Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

Ash

Edited to add:

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Ookla the Destined if we exe the SK today will their kill still go through?

@Ookla the Destined re-amplifying

I'm guessing the answer is yes because since when does the damn Village get a break

Edited to add 2:

9 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

I do currently think that Aeo is village, but I'm currently judging Aeo on Illwei criteria, which may or may not be a problem. the general motivation though- constant posting, thoughts that feel real, and general excitement when they appear to go down a rabbit hole is all a good sign.

Of all people, I honestly think you are probably best placed to read Aeo right now. This isn't a comment about:

7 hours ago, Ooklil the Wei said:

Also don't understand anyone's response to my comment about aeo reminding me of me

But just the fact you're PHing in with a fresh set of eyes. I think three cycles of Aeo swinging on a Targaryen coin between high-octane chaos and solving just isn't helpful for anyone with regard to being able to read her (cf. @Amanuensis .)

Edited to add 3:

@Amanuensis / @Ookla the Bald

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Like...what's the point of that entire post as analysis? I've colour-coded it: pinkish is Araris sus, mint is Aeo sus, orange is both, please don't take them as my thoughts on their alignment, I'm tired and just wanted colours that didn't look like hell on the colour-picker.

I guess to sharpen my point about why i keep returning to that post: it feels like a mix of pointless and an already-made up mind. Araris should be self-presing regardless of his alignment. Half the vote statements there aren't adding anything concrete in terms of analysis - I recognise this is harsh, but there's a reason I also file my vote trackers as RAW because I recognise they're more me working things out.

Suppose we accept that this is Coffee's working - well, what does this show? Overwhelmingly, it makes an Aeo sus case. So why is the conclusion E!Araris, therefore vote Araris? [Edit: Sorry - E!Aeo, therefore vote Araris.]

I don't feel the reasoning process here really makes sense. I guess I was too tired/done last cycle to really nail down what about it bothered me, but I've laid it out now. At no point I think have we heard reasons why for Araris is suspicious, apart from that mention from self-pres. It doesn't mean that Araris isn't sus but it does mean Coffee's Araris push is as baseless as he accuses other votes of being. (Like, what's the point of that long chain of noting votes? Feels like it's there to pad and look constructive rather than actually being constructive. Subtracting that away, the analysis is fine but very firmly indicative of E!Aeo, which makes E!Araris just feel like a predetermined conclusion.)

Why am I not voting Coffee? Two factors.

1. What I said about Ash. If E, I think Ash is simply never going to post unless given crucial incentive to do so. To some extent, I agree RL is NAI. He's mentioned briefly in past cycles about hoping to pop up if he's up for the exe. Every single cycle, we are giving him more time, only to get another promissary note. At this point, I just want to either flip him or actually see if he only is responsive to exe pressure.

2. I'm considering if I'm too fast to move off JNV but I do want to hear from JNV. Could still go back to them ig but 5-train? If we're at 6/3/1, are all Villagers really on JNV? (Araris???)

3. What I'm struggling to determine is whether I'm Creccio-ing Coffee tbh. I can see defeaters for the Araris push [Edit: ...Aman push I'm just gonna go to sleep again soddit] but I'm concerned that I'm essentially thinking Coffee for being Evil because his reasoning process is nonsense on stilts, which....yeah. I guess I could be okay with a Coffee vote depending but want your takes.

Edited to add 4: 

TKN: I could see Coffee as an Aeo partner on further thought, but I think that Coffee's Araris push does not quite feel like distancing - Coffee could've shifted at D2 EoD and moreover, it's weird to distance by voting on Araris with a post that functionally says nothing about Araris. But I don't feel strongly about this.

Edited to add 5:

Also TKN: Right, lost the thought. Sorry. What I was meaning to add is that I slightly feel like E!Coffee would be more aware of the actual Araris voters, cf. their assumption I was voting on Araris at that time, but I don't feel very strongly about this.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hey @Kasimir... 

