Mid-Range Game 67: 'Twas the Night Before SA5

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH I’m fond of you playing Devil’s Advocate, where reasonable. You frequently see things where I don’t and Vice Versa, hence things like our differing Wizard read this game, which helps me either commit to my intuition or relent from my position. Also think it helps you too.

Roger that, and yeah - as I said, I found myself slipping a bit into more an interlocuter position and if it is an Aeo tunnel, I'd rather we not just feed that (which is what happened in LG84 IMO - Orlok was looking to me to hold him back, I Did Not Do That, and the Arelene doc just went into a mass tunnel on you occasionally egged on by Shadow.)

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I guess where I’d like to see your thoughts most rn would be this:

1. What are your conclusions about the C2 exe? V/V or E/V? Why?
2. As an extension, what teams feel the most coherent when you look at both Kill choices and Wagonomics?

@Kasimir I also remember you doing some predictions about when the kills most likely would have been put in. Does that significantly narrow our suspects?

Obviously need to go look things up and think for most of these.

My current instinct FWIW - V/V.

And the kill thing, yeah that's what I'm trying to cross-reference against the original NKA I did, tbh.

I stil feel - and this is instinctively correct to me - that the train angle is absolutely a complete mistake. I think if we expect a frame kill wrt Devo, I'd argue to look more closely at <Neil, JNV, Coffee.> (But I also don't fully believe this is a kill JNV makes here.)

But I don't really expect a frame kill. I think it's either:

A. Aiming to leave us paranoia-exeing in <you, me, Neil, Aeo>
B. What it says on the tin: that there's an Elim in <you, me, Neil, Aeo>, maybe two.

If A., definitely my eye goes straight to TKN. It's the QF64 playbook again. But also, at the same time, not. So I lean B. But this is purely from a NKA angle, mind.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I’m kinda at the point where I think Aeo needs to die for clarity’s sake alone, but also to guarantee less noise and uncertainty come lylo.

[Kasimir he/him]

@Amanuensis Question for you. How much do you see yourself as summoning exes these days? In particular, this game. I'm trying to run some analysis.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@Amanuensis Question for you. How much do you see yourself as summoning exes these days? In particular, this game. I'm trying to run some analysis.

In the sense that I am the instigator of exes on others, or in the sense that exes form on me?

Edited December 16, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

In the sense that I am the instigator of exes on others, or in the sense that exes form on me?

Former. I'm trying to think about the extent to which you believe you had an impact on the Araris train - my assessment right now is that there's high complacency on C2 as well but it's differently-valenced from C1 and for that reason, I'm currently redoing C1 now we know the Elims were also working off the (wrong) public counts.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Former. I'm trying to think about the extent to which you believe you had an impact on the Araris train - my assessment right now is that there's high complacency on C2 as well but it's differently-valenced from C1 and for that reason, I'm currently redoing C1 now we know the Elims were also working off the (wrong) public counts.

I don't know if the Araris exe would have existed or persisted without me, but the cycle did feel pretty stagnant around when I brought up having trouble finding any great alternatives.

Also I just got to work so expect minimal and sporadic activity until I get off in 9 hours.

[Kasimir he/him]

30 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I don't know if the Araris exe would have existed or persisted without me, but the cycle did feel pretty stagnant around when I brought up having trouble finding any great alternatives.

Also I just got to work so expect minimal and sporadic activity until I get off in 9 hours.

I'm leaning V/E now FWIW but I think you are the main ? here. Doing the longer analysis, and will be hoping to get rest to synch with you, but the short of it is I think it's telling we had two major CWs rather than the indifference and split of D1. Which feels faster-paced, compared to the early Cash indifference.

The main potential distortion factor I can see here is if you expect that you made a significant difference in pulling people off potential sidetrains and onto one of the two main trains. The contrast to D1 is visceral.

Edited to add:

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I’m kinda at the point where I think Aeo needs to die for clarity’s sake alone, but also to guarantee less noise and uncertainty come lylo.

As the voice of reason/Devil's Advocate here, I firmly suggest you find three priests and a stuffed cushion and begin the Spanish Inquisition and prepare the bonfires—oh sorry wrong Devil's Advocate.

I can't really say I disagree? I suppose part of it is my giving your views more weight than what felt like Coffee crack, part of it is both of you feeling that way (regardless of Coffee's alignment, it's still something to think about wrt the epistemology of disagreement), and my thoughts coming off NKA for C2. There's an additional factor which is that suppose <you, me, Aeo, Neil> are pure and we're closing on the Elims. Isn't this the world in which the Elims absolutely whittle us the f down? Why isn't this happening? Do they hold their nerve? (Maybe. Interested in @Winnie the Pookla's take here.) I'm not really fond of theories that suggest the Elims are being reactive here, and that sort of makes me think that the reason there wasn't any attempt to target is that it's tainted but also potentially (and combined with that), we're barking up the wrong trees.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

I'm leaning V/E now FWIW but I think you are the main ? here. Doing the longer analysis, and will be hoping to get rest to synch with you, but the short of it is I think it's telling we had two major CWs rather than the indifference and split of D1. Which feels faster-paced, compared to the early Cash indifference.

