Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Just a heads up, idk how active i'm going to be over this weekend, I had a lot of homework that needs catching up on and not much time to do it. If you ask me a direct question, i'll probably try and respond, otherwise no guarantees. 

 

I have been keeping up with the thread (ish). I may end up posting my percentage list later this cycle but we will see.

 

Anyways, i thought i should just pop in and say that. Now i need sleep.

[little wilson]

....Right. Of course. I should've predicted this would happen, but whatever.

 

Yes, I was in contact with Elodin, and I knew he had a Soulcaster. However, Nyali, he was not the Soulcaster I was referring to when I was talking to you. That was someone else. See, I'd suspected Elodin had a Soulcaster on Day 1, due to a couple of his posts--Kas has already mentioned that though. When I contacted him last night, he mentioned that he had a Soulcaster contact, which basically told me that I was right about my guess. He eventually confirmed that he was the Soulcaster, and told me that he had targeted Orlok the night before. I asked him if he'd be willing to use his soulcaster to redirect someone's painrial back onto themselves (without informing him who it was quite yet) and he'd said that he would be, but it was right after that the this person with the painrial contacted me to tell me that they'd worked out another plan with one of their other spanreed contacts. Elodin set up a plan for today to let me know who he'd targeted. I wanted to make sure that it was subtle enough not to give him away, since I knew he'd already indicated he had a soulcaster, and I didn't want to make it even more obvious that he did, just in case the GB's hadn't picked up on it. And that was it. That's basically my entire PM with him.

 

I've no idea why he's saying that I knew he had a Soulcaster Night 1. I didn't. I never told him I did. I told him I'd guessed that he probably did. But it's not something I knew until last night.

 

And as for the thing with DC. As far as I know, that's resolved. We were both trying to bait each other, and because of that, we both ended up looking highly suspicious to the other. Took up a massive portion of the night, but it seemed to me like we figured it out and actually started working together in the last 20 minutes of the night. He can contest that if he thinks differently, but that was my impression of what went on. I don't suspect him anymore, however, because I don't see any reason for him to have done what he did like he did were he a Ghostblood. So take that for what it is.

 

And now I have to get back to work. Don't expect a reply from me for at least 4 hours if not longer. I might have time to reply during my lunch break, if it's absolutely necessary, but I'm not going to promise anything for certain until after the workday is over, which will be about 8-9 hours from now.

[Nyali]

The very last thing DC said to me last night, 33 minutes before the end of the night, was that Wilson was at the very top of his suspect list and had just threatened him. That's just about the exact opposite of what Wilson is saying here.

 

DC, did you tell Wilson that you very strongly suspected AliasSheep was an Eliminator, and then later admit that you didn't actually believe that but were trying to bait Wilson into revealing information? You never mentioned AliasSheep to me at all, so that hit a red flag for me. My conversations with the two of you were extremely weird and constantly contradicted each other, which is why I'm strongly suspecting that one of the two of you is an Eliminator.

 

 

Going over my PMs and looking for mentions of Orlok -

 

DC asked me who I was most suspicious of, and (excluding DC and Luna for obvious reasons) I gave four names: Kas, Joe, Kyne, and Orlok. (Again, Joe (and others), it's super weak, but I don't have much on anyone, and accusations get information while saying "no one is suspicious enough" gets nothing.) DC's response was "I was thinking kas or joe." Joe was my weakest suspicion on the list by far, and DC never responded to my suspicion of Orlok. But, he also didn't mention anything about my suspicion of Kyne either, so that's hardly conclusive, but it is a point of reference.

 

I mentioned Orlok in my suspicion list to Wilson. She never mentioned him or gave her thoughts on that suspicion, but she also didn't mention other people, so that's also hardly conclusive, just another point of reference.

 

 

Regarding the item that people expected Orlok to create night one for use on night two, Artifabrian items only last one night, so my understanding is that even though he might of had it (or another item) when he died, it wouldn't go to anyone or show up in the writeup because it'd be gone by that point. If the item was an emotion bracelet, it wouldn't even activate before the death because death happens first. If it was a Grandbow, then it should have activated, but Orlok could have been painknifed, or Orlok could have targeted someone with protection. Someone out there has to have Plate, and we've seen a bunch of painrials change hands so far.