I think you fail to remember that my thought process is ALWAYS nonsense on stilts, a bit drunk on gut feeling and with a healthy side of paranoia. 

I think I see what you are saying about Araris not being the best vote right now, since my thought process leads to Aeoryi instead. 

 

But honestly I don't know who to vote instead, Ash and JNV feel like extremely low info targets, but at this point who else do we go for? I think there is something to be said for exing Aeoryi or even Araris as I feel that their alignment is a reaaally important piece of the puzzle. 

For now though, Araris

Who should we be voting? I just don't think I'm gonna get much out of the JNV lynch, but I also understand you don't want to deal with multiple possible sleeping elims at lylo

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

Hey @Kasimir... 

I think you fail to remember that my thought process is ALWAYS nonsense on stilts, a bit drunk on gut feeling and with a healthy side of paranoia. 

To be honest you are so different now I am just doing as you suggested and regarding you as a new player who has played some forum mafia before! But I'll be honest that my gut just doesn't feel right about the "weird reasoning = Elim" inference here so I'm asking others to weigh in. 

Wrt the Aeo and Araris issue — yeah. I just feel the Araris problem is who the team is meaning we are dealing with the low activity band and I'm confused enough about Araris IDK whether to press him. Aeo is the D1 but I admit 90% of my restraint also comes from having MLed her in three games so that might be unduly influencing me.

Araris asked you this and I still want to know why you think E!Araris? Maybe something I'm missing.

@Winnie the Pookla Why Cash again? You theorised that Cash was focused on you and Wiz but as Cash pointed out, he'd never even mentioned you. Did that not affect your view of Cash? I'm curious because I don't feel that vote had much behind it other than being self-pres.

JNV feels E on the basis of analysis but I'm doubting because they're so inactive it seems hard to say plus 5train.

FWIW as Araris noted, I try not to lock down until rollover and am open to being persuaded until then.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

Wait actually @Amanuensis why I am Elim to you

TBH after finally getting a decent nights sleep (and finally having a day off today, which is a huge lift on my spirits), I’m more open to accepting V!you. But to explain what raised my hackles earlier this cycle:

• I’m not a fan of preflipping in general, especially preflipping players as red with minimal evidence and this close to exlo. So when you preflipped Araris red and used it to vote Coffee, I got the impression of you trying to get us to kill a LHF Villager instead of Araris, which regardless of his alignment, would put the village in a precarious position. I couldn’t see the logic of Village Aeo going for someone who only participated in an exe once, and an exe of someone you believe to be elim, rather than the elim you believe we nearly exed. Ultimately it’s your (possibly exaggerated) insistence / confidence in things I myself am not confident of.
• Every time you mention my Lurcher claim in comparison to yours gave me weird vibes. Felt like you were trying to interfere in my IKYK games in a way that genuinely suggests TMI. This cycle you said something along the lines of “How do you do it” and to me it felt like a cheeky “My team isn’t buying it but we are avoiding you for now.” Basically asking a question you already knew the answer to for content.
• While I love to joke around and troll as much as the next guy, fundamentally I think there’s a difference between controlled chaos (where everything has an explicit or implicit purpose) versus chaos for the sake of chaos. The latter is very punishing for the village, most especially if you yourself are village, and ultimately protects the real elims (if you’re not one) by distracting the rest of us with unnecessary noise / doubt.

The most important thing I think any Villager can do is prove they are village. Not by defending themselves, as Kas has said before, but by putting in the genuine work. The fact that your first move after the Aeo train developed was to create a lot of worlds in which I’m elim didn’t boost my confidence for v!you either. The last thing we need right now is people to get overly paranoid about me and cost the village a win

@Kasimir what if we vote Ash today and formally request the SK to kill JNV, or vice versa? Theoretically the SK needs to hit red today or there’s a huge chance of them losing

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@Kasimir what if we vote Ash today and formally request the SK to kill JNV, or vice versa? Theoretically the SK needs to hit red today or there’s a huge chance of them losing

Sigh.