The main potential distortion factor I can see here is if you expect that you made a significant difference in pulling people off potential sidetrains and onto one of the two main trains. The contrast to D1 is visceral.

Edited to add:

As the voice of reason/Devil's Advocate here, I firmly suggest you find three priests and a stuffed cushion and begin the Spanish Inquisition and prepare the bonfires—oh sorry wrong Devil's Advocate.

I can't really say I disagree? I suppose part of it is my giving your views more weight than what felt like Coffee crack, part of it is both of you feeling that way (regardless of Coffee's alignment, it's still something to think about wrt the epistemology of disagreement), and my thoughts coming off NKA for C2. There's an additional factor which is that suppose <you, me, Aeo, Neil> are pure and we're closing on the Elims. Isn't this the world in which the Elims absolutely whittle us the f down? Why isn't this happening? Do they hold their nerve? (Maybe. Interested in @Winnie the Pookla's take here.) I'm not really fond of theories that suggest the Elims are being reactive here, and that sort of makes me think that the reason there wasn't any attempt to target is that it's tainted but also potentially (and combined with that), we're barking up the wrong trees.

If you grant that I’m village for a moment, the elims could have banked on exeing the alternate train today, which means they have a lot of leeway with who they NK. Avoiding the protect might be higher priority for them than killing discussion, especially since the SK has hit 2 villagers so far.

Maybe I’m biased, but I think the presence of the SK makes bussing a much less attractive elim tactic, and in general favors going for a sweep, especially with 1-2 early village SK targets.

Of the 4 “talky” player’s you list, I’d exe in order Aeoryi, neil, Aman, you. But realistically Aeoryi is miles more suspicious than the rest.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

If you grant that I’m village for a moment, the elims could have banked on exeing the alternate train today, which means they have a lot of leeway with who they NK. Avoiding the protect might be higher priority for them than killing discussion, especially since the SK has hit 2 villagers so far.

If I grant you're Village, isn't that a tough call?

Fair on the protect. Any chance they're trying to kill the SK to avoid losing their number unnecessarily?

1 minute ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Maybe I’m biased, but I think the presence of the SK makes bussing a much less attractive elim tactic, and in general favors going for a sweep, especially with 1-2 early village SK targets.

Why so?

2 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Of the 4 “talky” player’s you list, I’d exe in order Aeoryi, neil, Aman, you. But realistically Aeoryi is miles more suspicious than the rest.

Why that ranking?

[The Unknown Order he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Elims don't care about the SK, remember? They win as long as they hit overparity with us, meaning that as the SK hasn't been hitting them, the Elims probably dgaf as much. In fact, exeing Village today is what they need for us to hit lylo: exe a Villager, Elims and SK both kill a Villager.

There's the world in which the SK hits right, I suppose, but still.

Edited to add:

Using Aman's 6/3/1 which IDR right now someone tell me if I'm crossing wires, I suppose going 4/3 still puts us at lylo next cycle, tbf. I just don't see them particularly worrying about the SK if they don't believe they're going to be hit.

Ngl I'm annoyed enough with the SK at this juncture I'm probably rooting for an Elim win if Village loses for the first time in my life. Village win first always though.

Not what I meant. I meant our own overlap of interests. Could be elim+decent chance of SK=slightly better than normal exe.

Though I actually disagree with that statement. SK is a very hard role, and elims are our mortal enemies, so I'd probably prefer them over the elims. 

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel it worth pointing out, which Aeo should rediscover with an ISO, that I was one of the first pushing for the Araris exe. I decided a rand was okay because Cash was a slot that needed to be resolved regardless, as I didn’t think we’d find a good way to read him anytime soon whereas I believe v!Araris could still make himself known, and because I’m merciful. So her big post where she puts me on most teams is just confusing tbh and not really convincing me to vote elsewhere.

I can see Neil/Aeo being teamed tbh, hence their collective drop. While towncores are fairly normal in mafia outside our forum, I’m always cautious of players who try to create them, particularly when they volunteer themselves for it, which is why I’d ignored Neil’s suggestion in the first place. IIRC TKN publicly opposed it which is an interesting datapoint too (speak of the Ninja and he shall appear).

The way I see it, Aeo’s views of the game keep evolving way too drastically, and the blatant openwolfing isn’t helping if she’s village. Logically feels inconsistent and/or opportunistic. I might even drop her further tbh.