[DeathClutch19]

The very last thing DC said to me last night, 33 minutes before the end of the night, was that Wilson was at the very top of his suspect list and had just threatened him. That's just about the exact opposite of what Wilson is saying here.

 

DC, did you tell Wilson that you very strongly suspected AliasSheep was an Eliminator, and then later admit that you didn't actually believe that but were trying to bait Wilson into revealing information? You never mentioned AliasSheep to me at all, so that hit a red flag for me. My conversations with the two of you were extremely weird and constantly contradicted each other, which is why I'm strongly suspecting that one of the two of you is an Eliminator.

 

 

Going over my PMs and looking for mentions of Orlok -

 

DC asked me who I was most suspicious of, and (excluding DC and Luna for obvious reasons) I gave four names: Kas, Joe, Kyne, and Orlok. (Again, Joe (and others), it's super weak, but I don't have much on anyone, and accusations get information while saying "no one is suspicious enough" gets nothing.) DC's response was "I was thinking kas or joe." Joe was my weakest suspicion on the list by far, and DC never responded to my suspicion of Orlok. But, he also didn't mention anything about my suspicion of Kyne either, so that's hardly conclusive, but it is a point of reference.

 

I mentioned Orlok in my suspicion list to Wilson. She never mentioned him or gave her thoughts on that suspicion, but she also didn't mention other people, so that's also hardly conclusive, just another point of reference.

 

 

Regarding the item that people expected Orlok to create night one for use on night two, Artifabrian items only last one night, so my understanding is that even though he might of had it (or another item) when he died, it wouldn't go to anyone or show up in the writeup because it'd be gone by that point. If the item was an emotion bracelet, it wouldn't even activate before the death because death happens first. If it was a Grandbow, then it should have activated, but Orlok could have been painknifed, or Orlok could have targeted someone with protection. Someone out there has to have Plate, and we've seen a bunch of painrials change hands so far.

Yes Nyali..I lied to Wilson about suspecting Sheep because I wanted to she her response. It's just a method I use to bait eliminators out for jumping on little to no actual evidence. Sorry if that seems sus but it's how I work. Regarding your suspicions on Kyne and Orlock I did not have reads on them so I did not talk about them. 

 

Ah now to Wilson...

I must say I do not trust her. I did decided to work with her in a plan that was conceived for a village win, which I assume is what she means by working together now, however as soon as the plan was proposed she immediately shot it down. Not only that the plan involved the Soul Caster who she claimed to know and is now dead after being double tapped, what a coincidence right? 

 

Also Joe, 

I'm still suspicious of Joe. Mainly just because lack of contribution and his plan D2 for the spanreeds to randomly give their items to other people which seems risky for the village IMO.

Edited April 29, 2016 by DeathClutch19

[STINK]

I haven't really got any reads on anyone right now.

[Nyali]

Yes Nyali..I lied to Wilson about suspecting Sheep because I wanted to she her response. It's just a method I use to bait eliminators out for jumping on little to no actual evidence. Sorry if that seems sus but it's how I work. Regarding your suspicions on Kyne and Orlock I did not have reads on them so I did not talk about them. 

 

Ah now to Wilson...

I must say I do not trust her. I did decided to work with her in a plan that was conceived for a village win, which I assume is what she means by working together now, however as soon as the plan was proposed she immediately shot it down. Not only that the plan involved the Soul Caster who she claimed to know and is now dead after being double tapped, what a coincidence right? 

 

Also Joe, 

I'm still suspicious of Joe. Mainly just because lack of contribution and his plan D2 for the spanreeds to randomly give their items to other people which seems risky for the village IMO.

 

Good to know, DC, about the first paragraph. It means that my statement that one of you is almost certainly GB is no longer substantiated by the evidence I was pointing to, so you could both just be Nobles baiting each other in deliberately suspicious ways.

 

However, then there's that second paragraph. At the very end of the night, DC, you say that you proposed a plan to Wilson and she shot it down immediately. She says that she ended the night thinking the two of you were going to work together. Once again, those statements sound at odds.

