Mid-Range Game 9: The Steel Ministry

[DeathClutch19]

So Alfa what are the chances that there's 2 pewterarm's dead on the Inquisition and you're the pewterarm for the skaa?

I'd say highly likely. Sorry for getting Orlok lynched guys my bad. He didn't give me reason to think he was good.

 

Edit: Adding in Day 5 reads now because my Day 4 reads are outdated and don't need to be referenced. Also I didn't want to make another post just for my reads.

 

Day5 Reads

 

DAY 5 READS

________________________________________________________________

REALLY GOOD

Creccio - Inor Haze - X

Deathclutch10 - Shi Kuratchi - Obviously I know I’m not skaa….

Phattemer - Axies - X

Winter Cloud - Sophia Erikell - X

Clanky - Lan - X - Kipper votes for Clanky D5

Wyrmhero - Wyrm Heron ??? - X- Claims Seeker - Good after vote on Lopen

rulelikeSTINK - No Name - Slight Sus

_____________________________________________________________

RippleGylf - Marie Lepinceau ??? - X so far (alive again i guess idk lol) Leaning Good

Venture Mistborn - Maxisum - No freaking clue

polcinghornbd - Elijah ??? - Sus + Sus on Post + Play to split votes - Claims Copper

(I guess I doubt the skaa have a 2nd copper which is why he’s here and not down there)

_____________________________________________________________

The Honey Badger - Dagbert Honerion - Sus Doesnt want to die + Sus on Post +NOD3Post

Nicocoberru - Coco -Sus Doesn’t want to die + Sus on Post +NOD3Post

Meandbooks - Ailyth   - Made it down to the bad section after votes D4

Alfa - Ashbringer Fadraux ??? - X Claims Peweterarm but doesn’t provoke? (bad)

Kipper - Kipper - Sus on Post + Post + NO D4 Post

Zephrer - Serech of House Huxer - SUS SILENCE Sus on Post

REALLY BAD

Edited October 29, 2015 by DeathClutch19

[STINK]

I am back from holiday now, so I have internet again! But I also have lots of work to do (though none of it is useful) that I must complete, so will have to spend less time on SE.

 

That said, basic thought here but couldn't we have one coinshot reveal themselves, then have a lurcher on them and that way we most definitely threaten the skaa as we can tell the coinshot what to kill, and see if any emotional allomancy happens on them, confirming that there is at least either a soother or rioter with the skaa, as well as making the skaa be in more danger due to there being a threat of the lynch and a coinshot.

 

Someone could also watch the alleged coinshot to see if they actually performed an action on the target.

 

There are probably faults here that I can't think about, because I made up this plan as I went along

Edited October 29, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[DeathClutch19]

There's 2 lurchers dead stink. I'm not so sure the coinshot would be protected if they came out (They'd probably die). However they could come out and just get their last shot off while being copperclouded. It's up to them.

[STINK]

Can someone make a player list? 

[Amanuensis]

Hope it's alright for me to post the up-to-date playlist and nothing else, since I'm just an observer at this point.

 

Player List

1. Wyrmhero - Wyrm Heron

2. IrulelikeSTINK - No Name

3. Alvom Halbin - Andierre Reynaud - Inquisitor Pewterarm

4. RippleGylf - Marie Lepinceau - Inquisitor Soother

5. Venture Mistborn - Maxisum

6. Orlok - Locke Tekiel - Inquisitor Pewterarm

7. Winter Cloud - Sophia Erikell

8. Mailliw73 - Milon Bulvier - Inquisitor Rioter

9. Araris Valerian - Arad Penrod - Inquisitor Seeker

10. Alvron - Jak - Inquisitor Lurcher

11. Creccio - Inor Haze

12. The Honey Badger - Dagbert Honerion

13. TheMightyLopen - Kellam Lyre - Skaa Seeker

14. polkinghornbd - Elijah

15. Nicocoberru - Coco

16. Alfa - Ashbringer Fadraux

17. Kasimir - Koschei Jerzy

18. Phattemer - Axies

19. Kipper - Kipper

20. Clanky - Lan

21. Sart - Mar - Inquisitor Lurcher

22. Shallan - Citona Vinid - Skaa Coppercloud

23. The Only Joe - Joel Tormander - Inquisitor Tineye

24. Zephrer - Serech of House Huxer

25. Meandbooks - Ailyth

26. Deathclutch10 - Shi Kuratchi

[the winter system]

Whoah. Coinshot pro. Good job. On Orlok, I was certain he was evil. Oh well. You get some and you lose some and I'm considering that this cycle is a victory, even if we lost a Lurcher. Two Eliminators down is a great job done. Clap yourself on the back, Coinshot(s?). 

[Wyrmhero]

While our Coinshots are really stopping us from being in a bad position, I'd feel a lot better about it if we could now use these two dead guys to pin the others down, preferably in a macabre fashion by throwing their corpses on top of them.

 

We've used up three shots of Steel so far, and we probably have between 1-3 uses left. It may be worth saving them for now, and seeing what we can get out of discussion this Cycle before using them during the next one. Unless the Coinshots feel they are likely to be targeted, that is, in which case you should use them now so they aren't wasted, but still with a degree of caution. They should definitely remain hidden though, particularly now we've lost two Lurchers.

 

I'm voting for Winter. I haven't seen many informative posts from her, and this current post just reads like 'I'm a Villager, look how happy I am about this'.

 

I also do not like Deathclutch's list, or at least the parts that judge innocence entirely based on whether they voted for someone Deathclutch think is guilty. There is nothing saying the Eliminators can't vote for each other. It's only when people are in danger of being lynched that who voted for them becomes massively important and can be used to judge a player.

[Creccio]

I wonder where the third shot came from Wyrm

 

 

We've used up three shots of Steel so far, and we probably have between 1-3 uses left. It may be worth saving them for now, and seeing what we can get out of discussion this Cycle before using them during the next one. Unless the Coinshots feel they are likely to be targeted, that is, in which case you should use them now so they aren't wasted, but still with a degree of caution. They should definitely remain hidden though, particularly now we've lost two Lurchers.

 

[Wyrmhero]

I wonder where the third shot came from Wyrm

 

In a game like this, it is possible that Gamma has given the skaa a limited number of Steel. I don't think this is likely though, because I would have definitely expected them to make use of it on previous Nights. So I am running under the assumption that Orlok's death was just a misfire, however justifiable a misfire you might think it was.

[Creccio]

Orlok death? He was lynched yesterday. Did you read the tally of last day?

[Wyrmhero]

Orlok death? He was lynched yesterday. Did you read the tally of last day?

 

...I am forgetting that this is both a Day and a Night Turn rolled into one >>.

 

So yes, we have used up 2 shots. That could be all our Coinshot(s) have, or they could still have plenty of fuel. Regardless, we do need to pick up the slack so we don't waste the opportunity they've given us

[Creccio]

...I am forgetting that this is both a Day and a Night Turn rolled into one >>.

 

So yes, we have used up 2 shots. That could be all our Coinshot(s) have, or they could still have plenty of fuel. Regardless, we do need to pick up the slack so we don't waste the opportunity they've given us 

 

 

Other than winter, would you care to give us your up to date list on everyone? I am doing some math for school right now and will have to leave but I will come back and post everything I have

 

Edit: Added quote

Edited October 29, 2015 by Creccio

[Wyrmhero]

Other than winter, would you care to give us your up to date list on everyone?

 

Honestly, at this point my up-to-date list on everyone is 'I wouldn't trust a single one of you as far as I could throw you, with the possible exception of Karripimar'. And that's just because Kas was rather talkative before he had to quit for RL reasons. I have no strong feelings about this new incarnation of him.

 

People I am specifically cautious about are basically just Winter, Deathscythe and somewhat you, but that's probably just lingering from a few Cycles ago. I'm not even sure what my reason for being suspicious of you was anymore, if I am perfectly honest.

 

I would quite like to hear Kipper's reasoning for voting for Clanky, as well as whether there is any actual evidence Deathscythe has for Alfa being guilty without bringing up Role divisions.

[Creccio]

Who is Karripimar?

[Wyrmhero]

Who is Karripimar?

