Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[Elbereth she/her]

Yeah, that's not how games usually work here. Game discussion is always allowed in thread. At any point. (Except for LG19 sunset period, which is a bit of a special case.) PMs may vary, (though docs are usually always open), but the game thread is always open for talk.

Glad to have cleared up that misconception.

[AliasSheep]

AliasSheep

 

Right, I'm here -  I was away with school over the weekend so I couldn't partake.  I've been reading up on everything that's happened over the day and am about to reread now, so will be able to make some (hopefully) useful commentary shortly.

[Nyali she/her]

Just as a note, I'm not making any judgement calls when I say that people haven't posted - I'm just looking at it objectively.
 
Though, to me, not posting in the public thread, especially when you're still taking night actions and otherwise participating in the game, is super suspicious. It looks like you're trying to avoid drawing attention, hoping people forget you're in the game.
 
The new list of people who haven't posted yet at all, to my knowledge:
 
Seonid
Trelagist
 
Still leaving my vote on Alv though until we get a post from them. The last one wasn't terribly game relevant.

[AliasSheep]

Just as a note, I'm not making any judgement calls when I say that people haven't posted - I'm just looking at it objectively.

 

On my side, I never took it as such, don't worry.

 

Is that list in addition to the previous one by the way?

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

My current assumption is that Maili used the locution 'by the Ghostbloods' in order to indicate that the kill that took Araris down was specifically the Ghostblood kill. To be fair, depending on team composition, the Ghostbloods could have a Grandbow: this tells us nothing so far because a Grandbow killing on N1 would be perfectly consistent with either a Vigilante Noble or a Ghostblood Archer, and so it is not particularly informative as evidence.

However, I'm about 80% certain that the Shardblade wielder should be a Noble because the Ghostbloods have the goal of getting a Shardblade. Kind of defeats the point if they started with one. could have been raised in favour of a Noble Shardblade wielder is if they had not killed the first night, since we would exactly expect the Ghostbloods to go on a killing spree had they a Shardblade. To be sure, this is an asymmetric point: that there is a kill evidentially supports either that we have a Vigilante Noble, or that the Ghostbloods have a Shardblade. But had there been no kill, it would have stronger evidential support for there being a Noble Wielder than a Ghostblood Wielder.] So the 20% uncertainty includes the knowledge that Maili is a troll, and that we don't have assurance it is a safe item.

 

DeathClutch, why the day Heiring? Seems to me a great way to avoid having to chime in on a lynch.

 

Note: The grey brackets denote an additional point I am making that is, however, neither germane nor essential to my main point.

 

Edited for colour.

 

Edit 2: I don't think the Ghostbloods have both a Grandbow and a Shardblade though. That would be so overpowered that what, 90% of us should have Shardplate or something. So if the statement 'Either the Ghostbloods have a Grandbow or they have a Shardblade' is true (which it might not be, but we have no evidence to tell either way at this stage), then I would be more willing to put my spheres on the Shardblade being on our side.

Because I don't want to waste a night action, and i can still chime in on the lynch. My vote just won't count. So basically it's more effective to declare Heir's during the day in my opinion anyway.

[AliasSheep]

Because I don't want to waste a night action, and i can still chime in on the lynch. My vote just won't count. So basically it's more effective to declare Heir's during the day in my opinion anyway.

Why'd you say that?

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

Why'd you say that?

Because Kas asked me why I declared an Heir during the day..and then preceded to vote for me.

[AliasSheep]

Because Kas asked me why I declared an Heir during the day..and then preceded to vote for me.

I mean why declaring an heir is more effective during the day.

Unless of course you have something particular you need the night actions for?

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

I mean why declaring an heir is more effective during the day.

Unless of course you have something particular you need the night actions for?

Oh sorry misunderstood.

Well, for me yes I do need my night actions. 

But not only that I also just think early lynches aren't that important and so it's fine to declare an heir during the day. 

Also having an heir is beneficial, as i'm sure you can see.