 

 

I would like to state though that we should not tunnel in on just DC and Wilson. There are quite a few other people out there.

 

For one, I still think Luna is suspicious for a bunch of reasons, all of which are quite small on their own, but together make me worry. Here's a list.

1. Luna is against day one lynching, but I feel that no lynching, especially on day one, helps the eliminators much more than the town. But, that's quite subjective.

    

2. Luna didn't vote on day one but promised to post more in the future, and then didn't really. Not super suspicious, but it's a good tactic for an eliminator. Immediately posted on day two, but didn't post anything game-relevant from what I recall in that post. 

    

3. Araris voted for Luna on day one and then was killed by the Ghostbloods on night one. That leads me to think that either Luna is an eliminator or an eliminator wanted to lightly implicated Luna.

    

4. Orlok jumped on Strawman for voting against Luna, which could have been an eliminator protecting another eliminator, or it could just have been an attempt to vote for an arbitrary noble (Strawman) while having a solid argument for the vote, which is much more likely to succeed than sustaining the lynch of Luna which had no support to it.

    

5. Luna sniped a noble with a very last minute lynch vote at the end of day two. That's always an extremely suspicious act, but it could have been a noble wanting to make sure someone was lynched because no lynches help the eliminators more than the nobles. BUT, if she felt that way, why did she say on day one that she's against day one lynches? Those two beliefs aren't necessarily in opposition to each other, but it still strengthened the suspiciousness of the last minute vote for me.

To be clear, I'm not trying to build a case for lynching Luna and I'm not voting against her right now. I just wanted to share those suspicions because they're the best I've got at the moment.

 

I'll do the same for other people I have some suspicions about later if I can. I'm not sure I have more than two or three small suspicions for anyone else at the moment though...

[Macen]

I stand by my suspicion of Kas. I can't pinpoint exactly what it is other than his playstyle seems off to me and I honestly think he is a baddie.

I also lean towards Wilson being bad, but I'm not certain. 

I don't really have strong reads on anyone else. I'm weary of anyone who has a spanreed, because my estimates put there being 4 spanreeds in the game. 1 started with the GB, 3 with the villagers. 1 Villager spanreed went over to the GB, so that gives any spanreed holder that was revealed after night 1 a 50% chance of being a GB. I know this sucks because this makes the spanreed holders less likely to use the spanreed and bolster communication, but those are the numbers. I could be off, but I think that it's a very reasonable distribution.

[Mailliw73]

Subadon's death cry: "17 22 CC

UDDX

N, a T nnn

31 AHD EG HK US BG WI LO PG
 

"Tired with all these, for restful death I cry""

The reason beind that unless the emotion bracelet specifically says 'used Shardblade to kill' (my personal suspicion is that it will say 'used Tier 1 Action to kill' or so--Maili, could confirm please?), 

It will say that they killed someone.

 

Edit: Hang on a tick, why did Orlok die without any items? Hey Maili, if Orlok created a Grandbow on N1, would we still see it in his possessions by now?

No. Artifabrian items disappear as the night ends.

[Macen]

Subadon's death cry: "17 22 CC

UDDX

N, a T nnn

31 AHD EG HK US BG WI LO PG

 

"Tired with all these, for restful death I cry""

Well. I'm glad that clears everything up.

[Nyali]

Subadon's death cry: "17 22 CC

UDDX

N, a T nnn

31 AHD EG HK US BG WI LO PG

 

"Tired with all these, for restful death I cry""

 

Am I the only one trying to figure out if this is a coded message to the GBs and running various cryptoanalysis on it? <.< (<-- NERD)

[little wilson]

I'm currently at work, on my lunch break, and basically only have time to explain some of the things that have been mentioned in the last few hours. I'll be able to post more on my thoughts about certain players when I'm off work.

 

The very last thing DC said to me last night, 33 minutes before the end of the night, was that Wilson was at the very top of his suspect list and had just threatened him. That's just about the exact opposite of what Wilson is saying here.

