Mid-Range Game 64: Shades of Crimson

[Amanuensis he/him]

46 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ayyyy Aman glad to have you back. I think. Reading JNV at all seems weird but I suppose vibes can come from but one post. I just definitely didn’t get anything.

Is there a reason Devo’s vote wasn’t counted?

JNV did PM me C1. We didn’t get the chance to talk much, but it was good vibes and no phishing, so that’s mostly where my read was from.

ED1T:

Oh Alpha didn’t share much. He thanked Szeth for a cool death, claimed Vanilla, asked questions about the reads I gave him in case he got rezzed and how much I told JNV in our PM, and remarked on people theorizing e!him doing a crazy gambit.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[|TJ| he/him]

i keep thinking back to the interaction between archer and devotary where they're talking about the likelihood of a two member team and with this cycles voting pattern, im still holding onto my archer-devo team theory. 

i still trust wonko. level of trust in my tkn slightly reduced but that archer-tkn interaction is still very similar to the previous game so unlikely to shake it off. mildly leaning village towards aman as well, supposed involvement in shade doc determine and read alpha better a good look. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

i keep thinking back to the interaction between archer and devotary where they're talking about the likelihood of a two member team and with this cycles voting pattern, im still holding onto my archer-devo team theory. 

i still trust wonko. level of trust in my tkn slightly reduced but that archer-tkn interaction is still very similar to the previous game so unlikely to shake it off. mildly leaning village towards aman as well, supposed involvement in shade doc determine and read alpha better a good look. 

Ash moved up for me during C2, if only slightly. Tbh I began tunneling DeTess in the Shade doc because of their rigid e!read of me--felt like elim casting doubt on Shades to stop resurrection. I similarly flagged Archer for doing the same for Alpha, and I think Mat for following the line of thought / tying us both together, but these last two were pretty minor offenses (and I still read Archer village, but could be wrong there).

I'm at work today but have tomorrow off so will vote Devo until I can sit down and do some proper work

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

Things Noted By Me As I Reread:

• The first thing Wonko said in thread was that he doesn't want banishments to happen for awhile, yet he had no problems agreeing to banish DeTess. Counterpoint: he himself acknowledged the perspective change, and gave a reason for it. Result: Not actually that weird.
   
• TKN's down-to-earth bluntness actually reads very village to me on a second pass. Pretty confident on this one. If memory serves, e!TKN makes more effort to give effort.
   
• Wonko's response to Alpha's 'claim' contrarily reads less village to me this time around. In our PM he mentioned multiple times that while he's not superb at nailing reads, he excels and enjoys the manipulation aspect of the game, and I could absolutely see e!Wonko jumping on this opportunity to respond in that way. Maybe not an e!case, but I don't really village read it anymore.
   
• Devo connections: Wonko (saying he seems genuine regarding Alpha), Archer (see four points below)
   
• I still don't understand Aman's Ash vote D1 but I'm not sure there's really an answer to it. Most of his reads come with no explanation but he did say low effort Aman?
   
• The amount of times I mindmeld with Ash is surprising to me
   
• Points to DeTess for claiming the knife. Could definitely see an elim claiming one later, but not right away. Early flips = bad for the elims
   
• Archer saying that he expected/thought Devo would self pres is still very strange to me. Devo has a rep for late voting, and the cycle was barely halfway through. When I pointed this out, he gave the most non-answer of all non-answers, so I can definitely see the connection between them.
   
• @Amanuensis you said that no one had PMd you, ten minutes before the end of C1. Now you say that JNV PMd you C1. Which is it? I don't really care, but I am curious what the motivation behind the lie is  
   
• Archer saying that he thought the Aman wagon was e driven looks weird in retrospect when Alpha/DeTess are both likely village, imo, and there wasn't really a wagon so much as random votes that happened to add up to a whole two.
   
• I will say that Archer's theory regarding DeTess is legitimately a good one, and makes me reconsider my read somewhat.
   
• Actually I don't know how I feel about Archer/Devo as a team. They would have to had done very little distancing, which doesn't really feel right for either of them. I'll sit on that till hopefully Archer flips I guess.

Reads:

TKN, Alpha
Ash, DeTess
JNV, TJ, Aman
Devo, Wonko, Archer

Trying Wonko. Prior to my reread, I would not have ever guessed I'd be voting here, tbh :P.

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

you said that no one had PMd you, ten minutes before the end of C1. Now you say that JNV PMd you C1. Which is it? I don't really care, but I am curious what the motivation behind the lie is

The usual (i.e. didn’t want to draw an unnecessary target to JNV) or let the elims know anyone had PM'd me for my role claim.