 

Kasimir/RippleGylf's unholy polymerisation.

[Creccio]

Ok, for some reason i thought it was Kipper but it being Kas makes more sense... Have to get used to some of the names lol

[DeathClutch19]

 

People I am specifically cautious about are basically just Winter, Deathscythe and somewhat you

 

To be honest, I prefer the name Hellscythe.

Deathscythe isn't a name I associate with at all. Deathclutch is but I prefer Hellscythe.

 

Also if you're asking my evidence against Alfa you didn't read my will. That's ok I didn't die anyway so I don't blame you.

I'll repost it here for you.

Alfa - Ashbringer Fadraux ??? - X Claims Peweterarm but doesn’t provoke? (bad)

Why be pewter and not try to provoke an attack by the baddies? Seems like an easy skaa play to claim pewter to me. Susp.

2 inquis-aligned pewter dead. Chances of 3. Minimal.

 

Also I have something new to bring to the table.

 

 

Kipper being Skaa

Skaa Kills

______________________________________________________________________________

Mailliw-Medkit-9 atium --------------------------------------------Killed by skaa n1

Alvom - Larger Pan, Medkit, 0 Atium (as of C11)------------Killed by skaa n2

Sart (aka a smart guy) - 1 atium :\-------------------------------Killed by skaa n3

Note: All members of coporation (skaa) in previous game.

Now Alvron is killed by skaa-----------------------------------Killed by skaa n4

______________________________________________________________________________

Most suspicious because of these kills

Lopen --- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5) he's skaa but seemed saltier about wyrm rather than the actual corporation

Orlok--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5)

Alvron--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5)

Kipper--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (Last one still alive) <SKAA> Also the last experienced player left on the bad side of my list to have the knowhow to kill Alvron and the corporation players. He also votes for Clanky a very townie town.

 

Edit: @Wyrm As you might guess I don't like your vote on Winter because you're both in my town list. Also to clear up any misconceptions I didn't base your innocence solely off your vote on Lopen. It just pushed you over the edge from "Almost Pretty Good" to Good.

Edited October 29, 2015 by DeathClutch19

[STINK]

Though this isn't that helpful, it is kinda my thing to do this.

 

Kipper, tell us more of your actions these last few days.

 

EDIT: There are a lot of people looking at this thread! 

Edited October 29, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[polkinghornbd]

I don't think that skaa would really kill in such a pattern, besides killing off all the players who were talkative because that helps them. I see that as a possible way to cast suspicion on another. Also, on your list, deathclutch, you put me as not likely a skaa because I was a copper and the skaa shouldn't have two coppers. While that might be true that the skaa only have one copper, the roles are given out randomly. For all we know, the eliminator a could all be copper, or as many as were assigned. M not going to vote now because my class starts in five minutes, but I will get on later and look at this.

[DeathClutch19]

Again. I UNDERSTAND that the roles are uncertain. I also believe Gamma would make a balanced game. Not that I know Gamma personally that's just what I heard. Your position on the list was moved from Skaa to (almost skaa). Not proven innocent.

 

Anything not in light green is not 100% certain! I said that at the end of the list in my will the day before.

 

I can only make assumptions just like all of you. And ruling things out just because "the eliminator could all be copper" is getting us nowhere. If we base everything on the extremes we can't make any assumptions as to who the skaa are. We have no true seeker roles and therefore every lynch we make will HAVE to be an assumption. And if you play the "what if" game all day long you're not making any assumptions you're only making excuses as to why those assumptions MIGHT not work.

 

Nothing in this game is certain. The "what if's?" are endless. So I make do with what is given to me little by little.

 

 

Edit: typo

Edited October 29, 2015 by DeathClutch19

[Clanky]

@Deathclutch: Don't discount the chances that we were given three Pewterarms on the inquisitors. We made that mistake in LG14 and killed all of our Lifeless Operators(Similar to the lurchers in this game) because the GM would never give three protection roles to the same team. Spoiler, he did! Also Kipper may have good reason to be voting for me so I will be refraining from any sort of analysis based off the vote until we get the reasons.