The crux of today should be working out if Araris is V or E without an exe, if we can, and developing teams from there. Game feels very solvable rn, it’s just a matter of if Araris was getting bussed or if his team were too inactive to care or he’s village and the elims propped up his exe to delay. In 2 of 3 of those worlds, Aeo looks very shady with her pushes today, hence my current vote.
 

gonna post now to see the ninjas cause it’s not giving me the prompt to load them without refreshing the page

C1 Votes Colored:

• Archer/Paradigm (4): Araris Valerian/Pookla, Ravenclawjedi42/Participle, TheRavenHasLanded/Ravens, The Wandering Wizard/Raveness
• JNV (1): Kasimir
• Aeoryi/Resolute (3): Cash67/Rich, Aeoryi/Resolute, Devotary of Spontaneity
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Archer/Paradigm
• Ravenclawjedi42 (2): neil the beguiled, Amanuensis
• No Vote (5): Ash, TKN, JNV, Alpha, Coffee

That was partly joking, but as someone who has been completely excluded, partly included, and pretty deep with towncores or something very similar, it's incredibly effective, but not really fun even for those within it. Hence why I'll oppose the idea to start one, but support one once it's made.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Donde está la elims?

Estamos todos elims.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why so?

The normal benefit of bussing is that you get a teammate out of the POE, which basically means they won’t die. The SK could target folks that exe an elim though, so you potentially lose the death protection. So the risk/reward ratio skews way more risky.

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If I grant you're Village, isn't that a tough call?

Not quite sure what you mean, but I think it’s plausible that the extent of the elim strategy was “exe one of Araris/Cash today, exe the other next cycle, hope the SK misses us and we win”. Of course given current killing patterns the elims would avoid the SK best by just not voting.

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why that ranking?

Feel like Aeoryi is obvious, she’s not making a clear attempt to help the village win, and at times seems to be doing the opposite. Neil feels alright but I don’t know his play style as well as you and Aman. Aman’s tricksy, so there’s a not-too-distant world where I exe him before Neil. Would need to do a more focused reread of his posts for that. And nothing you’ve posted has seemed anything but solvy to me.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Winnie the Pookla said:

Not quite sure what you mean, but I think it’s plausible that the extent of the elim strategy was “exe one of Araris/Cash today, exe the other next cycle, hope the SK misses us and we win”. Of course given current killing patterns the elims would avoid the SK best by just not voting.

You aren't exactly the easiest son-of-a-chull to exe this side of the Sellen, Dyring!

Commenting on anything else later - my attention is actually about 90% on the vote analysis I'm finishing up.

Edited to add:

I hate to be that guy but I noticed a missing vote in an intermediate VC and I'm PTSD Chihuahua all over again ._.

Spoiler

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Aeoryi she/her]

I'm done with this crem. If everyone is just content on voting me, then what's even the point of defending myself anymore.

@Kasimir @Amanuensis @JNV this is literally just a repeat of the Sono incident. I don't like Aman's insurance on making sure I am V and bringing lylo one cycle closer. I don't like the insurance if reading both Aman and JNV village. I don't like how no one is considering who e!me is paired with, or who is suspect if I flip v. It just implies that everyone voting on me thinks that I'm going to flip green before I actually do.

@Coffeecat the reason why I am ignoring the train on me is because I just don't care anymore. Nothing seems to happen regardless of how much time I spend on the thread trying to figure things out, so it's just not worth my time anymore.

Aeoryi

Your loss, not mine. 

[Coffeecat she/her]

I just think it's weird that instead of doing something like starting a counter push you just close off, but I understand it's frustrating. If it matters, I don't think voting you is the best idea right now, but I am unsure what else we can do. Except hope the SK hits red if you are v. 

I'm probably not the best person to speak for you since I'm bad at analyzing people's actions.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Coffeecat said:

I just think it's weird that instead of doing something like starting a counter push you just close off, but I understand it's frustrating. If it matters, I don't think voting you is the best idea right now, but I am unsure what else we can do. Except hope the SK hits red if you are v. 

I'm probably not the best person to speak for you since I'm bad at analyzing people's actions.

You were strongly pushing E!Aeo and E!Araris last cycle...?

[Coffeecat she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You were strongly pushing E!Aeo and E!Araris last cycle...?

I was mostly pushing for araris, which I still am. Aeoryi is just being weird, giving reads rather than giving reasons as to why they are village. However, I see where they are coming from if they do end up being village.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I was mostly pushing for araris, which I still am. Aeoryi is just being weird, giving reads rather than giving reasons as to why they are village. However, I see where they are coming from if they do end up being village.

Why should she give reasons as to why she is Village?