To clarify, when I say JNV didn't try phishing me, they hadn't noticed my deal for the first 3 people to PM getting claims. They just wanted to check in and see how I was doing

ED1T:

Oh and the Ash vote was mostly just PoE. I village read most people more than I did him + wondered if he assumed Alpha was "RPing" evil because he had v!Alpha TMI

ED2T:

OH AND @Matrim's DiceI'd love a Skittles Rainbow if that's still something you do and you have time

Edited July 17, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

OH AND @Matrim's DiceI'd love a Skittles Rainbow if that's still something you do and you have time

Legitimately was eating skittles as I read this which caused only a minor double take

Sure, but it's basically just my reads list. It's already ordered. So I don't think you'll get much new information. Like, I make my skittles rainbows by making an ordered reads list and more or less arbitrarily adding pretty colors  

TKN, Alpha
Ash, DeTess
JNV, TJ, Aman
Devo, Wonko, Archer

Edited July 17, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Legitimately was eating skittles as I read this which caused only a minor double take

Sure, but it's basically just my reads list. It's already ordered. So I don't think you'll get much new information. Like, I make my skittles rainbows by making an ordered reads list and more or less arbitrarily adding pretty colors  

TKN, Alpha
Ash, DeTess
JNV, TJ, Aman
Devo, Wonko, Archer

:joy:

I figured that the information was probably in your big post earlier but thanks for coloring and condensing. I'm basically trying to shore up my V read of you rn because on the surface level, I have noticed you've been taking more initiate w/ posting your thoughts.

I get off work soon so will maybe update my read diamond before bed. If not then tomorrow for sure

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

The first thing Wonko said in thread was that he doesn't want banishments to happen for awhile, yet he had no problems agreeing to banish DeTess. Counterpoint: he himself acknowledged the perspective change, and gave a reason for it. Result: Not actually that weird.

I’ll also note that I already walked it back some C1 after I realized that we need Banished players for flips; I initially misread Silver Knives as an action that could be taken from within the Village.

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Wonko's response to Alpha's 'claim' contrarily reads less village to me this time around. In our PM he mentioned multiple times that while he's not superb at nailing reads, he excels and enjoys the manipulation aspect of the game, and I could absolutely see e!Wonko jumping on this opportunity to respond in that way. Maybe not an e!case, but I don't really village read it anymore.

I mean, I’ve been saying basically the entire game that I don’t see any particular reason for people to have the amount of trust for me they seem to. That said, when did I say I was good at manipulation? My specialties are mechanics mastery and team logistics. I definitely find intrigue and manipulation fun, but I’ve never felt I was especially good at it. Not awful, sure, but not fantastic either.

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh and the Ash vote was mostly just PoE. I village read most people more than I did him + wondered if he assumed Alpha was "RPing" evil because he had v!Alpha TMI

I’m picking up most of the new jargon just fine, but I’m struggling with “PoE”; can someone explain what it means?

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Wonko the Sane said:

I’m picking up most of the new jargon just fine, but I’m struggling with “PoE”; can someone explain what it means?

Process of Elimination. Basically in the absence of explicit suspicions, one strat is to remove all the people you village lean/read from the equation and vote/shoot through the /shrugs

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

That said, when did I say I was good at manipulation? My specialties are mechanics mastery and team logistics. I definitely find intrigue and manipulation fun, but I’ve never felt I was especially good at it. Not awful, sure, but not fantastic either.

In our PM, which I’m pretty sure I can’t quote directly as per the rules. You cited mechanics and logistics as skills in the same list as manipulation, and it’s definitely treated with the same weight. I’m not sure why you omitted it here while still mentioning the other two.

[Amanuensis he/him]

41 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In our PM, which I’m pretty sure I can’t quote directly as per the rules. You cited mechanics and logistics as skills in the same list as manipulation, and it’s definitely treated with the same weight. I’m not sure why you omitted it here while still mentioning the other two.

I will interject to say that Wonko is one of my stronger village reads, PM stuff non-withstanding, from 3 different posts on C1. I would be particularly surprised if e!Wonko decided to vote v!me for putting him high in my reads without an explanation. Most elims would probably be relieved to see that, I reckon 

ED1T: 

Oi @The Known Novel, it’s C3 now. This is around the time v!you ramps up, yes?

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

That is the one thing giving me pause. But I’m not sure where else to go short of voting into my nulls when my reads list more or less assumes e!Archer with no real confirmation.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In our PM, which I’m pretty sure I can’t quote directly as per the rules. You cited mechanics and logistics as skills in the same list as manipulation, and it’s definitely treated with the same weight. I’m not sure why you omitted it here while still mentioning the other two.

Okay, I reviewed our PM, and realized the confusion. I was saying I was good at manipulating mechanics, not people, though I do see now that my phrasing was ambiguous. I’ve explained more precisely in our PM, where I can quote the relevant text.

[Amanuensis he/him]

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That is the one thing giving me pause. But I’m not sure where else to go short of voting into my nulls when my reads list more or less assumes e!Archer with no real confirmation.

Can you link me to any/all cases for e!Archer, or give me the cliff notes, when you get the chance? Thanks <3

Anyway, back to the ED2T I was doing before this ninja 

Homesteaders

1. Mat
2. Ash
3. TJ
4. Devo
5. Wonko
6. TKN
7. Aman

 Banished

1.  DeTess

Shades

1. Alpha
2. Archer
3. JNV

With 3 Shades, there’s a 45% chance of DeTess’ Silver Knife flipping someone. I think we can safely assume both Alpha and JNV—the NKs—are village, given the 1/3 odds of them getting permanently removed before they may get resurrected. Archer is the only real question mark imo, and I say that as someone who thought his lines of attack (questioning) looked village, so hopefully he’ll be the one to flip and put that to rest.

With 7 of us currently in play—about to be 5, assuming the kill doesn’t get blocked—there’s two scenarios we could be in. 9v-2e or 8v-3e. If no elim has been removed, then either way, tomorrow should be exlo at either 4v-2e or 3v-3e, so we technically have some leeway, but it’s worth noting we’re practically in the endgame already. In a 2e worst case, I believe a successful rez C4 might but is more time, but wouldn’t make a difference in a worst case 3e world.

I don’t know that I’m willing to entertain a 3e world tho, unless the 3rd is a Vanilla DeTess with a Silver Knife, which is a theory I’ve been chewing on in the shade doc. From my PoV, the elims would be very invested in preventing my resurrection, and Tess seemed to push the e!Aman narrative harder than I’d expect a Villager of her caliber. Potentially biased, given its a read based on how they’ve treated my slot, but that’s also part of why I think Archer arguing for me to be resurrected might be a v!Indicator.

That said, I’m operating on a 2 elim world among the current 7. Wonko is probably my strongest v-read—I hope I won’t regret it—followed by TJ, though I found his C2 lacking (as well as his C3 so far). Ash moved up because of him mentioning bad vibes from DeTess’ e!Aman pushes. Mat’s seemed more proactive to me. Which really just leaves Devo and TKN, who imo fit the elim kill profile so far.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

^Can confirm I misread the PM, which caused me to needlessly paranoid harder than I ought to have.

Wonko

...Problem is now, I have nowhere else to go as I don't just wanna pile on Devo :P.

Archer notes will come later; am currently multitasking when I should just not be xD Solution: close this tab.

Also will note that I just thought silver knives were a guaranteed flip, which is too bad.

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also will note that I just thought silver knives were a guaranteed flip, which is too bad.

Hm. Possible it could be and I read the mechanic wrong. @Szeth_Pancakes Can you clarify which is true? Do the Shades need to the trigger the Silver Blade, or does the Silver Blade just straight up kill a Shade?

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis
I’ve been calling it Knife this whole time smh

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm. Possible it could be and I read the mechanic wrong. @Szeth_Pancakes Can you clarify which is true? Do the Shades need to the trigger the Silver Knife, or does the Silver Knife just straight up kill a Shade?

No, I think you're right. I forgot about the part where the shades have a % chance to attack the banished, and just thought it was a shade-kill item that could only be used while banished. It does read as a passive item in the rules to me on another pass.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

@Amanuensis, you describe the Elim kill profile fitting a team of Devo and TKN; that implies you have a theory about why Alpha was the first kill. Can you elaborate on that?

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

58 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I will interject to say that Wonko is one of my stronger village reads, PM stuff non-withstanding, from 3 different posts on C1. I would be particularly surprised if e!Wonko decided to vote v!me for putting him high in my reads without an explanation. Most elims would probably be relieved to see that, I reckon 

ED1T: 

Oi @The Known Novel, it’s C3 now. This is around the time v!you ramps up, yes?

Yes, but I'm not working on a good amount sleep right now, so that might not be too dramatic this game.

I will note that reminding potential!e!me of that is not a very good idea, as I kinda forget about that as an elim.

26 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Which really just leaves Devo and TKN, who imo fit the elim kill profile so far.

I can't speak for Devo, but my kill profile tends to be more control kills. I don't really think low profile/low info kills are that great of a tactic.

[Amanuensis he/him]

34 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

@Amanuensis, you describe the Elim kill profile fitting a team of Devo and TKN; that implies you have a theory about why Alpha was the first kill. Can you elaborate on that?

Essentially, I think it had a few intents. First, Alpha was generally written off as “Too Wolfy To Be Wolf” and thus it was unlikely for a wagon to be formed on him in the near future. Second, that he didn’t produce a lot of content or suspicions, which means the village has less info to work off to narrow suspects. Third, given his propensity for chaos, he wouldn’t be a super appealing C1 rez (I imagine the elims realized their first kill might be as good as a confirmed villager that immediately comes back, so the more chaotic the agent, the less of a waste the effort is / more room they have to work). Combined with the JNV kill, it could be related to a Fourth thing, where at least 1 elim is among the generally trusted or thread controllers, but no one really fits that profile atm

Edited July 18, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Mat he/him]

Do we even have anyone who could be called both generally trusted and a thread controller lol

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do we even have anyone who could be called both generally trusted and a thread controller lol

Maybe Wonko. Kinda Aman but he doesn't really count.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Do we even have anyone who could be called both generally trusted and a thread controller lol

Where’s Kas when you need him? AmIright?

Just now, The Known Novel said:

Maybe Wonko. Kinda Aman but he doesn't really count.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Sounds like something a generally trusted thread controller e!Aman would say.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Where’s Kas when you need him? AmIright?

Not playing a flipless game >>