 

I never threatened him. I was pissed at him, but I never threatened him. What am I gonna threaten him with? It's not like I have a kill role at my disposal like he apparently does. I've no idea why he told you I threatened him, but my PM to him was literally what I told you it was: calling him out on baiting me and explaining that we were both baiting each other. He got all uppity after that by saying that I was blowing it all out of proportion. Yeah. I guess I am. When someone says that they're convinced I'm an eliminator and they have a kill item at their disposal, you bet I'm going to get a little defensive. I don't like dying for stupid reasons.

 

 

Ah now to Wilson...

I must say I do not trust her. I did decided to work with her in a plan that was conceived for a village win, which I assume is what she means by working together now, however as soon as the plan was proposed she immediately shot it down. Not only that the plan involved the Soul Caster who she claimed to know and is now dead after being double tapped, what a coincidence right? 

 

The soulcaster who was killed is not the one I was referring to. You must've missed my comment about being in contact with two soulcasters last night. The person I'd had in mind for that plan was the second on. And yes, I shot it down because I don't like dictator games. I'd apologize for placing more importance on having fun than winning, but I'm actually not sorry at all. I don't play games if I'm not having fun. There's no point.

 

However, then there's that second paragraph. At the very end of the night, DC, you say that you proposed a plan to Wilson and she shot it down immediately. She says that she ended the night thinking the two of you were going to work together. Once again, those statements sound at odds.

 

I proposed the plan. I'd asked him if he wanted to help me come up with a plan to find the Ghostbloods. I'd come up with a plan that was a good plan, but I didn't particularly like it because it set one person up with a lot of power and lot of control. In my experience, when that happens, that person takes total control of everybody's actions, going into super-competitive mode and sucking the fun out of the game. Understandably, I wasn't interested in this plan, even though it would totally lead to a win. I wanted to come up with a different plan. Please note that I sent that PM 3 1/2 hours before the end of the cycle. He responded 40 minutes until the end of the cycle with a snide comment about how he'd help me with my plan, "assuming it's even viable." 40 minutes is not long enough to get anything done. And since I didn't really have anyone I could reasonably assume was a Noble to talk to for the last 3 hours, I hadn't been able to come up with anything else. See, I do my best strategizing when I have a sounding board, which I didn't have. So no, I didn't have anything other than the dictator plan, which I shot down right after mentioning. But he was like "a win is a win," as if winning just for the sake of winning is fine if nobody has fun.

 

I don't think DC is a Ghostblood, but his playstyle is irritating the hell out of me. Take that for what you will.

[Macen]

Am I the only one trying to figure out if this is a coded message to the GBs and running various cryptoanalysis on it? <.< (<-- NERD)

I tried to decypher it as well... spent about 10 minutes then gave up haha. I'm usually pretty good at code breaking, and have won a few code breaking things on here before (the last instance of this game is a good example). But, I don't see enough of a pattern in the text to make it easy, and I can't see one of the GB giving free information away to us villagers - even if it was encoded.

*EDIT* Let me correct myself. I'm almost positive it is a code, and i'm sure it has something that will help us villagers a little bit, but it doesn't seem worth the effort.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Macen

[Mark IV]

IIRC, Orlok hadn't jumped to the front line when anyone had voted for an eliminator in QF14, but, I'll have to check about that. His actions in that game could help us here. Though I'm sure I'm not the first one who thought about it.

For now though, I believe Luna is innocent. Rather than outright defending Luna, I feel a better move would have been to seal her fate had she been up for lynch. But, both those moves are not too good in the long run.

That code though.... o.O

Sorry for my lack of posting. Holidays have just started today, and I hope to post more soon. (I always say that, don't I... )

EDIT: A question to anyone with an answer or any thoughts - what information would Orlok have gotten after his death that he had to transmit to his teammates? He had no items, and so, the only explanations are -

He had an item from an artifabrian , mainly an alerter or emotion bracelet. Thus suggesting there might be another artifabrian in the GB group.

Another explanation is that he's just trolling us, trying to take our focus off of something else/the game in general.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Mark IV

[Trelagist]

I tried for a solid 40 minutes, nothing.

[Trelagist]

Possibly a distraction.

[Elbereth]

Long post incoming.

Wilson obtained an item from an artifabrian night one. Our first arti reveal is GB. Also, Wilson definitely claimed to be in contact with a soulcaster.

