Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Araris Valerian he/him]

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

If we're going down this hole then on what kind of team does Aman submit the kill?

I feel that this makes Araris a little more village if Aman flips cult.

Well, in this game the player submitting the kill would be down a bit more to how roles got distributed, such as Silver Bones or Silver Dust. I'll also note that I am very aware of how players perceive me liking to send in the kill, especially in games with roleblocks.

Another thing to note is that the White Fox isn't confirmed good this game. But I'm not sure that e!Devo would pick v!Aman to pull something like this on, given that he would definitely put up more resistance than some alternatives.

Aman confirming that he was roleblocked is nice at least. Hmm. I'm trying to think through why e!roleblocked!Aman wouldn't try some claim shenanigans, but I don't actually think there's a good option there.

Mat Aman

Edited April 29, 2023 by Araris Valerian
added vote retraction for clarity

[Amanuensis he/him]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

RIP. Why was he in Mixed then? For that matter, why is TJ in Mixed and why Better Than Null on Alv?

Appreciate JNV being in their own Quokka tier, but also, why?  

I still don’t v!read Mat post wise, but I moved him to the top of Mixed in case he did eventually claim protecting you. Now that he’s claimed to not have protected, he’s probably somewhere in the middle of that section. Mostly because it really didn’t look like anyone but Archer cared to save him and they look unpaired to me.

I’ll have to read C1 again for the posts that made me squint (forgor already) so I’ll get back to you.

Alv’s mostly vibes. I liked his first post responding to me, looking back on it. Second sentence has to do with remembering my playstyle enough for me not to dupe him, which I feel comes from v!Alv, since I was mostly known for being a scary elim back when we played a lot together.

JNV is basically Null+ because it always hurts to vote them but I have no real read of them yet, other than D’aww

ED1T:

Lots of mistakes. Sorry. Had to edit

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Illwei]

@Archer
@The Last Fæ
@Sart
@|TJ|
@JNV
@Steeldancer
@Alvron

I just want to make sure everyone is aware that Devo is claiming a RB on Aman, and we're currently assuming that that Aman was RBd carrying the kill.

there's no way to confirm that he's telling the truth about his role anyways yeah.

Ftr i'm perfectly fine with Aman dying I just don't feel very trustworthy about a N1 kill block, because that doesn't happen often.

Spoiler

I don't know if anyone else would choose to no-kill, but personally i would advocate for it as an Elim simply because the risk of death by kill would probably raise our starting number, and so if we weren't to kill every night it wouldn't be as bad as if we started out with a ratio of 4:13, assuming that they're starting with more than that.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Aman you are not denying that you're roleblocked, correct?

I’m not denying, no. I had no idea since I didn’t take an action (C1 Silver Dust worthless) and only just found out I was roleblocked from Elan’s announcement that I can’t act today either

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Spoiler

I don't know if anyone else would choose to no-kill, but personally i would advocate for it as an Elim simply because the risk of death by kill would probably raise our starting number, and so if we weren't to kill every night it wouldn't be as bad as if we started out with a ratio of 4:13, assuming that they're starting with more than that.

 

What about an E!SE world? You have unlimited protects from Wrath. But that's sort of why I think E!SE is OP.

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

there's no way to confirm that he's telling the truth about his role anyways yeah.

Should be able to pass the Dust tonight and any future items I get, technically. But I’m willing to die to protect an SE with Bones.

Personally don’t think elims would refuse to kill and Kas’ Insanity still needs an explanation.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Personally don’t think elims would refuse to kill and Kas’ Insanity still needs an explanation.

I sort of had a tendency to bang my head into the goalposts when defending as a kid.

Oh, sorry, not that one?

Edited to add:

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Aman confirming that he was roleblocked is nice at least. Hmm. I'm trying to think through why e!roleblocked!Aman wouldn't try some claim shenanigans, but I don't actually think there's a good option there.

How so?

@Amanuensis - As DeTess pointed out, assuming no Iron Will, the odds no one goes insane are 42%. No idea of relative prevalence of Iron Will but given I don't have it, I don't know if it's that weird I fell to the 5% ambient rate.

Edited to add 2:

This thread, or Devo @ me, in a single picture:

Spoiler

You're right; I couldn't handle it  Truly I have gone insane from it and this is a Lovecraftian game.

