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Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

Kasimir

By Kasimir
in Sanderson Elimination

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Stick.

Stick.

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I did think it was interesting that you v!read me so immediately, but tbh from my perspective this swap is equally as interesting. I think I still read you as village since I normally can ID you early (hi Toucan) but your read of me in particular and, like TJ said, the sheer number of reads you have both are things that don’t really have the thought processes documented to back them up, if that makes sense.

Pfft you didn't even know I was Toucan smh. Think of it this way - in the early stages of the game players often latch onto tiny things that aren't so suspicious overall but suspicious enough for a C1. It's similar to that, except I latch onto minute details that give me the slightest reason to village read someone and I use that as starting PoE.

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh. Topic for discussion.

Do we think It would be a good idea to encourage another Lynchbait to claim, if they are willing, to verify Striker’s claim? It sounds like a role that could reoccur without unbalancing the game, and I’m slightly wary of this being an elim trick. Striker’s surprise did seem genuine, but it might be worth confirming.

Thoughts?

Perhaps we do this after the night turn is over :ph34r:

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Fifth Scholar
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>>> Dannex was removed! Night Two has begun! It will end on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 10:00 PM EST (-5:00 UTC).  Vote Count: Danex (6): Amanuensis, Ashbringer, Matrim's

Elandera
Elandera

Hello players! Go read the rules. Copy/pasting from your GM PM, any docs you can access, and any other PM is explicitly forbidden in the rules of SE. It is even more important in a blackout forma

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Fifth Scholar

Rule Clarifications: Player List:  

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Stick.

Stick.

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ashbringer said:

Perhaps another question - do we think the Eliminators knew about this mechanic last turn? Or did they find out with the rest of us?

I've been assuming they didn't know, but that's a good question. The only indication of any prior knowledge I was able to find was Randby's offhanded comment about there being maybe no dead doc (@StrikerEZ did you get dead doc access?) but I'm not super convinced of that being a solid elim tell. 

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Amanuensis

Amanuensis

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Is owing a debt like a role thing? Asking because it's bolded

Oh no, that's a my word thing. They can reveal whenever they're comfortable, if they need to, to earn my favor. I'm curious if there's more to the interaction, and promise it won't result in their murder.

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Perhaps we do this after the night turn is over :ph34r:

Oh yes. Just want it out there in case I die.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Stick.

Stick.

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh no, that's a my word thing. They can reveal whenever they're comfortable, if they need to, to earn my favor. I'm curious if there's more to the interaction, and promise it won't result in their murder.

Oh cool I understand :ph34r::ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

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Amanuensis

Amanuensis

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Perhaps another question - do we think the Eliminators knew about this mechanic last turn? Or did they find out with the rest of us?

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I've been assuming they didn't know, but that's a good question. The only indication of any prior knowledge I was able to find was Randby's offhanded comment about there being maybe no dead doc (@StrikerEZ did you get dead doc access?) but I'm not super convinced of that being a solid elim tell. 

Ooo good topic.

I kinda hope it was a surprise, but either way, it might be worth combing through reactions for patterns and anomalies.

I hope this will be cleared up after seeing the NK results and what happens after tomorrow's execution.

Edited by Amanuensis
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Mat

Mat

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Pfft you didn't even know I was Toucan smh. Think of it this way - in the early stages of the game players often latch onto tiny things that aren't so suspicious overall but suspicious enough for a C1. It's similar to that, except I latch onto minute details that give me the slightest reason to village read someone and I use that as starting PoE.

True, but that’s a retrospective point. I read you accurately early on anyway, as I typically tend to do :P

Or the slightest elim read, it would seem :ph34r: 

I don’t see how they could have known about that, unless they were privy to random bits of other information from the start. I suppose if it is a role thing and Striker’s lying, but if it’s just a removal mechanic I’d be surprised if they knew beforehand.

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Orlok Tsubodai

Orlok Tsubodai

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I've been assuming they didn't know, but that's a good question. The only indication of any prior knowledge I was able to find was Randby's offhanded comment about there being maybe no dead doc (@StrikerEZ did you get dead doc access?) but I'm not super convinced of that being a solid elim tell. 

If it’s a widespread mechanic, I think the elim team might have been able to guess that something was up based on their team size. I was predicting a smaller elim size based on blackout information, but if villagers persist after death to share role information and analysis in thread, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more standard team.

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xinoehp512

xinoehp512

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

@xinoehp512 you were active a lot the first day then dropped off. What are your current thoughts about players?

I don't believe your claim, though unlike Orlok I don't think it's impossible. Because of that, I'm slightly suspicious of TKN, though I admit I'm not sure what he gains from claiming.

Striker's reaction to being dead seems extremely village to me, for what good that does. (And also no elim would deliberately invoke suspicion on themselves like he claims to have done.)

I think I slightly v!read Bookwyrm for not immediately self-pressing when the trains were tied.

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Amanuensis

Amanuensis

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I don't believe your claim, though unlike Orlok I don't think it's impossible. Because of that, I'm slightly suspicious of TKN, though I admit I'm not sure what he gains from claiming.

Striker's reaction to being dead seems extremely village to me, for what good that does. (And also no elim would deliberately invoke suspicion on themselves like he claims to have done.)

I think I slightly v!read Bookwyrm for not immediately self-pressing when the trains were tied.

If you had to shoot a player tonight, who would you choose?

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Sart

Sart

Posted
Posted

Okay, I have officially caught up with the thread. Here are some of my thoughts.

