Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Tea Leaf]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

What does rolexe mean?

Role Exe? Dunno, maybe taking away of a role, exe from a role.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, TheAlpha929 said:

What does rolexe mean?

Killing a player purely on the basis of the role they have.

Role-exes can be done well, given certain constraints. Specifically, known aspects of the distro (and balance) can suggest that certain roles must be Evil, and help the Village to narrow down a pool of likely suspects.

IMO the main guidelines for a good role-exe tend to be:

A. Have decent (if not near to full) sight of the distro
B. Based as well on suspicions

Because the games are meant to be balanced, knowing aspects of the distro may suggest others. If you think about LG93, it's difficult for Cord to be Evil because there's not enough 'padding' (extra lives, protects) to deal with the Elims having additional kills.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you. Suppose E!SB!Mat or even E!SE!Mat. In that world, how do you see the D1 voting panning out, resulting in Mat's getting exed? You commented on this:

Do you still consider Archer to be more likely Evil than DeTess or Mat?

E!Mat feels safe until my vote and isn't willing to switch to DeTess after saying that he doesn't think she's evil, counting on being safe after surviving a three way tie. I still think Archer's more evil though.

I don't like Sart being so convinced that a white fox claiming gets a free kill on an elim and a confirmed villager. That reads like he already knows whether the blocked kill was a white fox roleblock or a shade expert protect. However, e!Sart would have to either backtrack abruptly if a white fox claim didn't pan out or be 100% willing to sacrifice a teammate depending on scenario. I can see the attempted killer being written off in the latter case. Overall read this as suspicious unless he claims responsibility for the lack of kill.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm confused about a lot of what you're saying. You seem to want to vote for me, but maybe feel that doing that twice in a row isn't a good look? Then you're sticking with a vote on Mat despite that change in information (worth noting that Mat voted for me), so it's essentially just a Rolexe. But if Mat is evil, why didn't they self pres onto DeTess? Better yet, get a teammate to VitC onto me to give them a 1/3 chance of getting exed instead of 1/2 in the event of someone like Kas doing what they did. Actually they wouldn't have known my vote was moving in the post where they committed to staying put because they ninjad me. 

Then there's this not CC thing. Why would you word it like that - its presenting going after low profile folk, but not horribly inactive, as only being as good as a CC. I don't have a lot of elim suspects outside of the mid and low profile tiers, so I find this suspicious. It might not be a productive route of inquiry, but entirely discounting putting any pressure on them seems convenient if say two elims are in that group, which might explain the lack of swings yesterday. 

It’s more that I don’t think I have convincing reasons to get anyone else to vote for you. But you are definitely in the pool of ~10 players that I have no qualms about exeing.

My wording was just in contrast to my earlier post.

It’s true that a lack of e!Voice users could just be caused by inactivity, which would point to those folks. And that opens another can of worms in that the elims might have just failed to send in a kill on accident. I don’t think that’s as likely as a RB though.

[Alvron]

2 hours ago, The Last Fæ said:

Who was shot with a crossbow, can I have one, everyone pool your crossbows with me! Or better yet, give me the things that make you go insane (Like I need them).

Hmm, maybe Kas wasn't the only one to go insane.  This sounds so much like me that I'm questioning if I have another account I'm not aware of.
If this is future Alv trying to contact me, then you should know the passwords.  

[Kasimir he/him]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

E!Mat feels safe until my vote and isn't willing to switch to DeTess after saying that he doesn't think she's evil, counting on being safe after surviving a three way tie. I still think Archer's more evil though.

Do you think this can be satisfactorily explained by hypothesising he would be willing to have voted in the next two minutes if Archer hadn't beaten him to it? Not bothering to timestamp bot this, but the difference between his post and Archer's is a matter of seconds here.

Genuinely asking as my main reason for being okay with FAFO about Mat is that I'm still getting extremely mixed vibes from him no matter how many times I re-read, to the point I just can't sustain a coherent, singular read, but I agree I struggle with making sense of D1 EoD behaviour in light of the E!SB!Mat or even E!SE!Mat hypothesis.

Why with regard to Archer? That DeTess vote?

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't like Sart being so convinced that a white fox claiming gets a free kill on an elim and a confirmed villager. That reads like he already knows whether the blocked kill was a white fox roleblock or a shade expert protect. However, e!Sart would have to either backtrack abruptly if a white fox claim didn't pan out or be 100% willing to sacrifice a teammate depending on scenario. I can see the attempted killer being written off in the latter case. Overall read this as suspicious unless he claims responsibility for the lack of kill.

I did ask: players are informed of roleblocks but not redirects, which is why I'd tried to be a bit coy at the start, knowing that the Elims were likely to have a better picture of wtf was going on, and then me, and then probably everyone else making assumptions, but I'm struggling and failing to map out any TMI, probably because I still don't know myself, and just gave up early in interests of overall clarity.

If White Fox rb and potential post-Rollovet claim, could expect to see aggressive distancing from Elims pre-that, maybe. Though as I'm typing, it's four hours past and no word.

It's odd though: I really dislike Sart's conviction that a raw role lynch without any appeal to suspicions at all in the SBs will net us an Elim because that's how you force your SEs to out themselves or get gunned down in the process, which feels more like an Elim mindset since the Elims would probably like to not have to deal with SE complications at all.

At the same time, I feel reassured because as much as it #feelsbad to admit this, my rule of thumb has continued to hold across games: if I think this is kayana and weird, it's V!Sart. When I read his posts and vibe with them, he's E!Sart. Even true when I GM him. So the fact I'm very thrown makes me feel reassured in a V!read of Sart, and I don't know how this is defensible but there I go. I think V!Sart and V!me just exist at perpendiculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add:

@Alvron: Any help from the Gods of Luck and Chance? I had a bad run last game so my Sacred Coin hasn't yet been reconsecrated in Elim blood  

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir
Extra space

[DeTess she/her]

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

 

@DeTess What do you think about the possiblity that as an Elim TKN is trying to focus on one person as to not have to focus on other villagers/other teammates and potentially out them should he flip?

Not impossible, but it's a bit too obvious? Focusing on one person like that stands out. I'd expect an elim to instead give a lot of opinions, but be very superficial about it, so that people can't really read too much into it. So more like what Ashbringer has been doing.

10 hours ago, Archer said:

Anyway. I was wondering what you were going on about. How do you feel about Devo trying to egg Mat into voting on you D1? 

I don't quite remember that happening, so let me reread everything devotary has done so far.

Right, it does feel a bit odd. Actually, more than a bit. Devotary kinda frames it like a test to see how willing mat was to vote for me in self defense, but such a test seems pointless, as mat doing a vote in self defense there wouldn't at all be alignment indicative. I wouldn't find it odd for a villager to vote in self defense for the first cycle even if it is against someone they don't really suspect, as C1 the only person you really can be sure of is yourself. It almost feels like devotary was setting mat up there for failure, planning to use them switching in self defense as a reason to push for the execution C2.

I also agree with Kas that it seems odd how little devotary has talked about people as opposed to mechanics, though their last post does seem to correct that a little (though that was after pressure was being put on them over their lack of reads). For now I'm reading devotary as leaning elim.

I have some time for one more person to go over, going form the top and skipping over Mat and Archer for now, it's Araris. So they've been a lot quieter early on than the previous game, but I get how feeling bad can sap your enthusiasm and energy for a game. I don't like the way they've been looking at VitC. Them pre-emptively stating they'll look at and suspect any votes made that way feels like it might be intended to discourage villagers from using it, which in turn would give the elims one less thing to worry about. For the rest I'm not really getting elim vibes from Araris, they do seem to be looking into solving the game. I guess for now my read is just south of neutral, but feel less suspicious of Araris then Ashbringer or Devotary.

For now I'm putting my vote on Devotary, as looking back to what they did D1 to test mat really does feel off.

[Kasimir he/him]

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

It’s more that I don’t think I have convincing reasons to get anyone else to vote for you. But you are definitely in the pool of ~10 players that I have no qualms about exeing.

My wording was just in contrast to my earlier post.

It’s true that a lack of e!Voice users could just be caused by inactivity, which would point to those folks. And that opens another can of worms in that the elims might have just failed to send in a kill on accident. I don’t think that’s as likely as a RB though.

Curious about your assessment of the odds of self-Soothe Voice orders?

Edited to add:

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

Right, it does feel a bit odd. Actually, more than a bit. Devotary kinda frames it like a test to see how willing mat was to vote for me in self defense, but such a test seems pointless, as mat doing a vote in self defense there wouldn't at all be alignment indicative. I wouldn't find it odd for a villager to vote in self defense for the first cycle even if it is against someone they don't really suspect, as C1 the only person you really can be sure of is yourself. It almost feels like devotary was setting mat up there for failure, planning to use them switching in self defense as a reason to push for the execution C2.

In this scenario, do you see her as teamed with anyone in this triad?

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In this scenario, do you see her as teamed with anyone in this triad?

Hmmm. Archer is a possibility as this move could be an indirect defense of them, though they're also the one that prodded me to reexamine what went down there. Definitely not teamed up with Mat.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, DeTess said:

Hmmm. Archer is a possibility as this move could be an indirect defense of them, though they're also the one that prodded me to reexamine what went down there. Definitely not teamed up with Mat.

Any reason why not for Mat? Agreed her vote intuitively needlessly endangers Mat, but self-pres was pretty possible over that. Feels like a risk threshold deal. Also partly because your critique of her reasoning makes sense and probably articulates why I felt ? at that time, but I'm also recalling a game where I think an Elim was read as Village by some for refusing to self-pres onto their Village reads into a tie. Taking a closer look when I have the time and energy as I don't think this one matters as much as direct analysis, so not at the top of my priority list.

---

Alright. The way I see it, I'm going to tentatively lump <Devo, Archer, Mat, DeTess> into high effort categories. That is, I'd probably need to do a deeper dive to be able to solidfy how I currently feel about them, and I don't really have the health for that right now. I'm going to go medicate, rest, and try to get it done by EoD/EoC, and probably close-read as well.

I'll offer my thoughts about the high effort category first, as they currently stand:

• Archer's posts are often weird to me. I've expressed this previously, that I have a tendency to gun for V!Archer because I don't understand what he's doing and think it's kayana. I sort of like the elasticity of his Mat vote because that feels more like a stubborn Villager with a bone than an Elim, who basically had easier targets. Also captured I think by Archer's lack of a transition off TKN. I'll balance this with the fact his distro brawl with DeTess IMO emerges from a more Elim perspective, and that I'm still trying to understand the move off Mat.
   
• Devo - the main problem with Devo in a nutshell is I thought I understood the differences between her V and E play, but there's two complications here: first, the fact that as she pointed out, that she's been recently having engagement difficulties and I don't deny mech is a useful crutch (I say this as the guy of whom Araris complains that if you build mech in a game I will relentlessly exploit it to solve.) And second, that on re-going through past games yet again to try to get a better fix on Devo, I noticed she has an Elim game I didn't participate in (MR60) that completely explodes my idea of how E!Devo plays, so thanks I guess >> I need time for this so that's not gonna happen right now.
   
• DeTess - I actually feel positive about DeTess at the moment. I still think her mode of play differs from MR63, and also as I've flagged several times, I feel her distro conflict with Archer emerges from what's more naturally a Village perspective. I think with DeTess, the only thing stopping me from a read in the /  juncture is I want to let this Turn play out first, and I'd like to go over her posts and her reads one more time.
   
• Mat - Hoo boy. Okay. The problem with Mat IMO is that I still struggle to see see a viable reason why, if we're theorising E!SB or E!SE Mat, that he was left up for a lynch that close. I've tried to pathwalk this exe to see if it makes sense and I guess it theoretically could but is also uncomfortable - you basically have to theorise that if not for Archer, Mat would've done a last minute single name vote. Which isn't impossible, at least not based on the set-up. The MatTunnel post still doesn't feel right to me, and feels more like Mat trying to invoke a Village tell rather than really having gone there. I need to go over his posts yet again and maybe some data. I don't feel the defensiveness point very much but it might be worth checking out comparators to re-attune, IDK. I think at this point, sheer exhaustion over going in circles really puts me back into the FAFO vote territory.

K. Leaving aside the high efforts:

 - Kas (I'm Seraphimon!)

- Steel

Spoiler

Could probably downgrade to Patamon, but I low-key wanted my first Angemon of the game so here we go. Steel nonchalantly choosing to focus on setting up his YouTube channel over presenteeism makes me further believe he's Village. He just dgaf.

 - JNV, TJ, Sart

Spoiler

I don't think my considerations have substantively changed here. I'd add that depending on certain pieces of information, I might be willing to unitalicise JNV.

I could demote Sart to Tokomon, in truth >> But I cannot count the number of games in which Sart says something, I go 'bro that's kayana no', vote him, and then he's Village. I know this is a read that's insane and hard to justify, and I hate the fact that this read is based off the fact I think his posts are extremely kayana, but there we go. Honestly I love seeing kayana Sart these days because then I feel he's Village. I don't remotely recall a game where he hasn't appeared kayana to me as Village and reasonable as Evil, except maybe LG93 and that was an edgecase (V!Sart, weird/completely untrue vote.)

 - Aman, Fae, Aloha, Illrao

Spoiler

Potential positive vibes on Aman but not sure. Need to re-read more, don't substantively disagree with what TJ saw.

I don't feel fully comfortable with putting Fae here but I also feel like this sort of loose cannon behaviour is not something a team would be happy with.

Surprise promotion for Aloha because I don't actually disagree with Araris there. I'll note that generating suspicions tends to be especially hard for new Elims, so the fact that Aloha has a number of suspicions and only one V!read feels as though it emerges from a bit more of a Village mindset. Would like to keep a close eye though, even so, given Aloha's earlier play.

Generally for doing positive villagery things and the light side of the mind meld equation in terms of reads: Illrao. Subject to revision if necessary.

 - Araris, Alvron

Spoiler

Don't believe I have much on either at the moment. Alv's being Alv, and I don't feel too confident on an Araris read at this point. I will note I was concerned that Araris was narrative shaping but also feel that E!Araris can't actually gain from narrative shaping, so I think that post seems alright.

- TKN, Ash

Spoiler

Think I've flagged TKN's reactivity. Am willing to give a bit more time due to interactions in LG93 dead doc, feel pressure should mount by next cycle if reactivity continues. Will also re-read when I have more energy.

Ash - understand is busy, note that Ash is more passive than, say, in the direct preceding game where he almost got D1 MLed for it too. Feel Alv vote was a bit weird and just parked there, and ngl kind of feel there's a weird Ash-Mat interaction that I'm not sure what to make of. Given the predominant theory is Ash/Archer, kind of feel that's worth it anyway. Clarification here that I use the word 'interaction' without a care for valence. It's not reciprocal because Mat keeps trying to side-train Ash, and I don't feel there's much of a response from Ash, but I take Ash's DeTess vote to not just have saved Archer but also Mat. 

Best I can do right now, sorry. Gonna sleep and be back hopefully a little recovered.

[DeTess she/her]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Any reason why not for Mat? Agreed her vote intuitively needlessly endangers Mat, but self-pres was pretty possible over that. Feels like a risk threshold deal. Also partly because your critique of her reasoning makes sense and probably articulates why I felt ? at that time, but I'm also recalling a game where I think an Elim was read as Village by some for refusing to self-pres onto their Village reads into a tie. Taking a closer look when I have the time and energy as I don't think this one matters as much as direct analysis, so not at the top of my priority list.

  Reveal hidden contents

Potential positive vibes on Aman but not sure. Need to re-read more, don't substantively disagree with what TJ saw.

I don't feel fully comfortable with putting Fae here but I also feel like this sort of loose cannon behaviour is not something a team would be happy with.

Surprise promotion for Aloha because I don't actually disagree with Araris there. I'll note that generating suspicions tends to be especially hard for new Elims, so the fact that Aloha has a number of suspicions and only one V!read feels as though it emerges from a bit more of a Village mindset. Would like to keep a close eye though, even so, given Aloha's earlier play.

Generally for doing positive villagery things and the light side of the mind meld equation in terms of reads: Illrao. Subject to revision if necessary.

 - Araris, Alvron

  Reveal hidden contents

Don't believe I have much on either at the moment. Alv's being Alv, and I don't feel too confident on an Araris read at this point. I will note I was concerned that Araris was narrative shaping but also feel that E!Araris can't actually gain from narrative shaping, so I think that post seems alright.

- TKN, Ash

  Reveal hidden contents

Think I've flagged TKN's reactivity. Am willing to give a bit more time due to interactions in LG93 dead doc, feel pressure should mount by next cycle if reactivity continues. Will also re-read when I have more energy.

Ash - understand is busy, note that Ash is more passive than, say, in the direct preceding game where he almost got D1 MLed for it too. Feel Alv vote was a bit weird and just parked there, and ngl kind of feel there's a weird Ash-Mat interaction that I'm not sure what to make of. Given the predominant theory is Ash/Archer, kind of feel that's worth it anyway. Clarification here that I use the word 'interaction' without a care for valence. It's not reciprocal because Mat keeps trying to side-train Ash, and I don't feel there's much of a response from Ash, but I take Ash's DeTess vote to not just have saved Archer but also Mat. 

Best I can do right now, sorry. Gonna sleep and be back hopefully a little recovered.

The reason I didn't feel like it would be with mat was because my read into it was that the whole thing was a potential trap to get v!mat exed. Then again, I suppose if I assume they're a team then the whole thing could also have been a situation to make e!mat look good, with the worst case situation being that mat would lose a life to getting hit by that tie. So yeah, on second though, e!devo being teamed up with e!mat is not impossible either.

Anyway, getting back to going through the player list one by one. I'm leaning village on Illwei, though it's mostly gut. They started out clearly not quite caught up (understandable, of course), and I'd expect an elim to be able to get some kind of update/summary through their doc. It's not impossible to fake, of course, but I just didn't get the feeling they had anyone giving them pointers and info when they got thrown into the game. I also like that they seem to be trying to solve the game, sharing some reads, going into detail on the reasons for their vote and asking questions to get a better idea about how other people are looking at the game.

Amanuensis is feeling a little off to me. They seem to be playing differently from last game, and just generally seem less invested in solving the game. Maybe it's the lack of real info so far, but gut is telling me I should be keeping an eye on them.

[Kasimir he/him]

Oh yeah. おはよう, Writer-sama! If and only if you don't have other priority PMs, could I please have another? I struggle to work entirely in the thread without flooding it and this lets me offload my panic/confused thoughts onto people off-thread when I try to make things make sense <3 ありがとうございます~

Spoiler

Edited to add: Post formatting went to hell, hoping this line here fixes everything, geez.

27 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Amanuensis is feeling a little off to me. They seem to be playing differently from last game, and just generally seem less invested in solving the game. Maybe it's the lack of real info so far, but gut is telling me I should be keeping an eye on them.

Tbh the main reason I'm giving him grace is my thoughts on the likely events of N1 due to E!Aman having a known tendency to enjoy playing with his food, but in retrospect, that may not be the brightest idea - kill meta swamping does happen, since teammates may have other thoughts on the kill and may override, except in the case of certain particularly opinionated individuals.

@The Known Novel - What's behind your mild sus of Archer? 

Edited to add 2: Apologies to all. For anyone who didn't see this, the post turned into a mess of spoiler boxes and was pretty much unreadable. I don't know why but have finally fixed it. I guess the Shard cannot accept the divine power of Patamon.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Elandera she/her]

Notice: I will likely be late to rollover tonight. However, the cycle will close at 8:30p.m. PDT regardless of whether I'm around to say it. Any votes or actions submitted past the 8:30 timestamp will not be counted.

[Kasimir he/him]

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Someone please remind me (not shortly after this post, but tomorrow :P) to start thinking about this game again tomorrow. Had a really solid writing day and am now ahead of my schedule for the week, so I shouldn't have any excuse.

Thank you <3 g'night o7

Spoiler

 

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[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Do you think this can be satisfactorily explained by hypothesising he would be willing to have voted in the next two minutes if Archer hadn't beaten him to it? Not bothering to timestamp bot this, but the difference between his post and Archer's is a matter of seconds here.

Why with regard to Archer? That DeTess vote?

If White Fox rb and potential post-Rollovet claim, could expect to see aggressive distancing from Elims pre-that, maybe. Though as I'm typing, it's four hours past and no word.

Mat responded two minutes before rollover and didn't vote, so that seems unlikely unless he's teamed with Archer.

Also the ties to Sart, though I do know what you mean about v!Sart having controversial ideas.

Do you think it's worth sacrificing a roleblocker to maybe get an elim? Shade expert can't protect twice in a row.

7 hours ago, DeTess said:

Right, it does feel a bit odd. Actually, more than a bit. Devotary kinda frames it like a test to see how willing mat was to vote for me in self defense, but such a test seems pointless, as mat doing a vote in self defense there wouldn't at all be alignment indicative. I wouldn't find it odd for a villager to vote in self defense for the first cycle even if it is against someone they don't really suspect, as C1 the only person you really can be sure of is yourself. It almost feels like devotary was setting mat up there for failure, planning to use them switching in self defense as a reason to push for the execution C2.

The other part of voting Mat was not wanting you to die without being able to respond (this will be true every cycle but there's enough data from C1 that I now think it's unlikely you're evil and wouldn't want to vote you) but being unwilling to exe Archer twice in a row.

[Amanuensis he/him]

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

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“Brilliant Service. Near impeccable timing. Would highly recommend to all ADHDers who struggle with time management. #PATAMON4EVER”

<KEEPMESUBBEDUNTILTHEDAYIDIE>
 

Spoiler

Okay, going to start rereading from the start to see if anything stands out to me on my way back to the present. Hoping that helps me refocus. Talk soon xx

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Oh yeah. おはよう, Writer-sama! If and only if you don't have other priority PMs, could I please have another? I struggle to work entirely in the thread without flooding it and this lets me offload my panic/confused thoughts onto people off-thread when I try to make things make sense <3 ありがとうございます~

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Edited to add: Post formatting went to hell, hoping this line here fixes everything, geez.

Tbh the main reason I'm giving him grace is my thoughts on the likely events of N1 due to E!Aman having a known tendency to enjoy playing with his food, but in retrospect, that may not be the brightest idea - kill meta swamping does happen, since teammates may have other thoughts on the kill and may override, except in the case of certain particularly opinionated individuals.

@The Known Novel - What's behind your mild sus of Archer? 

Edited to add 2: Apologies to all. For anyone who didn't see this, the post turned into a mess of spoiler boxes and was pretty much unreadable. I don't know why but have finally fixed it. I guess the Shard cannot accept the divine power of Patamon.

As I've said multiple times, the forbidden word/my innate suspicion of people who vote me. I haven't had any particular pings from him other than that, so I'm letting it simmer.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you think it's worth sacrificing a roleblocker to maybe get an elim? Shade expert can't protect twice in a row.

Depends on how on-track we are, I think. Part of this is admittedly me being impatient because I wanna know wtfrith hapepned and also because I believe we can work more solidly from a red flip than roles simpliciter. In RB world, the Elims likely already knew and have begun aggressively distancing which is helpful because we can look out for that. But ultimately if WF don't wanna we can't do anything about that. I tend to be solidly of the view that players sometimes expect too much heavy lifting from roles and prioritise that over being a Villager. If you are a Village anything you are a Villager first and that role second. If you aren't helping the Village, what's the point? So I guess - yes and no. I'd come forward in their shoes since that clears things up. I expect they could argue they can do more good hidden. If they're right, fair enough. If they're wrong, justify that choice to the Village dead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I mean that's the fundamental dilemma of every role right?

Can agree objectively speaking it's not the worst scenario they're not saying anything - thinking a bit of LG83 here where connection analysis suffered a little because Bort was found via JNV scanning and Mat RBing (I think?) RB claim will always kill the thread so agree it's worth holding off on for as long as possible. Like, the problem with not knowing IMO is that last Night is functionally a black hole. We have possibilities that are, to be sure, not equiprobable, but we don't know, and there's a different set of Elim team constraints and assumptions depending on which of the possibilities we lock in on. As I pointed out again, if there is no RB claim by EoC, do we increase credence in the belief the Elims were so inactive they didn't kill? (Cf. you suggesting withheld kill, Araris suggesting inactivity.) If so, isn't the WF damning us to several pointless cycles of CCing hoping for the best? (Yes we know my views on CC, CC sucks, wastes time, allows performativity as standard for thread participation, super informative! /s, works in really specific circumstances when Elim teams have to defend inactive partners, and so on.) That's really awful strategy.

TBF we can't NKA in RB world so that's not the worst.

I don't deny that roles can be valuable but I'm always unabashedly about analysis and thread participation first. It's bread-and-butter. Probably a bit soapboaxy here but I do have strong views about players who want to role and not bother with Village legwork. And I feel this kind of comes out (unrelated I'll agree) at endgame or midgame when players are sometimes too quick to be unnecessarily oversecretive. Like ok maybe this is the best way to express my view rn - I don't need them to claim explicitly. But if we could have a guaranteed E flip and get a V flip today imma be mad. Avoidable MLs on V should be avoided. That's my end stance.

I have been intertaining an inetrnally paranoid world with Araris and RB but I think it's not really internally consistent so leaving it for now.

If I'm less than coherent btw sorry, have downed prolly 5 different meds now and am waiting for sleep. Love Covid. IDK how Orlok and Ash SEed with it and I respect them.

13 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Also the ties to Sart, though I do know what you mean about v!Sart having controversial ideas.

Isn't it Archer who is basically "Praise Sart!" with every other post or am I high?

17 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Mat responded two minutes before rollover and didn't vote, so that seems unlikely unless he's teamed with Archer.

Hmm.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Isn't it Archer who is basically "Praise Sart!" with every other post or am I high?

29 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Well, you’re probably high, but it is also pretty sus. I’ve been getting some fairly e!Archer reads, but I always just want to e read him for some reason.

[Kasimir he/him]

22 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

As I've said multiple times, the forbidden word/my innate suspicion of people who vote me. I haven't had any particular pings from him other than that, so I'm letting it simmer.

Question also. Would u say u r sus pf ppl who vote u b/c u think they r going LHF?

Edited to add:

Oh yeah Writer-sama: Omakase pls <3 U made a good choice for PM so I trust u <3

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question also. Would u say u r sus pf ppl who vote u b/c u think they r going LHF?

Edited to add:

Oh yeah Writer-sama: Omakase pls <3 U made a good choice for PM so I trust u <3

To an extent. I've said in the past that I tend to trust people that sus me and sus people who vote me. Mostly only when they're the first or second vote on me. I feel that villagers are inclined to distrust me enough that they're willing to vote me, but they don't tend to want to be the first person to do it.

VC? Trying to decide if I want to throw my hat in the ring.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

To an extent. I've said in the past that I tend to trust people that sus me and sus people who vote me. Mostly only when they're the first or second vote on me. I feel that villagers are inclined to distrust me enough that they're willing to vote me, but they don't tend to want to be the first person to do it.

VC? Trying to decide if I want to throw my hat in the ring.

• Ashbringer (2) - Matrim's Dice, Illwei
• Matrim (2) - Sart, Araris
• Araris (1) - Archer
• Alvron (1) - Ashbringer
• Devotary (1) - DeTess

Almost caught up. Will post again and vote in a bit

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

That vote on Alvron by Ash is really random. I don’t know that I trust it…

 

[Mat he/him]

12 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

It’s more that I don’t think I have convincing reasons to get anyone else to vote for you. But you are definitely in the pool of ~10 players that I have no qualms about exeing.

That first part surprises me. Does that mean you have reasons you don't think are convincing? I think I probably could convince people on an Archer train, but I'd need to convince myself first :P. Will do my Skittles/Catch up post later today and there I'll decide how I actually feel.

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

It's odd though: I really dislike Sart's conviction that a raw role lynch without any appeal to suspicions at all in the SBs will net us an Elim because that's how you force your SEs to out themselves or get gunned down in the process, which feels more like an Elim mindset since the Elims would probably like to not have to deal with SE complications at all.

At the same time, I feel reassured because as much as it #feelsbad to admit this, my rule of thumb has continued to hold across games: if I think this is kayana and weird, it's V!Sart. When I read his posts and vibe with them, he's E!Sart. Even true when I GM him. So the fact I'm very thrown makes me feel reassured in a V!read of Sart, and I don't know how this is defensible but there I go. I think V!Sart and V!me just exist at perpendiculars ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I mean, I think there's a difference with me because I've already lost my extra life and so am essentially vanilla. But after my flip I don't really want y'all to rolexe everyone with an extra life even though I agree it's likely the elims have some sort of Shade protection. That could just be Silver Dust, yeah? Idk.

Generally our reactions to Sart are about the same but this game I'm not too sure when also taking into account Devo's point at the top of this page.

9 hours ago, DeTess said:

I also agree with Kas that it seems odd how little devotary has talked about people as opposed to mechanics, though their last post does seem to correct that a little (though that was after pressure was being put on them over their lack of reads). For now I'm reading devotary as leaning elim.

I've actually talked myself into a v!Devo read somewhat. I think it was her response to Kas where she basically said 'this is high effort me'; I can see that and it feels more village to me. I will point out that talking about mechanics and then moving to people when pressured to do so is exactly what you did D1 of this game, and C1-2 of the last.

Also, I didn't really have a problem with her questionings at EoD since it felt like she was testing for an e!me/e!you team. Which, I didn't vote you, so there you go? xD

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Mat - Hoo boy. Okay. The problem with Mat IMO is that I still struggle to see see a viable reason why, if we're theorising E!SB or E!SE Mat, that he was left up for a lynch that close. I've tried to pathwalk this exe to see if it makes sense and I guess it theoretically could but is also uncomfortable - you basically have to theorise that if not for Archer, Mat would've done a last minute single name vote. Which isn't impossible, at least not based on the set-up. The MatTunnel post still doesn't feel right to me, and feels more like Mat trying to invoke a Village tell rather than really having gone there. I need to go over his posts yet again and maybe some data. I don't feel the defensiveness point very much but it might be worth checking out comparators to re-attune, IDK. I think at this point, sheer exhaustion over going in circles really puts me back into the FAFO vote territory.

I guess you only have my word on this but if not for Archer, I would not have done a last minute single name vote. I think I already mentioned that, and why.

The tunnel thing... yeah, I guess there could have been some subconscious wanting-to-be-village-read going on there, but elims aren't the only ones who want to be village read  It would have been subconscious though, won't write my post again but that read to me at least felt like the beginnings of a tunnel, just one that had been building in my head and not the thread.

I don't have any idea how I read Aman and this fact is seriously concerning to me.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Matrim's Dice

[Amanuensis he/him]

Reads Bucket

Spoiler

• Not Even Questioning It:  Kasimir
• Probably Village: Illwei, Steeldancer, DeTess
• Better Than Null: Alvron, Fae
• Quokka: JNV
• Mixed Feelings: Mat, TJ, Sart, Araris, Aloha, Archer, Devo
• Won’t Blink: Ash, TKN

More trusted on left, less trusted on the right. Won’t Blink is black since while I don’t mind either dying, there’s not a lot of content to go on. As such, would rather exe in my Mixed Feelings pile, as I feel they have the greatest likelihood of producing further leads.

If you want to know why anyone is specifically where they are, let me know. It’s hard to take notes on mobile so most of the reasoning is just in my head, but I also don’t want to waste hours typing it all out at once

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis