Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar

[JNV]

I kinda find myself confused in general by the cases presented maybe my hreading comprehension is trashed Ive been very tired recently but what exactly is the public Stick reasoning ok and the xnioehp reasoning from Stick is the specific picking of Bookwyrm in D1 but not voting Bookwyrm D2 plus general reticence and the Archer vote from Novel comes from the assumption Szeth was the night kill 

Ive read through everything like twice and my head hurts and Ive kind of come to the conclusion Im not voting Stick today beyond some brief paranoia founded on weak assumptions it doesnt feel amazing and the reasoning is just a bit fragile and it doesnt feel good and yeah honestly like Id like them dead at some point just cause paranoia alarm bells all that but I dont really know it feels wobbly I think Im just not that suspicious of them for whatever reason like I kinda want to be at this point itd be easier but no theres just confusion 

Araris is definitely off from what I think of as their playstyle but theyve said theyre sick so Im not really sure how to evaluate that and like if theyre evil its a definite shift in behavior fro what sort of lives in my brain as their standard which oh well 

Archer ok like Archer Ive been backreading and the thing thats getting to me just a bit is this post

And if the threads get merged later and this vanishes this is the 'oh boy 15 quotes' post on like page 7 of D1 like this throws a lot of shade makes a lot of implications and doesnt really do anything with it like it tries for and like they have opinions I cant really account for that dont trail back to established things they have a bit of wobble honestly Im not being very articulate right now sorry my head hurrts 

Wobbly thoughts that probably arent founded in anything other than my brain at most one of Stick Alvron Elkanah are evil at most one of Archer Araris are evil a significant quantity of evils just havent been challenged or prodded in any way Chanarach for the love of the Stormfather can you kill one of the many many people were wobbling over to get us some conclusive information thanks love you 

Ok my head hurts Im tired Archer but like you have to realize its founded in my brain going hm at posts and not like actual logic and reasoning Im so tired bye bye goodnight 

Heres a quokka thats just me just very confused and wobbled

Spoiler

 

[Elkanah]

Hello. I'm here. My family was visited by the Covid fairy. I've only minimally been keeping up with the thread and I apologize. I'm going to go and read this cycle and provide thoughts shortly.

[Kasimir]

19 minutes ago, JNV said:

I kinda find myself confused in general by the cases presented maybe my hreading comprehension is trashed Ive been very tired recently but what exactly is the public Stick reasoning ok and the xnioehp reasoning from Stick is the specific picking of Bookwyrm in D1 but not voting Bookwyrm D2 plus general reticence and the Archer vote from Novel comes from the assumption Szeth was the night kill 

Ive read through everything like twice and my head hurts and Ive kind of come to the conclusion Im not voting Stick today beyond some brief paranoia founded on weak assumptions it doesnt feel amazing and the reasoning is just a bit fragile and it doesnt feel good and yeah honestly like Id like them dead at some point just cause paranoia alarm bells all that but I dont really know it feels wobbly I think Im just not that suspicious of them for whatever reason like I kinda want to be at this point itd be easier but no theres just confusion 

Araris is definitely off from what I think of as their playstyle but theyve said theyre sick so Im not really sure how to evaluate that and like if theyre evil its a definite shift in behavior fro what sort of lives in my brain as their standard which oh well 

Archer ok like Archer Ive been backreading and the thing thats getting to me just a bit is this post

And if the threads get merged later and this vanishes this is the 'oh boy 15 quotes' post on like page 7 of D1 like this throws a lot of shade makes a lot of implications and doesnt really do anything with it like it tries for and like they have opinions I cant really account for that dont trail back to established things they have a bit of wobble honestly Im not being very articulate right now sorry my head hurrts 

Wobbly thoughts that probably arent founded in anything other than my brain at most one of Stick Alvron Elkanah are evil at most one of Archer Araris are evil a significant quantity of evils just havent been challenged or prodded in any way Chanarach for the love of the Stormfather can you kill one of the many many people were wobbling over to get us some conclusive information thanks love you 

Ok my head hurts Im tired Archer but like you have to realize its founded in my brain going hm at posts and not like actual logic and reasoning Im so tired bye bye goodnight 

Heres a quokka thats just me just very confused and wobbled

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Yeah you know what I'm good with Stick.

Sorry @Alvron I never should've doubted the gods of luck and chance.

[Stick.]

Archer 

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Archer 

Can you give me three players you currently read as Village, without qualification?

I'm backreading your Elim games right now: I agree that killing Illwei and Mat doesn't seem like your MO, but I only am more willing to accept V!Stick with your later part of D3. D1 to early D3 don't look that great to me.

You're not wrong about softwalking V reads so the fact you have a strong V read on Bookwyrm is telling, but I notice as well that you have a dearth of unqualified V reads, which is exactly (as you pointed out, ironically) also the case for V you. I would also argue that E you tends to softwalk V reads but does particularly does the V reads when you feel the player can't not be read as Village.

[Stick.]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Can you give me three players you currently read as Village, without qualification?

I'm backreading your Elim games right now: I agree that killing Illwei and Mat doesn't seem like your MO, but I only am more willing to accept V!Stick with your later part of D3. D1 to early D3 don't look that great to me.

You're not wrong about softwalking V reads so the fact you have a strong V read on Bookwyrm is telling, but I notice as well that you have a dearth of unqualified V reads, which is exactly (as you pointed out, ironically) also the case for V you. I would also argue that E you tends to softwalk V reads but does particularly does the V reads when you feel the player can't not be read as Village.

Three village. You Turtle Shining

I’ve shared my thoughts on turtle and I’m willing to put them down as mild village because of their n1. 
Shining’s read is based only on their most recent post where they’re essentially saying they’ll vote Archer/Araris next cycle, and since I’m pretty confident at least one of those two is evil, I’m feeling good about that Shining post because they’re now committed to it. 

[Ashbringer]

Vote Count!

• _Stick_ (4): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher
• Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (3): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV, _Stick_
• Elkanah (1): Cash67

 

Hour + 15 minutes left!

