Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Kasimir he/him]

Quote

”I'm standing over the body of a brother. I'm weeping. Is that his blood or mine? What have we done? ”

—Collected on Vevanev 1173, 107 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was an out-of-work Veden sailor.

Quote

”A small step. A small victory. Why then, does it feel so much like defeat?”

—Collected on Kakashan 1174, 109 seconds pre-death, by an unknown scribe. Subject was an old recluse.

@Amanuensis

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Spoiler

Edited to add:

Elan confirmed that items are not mentioned. I think it's reasonable to expect that Aman genuinely had Silver Dust due to the roleblock - as I hypothesised, using a Cultist with Iron Will and Silver Dust means no penalty from Wrath and no backlash from surviving it. This should mean that the Elims are now pushed to a less optimal DK.

I am not going to significantly look at Aman's reads. I did so out of respect for a possible V!Aman world earlier, but I don't feel confident at trying to read E!Aman and will simply redo my reads by re-reading the thread.

Edited to add 2:

Sankyuu, Writer-sama~! I will use them well and stop flooding the thread ^^

@Elandera Actually btw am I still insane you never mentioned and I'm marginally worried it can't be fixed

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

I'll be honest, reading the end of the previous cycle I was starting to seriously wonder if Aman was village, even though that didn't change the fact that the execution was necessary to resolve the stuff around the no-kill. So well done @Amanuensis!

Btw, I've slept really badly, so I won't be very active at all this night turn.

[Ashbringer he/him]

One gone, many to go. Aman had reads, and as perhaps a few noted read Fae/Ash as more Elim while attacking Mat more than either of us. Among other things. And Aman fits the same niche as Alvron in terms of Kas-kill advocacy, although there could be another culprit.

But I'm... not done, but almost. Done enough to have more time to look at this.

Time for a hunt, perhaps.

Quiet.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

I'll be honest, reading the end of the previous cycle I was starting to seriously wonder if Aman was village, even though that didn't change the fact that the execution was necessary to resolve the stuff around the no-kill. So well done @Amanuensis!

Btw, I've slept really badly, so I won't be very active at all this night turn.

Ngl he gave me flashbacks to Araris's play in AG9. Ironically, Aman's own advice there helped me stay firm here.

RIP, I feel you, take care!

More generally, to everyone else: does anyone see any reason not to claim who got an item off Aman and what? From the looks of it, items cannot be claimed via kill so it's useful to map and know what to watch out for.

[Ashbringer he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

More generally, to everyone else: does anyone see any reason not to claim who got an item off Aman and what? From the looks of it, items cannot be claimed via kill so it's useful to map and know what to watch out for.

Items can't be claimed, but they can get removed. I doubt the Village would manage to snag a Crossbow off Aman, but that likely should wait to claim. Anything not a Crossbow then probably claim it yeah. (And if Aman did have a Crossbow, there's probably a few extra Elims on that train to try and get it back.)

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Items can't be claimed, but they can get removed. I doubt the Village would manage to snag a Crossbow off Aman, but that likely should wait to claim. Anything not a Crossbow then probably claim it yeah. (And if Aman did have a Crossbow, there's probably a few extra Elims on that train to try and get it back.)

Removed by killing, I assume?

So yeah, claim anything that's not a Crossbow then.

[|TJ| he/him]

Hmm, a bit more suspicious of Sart and how he was bang-on accurate about the kill being blocked by White Fox. And also, who was it who said the elim kill submission depends on the role and a lot other factors? I think it was Araris, not sure if I read it more suspicious or less, seeing as that was accurate as well.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

And also, who was it who said the elim kill submission depends on the role and a lot other factors? I think it was Araris, not sure if I read it more suspicious or less, seeing as that was accurate as well

Was Araris but I also made the same point earlier:

Quote

Well, in this game the player submitting the kill would be down a bit more to how roles got distributed, such as Silver Bones or Silver Dust. I'll also note that I am very aware of how players perceive me liking to send in the kill, especially in games with roleblocks.

I said, when disagreeing with Araris about protection being farfetched:

Quote

I am not sure I agree that a protection scenario is farfetched in that I think the Elims would naturally select for a teammate with Silver Bones, or Silver Dust. And given Broken Survivors and the insanity penalty, I don't think it's too weird they'd also try to select for one with Iron Will. It does require a bit of juggling but given the selection incentive, I feel the real question is how plausible it is that the Elims started off with Shade protection and Iron Will? 

