Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Loopen ripped the buttons off of his coat and handed them to Star Thief as his last breath faded. "May these shiny's give you peace."

 

Sorry about that SD. I guess I should've removed my vote.

[Elbereth she/her]

Thanks, Wilson! But there are, in theory, other people with reeds out there, and hopefully some with ones that last more than a single night. Anyone else want to start up PMs?

I suspect that they're afraid because if they do PM, they'll either be suspected as Shardbearers (by any Ghostblood they contact) or as a Ghostblood (by everyone else). Which is a bit of a detriment, I'd say.

[yafeshan he/him]

I suspect that they're afraid because if they do PM, they'll either be suspected as Shardbearers (by any Ghostblood they contact) or as a Ghostblood (by everyone else). Which is a bit of a detriment, I'd say.

Why would anyone purely assume pm coming from enemy side. The starter may have only 1 item as spranreed, why would potential ghostblood assume he/she has more. I also disagree with you about the other point. I would not think pm starter as a ghostblood but a honest noble trying to help communication. I know ghostbloods spreading out pm is a rational possibility but it should not be only think we should assume.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Why would anyone purely assume pm coming from enemy side. The starter may have only 1 item as spranreed, why would potential ghostblood assume he/she has more. I also disagree with you about the other point. I would not think pm starter as a ghostblood but a honest noble trying to help communication. I know ghostbloods spreading out pm is a rational possibility but it should not be only think we should assume.

Could you maybe rewrite this post for clarity? I think you're asking why we would assuse a pm starter is a GB? The GB's killed a spanreed holder, so they have a spanreed. That's why.

[Nyali she/her]

I suspect that they're afraid because if they do PM, they'll either be suspected as Shardbearers (by any Ghostblood they contact) or as a Ghostblood (by everyone else). Which is a bit of a detriment, I'd say.

 

Shh! Don't let them know that we know that they know we know they have a spanreed for sure! <.<

[Kasimir he/him]

Shh! Don't let them know that we know that they know we know they have a spanreed for sure! <.<

Are we seriously going to turn this into a gambit pileup?[/yurl]

Wilson: It was an OMGUS vote. I freely admit it. What's more, it was intended to be an OMGUS vote, to put my point across more sharply than the treatises I've written about gut votes in the past. It boils down to this: gut votes are a cheap way of voting for someone and appearing to be nice and contributing (which is, after all, a good thing for an Eliminator, given the metagame on inactives, at least when I last played!) Can gut votes be right sometimes? Sure. Can looking at a stopped clock be a correct way of telling the time sometimes? Also sure. Can reading the future in entrails or in the fur patterns of a panda also be a good way of telling the future sometimes? Sure, maybe if you're lucky.

Sure, people who are Team Village sometimes end up resorting to gut votes too. And honestly, if you do this, then I think you are epistemically naughty and ought to be spanked. If and when I rely on gut votes of my own, I too will submit myself for spanking because I may as well slaughter a goat and try to read my suspects in the entrails for all the good it will do. (I can't dictate how others play, of course. It wouldn't be right. But I can strongly disapprove of methods that don't tend to be epistemically reliable nor virtuous, and I can strongly disapprove of methods that are epistemically irrational. So there, you can't take this from me! >> #footstomp )

At the end of the day, my point is this: the vote on me had exactly as much reasoning as my vote on you did. I can even promise to carefully go over your posts to decide what sets me off about them, in order to make my epistemic situation nicely on par with Macen's. If I'm suspect for it, then to be logically consistent, shouldn't you raise an eyebrow at what Macen is doing too? Sure, he didn't package it in crude local gangster slang, but surely my sounding like I been never eddycated in me life shouldn't be a mark against my vote itself, innit? 

 

(Of course, as I mentioned, perhaps it was a case of diarrhoea and not my gut actually telling me something was weird with you... )

 

-

 

Joe, yafeshan: My assumption is that reading yafeshan charitably, he is questioning the idea that Ghostbloods would automatically think a spanreed holder is a Shardbearer, and that people would automatically assume/find suspicious someone sending a PM. In response to the first, yafeshan, I think El was trying to get at this idea: using a spanreed, if you're a Noble, is generally a deathwish because it makes you a great target; taking down Village communications and all that. So one natural assumption might be that if someone with a spanreed uses it, they must have a reason to not worry about getting killed, which generally implies either Shardplate [shardbearer], or a lack of a healthy sense of self-preservation.