[Kasimir]

23 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Three village. You Turtle Shining

I’ve shared my thoughts on turtle and I’m willing to put them down as mild village because of their n1. 
Shining’s read is based only on their most recent post where they’re essentially saying they’ll vote Archer/Araris next cycle, and since I’m pretty confident at least one of those two is evil, I’m feeling good about that Shining post because they’re now committed to it. 

You...don't have any prior to Shining having shown up with that post?

Edited to add: @_Stick_ Nvm found your post with Mat sorry. Interesting I'm still alive if so. Would likely point to an E!JNV world but feel we're kinda at the point where the Village split is this clear.

Edited to add 2: You know what is throwing me off.

1. I read EoD D1 Stick as Village.

2. I cannot read JNV's post that I responded to as anything but E in light of hardjumping onto Archer instead of Elk and I say this despite also being suspicious of Archer and I don't know what the bloody fricking hells is wrong with me.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Kasimir

[Elkanah]

Wow, it seems several people have been down and out. I am chastened for my abysmal activity level.

That said, I'm afraid I don't have the time or ability to deep dive right now. I really felt off about Stick switching to save bookwyrm on day one and she would have been my vote day two. Then Bookwyrm flipped village and I thought, well, maybe she was just right. I currently have her at 'maybe E' and I wouldn't mind lynching her today. 

I'm currently more interested in Xino. The self preservation vote that wasn't strikes me as really weird. I need to go back and remember the other reasons I suspect them, but if I post this soon, maybe I can be a little useful to the thread. 

I'll also admit I strongly considered voting for myself day 2 to make the tie, but decided it might be just a little too destructive to the village as my flip really wouldn't have revealed much and I still suspected Bookwyrm.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Wow, it seems several people have been down and out. I am chastened for my abysmal activity level.

That said, I'm afraid I don't have the time or ability to deep dive right now. I really felt off about Stick switching to save bookwyrm on day one and she would have been my vote day two. Then Bookwyrm flipped village and I thought, well, maybe she was just right. I currently have her at 'maybe E' and I wouldn't mind lynching her today. 

I'm currently more interested in Xino. The self preservation vote that wasn't strikes me as really weird. I need to go back and remember the other reasons I suspect them, but if I post this soon, maybe I can be a little useful to the thread. 

I'll also admit I strongly considered voting for myself day 2 to make the tie, but decided it might be just a little too destructive to the village as my flip really wouldn't have revealed much and I still suspected Bookwyrm.

Bro. Just for the record, this almost certainly guarantees a tie: Alv hasn't voted yet, there are three vote manip trains, and the current trains are 3-4. I respect not feeling certain, but just to make it clear: you want a tie?

Edited to add: Vote manip Blades, my bad.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Kasimir

[Elkanah]

I do love ties , but fair enough. I don't have anything one way or the other on Archer and I do suspect Stick. Xino Stick

 

[Stick.]

Ok

What if we all went Chantera

[Chantara]

Hey y’all, sorry for disappearing. I had a fever of 102 for three days (for those of you in Celsius-lands, that’s like 38-39ish). It wasn’t pretty. 

I’m going to start with who is being voted rn:

Stick: they’re not reading E to me, but I also haven’t read through D2 and N2 yet… no time now though since rollover is in a half hour. That said, they don’t read V to me either. I also had been low-key E reading Mat (no reason, just gut), and I was definitely wrong about that so I’m probably wrong here too. 

Archer: I think they’re village. I haven’t seen anything from them that has stuck out to me as an elim-move. 
 

Elk: mild E read… unsure though. In the games I’ve played with them it seems like they just like to be bringers of chaos so idk. 

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Ok

What if we all went Chantera

Rude.

Disregard everything I said. Stick

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

2. I cannot read JNV's post that I responded to as anything but E in light of hardjumping onto Archer instead of Elk and I say this despite also being suspicious of Archer and I don't know what the bloody fricking hells is wrong with me.

I'll say this: I was probably hard-considering how much I bought V!Stick and maybe V!Archer, but JNV's post really struck me the wrong way. I do know JNV was suspicious of Stick until just about now, apparently, and I dislike the fact that the post is framed as a <Stick, Archer> choice despite also including Elk formally in PoE.

My response to that post at this point is: I don't really know about Stick, I don't want a tie given potential vote manip, but if JNV wants Archer dead and is protective of Stick, I'm getting on the other train, simpliciter.

[Alvron]

Stick.

[Stick.]

Archer 

[Ashbringer]

Time!

Rollover Shortly.

[Ashbringer]

LG91 Night 3: Bloodwood

Two was a lot. More than was wanted. The sun-scorched walls of Earthen Truth demanded retribution, and the Stones Below sent a gift. At the scene of one of the murders - whichever one it was - someone found a small stick. For some reason, that someone brought it to the meeting to discuss that morning.

"It could be evidence," they said.

"It is a stick," was the reply from someone in the crowd.

Someone else's ears perked up. The Shamans may have control over the Honorblades usually, but the average Shin - especially in Earthen Truth - knew what they were capable of. Of Soulcasting and its principles.

"Who said that!" They demanded. The crowd cleared around a figure, looking nervously from person to person.

"What's your name!" someone yelled.

"... Stick" was the reply.

The crowd needed little more. The warriors among them new what to do. Blood stained the wood and dirt of Earthen Truth, and when all was said and done, an Honorblade was found by someone.

As was the sigil of the Tukari.

 

_Stick_ was executed! They were a Tukari Invader and the Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade!

Shalash's Honorblade has been redistributed!

 

Vote Count:

• _Stick_ (7): Araris Valerian, Shining Silhouette / Ookla the Debonair, Kasimir, Chantara, Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher, Alvron, Elkanah
• Archer / Ookla the Paragrapher (2): The Unknown Novel / Ookla the Unknown, JNV
• Chantara (1): _Stick_
• Elkanah (1): Cash67

(Note that Stick's vote switch to Archer was past 11:00)

 

The turn will end on Tuesday November 29th at 11:00 PM PST.

