Long Game 20: Warcamp Enigmas

[LUNA]

Also why you are voting on all of them, even the ones you disagree with?

 

 

I think that she just copied straight from HS list. I don't think she is voting for all of them (though, I do recommend that you change it Nyali...) 

[A Joe in the Bush]

It's night. She can't vote anyway.

[Master Elodin]

Oh right. Im dumb.

[Elbereth]

Wilson (disagree, good read, but I can be gullible)

I said this exact thing my first game. First here, in thread. And then in a PM, this happened:

What do you think of Wilson being evil?

As I've said in thread, I don't feel that she is. But I don't have any experience with her from before (nor anyone else), so she might just be really, really good at deceiving me.

Guess what happened the next day... >> Edited April 29, 2016 by Elbereth

[Nyali]

Sorry for any confusion. I just copy/pasted Hellscythe's post and added to it. Didn't think much of the colors since it was night.

Regarding the reads, they're weak ones. Posting them without context was intended to get posts like Orlok's. That said, Orlok, the second vote on a person who already has a vote on them is a key one early in the day, in my opinion. It helps start a train aiming at someone. Your reasons weren't bad though, which is why it was a very weak read, but it still gives a read because it's a good tactic for eliminators.

Yes, my reasons were the same. They were the same because your argument convinced me. Giving a sound argument against someone is, to me, very different than following said argument. Second votes against confirmed nobles are suspicious to me even with sound reasons.

That said, it's not a strong suspicion at all, but it is there and getting people to talk about it is useful. I'm not arguing for a vote against you or anything, just airing some thoughts and seeing what happens.

Regarding Joe, some other people who I was PMing with suggested his name as someone with a weak GB read, and I wanted to see what others thought.

(EDIT: minor edit for clarity.)

Edited April 29, 2016 by Nyali

[TheMightyLopen]

I skimmed through Joe's posts so far in the game, and nothing leaps out to me as being very suspicious. I agreed with most of what he's said so far I think. The only thing I noticed is that could be a bit suspicious is I don't think he participated in the lynch at all last Day Turn.

 

So, eh, I'm still neutral on him. There was a lot of no voting going on last Day Turn. Doesn't excuse him specifically, but I don't think it's necessarily an evil thing to do.

 

Edit: Nyali, what were your reasons for suspecting him?

Edited April 29, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Mailliw73]

Turn has been over for an hour. I will get the results up within a half hour. Any PMs Wilson made are now closed (I'd rather not go through each one. ).

[Mailliw73]

Day 3: The Land of the Free

 

Eobard lay in his bed, still and silent.

 

The door to his room slowly and quietly opened, letting a tiny sliver of dimness into the dark. The door closed again, just as softly, moments later, and the room sank into darkness again.

 

A tiny creak of the floorboards, so faint that it was barely noticeable. Then another. And one last creak, right next to Eobard’s bed.

 

A pause. Ten heartbeats.

 

Then a glow, blinding in the darkness. A Shardblade through the heart. Not even a sound.

 

But the light made something else clear. Eobard’s face was blue, and his eyes were open and horribly dilated.

 

Poison.

 

The Shardblade disappeared quickly. Then, creak, creak, creak, the door opened, and the assassin slipped back out without a word.

 

"Halt and identify yourself!" a voice called through the darkness, startling Subadon.

He stuck out his chin. "And why should I do that?" he asked mulishly.

A pause. "Um... because you're sneaking around at night right after the king's been assassinated?"

"So? I have the right to do that, don't I? This is a free country, after all."

"...The king was just assassinated. You're acting suspiciously. The guard needs to know why."

"I don't have to tell you anything I don't want to! Quit infringing on my freedoms!"

"Is it really infringement if I'm protecting everyone else in the process?"

"Um... yeah? Violating my personal rights is still a violation regardless of other circumstances. I have the right to do whatever I want, okay? If I want to, I have the right to kill the king!"

"Did- did you just say that you killed the king?"

"Um... no. Of course not. But I have the right to kill him if I want to. And he was a terrible king, anyway."

"So you wanted to, then. And you believed, wrongly, that you had the right to kill him."

