Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I got the Silver Dust by the way, so Aman did have it.

Figures. I expect he wouldn't have left home without it.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Archer said:

Why is that relevant?/why claim?

 

I don’t know. It’s useless to me unless someone passes me a crossbow from what I can tell.

[Mat he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Your very first reaction on D2 was to assume I'd been attacked and to rule it out as a WGG. Why? (I'm asking about your thought process at that point.)

It's a very odd assumption to make and I'm trying to parse it:

If I had been protected, the Elim who attacked me should've been dead or driven insane unless they had a confluence of Iron Will and protection. On the one hand, it's uncomfortably close in that Aman likely had protection and had Iron Will, so would have been immune. But it seems a pretty reflexive question and so I like it, given we now know what had happened.

It's like you said earlier-- I saw an insane Kas, no kill, and I remembered Broken Survivors before I remembered the retaliatory lurch mechanic. There wasn't really much of a thought process, just some instant assumptions.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Just at this point where TKN's frustrations at everyone on focusing on Mat D1, the annoyance feels genuine. 

I think I'm living proof that one can be both elim and annoyed

There was one more post I wanted to quote something from but now I can't find it. Oh well :P.

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

Why is that relevant?/why claim?

Given it's one of the pieces of protection the Elims started with, be nice to know if it ended up back in their hands, or is gonna get lost. Be interesting to see who pushes Araris, and who hops trains if they're interested in it. Wrath is really something that the Elims disproportionately worry about next to the Village. Good to have an eye on it.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It's like you said earlier-- I saw an insane Kas, no kill, and I remembered Broken Survivors before I remembered the retaliatory lurch mechanic. There wasn't really much of a thought process, just some instant assumptions.

Yeah I was kinda thinking that came out from a more Village perspective but again, that's because I kept forgetting it and re-learning it from my questions to Elan about the rules. 

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

There was one more post I wanted to quote something from but now I can't find it. Oh well :P.

Is it the one asking why E!you don't just fakeclaim SE because it gets everyone off Aman's back  

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is it the one asking why E!you don't just fakeclaim SE because it gets everyone off Aman's back  

I don’t think so, no  That would’ve been fun, though.

[Archer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Given it's one of the pieces of protection the Elims started with, be nice to know if it ended up back in their hands, or is gonna get lost. Be interesting to see who pushes Araris, and who hops trains if they're interested in it. Wrath is really something that the Elims disproportionately worry about next to the Village. Good to have an eye on it.

Sorry I just got to the discussion of why it was significant 

Reads:

-Devo: definitely village for leading to Aman’s death / neutrals don’t exist, right?

-Kas: definitely village for confirmed being NKed N1

-Mat: strong village for being Aman’s vote target D1

>check if defense of DeTess

-Fae: weak village for same role as Aman, wild behavior

-Illwei: weak village for pinging everyone to make odds of VITCing close Aman vote lower. Scratch that, unclear it would have mattered

-DeTess: weak elim for halfhearted voting of Aman

JNV: 100% evil for invoking math

Follow up: what was TJ’s Aman progression – Kas alludes to it, can’t find it

 

>figure out if TKN change of mind mid post on Aman vote is village or not

>Illwei not bussing

>Aman didn’t vote – knew he’d die, trust nothing, Ash

 

Fae, why claim? DeTess, why the hesitance? Illwei, why no vote on Aman? Alv, why VITC? TJ, what was your Aman progression? TKN what convinced you to vote? Devo good job, Kas good job on the followup

 

that's what I got for now. I'm caught up now but I'm not in a competent headspace. There was a lot of hockey yesterday 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

There was a lot of hockey yesterday 

Was it good hockey? Did it spark joy?

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Fae, why claim? DeTess, why the hesitance?

Because it was Aman, and with the situation as it was, Devo roleblocking them didn't guarantee they were actually the killer (could have been an SE instead, though that required a couple more moving parts). My tired head also thought Kas had said something about checking their alignment another way, but once that was made clear to not be viable I put my vote down because we needed to resolve the situation in one way or another.

[Mat he/him]

Oh, I remember! xD It was a comment on everyone snap reading Fae for claiming— my feel is that having the new player claim the same thing Aman was fake claiming is an Aman move. I think I agree it’s village leaning but I’d be wary of a clear there. New player derp clears only go so far, imo.