 

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @ookla the POKE VOTE / Turtle- Evelt-son-Urtal
2. @Araris Valerian - Hadrian-son-Penrod
3. @The Unknown Novel - Dali-son-Nar
4. The Wandering Wizard - Tweedle-son-son-Dumb - Shin High Council
5. Ookla the Tall / Matrim's Dice - Dazi-son-ron - Shin High Council
6. @JNV - Jen-child-Verin
7. Ookla the Perpetual / The Bookwyrm - Rizam-son-Azram - Shin High Council
8. @Shining Silhouette - Cheshire-son-Cat
9. @Ookla the Forgotten / xinoehp512 - Jet-son-Blanc
10. @Kasimir - Kvaseth-son-Wysan
11. @InfiniteInsanity
12. @Chantara
13. _Stick_ - Tukari Invader, Bearer of Shalash's Honorblade
14. @Cash67 - Egg-son-Chicken
15. Illwei - Shin High Council, Bearer of Paliah's Honorblade
16. @Archer - Tweedle-son-Dee
17. @Alvron - Izzy-daughter-Ammi
18. @Tani - Daalna
19. @Elkanah - Sun-son-son-Tsu
20. Ookla the Omnicient / Szeth_Pancakes - Shin High Council

 

[Kasimir]

@Alvron 

You knew this was coming.

Sacred Coin, please accept this offering.

Happy to go V!Araris, V!Archer off of this.

Not sure about Chantara, could be last minute distancing, could be not, let's take a look later.

[Archer]

Nice! Shalash's blade was an important item that could do:

• Illumination: Prevent any roleblocks, scans, or vote manip targeting self and target other player (Adhesion, Gravitation, Transformation, Transportation, Cohesion) for 1 cycle. (Day or Night)
• Transformation: Learn what Honorblades target player holds, if any. (Night only) 

I'd say this implies the scanner started in village hands, if it exists. If the Shaman ever figures out who that was, let us know! 

Edit: bussing is the optimal move so the elims get the blade back, right? 

I had a theory that newer players who aren't elims are more likely to call people Ookla names, but that didn't turn up anything. Elims would have known each other from the group doc by their OG names and stuck with them. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ookla the Paragrapher

[Kasimir]

21 minutes ago, Ookla the Paragrapher said:

I'd say this implies the scanner started in village hands, if it exists. If the Shaman ever figures out who that was, let us know! 

Edit: bussing is the optimal move so the elims get the blade back, right? 

Not sure if Blade is distributed among those

I have known who the scanner is for a few Turns now, and quite honestly, am not sure if I think they're Village so YMMV.

Edited to add: @Ookla the Paragrapher

On 11/15/2022 at 8:52 AM, Ashbringer said:

When an Honorblade Bearer is executed, their blades will be given to random players.

Edited to add 2:

Ninjaed by Archer, so had to c/p.

I want to briefly go back over last cycle before doing more vote analysis, but the short of it is that Alv, Araris, and Archer all come out looking fairly Village to me. Let's take a quick look at the votes:

I open the cycle fed-up and vote for Xino. Stick quickly seconds it.

Archer opens the Stick train. This is two cycles in a row Archer has looked at Stick and created a Stick train - he gets some Village credit for it. Twenty five minutes later, Araris backs him up. He also gets Village credit for this, in my eyes.

Quote

Xino (2): Kas, Stick
Stick (2): Archer, Araris

I start rethinking E!Xino and swap to TUN, and indicate willingness to swap to Stick. Stick is now the lead train, but this is early on. Worth noting Turtle shows up in thread at this juncture, but doesn't really say much except that V!Szeth is interesting, and that V!Szeth might be TMI.

Noteworthy in light of Stick's V!Bookwyrm TMI and the fact Turtle doesn't look that way - also noteworthy in light Stick was pushing E!Szeth.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (2): Archer, Araris
TUN (1): Kas

Silho shows up and gives a readslist with Stick fairly high up, but also subsequently expresses willingness to vote Stick. Worth thinking about.

TUN shows up. Promissary note.

Xino shows up. Promissary note but nothing else.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (2): Archer, Araris
TUN (1): Kas

I swap off TUN and back to Xino again.

Quote

Xino (2): Stick, Kas
Stick (2): Archer, Araris

And then swap to TUN again. What can I say, it's difficult to decide. TUN subsequently opens the Archer train. That one way or another deserves attention IMO.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (2): Archer, Araris
TUN (1): Kas
Archer (1): TUN

Cash goes for Elk. Not sure how I feel about this; makes sense from Cash's view, but I wonder if the Elim team was also shopping for a CW at that point.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (2): Archer, Araris
TUN (1): Kas
Archer (1): TUN
Elk (1): Cash

I have Had It and move to Stick. One factor I didn't talk about but alluded to in thread at this point in terms of 'things I can't quite talk about' boiled down to my PM with Alv, our talking out potential Elims, and our worries of vote manip and small margins. And also...the fact that the Gods of Luck and Chance told Alv to go Stick over Xino, and like, this helped him catch E!Stick N1 in LG86 so I was intent on giving that quite a lot of leeway.  Even if it is not quite respectable to admit that in thread.

FWIW, I'm giving Alv Village credit for that too. He kept me anchored on Stick when I was doubting and overthinking. If a bus happened (as I do suspect is possible), I'm not locating it in Alv, especially since he could have let me doubt or nudged me to Archer or Xino.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (3): Archer, Araris, Kas
Archer (1): TUN
Elk (1): Cash

Silho votes Stick. FWIW, I feel this is a good look: I'm not sure the decision to bus Stick was made at this point in the Elim doc.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (4): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho
Archer (1): TUN
Elk (1): Cash

TUN asks for the reasons for E!Stick. Could be catching up, could be trying to slow-walk. Not sure. The fact TUN asked but didn't engage subsequently inclines me to lean slow-walk is more likely. 

JNV then votes Archer. I massively dislike this post and this more or less hardlocks me to Stick. I think I simply dislike how opportunistic it seemed: JNV was telling me in our PM previously that they were suspicious of Stick, only to 180 here. Furthermore, the post is framed as an <Archer, Stick> choice, with Elk and Xino not in play at all. JNV's analysis completely ignores Xino, FWIW, and considers Elk as potentially Evil, so why is it <Archer, Stick> only? It felt like bait to try to lure me back off Stick, given my expressed preferences.