"I-" Subadon closed his mouth.

"I'm putting you under arrest."

Subadon turned and ran, then. But he couldn't outrun the arrow speeding towards his back.

Eobard was killed by a Shardblade and the Ghostbloods! He was a Noble with a Soulcaster.

Subadon was shot by the Grandbow! He was a Ghostblood Artifabrian with no items. 

 

Edited May 1, 2016 by Mailliw73

[DeathClutch19]

Yes! Solid plays by the Grandbow user!!

[TheMightyLopen]

Well that changes my opinion on whoever has a Grandbow! 

 

Also, Elodin was attacked by a Blade and the Ghostbloods? What? Maill, who gets the Soulcaster in this situation? I mean, it may be a moot point if the Blade wielder is a GB, but, I'm not really sure why they'd double tap him.

[Mailliw73]

Well that changes my opinion on whoever has a Grandbow! 

 

Also, Elodin was attacked by a Blade and the Ghostbloods? What? Maill, who gets the Soulcaster in this situation? I mean, it may be a moot point if the Blade wielder is a GB, but, I'm not really sure why they'd double tap him.

It's a coin flip.

 

Eobard said, as he died: "DC is good Wilson knew about Soulcaster N1 I redirected Orloks role action last night I attempted to redirect DCs Wilson may be evil i do not trust Lopen 

END"

[Mark IV]

Perhaps they guessed elodin had protection? That might be why, in case the GBs have the shard blade, they double tapped him?

Props to the grand bow user!

So... Elodin died... he seems to have a habit of that in some games...

Edited April 29, 2016 by Mark IV

[TheMightyLopen]

It's a coin flip.

 

Eobard said, as he died: "DC is good Wilson knew about Soulcaster N1 I redirected Orloks role action last night I attempted to redirect DCs Wilson may be evil i do not trust Lopen 

END"

 

Ah, okay, thanks.

 

How did Wilson know about the Soulcaster on N1? Didn't she only have PM's last Night? Wilson?

 

Aaaaand he doesn't trust me...  (Well, I guess technically he didn't trust me, unless he just means he generally doesn't trust me as a person  )

[LUNA]

Woo hoowe finally got a bad guy! Go team. Go team. *dances* 

[Trelagist]

Now that MR13 is over, I'll finally be able to "main" this game. So, expect me to play more actively after this point on.

[Elbereth]

I'll wholeheartedly second that, once I recover from two final writeups in two days. >> Not GMing two games at once means a lot more time. Yay.

Maybe I'll finally be able to do that RP I've been promising for days...

[A Joe in the Bush]

Voting for my Feruchemist buddy Lopen. His playstyle seems very similar to his playstyle in MR13, namely, making little posts, assuring us that he is still here, and trying to talk to the experienced players. He also asked for a PM with Kas, which would have revealed a Spanreed holder to him.

 

I'll link to more exact posts and post more detailed feelings once I've slept, but for now, invite you all to go read MR13 so you can get a good read of me as an Eliminator.

[yafeshan]

Lopen is asking about who will get the soulcaster. If he is GB, he would have already knew it. On the other hand, he may be asking it for the purpose of misdirection. I would totally expect this kind of misdirection from him. He has my vote for the time being but I want to follow the discussion in order to decide finally

 

Hail the grandbow user, I was angry with her/him for the kill the other night but she/he redeemed herself/himself

 

(edit:Grammar)

Edited April 29, 2016 by yafeshan

[Nyali]

Wilson obtained an item from an artifabrian night one. Our first arti reveal is GB. Also, Wilson definitely claimed to be in contact with a soulcaster.

I decided last night that either DC or Wilson was GB from what was said in PMs. I'm given to believe DC now over Wilson. Sorry, Wilson! I still think you're cool outside of the context of this specific game!

I was going to vote for Luna right off this morning for sniping a Noble kill yesterday in the last 13 minutes of the day. Now, I'm not so sure because DC seems to trust her, her being his heir and all.

