Long Game 95: The Fire of Ado's Light

[Kasimir he/him]

Scadrial was a different world from Roshar. The highstorm raves were one thing, though discovering that an avatar of Autonomy was present on the craggy world was mildly disturbing. Still, Evgeny reasoned, he'd come to Roshar for the highstorm raves, and to get away from the evil of Shards before the 17th unleashed something they'd long sworn to keep.

The sort of power that corrupted, no matter what you told yourself. No matter your justifications, your promises to make a better world.

The Shards made you think you were doing that. Fragments of a god long dead, a god long better dead, a god that had better not exist, because you couldn't be God, and look upon the world in all its brokenness and suffering, and deem it perfect as it was. And because you couldn't fix the ills of the world, of humankind, and still keep your soul in the bargain.

So Evgeny left. Frost would do as he willed, and the 17th would follow. Tapping and draining Shards, seeking the power for themselves, as though they were any better than Bavadin. He didn't want any of it. 

And then there was Autonomy, on Roshar.

He regarded the Avatar warily. One way or another, you forgot, at your peril, that the avatars were all of Autonomy. Autonomy, of course, had decided it was safer to come to Roshar with a catspaw. Easily disregarded, easily denied. Easily cut off, should the worst happen.

"You're pretty short, for a Shard," Evgeny said. The blue burned his throat, with a faint taste of nuts and a memory thereafter, of honey.

VOCALS said, "Autonomy has not come in the flesh."

"I would hardly expect anything different," Evgeny said. "Our goals are not compatible." 

"No," VOCALS agreed. "They are not."

"Find someone else to coax to your side," Evgeny said, dismissively. "I know better than to have truck with the evil of Shards."

"Well," VOCALS said. "I came for a rave..."

On Scadrian, the music was louder; the steady bassline, the screaming of the electric guitars. The press of the crowd on the smosh pit. 

Easy to lose yourself, Evgeny figured. If only Autonomy hadn't sent yet another dratted avatar here.

Quote

>PLEASANT CHIMING

ANNOUNCEMENT

WE HAVE A MISSING CHILD HERE NAMED PIANO, FOUND ON SCADRIAL, CURRENTLY IN THE CARE OF RAVE SECURITY.

WILL AUTONOMY @ BAVADIN PLEASE PICK UP PIANO UP FROM THE LOST & FOUND SECTION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE?

THANK YOU.

>PLEASANT CHIMING

 

[Mat he/him]

4 hours ago, Walin said:

Cough. I completely forgot to put in an action, and I haven't yet caught up on the thread. I'll do that soon enough, but for now I also have some other stuff to do today so it'll probably be after rollover.

Raising a very big eyebrow at this after you specifically made a big deal about how you were submitting an action.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

what can I say except I told you so

 Anyway: I missed rollover yesterday, so I’m still on Silverlight

(For some reason, I thought it was still at 1.)

I feel like Kas should know better than to mistake new player weirdness (hereafter NPW) for elim behavior. I.e. we’ve specifically discussed it in dead docs and stuff. 

I don’t want to tunnel too hard on him, since when I do that I’m usually wrong, but I think it’s something worth thinking about.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Szeth_Pancakes
there we go jeez

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

what can I say except I told you so

Anyway: I missed rollover yesterday, so I’m still on Silverlight

(For some reason, I thought it was still at 1.)

I feel like Kas should know better than to mistake new player weirdness (hereafter NPW) for elim behavior. I.e. we’ve specifically discussed it in dead docs and stuff. 

I don’t want to tunnel too hard on him, since when I do that I’m usually wrong, but I think it’s something worth thinking about.

I invite you to read through and engage with a detailed study (linked above) I did in LG94 comparing Alpha's playstyle in the preceding MR63 and in his first proper SE LG, LG93. This isolates posts in which Alpha demonstrates a general interest in engaging with the game.

I then invite you to read his posts in QF66 again, and my comments in the dead doc. I distinctly recalled you disagreed because you felt Alpha had played too few games for that to be considered a tell, so if you're approaching from that mindset, then you're fundamentally going to be unsatisfied with any approach that draws on Alpha's playhistory to extrapolate his current alignment. In fact, I'd argue New Player Weirdness is a distinctly poor way of categorising Alpha's playstyle, because he isn't weird in the same way as, for instance, Fae or Fadran are.

I invite you, as well, to read the Elim doc (C1 of LG94), in which Alpha is explicitly advised to cite playstyle change difficulties in response to observations that he was fundamentally more reactive and less interested in solving.

Finally, I invite you to look again at my comments in the most recent cycle, in which I explicitly comment that I'm not comfortable with the level of reactivity/interest from Alpha but would also like to hear him out, hence tagging him, and I was certainly prepared to shift my vote if Alpha said anything else.

I'm used to certain players doing weird things. This is the entire reason I am arguing contra Archer and Araris that they're being lazy and they're not noticing or sufficiently accounting for the fact you have certain play tendencies as a Villager. This results in them not approaching their reads of you correctly; I am more reassured that you want to be proactive and that you are in fact holding to the lines of reasoning that you are.

The problem has never been New Player Weirdness - it's been Alpha's tendency to become more reactive, less interested in proactively engaging with other players and the game when he's Evil. I didn't fully buy being overwhelmed as a reason for that because there's the base layer you can always engage with which is: thread, reads, suspicions, even answering questions another player has asked (I explicitly linked a post in early QF66 where Alpha proactively responds to a distro speculative question Archer has asked - I'm not looking for full-fledged suspicions and reads, but little things like that. The volunteering of his scan D1 was good, but since then, there's been no proactiveness and a lot of apparent thread lurking.)

Failing which, I'm fine being exed or lynched and I explicitly do not want Endowment or Ambition (if Village) to bring me back because that's too much work I didn't sign up for. (P.S. Endowment/Ambition grabbers - consider rezzing Sart and Alpha since we know they're Village.)

I'm still ok with V leaning Szeth for now. I have a couple more reads I feel ok about but will probably sit on them - if I'm dead, they don't matter, and if I'm not dead, I'd rather be able to drop them without tempting a conversion.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

@Kasimir I mean, sure. I just don't think it's as helpful to analyze past games when you're talking about new players, since your data set is limited. Alpha's had one elim game thus far, and this is only like his sixth game overall (and his first Shard game). I agree that being overwhelmed isn't an excuse for those things, but I don't think it's a good enough reason to read him elim. Maybe this is just me projecting my struggles with perfectionism onto someone else, but I know I've been there before as a villager, especially when I was new.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

@Kasimir I mean, sure. I just don't think it's as helpful to analyze past games when you're talking about new players, since your data set is limited. Alpha's had one elim game thus far, and this is only like his sixth game overall (and his first Shard game). I agree that being overwhelmed isn't an excuse for those things, but I don't think it's a good enough reason to read him elim. Maybe this is just me projecting my struggles with perfectionism onto someone else, but I know I've been there before as a villager, especially when I was new.

That's my point though. If you disagree this is an acceptable game method or basis for a read, then of course this is going to be a vacuous vote to you.

Edited to add: My view is that it's applicable - your playhistory isn't extensive, but I'd like to think I'm right about my current read of you. If I'm wrong though, then I'm wrong. It was pretty useful as well to ID V!Bookwyrm in LG91 - I just regret I wasn't on the ball enough to stop that ML from going through. I don't expect it to be correct 100% of the time but that's never a bar we apply to players anyway.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Kasimir

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

That's my point though. If you disagree this is an acceptable game method or basis for a read, then of course this is going to be a vacuous vote to you.

I don't disagree with the method insomuch as I think one elim game is insufficient data for talking about patterns. If Alpha had three, or even two, that would be fine. I just think it's kind of pointless to come at reads that way in this specific case.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I don't disagree with the method insomuch as I think one elim game is insufficient data for talking about patterns. If Alpha had three, or even two, that would be fine. I just think it's kind of pointless to come at reads that way in this specific case.

I mean, you're disagreeing with it fundamentally as a method for approaching reads with a certain amount of game data. I'll note you haven't had a single Elim game since AG8 which is quite a while back, so arguably that isn't applicable to you either.

I think the larger point remains which is that this is the same disagreement we've had in the dead doc: you don't think it should be done, I think it's fine to do it. I don't see the point of rehashing the same arguments we've had about it in the QF66 dead doc, which is in any case a matter of public record. If we don't even disagree about whether the method can be used in this case, then certainly we're not going to agree about whether that vote had an acceptable basis or not.

Edited to add: Should be 'if we don't even agree about...'

Edited June 13, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

9 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

If you want my opinion, I actually feel like voting on a side train is somewhat e!indicative for Araris.

You're right that v!Araris doesn't like switching votes needlessly, but why v!Araris do like that is because he feels strongly about making his vote count and having an impact, and he believes that if you switch your vote a lot it cheapens the pressure. Parking a vote on a side train is superficially similar but is actually the opposite of that.

Not to say that v!Araris never ever goes on a side train, especially if he doesn't like the main options, but. I think overall it points more E than V.

Does that mean you're evil-reading Araris currently?

Also, this is paranoia speaking but also gut-read, miiildly suspicious that Autonomy!Kas has been hoodwinking all of us >> 

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Also, this is paranoia speaking but also gut-read, miiildly suspicious that Autonomy!Kas has been hoodwinking all of us >> 

V!TJ confirmed.

[DeTess she/her]

@Szeth_Pancakeshow many games does it take for NPW to stop being a valid excuse? As you said, Alpha is on their sixth game now, and I personally think that's well beyond the new player grace period, but maybe that's just me.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just under 30 minutes left in the turn for actions.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

6 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@Szeth_Pancakeshow many games does it take for NPW to stop being a valid excuse? As you said, Alpha is on their sixth game now, and I personally think that's well beyond the new player grace period, but maybe that's just me.

Maybe like eight? For a shard game, at least.

[Mat he/him]

I certainly agree with DeTess regarding the grace period, especially given how many people don’t care too much about deeply understanding the rules, but I also don’t see why it matters as Alpha… died and flipped village :P.

I’m increasingly sure of v!Szeth though, fwiw

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

I think three games is sufficient for a mild read. One is an anomaly, two is a coincidence, three is a pattern. Of course, I don’t read off of meta that much besides a 'does this feel right? If no, burn it with fire." I also think the third or forth game is when the new player grace period should be about up.

Is that too harsh?

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Bald Brandon said:

'does this feel right? If no, burn it with fire."

This...

 

This feels...

 

....I want to...

 

BURN THE SICK AND TWISTED IN HEAVEN'S PURIFYING FIRE!

[Kasimir he/him]

Sorry for double-post if double. Wanted to make sure this was there. Will now be good and try to actually keep to minimal solving -.- And full out rave partying.

Just In Case:

• Fifth -> V lean. Defeasible, but inclined to read D2 post unvoting Turtle and offering self for flip as Village. Another factor factors into Fifth V read. If I'm dead, probably two other players are aware of this and it's up to them to decide if they want to share with the class or not. I'm not full Kasing this game so whatever.
   
• Szeth -> V lean. Hard to describe but patterns of reasoning + increased engagement reads sincere and typical of V!Szeth. Disagree with Archer and Araris here - they're applying a standard pattern without context. N2 disagreement corroborated by argument in QF66 doc - I don't think there's agenda there.
   
• Turtle -> very weak V lean. Have a theory. Have described it to maybe one to two players. Again up to them if they want to share with the class. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong /shrug. Has to do with Turtle's D2 Day action. If it wasn't Turtle, you might know who you are, and there's some benefit in claiming it in extremis. IDK. Haven't thought too hard on this. It's Complicated.
   
• JNV -> V lean. Clearly in Village disengagement meta + QF66 demonstrates they aren't particularly interested about exploiting this to benefit from it when Evil (even though it would be lethal.)
   
• Intuitive V on Walin but cannot really support it. No need for Walin to declare that forgot action. Shouldn't feel V but does for that sort of player. Kind of feels dgaf in a Steel sort of way. Lack of artifice/attention to thread narrative -> less alert. Whoever sussed Walin - maybe squint at them.
   
• Mat -> very weak E lean. Feel there's zero paranoia/significant shift from Mat (?) and IDK how that makes me feel. Also makes me feel a disgruntled proto-V on TJ which IDK about. WiM where???? Autonomy maybe???
   
• Aman -> very weak V lean. Like Smosh Pit. Best PM bro.
   
• Ash -> very weak E lean. Angry noises. Much rude. Feels like he wants to shut down the rave entirely smhhhhh  
   
• Xino -> null+, gut wants to V read but IDK I swear I'm V reading everyone right now. V!Xino pretty much did the same thing in LG90 in terms of couching a vote explicitly as self-pres with under four hours to go to rollover. I don't really feel Xino is that in his E meta but he hasn't said enough, so I just want him to spell out his thoughts more for a better read.
   
• TJ -> V-ish, but weak. TJ knows that one of the meta things I look at in his case for Village is paranoia directed at me and we've spent more V games paranoid of each other than not. Weak because once TJ knows this, meta-screwing is possible.

Kind of tired of banging head into Archer wall and <Mat, DeTess, Archer> feels like a hot mess to me right now. In that I actually don't wanna touch it smh. *Angry Kas noises* Oy vey LG94 flashbacks are real.

Think worth poking at Araris, Wiz (especially since the sudden pop-in to mention Mat = Autonomy theory which might have some water), Fadran, STINK, probably anyone else who keeps reading the thread or has signs of life but says little. Expecting disproportionate Elim doc activity compared to actual activity.

Probably complicated by factions and Autonomy being somewhere but that's more work than I want to put in, go figure./

Note: Want to gut V Araris but don't feel alright with that so in nulls. Style of argument re: Szeth feels like how he tried to pass E!Alpha off as Village, but I think Szeth is V, so I think it's more worrisome that it's argument style that seems characteristic of E!Araris. Unsure and haven't bothered to go over Araris's recent playhistory because on vacation. Don't really know if am alright with V!TBB - TBB is typically more helpful by C3, so should be held to it especially since clearly lurking in thread and responding to everything else.

Endowment, Ambition - stand by what I said, prefer not to be rezzed unless you have nothing better to do and even then, I'll probably just do my rave thing unless guilted into helping out the Village, which is always possible. You've been warned.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Night Two is now over! Please stop posting until all PMs are sent out and Day Three is live!

[Ashbringer he/him]

LG95 Day Three: Sing Us A Song

Spoiler

Billy Joel - Piano Man (Official HD Video) - YouTube

(Actual writeup to come tomorrow hopefully but it's been long enough)

 

* * *

PIANO was killed! They were an Avatar!

DrakeMarshall was attacked, but survived!

 

No Shard has left containment!

* * *

Day Three has begun! There will be an execution this cycle. Sorry for the delay.

 

This turn will end on 10:00 PM PDT / 5:00 AM GMT (+1 Day) on June 14th, in ~46 hours. I will be available for D3 and N3 rollover but D4 may have delay issues again, so I'll figure something out for that.

Shard Status:

Spoiler

• Ambition:       CONTAINED
• Autonomy:     BREACHED
• Cultivation:    CONTAINED
• Devotion:       CONTAINED
• Dominion:      CONTAINED
• Endowment:  CONTAINED
• Honor:            CONTAINED
• Invention:       CONTAINED
• Mercy:            CONTAINED
• Odium:           BREACHED
• Preservation: CONTAINED
• Prudence:      CONTAINED
• Ruin:               BREACHED
• Survival:         CONTAINED
• Whimsy:         CONTAINED
• Valor:              CONTAINED

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Ivam the Mad
2. @Kasimir - Evgeny Karamazov 
3. @The Wandering Wizard - The Poet
4. @Fifth Scholar - Dr. Mattithias Gunther
5. @Szeth_Pancakes - Liene
6. @|TJ| - Al
7. @DeTess - Tessa DeLoren
8. @Archer - Oliver Cosmos
9. @JNV - Jai
10. @xinoehp512 - Xorial
11. @The Last Fæ -
12. @DrakeMarshall - Adjunct Professor Uther
13. @Matrim's Dice - Sir Arren Brockett
14. Sart - 17th Shard Researcher
15. @STINK - 
16. @Elandera - Telan
17. @Araris Valerian - 
18. @Walin -  
19. TheAlpha929 - Felt Jr. - 17th Shard Researcher
20. @Channelknight Fadran -
21. @Turtle - Letta Turson
22. VOCALS
23. PIANO - Avatar

Clarifications:

Spoiler

• Anyone actually looking in here or am I pasting this over and over again for nothing?
• You may only pass one Charge of Investiture or one Shard in a Passing action.
• Charges of Investiture (whether Autonomy Charges or other Charges) held by Autonomous Players do not count towards the Autonomous Sudden Death Win Condition.
• Multiple factions can win at the same time if they complete their (Normal or SD) win conditions at the same time. I don't think there's a way to get all 4 main factions to win at the same time, but if you all find one... congratulations?
• Invention's Investment Ability can be used on Avatars, which will grant Invention an Autonomy Charge.
• All actions are limited to once per cycle, unless otherwise noted (Autonomy's Shardic, Whimsy's Shardic, and Researcher returning Shards to Containment).
• Vessel Action and Vessel Shield do not stack. Vessels can "gain" them from other sources, but that only matters if they pass their Shard while they would still have Vessel Action/Vessel Shield from another source.
• Avatars can exist on the same Shardworld as each other.
• Shardworlds get a new Doc each time the player list on that Shardworld changes.
• Avatars and players will be put in the player list for each Shardworld Doc (i.e. you can't pretend you're not there).
• Shardworld presences are not publicized in thread.
• Hoid and Khriss's Conversions take place before Shardic Inheritance from Breaching (or other reasons).
• Consuming Investiture does take actions.
• Charges of Investiture that are used then Roleblocked are lost, as are Charges of Investiture used on a Roleblocked Shardworld action.
• Hoid and Khriss do not lose Conversion Charges on Roleblocked or failed conversions.
• In the event that Hoid and Khriss target the same player for conversion, both conversions fail.
• The only abilities that contribute to Shardic Breaching are Researcher Siphons, Khriss's double-Siphon, and Hoid's Sabotage.
• Returned keep the alignment and win condition they died with when they Return.
• Valor Charges cannot be used on yourself.
• Worldhopping is only a Day action.
• Two players using actions to create 1-on-1 PMs with each other will consume both Charges/actions/etc and only create 1 PM.
• Avatars only count as players for the Autonomous win condition, not for other factions' win conditions.
• Avatars in Shardworlds and Ambition in the Cognitive Realm should speak in bold - other players should not (a bit for emphasis is okay, just don't write entire sentences).
• You cannot create PMs with Avatars.
• You cannot cut players in half.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Ashbringer

[Kasimir he/him]

Interesting.

Presuming:

• Braize
• Odium charges?
• V!Fifth credences growing.
• Ruin?
• Odium

@Ashbringer Are we told if a Shard in containment is splintered?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

 

@Ashbringer Are we told if a Shard in containment is splintered?

Yep, any time a Shard changes state it'll be announced in the writeup (Breached, Contained, Splintered, Invested in a Shardworld, Fused, or the undoing of any of those).

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

• TJ -> V-ish, but weak. TJ knows that one of the meta things I look at in his case for Village is paranoia directed at me and we've spent more V games paranoid of each other than not. Weak because once TJ knows this, meta-screwing is possible.

its not unfounded smh. what better way to throw us off the trail than claiming that autonomy is "stalking" you? and its the way youve repeated that stalking thing like 4-5 times iirc, seems sorta performative, i feel like theres something there >>

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

• Braize

personal opinion, but i dont think any villager should spend 3 charges to kill a player, considering autonomys sudden death wincon.

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

• V!Fifth credences growing.

why?

[Kasimir he/him]

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Yep, any time a Shard changes state it'll be announced in the writeup (Breached, Contained, Splintered, Invested in a Shardworld, Fused, or the undoing of any of those).

Oy vey LG94 flashbacks for real. Puzzle solving time then.

Well, let's spell out some inferences then.

1. Avatar could've been hit by Odium charge (doesn't carry charges, therefore can be killed by one), or by Odium or by Ruin. 

2. Drake is a more interesting hit. Not really sure how he survived. Feels like it can't be a Vessel Shield (perm/temp) deal - if he got hit by Ruin or Odium, then it'd crunch right through that. But it's hard thinking of protections that aren't Vessel Shield. Guess there's a chance it was a Braize attack?

Asked about Odium because I kind of feel it'd be weird if the Odium holder is doing nothing. My read is the Avatar was probably hit by Odium.

[DeTess she/her]

To save everyone some speculation, I started with an Odium charge and used it to shoot the avatar.

Edited June 13, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

its not unfounded smh. what better way to throw us off the trail than claiming that autonomy is "stalking" you? and its the way youve repeated that stalking thing like 4-5 times iirc, seems sorta performative, i feel like theres something there >>

Uh, yeah, it's addressed to Autonomy because piano confirmed in doc they were following me from world to world, and I thought it was funny. You still seem to think that E!me, when given the chance to coast through on low activity in a chill game with players like Szeth willing to let me have my chill game for real would decide to softVillage for crems and giggles? No one was even seriously putting Autonomy on the radar and you can see from the last two cycles this Village doesn't have its crem together. Pretty easy to just chill and do nothing.

IDK bro, you've played E me before (MR62) and despite E me being unwilling to get involved and hating the situation, you seem to want to think I'd willingly run into that when given an easy out by the Village. 

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

personal opinion, but i dont think any villager should spend 3 charges to kill a player, considering autonomys sudden death wincon.

But why would an Elim go to Braize when this drastically tanks their team's chances of getting a Shard? Braize is useless to Hoid, and Khriss probably favours the conversion or the siphon.

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

why?

Why not?

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, DeTess said:

To save everyone some speculation, I started with an Odium charge and used ot to shoot the avatar.

Ah, cheers.

Edited to add 2:

@|TJ| - Like it or not, I think the issue you have to explain if you think it isn't Braize, knowing that Honor isn't released, is: 

• If it's Odium or Ruin hit, it'd crunch through Vessel Shield. It requires an Honor protect, but Honor protects aren't self-protects. So do we have an Honor claimant?
• If it's Vessel Shield (temp or perm) then it has to be a Braize hit. 
• It could be an Odium charge but Odium charge attacks aren't written up unless they're like a normal kill, in which case this entails that for some reason, Drake has zero charges, not even his starting charge, and I think Alpha scanned him N0, yeah?

So like...how do you square that?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Kasimir