Honestly, I don't know I trust my own judgement anymore. I'd like to vote the player I think is most likely to be red since I don't wanna rely on a bailout from the SK, and DK if the SK is gonna or not.

I recognise I am frustration voting Ash or protest voting Ash but part of me feels that Ash is being so unhelpful I can't bring myself to believe V!Ash wouldn't even offer an iota of help - it's SCDC (Same Crem Different Cycle.) I recognise pressure voting Ash probably won't change the situation rn, but yeah. I'm also uncomfortable with the sudden 5train on JNV and I'm uncomfortable that JNV hasn't said anything despite being on.

I am alright with V!you, not sure about Neil anymore, alright with V!Illwei (weakly so for reasons mostly due to contrast with her previous E game IMO), think Illwei of all players is most likely to be able to read Snow, and so I'm fine with V!Snow here (also the D1 EoD, which I keep going back to, and the long conversation we had.)

I am:

• Not a fan of Araris's lack of interest in solving - Cash vote felt lazy
• JNV case I've made, though I doubt myself
• Lean V on Coffee but really don't know anymore if I'm tripping or not wrt the posts I'm sharing
• I sort of like TKN's posts but IDK if I'm just giving him too quick a pass, which is why I'm curious about how Illwei and you feel about him.
• Again, a bit incredulous that Ash can make the effort to let us know he's alive but not do anything at all. Probably technically NAI but maybe frustration is making me E lean it.

So I guess my pool rn is in <Neil, JNV, Coffee*, Ash, Araris>

And yeah again, I think JNV is alright, really, as a shot, but...

Sigh. 5train? With no resistance? Not a peep from JNV despite their being on?

Oh and with E!Araris, kills feel weird ig. But not strongly on this.

I should really vote someone else not Ash. I'm just...yeah.

Edited to add:

24 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH after finally getting a decent nights sleep (and finally having a day off today, which is a huge lift on my spirits), I’m more open to accepting V!you. But to explain what raised my hackles earlier this cycle:

Glad to hear ThreadPMBro! Honestly at the opposite from you unfortunately: tired, feel I'm not thinking straight, and waiting on painkillers, so worried I'm just no longer making sense.

Edited to add 2:

Please ignore the Snow I meant Aeo I'm tired.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I should really vote someone else not Ash. I'm just...yeah.

I see no harm in competing wagons Ash

I’m currently undecided on TKN. At the moment I think the only thing that could convince me he’s village is him helping us exe an elim, and even then, I’d have to consider the possibility of a bus, especially after I say this

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m currently undecided on TKN. At the moment I think the only thing that could convince me he’s village is him helping us exe an elim, and even then, I’d have to consider the possibility of a bus, especially after I say this

Care to elaborate?

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis - Curious about your thoughts on Coffee given potential preflipping there wrt Araris vote. Recognise I'm still on V!Coffee but want to hear other takes since you don't really agree.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Care to elaborate?

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis - Curious about your thoughts on Coffee given potential preflipping there wrt Araris vote. Recognise I'm still on V!Coffee but want to hear other takes since you don't really agree.

On TKN? There's not enough to elaborate on, in my view. He's just as here as the rest of them to me atm, which isn't a lot. I need more than a few conciliatory posts or for a post that especially rings Villager bells.

Coffee is among my exe options, but I don't see them as a productive exe today, given a red flip on her doesn't really incriminate anyone specifically. Ideally I want the person we exe today to set us up for the most success going forward, regardless of their alignment. Sadly like... that's no one, given most of my PoE is just "Alive and not overtly village."

Possible that I'm being pessimistic here, but I really don't know. I have zero confidence in anyone's flip being one or the other

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Coffee is among my exe options, but I don't see them as a productive exe today, given a red flip on her doesn't really incriminate anyone specifically. Ideally I want the person we exe today to set us up for the most success going forward, regardless of their alignment. Sadly like... that's no one, given most of my PoE is just "Alive and not overtly village."