If my vote isn't key, I'd actually like to day heir. Wilson is my current heir and I now think she was playing me. But, I'm not sure who to declare. DC would be a bad choice because he implied on day two that he had three items already, so if he's noble, he couldn't use mine and he's have to forgo an item use to give it away. I don't have much, but I'd rather the GBs not get my particular item(s).

[Zas678]

I now feel a little bad- not only was I blatantly wrong in my voting, but I may have influenced the Shardbearer to attack (if they're not an Eliminator, which seems to make more sense unless they thought that Elodin had protection). 

 

Ah well. Live and learn.

 

So. Orlok was an Eliminator, eh? Let's see what he posted...

 

Strawman. Whilst I don't think that voting by RNG is enough to say you're guilty, it is enough to suggest that you're not being helpful - what do we gain if people vote by RNG? We can tell nothing about motivations for a vote - the result of which being a prime source of information gathering, and RNG voting really doesn't help in terms of lynching suspicious individuals.

 

Mostly, though, I'm voting to tie off the lynch - before Maill had made his clarification, and in light of QF14, Joe is absolutely right in that voting once on the GM seemed eminently sensible - and hence I don't think LUNA ought to die for it.

 

 

Frankly, I'd rather Strawman gets lynched than LUNA, but will remove my vote if a sound alternative candidate is chosen.

 

May I ask why? Strawman is at least active, LUNA barely posts. That being said i'm not really in favor of lynching either of them..

Because I don't think Strawman's activity has been helpful - it seems ill thought through, and, as Joe quite rightly said, has taken too much attention from other players.

 

During Night 2, he posts about history war stuff. Pretty interesting, but not relevant.

 

Then on Day 2...

 

 

Ok, so apologies for the lack of posting these last 48 hours - I haven't been feeling great at all, which, in combinartion with an unexpected avalanche of work isn't the most conducive to a coherent post..

 

Nyali, as I believe (although am not certain) I said on day 1, I didn't think what LUNA had said before acquiring two votes amounted to justification for a lynch, so voted to even the votes, and then didn't believe anyone was a better candidate than Strawman, so kept my vote on him. I'm not going to vote right now, but will try to make sense of my thoughts before the cycle ends.

 

Having been back through the thread, and not having made any material progress in determining thoughts, I'm going to call it a night and hope that I'm more functional tomorrow. Sorry about this. 

 

Then Night 2...

Orlok (agree, weak evil read)

 

Nyali, I must admit to being a little surprised by this. Last day cycle, you explained that your suspicion of me was due to my being the second vote on Strawman, and due to defending LUNA.

 

I shall address each of these in turn.

 

Having read through the game, the first seems incongruous with you statement on Day 1, where you voted on Strawman as the 5th vote (4th not counting Deathclutch's vote in spite of having made an heir), for exactly the same reasons as I set out to explain my having voted on Strawman, and the edit Strawman had made of his post.

Now, given Strawman's edit was a misinterpretation of the rules, I don't think it should have been given any weight in terms of analysing his actions, which means that your vote was based on exactly the same information mine was - and if mine was unsound, so too must have been your own.

 

Regarding defending LUNA, I shall reiterate my statements from the first day. I had (and have) little view on LUNA's alignment - but I did believe her to be more useful than Strawman from their limited interactions, and so decided to even the lynch to prevent it being led by a nominally dice decided vote - although one you later accurately point out was based on a roll of dice from players already with two votes, which made only LUNA eligible - a somewhat inconsistent argument from Strawman, and one which I felt should not be responsible for leading a lynch.

 

Further, I think that basing my alignment on a view of LUNA's alignment, and my single interaction (if it can even be called that) with LUNA is a little tenuous.

 

Regarding my inactivity. I'll apologise to everyone - I have been unwell these last few days, and struggling to keep up with work despite being ill. I'm feeling somewhat better today though, and the work is now once again very manageable. Whilst I will be out tomorrow evening, I can guarantee that I shall be fully active at the weekend - and so able to participate in the second half of Day 3 at the very least.

 

 

So pretty much all of Orlok's participation in the game has boiled down to his defense of the day 1 lynch victim Luna, and his vote for Strawman. This makes Luna a natural suspect, though it's possible Orlok was just pretending, picking one villager to defend, and then defending that decision. 

