Long Game 110? [Sign Ups]: Termina Abandoned (A Majora's Mask Mafia Adventure)

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

If e!Wahr, pool dilution can be done by either alignment's death imo. They will probably mix it up, not only through but we might have to be wary of bussing during the day as well in case we become certain of someone's elimness later. 

Absolutely agreed. If the Village wins the Loop at the end of this cycle, then all dead players, both exes and NKs, come under immediate suspicion. I will say, though, that the exed players should still be under MORE suspicion, because it's an odd play for them to skip the N1A kill only to later turn around and kill one of their own without having first been caught by the exe. The best rationale for that course of action would be that the kill skip was a bluff to make us think they were going for the win, and thus throw suspicion on the exe victims after they later "abandon" the win. But that's an extremely risky play, because they couldn't be certain in advance that those victims wouldn't be elims. Plus there's the issue that Ash is a decidedly odd kill in that world:

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

There is as possibility they would want to kill e!Ash anyway to avoid clearing a bunch of village but we have to see if that's the strategy they are going with. 

That's true, but assuming they decided on that play, can you think of an explanation for why e!Ash specifically would be the elim they decided to kill? To me, it seems that the majority of other players would (assuming they were elims) fill the role better. For example, in a world that's e/e with Archer and Ash, why would they kill Ash and not Archer?

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

There is a thought here that the elims simply did not know there was an elim kill in N1. It is more likely than normal because D1 was no vote and usually there are no kills in games before the voting begins. 

That seems extremely unlikely, as the coming NK was explicitly confirmed in the thread D1A. We'd have to be dealing with an extremely oblivious and inattentive elim team for them to miss that.

 

4 hours ago, Stick. said:

there’s another world where ash is e but wahr isn’t and the elims went through a bit of a philosophy shift last turn. in that world 2 of the 3 remaining elims will hard bus the 3rd today and ride that cred to the win prolly cuz u make the bussed player ur red herring to make e!ash look soft cleared, and the other 2 are disassociated anyway.  

What cred? I think you're forgetting that if we win the cycle, we'll have no idea which dead player(s) were elims. So a bus doesn't work like it does in normal SE; you don't get immediately proven right about your vote. So there's no cred earned; from the outside no one can tell whether your votes helped to win the Loop.

Plus, in that scenario, you still need to come up with an explanation for why Ash specifically was the candidate they chose for the WGG. He's a distinctly suboptimal for soft-cleared elim. Why choose to use this gambit to garner trust for him and not a more influential elim?

 

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Counterpoint, low poster has less to lose in terms of rupees. NKing elims early L1 when they stand to lose the least and get 20 in compensation is good play. Was Ashbringer going to hit 20 this loop? We can put a pin in this until L2. 

...oh. Yeah, that's an angle I hadn't really considered. Okay, so that pulls some of the confidence out of my assessment of Ash, because if they're playing for role power rather than dynamical positioning, he actually is a pretty good choice for WGG. Drat, that was one of my more confident conclusions so far this game.

14 minutes ago, Archer said:

Is Wahr worth defending, now that they know there's a village appetite to exe them? Genuine question. 

I would argue yes, specifically BECAUSE e!Wahr now a serious liability going forward. They'd have a strong motive to pull him out of the fire some to keep him from getting repeatedly exed every Loop and losing them half of their objective for the rest of the game. That said, I don't actually consider this play to be a particularly compelling defense of Wahr, so I'm a little skeptical that that's the motivation. As I said, setting aside social dynamics, it's frankly just optimal play to kill a villager last night, regardless of Wahr's alignment.

[Stick. she/her]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

Is Wahr worth defending, now that they know there's a village appetite to exe them? Genuine question. 

right now or prolly shouldn’t matter - what i think we should do rn is find an elim completely independent of associatives with wahr to cover bases like I explained last night. And if it turns out elims win this loop then debating wahr’s alignment now is a waste of time anyway

 

the ask nk being so on the nose for lack of a better term makes me lean e on wahr BUT we should assume wahr is v for the purposes of the exe today. us having to solve wahrs alignment is only rly relevant if we win this loop as far as i understand it so it’s best to just treat them as v for now and find an elim separately 

 

anyone else secretly e reading tj?  TJ defend urself 

 

edit: oh I completely misunderstood archer’s question - will the elim team risk defending e!wahr? yeah I’d echo wonko’s response and also just that village sentiment can change over time/as we enter newer loops and there’s more smokes and mirrors so they might just assess the situation then etc 

6 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

What cred? I think you're forgetting that if we win the cycle, we'll have no idea which dead player(s) were elims. So a bus doesn't work like it does in normal SE; you don't get immediately proven right about your vote. So there's no cred earned; from the outside no one can tell whether your votes helped to win the Loop.

Plus, in that scenario, you still need to come up with an explanation for why Ash specifically was the candidate they chose for the WGG. He's a distinctly suboptimal for soft-cleared elim. Why choose to use this gambit to garner trust for him and not a more influential elim?