Do we have a more productive exe?

I think even working with last night/morning Kas's credences for at most one in <Neil, Araris>, and maximum 3 in 4pool+ <Ash, TKN, JNV, AlphWei, Coffee>, there's little enough to go off in this case. I hate to say this but rampant inactivity from a full 25% of the game has just really screwed us this way.

My problem with flipping Araris even if I think he could be E is just that by this criteria - we're back staring at 4pool+, with most of the late swings looking Village to me, so where are the Elims? (I know we've asked this and I'm rehashing it. But I feel like this is the statement of the problem.)

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

The last thing we need right now is people to get overly paranoid about me and cost the village a win

I'll be candid that I've reserved some E!you possibilities at the back of my head, but pretty sure you're that way about me too. Bottom line for me in terms of my instincts as a player is that my foremost priority is always trying to prevent too much paranoia for Village-on-Village violence/self-cannibalism. If we're looking at a QF64 situation, then we're kinda gonna lose if we follow that playbook. Of course, the problem is it might not be a QF64 situation.

[JNV]

Hi I had a post half written last night and I fell asleep in the middle of writing it and when I clicked the see  new repliees thing this morning it got eaten by the Shard demons so sadness I guess so Ill just summarie anyway when lookin gback over things I kinda noticed Im not getting bad vibes on Novel which is weird in hindsight even if I kinda didnt notice earlier I blame finals brain causel ike every time I play with Novel I get bad vibes even when we were evil together that one time so like who knows but everythings kinda a ball of mush in my brain I trust Kas I trust Aman Im letting Aeoryi off the hook like I wouldnt be surprised if they turn out to be SK but Im closing the book on them sorta thing honestly the state of my brain is I want everyone dead except me which isnt a great state to be in so like if I look at everyone left who isnt being let go its Novel Araris Labyrillwei Coffee Neil Ash if I buy Kass Araris analysis then either world points to a certain pool and theres Ash Dingo meta arguments and my brains fried so Ill just park there and try another reread round Ash Aeoryi but I dont know Im half tempted to just vote Novel but thats not serious and Labyrillweis shown up now and can probably be read 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi I had a post half written last night and I fell asleep in the middle of writing it and when I clicked the see  new repliees thing this morning it got eaten by the Shard demons so sadness I guess so Ill just summarie anyway when lookin gback over things I kinda noticed Im not getting bad vibes on Novel which is weird in hindsight even if I kinda didnt notice earlier I blame finals brain causel ike every time I play with Novel I get bad vibes even when we were evil together that one time so like who knows but everythings kinda a ball of mush in my brain I trust Kas I trust Aman Im letting Aeoryi off the hook like I wouldnt be surprised if they turn out to be SK but Im closing the book on them sorta thing honestly the state of my brain is I want everyone dead except me which isnt a great state to be in so like if I look at everyone left who isnt being let go its Novel Araris Labyrillwei Coffee Neil Ash if I buy Kass Araris analysis then either world points to a certain pool and theres Ash Dingo meta arguments and my brains fried so Ill just park there and try another reread round Ash Aeoryi but I dont know Im half tempted to just vote Novel but thats not serious and Labyrillweis shown up now and can probably be read 

Noooot gonna lieeeeeee

This makes me wanna go back to Quokka Buddy and I don't know whyyyyy

[Amanuensis he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Noooot gonna lieeeeeee

This makes me wanna go back to Quokka Buddy and I don't know whyyyyy

For me it's this line:

28 minutes ago, JNV said:

honestly the state of my brain is I want everyone dead except me

Can relate

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

For me it's this line:

Can relate

Tbh I can't relate this time, I just want myself dead so this can be someone else's problem

I just wanna munch on nachos in the dead doc, crack a cold one, and watch as Village does the thing.