And yeah, I don't think that's too beyond the pale.

Sart thing will wait for after sleep. But sus of you I think.

[---]

Again as I said, I want to look more at TJ tomorrow. I'll look through some more in a bit and think more.

[Kasimir he/him]

K. Gonna do my best to get what analysis I can out, just in case. Running into some hard stamina limits here. Was completely wiped after a single AoE round with Wyrm, that sort of thing. I don't know what I have the strength for, but let's take things one step at a time.

Walking wounded here, wcyd >>

6 hours ago, Elandera said:

Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity, Kasimir
Ashbringer (2) - Illwei, TheAlpha 929
Araris (1) - Archer
Matrim's Dice (1) - Sart
Alvron (1) - Ashbringer
Devotary of Spontaneity (1) - Alvron
No Vote () - Fae, Steel, Aman

High voting cycle. Filled my credences as highlights. Note I haven't really re-read the cycle yet, I haven't had the energy to but commit to doing so after a nap.

Thoughts:

• Do not particularly believe Aman train was clean. Believe Aman was not lying about the Silver Dust, on the off-chance it did buy him a Turn, but also because it makes sense. There's no point in having an Iron Will Cultist make a kill unless he did also have it. That being said, there's the world in which that team has an E!Shade Expert. But I sort of doubt it for the moment - too bonkers.
   
• Demoting Sart at popular insistence - still do not believe Sart is Evil but notice that for all Sart agitated about finding a confirmed Elim if WF outed self, did not bother to vote for Aman. Of all people, @Sart should understand importance of Village control if Aman really had Silver Dust. Feels 
   
• I actually have an improved read on Ash because Ash caught an Elim slip from Aman near the end. Gives me similar vibes to the MR he oneshot E!TKN and then Drake and I 2v1ed E!Archer but I don't understand why @Ashbringer didn't vote Aman.
   
• The last I can see, Archer was on-Shard somewhere around an hour and fifty minutes pre-Rollovet. Even if we handwave that, it matches with my hazy impressions of the EoD that he wasn't on after Devo's reveal and everything escalated. I don't feel it's really possible to read into this one way or another.
   
• @The Known Novel - Why say you were staying out of it then changed your mind? Mind walking me through your thought process?
   
• <TKN, Mat, Araris, TJ> are my effective set of suspects for Elims on the Aman train. Inb4 it's all of them tbh. (I think there's something else to consider: we either expect the Aman train to be full of Elims or not. If it isn't, we have to accept he likely didn't have a protective item or they chose to give it up - the former points towards them potentially having an E!SE. Likely answer will be one of degrees, but even so - this is the fundamental trade-off at stake.)
   
• This line from TJ makes me feel uncomfortable and I don't know why.
   

  Quote

  • I like that Mat, Kas and Illwei also concur on Ash/Archer team. Good reads on them (Hi Wei!).

   
• Sorry I was gonna say more stuff here but may need to come back to it. Gonna be sick. Just posting for now so I don't have to accidentally lose this.
   

6 hours ago, Alvron said:

For those wondering, I am the hidden vote on Devotary.  I placed the order shortly after the cycle started for reasons I'm not going to reveal. Yet.  

Any chance you gonna before I die?  

Edited to add:

@|TJ| - Bhai, your views on Ash?

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

This line from TJ makes me feel uncomfortable and I don't know why.

Ah you asked about it, I forgot. That was just mis-worded from me as a result of sleepy-typing. I meant "good read" as in "village points" for players who also reached independent conclusion that Ash and Archer could have been teamed. In terms of reads Kas > Illwei >> Mat. Still unsure about Mat, but would lean mild village at this point. 

Edit in response to Kas' edit : 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| - Bhai, your views on Ash?

Still one of my top suspects. I'd be voting for him if there are no takers for Archer. Still believe they could be teamed. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by |TJ|

[Kasimir he/him]

53 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Still one of my top suspects.

Why so?

53 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Still unsure about Mat, but would lean mild village at this point. 

Why?

I will say it's an awkward retraction given I liked that late Ash post, but I've also found something I don't really feel positive about.

Edited to add: 

@Matrim's Dice - Your very first reaction on D2 was to assume I'd been attacked and to rule it out as a WGG. Why? (I'm asking about your thought process at that point.)