I decided last night that either DC or Wilson was GB from what was said in PMs. I'm given to believe DC now over Wilson. Sorry, Wilson! I still think you're cool outside of the context of this specific game!

I was going to vote for Luna right off this morning for sniping a Noble kill yesterday in the last 13 minutes of the day. Now, I'm not so sure because DC seems to trust her, her being his heir and all.

I mean... First off, this is assuming that DC is innocent. Which is not the same thing as you trusting him. You're implying he's flat-out cleared, and (as far as I know) that's not the case. Second, on't rely on DC. Draw your own conclusions. There's no reason he has to be right in who he trusts just because you think he's innocent. After all, you know you're innocent, for a fact (assuming you actually are). So trust your own thoughts over anyone else's.

Also, I get the feeling that Luna being DC's heir is based on friendship rather than actual trust.

If my vote isn't key, I'd actually like to day heir. Wilson is my current heir and I now think she was playing me. But, I'm not sure who to declare. DC would be a bad choice because he implied on day two that he had three items already, so if he's noble, he couldn't use mine and he's have to forgo an item use to give it away. I don't have much, but I'd rather the GBs not get my particular item(s).

Wilson's always playing you. Question is which side she's playing you for.

I now feel a little bad- not only was I blatantly wrong in my voting, but I may have influenced the Shardbearer to attack (if they're not an Eliminator, which seems to make more sense unless they thought that Elodin had protection).

Making the Shardbearer attack isn't actually a bad thing in this case, though. It gave at least a chance of the Soulcaster not falling into GB hands. Which is a good thing.

Maill, if Orlok made the kill on Elodin and died at the same time, would the kill still go through? And if it would, does the Shardbearer have a 100% chance of getting the item in that case?

Given that Orlok had no other items and the Artifabrian power can only be used once a night (I think?), he seems like an ideal person to make the kill for the eliminator team.

All right, so this more or less exonerates our Grandbow archer. (With, always, a tiny bit of wariness held back.) I still think that reasoning indicates the Shardblade-wielder ought to be on our side, but at this point, the strongest evidence for it is still the knowledge that they are an extra victory condition for the Ghostbloods and so are unlikely to be granted them from the start. (Yes, I'm paranoid. Deal with it.)

Agreed on this point. And to further it, we know that the Ghostbloods had an Artifabrian. They had an extra kill every three nights from the beginning, in addition to any kill roles they got from heiring/killing. So it seems even more unlikely for them to have also started with a kill role. (Side note - At the same time, the Grandbow user isn't completely cleared because of the possibility of Soulcasting.)

Nyali, if you do have items, then unless it is a reverser or a Shard, then I don't really think it matters whom you declare as your Heir, so long as you do it publicly, because our thief is going to be going item-shopping the moment you die. (And really, assuming you don't die this night, you can always keep tweaking it.)

Also, I just realized. If you look at the order of actions, thieving is first. Before giving away items. So, Wilson, it wouldn't have mattered if you'd given the Reverser away or not. The thief would still have stolen it. Which is yet another big point against public heiring, in my opinion.

Edit: Hang on a tick, why did Orlok die without any items? Hey Maili, if Orlok created a Grandbow on N1, would we still see it in his possessions by now?

The second part of this question has been cleared up, I think, but the first point stands. Didn't we get a clarification that everyone started wtih 1-3 items? So he must have given an item away. Which is odd. My only potential suggestion would be that Orlok knew he was going to die and gave all his items away first? Dunno how much sense that makes, though.

I think the item creation cooldown could conceivably explain this. The GBs stand to gain more from their kills if they can target people with roles and valuable items. If they spend a turn or two creating information-gathering items, eg a spanreed or an emotion bracelet, they might get more value out of the grandbow kill than the extra turn of a player being dead.

I'd agree with this. And in addition, if they waited a cycle or two before killing anyone, it could easily be passed off as a Villager killing people, rather than an eliminator. Obviously this didn't work, because there were kills on the first night. But that would definitely be a potential explanation.

Elbereth, I'm in contact with a spanreed holder who also claims to be in contact with you. Does this sound right?

Maybe? My contact has not mentioned you, but I've now asked.