 

Also, Nyali seems to be a little more of a villager after prodding Orlok some more, when it wasn't obvious to do so. Clearly, a clever Eliminator can do the same thing, but it seems unlikely when Orlok didn't have a ton of suspicion on him in the first place.

 

EDIT- Formatting

[TheMightyLopen]

Voting for my Feruchemist buddy Lopen. His playstyle seems very similar to his playstyle in MR13, namely, making little posts, assuring us that he is still here, and trying to talk to the experienced players. He also asked for a PM with Kas, which would have revealed a Spanreed holder to him.

 

I'll link to more exact posts and post more detailed feelings once I've slept, but for now, invite you all to go read MR13 so you can get a good read of me as an Eliminator.

 

I've somewhat struggled to keep up with this game honestly. Between playing LG19 and MR13, along with trying to keep up with the Championship, I haven't had as much time as usual to keep up with the thread(there's been a lot more posting in this game than is usual). That being said, those games are over(Championship game isn't, but I won't be following as closely now...), so expect more from me(whether you get it or not though... ).

 

I generally try to talk as much as possible with experienced players in every game I play.

 

And I'm not sure what you mean with the comment about PM's. Why is asking for a PM suspicious?

 

Lopen is asking about who will get the soulcaster. If he is GB, he would have already knew it. On the other hand, he may be asking it for the purpose of misdirection. I would totally expect this kind of misdirection from him. He has my vote for the time being but I want to follow the discussion in order to decide finally

 

Hail the grandbow user, I was angry with her/him for the kill the other night but she/he redeemed herself/himself

 

(edit:Grammar)

 

The Soulcaster is one of the most powerful items in this game, especially if you have a lot of information. So of course I want to know who will get it.

[yafeshan]

 

The Soulcaster is one of the most powerful items in this game, especially if you have a lot of information. So of course I want to know who will get it.

 

I know it is pretty poverful. I was just saying it can be a good misdirection to ask about outcome of a Item transfer. 

However a good compilation of Subadon posts make Luna a big suspect. This is getting interesting.

[Kasimir]

All right, so this more or less exonerates our Grandbow archer. (With, always, a tiny bit of wariness held back.) I still think that reasoning indicates the Shardblade-wielder ought to be on our side, but at this point, the strongest evidence for it is still the knowledge that they are an extra victory condition for the Ghostbloods and so are unlikely to be granted them from the start. (Yes, I'm paranoid. Deal with it.)

Nyali, if you do have items, then unless it is a reverser or a Shard, then I don't really think it matters whom you declare as your Heir, so long as you do it publicly, because our thief is going to be going item-shopping the moment you die. (And really, assuming you don't die this night, you can always keep tweaking it.)

There's one thing I can't make sense of. If Orlok was a Ghostblood Artifabrian, then we would surely expect the Ghostbloods to make a Grandbow off the bat, because they want to rack up kills ASAP. (At least, that's my opinion: the immediate question ought to be: why turn down a free extra kill?) But then, why didn't we see an additional Grandbow kill last night? (Sure, Elodin redirected Orlok's role action to himself on N1, but that should just mean Orlok had a Grandbow. But then, why do we only see 2 kills, rather than 3?) 

 

Here is a related question. If we know the Ghostbloods had an artifabrian, and that no extra kills went off, then what happened to the spanreed Wilson received?

^ I solemnly swear this is neither my gut nor diarrhoea this time, but a question I wish to pursue.

Edit: Hang on a tick, why did Orlok die without any items? Hey Maili, if Orlok created a Grandbow on N1, would we still see it in his possessions by now?

Edited April 29, 2016 by Kasimir

[twelfthrootoftwo]

How did Wilson know about the Soulcaster on N1? Didn't she only have PM's last Night? Wilson?

I suspect that was intended to say "Wilson knew about soulcaster" and "N1 I redirected Orloks role action", as that makes more sense and the syntax matches "last night I attempted to redirect DCs".

 

(Sure, Elodin redirected Orlok's role action to himself on N1, but that should just mean Orlok had a Grandbow. But then, why do we only see 2 kills, rather than 3?) 

