Mid-Range Game 64: Shades of Crimson

[Ashbringer he/him]

As much as I hate directing power roles what to do, DeTess being Banished makes things a bit easier. 

For the exe, Archer for now.

[DeTess she/her]

9 hours ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Or maybe I just promised to save him, and am apologizing for not following through on that? I still don’t trust him, if that’s what you’re implying. Honestly I’m super confused about how you can read my apology as AI at all.

Because I'm having a hard time figuring out how someone without superior knowledge of the alignments would feel the need to apologize for an execution at all, especially one that is flipless.

@Archer, if Aman had self-pressed, he'd have been up for the execution again today. letting it come down to chance would have made him look better if he'd won the flip, and increased his odds of getting brought back if he hadn't.

8 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm aware Alpha was the NK. There's probably three elims and the exe took two votes. They had control of the situation, so when deciding who to push, Aman made sense as a target. 

8 hours ago, Archer said:

Here's a thought. E!Alpha was pulling a bold gambit. A WGG is also a bold gambit. Normally I'd say you delay your WGG until C2, but if you want resurrection, you need to do it C1. I'd say this is unlikely, but last I played with e!Alpha he was giddy to get into gambits and was rewarded for pulling one. 

So why can't the logic you present here for Alpha not be applied to Aman as well?

For now, putting my vote on Wonko. Both Archer and Wonko are giving me real odd vibes on their reaction to the Aman execution, so I'm fine with either.

Also, just a heads-up, yesterday's headache cleared, but I'm still not at a 100%, so don't expect too much in the way of engagement this cycle.

[Archer he/him]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

As much as I hate directing power roles what to do, DeTess being Banished makes things a bit easier. 

For the exe, Archer for now.

So you also think we should banish DeTess :P. 

Also, we have 4 knives in play probably, so odds are okay that someone with one gets there organically. 

8 hours ago, DeTess said:

Because I'm having a hard time figuring out how someone without superior knowledge of the alignments would feel the need to apologize for an execution at all, especially one that is flipless.

@Archer, if Aman had self-pressed, he'd have been up for the execution again today. letting it come down to chance would have made him look better if he'd won the flip, and increased his odds of getting brought back if he hadn't.

So why can't the logic you present here for Alpha not be applied to Aman as well?

For now, putting my vote on Wonko. Both Archer and Wonko are giving me real odd vibes on their reaction to the Aman execution, so I'm fine with either.

It felt more like a continuation of this thought, 90 minutes before rollover

Quote

Well, now Aman is going to die. He might be good with that, but I'm not sure I am.

@Amanuensis, Sell me on a reason to vote DeTess and save you: why exactly are you suspicious of her?

EDIT: Ninja'd. Tell me about Ash, then. Also, I'm not sure you're getting a response from DeTess; she hasn't been on in 8 hours, and rollover's around the corner.

Where he says I'm not gonna let Aman die. Then fails (due to IRL stuff allegedly) to follow through. Hence the apology. 

If Aman is WGGing, the plan would have to be a backup one. Aman is okay ending up at a tie and counting on a resurrection. But at least 2 people wanted him dead, what if one is the Shard holder? (Alpha kill might make sense in that light though because you want the choice to be between a NOT consensus villager who got NKed versus you. But it kinda confirms a villager was voting for you, making it seem less nefarious....). 

In what world does e!Wonko accuse Alpha of game throwing? Everyone involved in that had too much genuine emotion for them to be not village. I feel e!Alpha would have been less hurt but it, e!Wonko wouldn't have called it game throwing. Reread that interaction, they went hard at each other. 

 

Is there any appetite for a TJ exe now? I genuinely believe theyre evil still. 

[|TJ| he/him]

pardon, had quite a busy weekend. 

iirc when I suspected archer in the previous recent games his response has been between mild replies to non-obvious ignoring. Seeing a difference here where he's going on the offence, not sure if the difference is from village alignment or different play style but gut says former. still feel something off though. 

still suspect mat. but also the shift off from devo last cycle was also weird, it felt like there was an effort to save her. still feel something up with archer-devo e/e. 

village - wonko, tkn 

evil - mat, archer, devo

[Ashbringer he/him]

7 hours ago, Archer said:

So you also think we should banish DeTess :P. 

Also, we have 4 knives in play probably, so odds are okay that someone with one gets there organically. 

Yes? I don't particularly trust DeTess at this moment, partially because of an Aman push. If she wants to risk getting Banished or eaten by Shades to get us a flip, sure.

And I also don't particularly trust the organic method. We don't know if the Homestead Leader is Village or not, or if they take requests or not.

