Long Game 110? [Sign Ups]: Termina Abandoned (A Majora's Mask Mafia Adventure)

[Haelbarde he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh sure let me grab my real ocarina and rewind time a few weeks, brb

Would you like to borrow mine?

Though perhaps talking to Burnt would be more productive - she has one with a Triforce on it I believe, so might have better odds at being the real deal. 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Mistfallen.

I'm up too late and need to go to bed, but I figured I could put a vote out. I'm still currently in favor of exeing a possible Stone Mask first, and a strongly suspected ally of that player second. Ash's plan is intriguing, though, and I'll reread it after I get some sleep.

Assuming we stick with the plan to exe Burnt, Mist, or Doc, we should pick the one we think is least likely to be e/e with Coco; which is why I've gone with Mist. If we point the exe at Mist or Burnt tonight, and they actually die, then they were very likely a villager. In that case, if Coco is also a villager, we've lost. To avoid that, I'd advocate we pick a person who's likely to be an elim in a v!Coco world.

If Mist dies today, then he was a villager and we're probably in the Burnt/Coco world hypothesized D1. Unfortunately, that ALSO means we need to identify an additional elim to kill D3, because Burnt probably has the mask in that timeline.

If Mist lives through the exe, then he's an elim, which I think means Coco is probably a villager (I don't remember why I think that, but it's somewhere in my brain?). In that case, it's IMPERATIVE that the second-place exe be an elim ally of Mist. Probably Hael?

Like I said, I'm overtired so all of this is subject to change when I see it with fully conscious eyes. But this is what I have for now.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

What about this: we vote Burnt as train #1 with someone in Ash's pool as train #2.

If Burnt is really invulnerable like you think, then you'll get exactly the outcome you want.

Is that a decent compromise? At least for the people who believe that Burnt is evil?

 

Yesterday it's "Burnt is probably evil, but we can't possibly vote her, because she can't possibly buy the Stone Mask"

Today it's "Burnt is probably evil, but we can't possibly vote her, because she can't possibly not have bought the Stone Mask"

In the most respectful way possible, this is nonsense and I will fight everyone to the death over it.

[Myst He/Him]

9 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

What about this: we vote Burnt as train #1 with someone in Ash's pool as train #2.

If Burnt is really invulnerable like you think, then you'll get exactly the outcome you want.

Is that a decent compromise? At least for the people who believe that Burnt is evil?

 

Yesterday it's "Burnt is probably evil, but we can't possibly vote her, because she can't possibly buy the Stone Mask"

Today it's "Burnt is probably evil, but we can't possibly vote her, because she can't possibly not have bought the Stone Mask"

In the most respectful way possible, this is nonsense and I will fight everyone to the death over it.

Agreed. And since we’re compromising. We can do Twin as the second person first. My votes on Burnt already

Edit: who else is on board? This doesn’t work without a majority of people 

Edited March 12 by Mistfallen Soldier

[Araris Valerian he/him]

30 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Alright, but before I do that, @TwinStorm because Aman didn’t do it. People who died:

Araris, TJ, Stick, Wonko, Drake, Dive, Archer, Ash.

Ash: auto-clear

Araris/Archer: volunteered to blow up and went threw with it - not Elim

Dive: Coco voted Dive over Burnt. Meaning that she wanted Dive to get voted out(which doesn’t make sense if Dive is Elim.

Drake: has been very helpful with analysis, pointing out stuff we missed or ignored. Also, when he subbed in he asked all sorts of questions. Which an Elim wouldn’t do because he could get the answers from the Elim doc, and doing it this way risked revealing info.

Wonko: has been helpful, I originally thought he was Elim due to his resistance to the blast mask, but now that we now he had postman that’s explained, not Elim.

TJ: TJ has been very active after irl stuff was cleared up, and has been providing solid analysis. Also, the slip up in the dead doc was apparently a reaction test

Stick: I think she’s Elim. Ironically for similar reasons to how she outed me last game. She’s been acting real similar to when we were teammates. A lot of her posts have had not a lot of analysis, or non at all. She’s been very “unsure” of her votes throughout everything, she’s very distant, only posting occasionally, and hasn’t posted a lot of reads in general. She’s also was a candidate for the scents mask. So Stick.

The Elim team is either Burnt/Coco/Stick/Hael or Burnt/Coco/Stick/Twin

Im not sure which. And I feel like exeing Twin or Hael is the smart play here because Coco is already exed, Burnt is invincible, and I think it’d be easier to convince yall to vote them than Stick(plus the Hael/Twin hedges against me being wrong)

I'm tinfoiling TJ as an elim. Mostly so I can say "I told y'all so" if he's actually evil, since I don't think I'm convincing anyone of this. To elaborate, he's the one that pushed most vocally against exeing in Burnt/Mist. A TJ/Mist/Burnt team could get v!coco exed, save Burnt with the Mask, and then it wouldn't be too hard to get another misexe in the remaining 2 turns, especially since Burnt going invincible would "clear" Mist. Again, this is rather convoluted, but it's worth some consideration IMO.

If TJ is village then I'm a little concerned about Archer due to his link with coco, but I'm pretty strongly in agreement with Drake here and Archer seems to be as well.

At least for now, I'm in favor of "exe Burnt and try to get an elim candidate in second place" as a strategy. We really need to resolve whether Burnt has the Stone Mask today so we aren't guessing going into D3.

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm tinfoiling TJ as an elim. Mostly so I can say "I told y'all so" if he's actually evil, since I don't think I'm convincing anyone of this. To elaborate, he's the one that pushed most vocally against exeing in Burnt/Mist. A TJ/Mist/Burnt team could get v!coco exed, save Burnt with the Mask, and then it wouldn't be too hard to get another misexe in the remaining 2 turns, especially since Burnt going invincible would "clear" Mist. Again, this is rather convoluted, but it's worth some consideration IMO.

If TJ is village then I'm a little concerned about Archer due to his link with coco, but I'm pretty strongly in agreement with Drake here and Archer seems to be as well.

At least for now, I'm in favor of "exe Burnt and try to get an elim candidate in second place" as a strategy. We really need to resolve whether Burnt has the Stone Mask today so we aren't guessing going into D3.

I think you’re giving me too much credit.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

25 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Agreed. And since we’re compromising. We can do Twin as the second person first. My votes on Burnt already

Yay I didn't think that would work honestly

sorry to be aggressive but I felt I needed to explain where I was at because it felt like the consensus was in a very different place 

I realize we won't all agree on Burnt v Mistfallen.

which is unfortunate for the voting strats (both parties would prefer 1 of Burnt/Mistfallen in the lead with an impoverished suspect in 2nd place, but both parties would quite prefer not to have Burnt/Mistfallen both as the top 2 wagons) but also understandable

 

Oh well, I guess I can always keep trying to sell people about Burnt v Mistfallen:

• I do think the main sticking point for anyone arguing Burnt is village is that then there's no good explanation for there being a kill at the end of last loop. Maybe it's a mistake to read into it that much, but it looks like every previous night kill or skipped kill has been pretty deliberate.
• I also kind of feel that a genuine scanner who caught an elim would come across as more excited about it, and try harder to get us to believe in them. From their point of view, they were just proven right by the game mechanics. They finally know exactly what the correct play is, and the only barrier is getting us to see it. In reality, Burnt accepted it immediately when we didn't believe her, and didn't volunteer any further information about her role to help us try to figure it out without prompting. Maybe my read is way off, but it doesn't feel like a village seeker claim to me at all.
• I also kind of think the fact that Burnt's truthfulness is even under question at all is a bit of a red flag honestly. My experience with other flipless games is that we usually still assume scans are real like 95% of the time. The fact that so many people's kneejerk response was "this is fake" says something, imo. Yeah yeah appeal to majority but still.
• I don't think the Burnt/Coco pairing is strong enough to bet the farm on. Yes, if we were certain evil!Burnt -> evil!Coco, then I guess we could afford to try flipping Mistfallen today, since we got Coco yesterday. We are not, and we cannot. Assuming you've hit an elim when there's no red flip wasn't a good idea on loops 1 or 2 and I think we ought to stop doing that.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

I think you’re giving me too much credit.

I mean, you just had to sit and get accused in this world, most of the burden falls on TJ/Burnt. I'm also not convinced that's you're elim on your own merits though. It's really just how hard TJ was pushing against exeing Burnt that has me really uncomfortable.

 

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

which is unfortunate for the voting strats (both parties would prefer 1 of Burnt/Mistfallen in the lead with an impoverished suspect in 2nd place, but both parties would quite prefer not to have Burnt/Mistfallen both as the top 2 wagons) but also understandable

Well, from my perspective it's not the end of the world, since e!TJ could imply Burnt/Mist as e/e.

[Myst He/Him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I mean, you just had to sit and get accused in this world, most of the burden falls on TJ/Burnt. I'm also not convinced that's you're elim on your own merits though. It's really just how hard TJ was pushing against exeing Burnt that has me really uncomfortable.

 

Well, from my perspective it's not the end of the world, since e!TJ could imply Burnt/Mist as e/e.

That’s true, but then we would have had to come up with that, and then hope yall take that specific interpretation. That’s the problem with 5D chess. The person playing 1D chess always wins.

Anyways, assuming there’s an Elim within Hael and Twin, what’s your read on them?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

5 minutes ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

That’s true, but then we would have had to come up with that, and then hope yall take that specific interpretation. That’s the problem with 5D chess. The person playing 1D chess always wins.

I mean, literally everyone (but maybe me) thinks you and Burnt are e/v, so that interpretation isn’t exactly far-fetched. Clearly whatever the elims are doing, they are fine with outing you/Burnt as a member, given what happened. The only tricky part is TJ convincing everyone to vote coco, but the cost of that failing isn’t really that high. It’s a low-risk gambit that basically wins the game if it succeeds.

I’d lean toward Twin as an elim over Hael, but it’s mostly gut rather than solid reasoning.

[Haelbarde he/him]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

The fact that so many people's kneejerk response was "this is fake" says something, imo. Yeah yeah appeal to majority but still.

A potential concern could be that in a game where it seems the elims are quite active and confident in their position, that noise could be the elims themselves...

Looking back at that, it's interesting that Mist doesn't immediately vote on Burnt after accusing her of lying and being an elim. It's only 15 minutes later after Archer suggest it.

Araris follows onto the vote:

Quote

So we know that one/both of Burnt/Mist are elim. I'm kinda inclined to think that Burnt is the elim, mostly because I don't want to believe that we are so incompetent we never managed to have an elim as a leading train. The question is whether this is an e/e ploy. I think if Mist was elim and Burnt was village then Mist would be counterclaiming rather than just kind of dodging.

So the reason to not trust burnt is because it'd mean we hadn't ever almost executed an elim, and he thought that maybe Mist would counterclaim. But I don't know that necessarily follows.

Ash, Coco, and myself sorta just ignore it in the first instance, though Coco slight sus' Mist over it, rather than Burnt.

Archer focuses more on e!Burnt possibilities, but they already had a vote on Burnt before Burnt's first post.

TJ suses Burnt, but mostly seems to be dead set on making Coco dead.

Weirdly Drake thinks v!Burnt is more likely, but votes Burnt anyway...

Doc vote Burnt without deeply caring about the whole matter.

I dunno. Looking at that, I'm feeling more weird about Mist/TJ, and maybe Doc, than I am Burnt.

But typically, if I'm trusting Burnt, she's evil, so I'm a little divided there.

I really need to look more at Doc I think.

---

Hael (0): Mist{1}
Mist (2): Doc{1}, Wonko{1}
Burnt (3): Mist{2}, Drake{1}, Araris{1}

 

 

[Through the living Wahr He/Him]

So, I too recieved an Unsigned Message, from the Contents within I assume it is from Ash. Containing certain Instructions as well as Codewords. 

@Burnt Spaghetti @Doc12

I assume you recieved the relevant Instructions and Codeword as well. Please inform me using the Codeword I assume you have recieved if you CAN NOT perform the Instructions.

If neither of you recieved Instructions or Codewords i assume I will have to PM you them for you to Perfrom D3 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

6 minutes ago, Wahrheitswächter said:

So, I too recieved an Unsigned Message, from the Contents within I assume it is from Ash. Containing certain Instructions as well as Codewords. 

@Burnt Spaghetti @Doc12

I assume you recieved the relevant Instructions and Codeword as well. Please inform me using the Codeword I assume you have recieved if you CAN NOT perform the Instructions.

If neither of you recieved Instructions or Codewords i assume I will have to PM you them for you to Perfrom D3 

In the Tourmaline Commander we trust. 

---

@Haelbarde The feelings mutual   No comment on the rest. Which is not helpful. I'm not sure i can comment on that without giving you a headache either direction  

---

@ uh.... "me", idk who you are lol.  but "Burnt bailed badly and biffed the buy of the stone mask"

Love the alliteration btw. But why do the others get more positive ones and mines just i failed   Can't Burnt Be Best Buddy or something?

---

 

Well idk who to vote now. Mist for now so that i have a vote down and he has one on him at least. I'm not going to have time until probably tomorrow to properly scrape through the others posts to decide who to vote. All i can say is that this sucks, but at least we're going to know for sure some elims for next loop + tiebreaker. Coco being evil makes things make sense for me. So coco + Mist. But as to who else i need to do more reading of backlog.

[Myst He/Him]

4 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

In the Tourmaline Commander we trust. 

---

@Haelbarde The feelings mutual   No comment on the rest. Which is not helpful. I'm not sure i can comment on that without giving you a headache either direction  

---

@ uh.... "me", idk who you are lol.  but "Burnt bailed badly and biffed the buy of the stone mask"

Love the alliteration btw. But why do the others get more positive ones and mines just i failed   Can't Burnt Be Best Buddy or something?

---

 

Well idk who to vote now. Mist for now so that i have a vote down and he has one on him at least. I'm not going to have time until probably tomorrow to properly scrape through the others posts to decide who to vote. All i can say is that this sucks, but at least we're going to know for sure some elims for next loop + tiebreaker. Coco being evil makes things make sense for me. So coco + Mist. But as to who else i need to do more reading of backlog.

Well, there’s a tie right now, and I’d lose. First off we’ve both earned the same number of rupees, but you have more right now. I have three, you have more right now(we’re equal overall)

However it’s not actually a tie because you can’t be targeted so I’d lose anyways 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I mean, literally everyone (but maybe me) thinks you and Burnt are e/v, so that interpretation isn’t exactly far-fetched. Clearly whatever the elims are doing, they are fine with outing you/Burnt as a member, given what happened. The only tricky part is TJ convincing everyone to vote coco, but the cost of that failing isn’t really that high. It’s a low-risk gambit that basically wins the game if it succeeds.

I’d lean toward Twin as an elim over Hael, but it’s mostly gut rather than solid reasoning.

Stick at least at one point thought they were e/e, but yes it's not a very popular opinion.

I really wanted to see a world where they were e/e since I did suspect Mistfallen a fair amount during the previous loop, but I don't think it's true because I don't think a reasonable elim team predicts ahead of time that we vote neither option we're given

18 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Quote

The fact that so many people's kneejerk response was "this is fake" says something, imo. Yeah yeah appeal to majority but still.

A potential concern could be that in a game where it seems the elims are quite active and confident in their position, that noise could be the elims themselves...

Fair point.

...but if we're sold on the elims being more likely to be found in active and confident positions, "the accuser" is generally a more active and confident position than "the accused", no? That points back to Burnt, who proactively accused Mistfallen at the beginning of the day. Also, there was an active and confident push against voting Burnt despite those sentiments that her claim was fake: there was the successful push to vote Coco instead.

also that was a response to the weakest of my 4 points imo smhh

I guess the last AG might've trained us to be more willing to vote out seekers, though, huh. That might be part of why people were more willing to at least consider voting Burnt.

21 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Looking back at that, it's interesting that Mist doesn't immediately vote on Burnt after accusing her of lying and being an elim. It's only 15 minutes later after Archer suggest it.

I did notice that and honestly it was a minor point against Mistfallen, but I still come down on Burnt.

...as an aside I also think it's a clue that Mist and Burnt aren't teamed. In that world I think they quickly vote each other and play it up for drama. Forgetting to vote until someone else reminds you to do it doesn't feel very scripted, and I think yesterday must have been heavily scripted if we buy that Burnt/Mist is E/E.

If I had a nickel for every time Archer pinged someone asking them to vote in self-preservation this game, I'd have 2 nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice.

[Myst He/Him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Stick at least at one point thought they were e/e, but yes it's not a very popular opinion.

I really wanted to see a world where they were e/e since I did suspect Mistfallen a fair amount during the previous loop, but I don't think it's true because I don't think a reasonable elim team predicts ahead of time that we vote neither option we're given

Fair point.

...but if we're sold on the elims being more likely to be found in active and confident positions, "the accuser" is generally a more active and confident position than "the accused", no? That points back to Burnt, who proactively accused Mistfallen at the beginning of the day. Also, there was an active and confident push against voting Burnt despite those sentiments that her claim was fake: there was the successful push to vote Coco instead.

also that was a response to the weakest of my 4 points imo smhh

I guess the last AG might've trained us to be more willing to vote out seekers, though, huh. That might be part of why people were more willing to at least consider voting Burnt.

I did notice that and honestly it was a minor point against Mistfallen, but I still come down on Burnt.

...as an aside I also think it's a clue that Mist and Burnt aren't teamed. In that world I think they quickly vote each other and play it up for drama. Forgetting to vote until someone else reminds you to do it doesn't feel very scripted, and I think yesterday must have been heavily scripted if we buy that Burnt/Mist is E/E.

If I had a nickel for every time Archer pinged someone asking them to vote in self-preservation this game, I'd have 2 nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice.

Love the phineas and ferb reference(not related to gameplay at all) 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...as an aside I also think it's a clue that Mist and Burnt aren't teamed. In that world I think they quickly vote each other and play it up for drama. Forgetting to vote until someone else reminds you to do it doesn't feel very scripted, and I think yesterday must have been heavily scripted if we buy that Burnt/Mist is E/E.

What are your thoughts on Burnt/TJ, given how hard TJ worked to save Burnt? I’d assume if coco is village then TJ is elim. And if coco is elim then Archer probably is.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

Weirdly Drake thinks v!Burnt is more likely

this is slander 

40 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

What are your thoughts on Burnt/TJ, given how hard TJ worked to save Burnt? I’d assume if coco is village then TJ is elim. And if coco is elim then Archer probably is.

I mean, I want Burnt/TJ to be true because that'd mean my main pushes this game have been on point

but I acknowledge that our loss last loop means that just statistically speaking TJ is more likely to be village, since at most 1 elim was in that dead doc

There's also part of me that says suggesting we vote off of Burnt/Mist is something a villager initially suggests (kind of brazen for most elims), but an elim opportunistically agrees with (edit: in this world Stick sticks out like a sore thumb, pun intended ). Maybe this intuition is wrong if we think the elim team is full of powerwolves.

(Or maybe Coco really was evil, it's possible, I just have my doubts. Especially because that would mean there was no significant pushback yesterday against two wagons on wealthy elims, and I find that hard to explain away. But it remains possible the elims have been playing more passively in the thread this entire time and we've just lost multiple loops to friendly fire.)

I'm kind of all over the place in terms of who I think the 4th elim is. Maybe it's TJ, maybe it's Stick, maybe it's you. Probably 1 of those 3 is where I'm at with it right now. I haven't been prioritizing figuring it out much. I assume they were most likely in the dead doc, but it'd sure be convenient if they weren't and our suspect pool of 6 is actually mostly elims.

 

edit: If we didn't have Burnt/Mistfallen + the suspect pool of 6 survivors from last loop, all of which needs resolution, I'd probably be down to try voting Stick today for the good of science. I think I would prefer it over TJ actually.

Don't want to get too distracted though. We can get our 2 elims needed to win the loop from the suspect pool of 6, and even win the sudden death by picking off the third. I kinda don't think we will succeed in doing all that, but it's probably our best path to victory right now.

edit2: There's a cursed world where we do our job too well and kill all 3 elims during loop 4, and have to kill the final one if we're going to have a chance in the sudden death. It's possible the elims will even force this outcome with an NK during loop 4. It's also possible the elims will pretend to do that and actually kill a villager in the suspect pool. The sudden death rules are somewhat unusual. Honestly if we even make it to sudden death I'll be happy though.

Edited March 12 by DrakeMarshall

[|TJ| he/him]

Yeah, I'm quite disheartened and a bit lost that there is now a possibility that Burnt has the Stone Mask and we could have voted her out yesterday. I'm sorry. 

There is a possibility, however, that Scents Mask was purchased by a 3rd teammate and not Coco, in which case both Coco and Burnt could have afforded the Stone Mask. Still, I apologize. 

8 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Ash is village, but with all due respect, rule one of being a villager is that you'll sometimes have bad takes.

I don't see a decent reason for Ash's assumption that only 1 of the 50 rupees club could be evil. I do think Burnt is evil for all the reasons stated yesterday. Finally, hill is village and I'm lowkey prepared to die on that Hael (...I meant what I said ).

I'm voting Burnt, which is what I think we probably should've done yesterday.

There's a very real danger here that Burnt has the Stone Mask despite the apparent levels of certainty people had yesterday that this wasn't possible, but I think we just bite the bullet and take that risk. I happen to think that the group of Stone Mask afforders contains multiple elims, so refusing to push them just because it's risky or a pain isn't a workable option from my point of view.

Engineering the votes so that our top 2 wagons are both evil is a royal pain, don't get me wrong. But I guess we'll just have to try our best. Anyways, I figure there's a decent chance e!Doc has the Stone Mask and e!Burnt doesn't. Petition Alvron to intercede for us to the gods of luck and chance, maybe.

I'm behind on backreading, so maybe my views will change. It has been known to happen before, rarely  but this is currently how I feel about the game state.

Agreed with everything here. 

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm tinfoiling TJ as an elim. Mostly so I can say "I told y'all so" if he's actually evil, since I don't think I'm convincing anyone of this. To elaborate, he's the one that pushed most vocally against exeing in Burnt/Mist. A TJ/Mist/Burnt team could get v!coco exed, save Burnt with the Mask, and then it wouldn't be too hard to get another misexe in the remaining 2 turns, especially since Burnt going invincible would "clear" Mist. Again, this is rather convoluted, but it's worth some consideration IMO.

If TJ/Mist/Burnt team, why create a crossfire in the first place?

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I mean, you just had to sit and get accused in this world, most of the burden falls on TJ/Burnt. I'm also not convinced that's you're elim on your own merits though. It's really just how hard TJ was pushing against exeing Burnt that has me really uncomfortable.

I agree that I am not usually the most vocal of the villagers. I usually just put forward my ideas and just hope it makes sense to people but there have been many times I wished I had pushed a bit more to convince other people when I had found out I was right after the fact. Now, I don't know if I'm right this time, but this is me trying. 

 

I agree that going for Burnt is absolutely the right move here. We'll create a long enough train and then pivot off to a secondary target. 

I will note that for the last Turn and a half, Doc has been increasingly motivated on proving he does not have the Stone Mask than on solving the game. Therefore, I am fully ignoring any attempts to prove that they do not have Stone Mask. I'll tell you why, e!Doc never NEVER equips the Stone Mask without "clearing" themselves by proving they do not have the Mask. They ONLY equip the mask N2C in preparation for D3C, because they know they would never come under fire in this Day. As such, I am least interested in exe-ing a possible e!Stone!Doc (because y'all will kill me if I propose exe-ing them this cycle over Burnt  and they are always surviving D3C). So, currently on-board with the plan to exe Burnt with the side-train Twin (or Doc). 

Meanwhile, I'll think about a potential team in [Burnt, Coco, Archer, Doc, TwinStorm]. Sigh. 

Edited March 12 by |TJ|

[Archer he/him]

I have a note that says Burnt-Doc not e-e and I don't remember why. 

-Elims are going for the win this cycle, as they have every cycle. 

-Elims expected us to exe Mistfallen and Burnt. So they're not e-e.

-NK framing scheme means E!Burnt. 

My preference right now is to make Doc and Burnt the two top trains. 

[|TJ| he/him]

Okay I've started to go through Mistfallen's post, but no, they're irrevocably village, I will not continue their re-read as I feel like it is pointless because its quite set in my mind as Mistfallen. 

This means at least 1 elim in [Doc, Burnt]. Agreed Doc's posts in Loop 2 maybe implies Doc/Burnt not e/e but I will have to look into them more deeply now. 