But y'know, duty calls. So long as my watch has not ended, I continue to question everything. And doubt. And revise my reads a kazillion times because what the f is forum mafia even anymore

Edited to add: @Amanuensis - To be clear, I mean vote, not go back to V leaning.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

39 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tbh I can't relate this time, I just want myself dead so this can be someone else's problem

I just wanna munch on nachos in the dead doc, crack a cold one, and watch as Village does the thing.

But y'know, duty calls. So long as my watch has not ended, I continue to question everything. And doubt. And revise my reads a kazillion times because what the f is forum mafia even anymore

Edited to add: @Amanuensis - To be clear, I mean vote, not go back to V leaning.

Oh IC. Well that's fair too.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh IC. Well that's fair too.

I think/guess it feels rushed. Like 'here lemme say something so I can CW hunt.' I don't know bro. Maybe I'm kayana. I don't understand this game anymore I'm flipflopping on JNV more than prata. My gut keeps screaming something isn't right and my head says that I'm crazy and this is JNV's V!meta but it doesn't feel right

[Amanuensis he/him]

I do think e!JNV would explain why we are both alive, regardless of my Brandon claim and insistence that I will protect you. I think the problem with this cycle is we've probably hit the bottom of the analysis well, leaving us with either repeating our points ad naseam or excessively trying to reinvent the wheel and reconsider our reads. At a certain point we just kinda need to commit I think, and JNV/Ash seems like one of the safest bets. This will leave us with mostly active players going forward too, which is frankly our only shot at a victory 

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I do think e!JNV would explain why we are both alive, regardless of my Brandon claim and insistence that I will protect you. I think the problem with this cycle is we've probably hit the bottom of the analysis well, leaving us with either repeating our points ad naseam or excessively trying to reinvent the wheel and reconsider our reads. At a certain point we just kinda need to commit I think, and JNV/Ash seems like one of the safest bets. This will leave us with mostly active players going forward too, which is frankly our only shot at a victory 

Thanks Aman.

I needed that. My brain is just seeing the wall and hoping that if I beat myself against it, something else will come out of it, or that there's something I'm not doing or not taking into account. Part of me just doesn't want to be badly wrong and to damn Quokka Buddy here and it's a massive wall of nope in my head  

[Amanuensis he/him]

Worst case scenario, is it the end of the world if we ML today? Let’s crunch the numbers.

No Red Hits:

• C3: 6V 3E 1N
• C4: 3V 3E 1N
• C5: 1V 3E 1N, E Wins

1 Red Hit Today and No More:

• C3: 6V 3E 1N
• C4: 4V 2E 1N
• C5: 2V 2E 1N
• C6: 0V 2E 1N, E Wins

2 Red Hits Today and No More:

• C3: 6V 3E 1N
• C4: 5V 1E 1N
• C5: 3V 1E 1N
• C6: 1V 1E 1N
• C7: Only Brandon can secure V Win, only SK exe can secure E Win, N Win otherwise

 No Red Hit Today, 1 Tomorrow:

• C3: 6V 3E 1N
• C4: 3V 3E 1N
• C5: 1V 2E 1N, E Wins (Only if SK doesn’t count for E!Parity, which idk)

The rest are kind of self explanatory and are better off considering next cycle. In any case, the SK needs to hit Red soon or they’re doomed

ED1T: @Kasimir did Mat ever clarify if the SK kill will go through during their exe? 

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

ED1T: @Kasimir did Mat ever clarify if the SK kill will go through during their exe? 

Nope. Intuitive answer is yes - kills probably proc at the same time as the exe, but he never answered that. Gonna suggest asking in GM PM at this point to make sure he catches it. Would do it myself but I'm having to make some final decision calls - I like the tie as I think it could be informative, but I take your point and don't believe there's more value to be gained by staying up tonight in the hopes someone or some scrap of analysis will bring clarity.