Spoiler

Well:

17 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Alv’s mostly vibes. I liked his first post responding to me, looking back on it. Second sentence has to do with remembering my playstyle enough for me not to dupe him, which I feel comes from v!Alv, since I was mostly known for being a scary elim back when we played a lot together.

Fair. I struggle to read him without PMs I think. Maybe even with them, sometimes.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I sort of had a tendency to bang my head into the goalposts when defending as a kid.

Oh, sorry, not that one?

Edited to add:

How so?

@Amanuensis - As DeTess pointed out, assuming no Iron Will, the odds no one goes insane are 42%. No idea of relative prevalence of Iron Will but given I don't have it, I don't know if it's that weird I fell to the 5% ambient rate.

Ah. I missed that (I assume it’s done calculating the percentage of each player combined?) but I’m not a maths guy so doesn’t really compute to me. Definitely possible, but that would require the elims not submitting the kill, which I find even less likely than the 5% chance, tbh  a Kas simultaneous N1 Protect and Kill makes more sense imo, given your C1

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Ah. I missed that (I assume it’s done calculating the percentage of each player combined?) but I’m not a maths guy so doesn’t really compute to me. Defiantly possible, but that would require the elims not submitting the kill, which I find even less likely than the 5% chance, tbh  a Kas simultaneous N1 Protect and Kill makes more sense imo, given your C1

Yeah - essentially 0.95^17, @Araris Valerian or @Devotary of Spontaneity if there's a better way to crunch.

It's the main reason I was adamant we needed the flip the roleblocked, yeah. It just feels - harder to do it when I know who got roleblocked. But again, does it functionally matter? For better or worse, I'm insane so my vote doesn't count. But yeah I cast it anyway.

I will note I almost expect Thief to be E!aligned since that's one way of getting around worries of Wrath - giving them a source of Silver Dust. Since items are lost by kills, Elims otherwise may have a tendency to run out and as much as I asked Illwei about E!SE, I don't personally buy it because IMO E!SE is bonkers.

So basically you think the best explanation is a Shade Expert protected me, but they didn't say anything?

Am curious as to why you think not submitting the kill is unlikely - I actually would have felt that a team with, ironically, you on it might consider that strategy.

[Amanuensis he/him]

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah - essentially 0.95^17, @Araris Valerian or @Devotary of Spontaneity if there's a better way to crunch.

It's the main reason I was adamant we needed the flip the roleblocked, yeah. It just feels - harder to do it when I know who got roleblocked. But again, does it functionally matter? For better or worse, I'm insane so my vote doesn't count. But yeah I cast it anyway.

I will note I almost expect Thief to be E!aligned since that's one way of getting around worries of Wrath - giving them a source of Silver Dust. Since items are lost by kills, Elims otherwise may have a tendency to run out and as much as I asked Illwei about E!SE, I don't personally buy it because IMO E!SE is bonkers.

So basically you think the best explanation is a Shade Expert protected me, but they didn't say anything?

Am curious as to why you think not submitting the kill is unlikely - I actually would have felt that a team with, ironically, you on it might consider that strategy.

It comes down to the outnumber wincon for me, but I suppose others might not have the same perspective. Especially with no exe on D1, it’s a bold strategy that inherently puts them even further behind

That said, some people did bring up possible reasons (like anticipating a White Fox), but that’s some big brain stuff that I don’t believe I would have thought of (given how I hadn’t until I read that)

So idk. Maybe I’m just hoping  

Also, as asked:

My limited TJ thoughts essentially boil down to

• Not paired with Archer (voted because he didn’t vibe with Archer theorizing about a larger elim team and stayed)
• Most likely E in a V/V/V C1 world given expression of suspicion of all three and minimal wagon movement
• + brought up an interesting point about e!Archer setting rigid conditionals
• +/- liked his take on my VitC discussion participation, although somewhat wary of that being a pocketing attempt

Which is basically to say that I he’s a lower priority exe than Archer, who has more working against him than for him, but I’d look at him (and Araris similarly) if Archer flips V. Don’t think it’s likely TJ and Araris are paired given they voted Archer together

Will say I ended up rethinking Araris’ call for vote transparency C1 and worry if that came from an E!Mindset. Forget who it was that said how much stress anonymous votes put on the elims, but I hadn’t thought about that until today

