.

 

 

I do seem to have gotten it from Orlok. It has been clarified to me multiple times, by different players.

 

Makes sense. Sorry about the false start - I thought I was getting somewhere in organizing my suspicion-space. (I'm glad you liked the quantum joke, Elb!)

 

I've gotten sidetracked onto this Artifabrian analysis. I might be barking up the wrong tree, but I'd really like to know if anyone else received anything N1, when Wilson got the Spanreed. Or if anyone else has received anything at all on any other cycle, because if Orlok was the only Artifabrian, that's important information to apply for village analysis.

 

Also, there are apparently two Soulcasters out there, because both Orlok and Joe had their actions redirected on the same night. I would suspect that whoever redirected Joe's attack was an Eliminator. (Especially because whoever redirected Orlok is pretty darn close to hard-cleared). In fact, I strongly believe that the events of last night indicate beyond reasonable doubt that the Ghostbloods have acquired the Soulcaster formerly owned by Eobard, since I don't think that they would start out halfway to their win condition.

 

Also, Trelagist, I'd like to know who you attacked and why you did it. And if you aren't willing to tell, I'd like to know why you aren't.

 

EDIT: Since I was ninja'ed by yafe's death cry.

 

Joe's death cry clears up where Wilson got her spanreed from. Though it certainly doesn't clear her by any means.

Elbereth I've already been suspicious of, and have nothing new to say.

Nyali really is giving me a town read, but I'm not willing to bet my life on it.

Lopen I couldn't say either way.

 

DC and zas aren't giving me any sorts of reads at present. I wish I could know the reasoning here first.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Seonid

[Elbereth she/her]

I mean... why would you revealing your suspicions to me make me (as an eliminator) more likely to kill you? I mean, maybe if you were exactly on point with everyone, but if that were the case I'd be much more likely to let you live, since killing you would only validate your suspicions. And there are death cries, so it's not like I could hope that the information would die with you. That'd invalidate the entire point of killing you to get rid of your suspicions.

Basic summary of what happened in the PM, by the way:

El: Hi!

Yafe: Hi! [discussion of how there are a ton more assumptions/guesses this game than in LG19] I trust DC. Also somewhat Zas for his analysis of Orlok's posts. Also I think Lopen might be evil, and also I want revenge on him. Also I'm leaning evil on Wilson. And we shouldn't trust anyone who voted for Luna.

El: [more discussion] Of the people who voted for Luna, who's most suspicious to you?

Yafe: Nyali and Joe. Gut read.

That was basically it. And he seemed much more uncertain in the PM than in this death cry, for what it's worth.

I've gotten sidetracked onto this Artifabrian analysis. I might be barking up the wrong tree, but I'd really like to know if anyone else received anything N1, when Wilson got the Spanreed. Or if anyone else has received anything at all on any other cycle, because if Orlok was the only Artifabrian, that's important information to apply for village analysis.

I got a Spanreed made N2, obviously.

[Trelagist]

I hit Wilson, because after that death cry that said Kill Wilson, everybody was so willing to dismiss it as strong suspicion, while the one who wrote it (gimme a sec) had clearly showed us of their capability to express mere suspicion in appropriate language in that very same death cry.

Edit: Also, nobody has any reason to say Kill X or X is 100% evil in a death cry, unless they have really reliable confirmation (Yafe did say Lopen had a high probability of being evil, while he called the other 3 definitely evil. That means he was sure (not just a high probability, which is all he could hope for with the reasoning he gave us in his death cry, he was actually, definitely, sure) that those 3 were evil. Perhaps he thought elaborating on his definite proof might reveal sensitive information? Honestly, I'm not quite sure.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Trelagist

[Seonid he/him]

I mean... why would you revealing your suspicions to me make me (as an eliminator) more likely to kill you? I mean, maybe if you were exactly on point with everyone, but if that were the case I'd be much more likely to let you live, since killing you would only validate your suspicions. And there are death cries, so it's not like I could hope that the information would die with you. That'd invalidate the entire point of killing you to get rid of your suspicions.

Basic summary of what happened in the PM, by the way:

El: Hi!

Yafe: Hi! [discussion of how there are a ton more assumptions/guesses this game than in LG19] I trust DC. Also somewhat Zas for his analysis of Orlok's posts. Also I think Lopen might be evil, and also I want revenge on him. Also I'm leaning evil on Wilson. And we shouldn't trust anyone who voted for Luna.