Regarding the item that people expected Orlok to create night one for use on night two, Artifabrian items only last one night, so my understanding is that even though he might of had it (or another item) when he died, it wouldn't go to anyone or show up in the writeup because it'd be gone by that point. If the item was an emotion bracelet, it wouldn't even activate before the death because death happens first. If it was a Grandbow, then it should have activated, but Orlok could have been painknifed, or Orlok could have targeted someone with protection. Someone out there has to have Plate, and we've seen a bunch of painrials change hands so far.

To my understanding, he would never have shown up as having an item. The item immediately goes to his target. The salient point here isn't when each item falls in the order of actions, but when Artifabrianing does. You can't use an item the same night you receive it from an Artifabrian. You have to use it the next night (or day if it's a reverser). If he attempted to create an item last night (which seems very likely), it wouldn't have happened. So the only item he could have created would be whatever he did N1.

One interesting question that is tangentially related is whether a killed player would show up as having an item if it was an Artifabrian item they'd used that night. Maill?

Araris voted for Luna on day one and then was killed by the Ghostbloods on night one. That leads me to think that either Luna is an eliminator or an eliminator wanted to lightly implicated Luna.

Eh, this point isn't that valid, I don't think. That wouldn't be the reasoning for killing him, anyway. He seems like a reasonable random/fear kill. Luna wouldn't have much to do with it, I don't think.

About the code - I'm not going to try to break it. It's either a predetermined code for his teammates (in which case we're probably not going to get it without the key) or designed to make us waste time. Which I refuse to do.

RP will come today (since I don't have a final RP to write, finally...), later.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Elbereth

[Nyali]

Sorry for being confusing in my post, but I wasn't saying anyone was cleared. Based on what I had, I was postulating that either DC *or* Wilson was an eliminator, so I was trying to give the rest of the info keeping that in mind. I wasn't saying anything cleared Luna, but DC gave me reasons to believe she was clear, and that weakened my suspicion from absolute to middling. I'm not letting other people make up my mind for me. I followed up the post with a post containing exactly why I was suspicious of Luna. I just didn't include the vote I was planning to include because I'm still considering (and trying not to tunnel vision).

 

 

The reason people thought Orlok's item creation went to him instead of his target was that Elodin redirected the target of Orlok's role action on N1 to Orlok. That would, in theory, result in Orlok giving himself an item, something normally impossible, but possible through the magic of Soulcasting.

 

 

Unless there was a later clarification, the clarification I saw said people started with 0-3 items, not 1-3.

 

 

Regarding day heiring resulting in giving items away to the thief, well, I'd much rather the thief had my item than a GB. It's not amazing, and I'm sure the thief would rather go for potential super shinies (plate/blade/caster) instead of a guaranteed mediocre item, but still.

 

 

Your added emphasis seems to have been lost by the formatting as nothing is emphasized. If you underlined, they seem to not work in block quotes. Regardless, I think the point is entirely valid, just not very strong. Araris did almost nothing before dying, so looking at what was done that caused them to get targeted "randomly" is interesting to me. I don't believe in randomness when humans (or Parshendi) are involved. There was something that caused him to get targeted, even if it was subconsciously done, and even if it was just a "hey, let's pick someone who voiced a suspicion, maybe it'll throw people off."

 

 

I think the code is similar to someone declaring an heir using red text.

 

 

El - you didn't voice any suspicions, just analyzed other people's suspicions that you didn't agree with. Do you have any eliminator reads at all, even weak ones?

[STINK]

This item thing is confusing me, I mean some people are talking about what I guess is permanent or something spanreed while previously people were discussing temporary spanreed? Maybe? I dunno, which I guess is the point of this post.

 

Oh, and you didn't bold anything in the quote where you said you added emphasis, Elbereth.

 

Also, while I think about it, DC's insistence on the plan of the 'dictator' going ahead, could also be because he's evil and would presumably already be 'in' with the 'dictator'. I mean, he could also really want to win, but maybe when he talks about winning, he talks about a different team winning than anyone else

[Mailliw73]

"Maill, if Orlok made the kill on Elodin and died at the same time, would the kill still go through? And if it would, does the Shardbearer have a 100% chance of getting the item in that case? "

Yes and yes.

