Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Amanuensis he/him]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The argument being that e!Fadran would act as he did regardless of Steel’s alignment, in order to cast doubt on the scan result?

That and the whole "Confirmed Villager" role thing. It would be pretty next-level Troll for Kas to give that only to Fadran and not one elim too. So either v!Fadran is honest and there's an elim who can evade scans or e!Fadran made it up to confuse our scans / draw scans away from himself. If Tani, Steel, and Sart really are elims, we're probably not at exlo yet, so my thought is get rid of Fadran now and worry about an e!Confirmed Villager as we go forward

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In all seriousness, though, what's the Archer case? Is it just PoE?

I think that Steel's claim of Tie Guy having 2 elims is designed to implicate the 4 people that weren't switched out of the vote. Hence, my elim credences for the 4 people that were switched out go up by a bit, and Archer is the only one of those left. And today his focus on Drake along with the push to stop NKs both feel pretty off to me. I still have a gut village read on him from our PM, but that is significantly outweighed at this point.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think that Steel's claim of Tie Guy having 2 elims is designed to implicate the 4 people that weren't switched out of the vote. Hence, my elim credences for the 4 people that were switched out go up by a bit, and Archer is the only one of those left. And today his focus on Drake along with the push to stop NKs both feel pretty off to me. I still have a gut village read on him from our PM, but that is significantly outweighed at this point.

Also I'd kinda be surprised if there wasn't an E!PM Spider and Archer has gone on record to say he doesn't think it's a super useful role for the elims, so they could all be village

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

That and the whole "Confirmed Villager" role thing. It would be pretty next-level Troll for Kas to give that only to Fadran and not one elim too.

If I didn’t have very high village!Aman credences I would call this a slip

Regardless, I think “it would be pretty next-level troll” is a pretty good indicator that Kas and Fifth considered doing it

Again, I would not discount the possibility that there is a single “Confirmed Villager” in the game and that they are evil

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think that Steel's claim of Tie Guy having 2 elims is designed to implicate the 4 people that weren't switched out of the vote. Hence, my elim credences for the 4 people that were switched out go up by a bit, and Archer is the only one of those left. And today his focus on Drake along with the push to stop NKs both feel pretty off to me. I still have a gut village read on him from our PM, but that is significantly outweighed at this point.

Yeah, pretty much this.

57 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also I'd kinda be surprised if there wasn't an E!PM Spider and Archer has gone on record to say he doesn't think it's a super useful role for the elims, so they could all be village

Isn’t Archer a PM spider?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Isn’t Archer a PM spider?

That's my point. He gave reasons to not witch hunt his role

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That's my point. He gave reasons to not witch hunt his role

Awfully convenient

 

Where do you fall on JNV?

The sacred numbers are convinced JNV is the most suspicious living player, followed by Fae, and only then do the likes of Fadran and Archer come up.

However, the sacred numbers are also convinced that Silhouette was the second elim in Orlok's Tie Guy scan, so that probably explains it.

 

I think, technically, due to the Monty Hall problem, everyone who voted for Striker D1 other than Bookwyrm is slightly more likely to be evil.

[Amanuensis he/him]

35 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Awfully convenient

 

Where do you fall on JNV?

The sacred numbers are convinced JNV is the most suspicious living player, followed by Fae, and only then do the likes of Fadran and Archer come up.

However, the sacred numbers are also convinced that Silhouette was the second elim in Orlok's Tie Guy scan, so that probably explains it.

 

I think, technically, due to the Monty Hall problem, everyone who voted for Striker D1 other than Bookwyrm is slightly more likely to be evil.

I could see e!JNV, yeah. They did open our PM N1 going into D2, before RandBy rudely revealed that I wasn't actually Neutral, so possible they were about to reveal to me their evilness for a deal >:(

(((Curse you Random Bystander!)))

That said, I kinda default read JNV's tone as Village and that's been no different in our PM. e!JNV has duped me before so I'd probably defer to others

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I could see e!JNV, yeah. They did open our PM N1 going into D2, before RandBy rudely revealed that I wasn't actually Neutral, so possible they were about to reveal to me their evilness for a deal >:(

Tbf, I've PM'd neutrals with the intention of making a deal before as a villager

The neutral in question subsequently rejected my payment and then still continued to do everything he could to help the village

Guess who it was

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

That said, I kinda default read JNV's tone as Village and that's been no different in our PM. e!JNV has duped me before so I'd probably defer to others

See, this is the thing. I village read JNV too, but I am not confident in that read.

It sits wrong going after somebody I village read, even though frankly the mechanical analysis points towards JNV on at least a couple of counts:

1. PoE with Orlok's tie guy scan still includes Matrim, and JNV has announced a village scan on Matrim, therefore all of that PoE suspicion on Matrim commutes to JNV.
2. PoE on the assumption that the elims would be given a PM Spider includes JNV.
3. The (admittedly very small) Monty Hall thing with the Striker scan making e!JNV slightly more likely.

Then again... Most of those things also apply to Archer, so I'm not sure exactly why the sacred numbers are insisting JNV is more suspicious...

[Ashbringer he/him]

Do we trust Orlok? Because I'm wondering what we should do about that scan.

2 Elims in Ash, Mat, Drake, Archer, TJ, Steel, Shining, and TKN.

Of those TJ, Steel, Shining, and TKN are dead. Steel was scanned Elim (by Orlok), and the rest we don't really know about (although Shining and TKN were Elim kills and thus probably Village).

That leaves 1 Elim in Ash/Mat/Drake/Archer/dead-TJ. 

I will say, I'm Village, but if you guys think E!Threadmaster!Ash is a high possibility, definitely don't go for Drake here. Aman and Fadran together could take me down but that has to be before one of them gets NKed, and also depends on V!Fadran.

E!Steel means that we don't have the TJ-Archer team. Mat was scanned village by JNV. Drake shot e!Tani, TJ, and allegedly attempted to shoot Archer.

We could go out of that group, assuming we've got at least 3 villagers in Ash/Mat/Drake/Archer and start hunting for the elims in Aman/Wiz/Fae/Fadran/Araris/JNV/Biplet. 

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Then again... Most of those things also apply to Archer, so I'm not sure exactly why the sacred numbers are insisting JNV is more suspicious...

Wait, I know why that is.

It's because Archer voted for Steeldancer both D3 and D5.

During D3 this was a tie between Walin and Steel where Steel was in legitimate danger but survived.

During D5 this was when Steeldancer got voted out, but Archer was one of the earlier and more vocal votes for Steel.

Hmmmmmmm.

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Do we trust Orlok? Because I'm wondering what we should do about that scan.

2 Elims in Ash, Mat, Drake, Archer, TJ, Steel, Shining, and TKN.

Of those TJ, Steel, Shining, and TKN are dead. Steel was scanned Elim (by Orlok), and the rest we don't really know about (although Shining and TKN were Elim kills and thus probably Village).

That leaves 1 Elim in Ash/Mat/Drake/Archer/dead-TJ. 

I will say, I'm Village, but if you guys think E!Threadmaster!Ash is a high possibility, definitely don't go for Drake here. Aman and Fadran together could take me down but that has to be before one of them gets NKed, and also depends on V!Fadran.

E!Steel means that we don't have the TJ-Archer team. Mat was scanned village by JNV. Drake shot e!Tani, TJ, and allegedly attempted to shoot Archer.

We could go out of that group, assuming we've got at least 3 villagers in Ash/Mat/Drake/Archer and start hunting for the elims in Aman/Wiz/Fae/Fadran/Araris/JNV/Biplet. 

I think e!Orlok is possible, but has a lot of dependencies it requires.

Silhouette was not killed by the elims, and honestly, Silhouette + Steel being the 2 elims in Orlok's scan might be the simplest explanation at this point.

Fae/Wiz team, anyone?

Edited February 12, 2023 by DrakeMarshall

[Ashbringer he/him]

9 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Silhouette was not killed by the elims, and honestly, Silhouette + Steel being the 2 elims in Orlok's scan might be the simplest explanation at this point.

... ah. I remembered Aman talking about it but I think he was talking about e!you 

Simplest explanation, maybe, but it's also the most convenient and idk if going along that way is the best idea. I'm not sure what my plan is right now.

[|TJ| he/him]

i think vote manip for elims in a unflipped game is a tiny bit unbalanced which is the only reason im thinking v!silho. 

@aman you were wondering about tanis action in d5. but what if that could be justified by the possibility that steeldancer might not have actually copied the tieguy role and if they avoided the tie, then steel might not have to lie about using it and subsequently not get caught in the said lie. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay, so, 10 players left (excluding myself). If we accept e!Tani, e!Steel, and e!Sart, probably only two elims left max... right?

1. Ashbringer
2. The Wandering Wizard
3. Channelknight Fadran
4. JNV
5. Matrim's Dice
6. Biplet
7. Metalcognition
8. Archer
9. DrakeMarshall
10. The last Fae in the Woods

Just remembered Fadran was the alternative exe on D5, apart from Steel and Sart, so no way all three elims got pressure that day, right?

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

As the thread is now at manageable levels (and my exam report has been submitted), Tallybot has retired for the moment.

Quote

Vote Count:

Archer (2): Araris, Drake
Fadran (1): Aman
Drake (1): Archer

While I may not be as prone to error as Tallybot, I am still functioning on two hours of sleep and a lot of painkillers and Tiger balm while clearing backlog, so I ask that you still @ me if you see an error with this votecount. Thanks.

10 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Tbf, I've PM'd neutrals with the intention of making a deal before as a villager

The neutral in question subsequently rejected my payment and then still continued to do everything he could to help the village

This sounds made-up.

Sir

Why would a neutral do this they're literally neutral that's not their wincon

[Archer he/him]

On 11/02/2023 at 11:28 AM, Araris Valerian said:

So {Drake, Archer} only works if one of them is a Confirmed Villager, right? Not saying that’s too implausible, since knowing what Tie Guy does could let them throw off the numbers, but it does seem risky to deliberately place yourself in a pool of people that are going to be getting exed without a ton of feedback.