El: [more discussion] Of the people who voted for Luna, who's most suspicious to you?

Yafe: Nyali and Joe. Gut read.

That was basically it. And he seemed much more uncertain in the PM than in this death cry, for what it's worth.

I got a Spanreed made N2, obviously.

 

Thank you, Elbereth. I was waiting to see if you would reveal to the thread. Don't know why you wouldn't, but it's another piece of info to define parameters here. This means that we very likely (assuming nobody's lying about their item being 1-turn only) have 2 artifabrians - due to the 2-turn cooldown, Wilson's and Elb's spanreeds can't be from the same person. We might have 3, but I'm not sure how I feel about that speculation yet.

 

We know (up to reasonable doubt - there could be a massive conspiracy between Nyali, Trel, Orlok, and others to claim that Orlok's artifabrian action got redirected to Trel when in fact Trel had a grandbow of his own, but that seems extremely far-fetched to me) that Elbereth didn't receive her spanreed from Orlok, as Trel got a Grandbow from Orlok that cycle.

 

It is also absolutely certain (unless Elb or Wilson was lying about the Spanreed being only one cycle - and closed all of the PMs to make it look like it was) that Wilson got her spanreed from a different Artifabrian than Elbereth. At the moment, Orlok's T1 item creation is unaccounted for. It could have been Wilson's spanreed. Or else we have 3 (or more) artifabrians. I'd like to see other players come forward if they received an item on N1 or N2 to clear this point up. From my perspective, it doesn't seem like a great risk - the items have all passed out of the game by now, so I can't see any incentive to hide them.

 

I will leave the analysis of whether giving Wilson a spanreed is a reasonable thing to expect from Orlok - given our available information - and whether or not this indicates Wilson's guilt, or is instead a sign of a complicated ploy to try and get an innocent villager lynched, to somebody who has more time than I do to spend on this stuff. I need to go back to my homework now.

 

I hit Wilson, because after that death cry that said Kill Wilson, everybody was so willing to dismiss it as strong suspicion, while the one who wrote it (gimme a sec) had clearly showed us of their capability to express mere suspicion in appropriate language in that very same death cry.

 

Thanks for letting us know. Obviously, she didn't die. Since she hasn't come forward about it (and has had a great deal of opportunity to, and no reason not to), I expect that somebody protected her with a Painrial last night.

 

I would appreciate if the person who did that did not reveal that to the thread, though. The last thing we need is to lose a protection item while it is charging.

[Nyali she/her]

Well, I know someone who says they were given a one-night Spanreed on night two that they used last night. Since Artifabrians cannot make the same item twice in a row, either there are two Noble Artifabrians as well as Orlok, or Orlok made Wilson's one-night Spanreed. I think it's totally plausible for there to have been three Artifabrians in a 28 player game, especially since Artifabrians have such limitations on their power. I'd be very surprised though if there were more than one Ghostblood Artifabrian, but nothing stops that from being true.

 

 

EDIT: Err, I missed that Elb revealed to everyone that she had a one-night spanreed or I would have mentioned her specifically (she's the one I meant). Also, I appear to have somehow read over some posts without reading them since, looking back, people have already said what I said above. Oops! Sorry for the accidental rehash.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Nyali

[Elbereth she/her]

Thank you, Elbereth. I was waiting to see if you would reveal to the thread. Don't know why you wouldn't, but it's another piece of info to define parameters here. This means that we very likely (assuming nobody's lying about their item being 1-turn only) have 2 artifabrians - due to the 2-turn cooldown, Wilson's and Elb's spanreeds can't be from the same person. We might have 3, but I'm not sure how I feel about that speculation yet.

Well, there was no point not to reveal, given that I PMed everyone.

I don't think either of us could lie about PMs being closed. Wilson definitely couldn't, since Maill pronounced them closed in thread. I theoretically could have, I suppose, by just saying "CLOSED" in every PM, but I just asked Maill if I could because it was fun. Just try to use one of them and you'll see if it's closed or not. (Please don't, though. Maill would be unhappy.)

 

It is also absolutely certain (unless Elb or Wilson was lying about the Spanreed being only one cycle - and closed all of the PMs to make it look like it was) that Wilson got her spanreed from a different Artifabrian than Elbereth. At the moment, Orlok's T1 item creation is unaccounted for. It could have been Wilson's spanreed. Or else we have 3 (or more) artifabrians. I'd like to see other players come forward if they received an item on N1 or N2 to clear this point up. From my perspective, it doesn't seem like a great risk - the items have all passed out of the game by now, so I can't see any incentive to hide them.