Quote

Xino (1): Stick
Stick (4): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho
Archer (2): TUN, JNV
Elk (1): Cash

At this point, Stick self-presses on Archer. Note that this distance is potentially small enough to close with vote manip.

Quote

Stick (4): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho
Archer (3): TUN, JNV, Stick
Elk (1): Cash

Elk votes Xino at 1422hrs. Stick moved at 1341hrs. For this reason, I don't believe that Elk was intending to pack onto Xino with Stick, and anyway that'd look odd. I don't know what to make of Elk's indication of Stick as a suspect but vanity Xino vote with nearly half an hour to go to rollover. For this reason, I'm not quite sure if Elk gets Village credit for voting Stick upon being reminded that what he is doing will potentially generate a tie.

But alright, he does answer the call:

Quote

Stick (5): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho, Elk
Archer (3): TUN, JNV, Stick
Elk (1): Cash

I don't know how I feel about Stick trying Chantara. That feels kind of out of the blue, and unlikely to work. She needs at least two players to defect from the Stick train to even give her a chance of survival. This doesn't feel quite right, and part of me wonders if this is a choreographed Elim doc distancing thing. Particularly with Chantara actually showing up.

Having Stick as neither V nor E just feels a bit safe: too convenient if you show up with E Stick, and you can't explain voting on Stick if you V read her.

Quote

Stick (6): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho, Elk, Chantara
Archer (2): TUN, JNV
Elk (1): Cash
Chantara (1): Stick

Of the late Stick votes, I'm happiest with Alv's, as this was signalled/planned from earlier in the PM, with Alv's reasoning being that chasing a tie in this case disrespects the Gods of Luck and Chance since they'd already indicated Stick was naughty in their sight.

Stick swaps back to Archer. This doesn't count because it's late, but whatevs, can give her that.

Quote

Stick (7): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho, Elk, Chantara, Alv
Archer (3): TUN, JNV, Stick
Elk (1): Cash

My thoughts:

-Archer seems to be the favoured CW to Stick. Village points for that, as well as bringing Stick up in previous cycles.
-Village points to Araris for seconding without hesitation.
-Some Village points to Silho (but not too many) for kicking the train into gear. It felt a bit too early for a bus, and at this time of writing, Silho's last login time to the Shard was 6 hours ago. He also made that last post voting Stick 6 hours ago. E!Silho probably doesn't just leave that train slightly dominant and go sleep.
-Very light Village points to Insanity for mentioning a doc
-I'd like this to be exculpatory for Elk, but am not sure it really is. More on that later.
-Village points to Alv for talking me into staying put and reminding me of train margins.

I suppose it's worth my mentioning the other thing I couldn't talk about was my awareness that one of the Honorblades with the ability to manipulate votes might have been in play this cycle, and I wasn't sure it wasn't in hostile hands, which was why I was so focused on talking margins with Alv.

In the world where the bearer is Evil, then yeah I would suppose that this was definitely a bus because we didn't see vote manip getting used.

No further comments on this score.

-The main reason I am not sure it is exculpatory for Elk is Stick's mentioning Elk early, then defecting from that train D2. I do think it is plausible that Elk is the bus point. You could argue that Elk focusing on Xino rather than Stick is a good look, but I am not really sure I completely feel that. Need a D2 relook (on to that in a bit.)

-I am sorry to say this, but Tukari points to JNV for that post that I just negatively reacted to. Yeah, sorry, no two ways about that. I also strongly believe that in a world where Araris and Alv are both looking Village, Mat is low-efforting, and I'm active, there's only one reasonable explanation for the fact I still live, and that's E!JNV. I also noted (even in my notes!) that there's a JNV-sized blindspot in Stick's analysis of the D2 votes and I believe the best explanation is Stick overlooking a teammate.

Mapping those reads back into the votes for D1 and D2:

Day One: 

Spoiler

First vote is from me onto Stick. Nothing spectacular there.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas

Silho goes onto Mat next. Worth noting this vote will go on to be extraordinarily stable - it only goes off at EoD. Silho isn't interested in solving this cycle and felt no real sense of pressure. This, to me, stands out given that we know all of the final trains were Village! But I also lean V on Silho now. For this, I'm going to green Silho in all subsequent analyses, but want it to be known that I think this is a ? moment for Silho.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho

Two minutes later, Turtle doubles up the vote and apologises for it. The apology is a bit weird because that's not really the sort of thing people care about. Archer contends that's more V!Turtle. I think the defensiveness should be noted at the very least. Same issue with a player caring about image again.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (2): Silho, Turtle

Bookwyrm votes on Insanity. Wiz rolls a die and goes onto Chantara. Mat votes Archer, and Archer asks if Chantara wants to vote on Wiz with him. I generally like solicitation because of the confidence it displays. Despite the stability of Archer's vote, I'm comfortable with V!Archer for now. Green marker.

I'm vaguely comfortable with V!Insanity given the comfortable doc mention. In light of that, I'm going to green marker Insanity as well. Worth noting this isn't anywhere near as strong as Alv-Araris-Archer credences, or Silho credences. So if there is a place to revise, revise Insanity first.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (2): Silho, Turtle
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Archer (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer

Stick votes TUN because she saw him in the thread but noticed he hadn't yet posted. I feel it just reminds me of what Ash was doing in terms of checking for people who were maybe in docs early on instead of in the thread. So ok, keep an eye on TUN. Fair point from Illwei that it likely entails lurking Stick too.

Stick apparently has a Turtle/Mat E/E theory from this. I don't have a strong read on whether this is distancing or not so I am going to move on.

Turtle unvotes Mat. No replacement. I don't really expect anything by it. I think it's worth noting there are no further votes from Turtle I can think of except a brief hop onto the pizza train. I think this should also immediately merit Turtle's inclusion into the suspect pool. 

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Archer (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

Mat unvotes Archer.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Bookwyrm
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

Bookwyrm retracts from Insanity here. Not much comment: this starts Mat's suspicions of Bookwyrm, but Mat has since flipped Village, so there is no need for excessive commentary, but we should look at those who joined Mat, potentially.

Mat's response is to pressure Insanity.

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick

Araris shows up and votes Alv. I am comfortable with V!Araris at this point to not want to question this post he made.

 

Quote

Stick (1): Kas
Mat (1): Silho
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Araris
TUN (1): Stick

I unvote Stick and go to Mat. Sorry Mat >>

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Araris
TUN (1): Stick

Elk doubles up on Alv and insists on summoning Alv. This is something that continues later through the cycle, and Elk explains it as excitement to be playing with Alv again and wanting the chaos. I don't know.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (1): Stick

Szeth doubles up on TUN and asks why people are voting on Alv when Alv hasn't posted yet. Irony is blinding  We now know that V!Szeth just didn't care.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Kas
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth

Insanity responds with a retaliation vote on Mat. I feel we haven't heard much in the way of thoughts from Insanity, even now, and that this still doesn't really jive well with the more measured approach from her later on.

This is another vote worth noting because it never moved. Insanity did look at the thread subsequently.

I am currently okay with V!reading Insanity, but I do want to note this could be an issue later on and to revise if things get weird.

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Mat (3): Silho, Kas, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth
Araris (1): TUN

Elk points out the fact that Mat is a lead train. There's some amount of ? that Elk is even flagging this - it's still early in the cycle, so Elk shouldn't really have reason to feel too concerned at this juncture.

TUN votes Araris in defense of Alv. This IMO is an extremely uncharacteristic vote from TUN, who repeatedly defends voting only with good reasons because he'd rather be sure and hit an Elim than not. This is odd to me because this policy is something TUN also highlights later on! One thing I could see is it being a TUN joke vote. It sort of has that kind of attitude. Maybe. Even with TUN's new playstyle shift, I'm not sure this vote quite makes sense to me.

Elk also says he doesn't mind getting D1ed, which, ok, fair, I read in a slightly Village light similar to MR59 Conq, but also probably shouldn't, so I can degrade that credence a bit. Even then, I still like that I suppose. He looks at the train and decides the votes aren't suspicious, which makes me feel a bit ? because...shouldn't you have made that determination before calling out the train? Dislike this softwalking here.

Bookwyrm comes in again with a vote that is opportunistic as all hell, on Mat, at a point when there are three votes on Mat and when I have expressed suspicion of Mat and I nearly reflex-unvoted off how awful that vote just seemed to be. This starts the E!Bookwyrm problem that carries on all the way to D2 and at last we have peace. Praise the Light.

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Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Chantara (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (2): Araris, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Szeth
Araris (1): TUN

In response to that, JNV votes on Bookwyrm. It's a typical JNV vote, IMO, no matter their alignment. 

Elk agrees the Bookwyrm vote is suspicious but is currently committed to summoning Alv. Potential reluctance to vote Bookwyrm might be explained by awareness train is LHF IMO.

Szeth unvotes TUN.

Wiz agrees Bookwyrm seems off and votes Bookwyrm as well.

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

Since Mat is Village, and so is Bookwyrm, I'd argue that the Elims are avoiding Mat now, potentially just slotting onto side-trains. Araris goes from Alv to Bookwyrm.

On 11/22/2022 at 3:18 AM, Elkanah said:

 Not usually

I realize this thread is exploding like an egg in a microwave, but I'd really like to hear more about this. I don't think Mat suspecting people of working together is indicative of him being Tukari. I recognize that Kas has experience, other reasons, and a little trauma that support his suspicion; but do you have any support for this other than that Kas is suspicious of him? Please feel free to take the time you need to catch up on the thread, but I'm eager to know if there is more to this.

Being a bit blunt, this is the most suspicious post I've seen this game and there's not a lot in it. It feels like you were looking for an opportunity to be present in thread and solidify a lynch without being noticed. You are currently my top suspect and I might vote for you if we ever hear from Alvron. 

I don't disagree with what Mat was doing here. I also see this as odd, and yeah I know I've flagged it before and you've responded, Elk, but I am currently doing a re-read and just dumping thoughts as this goes along. Hesitancy to vote top suspect over desire to hear from Alv is just odd. It's more pronounced by the fact that Elk was away for a while and therefore never touched the Bookwyrm train until the end. This feels a bit explainable by TMI and awareness that this will look very bad when Bookwyrm flips Village. Bookwyrm in my view is only either extremely obviously Evil or lynchbait - no in between about it.

Xino shows up and votes Bookwyrm:

Quote

Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
Alv (1): Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino

Araris later flags this as odd. I think it's worth calling out because this spurs Elk to follow Xino onto Bookwyrm: he shifts off Alv to save Mat, voting Bookwyrm. Except...this isn't even anywhere near the halfway mark. Why the urgency? And why such a strong read early?

This is actually really weird no matter what, because there is just no real incentive for E!Xino to do this: Mat is the lead train, and Bookwyrm is a train that doesn't look that great. --> FLAGGED; KAS, RE-READ THIS AND RETHINK. [Potential TUN-Xino team?]

And Araris then confuses Xino for Mat.

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Mat (4): Silho, Kas, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk

This gives Bookwyrm a five vote monopoly. On a Villager. I am not sure the train at that juncture is reasonably pure. But I also can't really see Xino and Elk deliberately stacking onto Bookwyrm like this, when the two lead trains are Village anyway. Looks better for Elk than Xino I think.

I unvote Mat because I believe he's back to ascribing bad things to my being unwilling to give my reasons upfront, and I see that as more likely to come from V!Mat.

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (1): Archer
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Xino, Elk

Xino then decides he wants another train, and hops from Bookwyrm to Wiz. This theoretically keeps Mat safe, and was meant to put more pressure on Wiz. @Ookla the Forgotten, you say you wanted to pressure Wiz. What about him did you feel was sus?

Quote

Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (2): Archer, Xino
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk

@Araris Valerian, you mentioned your thoughts on Elims sometimes jumping onto a teammate's train to explode it in order to scare people off. I am curious as to your thoughts on the sudden surge and just as sudden deflation of the Bookwyrm train. [N3 - Still curious.]