 

With regard to the second, you're partly correct that it is not the only possibility, but people would naturally be wary: there have always been way too many info leaks in PMs and just because someone's nice enough to PM you doesn't mean they're actually on your side. The point, or Joe's and El's point, as I see it, is that we know the killer inherited a spanreed (from Araris) and so this adds a bit more certainty to the notion that whoever it is could be a Ghostblood. (I mean, imagine: let's say there are 3 spanreeds in play. This is just a random guess. Then this gives us at least a 1/3 chance that one of them is evil, based off the fact Araris's spanreed was taken by the killer. And this doesn't even include the possibility that some of the Ghostbloods began with spanreeds. So what, 2/3? 1? I daresay that's pretty good odds--and unlike a normal situation, the odds are, we're not losing the role permanently either.) So, they're not saying they must be one, but that if you are a Noble with a spanreed and you know that using it will invite suspicion on you, then it's tempting to just not use it at all because dealing with people might be bloody exhausting or might detract from what is the point of this: hunting down the Ghostbloods.

[Nyali she/her]

Actually, since a Shardblade wielder killed a Spanreed holder, we know that there's someone out there with a Blade and Reed. Just like we know there's a GB out there with a Reed. Even if one of the two reed holders tried to declare an heir at night, they would have died before the heiring took effect, since heiring is last on the order of operations list.

 

Using a one-night spanreed is totally safe, since it means you are NOT the artifabrian who made it, it says nothing about your alignment innately since the artifabrian could give it to a Ghostblood just as easily as a Noble, and the benefits go away anyway in the morning whether you live or die. That's why Wilson was safe to declare she had one. It says nothing by itself and doesn't make her any more of a target.

 

 

 

EDIT: Editing "Plate" to "Blade" - it was a typo. I thought one and wrote the other, as pointed out by Macen below.

 

EDIT2: Edited for terminology - used to mafiascum terms, sorry!

Edited April 28, 2016 by Nyali

[Macen he/him]

Actually, since a Shardblade wielder killed a Spanreed holder, we know that there's someone out there with a Blade and Reed. Just like we know there's a GB out there with a Reed. Even if one of the two reed holders tried to declare an heir at night, they would have died before the heiring took effect, since heiring is last on the order of operations list.

Just clarifying.

And I agree, wilson didn't give anything away by declaring she has a single-use spanreed.

[Master Elodin]

Yeah, reed heirings don't work very well.

Also, I see no reason why Ghostbloods shouldn't use the Spanreed as it just makes people trust them more.

[Elbereth she/her]

Kas, have I mentioned lately that you're a wonderful person? I just came from reading the Championship game, and I desperately needed some sanity. Thanks for the refreshingly rational and logical post.

Joe, yafeshan: My assumption is that reading yafeshan charitably, he is questioning the idea that Ghostbloods would automatically think a spanreed holder is a Shardbearer, and that people would automatically assume/find suspicious someone sending a PM. In response to the first, yafeshan, I think El was trying to get at this idea: using a spanreed, if you're a Noble, is generally a deathwish because it makes you a great target; taking down Village communications and all that. So one natural assumption might be that if someone with a spanreed uses it, they must have a reason to not worry about getting killed, which generally implies either Shardplate [shardbearer], or a lack of a healthy sense of self-preservation. 

My point was more that if you contact a Thief you're probably going to get your spanreed stolen, but taking down village communications is an equally valid point.

 

Yeah, reed heirings don't work very well.

Also, I see no reason why Ghostbloods shouldn't use the Spanreed as it just makes people trust them more.

It certainly doesn't make them more trusted if there's at least one Spanreed known to be in the hands of the Ghostbloods.

[STINK he/him]

Yeah but its not like it's gonna be hard for the GBs to just say 'well who knows how many Spanreeds are out there' etc. 

 

I mean, I'm hoping that I get another PM

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just so everyone knows, there is a possibility that this turn will be delayed by a couple hours due to work. I may be off an hour before rollover, but I may not be off until an hour after. So, expect some delays, but no more actions will be accepted after 9 pm.

[yafeshan he/him]

Sorry for my incomprehensive post earlier today. It was stressful morning at work.