Re:bolded - Oh there are definitely ways u could make that work but it’s best not to spell it out for them hahaha

 

as for the 2nd paragraph, that’s a good point, maybe other more influential elims had a lot more to lose (more money/masks) and it seems like ash hadn’t posted a ton cycle 1 soooo ya idk i do think that scenario isn’t super likely rn

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Ngl i was expecting the elims to do their night kill on n3 instead to minimise how much info we get, but i suppose this is a safer approach for them to take i think? Does mean if they get blocked N3 they would have ticked the numbers off.

Don't greatly know how I feel about this. This could be them making wahr seem evil by responding with the night kill, this could be them bussing their own just to confuse us with wahr being good this could be them just making the numbers add up. 

Currently my main thought is that this will be an interesting day to look back on in loop 2 when we know more clearly what's going on, but in the meantime paying attention to how the narrative is being guided by players is the option we got. And its been a busy day for me so any actual consideration time will need to be a tomorrow job

 

@Mistfallen Soldier sorry, i got minimal pms during the day (yall make me sad. Except for the ones i did. You guys are great) so intended to respond to the few i did get during this day cycle instead, especially with night pms meaning imma need to save more money to pm folks if i want to be messaging at both times. So i didnt send any out last night. Sorry to be unhelpful >.>

[Stick. she/her]

What are people even PMing about & can i get one too 

edit:

coder tj hael these are some of the ppl i feel a bit weird about from vibes and early impressions so let’s explore these 

[Archer he/him]

36 minutes ago, Stick. said:

edit: oh I completely misunderstood archer’s question - will the elim team risk defending e!wahr? yeah I’d echo wonko’s response and also just that village sentiment can change over time/as we enter newer loops and there’s more smokes and mirrors so they might just assess the situation then etc 

By defend I meant dilute the suspect pool with villagers. It's a hard sell to get us to exe the NKed folks before we exe Wahr every time forever. You're almost better to give us one then trust we'll miss our four attempts at hitting in the 15 person pool, assuming E!Wahr doesn't lead to obvious teammates to exe. 

Circling back to Ashbringer, I think they were on track to exceed 20 rupees. Anyone get a PM from him that would have lowered his count? I doubt they'd kill E!him if he got a mask. 

[Stick. she/her]

wait I just realised if we repeatedly exe someone they’ll enter Loop 4 with one hundred rupees so they’ll be able to either  steal the alignment scanner to keep it out of village hands or they’ll take the resurrector to tip the parity scales in their favour 

 

that’s annoying 

Edit

ive asked if exe comes before the shop tho lets see 

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

That's true, but assuming they decided on that play, can you think of an explanation for why e!Ash specifically would be the elim they decided to kill? To me, it seems that the majority of other players would (assuming they were elims) fill the role better. For example, in a world that's e/e with Archer and Ash, why would they kill Ash and not Archer?

My best guess is that Ash volunteered. Perhaps RL reasons might precede and/or if they were finding it difficult to make time for the game, they could have just volunteered to die and then elims play it off as a low-info kill.

ed1t:

2 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

That seems extremely unlikely, as the coming NK was explicitly confirmed in the thread D1A. We'd have to be dealing with an extremely oblivious and inattentive elim team for them to miss that.

Might have missed this on my read-through. 

2 hours ago, Stick. said:

anyone else secretly e reading tj?  TJ defend urself 

put forth your accusations

[Stick. she/her]

i dunno ur posts have kinda felt a bit formulaic and flat this game idk if that’s just bc ur catching up or bc ur evil (and catching up) 

 

also how u framed ur araris read a while ago pinged me a bit 

 

who do u wanna kill today…..

Edit:

also btw the exe comes before mask purchasing in OoA re my concern earlier 

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Stick. said:

:

also btw the exe comes before mask purchasing in OoA re my concern earlier 

So we can just exe them a fourth or fifth time before they get the chance to spend their money. I do like how that mechanic works, kudos to the GM

3 hours ago, |TJ| said:

My best guess is that Ash volunteered. Perhaps RL reasons might precede and/or if they were finding it difficult to make time for the game, they could have just volunteered to die and then elims play it off as a low-info kill.

What's your gut feel on whether he is village or not? 

[Myst He/Him]

Okay, sorry I haven’t been on. Yall are discussing Ash right now, I’ll put my thoughts in a sec

13 hours ago, Divergent said:

Mmm I haven't really reread D2, so that's why I didn't want to make any premature claims before having done that (outside of my thinking that it is unlikely for it to be someone on his wagon)

On the second point, valid, something I experienced when playing the AG was how cumbersome it is to quote posts, so unless I find that I'm unsatisfied with the answer and have additional insight to share or follow up questions, then I wouldn't quote respond to it anymore (most likely I either agree with it or I'm keeping a mental note on it for later)

Alright.. that makes sense. It just seems off when you ask a question, someone answers it, and then you never go back to it. That said, I also usually keep track of everything in my head as well, so I’ll move on for now.