Edited April 26, 2016 by DeathClutch19

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I'll be putting my vote on Joe. Your call asking for someone PMing you seems phishy to me as that is basically ask people "Who has a spanreed?" Now, that is a bit on the non-good side for me.

But of course, that might just be a completely innocent call for some chat. Some things, you just never will know.

EDIT:

Joe oh wait. I misread that post to mean something else entirely. My fault! X(

Just to be certain, you are talking of my post asking if anyone was in a PM with Araris?

I don't think we'll be seeing use of those Spanreeds for quite some time. Anyone who starts a pm today will be suspected of either a shardbearer, or a Ghostblood, and attacked by the other. So, I'm going to ask both the ghostblood, who will undoubtedly ignore me, and the Shardbearer to anonymously give up the spanreed to someone tonight. That will at least give us communications on night three and onward.

Or, preferably, we can figure out a way to pass it on today, without the ghotsbloods or shardbearer figuring out who has it. That way we get communications tonight.

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

Just to be certain, you are talking of my post asking if anyone was in a PM with Araris?

I don't think we'll be seeing use of those Spanreeds for quite some time. Anyone who starts a pm today will be suspected of either a shardbearer, or a Ghostblood, and attacked by the other. So, I'm going to ask both the ghostblood, who will undoubtedly ignore me, and the Shardbearer to anonymously give up the spanreed to someone tonight. That will at least give us communications on night three and onward.

Or, preferably, we can figure out a way to pass it on today, without the ghotsbloods or shardbearer figuring out who has it. That way we get communications tonight.

The problem with that Joe, is what happens if a Shardbearer gives the spanreed to the Ghostbloods. That would be unfortunate

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Well, if that happens, and no PM's get made we can assume the recipient is a Ghostblood.

[AliasSheep]

Oh sorry misunderstood.

Well, for me yes I do need my night actions. 

But not only that I also just think early lynches aren't that important and so it's fine to declare an heir during the day. 

Also having an heir is beneficial, as i'm sure you can see.

Seems suspicious that you'd need all of them.  Chances of having 3 items seems low.

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

Seems suspicious that you'd need all of them.  Chances of having 3 items seems low.

Well, it's not impossible. I would tell you what I have but unfortunately we have no way to PM 

 

Also, to Joe. That sounds kinda sus. Do you not care if we have no PMs?

Edited April 26, 2016 by DeathClutch19

[Nyali she/her]

Is that list in addition to the previous one by the way?

 

They were both on the previous list too.

 

 

But not only that I also just think early lynches aren't that important and so it's fine to declare an heir during the day. 

 

Really? Early lynches are extremely important for the town, in my opinion. It's how the town moves toward a win. Even when we're wrong and hit a townie, the way people voted gives tons of information. Losing four in a single cycle though is terrible. I'm still surprised so many townies used vigilante kills on night one, seemingly at random (one was definitely random given they killed someone who never posted).

 

Of course, this game has more night activity than I'm used to, and more players. When there's less to do at night, and especially when the game is closer to 15 players, not lynching on day one just makes day two exactly like day one except a townie is dead, so the mafia winds up in a way better position than the town for day two.

 

 

Just to be clear on the rules, declaring an heir at night only takes the place of one action as if it was of one of the three categories? Also, what about for Spies, Artifabrians, and the Thief? Do their actions act like an item use, except the type (1A/1D/2) is wild? So, if you were a spy/artifabrian/thief with a spanreed (2), shardblade (1A), and painrial (1D), you could spy/create/steal, declare an heir, and use any one of those items, but not the other two?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Also, to Joe. That sounds kinda sus. Do you not care if we have no PMs?

Is it suspicious that I'm trying to come up with a plan to get PM's back? Not at all. Is it suspicious that I can't guarantee the plan will work? Not at all. Is it suspicious that if my plan fails, we'll have a likely ghostblood? Not at all. My plan is win/win. Either we get PM's back, or we get a ghostblood. What part of anything I said did you find suspicious?

 

EDIT: I never even implied I didn't care about not having PM's. I obviously do care.