[Archer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Was it good hockey? Did it spark joy?

A township near me had a power outage scheduled for maintenance and there was such an uproar that they had to cancel it so people could watch the game. Good thing too since the Leafs won their first playoff series in 19 years. Then the Oilers won their round too. I got no sleep. 10 out of 10, I recommend 

Just now, DeTess said:

Because it was Aman, and with the situation as it was, Devo roleblocking them didn't guarantee they were actually the killer (could have been an SE instead, though that required a couple more moving parts). My tired head also thought Kas had said something about checking their alignment another way, but once that was made clear to not be viable I put my vote down because we needed to resolve the situation in one way or another.

I relate to that mindset. Full pass, you're village again

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh, I remember! xD It was a comment on everyone snap reading Fae for claiming— my feel is that having the new player claim the same thing Aman was fake claiming is an Aman move. I think I agree it’s village leaning but I’d be wary of a clear there. New player derp clears only go so far, imo.

that changes my read of that. Fake claim no beuno 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh, I remember! xD It was a comment on everyone snap reading Fae for claiming— my feel is that having the new player claim the same thing Aman was fake claiming is an Aman move. I think I agree it’s village leaning but I’d be wary of a clear there. New player derp clears only go so far, imo.

I mean, I'll give you this: it'd add plausibility to the fakeclaim from Aman because no one knows who anything is being passed from.

Edited to add:

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

A township near me had a power outage scheduled for maintenance and there was such an uproar that they had to cancel it so people could watch the game. Good thing too since the Leafs won their first playoff series in 19 years. Then the Oilers won their round too. I got no sleep. 10 out of 10, I recommend 

Then who cares, it was worth it, anyway you just missed some True Crime Serials and you didn't get lynched! It's all good!

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[JNV]

Amanuensis posts by turn

D1 existence post says voice has no inherent side bias more voice commentary vote count and poke banter snap vote on Aloha banter vote count more banter more banter excuse sown lack of motivation as mix of no gambit opps and writing drive lampshades jumping on Kasimirs reads as a failsafe notes possible evilness team of Novel and Aloha banter notes possible Ashbringer defense of Aloha banter banter says deTess implied as counterwagon implicating Matrim and Sart with Archer and Aloha sa subsiduaries with want for Matrim then elaborates psecifically Sart acting to defend Archer or Aloha or Matrim doing the same so not evil together banter self vote then votes Matrim definition banter null read on Araris with better null for TJ and worse null for Archer defends Araris when pressed banter Matrim as final vote vote count question

Vote count from D1

Quote

DeTess (4) - Archer, Sart, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer
Matrim's Dice (4) - Amanuensis, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity
Archer (3) - Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|
The Last Fae (1) - The Last Fae
Steeldancer (1) - 
Amanuensis (0) - Kasimir

So from this I think we can solidly conclude village Matrim like Id already thought that from the way it shook out but yeah they chained a lot of thoughts around Aloha being evil like the Ashbringer subsidiary the Novel chain  the Sart and Matrim accusations so thinking slightly better of Aloha 

N1 banter Archer looks bad off that DeTess fine 

Second time theyve given DeTess a village read first time used as spring board to attack lots of other people this time again to implicate Archer 

D2 banter banter banter says less active cause no flip means no motivation ask for reminder banter vote count reads bucket relatively consistent off their posts from before with no reasoning grr ish responses yet another bit of suspicion on Sart and heres where the block claim comes out jumps to shade expert theory  says 2 3 shade experts village side plus larger evil team banter claim Thief with silver dust apparently thought Matrim was shade expert banter doesnt read Matrim good considers Alvron good vibes was roleblocked still asserting shade expert theory math thoughts shades TJ evil if D1 was all V so after Archer  banter new reads explains Ashbringer and Fae reads plus vote count more Matrim shade likes Illwei banter keeps going on the Matrim thoughts edited lamenting death slep