Now, as for my thoughts in Ash. I do agree that exeing a not very active Elim does make sense from a rupee standpoint, but I will say that a E!Ash would mean they decided to lose loop 1. Which doesn’t make sense with the lack of NK n1. Now, it is possible they switched, but doing so gives us more info. I am considering a E!Wahr and E!Ash team though it’s quite a shift in playstyle now from then. And experience does have a role, he was not this self-focused that game. As such, I think what happen is that we exed an Elim, and they Exed another Elim(Ashbringer) in hopes that when we see that we won, we assume only one of the people dead is an Elim, not two.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Mostly just poking in my head to say I’m following along but a bit too busy to write a consolidated post just yet. Main thought is that Wonko is tunneling on Archer, and I still lean toward those two being village. If the elims want to have winning L1 as an option, they likely want to avoid standing out, which those two haven’t done.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Stick. said:

i dunno ur posts have kinda felt a bit formulaic and flat this game idk if that’s just bc ur catching up or bc ur evil (and catching up) 

i don't think i have been formulaic but i have not really gotten the feel of the game yet so I do agreed i feel a bit flat. playing this on a very low bandwidth atm. 

3 hours ago, Stick. said:

who do u wanna kill today…..

no clue yet. i wanna iso divergent and hael, which ill do later. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

What's your gut feel on whether he is village or not? 

leaving aside Wahr and looking purely at Ash, I do believe he was in his Dingo era (AG8 ref to the others: that is to say, I believe he might have been evil).

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

7 hours ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

sorry, i got minimal pms during the day (yall make me sad. Except for the ones i did. You guys are great) so intended to respond to the few i did get during this day cycle instead, especially with night pms meaning imma need to save more money to pm folks if i want to be messaging at both times. So i didnt send any out last night. Sorry to be unhelpful >.>

Sorry, I didn't really have anything worth saying, and I didn't want to drop my rupees on purely social letters. It was nice hearing from you, though!

 

7 hours ago, Stick. said:

What are people even PMing about & can i get one too 

I got two letters, one from Burnt full of cheerful pleasantries, and one from Doc openly fishing for absolutely any secret I might have access too, despite him having praised Hael for advocating PM safety. Which, you know, that's interesting. Based on Mistfallen and Archer's cryptic conversation, I'd assume they've received similar communications. @Doc12, I waited for you to post all Malaysian day, and you were in the thread several times, but didn't say anything. Care to defend this mismatch between publicly praising PM safety and privately asking people to PM you everything but their mothers' maiden names?

 

5 hours ago, |TJ| said:

My best guess is that Ash volunteered. Perhaps RL reasons might precede and/or if they were finding it difficult to make time for the game, they could have just volunteered to die and then elims play it off as a low-info kill.

That's plausible, I suppose. It still rings oddly to me. I much prefer Archer's hypothesis that it was about Ash having less to lose vis-a-vis masks and rupees. In which case, e!Ash would be evidence of a very active and involved elim team.

 

3 hours ago, Stick. said:

also btw the exe comes before mask purchasing in OoA re my concern earlier 

That's useful to know. I had actually been pretty concerned about the 100-rupee masks, this gives us a decent tool to help keep that under control.

 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mostly just poking in my head to say I’m following along but a bit too busy to write a consolidated post just yet. Main thought is that Wonko is tunneling on Archer, and I still lean toward those two being village. If the elims want to have winning L1 as an option, they likely want to avoid standing out, which those two haven’t done.

Yeah? That's interesting, I don't feel tunneled. It's true that Archer remains my ideal pick for exe, but he's not actually more than moderately suspicious to me. I simply have a working model where he's an elim, and confidence that he's still a good target as a misexe. I do have other suspects, as indicated by my vote above.

Edited February 25 by Wonko the Sane

[Doc12]

Oh hi this is fun  

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I got two letters, one from Burnt full of cheerful pleasantries, and one from Doc openly fishing for absolutely any secret I might have access too, despite him having praised Hael for advocating PM safety. Which, you know, that's interesting. Based on Mistfallen and Archer's cryptic conversation, I'd assume they've received similar communications. @Doc12, I waited for you to post all Malaysian day, and you were in the thread several times, but didn't say anything. Care to defend this mismatch between publicly praising PM safety and privately asking people to PM you everything but their mothers' maiden names?

Impressed that you remembered I was Malaysian . You did not remember, however, that I am an unrepentant role fisher and have never once advocated for PM safety  

(Also I am in the US now I just had work and also had stuff after work) 

21 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Okay, so I think we can reasonably say Ashbringer is not Elim. If he is, the Elims are doing a very weird Strat.

Edit: Burnt to None I missed @Archer

Love that you just have your own code now  

20 hours ago, Archer said:

The obvious read is E!Wahr, and they want to dilute the pool. 

I was sorely tempted to send some PMs last night pretending to be other people, but I didn't because I forgot to. It would be really helpful if y'all would sign your names to your letters. 

Doc gets a vote because when I said let's kill Hoid, they said ok but it won't do anything. Why not just say ok sure. You scared to actually make a counter wagon with teeth? 

Couple things here - firstly, voting on Hoid. To quote someone last night, 

"You ever go through a drive through and they tell you the thing you want to order isn't available? And there's cars behind you honking while you make up your mind? So you say 'just give me whatever's popular' but that's got pickles (you hate pickles). Eventually you settle on the fourth most popular option just to get out of there with something "

You offered me to vote with me on someone I wanted to exe, so I did, wondering if that would also trigger Hoid to do something in response /shrug. 

Secondly, the obvious read is e!Wahr after you made a whole post on how his actions make you think v?

Thirdly, I wish you had tried that  I would have known. (you didn't get six)

Edited February 26 by Doc12

[Doc12]

The problem for me personally is that I'm still playing this like a regular game of SE, trying to play socially because I can't predict mechanically. Everyone else is doing that, and I'm just trying to read people and figure out what they're actually saying. All the speculating whether we should try to throw the loop or whether the elims are aiming to throw the loop or pivoting is still going over my head right now, and ties not being random and deaths being flipless is messing with my suspect method more than I bargained for. Can't see why someone might have jumped on or hopped off the Wahr train. Can't draw conclusions from people suggesting counterwagons. 

Reading through today, feel like we're spinning in circles because from my understanding of the game, all this discussion on Ash and Wahr's alignments is kind of moot because there's no point speculating or analyzing those until the loop is over and we see if we won the loop. 

Looking back at who I'm hesitant to exe, I'm keeping Dive, maybe Burnt, and Mistfallen. Courtesy pause still on Hael and Araris. Everyone else is open season. In terms of people I think it would be interesting to exe, one of Archer or Wonko, now that it's D3. In terms of actions that make me feel weird, I feel like TJ and TUM coming on at the end of the day to vote feels performative. 

Mistfallen is communicating with Archer (just Archer, which is kind of weird) in some kind of code they've somehow put together, which seems like a whole lot of effort to go to if they're both e! I can read between the lines and figure out what mask they're claiming, and it's useful, for sure. Interested to see what you find out tonight, so don't want to exe Mistfallen today. @Mistfallen Soldier genuine question why are you only communicating with Archer and not say, Wonko? You sent me a PM last night, didnt' see fit to share a code with me  

[Myst He/Him]

55 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

The problem for me personally is that I'm still playing this like a regular game of SE, trying to play socially because I can't predict mechanically. Everyone else is doing that, and I'm just trying to read people and figure out what they're actually saying. All the speculating whether we should try to throw the loop or whether the elims are aiming to throw the loop or pivoting is still going over my head right now, and ties not being random and deaths being flipless is messing with my suspect method more than I bargained for. Can't see why someone might have jumped on or hopped off the Wahr train. Can't draw conclusions from people suggesting counterwagons. 

Reading through today, feel like we're spinning in circles because from my understanding of the game, all this discussion on Ash and Wahr's alignments is kind of moot because there's no point speculating or analyzing those until the loop is over and we see if we won the loop. 

Looking back at who I'm hesitant to exe, I'm keeping Dive, maybe Burnt, and Mistfallen. Courtesy pause still on Hael and Araris. Everyone else is open season. In terms of people I think it would be interesting to exe, one of Archer or Wonko, now that it's D3. In terms of actions that make me feel weird, I feel like TJ and TUM coming on at the end of the day to vote feels performative. 

Mistfallen is communicating with Archer (just Archer, which is kind of weird) in some kind of code they've somehow put together, which seems like a whole lot of effort to go to if they're both e! I can read between the lines and figure out what mask they're claiming, and it's useful, for sure. Interested to see what you find out tonight, so don't want to exe Mistfallen today. @Mistfallen Soldier genuine question why are you only communicating with Archer and not say, Wonko? You sent me a PM last night, didnt' see fit to share a code with me  

For you I was waiting, you’ll get your actual one tonight. As for everyone else, it’s a matter of trust. Also, I only need to give a code if there’s something I need to hear your feedback on day of. With Archer I needed a response today, rather than when PMs are sent.

Also, yeah, you could see through it, but others couldn’t. Burnt thought it was about me not PMing her. Idk the skill lvl of the Elims, so I’m being cautious 

Also, solving socially is hard in this game, I’m having to to go mechanical. There’s about 2 people I am 99% sure right now aren’t Elims(aside from myself) and one of those I got from logic and Game mechanics. 

[Divergent He/Him]

11 hours ago, Archer said:

Counterpoint, low poster has less to lose in terms of rupees. NKing elims early L1 when they stand to lose the least and get 20 in compensation is good play. Was Ashbringer going to hit 20 this loop? We can put a pin in this until L2. 