I'd say it's at least a bit of a risk. Since that'll get suspicion on you as well, just because the item you received could have been from Orlok. Or, alternatively, you're an eliminator and want to see Wilson lynched by mistake. I feel like they'd be very happy with that.

[AliasSheep]

There can be multiple thieves. Sorry for the confusing wording.

Damnation.  Well, sorry Wilson.

Edited May 2, 2016 by AliasSheep

[Seonid he/him]

Well, I know someone who says they were given a one-night Spanreed on night two that they used last night. Since Artifabrians cannot make the same item twice in a row, either there are two Noble Artifabrians as well as Orlok, or Orlok made Wilson's one-night Spanreed. I think it's totally plausible for there to have been three Artifabrians in a 28 player game, especially since Artifabrians have such limitations on their power. I'd be very surprised though if there were more than one Ghostblood Artifabrian, but nothing stops that from being true.

 

 

EDIT: Err, I missed that Elb revealed to everyone that she had a one-night spanreed or I would have mentioned her specifically (she's the one I meant). Also, I appear to have somehow read over some posts without reading them since, looking back, people have already said what I said above. Oops! Sorry for the accidental rehash.

 

And here I was getting excited about there being a 2nd Noble Artifabrian because it meant I could take Wilson out of the heavy suspicion zone. I wonder what made both yaf and Luna so sure she's evil. I feel like if they had strong evidence, they'd point it out in their DC. Or have given it to someone else to reveal if they died.

[Elbereth she/her]

Thank you, Elbereth. I was waiting to see if you would reveal to the thread. Don't know why you wouldn't, but it's another piece of info to define parameters here. This means that we very likely (assuming nobody's lying about their item being 1-turn only) have 2 artifabrians - due to the 2-turn cooldown, Wilson's and Elb's spanreeds can't be from the same person. We might have 3, but I'm not sure how I feel about that speculation yet.

Well, there was no point not to reveal, given that I PMed everyone.

I don't think either of us could lie about PMs being closed. Wilson definitely couldn't, since Maill pronounced them closed in thread. I theoretically could have, I suppose, by just saying "CLOSED" in every PM, but I just asked Maill if I could because it was fun. Just try to use one of them and you'll see if it's closed or not. (Please don't, though. Maill would be unhappy.)

 

It is also absolutely certain (unless Elb or Wilson was lying about the Spanreed being only one cycle - and closed all of the PMs to make it look like it was) that Wilson got her spanreed from a different Artifabrian than Elbereth. At the moment, Orlok's T1 item creation is unaccounted for. It could have been Wilson's spanreed. Or else we have 3 (or more) artifabrians. I'd like to see other players come forward if they received an item on N1 or N2 to clear this point up. From my perspective, it doesn't seem like a great risk - the items have all passed out of the game by now, so I can't see any incentive to hide them.

I'd say it's at least a bit of a risk. Since that'll get suspicion on you as well, just because the item you received could have been from Orlok. Or, alternatively, you're an eliminator and want to see Wilson lynched by mistake. I feel like they'd be very happy with that.

[Trelagist]

That last one definitely could happen in a free-PM game, but I'm guessing they didn't get anyone to tell it to. So they just directly told us to kill them instead, hoping that they would be heeded, as is the right course of action for a cleared (by death) player. But we didn't.

[Alvron]

Also, DC claimed to have his from day one, but I can't confirm that since I wasn't in contact with him until night two.

I can confirm this.  DC contacted me N1.  It has since been closed so I can also confirm that DC no longer has said spanreed.

 

Yafeshan:

Last pm with Elbereth. I gave all my suspects. They killed me.

evils

Wilson -sure (got permanent spranreed right after thief kill)

I'm curious as to why you getting a spanreed makes Wilson suspicious.  Wilson still has hers as my PM with her is still open so I would guess that it came from someone else.  I know you can't answer as you're dead but I'm still interested to know the answer.   You killed the thief or so you imply so it's possible that you got the spanreed from the body.

 

"atacked Phat, Eldin, 12rot. Not attack brt spag. (Rdirected)

Trust Wils, nyli, stink, zas. (Kild elo bc Zas)

-Sani Joslin, 32 seconds before death.