I believe there was someone else who made a similar post too, idk who  but same idea of VitC bad don’t do it Village

(It was not Illwei though, I liked her reasoning for it and she has other good things going for her)

@Kasimir

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
I should really proofread before I post lol

[JNV]

Its always a sad time when I gotta vote Amanuensis heres a consolation quokka for either getting coincidentallly roleblocked as a villager or getting picked off by bad luck as evil but I lean towards the latter for you know all the mechanicals 

Spoiler

Math wise odds of one and only one person going insane is .95 ^ 16 * .05 * 17 about .374 odds of absolutely no one going insane is .95 ^ 17 about .418 and this is no iron will at all with more iron will these go up a bit but like honestly what reason to not kill name any reason why not killing helps if anything delaying makes it worse cause you give crossbows the chance to use the low percentage and make your numbers bad stop killing in the late game not now plus like if there was a protect they cant protect anymore should definitely claim cause like confirmed extra life villager evils trade value of death for value of knocking down confirmed but two takes sorta deal 

Listen Amanuensis I always want to trust you but the facts of the case are clear so yeah you can have the quokka in the picture to keep you company in the afterlife theyre a very good boy good at snuggles dont give them too many treats though 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, JNV said:

Its always a sad time when I gotta vote Amanuensis heres a consolation quokka for either getting coincidentallly roleblocked as a villager or getting picked off by bad luck as evil but I lean towards the latter for you know all the mechanicals 

  Reveal hidden contents

Math wise odds of one and only one person going insane is .95 ^ 16 * .05 * 17 about .374 odds of absolutely no one going insane is .95 ^ 17 about .418 and this is no iron will at all with more iron will these go up a bit but like honestly what reason to not kill name any reason why not killing helps if anything delaying makes it worse cause you give crossbows the chance to use the low percentage and make your numbers bad stop killing in the late game not now plus like if there was a protect they cant protect anymore should definitely claim cause like confirmed extra life villager evils trade value of death for value of knocking down confirmed but two takes sorta deal 

Listen Amanuensis I always want to trust you but the facts of the case are clear so yeah you can have the quokka in the picture to keep you company in the afterlife theyre a very good boy good at snuggles dont give them too many treats though 

Thank you  I will cherish him

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Forget who it was that said how much stress anonymous votes put on the elims, but I hadn’t thought about that until today

Hi. It me. Y'all stressed me, Orlok, and Striker out so much in QF59 </3

If you really are Evil (I know you cannot say this one way or another in thread at this juncture, and again I'm insane and this is a huge train but I won't pretend this wasn't my fault if you are Village but bracketing all of that) - I guess this is you paying me back for the number of times I willingly C1ed you?

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I believe there was someone else who made a similar post too, idk who  but same idea of VitC bad don’t do it Village

Archer. It's why I sussed him at that point - felt very performative. Just said outright he'd heavily sus those people.

Think Araris's subsequent point about it being a lowcost way for Elims to mess with the votes makes sense though, and in that sense, can see why he's against it.

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That said, some people did bring up possible reasons (like anticipating a White Fox), but that’s some big brain stuff that I don’t believe I would have thought of (given how I hadn’t until I read that)

Think this came up in LG83, but you died pretty fast there. It was a big question there because we didn't know if it was arson ( >:( ) or just mindgames so people were theorising. Actually that might've been in a PM with Drake, nvm. Can't remember clearly by this juncture.

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It comes down to the outnumber wincon for me, but I suppose others might not have the same perspective as me. Especially with no exe on D1, it’s a bold strategy that inherently puts them even further behind

I don't disagree but I also feel that Elan would not put in an Elim team without giving them a way to manage Shade threat, given how unhappy Mat and Araris were last game, given they thought Araris, their Shade Expert, was fragile. And if there's a way to manage Shade threat, then I don't know that the numbers fundamentally matter. As JNV points out, shutting down potential Village crossbow users isn't bad for them either.

Why are Fae and Ash where they are on your reads, btw? Fae feels like a major wildcard so I struggle to read them.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah - essentially 0.95^17, @Araris Valerian or @Devotary of Spontaneity if there's a better way to crunch.