[Mat he/him]

My engagement has been horrible and for that I apologize, but the good news is that I’m traveling home today so the rest of the game should be better :P.

Archer to me feels like the simplest answer based on the calculus of us needing flips + DeTess offering us flips + Archer trying to exe DeTess, but maybe that’s too obvious. Seems fine for now.

[Archer he/him]

46 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Yes? I don't particularly trust DeTess at this moment, partially because of an Aman push. If she wants to risk getting Banished or eaten by Shades to get us a flip, sure.

And I also don't particularly trust the organic method. We don't know if the Homestead Leader is Village or not, or if they take requests or not.

I mostly don't like her Aman vote, but I understand the logic of her claiming and then volunteering to go (presumably kill Aman) means she's villagey. 

You think the elim team got what is essentially a free extra kill every other cycle? Versus a villager, for whom it should be more like a village death half the time, an elim death half the time, so much less painful to the balance of the game. I didn't realize TKN was trying to pressure the Homestead Leader because of concerns about their alignment, I thought we were just floating who we'd like to see dead too. 

If we banish, exe, NK this cycle, that's makes 5/11 people banished. With 4 knives in play, it's very likely a knife makes it through without extra intervention. 

44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

My engagement has been horrible 

Mat Detess

I'm using this tell as my pretext, but also remember my suspect pool is fairly narrow. JNV is unanalyzable, no one is willing to vote TJ, so it's you or Devo that are left. 

Also I don't think kill Archer because he's trying to block DeTess' ascension to the shadow realm so we won't get any flips is a serious theory. See above where I discuss there being four knives in play. 

 

There's a chance I die and no one has fessed up to it in PMs so here's a tidbit. I was attacked by a Fighter last night. Gut says they're village because they maybe wanted to stop me from submitting the NK, but actually it's on a delayed cycle so never mind that theory. Could be either alignment. 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

17 hours ago, DeTess said:

Because I'm having a hard time figuring out how someone without superior knowledge of the alignments would feel the need to apologize for an execution at all, especially one that is flipless.

Again, because I promised I wouldn't let it happen, then didn't follow through? Seriously, why is it so suspicious that I feel bad for breaking my word?

17 hours ago, DeTess said:

So why can't the logic you present here for Alpha not be applied to Aman as well?

It definitely can; I already cited it above as a reason not to trust Aman yet. But we were trying to figure out the motivations for a very bizarre choice made by the Elims last night, which is why we were talking about Alpha, not Aman. If the Elims forced the Aman lynch, there are any number of reasons for that -- one of which is a WGG by E!Aman, yes. But we know for certain that they killed Alpha, and possible reasons for that are not obvious. I really don't like you derailing that conversation to speculate about Aman.

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

pardon, had quite a busy weekend. 

iirc when I suspected archer in the previous recent games his response has been between mild replies to non-obvious ignoring. Seeing a difference here where he's going on the offence, not sure if the difference is from village alignment or different play style but gut says former. still feel something off though. 

still suspect mat. but also the shift off from devo last cycle was also weird, it felt like there was an effort to save her. still feel something up with archer-devo e/e. 

village - wonko, tkn 

evil - mat, archer, devo

Interesting. I suppose this is a good time to note that I've had my own e/e with those two cooking for a while, ever since this post:

In which Devo nearly word-for-word recites a prediction I made to Archer about the distribution. I asked Archer if he had any PMs with her, and he confirmed he didn't. It's totally possible that she came up with the same observations, worded in a very similar way, all on her own, but it's something worth noting.

All told, I really want to vote DeTess, for a few different reasons I've mentioned, but she has the knife claim as a good reason not to kill her (which I worry is why she claimed in the first place). So instead, I'll put my vote on Archer. I think that an Archer flip would be extremely useful given the number of theories he's entangled with right now.

I also think that, contrary to my prior requests, the Homesteader Leader should banish Detess, both because of my light suspicion of her, and because right now the possible flips, Aman and Alpha, would be EXTREMELY valuable, and I want a knife out there before too many more people die.

[Mat he/him]

Fwiw Archer hammering down on me only solidifies my vote as he’s incorrectly run under the assumption that low activity me = elim me before, and really shouldn’t be doing it again. Low engagement during the final days of vacation and subsequent travel back is nothing but NAI.

[Ashbringer he/him]

23 minutes ago, Archer said:

You think the elim team got what is essentially a free extra kill every other cycle? Versus a villager, for whom it should be more like a village death half the time, an elim death half the time, so much less painful to the balance of the game. I didn't realize TKN was trying to pressure the Homestead Leader because of concerns about their alignment, I thought we were just floating who we'd like to see dead too.

From my understanding Banished Villagers still count towards parity, while Banished Elims don’t (@Szeth_Pancakes?). Villagers could be still doomed by the Shades, of course, but they could also be saved by a survivalist or have Knives. It doesn’t seem that strong in Elim hands, especially compared to an Assassin or the Dawnshard (which specifically doesn’t start in Elim hands as opposed to the other two which could be in either).

I think an e!Survivalist distro is more likely than an e!Homestead Leader, but I don’t like assuming that anyone is Village. And whether or not they banish DeTess will perhaps give some credit to that. Threnody-Ash is paranoid 

And Wonko agrees with most of my ideas. Not sure what to feel about that.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

24 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I asked Archer if he had any PMs with her, and he confirmed he didn't.

Light correction on this: Archer challenged me on this statement, and made me realize that I asked Devo about any PMs, not him. That said, he has now independently confirmed that they have no PMs. Sorry for the mixup! Point still stands about Devo's eerily accurate reproduction of something I said in a PM, though.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Wonko the Sane

[Archer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

From my understanding Banished Villagers still count towards parity, while Banished Elims don’t (@Szeth_Pancakes?). Villagers could be still doomed by the Shades, of course, but they could also be saved by a survivalist or have Knives. It doesn’t seem that strong in Elim hands, especially compared to an Assassin or the Dawnshard (which specifically doesn’t start in Elim hands as opposed to the other two which could be in either).

I think an e!Survivalist distro is more likely than an e!Homestead Leader, but I don’t like assuming that anyone is Village. And whether or not they banish DeTess will perhaps give some credit to that. Threnody-Ash is paranoid 

And Wonko agrees with most of my ideas. Not sure what to feel about that.

Numbers in a parity equation can't vote. I think we should treat banished people as as good as dead because once we lose thread control, it's basically over. Plus, eventually the Shard ends up in evil hands and that tap gets shut off. 

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Fwiw Archer hammering down on me only solidifies my vote as he’s incorrectly run under the assumption that low activity me = elim me before, and really shouldn’t be doing it again. Low engagement during the final days of vacation and subsequent travel back is nothing but NAI.

I find it hard to believe V!Mat misinterprets this the way he has. If we review the LG95 evil doc, Mat acknowledges my theory that every time he's been evil recently, he's taken pains to mention is unavailability, presumably to head off playstyle change accusations. It's two for two so far, and Mat has brought up his vacay three times this game. It seemed more natural to start, but he's bringing it up regularly now, so I think it falls within the realm of his tell. 

Quote

I’ve already been yelled at for talking about my activity too much, but that’s just Archer xD I don’t know if v!me talks about activity actually. That’s only tangentially related I suppose.

 

So Wonko why do I call Devo's point out then? If I wanted to stage that convo, I'd just respond to you to make my point. If Devo copied you from an elim doc info dump, why would I respond - and like this? 

 

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

12 minutes ago, Archer said:

So Wonko why do I call Devo's point out then? If I wanted to stage that convo, I'd just respond to you to make my point. If Devo copied you from an elim doc info dump, why would I respond - and like this? 

If I had to make an argument, e!you saw that e!Devo had slipped and accidentally reused a point you'd given her from a PM, and you stepped into the thread to do damage control to prevent me from drawing that connection. When I saw Devo's post, I actually wondered to myself if you'd do something exactly like that, and stage an argument with her. This isn't very solid evidence, and I acknowledge that. It's why I didn't immediately jump into the thread and say "I got 'em!". But when someone else is discussing an Archer-Devo e/e theory, it's worth adding the small evidence I had towards that theory. If you didn't tell it to her, you'll have to admit her post is weirdly similar to what I said in our PM. Could be a coincidence for sure, but it is definitely notable.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Wonko the Sane

[Mat he/him]

I guess I worded that badly. Tell or not, me being busy is NAI, I don’t know what you want me to do there :P. I think mentioning why I haven’t posted like at all this turn one time is more than reasonable.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

2 hours remaining. The vote currently sits at:

Archer (3): Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Wonko
Wonko (1): DeTess
Devotary (1): TJ
Matrim's Dice (1): Archer

The maybe-meaningless Banishment vote is at:

TKN (1): TKN
DeTess (3): DeTess, Ashbringer, Wonko

Edited July 17, 2023 by Wonko the Sane
I promise I can count.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

35 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

DeTess (1): DeTess, Ashbringer, Wonko

?

Should note for whoever the leader is, my vote was an example and I don't particularly care who gets Banished.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Just now, The Known Novel said:

?

Should note for whoever the leader is, my vote was an example and I don't particularly care who gets Banished.

Woops. Fixed.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Don't think Archer is evil honestly. Those votes on DeTess and Mat don't make sense as an elim and e!Archer would know better that he can't submit the NK this cycle instead of being blocked last cycle. Although maybe being against banishment does lean evil. Pointless at this time but I'll vote Mat.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

The cycle is over! Please refrain from posting and PMing until the next cycle is up.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

MR64 Cycle Three: The Edge of Crimson

It is not your time.

Lazy Bones heard the voice through a haze. The small part of his mind that was still aware of its surroundings objected. It damned well was his time. It’d been his time for going on a decade now. Why don’t you bring the kid back? he asked the voice. He couldn’t tell if he was speaking or simply thinking the words. He supposed that in a place like this, surrounded by dark, malevolent energy, it didn’t matter.

The voice answered simply: It is not your time.

Why the shadows is that?

Look. We both know you’re innocent. The kid… The voice made a noncommittal noise. Perhaps it’s best if he stays dead.

There it is, Lazy Bones replied.

The voice sighed annoyedly. Suddenly, Lazy Bones’ vision was suffused with light, and he was back in his rocking chair, the wound from the pitchfork nowhere to be seen. He smiled as he saw a hooded form disappearing around the corner of his cottage.

*

Jade NeVron ran through the dark of the night, skirting the edge of Crimson while still staying in the relative safety of the forest. It was funny: before today, if someone had said the forests were “safe,” they would have laughed them out of the room. However, circumstances had changed (as all things did) and the dangers of the forests were the least of their concerns.

They became aware that a crossbow bolt had speared through their shoulder, spilling blood at an alarming rate. Shadows, they thought dimly. Now, if their attacker didn’t kill them, unless he could find shelter, a shade would.

It was a moot point, however, as another bolt then struck them in the chest, killing them instantly.

*

Awhey hated Crimson. He didn’t hate it in a passive, this place is a hell-hole but I’m here so I guess I’ll just have to deal way. He hated it with a fiery, unbridled passion.

“Hate’t,” he told the new bartender. “S’much.” Somehow, his beer tasted even worse the more of it he had. “Y’all can go ta hell. Oh wait yer ‘lready ‘nit.”

Someone started shouting behind him. “Dirty forter merchant,” it sounded like he was saying. It occurred to Awhey that he was talking to him. There was more shouting. Awhey didn’t even bother to turn around as the man stabbed him in the neck.

*

“Tess.”

“Wha-” Tess started out of her sleep. She narrowed her eyes at the person standing above her. “How did you get in here?”

“You know how.”

“What are you planning to do with me?”

“I’ve heard the pleas of the rest of Crimson. They want you gone.”

Tess narrowed her eyes, but nodded, grabbed her satchel – it had enough food in it to get her to the next homestead, fifty miles through the forest from here – and walked out the door.

---

Vote Count.

Spoiler

Archer (3): Ashbringer, Matrim, Wonko

Wonko (1): DeTess

Devotary (1): TJ

Matrim (2): Archer, Devotary

Amanuensis has been resurrected!

Archer has become a Shade!

JNV has become a Shade!

DeTess has been Banished!

Cycle Three has begun. The turn will end on June 18, 2023 at 7:30 PM PDT.

Player List.

Spoiler

1. @Matrim's Dice
2. @Archer - Awhey (seasonal costume merchant) - Shade
3. @Ashbringer - Frederrick (definitely not a sleeper agent)
4. @TheAlpha929 - Jormmuthar (definitely not a sidekick to a sleeper agent) - Shade
5. @JNV  - Shade
6. @|TJ| 
7. @DeTess - Banished
8. @Devotary of Spontaneity - The Lustrous Parbem (the Surveyor and the Guide) and its translator Silven
9. @Wonko the Sane - Prof. Ashford Longfellow (an Abundance anthropologist)
10. @The Known Novel
11. @Amanuensis - Lazy Bones (old man)

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[Amanuensis he/him]

Glad the Dawnsharder decided to rez someone. Thank you.

RIP Archer and JNV  I personally Village read them both.

I’m certain Alpha is Village, especially after the Shade Doc—

And the JNV kill suggests a pattern. Low information shots.

[Mat he/him]

Ayyyy Aman glad to have you back. I think. Reading JNV at all seems weird but I suppose vibes can come from but one post. I just definitely didn’t get anything.

Is there a reason Devo’s vote wasn’t counted?

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ayyyy Aman glad to have you back. I think. Reading JNV at all seems weird but I suppose vibes can come from but one post. I just definitely didn’t get anything.

Is there a reason Devo’s vote wasn’t counted?

Nope. I just missed it

Adding it in now.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Nope. I just missed it

Adding it in now.

Now add the correct number  

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Now add the correct number  

It's late ok