Zas, did you know Joe had a Shardblade?  If so, do you know of anyone else that knew of his Blade?  Did you know that Elodin has a Soulcaster?  Why did Joe attack Elodin because of you?  Do you know why Joe was going to attack 12th?

 

I think that the GBs knew Joe had a Blade and redirected it to someone random to insure it didn't hit one of them while also killing Joe to get his Blade.  Hopefully Zas can tell us who knew of Joe's Blade.

[Seonid he/him]

That last one definitely could happen in a free-PM game, but I'm guessing they didn't get anyone to tell it to. So they just directly told us to kill them instead, hoping that they would be heeded, as is the right course of action for a cleared (by death) player. But we didn't.

 

I really think that you are putting too much weight on the DC of these players. Yafe actually added bits saying why he was suspicious (thank you, yafe, by the way!), and these were directly contradicted by Joe. (That is, yafe says that Wilson got her spanreed from killing the Thief, while Joe said that he gave her the spanreed).

 

Just because they're cleared doesn't make them right. It just means that we know that their suspicions aren't given with the intent of manipulating us into lynching our own people.

 

Now - is Wilson confirmed good? By no means. In fact, confirmed good is tough to get in this game - I think Burnt Spaghetti's as close as we've got. Nobody has an alignment seeking ability, so we can only go for indirect methods of clearing.

 

Do I trust her? About as far as my paranoia will let me, and that's not far at all. But I'm rather surprised that you are gunning for her so hard on the strength of some unsupported assertions (one of which was completely wrong).

 

EDIT - Alv, my reading of yafe's statement is that he's claiming that Wilson killed the Thief to get the spanreed.

Edited May 2, 2016 by Seonid

[Nyali she/her]

I think that the GBs knew Joe had a Blade and redirected it to someone random to insure it didn't hit one of them while also killing Joe to get his Blade.  Hopefully Zas can tell us who knew of Joe's Blade.

 

By the way, note that Joe said s/he declared an heir. That means there's only a 50% chance the Ghostbloods now have the blade. Hopefully, they got the Painrial instead... That's not great since the more they have, the more protection they have from Grandbows, but them getting the blade would be much worse.

[Alvron]

EDIT - Alv, my reading of yafe's statement is that he's claiming that Wilson killed the Thief to get the spanreed.

But then how would Yafe know Wilson got a Spanreed or killed the thief?

[Seonid he/him]

But then how would Yafe know Wilson got a Spanreed or killed the thief?

 

No idea - but things don't add up either way...if we take it your reading, it has nothing to do with Wilson's level of suspicion; if we take it my way, there's question about how yafe got the info. Actually, now that I write it out like this, your reading sounds more reasonable. It makes my arguments against Trell a little weaker, but I think they still hold.

 

By the way, note that Joe said s/he declared an heir. That means there's only a 50% chance the Ghostbloods now have the blade. Hopefully, they got the Painrial instead... That's not great since the more they have, the more protection they have from Grandbows, but them getting the blade would be much worse.

 

That's certainly my (hopefully our!) hope. We can't really find out until the next night cycle, though.

 

I went back to look at our dead people - 3 of them expressed suspicion of Wilson in a Death Cry. Of these, one - Luna - had an emotion bracelet. So it is plausible that Luna could have scanned Wilson and seen a suspicious action. Although - may I make a request? If you have slam-dunk, 100% evidence that someone is evil, just put the evidence in your Death Cry. We don't need to know the rest of your suspicions - in fact, you should have been telling us them in the thread. If you have convictable evidence (like an alerter telling you who killed you, or an emotion bracelet telling you who made a Ghostblood kill), just put that in the Death cry and use whatever space is left for less important stuff.

 

Since Luna didn't do that, we don't know whether her admonition to "Kill Wilson" is based off of something she saw or just her suspicion. We don't know who she used her emotion bracelet on. I would really like to know, because if she saw something suspicious we could have lynched Wilson last cycle and learned about it.

 

So, going forward, if you know something, tell us what it is you know! Don't just tell us what to do, because without telling us why we have no way of knowing whether it was gut suspicion or something more.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

By the way, note that Joe said s/he declared an heir.

I'm a He. But thanks for not making Assumptions!

*goes back to being dead*

Edited May 2, 2016 by The Only Joe