I'm getting confused by PMs. Specifically, I'm confused if any have actually been created. I've seen some talk of a PM Spider role claimed by Wizard, that can only create PMs on Odd Nights. That seems like pretty tight PM restrictions. However, I saw some people asking for PMs, and I presumed they were getting them. I haven't gotten any, so I think I misunderstood that during the early shenanigans. Just to clarify though:

  • @The Wandering Wizard How many PMs can you make during odd nights? I'm presuming it's a single action, so probably only one PM per night, but I want clarity on that. Also, do you have to be part of the PM, or can it be between two separate players?
  • Has anyone actually received a PM? If so, how? With a role named PM Spider, I would expect it to be better at making PMs than any other role.

With that out of the way. I'm still confused by @Amanuensis. I don't believe his claim for a second. A Football team? At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the forum, located entirely in this game? I don't see it. If this role existed, I would want to see it immediately executed. However, I think the whole claim is a load of bunk. Thus, I voted for him, with the simple logic of lying=probably evil. However, @Orlok Tsubodai has had a more reasoned approach to this. If I'm understanding him correctly, he's concluding that Aman is actually a Villager just fishing for information.

The issue I have with that ties back to my earlier point. As far as I understand it, PMs are really limited this game. Fishing works great if you're able to be a trusted neutral, and can pull plenty of info. However, it doesn't seem like Aman could PM at all. How was he planning on getting any information from his claim? You could argue he was just doing it to stoke discussion in the thread, but that doesn't work either. It's like throwing dynamite to try and fuel a fire! Sure, you'll get plenty of damage, but most of it will be wasted, because it's built off a false premise.

That's why I've gotten more suspicious of him. In the world of V!Aman, he would have no way of making PMs, so how would he get a trust circle going? Well, maybe not "trust" circle, but a gathering of role claims, and in the best case, an alliance offer from the elims. That wouldn't pan out. In the world of E!Aman, the team might have an abundance of PM Spiders, which led him to overstate his position. He could reasonably assume that he could get a bunch of claims, and thus went on this gambit.

Barring mechanical information, I also don't like how he voted this cycle. He was the main one arguing for Striker to get removed, but then he pulls out at the last second. That's classic evil behavior. Start a train, and then ditch so that vote analysis misses you.

I'm worried I'm making a tunnel to china here, so I'm going to try tomorrow to analyze someone else besides him. The problem is, he's consumed so much of the thread discussion that's it's hard for me to look away. You know what? I'm just going to let RNG decide. Join me next time as I analyze... @Walin apparently.

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Amanuensis

Amanuensis

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Sart said:

Okay, I have officially caught up with the thread. Here are some of my thoughts.

I'm getting confused by PMs. Specifically, I'm confused if any have actually been created. I've seen some talk of a PM Spider role claimed by Wizard, that can only create PMs on Odd Nights. That seems like pretty tight PM restrictions. However, I saw some people asking for PMs, and I presumed they were getting them. I haven't gotten any, so I think I misunderstood that during the early shenanigans. Just to clarify though:

  • @The Wandering Wizard How many PMs can you make during odd nights? I'm presuming it's a single action, so probably only one PM per night, but I want clarity on that. Also, do you have to be part of the PM, or can it be between two separate players?
  • Has anyone actually received a PM? If so, how? With a role named PM Spider, I would expect it to be better at making PMs than any other role.

With that out of the way. I'm still confused by @Amanuensis. I don't believe his claim for a second. A Football team? At this time of year, at this time of day, in this part of the forum, located entirely in this game? I don't see it. If this role existed, I would want to see it immediately executed. However, I think the whole claim is a load of bunk. Thus, I voted for him, with the simple logic of lying=probably evil. However, @Orlok Tsubodai has had a more reasoned approach to this. If I'm understanding him correctly, he's concluding that Aman is actually a Villager just fishing for information.

The issue I have with that ties back to my earlier point. As far as I understand it, PMs are really limited this game. Fishing works great if you're able to be a trusted neutral, and can pull plenty of info. However, it doesn't seem like Aman could PM at all. How was he planning on getting any information from his claim? You could argue he was just doing it to stoke discussion in the thread, but that doesn't work either. It's like throwing dynamite to try and fuel a fire! Sure, you'll get plenty of damage, but most of it will be wasted, because it's built off a false premise.

That's why I've gotten more suspicious of him. In the world of V!Aman, he would have no way of making PMs, so how would he get a trust circle going? Well, maybe not "trust" circle, but a gathering of role claims, and in the best case, an alliance offer from the elims. That wouldn't pan out. In the world of E!Aman, the team might have an abundance of PM Spiders, which led him to overstate his position. He could reasonably assume that he could get a bunch of claims, and thus went on this gambit.

Barring mechanical information, I also don't like how he voted this cycle. He was the main one arguing for Striker to get removed, but then he pulls out at the last second. That's classic evil behavior. Start a train, and then ditch so that vote analysis misses you.

I'm worried I'm making a tunnel to china here, so I'm going to try tomorrow to analyze someone else besides him. The problem is, he's consumed so much of the thread discussion that's it's hard for me to look away. You know what? I'm just going to let RNG decide. Join me next time as I analyze... @Walin apparently.

If it helps, I'm village reading you for your hyperfocus on this.

 

Does anyone have good reason to lean v!Silho?

Edited by Amanuensis
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The Wandering Wizard

The Wandering Wizard

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Sart said:

@The Wandering Wizard How many PMs can you make during odd nights? I'm presuming it's a single action, so probably only one PM per night, but I want clarity on that. Also, do you have to be part of the PM, or can it be between two separate players?

A single PM and it doesn't have to have me. And the PM isn't created until the next day. So I already sent in the order but I won't have it until tomorrow.

My even night action helps to balance only being able to make a single one on one PM every odd night.

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