In light of my known issues with the tie, I think strongly signalling my vote will move won't have the desired effect anyway. I don't really like the people on the JNV train but I guess it is what it is.

Quote

Vote Tally
Ashbringer (3): Amanuensis, JNV, Kasimir
JNV (3): Ookla the Bald, Ookla the Resolute, Winnie the Pookla
Illwei (1): neil the beguiled

JNV - sorry Quokka Buddy.

Edited to add:

Don't think I'll hang around tonight. Thread is clearly deserted, as Aman has pointed out, analysis has reached an end, and it's been almost a week of poor sleep and two all-nighters, and I start GMing tomorrow. I'm going to trust the Village to make the right decision and stop questioning everything and go sleep. I won't be back for rollover.

Goodnight, everyone! o7

Edited December 17, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

I do have a niggling QuoSKka theory. Are we doomed if we exe the SK today?

• C3: 6V 3E 1N
• C4: 4V 3E

Seems that answer is no, but requires us exeing correctly until the game ends. One ML and we lose unless Brandon manages to block a kill.

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Don't think I'll hang around tonight. Thread is clearly deserted, as Aman has pointed out, analysis has reached an end, and it's been almost a week of poor sleep and two all-nighters, and I start GMing tomorrow. I'm going to trust the Village to make the right decision and stop questioning everything and go sleep. I won't be back for rollover.

Goodnight, everyone! o7

We’ll make it work! Gnight friend

Edited December 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

@Kasimir, I think I gave my reasons for Cash back when I voted, but I felt like he went with a low-effort vote. There was also some level of self-preservation involved, as I recall.

If I live the night I should be able to step up my game and relieve some of the weight from Kas/Aman

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Winnie the Pookla said:

@Kasimir, I think I gave my reasons for Cash back when I voted, but I felt like he went with a low-effort vote. There was also some level of self-preservation involved, as I recall.

If I live the night I should be able to step up my game and relieve some of the weight from Kas/Aman

I’m protecting Araris tonight. Got it

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

@Kasimir, I think I gave my reasons for Cash back when I voted, but I felt like he went with a low-effort vote. There was also some level of self-preservation involved, as I recall.

If I live the night I should be able to step up my game and relieve some of the weight from Kas/Aman

You specifically said this:

Cash pointed out this was untrue:

Trying to understand why this didn't have much impact.

And I suppose a side of:

You listed these people as who you'd vote on a Village flip from Cash and then go into JNV?

 

[neil the beguiled]

illwei

science results: yeah i have no clue. full transparency ig, i wanted to put a vote down there to see how the greater thread would interact with it- the fact that it wasnt piled on at all generally indicates a red slot- ie to say if it was green the elims would take bait of it.  issue is i was not expecting a sub in at all-

and from that it feels as if illwei's been almost threadspewed town? question; how much would you stake that this isnt e!illwei?? can anybody concretely say that they think they are the same alignment as her?

illwei; question, you criticised me for "blindly" following the same people you were shading, can i have you forward an opinion on the current wagons then? (ash,jnv). and also what you think of araris?

side note, there was something that pinged me about aman earlier as specifically sk aligned in his talking about aeoryi which is making me want to eat my teeth. @Amanuensis question; why do you think aeoyi making worlds that include you as an elim is specifically pingy? You state there that a villager needs to put in genuine work, but youre so caught up in yourself that you dont see that that post from aeoryi is a lot of genuine work? Aeoryi feels like a free villager this game and the suspicion ramping up there is worrying fmpov because it feels like shes being designated as a misvote. Do you think that v!aeoryi should not be making worlds with you in it? Why? What do you make of her not including Kas then. Do you object to that?

other than that. meow. :3

edit:

science results seem to be: dont let me cook.

edit2:

im going back to sleep

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by neil the beguiled

[Araris Valerian he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Trying to understand why this didn't have much impact.

The focus on myself was implied; if he’d read the VC accurately he’d have suspected me as much as Wiz.