Fair point. Although, I do think Ash could have actually hit the target this loop. I haven't been tracking post counts, but I feel like Ash was actually hitting the target on the RP side, it was just the analysis side of the rupee accumulation that he didn't hit, so I'm uncertain if that was really the intention

5 hours ago, Mistfallen Soldier said:

Alright.. that makes sense. It just seems off when you ask a question, someone answers it, and then you never go back to it. That said, I also usually keep track of everything in my head as well, so I’ll move on for now.

So real, I'd be so much more powerful if I wasn't like beefing with the text editor half the time

Anyways, I finally have the time to review the previous day. I think I'm going to try leaning more into the social side of solving because I feel like I'm struggling a bit with the mechanical side due to the flipless nature of the game and how we're really going to be working mostly with assumptions and theoreticals until we get some more real information once the next loop comes around

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Well, gang

What’s going on these days?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

If we could solve the game mechanically then we’d just auto-win, right? We can’t ignore getting reads on folks.

I also think there is relatively low value in speculating about the alignments of the dead folks until post-L1. That’s not to say it’s useless, but if anyone’s not sure then just din’t worry about it right now. Pretend it’s D1 again (this is my general advice to anyone who gets stuck in a game of SE).

I’m going to drop a vote on Mistfallen for now. I’m still a bit behind on my reads but I’m currently operating on the assumption that the elims are trying to win the loop, and thus that they are exerting some level of thread control. Since folks come back, I think this is an excellent opportunity to execute someone a bit more outspoken that we might be reluctant to kill in a normal SE game. If we’re wrong, we get to potentially clear a villager that is actively helping out, and they get to jump back in the game for L2.

I know there’s not a lot to respond/react to with this vote but I’ll work on that part later.

[Myst He/Him]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If we could solve the game mechanically then we’d just auto-win, right? We can’t ignore getting reads on folks.

I also think there is relatively low value in speculating about the alignments of the dead folks until post-L1. That’s not to say it’s useless, but if anyone’s not sure then just din’t worry about it right now. Pretend it’s D1 again (this is my general advice to anyone who gets stuck in a game of SE).

I’m going to drop a vote on Mistfallen for now. I’m still a bit behind on my reads but I’m currently operating on the assumption that the elims are trying to win the loop, and thus that they are exerting some level of thread control. Since folks come back, I think this is an excellent opportunity to execute someone a bit more outspoken that we might be reluctant to kill in a normal SE game. If we’re wrong, we get to potentially clear a villager that is actively helping out, and they get to jump back in the game for L2.

I know there’s not a lot to respond/react to with this vote but I’ll work on that part later.

I’d prefer not to be exed today, but it’s alright if I do. As for getting cleared, that entirety depends on Ash and Wahr being Village, which I don’t think is the case. That said, I believe we’ve gotten a Elim, so I’m alright with being voted out if you need to exe someone outspoken.

I don’t believe I’ve actually voted yet, so I’m gonna go analyze and I’ll be back later

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Impressed that you remembered I was Malaysian . You did not remember, however, that I am an unrepentant role fisher and have never once advocated for PM safety  

I used to coordinate Movie Night, remember? I paid close attention to EVERYBODY's time zones.

Okay... I'll accept that, tentatively. I did actually do a quick search through our past PMs, and you seemed distinctly more circumspect and less fisher-y in them. Though I'll grand that time has passed, so you may have subtly changed since then. I will admit that you did share more freely than most people, and ask questions more openly; It was just never quite so brazen as "Hi nice to meet you what's your role and who did you target?"

When I said you praised PM safety advocacy, I was referring the fact that earlier in the game, you gave Hael a village read based on his early call forit. I'll accept that you don't personally advocate for it, though, you just see it as Village behavior.

That said, my vote will stand and continue to create a dynamic and imbalanced vote state until a more interesting candidate arises. I'm perfectly happy with exeing you and I'd rather continue being a part of the pressure than sit on the sidelines.

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

(Also I am in the US now I just had work and also had stuff after work) 

Ah, that makes sense. I was assuming you'd had a full daytime and evening since the Day started. Carry on, then.

 

48 minutes ago, Divergent said:

So real, I'd be so much more powerful if I wasn't like beefing with the text editor half the time

Are you on mobile? Because I find that quotes are WAY more friendly on desktop.

 

25 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If we could solve the game mechanically then we’d just auto-win, right? We can’t ignore getting reads on folks.

Have you met me? Finding loopholes that let me auto-win without having to parse human behavior is kind of my thing.  But in all seriousness, I think that there's far more to be gained from a mechanical approach here than everyone else seems to be saying. As an example, my mech analysis D1A is why we had a solid theory as to why the N1A kill was skipped. Behavior flows from incentives, and incentives are defined by the mechanics. You can get a lot out of solving mechanically, thinking about the implications of the mechanics for peoples' motivations.