 

What does people think about Hellscythe’s list?

[Master Elodin]

Sorry for my incomprehensive post earlier today. It was stressful morning at work.

 

What does people think about Hellscythe’s list?

I'm not sure whether it was backed by info or not, but I know that it's right about me being good, so there's that.

[Alvron]

I'm not sure whether it was backed by info or not, but I know that it's right about me being good, so there's that.

Problem with that statement is that everyone on the good list will say it's right for them while those listed as evil will say they got listed wrong.

[Master Elodin]

Problem with that statement is that everyone on the good list will say it's right for them while those listed as evil will say they got listed wrong.

Yes of course. This would also mean, due to majority rule, that it's right.

[STINK he/him]

Problem with that statement is that everyone on the good list will say it's right for them while those listed as evil will say they got listed wrong.

 

Alv is 100% evil.

[Macen he/him]

I think the list needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We have to weight it into our analysis, but we obviously can't take it at face value.

We know Hellscyth was good, and we know he thought XYZ. Well, I know I'M good, and I know what I think, but lord knows I'm wrong all of the time. It wasn't like he had a bunch of additional information that we didn't, he is basing this on about as much information as we have.

The only difference between him saying it and me saying the exact same thing is, we all know he was a good guy. I'm the only one who knows I'm a good guy.

[Nyali she/her]

My opinions on some of Hellscythe's list. I'm not commenting on everyone.

no opinion

Elby

Alv

Elky

Sheep

Zas

Burnt

Kas (disagree - evil read, but weak)

Seonid

good

Elodin

DeathC

Kyne

Nyali

Luna (disagree - snipe kill = evil read)

Macen

Yafe

Mark

Stink (agree, weak good read)

Lopen

evil as

Trelagist (not active enough yet for me to have a read)

Joe (agree, weak evil read)

Orlok (agree, weak evil read)

Wilson (disagree, good read, but I can be gullible)

twei (disagree, no read)

EDIT: Removed Hellscythe's colors

Edited April 29, 2016 by Nyali

[STINK he/him]

Oh yeah, somehow getting good reads yet again.

[Nyali she/her]

Oh, err, is that bad? Should I switch it? I can switch it if you'd like!

[Elbereth she/her]

Oh, err, is that bad? Should I switch it? I can switch it if you'd like!

I like her. Can we keep her forever?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Joe (agree, weak evil read)

May I inquire as to why you're getting an evil read from me?

[Master Elodin]

May I inquire as to why you're getting an evil read from me?

Also why you are voting on all of them, even the ones you disagree with?

Edited April 28, 2016 by Master Elodin

[Orlok Tsubodai]

 

Orlok (agree, weak evil read)

 

 

Nyali, I must admit to being a little surprised by this. Last day cycle, you explained that your suspicion of me was due to my being the second vote on Strawman, and due to defending LUNA.

 

I shall address each of these in turn.

 

Having read through the game, the first seems incongruous with you statement on Day 1, where you voted on Strawman as the 5th vote (4th not counting Deathclutch's vote in spite of having made an heir), for exactly the same reasons as I set out to explain my having voted on Strawman, and the edit Strawman had made of his post.

Now, given Strawman's edit was a misinterpretation of the rules, I don't think it should have been given any weight in terms of analysing his actions, which means that your vote was based on exactly the same information mine was - and if mine was unsound, so too must have been your own.

 

Regarding defending LUNA, I shall reiterate my statements from the first day. I had (and have) little view on LUNA's alignment - but I did believe her to be more useful than Strawman from their limited interactions, and so decided to even the lynch to prevent it being led by a nominally dice decided vote - although one you later accurately point out was based on a roll of dice from players already with two votes, which made only LUNA eligible - a somewhat inconsistent argument from Strawman, and one which I felt should not be responsible for leading a lynch.

 

Further, I think that basing my alignment on a view of LUNA's alignment, and my single interaction (if it can even be called that) with LUNA is a little tenuous.

 

Regarding my inactivity. I'll apologise to everyone - I have been unwell these last few days, and struggling to keep up with work despite being ill. I'm feeling somewhat better today though, and the work is now once again very manageable. Whilst I will be out tomorrow evening, I can guarantee that I shall be fully active at the weekend - and so able to participate in the second half of Day 3 at the very least.