 

Really? Early lynches are extremely important for the town, in my opinion. It's how the town moves toward a win. Even when we're wrong and hit a townie, the way people voted gives tons of information. Losing four in a single cycle though is terrible. I'm still surprised so many townies used vigilante kills on night one, seemingly at random (one was definitely random given they killed someone who never posted).

Alv? are you the shardbearer or in communication with the shardbearer?

Edited April 26, 2016 by The Only Joe

[Nyali she/her]

Alv? are you the shardbearer or in communication with the shardbearer?

 

Was that question for me or Alv?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I'm asking Alv. In the last game I GM'd, Alv killed three inactives in the first three cycles. I was quoting you because what you said made me realize what was going on. An inactive player had gotten killed.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Just to be clear on the rules, declaring an heir at night only takes the place of one action as if it was of one of the three categories? Also, what about for Spies, Artifabrians, and the Thief? Do their actions act like an item use, except the type (1A/1D/2) is wild? So, if you were a spy/artifabrian/thief with a spanreed (2), shardblade (1A), and painrial (1D), you could spy/create/steal, declare an heir, and use any one of those items, but not the other two?

Yes. Any role or heiring action can take the place of any action period and it can be chosen. 

[Nyali she/her]

Yes. Any role or heiring action can take the place of any action period and it can be chosen. 

 

Does night Heiring happen publicly by posting in the night thread, or in private via PM to the GM?

[AliasSheep]

Well, it's not impossible. I would tell you what I have but unfortunately we have no way to PM 

I'll hold you to that for when (if) we do get PM.

[little wilson she/her]

I'm asking Alv. In the last game I GM'd, Alv killed three inactives in the first three cycles. I was quoting you because what you said made me realize what was going on. An inactive player had gotten killed.

 

I'm not sure if it's Alv doing it (though it could be), but it definitely looks like the Shardblade wielder is taking out inactives. Which I can totally get behind. I'm more wary of whoever has the Grandbow. They're either going pure vigilante or they're a Ghostblood. HS seemed a little sketch to me last turn, but not enough to kill on Night 1. Maybe Night 2. Still, though, that hit doesn't really make sense for a Noble, so I'm actually thinking the Ghostbloods started with the Grandbow. Which is a little worrisome.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Does night Heiring happen publicly by posting in the night thread, or in private via PM to the GM?

It is private and counts as an action.

 

Ardel gave one last declaration as he died. "You all know me, I didn't have any PMs set up."

[Elbereth she/her]

Oh sorry misunderstood.

Well, for me yes I do need my night actions. 

But not only that I also just think early lynches aren't that important and so it's fine to declare an heir during the day. 

Also having an heir is beneficial, as i'm sure you can see.

You need all three night actions? Every night? I would think that you could find the time to spare an action one night, if you value heiring so much. Whatever.

  

The problem with that Joe, is what happens if a Shardbearer gives the spanreed to the Ghostbloods. That would be unfortunate

  

Well, if that happens, and no PM's get made we can assume the recipient is a Ghostblood.

What? Why wouldn't a Ghostblood make PMs? (Obviously, it depends on the Ghostblood, but if you're giving your Spanreed away I'm assuming you're giving it to someone who will use it.)

  

Really? Early lynches are extremely important for the town, in my opinion. It's how the town moves toward a win. Even when we're wrong and hit a townie, the way people voted gives tons of information. Losing four in a single cycle though is terrible. I'm still surprised so many townies used vigilante kills on night one, seemingly at random (one was definitely random given they killed someone who never posted).

That's what makes me suspect that the R&R players have those kills. Better to use the items before they die than to wait until you have a solid suspicion, because you might not survive that long. If I had a Shardblade, I probably would've killed someone N1. (Because I still feel bad about never using my kill role in QF12...)

 

Ardel gave one last declaration as he died. "You all know me, I didn't have any PMs set up."

What a surprise...

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Axies shouts: ""This is why village kill roles should not kill N1. Seriously, just use the lynch. If you can't, they shouldn't die."