 

I looked back through Lopens posts and unfortunately didn't find anything too damning. I do however have the opposite view that Lopens Skaaness makes Wyrm an inquisitor. There was never any really good reasoning why Wyrm voted for Lopen or vice versa and it the votes never put either of them at risk of a lynch. It could easily have just been banter to distance themselves once in case one of them is killed and revealed. In other words while they voted for each other neither of them actually tried to get the other one lynched.  I don't feel strongly enough based with just that to try and get wyrm killed but it definitely moved him up in suspicion for me. 

 

In fact I happen to agree with wyrm at the moment about Winter. There hasn't been much analysis and a few posts seem off to me including this one

 

Whoah. Coinshot pro. Good job. On Orlok, I was certain he was evil. Oh well. You get some and you lose some and I'm considering that this cycle is a victory, even if we lost a Lurcher. Two Eliminators down is a great job done. Clap yourself on the back, Coinshot(s?). 

 

Also the response here when Orlok questioned Winters behavior this game. Should we just consider anything odd that winter does a result of normal erratic behavior and just ignore it?

 

 

 

I have looked at your post about your points. Unfortunately, if I retract, there won't be a lynch as I won't vote against Creccio because I don't suspect them. Like your point about Joe, seeing if you're good or bad will give us info either way. 

 

Furthermore this part of the quote (shown above, Winter is talking about Orlok) really contradicts the quote this cycle in which Winter is certain that Orlok was evil

 

 

EDIT:        , So many Ninjas!

 

EDIT: Put Lopen where Orlok should have been

Edited October 29, 2015 by Clanky

[Kipper]

*snip*

 

Also I have something new to bring to the table.

 

 

Kipper being Skaa

Skaa Kills

______________________________________________________________________________

Mailliw-Medkit-9 atium --------------------------------------------Killed by skaa n1

Alvom - Larger Pan, Medkit, 0 Atium (as of C11)------------Killed by skaa n2

Sart (aka a smart guy) - 1 atium :\-------------------------------Killed by skaa n3

Note: All members of coporation (skaa) in previous game.

Now Alvron is killed by skaa-----------------------------------Killed by skaa n4

______________________________________________________________________________

Most suspicious because of these kills

Lopen --- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5) he's skaa but seemed saltier about wyrm rather than the actual corporation

Orlok--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5)

Alvron--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (died d5)

Kipper--- appeared in long game and quick fix and already sus (Last one still alive) <SKAA> Also the last experienced player left on the bad side of my list to have the know-how to kill Alvron and the corporation players. He also votes for Clanky a very townie town.

Okay, what the--

I died Night 1 in the QF. NIGHT ONE! Check the dead doc, I maybe posted like five or six lines in the Dead Doc and moved on. Like, I literally did not know who the Eliminators were in that game until you just posted something about them. IF you want to look at people who may be salty from the QF game (which is a bad idea, imo), you may want to look at someone who actually lived past N1...

P.S. I almost want to vote you for that, but I will remain strong.

 

About Clanky:

My red flags started D1, in the later portion of it. Clanky spent a good portion of time criticizing Joe's "plan," which we later found out to be not the real "plan." When I came and mentioned that it was a flawed plan, Clanky then spent a good portion of time attacking me, and it took me a bit to figure out why. I still don't understand why I was scrutinized so hard for saying that I saw some flaws. That's one. His vote on D1 also irks me for some reason, but I'm willing to overlook that.

 

D2: Suggest that Maill's death has some analytic value. I'd like to overlook this as well, but the post didn't actually say anything substantive about what value Maill's death might have. The post seemed to be more of a starter for other people to tack onto. It implied that perhaps some of the people who suspected Joe (like myself, presumably) might be evil. Again, though, it did not actually say anything concrete, and most of the other people during the day said that they did not think Maill's death had that much analytic value. So it seems to me that Clanky was simply trying to run a flag up a pole to see if would fly, to see if he could get a lynch going on someone he knew to be innocent. Of course, if he is evil, this is a great strategy to employ, because he has plausible deniability later. It's a very easy strategy to get behind, but I don't buy it for a D1 kill on Maill.