Me getting Confirmed Villager would be extremely Trolly.

18 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

No I would not agree I don’t think

would not voting from here on out give us a better chance at winning?

Quoted the wrong Drake post, but in response to this general conversation: it's a lot easier for you to shoot another villager if you have total impunity. You can make an argument in retrospect and sweep it under the rug. Whereas proposing your kill in advance and being scrutinized for it means you at least have to aim for a suspicious villager because it demonstrates you've thought it through and didn't, for example, make a terribly rash decision and shoot Aman quite unhelpfully. I realize that calling your shot exposes you to being blocked, but you can at least discuss it in a PM or drop an explanation of your kill near EOD. 

12 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I could see e!JNV, yeah. They did open our PM N1 going into D2, before RandBy rudely revealed that I wasn't actually Neutral, so possible they were about to reveal to me their evilness for a deal >:(

(((Curse you Random Bystander!)))

That said, I kinda default read JNV's tone as Village and that's been no different in our PM. e!JNV has duped me before so I'd probably defer to others

I can confirm that JNV is a PM Spider - Aman isn't aggressively gaslightning, probably. JNV has had a low thread presence, so I don't have a read on them. 

11 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Fae/Wiz team, anyone?

And risk two of them dying if either is scanned? And who makes a claim that's just, "I got told who a villager is at the start of the game"? It's unintuitive. 

3 hours ago, |TJ| said:

i think vote manip for elims in a unflipped game is a tiny bit unbalanced which is the only reason im thinking v!silho. 

You thinking vote manip is villagey is eerily similar to Silh's defense of themselves. I'm not entirely convinced TJ isn't evil. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

I think I’m going to stop tin foiling Drake. While being aware of a Beaglegate 2.0 is always a good thing, he’s right that he voted both Steel and Sart very early.

I also dunno about Fadran now. I can’t really see him with any teammates. @Channelknight Fadran do you remember why you Trolled Walin N1?

Edited February 12, 2023 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Okay, so, 10 players left (excluding myself). If we accept e!Tani, e!Steel, and e!Sart, probably only two elims left max... right?

1. Ashbringer
2. The Wandering Wizard
3. Channelknight Fadran
4. JNV
5. Matrim's Dice
6. Biplet
7. Metalcognition
8. Archer
9. DrakeMarshall
10. The last Fae in the Woods

 Just remembered Fadran was the alternative exe on D5, apart from Steel and Sart, so no way all three elims got pressure that day, right?

Probably not. Though a Steel, Sart, and Tani team so far has pretty weak thread control potential.

My current question is: How quickly did the elims know that this would be a game revolving around scans/roleclaims, and how much, if at all, did they fake scans/roleclaims to get their teammates cleared?

Because the gambit potential in this game is nearly unlimited, but it’s not quite as accessible as a WGG or something. Coming up with a convincing fake role takes some work, and setting up a fake scan requires either the Confirmed Villager role or intentionally linking two elims together. Or a very well timed Troll.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Also I think Archer might be V for suggesting Drake stop killing. If he’s immune to roles, it’s not a threat to him, and the elims have lost enough teammates that Drake shooting villagers would get them closer to parity.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Also I think Archer might be V for suggesting Drake stop killing. If he’s immune to roles, it’s not a threat to him, and the elims have lost enough teammates that Drake shooting villagers would get them closer to parity.

I don’t think he ever claimed to be immune to NKs, and even if he did, I’m skeptical of that.

[Amanuensis he/him]

8 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don’t think he ever claimed to be immune to NKs, and even if he did, I’m skeptical of that.

Drake claimed to shoot Archer N3. It failed

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

This sounds made-up.

Sir

Why would a neutral do this they're literally neutral that's not their wincon

That’s a great question Kas. Why would a neutral do that?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Drake claimed to shoot Archer N3. It failed

Well then. Maybe the suggestion itself is village, but it seems like that role fits pretty well on an elim team.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well then. Maybe the suggestion itself is village, but it seems like that role fits pretty well on an elim team.

I’d agree, but Sart appeared to have a similar role (albeit with the result “attempted” instead of “failed”) so idk. It’s not a bad theory but I have some reservations

That said, it might be a good idea to exe Archer and have Drake NK JNV.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

You thinking vote manip is villagey is eerily similar to Silh's defense of themselves. I'm not entirely convinced TJ isn't evil. 

bro read properly smh. i said that role is the only thing why i would consider v!silho, other than that they felt evil. i literally pushed e!silho early game. 

[Channelknight Fadran]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I think I’m going to stop tin foiling Drake. While being aware of a Beaglegate 2.0 is always a good thing, he’s right that he voted both Steel and Sart very early.

I also dunno about Fadran now. I can’t really see him with any teammates. @Channelknight Fadran do you remember why you Trolled Walin N1?

Walin may have requested my services in the thread, but I had no such obligations against trolling them.