Players can start from anywhere from 0-3 items.

The item would not show up in that case, El.

[DeathClutch19]

I don't think DC is a Ghostblood, but his playstyle is irritating the hell out of me. Take that for what you will.

 

Awe thanks Wilson  

For the record this is my play style i'm just usually not active

 

Also, Elb do you have any suspicions yourself?

[Elbereth]

Sorry for being confusing in my post, but I wasn't saying anyone was cleared. Based on what I had, I was postulating that either DC *or* Wilson was an eliminator, so I was trying to give the rest of the info keeping that in mind. I wasn't saying anything cleared Luna, but DC gave me reasons to believe she was clear, and that weakened my suspicion from absolute to middling. I'm not letting other people make up my mind for me. I followed up the post with a post containing exactly why I was suspicious of Luna. I just didn't include the vote I was planning to include because I'm still considering (and trying not to tunnel vision).

Okay. I didn't know DC had given you reasons that she was trusted past heiring, and I was mostly concerned about that.

Yeah, I'd agree that if one is an eliminator, the other is basically clear.

 

 

The reason people thought Orlok's item creation went to him instead of his target was that Elodin redirected the target of Orlok's role action on N1 to Orlok. That would, in theory, result in Orlok giving himself an item, something normally impossible, but possible through the magic of Soulcasting.

Unless there was a later clarification, the clarification I saw said people started with 0-3 items, not 1-3.

I'm officially an idiot. Ignore both of those things. 

 

Regarding day heiring resulting in giving items away to the thief, well, I'd much rather the thief had my item than a GB. It's not amazing, and I'm sure the thief would rather go for potential super shinies (plate/blade/caster) instead of a guaranteed mediocre item, but still.

They can't, I don't think. Shards and Soulcasters can't be stolen.

 

Your added emphasis seems to have been lost by the formatting as nothing is emphasized. If you underlined, they seem to not work in block quotes. Regardless, I think the point is entirely valid, just not very strong. Araris did almost nothing before dying, so looking at what was done that caused them to get targeted "randomly" is interesting to me. I don't believe in randomness when humans (or Parshendi) are involved. There was something that caused him to get targeted, even if it was subconsciously done, and even if it was just a "hey, let's pick someone who voiced a suspicion, maybe it'll throw people off."

Yeah, I just took out everything else instead of bolding the relevant part and forgot to take out the (emphasis added) tag.

"Random" isn't exactly the word I mean there. It's like... Within the pool of everyone (every villager, that is) playing, there are kind of three sections. One section is people like Alv, Wilson, Kas, who would be really nice for the eliminators to kill but will almost certainly be protected N1, resulting in a wasted kill. Another pool is people who are not great as targets for a few reasons (inactivity - ex. it wouldn't be fair to kill Seonid, really, and even true inactives are going to be less useful to target in the long run because they aren't adding anything to the opposition; newness - not fair to kill someone N1 of their first game; or usefulness - if they can be manipulated into helping you, you don't want to kill them). The third pool is everyone in between. That would be people like Burnt, Mark, Twei, phatt... and Araris. I don't think he was killed for anything he did this game, but out of respect for his showings in past games (while at the same time not high profile enough to be protected). That's how I'm thinking about his death, at least.

 

 

I think the code is similar to someone declaring an heir using red text.

Um, can you clarify? Also, heirs aren't declared with red text. Not sure what you're getting at here.

 

 

El - you didn't voice any suspicions, just analyzed other people's suspicions that you didn't agree with. Do you have any eliminator reads at all, even weak ones?

Um. Not really? I have people who I think are loyal, but I haven't seen anything that suspicious. (I'm a little bit like Joe in that way, picking out people I trust before people I suspect, though to a lesser extent.) Wilson reads as neutral right now, which is actually more reassuring than would be her reading as good. For Alv I have a very slight amount of trust due to something said in a PM. Nyali, I trust you to a certain extent. Or at the very least, I don't want you lynched yet. You've been contributing a lot, and I like that.

Other than that... I don't have anything at the moment. I'll try to go over the thread again in the next couple of days, now that I'm free from GMing. (I'm freeeeeeeeee....)