It's a very odd assumption to make and I'm trying to parse it:

Quote

I assume Kas was protected? Doubt he was WGGd so he’s just village. Also a Writer? xD

If I had been protected, the Elim who attacked me should've been dead or driven insane unless they had a confluence of Iron Will and protection. On the one hand, it's uncomfortably close in that Aman likely had protection and had Iron Will, so would have been immune. But it seems a pretty reflexive question and so I like it, given we now know what had happened.

Edited to add 2:

53 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Still unsure about Mat, but would lean mild village at this point. 

Actually, same. I'm willing to believe V!Mat at this point. I think E!Mat should've taken the SE out. It's low cost, pretty much there, and would never have exposed Aman until way later if Mat died but all Elim life is a ticking timebomb anyway, and he need never prove anything.

Edited to add 3:

Sorry, let me clarify. I specifically state Mat because he's known to have SB anyway, having already lost it, which - as I somehow keep bloody forgetting >> - is half the SE equation. Mat's also known for ah, very creative claims, like Gnordainggin, which is pronounced "Vin", and also "Just an ordinary Son of Feanor." The chancy nature of the RB and the way these things were set up functionally means that if Mat had just made the claim that he was the SE who protected me the previous night, no one would have batted an eye at the roleblock claim (and as Devo notes, she wouldn't have made it anyway.) And Mat would functionally never be asked to protect again, having already burned it on me. It's a really great fakeclaim for his position.

IDK I'd say this for every player, but at least feel he has the sort of profile where I could see him do something like that. Also Aman did park on his train quite a bit. To be sure, he could have shifted off, as Devo brought Mat into contention very late, but again, IDK, do you really do that do your SB?

^^^

I'm not fully sure of this line of thought, so I'd definitely like to hear thoughts. But this seems like something well within the respective ranges of E!Aman and E!Mat.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Why so?

 Combination of a chain of thought along with the fact that I don't have many suspects. I suspect Archer, Ash voted to protect him. Plus Ash feels like he's in the Dingo meta. And combine that with lack of other suspects - Null Minus on Araris, Sart. Null/ IDK on Alvron, Alpha, JNV, Fae (I hear your argument about teammates allowing/not allowing but tbh, most of the time, new elim players don't send posts to be proof-read and coaching is rare as well). Null Plus on Mat, TKN, Steel (Sorry, I cannot confidentally read low-activity players' meta like you do). Mild/Moderate plus on Illwei, deTess. Strong plus - Kas, Devotary. *

* - conditioned to change upon re-read of Aman's ISO. 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

It's a very odd assumption to make and I'm trying to parse it:

Why is it odd though? You went insane and there was no kill, so I think the most normal reaction would be to assume you had been hit.  No kill + most common insanity mech being taking a hit = Kas has been hit. 

[Kasimir he/him]

35 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Why is it odd though? You went insane and there was no kill, so I think the most normal reaction would be to assume you had been hit.  No kill + most common insanity mech being taking a hit = Kas has been hit. 

This one I'll answer first: it's because Mat specifically says protected and protects in this game entail a secondary kill, or insanity result. I think the secondary kill is foremost on the mind of an Elim because that's the thing they want to avoid and it's been foremost on my mind because I woke up one morning to Elan cackling and telling me I was now insane and trying to work out how that happened >> I don't feel that's naturally something a Villager necessarily immediately thinks about. Standard Lurchers don't retaliate.

35 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Plus Ash feels like he's in the Dingo meta.

I liked Ash catching Aman's Elim slip when Aman suddenly said Devo was probably WF at the end. But he didn't do anything about it. And I still feel that Ash's early vote on Alv just as easily fits the perspective of an Elim looking for a roleblocker who might be able to hit Aman putting in the NK. The story of Alv's accuracy as the Tehlin in MR29 is legendary. Pretty much a whole bunch of players would C1 me: you, Araris, Illwei, Archer, Mat (!!!), Steel, TKN, Ash...

And sadly, apparently, Aman  </3 (j/k I've C1ed him too, fair's fair.)

At this point, we'd be better off listing the players who wouldn't C1 me: <Alv, Devo, JNV.> Wow y'all monsters. I'm with them.

Not only does Ash pick someone not on the first list, but he picks the guy with the roleblocker and vig rep?  That's kind of weird to me. But part of me is also trying to work out how that Elim team must be trying to respond. Clearly no one wanted to defend Aman, but the fact that I mentioned that survivors of attacks aren't told they survived meant there was a whole world of possibility open, and in the 'was attacked and survived world', Aman gets away scot-free. Does Ash's vote fit with that? I genuinely DK man.

I think a point in Ash's favour is he brings up the roleblock possibility, which Elims prefer off the table IMO:

Though I think this opens a question:

You and Devo both take the line of thought the Elims would want to broach the roleblocker issue. But would they really, when opening it is exactly what leads to Aman? As long as Devo didn't claim, as long as the thought that there was a SE keeping quiet for Reasons, or shocker, Withheld Kill Madness, technically they're getting by fine. The whole situation began precisely because the roleblocker issue was not set in stone. I pointed out it's the most parsimonious option. But parsimony does not always make a theory true. Sometimes actions dominoes do happen. That's just life.

You could argue it's their TMI giving it away, but keep in mind that at that point I was doing the work for arguing maybe it was a protect. Is it in their interests to argue against a Villager not wanting to pursue the block angle too aggressively?

35 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

new elim players don't send posts to be proof-read and coaching is rare as well

I'm trying to find a nice way to put this and I can't so mods just gonna have to tell me to fix it when I wake up from meds. (Probably mods: "So you shouldn't have said it, goddamnit Kas.") But my line of thought was less about coaching and more: "If you keep doing reckless things off the top of your head that make your teammates unhappy, your teammates are going to tell you in increasingly strong language to stop being such a chaotic" and at some point, they call for the IM, or the GM proactively alerts the IM.

And I think that: A. randomly swanning in and self-voting, B. crossbow roll-call, and C. actually making the same claim as teammate (though granted this is super late and functionally inert) are increasingly disruptive and destructive for a player who randed Elim. (To be clear, we're looking at the Elim hypothetical here.)

I don't think this is a point about coaching - this is a point about not having to log in to a doc to see what next thing has happened because your teammate got bored.

35 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Null Plus on Mat, TKN

Why TKN?

35 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Devotary. *

* - conditioned to change upon re-read of Aman's ISO. 

You think E!Devo bussed E!Aman here?

Edited to add:

@|TJ| Odd question, but can you see a DeTess-Aman team at all, or is it incoherent? Had an odd thought off certain interactions but don't want to influence you here.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You think E!Devo bussed E!Aman here?

The only way I can see that working is if Aman's kill got roleblocked by someone else (or maybe if it was just a defense, but I doubt it), and e!devo claimed the action to gain major village cred. But that's something I'll personally only really be willing to look into if I end up at last 3 with devo and someone else I really trust, or someone else claims to have also blocked Aman.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, DeTess said:

The only way I can see that working is if Aman's kill got roleblocked by someone else (or maybe if it was just a defense, but I doubt it), and e!devo claimed the action to gain major village cred. But that's something I'll personally only really be willing to look into if I end up at last 3 with devo and someone else I really trust, or someone else claims to have also blocked Aman.

It's not a possibility I'm willing to explore at this stage, but I'm curious why TJ wants to revise Devo on re-reading Aman's ISO.

Edited to add:

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't feel that's naturally something a Villager necessarily immediately thinks about. Standard Lurchers don't retaliate.

@|TJ| I dunno if this is more helpful but maybe this is what I'm trying to get at:

Whenever we work out what happened with vote manip in a Tyrian ruleset, we usually don't try to multiply entities unnecessarily. So we don't really try to postulate as many small cancelling-out interactions as possible.

Quote

Aman (0): Kasimir
Kasimir (4): Wyrm, TJ, Ren

There are...lots of ways to build in additional Soothes and Riots, sometimes unnecessarily complicated, by having them cancel out. But we try to stay as simple as possible.

All I'm pointing out is that if you're trying to stay simple and you see no kill and Kas insane, I agree with you Broken Survivors is the natural thought. But I'm not sure a Elim would immediately be thinking of a protect, because protects in this game are retaliatory, meaning there are missing deaths or insanity reports you have to account for as well. You could argue it's a matter of terminology and maybe it is, but I kind of expect the retaliatory kill element to be more naturally in mind for someone who just came off the Night cycle and working out kill targets. Not sure Mat shakes that off so easily.

The very very tldr; is this is me trying to articulate what stuck out about it to me, and that's that I agree with you.

Elan had to actually explain that Lurches killed in this game to me when I was puzzling out why I had gone insane, which is why I feel like that's the more natural place for the mind to go if you're not actually Evil.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Pretty much a whole bunch of players would C1 me: you, Araris, Illwei, Archer, Mat (!!!), Steel, TKN, Ash...

I said I would not hesitate to C1 you when I was an elim to hopefully come off as village, so there's no evidence I would actually C1 you :P.

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You and Devo both take the line of thought the Elims would want to broach the roleblocker issue. But would they really, when opening it is exactly what leads to Aman? As long as Devo didn't claim, as long as the thought that there was a SE keeping quiet for Reasons, or shocker, Withheld Kill Madness, technically they're getting by fine. The whole situation began precisely because the roleblocker issue was not set in stone. I pointed out it's the most parsimonious option. But parsimony does not always make a theory true. Sometimes actions dominoes do happen. That's just life.

You could argue it's their TMI giving it away, but keep in mind that at that point I was doing the work for arguing maybe it was a protect. Is it in their interests to argue against a Villager not wanting to pursue the block angle too aggressively?

But no one actually strongly argues against a protect or pursuing it aggressively. They just said it's their guess. I think one of the elim techniques is to act like they're guessing what happened when they know what happened to come off as "accurate villager" and doing so in a non-TMI way. Not sure if I recall I've done this as an elim, but I've definitely remember doing this as a villager in that anonymous Hemalurgist game. LG..70 something, though the intention here was to let the village know what actually happened by faking  a guess without revealing that I was a Hemalurgist. 

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If you keep doing reckless things off the top of your head that make your teammates unhappy, your teammates are going to tell you in increasingly strong language to stop being such a chaotic" and at some point, they call for the IM, or the GM proactively alerts the IM.

And I think that: A. randomly swanning in and self-voting, B. crossbow roll-call, and C. actually making the same claim as teammate (though granted this is super late and functionally inert) are increasingly disruptive and destructive for a player who randed Elim. (To be clear, we're looking at the Elim hypothetical here.)

I think you're talking like you're imagining they're your potential teammate. If I was a teammate of a new player who did all this and got village-read for it, I'd laughing and encouraging them to keep it up xD So it all comes down to elim team composition. If they're getting village read and aren't endangering their teammates, teammates could be like "what's the harm?".

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why TKN?

Just at this point where TKN's frustrations at everyone on focusing on Mat D1, the annoyance feels genuine. 

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You think E!Devo bussed E!Aman here?

Edited to add:

@|TJ| Odd question, but can you see a DeTess-Aman team at all, or is it incoherent? Had an odd thought off certain interactions but don't want to influence you here.

Ah no, the asterisk is for the whole post. As in "reads of everyone may change upon Aman's ISO re-read". I've been village reading Devo since that post I quoted in D1. 

Edit - 

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

All I'm pointing out is that if you're trying to stay simple and you see no kill and Kas insane, I agree with you Broken Survivors is the natural thought. But I'm not sure a Elim would immediately be thinking of a protect, because protects in this game are retaliatory, meaning there are missing deaths or insanity reports you have to account for as well. You could argue it's a matter of terminology and maybe it is, but I kind of expect the retaliatory kill element to be more naturally in mind for someone who just came off the Night cycle and working out kill targets. Not sure Mat shakes that off so easily.

Ahhh got it. Yeah it slipped my mind too that protects are retaliatory. And if your point is that it probably slipped Mat's mind too and that an elim would be more mindful of the ret. kill which points to v!Mat, then we're in agreement, yeah. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by |TJ|

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

I said I would not hesitate to C1 you when I was an elim to hopefully come off as village, so there's no evidence I would actually C1 you :P.

Lack of evidence doesn't mean you actually wouldn't, smh. Y'all soulless, my true buddies are apparently JNV and Devo >:(

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

But no one actually strongly argues against a protect or pursuing it aggressively. They just said it's their guess. I think one of the elim techniques is to act like they're guessing what happened when they know what happened to come off as "accurate villager" and doing so in a non-TMI way. Not sure if I recall I've done this as an elim, but I've definitely remember doing this as a villager in that anonymous Hemalurgist game. LG..70 something, though the intention here was to let the village know what actually happened by faking  a guess without revealing that I was a Hemalurgist. 