Why do you say that? Elodin's death cry only said he redirected Orlok's action, not who he directed it to.

 

There's one thing I can't make sense of. If Orlok was a Ghostblood Artifabrian, then we would surely expect the Ghostbloods to make a Grandbow off the bat, because they want to rack up kills ASAP. (At least, that's my opinion: the immediate question ought to be: why turn down a free extra kill?)

I think the item creation cooldown could conceivably explain this. The GBs stand to gain more from their kills if they can target people with roles and valuable items. If they spend a turn or two creating information-gathering items, eg a spanreed or an emotion bracelet, they might get more value out of the grandbow kill than the extra turn of a player being dead.

 

Elbereth, I'm in contact with a spanreed holder who also claims to be in contact with you. Does this sound right?

 

--

 

Also, general question to the group. You start with an emotion bracelet. Towards the end of the first cycle, you have a collection of vague suspicions, vague trusts, and people you're not sure about. Which group do you use the bracelet on?

[Kasimir]

Why do you say that? Elodin's death cry only said he redirected Orlok's action, not who he directed it to.

Why not? I grant it's an assumption, but IMO, it's perfectly logical: if I had a Soulcaster, that's exactly what I would do, because it makes Ghostbloods kill themselves, which means that I wouldn't run the risk of say, accidentally redirecting the Ghostblood to kill a Noble with a spanreed or our Shardblade wielder!

But here is further reason I simply made that assumption:

 

Yeah, that was intentional. Also, I think that people with Soulcasters should redirect a suspects killing/role/whatever it's called action to themselves so that if they're a Ghostblood they kill themselves. Unless you know that they are using a Painrial, which kind of clears them anyways.

For reference, the relevant post can be found here.

IMO, it would be really weird for Elodin to advocate something he didn't actually want to end up doing. So I don't think it's too much of a stretch to believe he would do exactly that. (And am I the only one who already found his harping on the Soulcaster strange from the get-go? It already seemed to me as though the reason he was so invested in strategising for Soulcasters was because he likely had one. But it's not the sort of thing you mention because if the Ghostbloods know, they know; if they don't, no sense in helping them.) Now, I will grant that there were other suggestions being advanced, e.g. 'Soulcasters, please swap actions to target people you distrust.' But that came after Elodin had already acted on N1; I find it implausible w.r.t. the timeline to think that would have influenced his past action--recall his post was made on Day Two.

So no, I don't know it, so I'll willingly grant I could be wrong. But I believe the evidence is with me on this

 

I think the item creation cooldown could conceivably explain this. The GBs stand to gain more from their kills if they can target people with roles and valuable items. If they spend a turn or two creating information-gathering items, eg a spanreed or an emotion bracelet, they might get more value out of the grandbow kill than the extra turn of a player being dead.

...You have a point, but still, that assumes they don't start with emotion bracelets or anything, which requires them not to have those items, since they'd only be able to use one item from Tier 2 at a time. I mean, it's theoretically possible, but so much depends on how Maili did the distributions that I'm currently reluctant to speculate too much on it.

Even so, my question still stands; I'm going to leave it up there first precisely because of your point, that information-gathering items are awfully convenient for them.

 

Also, general question to the group. You start with an emotion bracelet. Towards the end of the first cycle, you have a collection of vague suspicions, vague trusts, and people you're not sure about. Which group do you use the bracelet on?

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer because it depends on your predilections. You could be like Joe; we all know he likes to work out the people he trusts, so whoever he's left with are the people he finds suspicious. My personal take is that it would be more useful for our hypothetical person to go after the suspicions or the people they're not sure about. The reason beind that unless the emotion bracelet specifically says 'used Shardblade to kill' (my personal suspicion is that it will say 'used Tier 1 Action to kill' or so--Maili, could confirm please?), you aren't really going to find things to exonerate or to give you more reason to trust people. So you found out they Heired someone or used a spanreed. Cool. What's that do in terms of trust? What is that evidence for?

On the other hand, finding they killed or used a pain knife on someone? That's a bit more of a smoking gun, IMO, or at least more helpful.

Edited because my formatting went to hell.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Kasimir