Also, Clanky does another Contribution Crusade thing, which just irritates me in general. I'm always wary of the Contribution Crusade, not because it doesn't have valid points, but because it was started by an Eliminator, and it's a nice strategy to use as an Eliminator.

D3: Not much to report. Voted zephrer for saying anti-skaa things without any analytic value, zephrer said "Yeah, but seriously I'm not skaa." Says Wyrm's plan wouldn't work that well.

D4: This post really stands out to me. Contrast what he says in this post with what he said earlier about Maill's death. Earlier he thinks that there is analytic value in Maill's death. Now he votes Alvron for voting Wyrm, with some strange reasoning, saying that:

 

Everyone can tell that players are normally targeted by eliminators based on their threat and activity levels. I'm sure Wyrm knows that and was saying that he can't see what else we can learn by analyzing these kills.

Also says that he would expect the skaa to avoid the conversation because of randomness and irrationality. (possible IKYK) Says that he has a lingering suspicion of Creccio, which I would agree with as well. 

Anyway, that about sums it up. D1, D2, and D4 contain my main suspicion points, especially that viewpoint change on Maill's death.

 

 

Deathclutch

Two questions for you. 

1. What does this

 

Kipper - Kipper - Sus on Post + Post + NO D4 Post

mean? I can't respond to it if I don't understand it. If all it is is that I was in the QF too, I'm perfectly willing to just ignore that.

2. Why do you say Clanky is a very "townie town", as opposed to just a "town?" Is it something particular about Clanky that makes him very innocent in your eyes?

 

Edit: STINK, what do you want to know?

 

Edit 2: Removed vote on Clanky

Edited October 31, 2015 by Kipper

[Clanky]

 

 

1My red flags started D1, in the later portion of it. Clanky spent a good portion of time criticizing Joe's "plan," which we later found out to be not the real "plan." 2 When I came and mentioned that it was a flawed plan, Clanky then spent a good portion of time attacking me, and it took me a bit to figure out why. I still don't understand why I was scrutinized so hard for saying that I saw some flaws. That's one. 3 His vote on D1 also irks me for some reason, but I'm willing to overlook that.

1: I wasn't criticizing the original "plan". We all knew that there was more to the plan than that, Joe himself said so. I was bringing up problems that would exist in any incarnation of a plan based upon what I knew.

2: You were acting like you saw a flaw that no-one else did when I had been discussing those things the whole cycle. You just seemed to be acting like you were the only one who could see the real problem in Joes plan when many people had already been discussing the flaws. Sorry if you felt you were being scrutinized but it was a strange thing for you to come in so late and act like you saw things no-one else did.

3: I voted for Sart he ended up being good oops? It was day one

 

 

Unfortunately I have to leave the internet for a while and can't give my response to everything now. I will be back though.

[Kipper]

1: I wasn't criticizing the original "plan". We all knew that there was more to the plan than that, Joe himself said so. I was bringing up problems that would exist in any incarnation of a plan based upon what I knew.

2: You were acting like you saw a flaw that no-one else did when I had been discussing those things the whole cycle. You just seemed to be acting like you were the only one who could see the real problem in Joes plan when many people had already been discussing the flaws. Sorry if you felt you were being scrutinized but it was a strange thing for you to come in so late and act like you saw things no-one else did.

3: I voted for Sart he ended up being good oops? It was day one

 

 

Unfortunately I have to leave the internet for a while and can't give my response to everything now. I will be back though.

1. Same as me. I was criticizing problems that would exist in any incarnation of the plan.

2. But it wasn't an act. I said things that no else said.

3. It's not that. I did that with Joe, so that's not my issue. It's just something about the reasoning that gets to me, and I can't pin it down. Don't pay too much attention to that. If it comes to me, I'll let you know.

 

STINK, what do you want from me?

[STINK]

Kipper, I wanted to see some analysis After all, if everyone says that the people who write long posts are dying, shouldn't we get the last few remaining to do their job? Also, I wanted to see you write a post after a whole cycle with no posts from Kipper! 

 

Do you have to ask me the same question for every post? 

 

I'm not really sure who to vote now, anyone know any other people who may pride themselves on their analysis skills that may not be doing much of it?