Sart looks better off this um there is a thought about why a teammate didnt just claim shade expert cause like extra life doesnt get to say attacked and survived or anything so if they go insane they just say oop lost extra life or if not they just live forever off the oh evils odnt want to kill me cause of my extra life sorta thoughts especially since Amanuensis kept going on about shade expert theories and stuff like it couldve worked but maybe like they considered Amnauensis burned and had other alternatives for kills without dying to shades 

So yeah thats my thoughts my brains saying someone in the tangled mess of post Aloha suspicion is probably evil but not entirely sure who there wasnt a  ton of meaningful interaction with people beyond questions so yeah Matrim Devotary good Aloha is like I mean they could have set up evil Aloha as a centerpiece in a cascading wave of misvotes but probably good Aloha  Sart also here but I dont really remember anything Sart did so Ill have to look back again um my brain is rioting against DeTess for some reason but honestly it makes more sense if they use a villager as a springboard for suspicion than an evil they were wierdly focused on Ashbringer for some reason I think my brains run out of steam Im just going to post this Im tired 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

K. Gonna do my best to get what analysis I can out, just in case. Running into some hard stamina limits here. Was completely wiped after a single AoE round with Wyrm, that sort of thing. I don't know what I have the strength for, but let's take things one step at a time.

Walking wounded here, wcyd >>

High voting cycle. Filled my credences as highlights. Note I haven't really re-read the cycle yet, I haven't had the energy to but commit to doing so after a nap.

Thoughts:

• Do not particularly believe Aman train was clean. Believe Aman was not lying about the Silver Dust, on the off-chance it did buy him a Turn, but also because it makes sense. There's no point in having an Iron Will Cultist make a kill unless he did also have it. That being said, there's the world in which that team has an E!Shade Expert. But I sort of doubt it for the moment - too bonkers.
   
• Demoting Sart at popular insistence - still do not believe Sart is Evil but notice that for all Sart agitated about finding a confirmed Elim if WF outed self, did not bother to vote for Aman. Of all people, @Sart should understand importance of Village control if Aman really had Silver Dust. Feels 
   
• I actually have an improved read on Ash because Ash caught an Elim slip from Aman near the end. Gives me similar vibes to the MR he oneshot E!TKN and then Drake and I 2v1ed E!Archer but I don't understand why @Ashbringer didn't vote Aman.
   
• The last I can see, Archer was on-Shard somewhere around an hour and fifty minutes pre-Rollovet. Even if we handwave that, it matches with my hazy impressions of the EoD that he wasn't on after Devo's reveal and everything escalated. I don't feel it's really possible to read into this one way or another.
   
• @The Known Novel - Why say you were staying out of it then changed your mind? Mind walking me through your thought process?
   
• <TKN, Mat, Araris, TJ> are my effective set of suspects for Elims on the Aman train. Inb4 it's all of them tbh. (I think there's something else to consider: we either expect the Aman train to be full of Elims or not. If it isn't, we have to accept he likely didn't have a protective item or they chose to give it up - the former points towards them potentially having an E!SE. Likely answer will be one of degrees, but even so - this is the fundamental trade-off at stake.)
   
• This line from TJ makes me feel uncomfortable and I don't know why.
     
• Sorry I was gonna say more stuff here but may need to come back to it. Gonna be sick. Just posting for now so I don't have to accidentally lose this.
   

Any chance you gonna before I die?  

Edited to add:

@|TJ| - Bhai, your views on Ash?

 

26 minutes ago, Archer said:

Sorry I just got to the discussion of why it was significant 

Reads:

-Devo: definitely village for leading to Aman’s death / neutrals don’t exist, right?

-Kas: definitely village for confirmed being NKed N1

-Mat: strong village for being Aman’s vote target D1

>check if defense of DeTess

-Fae: weak village for same role as Aman, wild behavior

-Illwei: weak village for pinging everyone to make odds of VITCing close Aman vote lower. Scratch that, unclear it would have mattered

-DeTess: weak elim for halfhearted voting of Aman

JNV: 100% evil for invoking math

Follow up: what was TJ’s Aman progression – Kas alludes to it, can’t find it

 

>figure out if TKN change of mind mid post on Aman vote is village or not

>Illwei not bussing

>Aman didn’t vote – knew he’d die, trust nothing, Ash

 

Fae, why claim? DeTess, why the hesitance? Illwei, why no vote on Aman? Alv, why VITC? TJ, what was your Aman progression? TKN what convinced you to vote? Devo good job, Kas good job on the followup

 

that's what I got for now. I'm caught up now but I'm not in a competent headspace. There was a lot of hockey yesterday 

Going into that post, I was like, "oh, Aman probably needs to die to figure out anything, but I also want Mat to die, oh no, whatever shall I do," then I realized that Mat was mostly out of the running, so I decided to go on Aman to maybe stop any VitC shenanigans. If I could've voted two people I would have voted Mat and Aman and been done with it.