It's the main reason I was adamant we needed the flip the roleblocked, yeah. It just feels - harder to do it when I know who got roleblocked. But again, does it functionally matter? For better or worse, I'm insane so my vote doesn't count. But yeah I cast it anyway.

I will note I almost expect Thief to be E!aligned since that's one way of getting around worries of Wrath - giving them a source of Silver Dust. Since items are lost by kills, Elims otherwise may have a tendency to run out and as much as I asked Illwei about E!SE, I don't personally buy it because IMO E!SE is bonkers.

So basically you think the best explanation is a Shade Expert protected me, but they didn't say anything?

Am curious as to why you think not submitting the kill is unlikely - I actually would have felt that a team with, ironically, you on it might consider that strategy.

Well the odds of at least one person going insane are 1-(0.95^16(at max since I have iron will and players can have this without the wf role)). It's not that it's implausible for someone to be driven insane by horrors, but when it's only one person the odds are higher that it was due to being attacked since horrors are only 5% for any given player.

Your suspicions of/ambivalence towards Aman were one of the reasons I roleblocked him, incidentally. (Another is that he was a roleblocker who sold out the village in the previous game, but this is less relevant.)

E!thief isn't a good enough source of shade protection since the odds of getting silver dust are only 1/12. They'd need to have something else (or five players, but I consider this less likely).

I'd have hoped that a shade expert who protected you would have said something before me since it would be painful for both of us to be outed. With 37 hours before my claim and 2 hours since, the odds that this happened without the shade expert claiming are low.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

New Reads Bucket

  Hide contents

• Not Even Questioning It:  Kasimir
• Probably Village: Illwei, Steeldancer, DeTess, Devo
• Better Than Null: Alvron, Fae,
• Mixed Feelings: JNV, TJ, Sart, Aloha, Mat, Araris, Archer,
• Won’t Blink: Ash, TKN

 

Updated Reads

• Devo moved up a few tiers
• Araris brought lower (right) for joining my vote after I mentioned Silver Dust
• JNV dropped from Quokka tier for similar reason, but still wouldn’t exe anytime soon
• Mat dropped lower for not being the Shade Expert I thought he was

I also forgor why I my TJ and Sart are related  I don’t wanna reread again, but for some reason they’re either unpaired or paired

Will find time for that later because it might be pertinent

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Well the odds of at least one person going insane are 1-(0.95^16(at max since I have iron will and players can have this without the wf role)). It's not that it's implausible for someone to be driven insane by horrors, but when it's only one person the odds are higher that it was due to being attacked since horrors are only 5% for any given player.

I...

I just don't...

Honestly, I feel like my entire understanding of SE and E!Aman has flipped over, and my mind is irreparably shattered  

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Your suspicions of/ambivalence towards Aman were one of the reasons I roleblocked him, incidentally. (Another is that he was a roleblocker who sold out the village in the previous game, but this is less relevant.)

RIP. Yeah. I always want to V read him. But IDK the WiM thing is pretty crucial to me. But at the same time...Sigh.

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

E!thief isn't a good enough source of shade protection since the odds of getting silver dust are only 1/12. They'd need to have something else (or five players, but I consider this less likely).

I don't disagree and I do expect them to have something else but I think E!Thief has a nice bag of tricks that could disrupt Village. But that's off the top of my head. Maybe I'm wrong, IDK.

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'd have hoped that a shade expert who protected you would have said something before me since it would be painful for both of us to be outed. With 37 hours before my claim and 2 hours since, the odds that this happened without the shade expert claiming are low.

Yeah. That being said, this does imply that if we're committed to lynching Aman after all, everyone should be on the train by EoD. Don't want Silver Dust or just inventory passing into E hands.

Oh, and my thoughts on keeping you alive - mostly that everyone keeps forgetting the Elder Sign Pendant exists, and if we can pass you one, that and a Shade Expert should do it? Don't think they can afford to keep wasting kills. Believe I'm in contact with a player who has one but need to reconfirm.

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I also forgor why I my TJ and Sart are related  I don’t wanna reread again, but for some reason they’re either unpaired or paired

This I do not recall. Hmm... Possibly via condemnation of DeTess's opening? Both of them felt it was too wishy-washy and said nothing.

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity - Assume you have very low credences they withheld the kill? But no, still feel that possibility has to be examined last.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Assume you have very low credences they withheld the kill? But no, still feel that possibility has to be examined last.