I actually disagree: I feel like Sart definitively dismissed the other possibilities and focused on a roleblock, and Araris dismissed anything that wasn't a withheld kill or a roleblock. Those two are the ones I have in mind when I ask if the Elims really want to narrow the field. But maybe I'm talking to the wrong person here because I think that pinged Mat and Devo more about Sart, but it's something I'm thinking of aloud anyway

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I think you're talking like you're imagining they're your potential teammate. If I was a teammate of a new player who did all this and got village-read for it, I'd laughing and encouraging them to keep it up xD So it all comes down to elim team composition. If they're getting village read and aren't endangering their teammates, teammates could be like "what's the harm?".

You know, you can just spell it out.

"Kas if you want players to stop being chaotic in the non-social way, just suspect them and lynch them for it."

:eyes:

I am entirely okay with this.

I think the last point does matter though because that claim is a very odd claim to make coming on the tail of Aman's own.

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Just at this point where TKN's frustrations at everyone on focusing on Mat D1, the annoyance feels genuine. 

Fair. I liked his Aman vote post, it felt very genuine, but I also still want to hear his thought process.

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Ah no, the asterisk is for the whole post. As in "reads of everyone may change upon Aman's ISO re-read". I've been village reading Devo since that post I quoted in D1. 

Okay, fair. Yeah sadly my Devo reads have been All Over. But we get there in the end, I guess?

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, fair. Yeah sadly my Devo reads have been All Over. But we get there in the end, I guess?

This is hilarious during re-reading because while catching up I don't actually feel the time lapse and whereas I was village-reading her, your reads were jumping to and fro from post to post and I'm like "huh, what am I missing" xD

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think the last point does matter though because that claim is a very odd claim to make coming on the tail of Aman's own.

Okay I think I missed this part. What does the "making the same claim as teammate" part refer to?

[JNV]

9 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Okay I think I missed this part. What does the "making the same claim as teammate" part refer to?

End of the day turn 

[Kasimir he/him]

23 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Ahhh got it. Yeah it slipped my mind too that protects are retaliatory. And if your point is that it probably slipped Mat's mind too and that an elim would be more mindful of the ret. kill which points to v!Mat, then we're in agreement, yeah. 

Yeah, that and Aman breaking a stable tie by parking a vote on Mat that never left on D1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm doing some of the analysis now.

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

This is hilarious during re-reading because while catching up I don't actually feel the time lapse and whereas I was village-reading her, your reads were jumping to and fro from post to post and I'm like "huh, what am I missing" xD

I feel that's something E!me can't really emulate which is the insane amount of paranoia that fog-of-war generates. But also remember that I'm still dealing with COVID and the meds and overall experience is great

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Okay I think I missed this part. What does the "making the same claim as teammate" part refer to?

Ok. This one, disclaimer, again pushes me to V!read her a bit. The counterargument is she made the claim way too late for it to matter, but she claimed V!Thief which is what Aman also claimed. Unlike Aman, she claimed not to have found an item. While it's theoretically possible to have duplicate roles, it does undermine the initial claim plausibility, because with multiple roles, especially an item role like Thief, it's pretty plausible to have them on both sides of the game.

But Aman's entire position or tacit position was a bargaining one, based on the utility of his role...of which...we now know there's another. I think that cuts against what he was trying to do.

Edited to add: I think something I do not have a good answer to though is still why no one thought to fakeclaim SE. This was the major out, IMO. The fact no one did this seems to suggest to me that Aman's teammates had to be:

(i) offline,
(ii) uncomfortable with doing so,
(iii) unable to do so

- at least one of the three. That's the part where I kinda think it's not Mat because everything aligns so nearly for him to do so. But that's also where I think it's significant Archer was missing for a good chunk of the cycle. Though I'm not fully sure I believe E!Archer. Gotta re-read.

Edited April 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

Hmm, I missed that Fae's Thief claim initially. And I think that does it for me, that's enough for me to read her as village for now. 

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

for now. 

It's always for now isn't it.

It's reading you as 'ride or die Village bro' everytime we PM or thread solve together and then locking it in that kills me and damns the Village, in the end :eyes:

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I got the Silver Dust by the way, so Aman did have it.

[Archer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I got the Silver Dust by the way, so Aman did have it.

Why is that relevant?/why claim?