31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m going to drop a vote on Mistfallen for now. I’m still a bit behind on my reads but I’m currently operating on the assumption that the elims are trying to win the loop, and thus that they are exerting some level of thread control. Since folks come back, I think this is an excellent opportunity to execute someone a bit more outspoken that we might be reluctant to kill in a normal SE game. If we’re wrong, we get to potentially clear a villager that is actively helping out, and they get to jump back in the game for L2.

I'd rather you find a different outspoken player if possible. I don't particularly trust Mistfallen, but if they really do have the mask they're claiming, it's worth letting them have another night to use it to the fullest. Frankly I'm in agreement that an elim is probably already dead, on balance. Given that, the elims are likely to kill again tonight, and I'd like the best possible chances to figure things out about it. Heck, at this stage I'd say we're almost trying to vote for a Villager, because that'd give us either a confirmed village trust circle, or a narrower pool of suspect to find elim(s) among the dead.

[Myst He/Him]

5 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I got two letters, one from Burnt full of cheerful pleasantries, and one from Doc openly fishing for absolutely any secret I might have access too, despite him having praised Hael for advocating PM safety. Which, you know, that's interesting. Based on Mistfallen and Archer's cryptic conversation, I'd assume they've received similar communications. @Doc12, I waited for you to post all Malaysian day, and you were in the thread several times, but didn't say anything. Care to defend this mismatch between publicly praising PM safety and privately asking people to PM you everything but their mothers' maiden names?

Did you get Doc’s PM today? Or last Night(yes, this is important, it determines whether I trust him or not)

[Divergent He/Him]

I've reread D2 and I found a number of behavior to be suspicious upon a reread

- On Wahr, going back, I don't find him as suspicious on an individual level. I think Archer put it well, that his behavior makes sense from a player focused on personal success and it more looked like he was a villager trying to do anything to ensure that he would live. I still maintain the associative with Archer though, in that if Wahr is elim, then Archer is elim too, especially with the odd attempt to self-pres on Mistfallen rather than on Archer

- On Ash, I am finding it suspicious that Ash seemed to know more than their activity suggests. Unlike the other people with lower activity, Ash came up with a rather detailed answer to Wonko's question of "at what point in time did the elims make the choice to skip the NK?" and also had the awareness that ties are broken on lowest Rupees (which some of the more active players like Doc weren't aware of). It seemed like Ash had that information from an outside source, like the elim doc. Also, Ash had this explanation reasoning out how many villagers the elims needs to kill, which prompted Aman to clarify that elims cannot win if every kill is blocked or withheld. If Ash is elim, that could explain the lack of an N1 kill, where they mistakenly assumed that they didn't need to kill anyone to win the loop.

- On Coder, I'm flip-flopping on whether the self-awareness that he might be repeating what has already been said is suspicious. I wasn't a fan of the unvote though and it seemed like he's been avoiding taking any position on people, so I'd like to hear more on that

- On Hael, I wasn't a fan either of his close-to-rollover content where it was more general mechanical discussion and he didn't really have any comment on what he thought about the other players. It came across as CWAC (contributing without actually contributing) and I believe he hasn't given any reads until now

- On TJ, I found it iffy how his reads that day were just anchored on agreeing/disagreeing with Archer's reads and it came across as oddly convenient that his vote ended up on the leading wagon. I'd like to see more independent reads that are more explained

- On Araris, I found it also iffy that his vote was on Wahr because of a misunderstanding (that he thought Wahr was shading him when he actually was describing Archer's unexplained vote hopping). And then when that was cleared up, he was satisfied to just park his vote there for the rest of the day.

- On Doc, I'm just slightly concerned about being pocketed here, mostly because reading his readslist, I'm uncertain if it really matches the strength of his village read on me (as he mentions me first on being hesitant to exe)

- On Hoid, I'm not into the posting where he's not really trying to progress the game. But oddly enough, I'm feeling like he's village because I think that e!Hoid, even with inactivity, is far more competitive that he wouldn't be able to resist trying to influence things

- On TUO, adding to the potential third wagon in Mistfallen on D2 was a little suspicious. The world where he's elim mostly works if he's tied to Wahr and Archer, where they tried to throw stuff to save both of them. Other than that, I'm feeling more neutral on him and I need more thoughts (outside of saying where he is in terms of catching up)

At the moment, I'm inclined to vote Haelbarde. There's been a lot of focus on the mechanical solving from several players, but most of them have been also trying to offer their thoughts on other players' behaviors. Initially, I had a village lean on him for his suggestion of being cautious about telling anyone what they're doing with their rupees, but it has been a continued trend that his contributions lie more on generalistic suggestions and it is something an elim could offer without really showing where they stand

53 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Are you on mobile? Because I find that quotes are WAY more friendly on desktop.