Don't get me wrong, I'm really not a fan of Aeo swinging between chaos and overdefending and it's really still not helping that chaos = Evil button, but...

As a Villager, giving reads and analysing helps your team and is bread-and-butter. As MR56!Aman said, less defending, more doing Village work. If you are a Villager, that's where it really comes from - walking the talk. Expecting her to spend more time giving us reasons to think she's Village is ??? because the concern shouldn't be with how you are read (barring what it says about others reading you) but with helping your team.

Edited to add:

I'll also note your response to the third teammate question isn't really working out well since Wiz flipped Village. So you're committed to Aeo's team being cool with Aeo in a 50/50 D1 which is not impossible, but - well, my vote analysis I'm reworking on has a line there that's basically about the human condition and the darkness of the human soul

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Order he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why should she give reasons as to why she is Village?

Because, if she's village, then she knows that an exe on her is a misexe, and is therefore bad. Helping your team is getting an elim exed instead of a villager, and voting yourself and giving up less than halfway through the cycle isn’t that.

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Because, if she's village, then she knows that an exe on her is a misexe, and is therefore bad. Helping your team is getting an elim exed instead of a villager, and voting yourself and giving up less than halfway through the cycle isn’t that.

This was pretty much my point.

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'll also note your response to the third teammate question isn't really working out well since Wiz flipped Village. So you're committed to Aeo's team being cool with Aeo in a 50/50 D1 which is not impossible,

I realize I look pretty bad now that wiz ended up being village, and I'm soooorta not so sure about aeoryi being evil, but i do think araris is.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Because, if she's village, then she knows that an exe on her is a misexe, and is therefore bad. Helping your team is getting an elim exed instead of a villager, and voting yourself and giving up less than halfway through the cycle isn’t that.

My point is that it's overdefending again - sitting down and spelling out reasons for V!you is bare minimum but helping your team by offering reads and doing analysis work so they can read your mindset is better. Coffee expects Aeo to defend passively which is kinda ???

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

This was pretty much my point.

Well, this is mine. Not going to comment on the self-voting - honestly she does it so often I just ignore it everytime she does it now for my own sanity. But you accuse her of giving reads instead of defending herself which is just a weird position to have.

Edited to add 2:

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I realize I look pretty bad now that wiz ended up being village, and I'm soooorta not so sure about aeoryi being evil, but i do think araris is.

I don't think it makes you look pretty bad, but I'm asking you if you think this affects the coherence or the grounds of your view now. FWIW I'm still partway through my re-read and not sure about you but I've flagged some posts I like and V!lean you.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Kasimir

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Well, this is mine. Not going to comment on the self-voting - honestly she does it so often I just ignore it everytime she does it now for my own sanity. But you accuse her of giving reads instead of defending herself which is just a weird position to have

I am suggesting instead of only giving reads she actually gives a more suitable option to execute instead 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My point is that it's overdefending again - sitting down and spelling out reasons for V!you is bare minimum but helping your team by offering reads and doing analysis work so they can read your mindset is better. Coffee expects Aeo to defend passively which is kinda ???

Edited to add:

Well, this is mine. Not going to comment on the self-voting - honestly she does it so often I just ignore it everytime she does it now for my own sanity. But you accuse her of giving reads instead of defending herself which is just a weird position to have.

Well, you should be doing both. It's not an either or situation, and she's not really doing either. Sure there were some reads, but there's nothing really in depth to or about them.

Edit: I appreciate that me and Coffee pretty much keep ninja'ing each other saying roughly the same thing.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Ookla the Bald

[Coffeecat she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Coffee expects Aeo to defend passively which is kinda ???

I'm saying the opposite, instead of defending passively by giving reads, she also actively tells us who she thinks we should vote instead of aeoryi

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Bald said:

Well, you should be doing both. It's not an either or situation, and she's not really doing either. Sure there were some reads, but there's nothing really in depth to or about them.

Why?

Again, it's not either-or, but Coffee specifically thinks that just giving reads is a problem instead of defending herself, as though there's anything 'just' about showing up and doing Village work. Obsessing with how you look over doing Village work is what got Mat exed in MR56 on C1.

2 minutes ago, Coffeecat said:

I am suggesting instead of only giving reads she actually gives a more suitable option to execute instead 

This I would agree with, but that's not defending herself - it's making a case for someone else.

[Coffeecat she/her]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Bald said:

Edit: I appreciate that me and Coffee pretty much keep ninja'ing each other saying roughly the same thing.

And we have done it again

Just now, Kasimir said:

thinks that just giving reads is a problem

I don't?

 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

This I would agree with, but that's not defending herself - it's making a case for someone else.

She is going to be lynched today, giving another Lynch option a push would be defending as well