[Tea Leaf]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

-Fae: weak village for same role as Aman, wild behavior

 

Wild? Me, really?

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Fae, why claim?

Dead honesty so I don't end up honestly dead.

56 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Oh, I remember! xD It was a comment on everyone snap reading Fae for claiming— my feel is that having the new player claim the same thing Aman was fake claiming is an Aman move. I think I agree it’s village leaning but I’d be wary of a clear there. New player derp clears only go so far, imo.

I didn't catch Aman's claim. So my bad about being the same as their claim.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Demoting Sart at popular insistence - still do not believe Sart is Evil but notice that for all Sart agitated about finding a confirmed Elim if WF outed self, did not bother to vote for Aman. Of all people, Sart should understand importance of Village control if Aman really had Silver Dust. Feels 

Given that Araris claims Aman did have silver dust, it's more likely that elims would join the train hoping to recover it. I'd even give village points to people who were around after my claim and didn't vote for Aman.

I can see why the elims would be hesitant to fake-claim shade expert if they were worried that two such villagers seemed unlikely, but if e!Mat had claimed that, both he and Aman would have lived for a while. Aman's vote for Mat D1 put him into consideration for the exe that led to him losing a life which could have been used against shades. Not currently suspicious of Mat then.

Depending on how seriously Aman was claiming thief, Fae's claim looks good. If Aman had expected to live long enough to 'prove' his role, he'd have needed an elim thief on his team to actually steal items, and if that's Fae there's no reason for her to claim. If Aman always knew he'd be exed (which is likely), Fae's claim is less meaningful. (I think I'm confusing myself here.)

[Mat he/him]

44 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

I didn't catch Aman's claim. So my bad about being the same as their claim.

Are you saying your claim would have been different had you seen Aman’s?

[Tea Leaf]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Are you saying your claim would have been different had you seen Aman’s?

Nope, just would have waited so as to remove any potential ties to their statement.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Given that Araris claims Aman did have silver dust, it's more likely that elims would join the train hoping to recover it. I'd even give village points to people who were around after my claim and didn't vote for Aman.

I don't disagree, but then it's complicated by certain popular suspicions like Archer who simply wasn't there.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can see why the elims would be hesitant to fake-claim shade expert if they were worried that two such villagers seemed unlikely, but if e!Mat had claimed that, both he and Aman would have lived for a while. Aman's vote for Mat D1 put him into consideration for the exe that led to him losing a life which could have been used against shades. Not currently suspicious of Mat then.

Yeah.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

if that's Fae there's no reason for her to claim

Does that stop her?

I ask this in all seriousness. I think in some situations, "No reason to do X" stops a player from doing X. I'm not sure this is one of them.

Edited to add:

Like the situation I was thinking of - E!Turtle claiming Fenweed Sap and handing it over. Zero reason to. Did it anyway, didn't stop them.

Edited to add 2:

I'd add there's a layer of IKYK complicated by Aman obviously deliberately choosing to announce the silver dust and drawing attention to it, which raises questions about whether the team knew and some of them held off (seems reasonable.) I don't feel they'd all expose themselves just to get it back, and I think that it's very likely Elan gave them a bit of redundancy but not too much.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[Sart he/him]

Obviously this clears Kasimir and Devotary, barring extreme shenanigans. I'd lightly clear Illwei, Matrim's Dice, and DeTess. I want to take a closer look at Archer, as they were the third candidate up for Day 1, but managed to wiggle out of it.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Quiet.

8 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Combination of a chain of thought along with the fact that I don't have many suspects. I suspect Archer, Ash voted to protect him. Plus Ash feels like he's in the Dingo meta. And combine that with lack of other suspects - Null Minus on Araris, Sart. Null/ IDK on Alvron, Alpha, JNV, Fae (I hear your argument about teammates allowing/not allowing but tbh, most of the time, new elim players don't send posts to be proof-read and coaching is rare as well). Null Plus on Mat, TKN, Steel (Sorry, I cannot confidentally read low-activity players' meta like you do). Mild/Moderate plus on Illwei, deTess. Strong plus - Kas, Devotary. *

I'm just going to note that Dingo!Ash - meaning actual AG8 Dingo - didn't post OOC or game related things at all for what, 4 cycles. I've been trying to avoid that in past games. I'm still inactive, I don't dispute that, but I'm trying to pay attention and add things if I see them. That way I'm actually doing things for people to latch onto, and I remember that the game is a game and not an RP submission.

Has Archer done anything to tie himself to me? Or is it just that I voted DeTess?

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I liked Ash catching Aman's Elim slip when Aman suddenly said Devo was probably WF at the end. But he didn't do anything about it. And I still feel that Ash's early vote on Alv just as easily fits the perspective of an Elim looking for a roleblocker who might be able to hit Aman putting in the NK. The story of Alv's accuracy as the Tehlin in MR29 is legendary. Pretty much a whole bunch of players would C1 me: you, Araris, Illwei, Archer, Mat (!!!), Steel, TKN, Ash...

And sadly, apparently, Aman  </3 (j/k I've C1ed him too, fair's fair.)

At this point, we'd be better off listing the players who wouldn't C1 me: <Alv, Devo, JNV.> Wow y'all monsters. I'm with them.

Not only does Ash pick someone not on the first list, but he picks the guy with the roleblocker and vig rep?  That's kind of weird to me. But part of me is also trying to work out how that Elim team must be trying to respond. Clearly no one wanted to defend Aman, but the fact that I mentioned that survivors of attacks aren't told they survived meant there was a whole world of possibility open, and in the 'was attacked and survived world', Aman gets away scot-free. Does Ash's vote fit with that? I genuinely DK man.

Legends are told, but told infrequent. And I did not play in MR29

It sounds somewhat familiar in retrospect, though. Or some story of the Gods of Luck and Chance guiding Alv during a KKC game. But also, I don't think I've actually faced off against an Elim Alvron, or if I have it's been a while. I could see them being threatening, which is partially what I was looking for. 

Also for pointing Aman's slip... I think you do me too much credit. I noticed, and thought it could be a slip, but I'm also known myself to hedge statements that probably don't need hedging. I could see myself doing that by mistake, so it just added to a note of strange things. Between that and trying to write an essay (or putting off writing that essay) I didn't change much through rollover. Plus Alv basically said "I wouldn't do that" and that was it.

There's probably more (this is just the first page, after all) but trying to sort through what I'm doing now is better than being a discussion black hole until the Elims have thread control again.

[Illwei]

Araris
Fae
Steel
TheAlpha
TKN
Alvron
Archer
Ash
TJ

frankly embarrassing that this is all i have (PoE) but I suppose it's fine because I can pretend we're on day 1 tomorrow again practically.

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Araris
Fae
Steel
TheAlpha
TKN
Alvron
Archer
Ash
TJ

frankly embarrassing that this is all i have (PoE) but I suppose it's fine because I can pretend we're on day 1 tomorrow again practically.

What do you have going for Sart? I still want to V!read him but feel a bit less confident at this juncture.

Edited to add:

Ok I really tried to force myself to finish updating my reads for the Night as usual just in case but in all honesty I'm doing worse health-wise so. I'll see how far I can get. 

 - Kas (I'm Seraphimon!)

 - Devo

- JNV, Sart, DeTess, Steel, Illwei

 - Araris???, Mat, Aloha???

 - Tbh everyone else I'm sorry I can't do this right now.

- Aman  /sad Patamon noises

Yeah sorry. That's it for me.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

@Kasimir if you’re able can you briefly explain why JNV is so high?

[Ashbringer he/him]

Spoiler

Presumably because JNV would be very unlikely to shoot Kas N1.

 

[Mat he/him]

Dunno how much stock I put into that given an elim team consists of more than one elim and Aman was the elim that actually put in the kill :P.