Yup!! I post on phone and read content on an IPad. Don't currently have the funds to get a laptop to replace the previous one that I had (which can no longer be charged), so it's a bit of a struggle lol (especially that I sometimes to have to refresh the page if a button or two isn't working, or if a post gets eaten before I can post it)

[Araris Valerian he/him]

45 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Have you met me? Finding loopholes that let me auto-win without having to parse human behavior is kind of my thing.  But in all seriousness, I think that there's far more to be gained from a mechanical approach here than everyone else seems to be saying. As an example, my mech analysis D1A is why we had a solid theory as to why the N1A kill was skipped. Behavior flows from incentives, and incentives are defined by the mechanics. You can get a lot out of solving mechanically, thinking about the implications of the mechanics for peoples' motivations.

Yeah, but it takes a few minutes looking at the rules and a single sentence to say that the elims can skip 2 kills and still win L1 while only clearing 3 villagers. I don't want to downplay the value of pointing things like that out for folks that didn't read through the rules, but after 2-3 posts the mechanics are done being discussed and we have the other 95% of the day to spend.

If you include trying to guess the motivation/strategy of the elims under mechanical analysis then that can get you a bit further, but at that point you are in the realm of trying to guess which players have posts/activity levels that match with the proposed strategy and we're really just in the normal realm of solving at that point.

Good point about Mistfallen's mask.

I'm honestly a bit tempted to vote for Archer despite my previous posts. But why don't we exe someone who voted on Wahr? It was a 5-person train, so it likely includes at least one elim. I honestly don't mind getting exed too much since I haven't been keeping up with RP very well. Of the remaining players, if we exclude Mistfallen, that leaves coco, TJ, and Divergent. I'm wanting to avoid TJ since he was inactive D1, which I don't think fits very well with the skipped kill. I'm a fan of Divergent's post just now. Having lots of suspicions is easier to do as a villager than an elim I think. So I'll vote coco for now.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just under 22 Hours Remain in the Day

• (2) Doc: Archer, Wonko, 
• (1) TJ: Stick, 
• (1) Haelbarde: Divergent, 
• (1) coco: Araris, 

---

Ap the Apprentice

The path to Woodfall was not built for fifty people.

It was built for Deku Scrubs — creatures half the height of a human and a third the weight, comfortable with lily pads that dipped and log bridges that swayed. The monkeys knew alternative routes, higher ones through the canopy, and they used them, scouting ahead in silence while the main group worked its way along the water's edge one careful step at a time.

Ap went where the Deku Scouts went. She was the right size for it now, or had been before the mask, and she had the right instincts — her grandfather's shop sat above a flooded subsection of South Ward, and she'd spent enough childhood hours on its window ledge to know how to read the weight of a surface before she trusted it. She crossed three lily pad sections without incident and tried not to think about the fact that they'd been slightly easier when she was made of wood.

The conversation started, as most conversations do on long walks, because the alternative was silence and silence left room for the moon.

"In the version I learned," said one of the older Clock Wards, "he came from another time. A future Termina, after everything had already gone wrong. He came back to stop it."

"That's doesn't make sense," said the woman ahead of him. "He came from the past. Before Termina was Termina. Before anyone here could have known him. Otherwise, like us, he'd be dead."

"Neither interpretation is supported by anything he actually said," Kashika called from further back. She was picking her way across a log bridge with the focused care of someone who spent most of her time on solid floors. "He followed the Skull Kid into the forest and fell into a hole. What came before that — he never told anyone who wrote it down, or if he did, nothing survived." A pause as she tested the next plank. "The time theories are popular because they're tidy. They mean his arrival here had a reason we can understand. But I've never seen evidence that rules out something stranger."

"Stranger how?" someone asked.

"Multiple realities. Parallel worlds branching from decisions made or not made. He could have come from a Termina that exists alongside ours rather than before or after it." She made it across. "It's not a comfortable thought. But the truth rarely is."

The older man made a sound that suggested he found parallel realities faintly offensive.

"Does it matter?" Ishala said. She had already crossed and was waiting on the far bank with the patience of someone who had stopped expecting theoretical discussions to resolve quickly.

"To the history, yes. To this morning—" Kashika looked ahead at the treeline. "No."

Ap had read three different books about the Hero of Time, had seen the Carnival play every year of her life, and heard her grandfather's version more times than she could count, which was the one she trusted most but also the one that left the most out. The books disagreed about his age, his origin, what the mask had wanted from him and what he'd given it. They agreed on the broad shape: the three days, the four temples, the giants, the moon. The Dreamers had their own version, she supposed — she thought about the branded wrists and the fused masks and the nihilism of people who had looked at the same story and found permission to give up. Same facts. Completely different conclusion.

"He went in alone," she said. She was still getting used to her voice being just her voice again, no Deku harmonics underneath it.

"He did most things alone," said Professor Kashika, watching the girl intently.

"Fortunately, we won't," added Ishala, looking ahead to where the trees were thinning and the light changed — opening up, the swamp giving way to the wider water of Woodfall proper, the stone structure of the temple visible above the treeline. "So we have that over him."

No one argued with that.

---

Three monkeys were waiting at the causeway.

They dropped from the canopy as the group approached the ceremonial platform, landing in a row on the log railing with the coordinated drama of creatures who had been waiting to deliver a report and wanted to make an impression.

They spoke quickly. Kashika listened, her head slightly tilted, and translated without embellishment.

"The Dreamers arrived before dawn. Twelve of them, robed, moving in single file." She watched the monkeys as they continued. "They had the song. The Sonata of Awakening — they played it at this platform and the temple opened for them." Her expression didn't change, but something behind it did. "They went in. The temple sealed behind them. None have come out."

The group looked at the temple. It sat on its stone foundation above the water, silent, moss-covered, the entrance sealed again as if nothing had disturbed it.

"They sealed it from inside?" Ishala asked.

"Or the temple sealed itself when they stopped being outside it. The mechanism isn't fully understood." Kashika was already writing. "Twelve Dreamers. With the song. Inside, with the Queen, and whatever they intend to do with her." She closed the notebook. "We have the song too."

The ceremonial platform sat at the center of the open water, ringed by lily pads, accessible by the narrow causeway the monkeys had kept clear. The altar stone at its center was carved with the Deku Kingdom's flowering emblem, worn smooth where generations of feet had stood. Ap was ushered onto it and looked at the temple — stone and moss and the stillness of a place that had been sleeping for thirty-three years and had been woken twice in one morning.

"Play it the way the plays taught you," Kashika said, from the causeway's edge. "The temple should respond."

Ap had heard the Sonata every year at the Carnival, played by the actor-hero at the moment when the stage crew sent colored smoke billowing from the boards and the crowd cheered as if surprised. She knew it the way she knew the Clock Town anthem — from repetition, from the air of a city that had been absorbing this story for three decades. She raised the pale ocarina and played it straight through without stopping, the same way Kashika had told her to play the Song of Healing: all the way to the end, even if it felt wrong, especially if it felt wrong.

It didn't feel wrong.

The water responded — a deep shudder felt through the feet, and the foundation rising from below the surface, stone dripping, the sealed entrance lifting above the waterline, the great wooden doors swinging open on the dark beyond.

The group was quiet.

"Right," Ishala said. "Let's move."

---

The entrance hall smelled of standing water and old stone and something under both — older, organic, the smell of a place where something very large had lived for a long time and stopped. The torches were unlit. The Deku Scouts worked their way around the perimeter with small flame-starters while the group assembled in the dark, and the light came up slowly, revealing the central chamber: stone platforms rising from poisoned water, Deku flowers at intervals, the high vaulted ceiling lost in shadow above.

The Dreamers had left traces. Ash marks on the stone where something had been drawn and then scuffed partially away. A length of cream-colored robe caught on a platform edge, torn loose in passing. The smell of something burned that was not torch smoke.

And at the center, on the mechanical flower platform — the Dinolfos.

It was not where it was supposed to be. Every account, every academic reconstruction, every retelling of what Link had found in this temple put the Dinolfos in a specific chamber deeper in the dungeon. This one was here, in the entry chamber, standing on the platform with a stillness that animals didn't usually have. Upright. Waiting. Its hands were not empty.

The Hero's Bow.

"That's not supposed to be there," someone said.

"No," Kashika agreed. She was already thinking — Ap knew the quality of it by now. "The Dreamers repositioned it. It's guarding the eye switch." She looked across the chamber at the golden switch on the far wall. "The bow activates that switch, which raises the platform, which opens the upper floor. While the Dinolfos has it, we can't raise the platform. Which means we can't reach the Gekko, and without the Gekko we don't get the Giant Key, and without the Giant Key—" She stopped. " In the story he fought for the bow. Here the bow fights back."

Ishala had her sword out. The fighters in the group had shifted into the arrangement people make when they are about to go forward rather than sideways.

"The Dinolfos is the first problem," Kashika said. "Taking it down gets us the bow. The bow raises the platform and gets the second group to the Gekko and the Giant Key." She turned. "I need everyone who's better at thinking than fighting on the west walkway with me. The water mechanism runs parallel to the combat path — we can work it simultaneously." She looked at Ishala. "Your call on the split."

The Dinolfos hadn't moved. It stood with the bow held loosely, watching the entrance with amber eyes. The torchlight caught the bow's curve — old wood, old string, a weapon carried through this temple once before by someone who'd used it to save everyone and everything.

Ap looked at it. She thought about the moon tear ocarina, the Deku mask, and what Kashika had said in the workroom, when she didn't think Ap could hear: it knows who it belongs to. She thought about the Dreamers, twelve of them, somewhere above her in this temple right now, doing whatever they had crossed a burning city and a poisoned swamp and a kidnapped queen to do.

Stories don't just happen to you, Ap reminded herself, quoting her grandfather. You must choose them.

Edited February 26 by Amanuensis