Oh, and I agree with Wilson about not having dictator plans. Those are not fun.

[LUNA]

For one, I still think Luna is suspicious for a bunch of reasons, all of which are quite small on their own, but together make me worry. Here's a list.

1. Luna is against day one lynching, but I feel that no lynching, especially on day one, helps the eliminators much more than the town. But, that's quite subjective.

    

2. Luna didn't vote on day one but promised to post more in the future, and then didn't really. Not super suspicious, but it's a good tactic for an eliminator. Immediately posted on day two, but didn't post anything game-relevant from what I recall in that post. 

    

3. Araris voted for Luna on day one and then was killed by the Ghostbloods on night one. That leads me to think that either Luna is an eliminator or an eliminator wanted to lightly implicated Luna.

    

4. Orlok jumped on Strawman for voting against Luna, which could have been an eliminator protecting another eliminator, or it could just have been an attempt to vote for an arbitrary noble (Strawman) while having a solid argument for the vote, which is much more likely to succeed than sustaining the lynch of Luna which had no support to it.

    

5. Luna sniped a noble with a very last minute lynch vote at the end of day two. That's always an extremely suspicious act, but it could have been a noble wanting to make sure someone was lynched because no lynches help the eliminators more than the nobles. BUT, if she felt that way, why did she say on day one that she's against day one lynches? Those two beliefs aren't necessarily in opposition to each other, but it still strengthened the suspiciousness of the last minute vote for me.

 

Alrighty, here we go. 

 

1. I already had a discussion about this with Mailliw and other people I know irl when I first joined this site. I don't like 1st turn lynches because I haven't got a read on anyone for obvious reasons. If nothing has happened, no one has posted, I'd rather just sit back and watch and try to figure out how this particular game works and get a read on how people play. That being said, I don't care if ya'll lynch someone, I can't stop you. I just choose not to make a vote. That way, I can simply focus on how people interact. So when i tell ya'll that I don't like first turn lynches, it is so ya'll don't freak out because I am not voting. That is all. 

 

2. Yeah, It's dead week. I have finals coming up. In my defense, if you look at my activity in past games, I have most DEFINITELY made an improvement. 

 

3. I really have no say on this one. I don't know why they decided to kill him tbh other than the fact that ya'll were suspicious of me and they wanted me out of the game. 

 

4. I didn't ask for him to defend me. Tbh, I think that I could have handled that situation on my own. I really doubt anyone was gonna jump on me because of Strawman's stupid dice. It was a dumb tactic all around, and it wouldn't have gotten far anyways.

 

5. Alright, so here was my thinking for this particular action. I knew that not having a lynch would have been harmful for the Nobles and it was like a five way tie or something. I had originally wanted to vote for Wilson for gut-feeling suspicion, but I feared that I would be held under a lot more suspicion if Wilson had ended up being a Noble. Since Wilson contributes a lot to the games, I feared that lynching her early if she was a Noble would hurt the Nobles more than it helped. Therefore, I voted for SD because I noticed the little activity. This way, a lynch was taken place, and I had an argument for the reasoning behind the lynch. (So sorry SD. No hard feelings haha) Now, I can be suspicious of Wilson and wait for her to prove herself to be either Noble or Ghostblood and cement my opinion. (geez I feel like I ramble a lot)

 

This is all I have to say. 

 

Now I am going to go study for an Anthropology Final and write 5 more pages on my essay good day to you all. I'll be back on later.

[Nyali]

Um, can you clarify? Also, heirs aren't declared with red text. Not sure what you're getting at here.

 

I just meant it sounded like a red heiring.

[STINK]

Elbereth's ability to understand puns seems to be lacking.

[little wilson]

For the record this is my play style i'm just usually not active

 

If that's the case, I can quite honestly say I never want to play a game with you again, regardless of your alignment or mine.

 

I know I said I would post my opinions on other players after I got off work, and now I'm off work, but I'm really frustrated right now and don't really want to do anything with the game tonight. I'd prefer to de-tox. I also have some real life things I need to take care of that I'd forgotten about. I'll make one or two posts tomorrow, but that's all I'm going to promise.