This brings us to at least 2 elims in [Coco, Hael, TwinStorm]. Makes me feel better about voting out Coco, not gonna lie. 

And at most 1 elim in [Araris, Stick, Wonko, Drake, Divergent, Archer], but realistically, for me, it can only be [Archer] in that group. 

Day 2C - 

Vote Burnt with TwinStorm side-train -> If Burnt dies, Doc is evil and we keep that info for Loop 4. This does not necessarily mean Burnt isn't evil. This would be the case                                                                             where we need to rethink Burnt-Coco e-e case  ->  Exe TwinStorm next? 

                                                              -> If TwinStorm dies, Doc is village, Burnt evil -> Exe Hael next to finish off the [Coco, Hael TwinStorm] bracket

I still don't understand Doc's (claimed) hesitancy to not go for Stone Mask. If you are village, you make absolutely sure that Stone Mask does not end up in elim hands. Why are you worried about how it would be perceived if you take it? You go for it and then convince us you are village, surely. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Yay I didn't think that would work honestly

sorry to be aggressive but I felt I needed to explain where I was at because it felt like the consensus was in a very different place 

I realize we won't all agree on Burnt v Mistfallen.

which is unfortunate for the voting strats (both parties would prefer 1 of Burnt/Mistfallen in the lead with an impoverished suspect in 2nd place, but both parties would quite prefer not to have Burnt/Mistfallen both as the top 2 wagons) but also understandable

 

Oh well, I guess I can always keep trying to sell people about Burnt v Mistfallen:

• I do think the main sticking point for anyone arguing Burnt is village is that then there's no good explanation for there being a kill at the end of last loop. Maybe it's a mistake to read into it that much, but it looks like every previous night kill or skipped kill has been pretty deliberate.
• I also kind of feel that a genuine scanner who caught an elim would come across as more excited about it, and try harder to get us to believe in them. From their point of view, they were just proven right by the game mechanics. They finally know exactly what the correct play is, and the only barrier is getting us to see it. In reality, Burnt accepted it immediately when we didn't believe her, and didn't volunteer any further information about her role to help us try to figure it out without prompting. Maybe my read is way off, but it doesn't feel like a village seeker claim to me at all.
• I also kind of think the fact that Burnt's truthfulness is even under question at all is a bit of a red flag honestly. My experience with other flipless games is that we usually still assume scans are real like 95% of the time. The fact that so many people's kneejerk response was "this is fake" says something, imo. Yeah yeah appeal to majority but still.
• I don't think the Burnt/Coco pairing is strong enough to bet the farm on. Yes, if we were certain evil!Burnt -> evil!Coco, then I guess we could afford to try flipping Mistfallen today, since we got Coco yesterday. We are not, and we cannot. Assuming you've hit an elim when there's no red flip wasn't a good idea on loops 1 or 2 and I think we ought to stop doing that.

Kinda just do think Burnt is e, but the argument for the kill last loop is the argument for the kill this loop, if they kill Ash three times, they can potentially steal a 100 Rupee mask

[Stick. she/her]

13 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Ashbringer was removed from the Loop

lowk was hoping ash actually did have the mask and was trying to bait the nk,, this is so sad alexa play despacito 

 

@Mistfallen Soldier u can expect my activity level to remain as exactly this.   I only get a limited window in the day to play and even that’s not always certain so…. 

can someone remind me why doc and burnt cannot be e/e? Was it just a vote from some previous cycle? or just link to a post explaining it 

I will say tho a point of hesitation for me is, if I were in e!doc’s shoes with e!burnt id have just instinctively gone all ‘oh I tried bidding for stone but I didn’t get it, sadge’ (there’s no way of verifying this right? u can’t track players to shop purchases idt) instead of just outright saying he didn’t even try for it,,  that sorta makes it look like he deliberately abstained to let teammate burnt have better odds at grabbing it so im not sure what that should mean, if a teammate would’ve thought through the implications - OH and there was also a point yesterday where I thought maybe doc was lying to bait the nk as well but imo u should just reveal it now if this is the case, it’s counterintuitive not to @Doc12

 

if we think burnt has it then she should definitely be the leading wagon cuz otherwise they might not equip it to make it seem otherwise, if it hasn’t been equipped already. having them be top wagon should force an equip at least 

and someone sent me a crossword…how nice….ty 

[Archer he/him]

12 minutes ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

Kinda just do think Burnt is e, but the argument for the kill last loop is the argument for the kill this loop, if they kill Ash three times, they can potentially steal a 100 Rupee mask

That was a possibility when Stick raised it yesterday, but now we know they were in competition for Stone, so worsening their odds doesn't make sense. 

8 minutes ago, Stick. said:

I will say tho a point of hesitation for me is, if I were in e!doc’s shoes with e!burnt id have just instinctively gone all ‘oh I tried bidding for stone but I didn’t get it, sadge’ (there’s no way of verifying this right? u can’t track players to shop purchases idt) instead of just outright saying he didn’t even try for it,,  that sorta makes it look like he deliberately abstained to let teammate burnt have better odds at grabbing it so im not sure what that should mean, if a teammate would’ve thought through the implications - OH and there was also a point yesterday where I thought maybe doc was lying to bait the nk as well but imo u should just reveal it now if this is the case, it’s counterintuitive not to @Doc12

If you assume e!Coco, Burnt had to be the one to get Stone, lest they lose the loop. 

I've been assuming v!Coco and the elims being okay with Burnt dying to the exe so long as the second elim is shielded by Stone. 

I really like this thought.

*

@The Unknown Medallion the cipher can be solved mentally. I gave the conf vils the easy one. 

c/ping Divergent's argument for Doc-Burnt being unconnected:

Quote

Bringing this up (Postman Messages L1) since it might be relevant to building elim teams.

On Day 3 A, Doc brought up that he had information on which players sent messages, which I believe only he knew that that was part of his role at that point in time since it's not stated anywhere in the mask description.

If we assume Doc is village, then that could mean e!Burnt is not in a team with Hael, Coco, and Doc, since there's no reason really for her to send fake PMs to her fellow elims, since no one was aware that the Postman knew where the messages were going. That would mean her teammates are Mistfallen and TwinStorm, which also doesn't make sense either since she's in a thunderdome with Mistfallen with the Mask of Scents situation.

If we assume Doc is elim, then this is irrelevant and there is a world where knowing that he has such info, that he would send messages to potential fellow elims (Coco, Burnt, Archer) and then reveal that info on D3 to make it look like e!Burnt isn't connected to Hael, Coco, and Doc. At the moment, I find this unlikely since it seemed like this was the only instance where he had mentioned it.

With this info, I think that Doc and Burnt are most likely on the same faction - either both are village or both are elim. And at the moment, I'm leaning toward the possibility they're both village.

I'm trying to rationalize why an e!Burnt would lie about seeing Mistfallen visit Ashbringer, and I feel like it's more of a disadvantage to do so? Mistfallen is in a much better position after D2B, so it would have been a hard sell to make up those results. And for our wincon atm, we win if we win two loops and win the final day. During the final day, we win if we execute an elim and I'm not sure I see the value of an elim putting themselves in a thunderdome and giving us a guaranteed 50% chance of winning on that final day if we reach it. 

A possible motivation would be that they are that confident they could seal the deal and win the game by winning this loop, but I'm finding it unlikely since they have very little room to hide now since all eyes will be on what they do and say throughout this loop.

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Stick. she/her]

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

That was a possibility when Stick raised it yesterday, but now we know they were in competition for Stone, so worsening their odds doesn't make sense. 

If you assume e!Coco, Burnt had to be the one to get Stone, lest they lose the loop. 

I've been assuming v!Coco and the elims being okay with Burnt dying to the exe so long as the second elim is shielded by Stone. 

I really like this thought.

*

@The Unknown Medallion the cipher can be solved mentally. I gave the conf vils the easy one. 

c/ping Divergent's argument for Doc-Burnt being unconnected:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

ty! I dunno, sending PMs to each other means very little in either direction esp when it’s burnt and doc we’re talking about lol 

19 minutes ago, Archer said:

If you assume e!Coco, Burnt had to be the one to get Stone, lest they lose the loop.

agreed, im more just confused why e!doc admits to not even trying to bid for that mask over simply lying and saying he did but failed. Cuz that’s how I’d go about it