Elk returns to his obsession with summoning Alv  A quick step off Bookwyrm and onto Wiz. Three way tie more important than saving Mat, I guess. I don't know if this feels right: this puts Elk on two bad trains, IMO. And has him follow Xino twice now, for no apparent reason.

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Mat (3): Silho, Insanity, Bookwyrm
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

Elk still flagging the two votes on Mat as weird is just...weird in and of itself. Put this in context: early in D1, Elk flags a train on Mat as 'interesting' and doesn't really look into it, looks and then expects it to dissolve, and then gets suspicious when it doesn't dissolve but also feels the votes are not especially indicative. I don't know if this is a meta clash, or if this is Elk trying to fish for suspicions and returning to the Mat train. I say this despite also thinking vote stability is odd on Silho's and Insanity's parts, so I know that's odd. I just sort of feel that Elk has two main things he's fixed on at this point in the game: Mat train and making Alv appear, and cuts Bookwyrm quite a bit of ice. Which I do approve of, I just feel ehhhhh about it.

I guess I would say I'm not suspicious because I expect it to dissolve - I'm suspicious because I expect there to be at least a few parked votes. IDK man maybe I'm just overthinking this and I should stick with V!Elk. Ffs.

Bookwyrm replies and unvotes Mat.

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Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris

Elk declines to vote Bookwyrm off one sketchy post, which, ok, but also...D1. But he did want to hear Bookwyrm out, which fair, but you can sort of do that with a retractable vote as well. I don't feel this leans very strongly one way or another, but this is just me thinking that marked reluctance to vote Bookwyrm is still suspicious, either way you slice it.

I vote for Chantara instead, who I've seen lurking. By this point, Bookwyrm in a tie with Wiz. Notable that both Bookwyrm and Wiz are Villagers, meaning the Elims should not be facing very much pressure at this juncture.

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Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Chantara (1): Kas

Archer posts indicating willingness to vote for Xino but doesn't actually vote for Xino.

Araris agrees to vote Xino and swaps off Bookwyrm.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Araris (1): TUN
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris

This begins a temporary dissolution of the Bookwyrm train.

TUN unvotes Araris for moving off Alv.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris

Illwei votes Alv on the basis of his Chana Elk deal.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (1): Stick
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

Still maintain that Illwei cannot deal with Chaos!Silho but I agree that Silho was not being productively chaotic D1.

Chantara votes for TUN because she feels the thread PMs might be a way for the Elims to redirect suspicion. Which...sort of yes, but that's why Illwei was hypothesising E!Silho? And it's odd in light of the fact the Silho/Turtle thread PMs were what was attracting attention in the first place. She cites difficulty keeping up with the thread subsequently. I feel your pain, Chantara, I really do. But given all three lead trains up to this point were Village, I feel this is a place/candidate for Elim dgaf energy - appear engaged, but not actually have to place a vote on a lethal Villager-targeting train. I also sort of wonder if she ignores it to avoid directing attention to Turtle.

A point in Chantara's favour might be the fact that it makes the train a two-vote train, but eh. Still not lethal.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Chantara (1): Kas
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

I shift from Chantara to joining the three vote train on Wiz. RIP. Szeth sheeps me six minutes later onto Wiz.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei

I argued it looked good for Szeth. I sit vindicated.

TUN votes Szeth for sheeping. I don't have a particular read on this: it's an easy call to make. Maybe a bit negative because in context, that's more Village for Szeth.

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Insanity (1): Mat
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (2): JNV, Wiz
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei
Szeth (1): TUN

Mat goes onto Bookwyrm.

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Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (5): Archer, Xino, Elk, Kas, Szeth
TUN (2): Stick, Chantara
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (1): Illwei
Szeth (1): TUN

This was apparently bait for Elk. Again, our lead trains are still Village.

I shift from Wiz to Alv. Shortly after, Stick joins the Szeth train for that early TUN vote.

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Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (4): Archer, Xino, Elk, Szeth
TUN (1): Chantara
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Kas
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

And I am still only on p9 of this Almighty-forsaken thread. Every day takes us further from God. I wander in a wasteland of barren boughs and broken stones. If I touch them, they bleed. Is it that I am dying?

Szeth unvotes Wiz, and Chantara unvotes TUN. I feel like the quality of my analysis is degrading at this point and I haven't even highlighted the votes yet.

 

 

Quote

Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Kas
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Bookwyrm and Wiz are back in the lead as ties. Cash subsequently also decides he likes ties and goes onto Alv. It's worth noting IMO that since Wiz and Bookwyrm are both Village, I do think that it looks better that Cash didn't go full side-train, but not entirely so. In an E!Cash world, it's more or less guaranteed V!Alv. The stability of Cash's vote sticks out to me as well.

This is exacerbated because we now know that Mat is also Village.

Anyway, vc at this point:

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Mat (2): Silho, Insanity
Wiz (3): Archer, Xino, Elk
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (3): Illwei, Kas, Cash
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick

Three way tie.

This post from TUN strikes me as odd: he says he's willing to vote if there are good reasons, but uh...the reasons this game aren't actually better than those of other D1s. TUN's two votes have been for sheeping or for trying to kill Alv. The latter's not substantively better, and the former is probably qualitatively the same as any D1 vote. I'm not sure how TUN is fine with this since he usually keeps saying he'd rather get things right than deal with uncertainty. I don't know. I agree that he's definitely more willing to vote, and generally feel he has had to lower his standards at least partially.

Szeth has a crack theory I'm Evil, and I encourage Szeth to vote for me. That's about it. Explained it, don't want to relitigate this.

Turtle temporarily votes me for the pizza and then retracts. I've mentioned that I feel Turtle's lobbying not to get me lynched is just kinda performative because Turtle can easily influence that by breaking the tie but doesn't want to. I solicit Alv onto the pizza train for more pizza.

Archer votes Szeth for tie-chasing. Which, ok, fair. Tani RNGed and voted Wiz. Four way tie. 

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Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Mat
Xino (1): Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Silho unvotes Mat, but doesn't do anything else. In light of the fact that at least 3/4 of the lead trains (from my perspective) were Village, that's a remarkable amount of potentially Elim dgaf energy there in my view. But I've made my views on V!Silho clear at the moment.

Araris breaks the tie. IMO, this is mildly positive: it violates E!Araris's doctrine. I don't know if E!Araris cares enough to break the tie - I feel like there's an argument that he just might, out of principle, but I also feel that he gains very little from it. I am squinting but mildly willing to ascribe a bit of V points to Araris for this.

...Or I'm desperate and just want my fellow Grumpy Bro to be Village, what can I say, sometimes life do be like that.

Quote

Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Mat, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Stick, Archer
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Mat swaps off Bookwyrm to Szeth, mentioning it was partly bait for Elk, and also that he'd take an Elk or Cash wagon. 

Quote

Mat (1): Insanity
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

This puts Szeth solidly in the lead. Given that our four lead trains are all Village, I expect few major vote movements to come from Elims.

Chantara declines to get involved, so votes Mat. Feels potentially like a vote radiating Elim dgaf energy to me as well.

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (3): Xino, Elk, Tani
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (3): Szeth, Kas, Alv

Szeth preserves a tie but also self-preses onto Wiz. Szeth is Village so this doesn't matter.

 

This gets us:

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Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (3): JNV, Wiz, Araris
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (2): Kas, Alv

Alv votes Bookwyrm in order to force a three way tie. Anyone who knew Alv was playing this game should have seen this coming.

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

One minute later, Elk votes on Bookwyrm as well, and unvotes Wiz, which Alv moves to counter. I will say that being willing to vote Bookwyrm here is a good look for Elk, since potentially a Bookwyrm flip would look awful for Elk. This is half-taken back by non-indicative tie chasing.

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Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (3): Xino, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (5): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv, Elk
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Which means:

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Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Alv
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Elk
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Basically the scene in Revenge of the Sith where Obi-Wan and Anakin exchange lightsabers while grappling and fight with each other's blades for a bit.

K, frankly I'm not going to track the last few moves, it's Elk and Alv hopping to and fro trying to preserve the tie. It's interesting to me that Elk's commitment to his biggest suspect, Bookwyrm, never really stays and he prefers the tie in the end.

Stick votes Wiz and ensures the exe goes through. Final trains:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas

Given the rampant disorganisation between Elk/Alv/Stick, I'd potentially argue at least the three of them are not teamed, which is not very helpful, but there you go. Probably trivially true since I V!read Alv and Stick flipped Evil. Jury's out on Elk.

I think it is worth also looking at the list of non-voters: <Turtle, Silho, Bookwyrm> - we now know Bookwyrm is Village. I wouldn't be too surprised if one of <Turtle, Silho> is Evil due to low Elim investment in D1 EoD, but that seems to indicate that it is highly unlikely the trains were pure. So we can go back and look at the trains to try to ID where our Elims are. I think Silho is V so am left with Turtle on this front. But first, on to D2.

Day Two:

Spoiler

Stick opens the voting on Elk. I don't disagree with this take, FWIW. Some of the issues with Elk bother me as well. I vote Szeth to branch out and keep voting broad, rather than doubling up on Elk, despite also being fine with an Elk lynch. Archer votes TUN.

Quote

Elk (1): Stick
Szeth (1): Kas
TUN (1): Archer

Meanwhile, Araris votes Bookwyrm. And Bookwyrm joins Stick on Elk, booting Elk to lead train.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (1): Kas
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris

Szeth votes for Mat. And then TUN votes Szeth because:

On 11/25/2022 at 10:21 AM, Ookla the Unknown said:

None of my reasons for voting Szeth have been resolved, and there have been several more to increase my suspicion, so I put my vote on him. And the thread felt too quiet, so I voted to hopefully generate some activity. Although now that I look at it, it isn't too bad, but my first point still stands.

Explained here:

On 11/26/2022 at 1:58 AM, Ookla the Unknown said:

@Kasimir, here's the reasons you asked for.

My initial reason for my Szeth vote was him blatantly sheeping you, which now that I think of it is really blatant for an elim, but then his withdrawal and subsequent excuse seemed contrived. 

Then his posts, especially his first few, n1 rubbed me the wrong way. I also happen to agree with Mat that his self vote feels odd to me, but I can't really fault a person for self voting. But then him asking if I was offering food was weird as well, like he thought that copying you would make him seem more villagery.

This ties Szeth with Elk. If Elk is E, worth coming back to.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): Kas, TUN
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris
Mat (1): Szeth

Szeth is bribed into self-voting. I shift to Xino, because I think I want to pressure Xino. I expect part of this was related to the backreading I did and noticing Xino lurking in thread.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): TUN, Szeth
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (1): Araris
Xino (1): Kas

JNV votes Bookwyrm. IMO, I wouldn't E!read JNV for this insofar as I feel JNV has a tendency to get caught on these sorts of players. More NAI for me at this juncture. The Bookwyrm train is introduced into the three-way tie.

Quote

Elk (2): Stick, Bookwyrm
Szeth (2): TUN, Szeth
TUN (1): Archer
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Xino (1): Kas

Because Elk is MIA apparently, Stick swaps to making Szeth the lead train. My brain wants to consider an Elk/Stick E/E world and finds it mildly possible if weird in light of EoD D1 - but Elk and Alv definitely not teamed at least. Mat then votes TUN. Because Stick never really quite endangers Elk where it counts.

Potential saving vote on Elk from JNV. Worth keeping in mind Stick's apparent JNV-sized blindspot. -> This matters in light of early D3 where Stick argues that Araris's incredibly stable Bookwyrm vote points to E/E with Elk because it keeps Elk safe, but JNV has that incredibly stable Bookwyrm vote as well but...just doesn't show up on Stick's radar. IMO, that doesn't look that great for JNV.

Quote

Elk (1): Bookwyrm
Szeth (3): TUN, Szeth, Stick
TUN (2): Archer, Mat
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Xino (1): Kas

Probably sensing danger, Szeth swaps off himself and goes onto Elk.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
TUN (2): Archer, Mat
Bookwyrm (2): Araris, JNV
Xino (1): Kas

A four way tie ensues. We now know at least half of those in the tie are Village.

Archer swaps from TUN to Stick. Which Mat sheeps >> Turtle then votes Bookwyrm, booting Bookwyrm to lead train. Noteworthy if Stick flips E, I think. But also potentially protective of Elk. --> I think this is something to pay attention to again now that Stick has flipped E: Turtle's vote comes at a great time. This is noteworthy because Turtle's views on Bookwyrm shifted, and Turtle doesn't always actually really care to vote (D1, D3) so the times Turtle does IMO should stick out. And both Elk and Stick were two vote trains at that point.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (3): Araris, JNV, Turtle
Xino (1): Kas
Stick (2): Archer, Mat

Shortly after, Cash goes onto Bookwyrm, stacking the train. Here, I will agree this is a good look - E!Cash has no real reason to go on this train. It's subdued because as a newer player, Cash can expect some leniency for jumping onto a LHF train. Between JNV and Turtle and Cash, as I don't expect the Bookwyrm train to be almost entirely Elims except Araris, I think the Cash vote looks more innocent. That being said, in a world where JNV flips Village for instance, I'd definitely look at Cash.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (1): Kas
Stick (2): Archer, Mat

Mat swaps to Araris, after Archer suggests it. Archer joins him. Same difference.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (1): Kas
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Insanity shows up and sheeps me onto Xino. Feels like the territory for a dgaf vote again. But I currently lean V!Insanity.

Quote

Elk (2): Bookwyrm, Szeth
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

I am not sure about how I feel on Xino's vote on Elk. It also doesn't really grab attention, and is a side-train, which seems a tad opportunistic, given Elk largely followed Xino on earlier votes.

As @Ookla the Paragrapher noted, not voting Bookwyrm is mildly interesting as a life decision. Might indicate that Xino figured this would maximise his chances of survival. Not sure. Feels mildly as though an E/E Elk and Xino world would be weird.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (2): Mat, Archer

Mat moves to seal the Bookwyrm train against interference. It's fine, I just couldn't make myself do it.

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (5): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash, Mat
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (1): Archer

This is the end train. No vote manip. Let's take a look at who didn't vote: <Elk, Silho, Chantara, Alv, Tani.>

Again, I think it's plausible that at least one Elim is in this pool. Too little at stake, with the Bookwyrm train. Xino's Elk vote comes very late, which suggests that Elk isn't exactly exonerated.

Analysis:

I think we can get a better look at train dispersion now with some of the likely alignments:

Day One A:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (4): Xino, Elk, Tani, Szeth
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (4): TUN, Stick, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas
No Vote (3): Silho, Turtle, Bookwyrm

Day One A takes place prior to the tie-chasing.

Day One B:

Quote

Mat (2): Insanity, Chantara
Wiz (5): Xino, Tani, Szeth, Elk, Stick
Bookwyrm (4): JNV, Wiz, Araris, Alv
Alv (2): Illwei, Cash
Szeth (3): TUN, Archer, Mat
Kas (1): Kas
No Vote (3): Silho, Turtle, Bookwyrm

Day One B takes place after the rabid tie-chasing, at EoD.

On the assumption we find no more than two Elims on a train, at most one more of <Xino, Tani, Elk> is Evil. TUN is likely Evil, and Turtle does look pretty Evil. I do think JNV is Evil. I am currently leaning E!Xino and maybe E!TUN - explains Stick's willingness to move off the Szeth train.

Day Two:

Quote

Elk (3): Bookwyrm, Szeth, Xino
Szeth (2): TUN, Stick
Bookwyrm (5): Araris, JNV, Turtle, Cash, Mat
Xino (2): Kas, Insanity
Araris (1): Archer
No Vote (4): Elk, Chantara, Tani, Silho

The reason I don't mention E!Cash is I think Turtle's move to Bookwyrm looks worse than Cash's. The dgaf parking from Cash today also inclines me to think V!Cash, I suppose because it just feels like it takes guts to sit out a bus when one is clearly happening. Not sure. I also don't expect three Elims on the Bookwyrm train. Two is quite enough.

TUN and Stick once again nearly resting on the same train does make me wonder if they are Evil together.

Day Three:

Attempted EoD:

Quote

Stick (7): Archer, Araris, Kas, Silho, Elk, Chantara, Alv
Archer (3): TUN, JNV, Stick
Elk (1): Cash
No Vote (4): Turtle, Tani, Xino, Insanity

I'd probably go JNV next, and potentially Turtle. Not sure about Xino, but Xino's disengagement from this game continues to make me hesitate on V!reading him. It's the two nickels thing - when Xino's disengaged, he may still be Village but when he's Evil, he's disengaged.

Edited to add #3:

I'm fundamentally extremely unfond of the assumption the scanner has to be Village just because Shalash flipped Evil. This is the sort of assumption that feels like Beaglegate begging to happen, and I'm the guy who is still on V!Chana but paranoiding about E!Chana. Target scanner with Stormlight limitations in a V!Chana world with Shaman feels a bit weaker, and starting E!Jez just fundamentally makes it a troll distro. Sometimes troll distros happen. Sometimes the GM gives the Elim team a Smoker even though they also have the only Seeker.

FWIW, Jez targeted TUN N1 and Silho N2. No results in both cases.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Kasimir

[Turtle]

yayyyyyy we have a red flip and i finished most of that essay horrayyyyy

wagonomics coming soon! my doc for this game is sadly empty so i’m gonna be working in there

[Shining Silhouette]

24 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

my doc for this game

Was this an admission????

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ookla the Debonair
spelling

[Turtle]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Debonair said:

Was this an admission????

smh i’m not sharing my doc w anyone :p.

it’s my doc elims don’t get to have it

im just special like that

[Shining Silhouette]

15 minutes ago, ookla the POKE VOTE said:

smh i’m not sharing my doc w anyone :p.

it’s my doc elims don’t get to have it

im just special like that

Hmmmmmmm