I can see why the elims might not submit a kill, which is why I brought up the possibility in the first place, but I think it's more likely that the kill was roleblocked.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can see why the elims might not submit a kill, which is why I brought up the possibility in the first place, but I think it's more likely that the kill was roleblocked.

Agreed. We play to probability, not possibility. Order of inference here is clear I think. 

And if you did roleblock the kill, then, well, thanks for saving my life. Only hope that my contact can help me repay you.

[Amanuensis he/him]

44 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why are Fae and Ash where they are on your reads, btw? Fae feels like a major wildcard so I struggle to read them.

Fae is more of a pseudo-soulread. Wildcard, yes, but I don’t think in an elim way.

Ash could be village or elim, can’t say I have anything going against him other than the dingo stuff, and that’s more piggy backing off you. I didn’t love him being voted by Aloha or Mat, who I feel have more negative things going for them than Ash.

• Aman (6) Devotary, DeTess, TKN, Matrim, Araris, JNV
• Ashbringer (2) - Illwei, Aloha
• Matrim (1) - Sart
• Araris (1) - Archer
• Alvron (1) - Ashbringer

ED1T:

Will be heartbroken if it turns out the elims withheld the kill and e!Devo is framing me  probably still a White Fox if so, given too risky to fake in case I had an action worth taking

Will be extra heartbroken if it turns out the elims withheld the kill and got v!Devo to claim for it  

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I didn’t love him being voted by Aloha or Mat, who I feel have more negative things going for them than Ash.

• Aman (6) Devotary, DeTess, TKN, Matrim, Araris, JNV

In what sense, actually?

Though possible to ask about your Illrao read?

Recognise I am pretty much systematically asking about everyone at this juncture but you know my MO and how I work for analysis. At the end of the day, if you're Village, I do want to use this time wisely.

[Amanuensis he/him]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In what sense, actually?

Though possible to ask about your Illrao read?

Recognise I am pretty much systematically asking about everyone at this juncture but you know my MO and how I work for analysis. At the end of the day, if you're Village, I do want to use this time wisely.

My suspicion of Mat hasn’t changed from C1, now that he hasn’t claimed Shade Expert. Gave him more leeway because of the Silver Bones situation, but I could see a possible world where the elims didn’t care to save his extra life. I also think it’s more likely elims would get Silver Bones without SE, which seems to be the case, and I feel like v!SE!Mat would protect you (or at least, if I was a Shade Expert, you would be my first choice based off C1 thread control). Ultimately, it boils down to me being surprised he didn’t start tunneling me this game + the general observation that people made about his abnormal coolheaded responses.

Aloha is almost based entirely on the C1 case you presented for them. I haven’t gotten the same immediate Village lean I got from the last MR and that concerns me. Plus others look better in comparison imo

Illwei came into the night running and I liked a lot of her observations. Also kinda like the fact she didn’t immediately jump on my train. Recognize that elims might be reluctant to pursue what they know is a false positive, but I’m getting genuine desire to solve and coordinate the village from her. I suppose if anyone could Power Wolf it’s her, but that’s not where my intuition leads me

ED1T:

Oh and now that my role is out there, I’d been somewhat intentionally allowing myself to disengage in order to avoid being an early NK until I could Thieve a Pallid Mask, at which point I planned to ramp up and draw fire 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Alvron]

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Alvron: Any help from the Gods of Luck and Chance? I had a bad run last game so my Sacred Coin hasn't yet been reconsecrated in Elim blood  

For you, no.  I don't know what you did but they really don't like you right now.  I highly suggest you work out how you offended them and fix it.  Fast!

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Do you think it's worth sacrificing a roleblocker to maybe get an elim? Shade expert can't protect twice in a row.

If it's a guarantee kill on an elim, then yes.  A one for one deal is always in the village favour. For a maybe, it depends on the odds.

4 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

That vote on Alvron by Ash is really random. I don’t know that I trust it…

Rule of thumb: Don't trust any votes on Alvron, also, don't trust Alvron.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you guys (anyone reading this.) Odds the Elims withheld the kill to implicate whoever got RBed? I low key think this would not be impossible but I don't feel just anyone would be willing to withhold the kill.

Without a kill during the Day, I would say very low odds. Not impossible but if I was elim, I would've made sure to place kill orders.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Alvron said:

For you, no.  I don't know what you did but they really don't like you right now.  I highly suggest you work out how you offended them and fix it.  Fast!

If it's a guarantee kill on an elim, then yes.  A one for one deal is always in the village favour. For a maybe, it depends on the odds.

Rule of thumb: Don't trust any votes on Alvron, also, don't trust Alvron.

Without a kill during the Day, I would say very low odds. Not impossible but if I was elim, I would've made sure to place kill orders.

Another Shade Expert theory gone  sadge

[Kasimir he/him]

29 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Aloha is almost based entirely on the C1 case you presented for them. I haven’t gotten the same immediate Village lean I got from the last MR and that concerns me. Plus others look better in comparison imo

I take it you don't share Araris's contention that E!Aloha is less likely to be able to produce multiple suspicions?

25 minutes ago, Alvron said:

For you, no.  I don't know what you did but they really don't like you right now.  I highly suggest you work out how you offended them and fix it.  Fast!

I will when my body stops trying to kill me. Guess that was them.

25 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Without a kill during the Day, I would say very low odds. Not impossible but if I was elim, I would've made sure to place kill orders.

Do you feel there's a specific/particular profile of team that would play this way?

@Amanuensis - Same question for you.

My read off the cuff would be that I'd expect potential kill denial shenanigans from Archer, DeTess, Illwei, Devo, you, Alv, maybe Ash. IDK if Mat is that unorthodox, and that's excluding reads. IDK about Alv - I remember working with Ghostbloods Alv enough I could see him considering the strat but I don't feel it's something he'd go for. Problem is that a lot of those players right now are Village reads, sans Archer, Alv, and Ash.

29 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Illwei came into the night running and I liked a lot of her observations. Also kinda like the fact she didn’t immediately jump on my train. Recognize that elims might be reluctant to pursue what they know is a false positive, but I’m getting genuine desire to solve and coordinate the village from her. I suppose if anyone could Power Wolf it’s her, but that’s not where my intuition leads me

Fair. I will say I don't recall her power wolfing as a niche but I remember I've thrown her in subsequent games (including LG91) by being willing to go pretty wysiwyg when reading her.

29 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I also think it’s more likely elims would get Silver Bones without SE, which seems to be the case, and I feel like v!SE!Mat would protect you (or at least, if I was a Shade Expert, you would be my first choice based off C1 thread control)

I would have expected V!SE!Mat to have self-protected, I think. The only one he can trust is technically himself, especially on C1...

29 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ultimately, it boils down to me being surprised he didn’t start tunneling me this game + the general observation that people made about his abnormal coolheaded responses.

This definitely did surprise me, yes.

Does it influence your view of him that Mat hasn't actually claimed SE then? Because I feel like there's no real downside for E!Mat to just claim it.

Edited to add:

I'm conflicted but I'd add Araris to the list FWIW. I think Araris is a bit too bloodthirsty to withhold the kill but I think that the first rule of Araris is that he will switch up known aspects of how he plays. I struggle to see Araris willingly withholding the kill in a game with no compensatory mechanism and with Glowpaste, though.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Do you feel there's a specific/particular profile of team that would play this way?

@Amanuensis - Same question for you.

 

I would have expected V!SE!Mat to have self-protected, I think. The only one he can trust is technically himself, especially on C1...

 

Does it influence your view of him that Mat hasn't actually claimed SE then? Because I feel like there's no real downside for E!Mat to just claim it.

Not really tbh. In that I don’t have any good idea who would, other than if that was their plan from the start, I‘d expect them to pile up on me knowing there’d be no SE counterclaim repercussions + they might be able to swing an E!White Fox gambit later (anticipate that second part being less likely now since Devo’s claim looks pure and I’m bringing it up)

I’d think v!Mat would realize he wasn’t going to get NK’d given he already just almost got exed and people were still suspecting him, but irrelevant either way now

I think v!SE!him that didn’t protect you would refrain from claiming until absolutely necessary, but I also think e!SE!him would be cautious about oversharing after nearly dying D1. So I guess it doesn’t really impact my read from before he survived

ED1T:

@Kasimir apologies. Someday I will learn to proofread before posting lol

Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis